National Hurricane Center Has been Spot On

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Before the summer started, they actually predicted that the area of highest concern was from La. to Alabama for the summer months.

Two storms into the area, looks pretty accurate.

Now they are shifting their predictions to the east coast, and predicting with a high confidence level that a storm will go into the Carolinas before this storm season is over.

They also think that Florida and Texas have a "moderate chance" of getting a storm in the next two months.

Given their accuracy the last year and a half, this isn't good news.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, the way the pattern is setting up, that sounds about right. The east coast usually gets more of the later season storms due to troughs that start digging in at the begining of fall.

[Trainwreck2100]

Actually they were kind of crappy with Katrina. They did not think it would hit Fl as a hurricane, it did. They didn't think when it left Florida it would turn to La it did. They thought for sure the eye would hit NO, at the last second it turns. Moral of the story NHC was Katrina's bitch.

[Vashner]

Except they need to do it like this

GET THE FUCK OUT in big giant letters next time on TV...

haha (sorry it was so funny I could not resist)

[MannyIsGod]

Actually they were kind of crappy with Katrina. They did not think it would hit Fl as a hurricane, it did. They didn't think when it left Florida it would turn to La it did. They thought for sure the eye would hit NO, at the last second it turns. Moral of the story NHC was Katrina's bitch.
Oh thats bullshit. The NHC has done very well in all of the hurricane forcasts this year. If you want them to tell you a week ahead of time you're better off calling Miss Cleo. They gave NO a 60 hour forcast, and that is damn good as far as hurricanes go.

[Trainwreck2100]

Oh thats bullshit. The NHC has done very well in all of the hurricane forcasts this year. If you want them to tell you a week ahead of time you're better off calling Miss Cleo. They gave NO a 60 hour forcast, and that is damn good as far as hurricanes go.

They didn't forecast the eye's landing, they didn't forecast Katrina becoming a cat 1 when it hit FL and killed nine people.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

They thought for sure the eye would hit NO, at the last second it turns. Moral of the story NHC was Katrina's bitch.

What?

They told NO to get out on Friday, it hit on Monday, NO had about 80 hours lead time, but it still took Max Mayfield (Director of the NHS) calling Nagin on Saturday night begging for him to get everyone out to make it happen.

As for NHC being Katrina's "bitch", they were 15 miles off on their prediction of landfall. When a storm is 300 miles wide, I'd say that's pretty damn accurate.

[MannyIsGod]

They didn't forecast the eye's landing, they didn't forecast Katrina becoming a cat 1 when it hit FL and killed nine people.
Do you realize that the line between a Catagory 1 and a strong tropical storm is 1 mph? That is the difference you are using to distingush good and bad forcasting.

It is impossible to pinpoint an eye landing. That is why they have the cone of reasonable uncertainty on eveyr single forcast.

Yeah, you're wanting miracles and the NHC isn't going to be the best place to look for those.

[Trainwreck2100]

Do you realize that the line between a Catagory 1 and a strong tropical storm is 1 mph? That is the difference you are using to distingush good and bad forcasting.

It is impossible to pinpoint an eye landing. That is why they have the cone of reasonable uncertainty on eveyr single forcast.

Yeah, you're wanting miracles and the NHC isn't going to be the best place to look for those.

And that cone of uncertainty is what kept people from leaving, and what probably kept the mayor from evacuating.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

You don't think being within 15 miles of the eye's landing is accurate enough?

Jesus Christ, our weather get the weather right about 15% of the time, the NHC was within 15 miles. And with a hurricane like this, 15 miles don't really matter jack shit.

[MannyIsGod]

And that cone of uncertainty is what kept people from leaving, and what probably kept the mayor from evacuating.
And that is fucking stupid. If the NHC center says leave, you fucking leave. But you saying they didn't do well is absolute shit. The forcasts this year have been very accurate and far more accurate than any other point in human history.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

And that cone of uncertainty is what kept people from leaving, and what probably kept the mayor from evacuating.

You're a fucking idiot. NHC told everyone to get out Friday morning. Mayor dicked around until Sunday 7 AM, but only after the director of the NHC called him personally and said "a lot of people are going to die unless you pull your fucking head out."

Trainwreck, sometimes it's better to walk away from a losing argument. This is one of those times.

[Trainwreck2100]

You're a fucking idiot. NHC told everyone to get out Friday morning. Mayor dicked around until Sunday 7 AM, but only after the director of the NHC called him personally and said "a lot of people are going to die unless you pull your fucking head out."

Trainwreck, sometimes it's better to walk away from a losing argument. This is one of those times.

Friday morning????
9am
KATRINA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

11 am

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



2 pm
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.

11pm
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

NO os noticibly absent
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public.015.shtml?
final report on friday, no mention of land


48 hours before cane
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

25.3N 87.6W 42 X X X 42 NEW ORLEANS LA X 3 13 3 19
26.7N 89.0W 17 12 X X 29 NEW IBERIA LA X 1 12 5 18
28.6N 89.9W X 15 7 1 23 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 7 7 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X 6 6 12
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4 FREEPORT TX X X 4 6 10
SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 2 5 7
CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 3 4
VENICE FL X X 1 2 3 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2
TAMPA FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 85W X 3 5 3 11
CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 3 5 GULF 29N 87W 1 8 7 2 18
ST MARKS FL X X 3 6 9 GULF 28N 89W 3 18 3 X 24
APALACHICOLA FL X 1 5 5 11 GULF 28N 91W X 15 6 1 22
PANAMA CITY FL X 1 6 5 12 GULF 28N 93W X 4 10 3 17
PENSACOLA FL X 1 9 5 15 GULF 28N 95W X X 6 4 10
MOBILE AL X 1 10 6 17 GULF 27N 96W X X 2 4 6
GULFPORT MS X 2 12 4 18 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 1 2
BURAS LA X 8 11 2 21

I may be reading this wrong but is it saying it has a higher probability of hitting Pensacola?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/prb/al122005.prblty.017.shtml?

[MannyIsGod]

You know absolutely nothing about forcasting and it is apparent. You posted what the storm was DOING not what it was going to do.

[Vashner]

Come on guys chill a little...

[Trainwreck2100]

Friday morning
ORRECTED INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES THROUGH 36 HOURS

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

No mention of LA enlighten me

[Trainwreck2100]

Just so you don't have to go looking the first mention of a hurricane watch is saturday at 10am

[MannyIsGod]

This is exactly why you shouldn't argue a point with half facts.



IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD
ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ON
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.




THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE MADE A
LARGE JUMP TO THE WEST OVER LOUISIANA...WHEREAS THE MAJORITY OF THE
NHC MODELS TAKE KATRINA INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.




THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD
AND ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK BEING SHIFTED ABOUT 150 NMI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...
PROJECTED LANDFALL IS STILL ABOUT 72 HOURS AWAY...SO FURTHER
MODIFICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.



THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.


Do you want to continue?

[Trainwreck2100]

You know absolutely nothing about forcasting and it is apparent. You posted what the storm was DOING not what it was going to do.

Yeah because it wasn't moving towards LA hence the bolding of the southwest.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah because it wasn't moving towards LA hence the bolding of the southwest.
Big fucking deal. What a storm is doing today doens't mean it is going to be doing the same thing tomorrow. The storm WAS moving in that direction at that time, but they were telling you later on in the dicussion what it was going to do.

Forcasting is the predicting of the what is going to happen int he future, not now.

[Trainwreck2100]

T IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST
OF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN
THE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI. THIS
CLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

This is exactly why you shouldn't argue a point with half facts.









Do you want to continue?


Not friday morning, therefore not relevent to my argument

[MannyIsGod]

You can't read? 2 models were already pointed to Louisiana on the 12z run on Friday. That is 8am EDT.

And regardless of the situation, if you want to say they didn't have it Friday morning they sure as hell had it nailed by Friday afternoon, and that is still 60 hours before the hurricane landfall. 60 fucking hours!

Lousiana was in the cone on Friday morning, so they should have been aware of the storm and keeping in an eye on it either way. Sure, they coudln't tell you what 20 mile segment of beach was going to see the eye that early, but (and I don't know how many times I have to tell you this) hurricane forcasting doesn't work that way.

The NHC did nail this, and you're wrong as all hell.

[MannyIsGod]

Not friday morning, therefore not relevent to my argument
Your argument has jack shit to do with Friday morning.


Actually they were kind of crappy with Katrina. They did not think it would hit Fl as a hurricane, it did. They didn't think when it left Florida it would turn to La it did. They thought for sure the eye would hit NO, at the last second it turns. Moral of the story NHC was Katrina's bitch.

Actually, the eye did go over the east side of New Orleans. Moral of the story? You're my bitch.

[Trainwreck2100]

You can't read? 2 models were already pointed to Louisiana on the 12z run on Friday. That is 8am EDT.

And regardless of the situation, if you want to say they didn't have it Friday morning they sure as hell had it nailed by Friday afternoon, and that is still 60 hours before the hurricane landfall. 60 fucking hours!

Lousiana was in the cone on Friday morning, so they should have been aware of the storm and keeping in an eye on it either way. Sure, they coudln't tell you what 20 mile segment of beach was going to see the eye that early, but (and I don't know how many times I have to tell you this) hurricane forcasting doesn't work that way.

The NHC did nail this, and you're wrong as all hell.

The item you quote friday 11 am says the majority of the models having it hitting notheast gulf coast, i don't think I read it wrong. Maybe I didn't understand it correctly.

[Trainwreck2100]

Your argument has jack shit to do with Friday morning.






Friday morning????

See, I was asking how they had known on friday. I think there's a misconception here. In quoting the NHC documents I was refuting the friday morning argument.

[MannyIsGod]

The point being they were already forcasting it torwards that direction as early as Friday morning. Thats 3 fucking days! Thats amazing as far as hurricane forcasts go. That is what you need to understand. They had already put the entire northern Gulf Coast on notice.

[Trainwreck2100]

The point being they were already forcasting it torwards that direction as early as Friday morning. Thats 3 fucking days! Thats amazing as far as hurricane forcasts go. That is what you need to understand. They had already put the entire northern Gulf Coast on notice.


But they couldn't evacuate the entire Gulf Coast, that kind of movement is impossible, so they had to wait till it got closer to land before they could nail it down right? I don't remeber seeing evac. notices until sat. and the first watch that I see is on Sat. at 10 am

And honestly when was the last time you paid attention to a tornado watch, when it's a watch people sometimes don't care.

[MannyIsGod]

It's like arguing with a wall. Nevermind.

[kris]

Manny, what is your IQ?

[Trainwreck2100]

It's like arguing with a wall. Nevermind.

Forgive me if I'm putting words in your mouth, but you are saying that it was good meteorological feat that they were able to pinpoint the storm's course so far in advance.

I'm just asking you why did they wait 11 hours to issue a watch. Honestly I think it was because they were unsure of the course it would take until sat. at 10 am

[MannyIsGod]

:lmao @ the link that explains this.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/owlie/hurwatch.htm



When weather forecasters decide the storm might reach land within 2 days, they issue a Hurricane Watch. This tells people along the coast that the hurricane over the ocean might reach land. The National Weather Service tells you what is happening. Keep listening to the radio or television.

Can you figure it out?

[Trainwreck2100]

:lmao @ the link that explains this.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/owlie/hurwatch.htm



Can you figure it out?

So, their policy is to only give two days notice, that's just stupid.

[MannyIsGod]

No, their policy is to operate within the effectiveness of hurricane forcasting. They give notice as soon as there is any indication. They issue a hurricane watch within 2 days of a projected landfall.

Are you really this dense?

[MannyIsGod]

Nevermind, it was me who is dense for resuming this thread. I'm out, again.

[Trainwreck2100]

No, their policy is to operate within the effectiveness of hurricane forcasting. They give notice as soon as there is any indication. They issue a hurricane watch within 2 days of a projected landfall.

Are you really this dense?

I just think it's a stupid policy if the conditions are there, that's what watches are for. Obviously they should be confident enough in their conclusions to issue a watch, because it's shit like watches that make people move. That's just common sense.


Well Manuel, it's been quite a jouney but my lack of drive coupled with the fact I may have work tommorow forces, me to sleep. I have gone SO far off my original thesis, it would take forever this shit ain't going to get back on track. We ended up arguing over twelve hours. Not time of argument, but subject of argument itself. Let's just watch the adjectives. that shits not nice.

[Trainwreck2100]

Nevermind, it was me who is dense for resuming this thread. I'm out, again.

^MFer you realize it took me 18 minutes to finish up a thoughtful reply, and you end it like this

[cherylsteele]

And that cone of uncertainty is what kept people from leaving, and what probably kept the mayor from evacuating.

Even before it hit florida there was talk about the storm sffecting the gulf coast....NHS said for the entire coast to take heed...including Texas.........they did predict a dramatic increase in the gulf due the warm waters (91 degrees). They even told NO and that area to be prepared if the storm were to change course....it did...yet no preparations were done until the last minute and you saw the chaos predicted. There were all types of watches and warnings for the entire area as soon as it left Florida.

Maybe you want them to tell which house will be destroyed by a tornado?

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/144640.shtml?5day

Looks like their prediction of a Carolina hurricane is fixing to come true.

[travis2]

You can find the Katrina graphics archive at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml

In particular to the above argument...take a look at these two successive 3-day track probability plots from the Friday prior to landfall:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT12/12.AL1205W.GIF
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT12/14.AL1205W.GIF

These two plots are 6 hours apart...but even in the first one, the 3-day probability cone includes New Orleans and the eastern coast.

In fact, if you look at all the track predictions, the hard right turn (that didn't happen) into Appalachicola, et al, really only shows up well in one plot.

[travis2]

Go to the strike probability graphics as well. You'll see that at no time was the Florida panhandle strike probability ever assessed to be as much as 20%.

[travis2]

By early Saturday AM, the track prediction had settled down...and they nailed it.

A 15-mile "miss" is a f@#!ing bulls-eye...especially when talking about an eye that was 30-40 miles across.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/144640.shtml?5day

Looks like their prediction of a Carolina hurricane is fixing to come true.
Don't be so sure. The models dont' have a grasp on this storm at all. I still think it will come across Florida because the models don't have the ridge building in just right.

In either case, It's going to sit there for days before going anywhere.