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View Full Version : Player Pairs Analysis - Mar. 10, 2015



rasuo214
03-11-2015, 12:39 AM
timvp used to do this so I figured I'd step in since he stopped. My analysis won't be anywhere near as in depth but better than nothing.

Description for those that don't already know what numbers are all about:

These Player Pairs statistics take a look at how the Spurs perform when various possible tandems are on the court at the same time. The numbers in the cells correspond to the tandem comprised of the name in the column and the name in the row. For example, as you can see below, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 5.9 points per 100 possessions when Duncan is on the court with Green.

Players are listed by minutes played this season and this does not include tonight's Toronto game.

Green: The player in the column improved the impact of the player in the row.
Red: The player in the column worsened the impact of the player in the row.
Blue: The player in the column had neither a positive or negative impact on the player in the row.


http://i.imgur.com/9erTQhe.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/GA83WTL.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/l00BU2T.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/BRv8K5A.jpg


Difference between Point differential and Net Pairing. In the first Chart we seen Green improves everyone, so why does he have some negative net pairings? Basically the difference is in Point differential if the points per 100 possession is higher than his paired teammate then Green is having a positive impact (examples: Duncan is +3.7 with Green Duncan is +5.9, Diaw is +3.1 with Green Duncan is +5.4 etc.)

In Net Pairing it looks at the impact that both players have on one another, so while Green's teammates play better with him on the floor, Green doesn't necessarily play better in certain pairings (Duncan, Diaw, Parker, Belinelli, Bonner, Splitter). So Net Pairing looks at whether the pairing is a net positive or negative.

Example: Green and Duncan, Green has a positive impact on Duncan but Duncan has a negative impact on Green. Combined they are still a net positive by +1.9 points per 100 possessions, individually Green is +6.2 and Duncan is +3.7, so combined you would expect at least +9.9 (6.2+3.7). Green with Duncan is a +5.9 (so while this is lower than Green's +6.2) combined Green and Duncan are a +11.8 (5.9+5.9) which is 1.9 points more than their combined individual base (11.8-9.9).

Best Pairs:
- Kawhi and Marco - This is probably a bit surprising, Kawhi now only helps Marco on the defensive end (+4.7) but also on the offensive end (+7.8) for a combined +12.5. Marco also helps Kawhi offensively (+7.0) and while Marco does have a negative impact on defense (-4.1) he still has an overall net positive impact on Kawhi (+2.9)
- Patty and anyone - Now limited minutes may be a big reason why but it is still impressive to see the positive impact Patty can have. What I find most interesting is how well he does with the other PGs (Parker and Joseph).
- Splitter and Baynes or Bonner - If you want offense, then these are the 2 pairs that'll do the trick. Splitter the offensive machine with the top 2 offensive pairs (118.2 with Bonner, 116.1 with Baynes) and the most points per 100 possessions with 108.8.

Pop please stop playing these guys together:
- Belinelli and Splitter - Not only are they a defensive disaster (114.9) but they also aren't very good on offensive (99.8)
- Bonner and Diaw - You would probably think defense was the biggest issue with this pair (they aren't good), but they are the worst offensive pair on the team (93.2)

Underrated:
- Danny Green - Played the most minutes on the team and he has a positive impact with all of his teammates, can you ask for anything more. With all the big names getting a lot of the attention, Danny deserves some as well.
- Aron Baynes - He has come a long way from getting only garbage time minutes, it's nice to see him step up, especially on the defensive end.

Offensive Stars: Splitter, Manu, and Kawhi
Defensive Stars: Patty, Kawhi and Baynes

- Tony Parker - All that red for Tony looks bad, but he is getting better. I did a similar analysis about a month ago and Parker was -1.6 per 100 possessions, (105.2 scored 106.8 allowed). A month later he is now a net positive with a +1.0 improving in both offense (+1.5) and defense (+1.1). Lets hope Parker continues to.... Ascend. :lol
- Marco Belinelli - Still a negative impact but like Parker he has improved from a month ago, mostly from the defensive end improving from an awful 110.3 points allowed to a still bad 108.4. Still it is nice to see some improvement.

Malik Hairston
03-11-2015, 12:48 AM
Great post, tbh..

Nothing too surprising, the Parker/Belinelli duo is something most people here have been complaining about for 2 years..

Love seeing the effectiveness of Ginobili/Leonard/Green together in any 2-man combo, too..

spurraider21
03-11-2015, 12:57 AM
according to this, mills has a better defensive impact than offensive

terrific post altogether though :tu

FkLA
03-11-2015, 01:01 AM
So much red from two particular players smh.

ElNono
03-11-2015, 01:02 AM
Good stuff, thanks for taking the time. :tu

Pretty amazing how productive Gino still is at 37. Even if you can tell his defense is not what it used to be, he's still far from a liability. A rarity for old guards.

A lot of this seem to pass the eye test too... Tim has been good on defense, but has struggled a bit on offense. Boris has struggled all year long, Baynes has come around. Splitter's D is not up to par to last season's standard.

Stuff the Spurs will have to improve upon before the season is over.

apalisoc_9
03-11-2015, 01:03 AM
So much red from two particular players smh.

loveforthegame
03-11-2015, 01:05 AM
Good read. Thanks. :tu

Robz4000
03-11-2015, 01:08 AM
Good write up, thanks :Tu

Great to see everyone coming around. Time to see if it's legit or the product of an easy part of the schedule.

MI21
03-11-2015, 01:22 AM
Good stuff, thanks for taking the time. :tu

Pretty amazing how productive Gino still is at 37. Even if you can tell his defense is not what it used to be, he's still far from a liability. A rarity for old guards.

A lot of this seem to pass the eye test too... Tim has been good on defense, but has struggled a bit on offense. Boris has struggled all year long, Baynes has come around. Splitter's D is not up to par to last season's standard.

Stuff the Spurs will have to improve upon before the season is over.

Agreed on Ginobili. I would never have dreamt his game would age this well. Sure, there are nights where he won't even try get in the lane and takes to many shortcuts, but players much younger than him have those nights too. When he really wants to and forces the issues he can still get to the hoop at will, especially when he is catching on the move. Really impressed with his season tbh

Silver&Black
03-11-2015, 01:53 AM
:tu Thanks OP. Great read...and thanks for putting in the time.

:flag:

FuzzyLumpkins
03-11-2015, 02:21 AM
They need to let Baynes start shooting 3's rather than bring in Bonner I said.

romain.star
03-11-2015, 07:23 AM
Great input. Thanx man.

Given his injuries history, I never thought Manu would be such an amazing 37 years old guard. Shouldn't have question the terms of his current contract...

Already been documentated but yeah that French combo is having a horrendous season so far.

unleashbaynes
03-11-2015, 07:52 AM
Awesome post OP, I've been wanting to see one of these.

looks like Danny actually plays better with the bench?

parker/diaw pairing is awful defensively, no surprise there....

Joseph should get more minutes with manu on the floor.

Uriel
03-11-2015, 07:56 AM
:cry I miss timvp :cry

BillMc
03-11-2015, 08:01 AM
Really great writeup OP.
:toast

Stuff like this is why we come to Spurstalk.

Really surprised how much red there is in Timmy's column and how much green in Patty's. Interesting,

Raven
03-11-2015, 08:17 AM
what i read from that, is that green makes everyone better and belinelli makes everyone a lot worse. he is also the only palyer on the roster with an all around negative impact which is quite a feat considering it's a team based stat.
The Cancer

Chinook
03-11-2015, 09:16 AM
I'd like to revisit these pairings in a few weeks. I'm sure they'll look even better now that everyone is healthy.

Great thread, though. We need more of this on this site.

Dex
03-11-2015, 10:11 AM
Man, the Frenchies are stinking up that chart.

Thanks for posting. :tu

rasuo214
03-11-2015, 05:14 PM
I'd like to revisit these pairings in a few weeks. I'm sure they'll look even better now that everyone is healthy.

Great thread, though. We need more of this on this site.

If I have the time I may do it again at the end of the season.

cantthinkofanything
03-11-2015, 05:44 PM
So much red from two particular players smh.It looks like they should play The two Parkers and it would at least be neutral.

Mr Bones
03-11-2015, 05:55 PM
:tu Nice post.

cantthinkofanything
03-11-2015, 06:24 PM
:tu Nice post.

Thanks. I fancy myself as a part time analyst.

Dex
03-11-2015, 08:42 PM
Bump because people need to appreciate actual content on this site.

Boomersgold
03-11-2015, 10:48 PM
Thanks for the write up man! Where did you get these stats from?

gospursgojas
03-11-2015, 10:53 PM
What ST used to be...great job RTB.

Very insightyful info.

rasuo214
03-12-2015, 12:07 AM
Thanks for the write up man! Where did you get these stats from?

basketball-reference

rasuo214
03-12-2015, 12:10 AM
Awesome post OP, I've been wanting to see one of these.

looks like Danny actually plays better with the bench?

parker/diaw pairing is awful defensively, no surprise there....

Joseph should get more minutes with manu on the floor.

Thanks, your post in the Kawhi thread was what inspired me to do it.

Juggity
03-12-2015, 12:22 AM
timvp-level quality. Excellent post. :tu

Kind of shocking to see Splitter's [lack of] defensive impact so far this season. I wasn't getting the impression that his defense had declined so much. Interesting.

unleashbaynes
03-12-2015, 12:42 AM
Splitter/Duncan combo is a red....

Pocho La Pantera
03-12-2015, 12:59 PM
Interesting, Thanks.

Johnny RIngo
03-12-2015, 04:06 PM
timvp-level quality. Excellent post. :tu

Kind of shocking to see Splitter's [lack of] defensive impact so far this season. I wasn't getting the impression that his defense had declined so much. Interesting.

Started the season injured and has looked fatigued all year. International basketball playing for Brazil likely taking it's toll. His defense has looked better recently. Offense still looks shitty but he has time to pick it up before playoffs.

benstanfield
03-12-2015, 04:20 PM
:tu

I've said it before, we really need to figure out a way to play a lineup with Manu, Green, and Kawhi on the floor together. Whether that means Manu at PG or Kawhi at PF is tricky, but they are by far our best wings and consistently make the rest of the team better. What's reassuring is that our biggest competitor in the West, the Warriors, would actually make this pretty easy because they almost never play an actual PF.

Malik Hairston
03-12-2015, 04:27 PM
:tu

I've said it before, we really need to figure out a way to play a lineup with Manu, Green, and Kawhi on the floor together. Whether that means Manu at PG or Kawhi at PF is tricky, but they are by far our best wings and consistently make the rest of the team better. What's reassuring is that our biggest competitor in the West, the Warriors, would actually make this pretty easy because they almost never play an actual PF.

As I've been saying all year, the Spurs are probably the only team in the West that matches up well with the Warriors IMO..

Maybe the Clippers if everything goes well, too..

I keep hearing Memphis because they can punish them down low, but I just don't see it, tbh..

Cry Havoc
03-12-2015, 04:41 PM
timvp-level quality. Excellent post. :tu

Kind of shocking to see Splitter's [lack of] defensive impact so far this season. I wasn't getting the impression that his defense had declined so much. Interesting.

I don't think he's declined, he's just not 100% healthy and in shape yet. His defense has been MUCH better as of late.

benstanfield
03-12-2015, 06:52 PM
As I've been saying all year, the Spurs are probably the only team in the West that matches up well with the Warriors IMO..

Maybe the Clippers if everything goes well, too..

I keep hearing Memphis because they can punish them down low, but I just don't see it, tbh..

The biggest question against the Warriors would be who we could hide Parker on, if anyone. Seems like Barnes has a more developed post game than Green, but I could see Pop trying either. Whether Pop elects to double Curry and make the others beat us, or D everyone up and turn Curry into a pure scorer would probably be the defining factor in the series. I prefer the latter tbh, their offense is too good now to leave people open consistently.

timtonymanu
03-12-2015, 11:53 PM
Keep that Parker/Beli duo off the fucking court.

Boomersgold
03-13-2015, 06:44 AM
The Spurs don't perform well when Kawhi plays minutes with the bench. I'd prefer it if Pop just used the usual Beli, Manu, Patty, Baynes, Splitter lineup.