This is the most likely Western Playoff Bracket by season's end.

[Uriel]

1. Golden State Warriors
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Los Angeles Clippers
4. Portland Trail Blazers
5. Houston Rockets*
6. Memphis Grizzlies
7. Dallas Mavericks
8. Oklahoma City Thunder

*Houston will have home-court advantage over Portland in the 1st round.

I say "most likely" because it's the playoff bracket that comes out when we assume that the teams take care of business in their remaining schedules and win the games they're favored to win. I'm confident enough that this is the bracket that will come out that we can start making playoff predictions based on this bracket.

[BatManu20]

This would be best case scenario. Which is why I think it doesn't happen.

[RD2191]

I honestly don't see the Rockets winning both of their final 2 games. Dwight could possibly miss both. It seems to good be true and I could totally see them tanking one just to fuck us.

[RD2191]

This would be best case scenario. Which is why I think it doesn't happen.

[ElNono]

I honestly don't see the Rockets winning both of their final 2 games. Dwight could possibly miss both. It seems to good be true and I could totally see them tanking one just to fuck us.

I can see Memphis losing to the Warriors, in which case what the Rockets do doesn't really matter.

[Uriel]

This would be best case scenario. Which is why I think it doesn't happen.
I didn't formulate this bracket based on what I wanted. I formulated it based on what's most likely to occur if we assume that all teams take care of their business in their remaining schedule by beating teams they're supposed to beat.

[RD2191]

I can see Memphis losing to the Warriors, in which case what the Rockets do doesn't really matter.
I hope that's what happens. Having to rely on the Rockets just doesn't feel right.

[Uriel]

I can see Memphis and Houston being switched around, depending on what happens in their remaining games. But, barring any major upset, I'm almost certain about every other seed.

[ElNono]

I didn't formulate this bracket based on what I wanted. I formulated it based on what's most likely to occur if we assume that all teams take care of their business in their remaining schedule by beating teams they're supposed to beat.

I guess we shouldn't forget that "taking care of business" might include jockeying for what a team might consider a favorable playoff matchup or resting players for teams that are already locked in position (ie: Warriors). I'll feel better about this prognostication after the Warriors beats Memphis and if the Spurs do the same with the Suns.

[RD2191]

Damn, the Rockets still have 3 games left. I thought they only had 2 left for some reason. Fudge.

[Uriel]

I guess we shouldn't forget that "taking care of business" might include jockeying for what a team might consider a favorable playoff matchup or resting players for teams that are already locked in position (ie: Warriors). I'll feel better about this prognostication after the Warriors beats Memphis and if the Spurs do the same with the Suns.
Agreed. But Memphis will be playing without Conley, Allen, and possibly Gasol in Golden State. The odds of them winning that game are very minute, to say the least. And obviously, the Suns won't win in San Antonio.

[Malik Hairston]

The standings in the OP are a virtual lock, tbh..

Realistically, the only team that can change things is the Pelicans, as they have a slight chance of beating either the Rockets or Spurs..

I'd be absolutely shocked if Memphis beats Golden State..Warriors are a much better team, the Grizzlies are banged up, and the Warriors are fully aware that beating Memphis gives them a much better chance of avoiding the Spurs bracket and having the Spurs-Clippers battle it out in the 2nd round..

Best-case for the Spurs is hoping the Clippers miraculously lose a game and fall to 5th IMO..I don't care about the Spurs playing them, but it would be nice to have the Clippers-Warriors matchup, as none of the other teams have any chance at even challenging GS..

[RD2191]

The standings in the OP are a virtual lock, tbh..

Realistically, the only team that can change things is the Pelicans, as they have a slight chance of beating either the Rockets or Spurs..

I'd be absolutely shocked if Memphis beats Golden State..Warriors are a much better team, the Grizzlies are banged up, and the Warriors are fully aware that beating Memphis gives them a much better chance of avoiding the Spurs bracket and having the Spurs-Clippers battle it out in the 2nd round..

Best-case for the Spurs is hoping the Clippers miraculously lose a game and fall to 5th IMO..I don't care about the Spurs playing them, but it would be nice to have the Clippers-Warriors matchup, as none of the other teams have any chance at even challenging GS..
You don't think the Rockets can beat the Clippers?

[Cloud786]

I just thought of something improbable, but certainly possible considering Houston hates us for what we just did to them. A 4 way tie would mean the following rankings:

Warriors
Spurs
Clippers
Blazers
Grizzlies
Rockets

So if the Spurs/Grizzlies/Clippers win out, the Rockets would be stuck at 6th even if they win out themselves. They could potentially lose that final game of the season on purpose to fuck the Spurs and drop them to 5th, since win or lose they would be stuck at 6th anyway, right? That way, they would put both the Spurs and Warriors on the same side of the bracket to avoid playing both.

Of course, what goes against this is that the Spurs game and Rockets game both start at the same time on Wedneday, so Rockets may play hard and try to win in hopes of the Spurs dropping the game so they could move up. Or if they see the Spurs blowing out the Pelicans, they may end up tanking the game... Let's just hope the Grizzlies drop the game against the Warriors to avoid this crap scenario.

Basically what I'm trying to say is fuck the Rockets.

[RD2191]

I just thought of something improbable, but certainly possible considering Houston hates us for what we just did to them. A 4 way tie would mean the following rankings:

Warriors
Spurs
Clippers
Blazers
Grizzlies
Rockets

So if the Spurs/Grizzlies/Clippers win out, the Rockets would be stuck at 6th even if they win out themselves. They could potentially lose that final game of the season on purpose to fuck the Spurs and drop them to 5th, since win or lose they would be stuck at 6th anyway, right? That way, they would put both the Spurs and Warriors on the same side of the bracket to avoid playing both.

Of course, what goes against this is that the Spurs game and Rockets game both start at the same time on Wedneday, so Rockets may play hard and try to win in hopes of the Spurs dropping the game so they could move up. Or if they see the Spurs blowing out the Pelicans, they may end up tanking the game... Let's just hope the Grizzlies drop the game against the Warriors to avoid this crap scenario.

Basically what I'm trying to say is fuck the Rockets.
:lolexactly

[Malik Hairston]

You don't think the Rockets can beat the Clippers?

I don't know, but they have no chance against the Warriors, tbh..

[Robz4000]

You don't think the Rockets can beat the Clippers?

Rockets could beat the Clippers, but the Clippers are the only other team outside San Antonio that could beat the Warriors, mostly due to the rivalry factor.

[Horry Hipcheck]

I can see Memphis losing to the Warriors, in which case what the Rockets do doesn't really matter.

This, tbh. They gave LA a better fight than I expected them to, but those nagging injuries and now the possibility that Gasol's ankle isn't good to go in Oakland, coupled with Curry maybe wanting to finalize his claim to the MVP trophy/GS maybe wanting to guarantee that they don't meet the Spurs in Round 2, I think Memphis falling to GSW is highly probable.

The Rockets best chance at stealing back the 2 seed is to win out and hope Memphis and the Spurs lose once more each. Memphis may already have that extra loss before the final day of the season, at which point nobody here gives a flying fuck what Houston does; but their best shot at having the Spurs slip from the 2 seed is at New Orleans in their final game, and the Rockets don't have the benefit of playing after the Spurs and Pelicans.

Worst case scenario, Houston somehow butchers the 2 seed for the Spurs or the Spurs do it themselves. More likely, in my opinion, is that Memphis loses to Golden State (Houston becomes irrelevant as long as the Spurs win out), but Houston will try and win out in the hopes that the Spurs lose in New Orleans and they can sneak back into the 2 seed.

[100%duncan]

I just thought of something improbable, but certainly possible considering Houston hates us for what we just did to them. A 4 way tie would mean the following rankings:

Warriors
Spurs
Clippers
Blazers
Grizzlies
Rockets

So if the Spurs/Grizzlies/Clippers win out, the Rockets would be stuck at 6th even if they win out themselves. They could potentially lose that final game of the season on purpose to fuck the Spurs and drop them to 5th, since win or lose they would be stuck at 6th anyway, right? That way, they would put both the Spurs and Warriors on the same side of the bracket to avoid playing both.

Of course, what goes against this is that the Spurs game and Rockets game both start at the same time on Wedneday, so Rockets may play hard and try to win in hopes of the Spurs dropping the game so they could move up. Or if they see the Spurs blowing out the Pelicans, they may end up tanking the game... Let's just hope the Grizzlies drop the game against the Warriors to avoid this crap scenario.

Basically what I'm trying to say is fuck the Rockets.

holy shit :lmao

[Uriel]

The standings in the OP are a virtual lock, tbh..

Realistically, the only team that can change things is the Pelicans, as they have a slight chance of beating either the Rockets or Spurs..

I'd be absolutely shocked if Memphis beats Golden State..Warriors are a much better team, the Grizzlies are banged up, and the Warriors are fully aware that beating Memphis gives them a much better chance of avoiding the Spurs bracket and having the Spurs-Clippers battle it out in the 2nd round..

Best-case for the Spurs is hoping the Clippers miraculously lose a game and fall to 5th IMO..I don't care about the Spurs playing them, but it would be nice to have the Clippers-Warriors matchup, as none of the other teams have any chance at even challenging GS..
I agree that it would be beneficial to the Spurs if the Clippers played the Warriors in the 2nd round. I think a lot of people are sleeping on the Clippers. Los Angeles has the 2nd highest point differential in the NBA (after Golden State), so they would definitely be a tough out in the playoffs. Putting them in the same bracket as the Warriors and watching those two teams beat each other up can only be a good thing for the Spurs.

The only downside is we'd likely have to play against Houston in the 2nd round, and these last two games have demonstrated unequivocally that we have matchup problems with them.

[boutons_deux]

spurs and clips will finish with equal records,

h2h 2-2

not in same division (but clips have better div record)

then clips have the better WC record, get 2 seed

http://www.nba.com/news/features/playoff.tiebreakers/

[SouthernFried]

I think I'll wait until Thursday. Someone will probably have it right by then.

Or not...

[exstatic]

I just thought of something improbable, but certainly possible considering Houston hates us for what we just did to them. A 4 way tie would mean the following rankings:

Warriors
Spurs
Clippers
Blazers
Grizzlies
Rockets

So if the Spurs/Grizzlies/Clippers win out, the Rockets would be stuck at 6th even if they win out themselves. They could potentially lose that final game of the season on purpose to fuck the Spurs and drop them to 5th, since win or lose they would be stuck at 6th anyway, right? That way, they would put both the Spurs and Warriors on the same side of the bracket to avoid playing both.

Of course, what goes against this is that the Spurs game and Rockets game both start at the same time on Wedneday, so Rockets may play hard and try to win in hopes of the Spurs dropping the game so they could move up. Or if they see the Spurs blowing out the Pelicans, they may end up tanking the game... Let's just hope the Grizzlies drop the game against the Warriors to avoid this crap scenario.

Basically what I'm trying to say is fuck the Rockets.

The Rockets still have a shot at #5, and home court in the first round. They need the same thing we do: a Memphis loss, which could happen Monday (GS) or Wednesday against a renewed Indy team fighting for a playoff berth.

[Chinook]

spurs and clips will finish with equal records,

h2h 2-2

not in same division (but clips have better div record)

then clips have the better WC record, get 2 seed

http://www.nba.com/news/features/playoff.tiebreakers/

Winning the division is the first tie-breaker. Clips will not win the two seed if tied with any other team.

[exstatic]

spurs and clips will finish with equal records,

h2h 2-2

not in same division (but clips have better div record)

then clips have the better WC record, get 2 seed

http://www.nba.com/news/features/playoff.tiebreakers/

We magically jump right over them if we win the Southwest. Go to your link and look at the top: tiebreaker basis 1).

[Agloco]

I honestly don't see the Rockets winning both of their final 2 games. Dwight could possibly miss both. It seems to good be true and I could totally see them tanking one just to fuck us.


I can see Memphis losing to the Warriors, in which case what the Rockets do doesn't really matter.

Which will likely happen since MEM is without Conley and most likely Gasol

[Agloco]

spurs and clips will finish with equal records,

h2h 2-2

not in same division (but clips have better div record)

then clips have the better WC record, get 2 seed

http://www.nba.com/news/features/playoff.tiebreakers/

Incorrect my friend

[dbestpro]

spurs and clips will finish with equal records,

h2h 2-2

not in same division (but clips have better div record)

then clips have the better WC record, get 2 seed

http://www.nba.com/news/features/playoff.tiebreakers/

Spurs get second seed due to winning the SW, but would not have home court advantage in 2nd round if they face Clips. So, really no advantage in positions 2,3 or 5.

[Mel_13]

Spurs get second seed due to winning the SW, but would not have home court advantage in 2nd round if they face Clips. So, really no advantage in positions 2,3 or 5.

No. If the Spurs finish with the second seed they will have HCA against every team except the Warriors and the Hawks.

[td4mvp21]

Spurs get second seed due to winning the SW, but would not have home court advantage in 2nd round if they face Clips. So, really no advantage in positions 2,3 or 5.

Is this correct? I thought being a division winner is the tiebreaker, which would give the Spurs home court over the Clippers even with the same record.

[exstatic]

Is this correct? I thought being a division winner is the tiebreaker, which would give the Spurs home court over the Clippers even with the same record.

You are correct. dbestpro is incorrect. The tiebreaker that brings us the 2 seed brings HCA with it. The only reason that Portland will not have HCA in the first round is that they will have a WORSE record than any team at #5. If their record were the same as #5, they would have HCA by virtue of their division title.

Once the tiebreakers are resolved, you don't later go further into them (head to head) to re-evaluate for HCA.

[Tuddy]

Can anyone give a rough estimate of the dates? I know they start a day earlier than last year
and I'm coming over from Australia on the 28th and am hoping for a game 5 in San Antonio around then (the way they're playing it's not looking good)

[spurs10]

I think it's all guess work. We will likely either play Saturday 4/18 or Sunday 4/19. Really hoping for an evening game, but they'll probably put us on prime time Sunday like 3:30 which I hate.

[TXstbobcat]

Please do not schedule the Spurs as the early game on Saturday. I work until 3:30 that day. :cry

[Arcadian]

God dammit. With Aldridge out and Westbrook in, a Thunder victory is highly likely.

Is there any way the Spurs can lose against the Pelicans and still get the 2 seed?