GSH
03-25-2015, 01:29 AM
A lot of people trying to pinpoint what is wrong with the Spurs this season, and a lot of finger-pointing. There are a few simple stats (below) that show the root problem pretty clearly. Almost every player on the team is failing to get to the rim as often as last season. Worse, when they do get to the rim, they are shooting much lower percentages. Bottom line - the Spurs are getting crushed in the middle.
There are a lot of stats below. But the biggest, IMO, is that Duncan is now assisted on almost 75% of his FG's made vs. just over 50% for his career. Even when Duncan scores inside, he's not dominating the middle or providing the inside-out game he once did - he is now largely the recipient of someone else's work. Add to that the fact that Duncan's mid-range percentage has dropped from over 40% to under 33%, which means that defenders are able to sag off that shot and wait for him. That absence of inside dominance is the biggest reason the other players aren't reaching the rim as much, and are meeting a lot more resistance when they do get there.
The stats don't lie - look for yourself. The Spurs whole team is taking fewer shots from 0-3 feet, and making a lower percentage of the ones they do take.
Tim Duncan
Over his career, 54.1% of Duncan's FG makes have been assisted - meaning he has created almost half of his own shots through the years. That number has been steadily increasing for about the past six seasons. This year, the number is all the way up to 73.7%. Basically, three out of every four of his made FG's are assisted now.
For his career, Duncan has averaged 40.3% shooting from 10-16 feet. This year he is only shooting 32.7% from that range. That mid-range shot isn't working for him, and the defenders aren't respecting it - which allows them to sag to the basket, and clog the middle.
Duncan is no longer anchoring the middle. He is stepping into the middle and taking passes. But he's not creating his own shots near the rim, and that means that he isn't providing the inside-out game that he used to. He's not pulling defenders to him like he did, and those guys are sagging to the middle and blowing up the Spurs' paint game.
Tony Parker
This season, only 25.3% of Tony Parker's FG attempts are coming from 0-3 feet. Over his career, 35.6% of his attempts have been from 0-3 feet. In other words, he is getting to the rack almost 1/3 less than his career average. On top of that, his FG% from 0-3 feet is 60.3%, compared to 65.2% over his career.
Compared to previous seasons, Parker can't get to the rim. And when he does, he is not nearly as consistent about finishing. Some of that is on him, but some is because opposing defenses are able to collapse on him more.
Manu Ginobili
Most of Manu's stats look very much like his career averages. Some are down, but for the most part not drastically. But Manu's early stats skew the numbers. Some big diffrerences stand out when you compare Manu this year, to Manu from the past several years. For instance:
Manu's FG% from 0-3 feet is 58.8% this season. In the previous three seasons he shot 77.8%, 65.1%, and 71.7% from 0-3 feet. He's getting to the rim just as often as he ever has (29.8% this year, compared to 29.7% career). But when he gets to the rim this season, he is finishing MUCH less often than he used to.
The other big statistical clue to Manu's play this season is that 46.5% of his made FG's have been assisted, compared to 38.6% for his career. In short, Manu isn't creating his own shot like he used to. Actually, he's probably creating his own shot just about as often - he just isn't making those unassisted shots as much. In order to score, Manu needs help now.
Kawhi Leonard
Like the rest of the team, Kawhi isn't getting to the rim nearly as much. Last season, Kawhi took 30.4% of his shots from 0-3 feet. This season he is taking just 21.1% from up close. Last season, Kawhi made 50.5% of his shots from 3-10 feet. This year he is making 41.5% from short-mid range.
The theme for this year's Spurs is that they aren't getting shots at the basket, and they are missing more of the ones they do get. Kawhi is no exception.
Danny Green
Danny' Green's numbers, for the most part, look very similar to last season. The biggest difference is that he is shooting almost 18% of his shots from 0-3 feet, compared to 12.5% last season. But his FG% on those shots is just 57.8%, compared to 69.8% last season.
Danny is getting to the rack more often, but finishing a LOT less consistently.
Marco Belinelli
Once again, Belinelli isn't getting to the rim as often as last season - 14.5% of his shots coming from 0-3 feet, compared to 17.8% last season. But the big thing is that his FG% from 0-3 feet has dropped from 73.4% to 60.7%.
Just like the rest of the team, Belinelli isn't finishing when he does get to the rim.
Boris Diaw
Boris Diaw is shooting 28.8% of his shots from the 3P line this season, compared to 19.3% last season. But he's shooting 30.8% from the arc, compared to 40.2% this year. Enough said. Boris is spending a lot more time shooting from outside, and making a lot less of them. He's not even challenging the middle. But I'm sure it's not because he doesn't want to.
Tiago Splitter
I didn't include Tiago, because he spent so much of the season injured. His numbers from 10 feet in are actually pretty favorable.
You can analyze everything that happens elsewhere on the floor, but the Spurs are losing these games in the paint. Duncan is still getting numbers, but he's not doing it the same way. His points in the paint are largely the result of other players' assists. And he can't draw defenders to him when his mid-range shot isn't there. As a result, the paint is clogged much of the time, and the other players are being forced to shoot longer shots, or run into a crowd around the rim.
If Tim could revive his mid-range bank shot, and Tony could re-discover his floater, it would force some defense to meet them farther out on the floor. That would open the paint up a little, and probably improve the above numbers some. But nothing substitutes for a dominant post game.
There are a lot of stats below. But the biggest, IMO, is that Duncan is now assisted on almost 75% of his FG's made vs. just over 50% for his career. Even when Duncan scores inside, he's not dominating the middle or providing the inside-out game he once did - he is now largely the recipient of someone else's work. Add to that the fact that Duncan's mid-range percentage has dropped from over 40% to under 33%, which means that defenders are able to sag off that shot and wait for him. That absence of inside dominance is the biggest reason the other players aren't reaching the rim as much, and are meeting a lot more resistance when they do get there.
The stats don't lie - look for yourself. The Spurs whole team is taking fewer shots from 0-3 feet, and making a lower percentage of the ones they do take.
Tim Duncan
Over his career, 54.1% of Duncan's FG makes have been assisted - meaning he has created almost half of his own shots through the years. That number has been steadily increasing for about the past six seasons. This year, the number is all the way up to 73.7%. Basically, three out of every four of his made FG's are assisted now.
For his career, Duncan has averaged 40.3% shooting from 10-16 feet. This year he is only shooting 32.7% from that range. That mid-range shot isn't working for him, and the defenders aren't respecting it - which allows them to sag to the basket, and clog the middle.
Duncan is no longer anchoring the middle. He is stepping into the middle and taking passes. But he's not creating his own shots near the rim, and that means that he isn't providing the inside-out game that he used to. He's not pulling defenders to him like he did, and those guys are sagging to the middle and blowing up the Spurs' paint game.
Tony Parker
This season, only 25.3% of Tony Parker's FG attempts are coming from 0-3 feet. Over his career, 35.6% of his attempts have been from 0-3 feet. In other words, he is getting to the rack almost 1/3 less than his career average. On top of that, his FG% from 0-3 feet is 60.3%, compared to 65.2% over his career.
Compared to previous seasons, Parker can't get to the rim. And when he does, he is not nearly as consistent about finishing. Some of that is on him, but some is because opposing defenses are able to collapse on him more.
Manu Ginobili
Most of Manu's stats look very much like his career averages. Some are down, but for the most part not drastically. But Manu's early stats skew the numbers. Some big diffrerences stand out when you compare Manu this year, to Manu from the past several years. For instance:
Manu's FG% from 0-3 feet is 58.8% this season. In the previous three seasons he shot 77.8%, 65.1%, and 71.7% from 0-3 feet. He's getting to the rim just as often as he ever has (29.8% this year, compared to 29.7% career). But when he gets to the rim this season, he is finishing MUCH less often than he used to.
The other big statistical clue to Manu's play this season is that 46.5% of his made FG's have been assisted, compared to 38.6% for his career. In short, Manu isn't creating his own shot like he used to. Actually, he's probably creating his own shot just about as often - he just isn't making those unassisted shots as much. In order to score, Manu needs help now.
Kawhi Leonard
Like the rest of the team, Kawhi isn't getting to the rim nearly as much. Last season, Kawhi took 30.4% of his shots from 0-3 feet. This season he is taking just 21.1% from up close. Last season, Kawhi made 50.5% of his shots from 3-10 feet. This year he is making 41.5% from short-mid range.
The theme for this year's Spurs is that they aren't getting shots at the basket, and they are missing more of the ones they do get. Kawhi is no exception.
Danny Green
Danny' Green's numbers, for the most part, look very similar to last season. The biggest difference is that he is shooting almost 18% of his shots from 0-3 feet, compared to 12.5% last season. But his FG% on those shots is just 57.8%, compared to 69.8% last season.
Danny is getting to the rack more often, but finishing a LOT less consistently.
Marco Belinelli
Once again, Belinelli isn't getting to the rim as often as last season - 14.5% of his shots coming from 0-3 feet, compared to 17.8% last season. But the big thing is that his FG% from 0-3 feet has dropped from 73.4% to 60.7%.
Just like the rest of the team, Belinelli isn't finishing when he does get to the rim.
Boris Diaw
Boris Diaw is shooting 28.8% of his shots from the 3P line this season, compared to 19.3% last season. But he's shooting 30.8% from the arc, compared to 40.2% this year. Enough said. Boris is spending a lot more time shooting from outside, and making a lot less of them. He's not even challenging the middle. But I'm sure it's not because he doesn't want to.
Tiago Splitter
I didn't include Tiago, because he spent so much of the season injured. His numbers from 10 feet in are actually pretty favorable.
You can analyze everything that happens elsewhere on the floor, but the Spurs are losing these games in the paint. Duncan is still getting numbers, but he's not doing it the same way. His points in the paint are largely the result of other players' assists. And he can't draw defenders to him when his mid-range shot isn't there. As a result, the paint is clogged much of the time, and the other players are being forced to shoot longer shots, or run into a crowd around the rim.
If Tim could revive his mid-range bank shot, and Tony could re-discover his floater, it would force some defense to meet them farther out on the floor. That would open the paint up a little, and probably improve the above numbers some. But nothing substitutes for a dominant post game.