Seventyniner
04-16-2015, 08:32 AM
Year
1st opp
SA SRS
Rank
Opp SRS
Rank
Diff
HCA
Winner
1998
PHO
3.30
9
4.44
7
-1.14
PHO
SA
1999
MIN
7.12
1
-0.17
16
+7.29
SA
SA
2000
PHO
5.92
3
5.24
4
+0.68
SA
PHO
2001
MIN
7.92
1
1.81
12
+6.11
SA
SA
2002
SEA
6.28
3
3.24
7
+3.04
SA
SA
2003
PHO
5.65
3
1.56
13
+4.09
SA
SA
2004
MEM
7.51
1
2.95
8
+4.56
SA
SA
2005
DEN
7.84
1
2.23
10
+5.61
SA
SA
2006
SAC
6.69
1
1.61
11
+5.08
SA
SA
2007
DEN
8.35
1
1.69
9
+6.66
SA
SA
2008
PHO
5.10
7
5.13
6
-0.03
SA
SA
2009
DAL
3.36
7
1.68
11
+1.68
SA
DAL
2010
DAL
5.07
4
2.66
12
+2.41
DAL
SA
2011
MEM
5.86
4
2.55
10
+3.31
SA
MEM
2012
LAL
7.28
2
0.92
15
+6.36
SA
SA
2013
UTA
6.67
3
1.48
10
+5.19
SA
SA
2014
DAL
8.00
1
2.91
11
+5.09
SA
SA
2015
LAC
6.33
3
6.80
2
-0.47
LAC
???
Here is a breakdown of Spurs first-round opponents in the Duncan era based on SRS (explanation here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=39). SRS is a much better predictor of postseason success than win-loss record.
This will be the third time that the Spurs will face a team rated higher in SRS in the first round. Each of the first two were against the Suns, though each team involved was vastly different given the 10-year gap. The 2008 series was supposed to be a coinflip (game 1 basically was), and we didn't fully grasp what Duncan was capable of in his rookie year.
We can see here the dominance the Spurs have exhibited in SRS over Duncan's career. Only three times have the Spurs finished outside the top 4, and the Spurs managed three combined series victories in those years (one in 1998, two in 2008, none in 2009).
However, this year's Clippers team is the toughest first-round opponent the Spurs have had since drafting Duncan. The Clippers are the second-best team in the league by SRS and the Spurs will have to win at least one game on the road. The Clippers' SRS of 6.80 is worthy of at least the conference finals; having the 3rd-best SRS and yet having to face them in the first round is quite unfortunate. The Spurs have had remarkable success in the first round these past 17 years, but their most difficult task awaits.
This is a pretty small gap in SRS, so the smart money is probably on the Clippers winning in 7.
1st opp
SA SRS
Rank
Opp SRS
Rank
Diff
HCA
Winner
1998
PHO
3.30
9
4.44
7
-1.14
PHO
SA
1999
MIN
7.12
1
-0.17
16
+7.29
SA
SA
2000
PHO
5.92
3
5.24
4
+0.68
SA
PHO
2001
MIN
7.92
1
1.81
12
+6.11
SA
SA
2002
SEA
6.28
3
3.24
7
+3.04
SA
SA
2003
PHO
5.65
3
1.56
13
+4.09
SA
SA
2004
MEM
7.51
1
2.95
8
+4.56
SA
SA
2005
DEN
7.84
1
2.23
10
+5.61
SA
SA
2006
SAC
6.69
1
1.61
11
+5.08
SA
SA
2007
DEN
8.35
1
1.69
9
+6.66
SA
SA
2008
PHO
5.10
7
5.13
6
-0.03
SA
SA
2009
DAL
3.36
7
1.68
11
+1.68
SA
DAL
2010
DAL
5.07
4
2.66
12
+2.41
DAL
SA
2011
MEM
5.86
4
2.55
10
+3.31
SA
MEM
2012
LAL
7.28
2
0.92
15
+6.36
SA
SA
2013
UTA
6.67
3
1.48
10
+5.19
SA
SA
2014
DAL
8.00
1
2.91
11
+5.09
SA
SA
2015
LAC
6.33
3
6.80
2
-0.47
LAC
???
Here is a breakdown of Spurs first-round opponents in the Duncan era based on SRS (explanation here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=39). SRS is a much better predictor of postseason success than win-loss record.
This will be the third time that the Spurs will face a team rated higher in SRS in the first round. Each of the first two were against the Suns, though each team involved was vastly different given the 10-year gap. The 2008 series was supposed to be a coinflip (game 1 basically was), and we didn't fully grasp what Duncan was capable of in his rookie year.
We can see here the dominance the Spurs have exhibited in SRS over Duncan's career. Only three times have the Spurs finished outside the top 4, and the Spurs managed three combined series victories in those years (one in 1998, two in 2008, none in 2009).
However, this year's Clippers team is the toughest first-round opponent the Spurs have had since drafting Duncan. The Clippers are the second-best team in the league by SRS and the Spurs will have to win at least one game on the road. The Clippers' SRS of 6.80 is worthy of at least the conference finals; having the 3rd-best SRS and yet having to face them in the first round is quite unfortunate. The Spurs have had remarkable success in the first round these past 17 years, but their most difficult task awaits.
This is a pretty small gap in SRS, so the smart money is probably on the Clippers winning in 7.