BillMc
04-17-2015, 01:34 AM
http://www.nba.com/2015/news/features/lang_whitaker/04/16/los-angeles-clippers-san-antonio-spurs-2015-playoff-preview/index.html?ls=iref:nba:serieshubs:top:modtop
(Formatting is better if you follow the link, obviously!)
Here we go again. The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the NBA's best teams for years, only without much postseason success to show for it. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs have mostly treated the regular season like the preseason, benching starters and pacing themselves, before breezing through the playoffs.
This season wasn't much different. The Clippers were once again consistently excellent, enduring a 15-game absence from Blake Griffin (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/blake_griffin/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) to finish the regular season 56-26. As dynamic as the Golden State Warriors were during the regular season, the Los Angeles Clippers finished as the league's best team in terms of offensive rating, just edging the Warriors (109.8 to 109.7) (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=1).
As great as the Clippers were offensively, they were only average defensively,finishing the season 15th with a 103 defensive rating (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1). Meanwhile, the Spursranked 6th in offensive rating (106.2) (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=1) and 3rd in defensive rating (99.6) (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1). Quietly, the Spurs rounded into form quite nicely.
But it was something of an uphill battle. After thumping the Heat to win The Finals last season, the Spurs began this season mostly trying to maintain progress as several players battled injuries and their veteran big man Tim Duncan (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/tim_duncan/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) carried them early. But after getting Tony Parker (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/tony_parker/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) and Kawhi Leonard (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/kawhi_leonard/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile)back, the Spurs found their top gear late, winning 14 of their last 16 to surge into the postseason looking every bit like the defending champs.
The Spurs big three -- Duncan, Parker, Manu Ginobili (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/emanuel_ginobili/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) -- remains intact, but the last few months have seen Leonard establish himself as a bonafide superstar in his own right. He averaged 19.2 points per game in March and April (http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202695/stats/?DateFrom=03%2F01%2F2015&DateTo=04%2F16%2F2015) as he found an offensive stride. But equally impressive was his defense, as Leonard showed off what was arguably the stingiest on-ball coverage in the league.
Since trading for Chris Paul (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/chris_paul/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) before the 2011 season, the Clippers have been regularly above average, but haven't managed to get past the Western Conference semifinals. While the Clippers have made regular trips to the postseason, they haven't met the Spurs in the playoffs since San Antonio swept the Los Angeles in the 2012 Western Conference semifinals (http://www.nba.com/playoffs/2012/westseries5/index.html?ls=st).
In four regular season matchups this season, the Clippers and Spurs split the series, with each team winning twice. The last time they played, on February 19, the Clippers won 119-115, behind 20 points and 16 assists from Chris Paul. Griffin missed that game, recovering from an elbow infection. Since his return on March 15, the Clippers have gone 14-2 and looked like title contenders.
And so we find two teams rounding into form at the right time, meeting in round one. The Clippers, who have home-court advantage in this series, would probably favored against most opponents. But these are the Spurs, the reigning champs, the team that made us all sit up during the NBA Finals when they turned basketball into an idealized version of sport. Can the Spurs reach that rarefied air again? Not if Chris Paul and the Clippers have anything to do with it.
Five quick questions (and answers)
1. Will Spurs coach Gregg Popovich make us sit through Hack-A-Jordan again? When the Spurs and Clippers played in February, Popovich was not afraid to send DeAndre Jordan (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/deandre_jordan/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) to the charity stripe, making the free throw-challenged Jordan shoot 28 free throws (http://on.nba.com/17iN1Bd) (he made 10) as the Clippers won, 119-115. It kept the Spurs in the game, sure, but it was also dreadful basketball. It may not be visually pleasing, but if the Clippers are going to have a guy who shot 39.7 percent from the line this season on the floor, don't be surprised if Popovich tries to find some way to take advantage of having him out there.
2. How will the Spurs stop Chris Paul? As CP3 goes, so go the Clippers. In four games against the Spurs this season, Paul averaged 19.8 ppg and 10 apg (http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/101108/stats/?OpponentTeamID=1610612759). But it's worth noting that in the postseason, the Spurs will likely use Leonard against Paul for stretches, which will at the very least delay the Clippers getting into their offense, if not completely disrupting things.
3. Can the Clippers' bench sustain them? Probably not, but maybe sustaining isn't as important once we're in the postseason, when rotations shorten and teams get more time off between games. The Clippers have struggled mightily to build a bench this year, accumulating a collection of role players who haven't been able to provide much punch on a consistent basis.
4. Are the Spurs back? They do it without fanfare and without much concern for public perception, but the important thing is that they do it. To wit: The Spurs are 19-4 in their last 23 games. They improved night after night, made the right play, and aimed to get a little bit better than the night before. No reason the playoffs should stop that momentum.
5. Which Jamal Crawford (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/jamal_crawford/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) will we see? When he's healthy, Clippers guard Jamal Crawford is an explosive combo guard off the bench and the former Kia Sixth Man of the Year Award winner. The problem is that Crawford hasn't been healthy -- Crawford missed 17 games toward the end of the season with a calf injury, returning just a week ago to play limited minutes in the final four regular season games. With the Clippers bench lacking punch, Crawford is perhaps more important to the Clippers than ever before.
When the Clippers have the ball ...
The Spurs are known for spreading the floor and finding open outside shots, but the Clippers were more reliant on the 3-pointer this season than almost every other team in the NBA. The Clips averaged 26.9 threes per game, fifth most in the NBA (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/?sort=FG3A&dir=1), and they connected at a 37.6 percent clip (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1), third-highest in the league.
The Spurs will likely counter by using smaller lineups and running the Clippers off the three-point line as much as possible. They may even, God forbid, return to the Hack-A-Jordan strategy to disrupt Los Angeles' rhythm.
Griffin relied on his jump shot more than ever this season, and showed an ability to knock down midrange jumpers, sometimes at the expense of driving to the basket and getting to the free throw line. If the Spurs are overly concerned with the 3-point arc and wrapping up Jordan in the paint, there may be room for Griffin to work in the midrange areas.
When the Spurs have the ball ...
When San Antonio is at their best, they mix ball movement with screens, picks and misdirection, creating a symphony of hoops resulting in open shots. And when the offense breaks down, their Duncan, Parker and Ginobili can generally create quality looks at the end of the shot clock.
As established, the Clippers aren't a lights-out defensive team, but they do present some unique challenges. Paul is a bulldog on the perimeter, and Jordan is a terrific rim protector as well as rebounder. The Spurs can and likely will solve these issues with ball movement and patience, but they aren't simple problems.
The Spurs will stress playing with pace and space, but the Clippers are a team to whom playing uptempo will be agreeable -- the Clippers finished 10th in the league in pace to San Antonio's 17th (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=PACE&dir=1). But speed isn't the answer to everything. The Clippers may have the pedal to the medal, but the Spurs make the right decisions, time and again.
In the clutch
For the Clippers, it all goes through Paul. The ball will be in his hands, with the decisions left to him as far who gets the ball. Paul is a competent outside shooter and has a solid midrange jumper. Griffin showed off a much-improved outside shot this season, often to the detriment of driving to the basket and drawing a foul. As important as Jordan was to the Clippers this season, his free throw shooting makes him a liability in late-game situations.
As far as the Spurs, well, pick your poison. They have three probable Hall of Famers in Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, each of whom has experience knocking down big shots. And even though guys like Danny Green (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/daniel_green/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) or Leonard lack the experience, they don't lack the guts or guile to make or take a clutch shot. Probably most importantly, the Spurs will simply look to get the ball to the guy with the best opportunity to make the best shot. Which could be anyone on the team. Which is exactly what makes the Spurs so dangerous.
Wild cards
For all the talk about the Clippers' Big Three (Paul, Griffin, Jordan), their third-leading scorer this season was actually J.J. Redick, who averaged 16.4 ppg and attempted nearly 6 three-pointers per game. The Clippers run Redick off a never-ending series of screens, meaning the Spurs will have to find a defender (or, more likely, a series of defenders) who can keep up with Redick and chase him off the 3-point line.
Griffin presents an obvious matchup problem for the Spurs. Duncan may be the greatest power forward of all-time, but at this point he likely can't keep up with Griffin, and is probably better suited to boxing out Jordan. The Spurs could possibly put Tiago Splitter (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/tiago_splitter/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) on Griffin and try to eat as many minutes as possible with that matchup. If Splitter find foul trouble, wily veteran Boris Diaw (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/boris_diaw/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) may get a shot as well.
Prediction
A couple of 55-plus win teams going at it in the first round of the playoffs? That's where we are now, as the power-heavy Western Conference gives us this clash of the titans. The Clippers have won a lot of games since coach Doc Rivers and Paul arrived, but they haven't won anything in the postseason of substance. This series gives them the opportunity to do exactly that. Meanwhile, the Spurs dynasty has to come to an end at some point, but these players don't seem to have much interest in it happening on their watch. Spurs in 7.
(Formatting is better if you follow the link, obviously!)
Here we go again. The Los Angeles Clippers have been one of the NBA's best teams for years, only without much postseason success to show for it. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs have mostly treated the regular season like the preseason, benching starters and pacing themselves, before breezing through the playoffs.
This season wasn't much different. The Clippers were once again consistently excellent, enduring a 15-game absence from Blake Griffin (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/blake_griffin/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) to finish the regular season 56-26. As dynamic as the Golden State Warriors were during the regular season, the Los Angeles Clippers finished as the league's best team in terms of offensive rating, just edging the Warriors (109.8 to 109.7) (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=1).
As great as the Clippers were offensively, they were only average defensively,finishing the season 15th with a 103 defensive rating (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1). Meanwhile, the Spursranked 6th in offensive rating (106.2) (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=OFF_RATING&dir=1) and 3rd in defensive rating (99.6) (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1). Quietly, the Spurs rounded into form quite nicely.
But it was something of an uphill battle. After thumping the Heat to win The Finals last season, the Spurs began this season mostly trying to maintain progress as several players battled injuries and their veteran big man Tim Duncan (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/tim_duncan/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) carried them early. But after getting Tony Parker (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/tony_parker/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) and Kawhi Leonard (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/kawhi_leonard/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile)back, the Spurs found their top gear late, winning 14 of their last 16 to surge into the postseason looking every bit like the defending champs.
The Spurs big three -- Duncan, Parker, Manu Ginobili (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/emanuel_ginobili/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) -- remains intact, but the last few months have seen Leonard establish himself as a bonafide superstar in his own right. He averaged 19.2 points per game in March and April (http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202695/stats/?DateFrom=03%2F01%2F2015&DateTo=04%2F16%2F2015) as he found an offensive stride. But equally impressive was his defense, as Leonard showed off what was arguably the stingiest on-ball coverage in the league.
Since trading for Chris Paul (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/chris_paul/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) before the 2011 season, the Clippers have been regularly above average, but haven't managed to get past the Western Conference semifinals. While the Clippers have made regular trips to the postseason, they haven't met the Spurs in the playoffs since San Antonio swept the Los Angeles in the 2012 Western Conference semifinals (http://www.nba.com/playoffs/2012/westseries5/index.html?ls=st).
In four regular season matchups this season, the Clippers and Spurs split the series, with each team winning twice. The last time they played, on February 19, the Clippers won 119-115, behind 20 points and 16 assists from Chris Paul. Griffin missed that game, recovering from an elbow infection. Since his return on March 15, the Clippers have gone 14-2 and looked like title contenders.
And so we find two teams rounding into form at the right time, meeting in round one. The Clippers, who have home-court advantage in this series, would probably favored against most opponents. But these are the Spurs, the reigning champs, the team that made us all sit up during the NBA Finals when they turned basketball into an idealized version of sport. Can the Spurs reach that rarefied air again? Not if Chris Paul and the Clippers have anything to do with it.
Five quick questions (and answers)
1. Will Spurs coach Gregg Popovich make us sit through Hack-A-Jordan again? When the Spurs and Clippers played in February, Popovich was not afraid to send DeAndre Jordan (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/deandre_jordan/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) to the charity stripe, making the free throw-challenged Jordan shoot 28 free throws (http://on.nba.com/17iN1Bd) (he made 10) as the Clippers won, 119-115. It kept the Spurs in the game, sure, but it was also dreadful basketball. It may not be visually pleasing, but if the Clippers are going to have a guy who shot 39.7 percent from the line this season on the floor, don't be surprised if Popovich tries to find some way to take advantage of having him out there.
2. How will the Spurs stop Chris Paul? As CP3 goes, so go the Clippers. In four games against the Spurs this season, Paul averaged 19.8 ppg and 10 apg (http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/101108/stats/?OpponentTeamID=1610612759). But it's worth noting that in the postseason, the Spurs will likely use Leonard against Paul for stretches, which will at the very least delay the Clippers getting into their offense, if not completely disrupting things.
3. Can the Clippers' bench sustain them? Probably not, but maybe sustaining isn't as important once we're in the postseason, when rotations shorten and teams get more time off between games. The Clippers have struggled mightily to build a bench this year, accumulating a collection of role players who haven't been able to provide much punch on a consistent basis.
4. Are the Spurs back? They do it without fanfare and without much concern for public perception, but the important thing is that they do it. To wit: The Spurs are 19-4 in their last 23 games. They improved night after night, made the right play, and aimed to get a little bit better than the night before. No reason the playoffs should stop that momentum.
5. Which Jamal Crawford (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/jamal_crawford/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) will we see? When he's healthy, Clippers guard Jamal Crawford is an explosive combo guard off the bench and the former Kia Sixth Man of the Year Award winner. The problem is that Crawford hasn't been healthy -- Crawford missed 17 games toward the end of the season with a calf injury, returning just a week ago to play limited minutes in the final four regular season games. With the Clippers bench lacking punch, Crawford is perhaps more important to the Clippers than ever before.
When the Clippers have the ball ...
The Spurs are known for spreading the floor and finding open outside shots, but the Clippers were more reliant on the 3-pointer this season than almost every other team in the NBA. The Clips averaged 26.9 threes per game, fifth most in the NBA (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/?sort=FG3A&dir=1), and they connected at a 37.6 percent clip (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/?sort=FG3_PCT&dir=1), third-highest in the league.
The Spurs will likely counter by using smaller lineups and running the Clippers off the three-point line as much as possible. They may even, God forbid, return to the Hack-A-Jordan strategy to disrupt Los Angeles' rhythm.
Griffin relied on his jump shot more than ever this season, and showed an ability to knock down midrange jumpers, sometimes at the expense of driving to the basket and getting to the free throw line. If the Spurs are overly concerned with the 3-point arc and wrapping up Jordan in the paint, there may be room for Griffin to work in the midrange areas.
When the Spurs have the ball ...
When San Antonio is at their best, they mix ball movement with screens, picks and misdirection, creating a symphony of hoops resulting in open shots. And when the offense breaks down, their Duncan, Parker and Ginobili can generally create quality looks at the end of the shot clock.
As established, the Clippers aren't a lights-out defensive team, but they do present some unique challenges. Paul is a bulldog on the perimeter, and Jordan is a terrific rim protector as well as rebounder. The Spurs can and likely will solve these issues with ball movement and patience, but they aren't simple problems.
The Spurs will stress playing with pace and space, but the Clippers are a team to whom playing uptempo will be agreeable -- the Clippers finished 10th in the league in pace to San Antonio's 17th (http://stats.nba.com/league/team/#!/advanced/?sort=PACE&dir=1). But speed isn't the answer to everything. The Clippers may have the pedal to the medal, but the Spurs make the right decisions, time and again.
In the clutch
For the Clippers, it all goes through Paul. The ball will be in his hands, with the decisions left to him as far who gets the ball. Paul is a competent outside shooter and has a solid midrange jumper. Griffin showed off a much-improved outside shot this season, often to the detriment of driving to the basket and drawing a foul. As important as Jordan was to the Clippers this season, his free throw shooting makes him a liability in late-game situations.
As far as the Spurs, well, pick your poison. They have three probable Hall of Famers in Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, each of whom has experience knocking down big shots. And even though guys like Danny Green (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/daniel_green/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) or Leonard lack the experience, they don't lack the guts or guile to make or take a clutch shot. Probably most importantly, the Spurs will simply look to get the ball to the guy with the best opportunity to make the best shot. Which could be anyone on the team. Which is exactly what makes the Spurs so dangerous.
Wild cards
For all the talk about the Clippers' Big Three (Paul, Griffin, Jordan), their third-leading scorer this season was actually J.J. Redick, who averaged 16.4 ppg and attempted nearly 6 three-pointers per game. The Clippers run Redick off a never-ending series of screens, meaning the Spurs will have to find a defender (or, more likely, a series of defenders) who can keep up with Redick and chase him off the 3-point line.
Griffin presents an obvious matchup problem for the Spurs. Duncan may be the greatest power forward of all-time, but at this point he likely can't keep up with Griffin, and is probably better suited to boxing out Jordan. The Spurs could possibly put Tiago Splitter (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/tiago_splitter/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) on Griffin and try to eat as many minutes as possible with that matchup. If Splitter find foul trouble, wily veteran Boris Diaw (http://www.nba.com/playerfile/boris_diaw/?iref:nba:story_page:playerfile) may get a shot as well.
Prediction
A couple of 55-plus win teams going at it in the first round of the playoffs? That's where we are now, as the power-heavy Western Conference gives us this clash of the titans. The Clippers have won a lot of games since coach Doc Rivers and Paul arrived, but they haven't won anything in the postseason of substance. This series gives them the opportunity to do exactly that. Meanwhile, the Spurs dynasty has to come to an end at some point, but these players don't seem to have much interest in it happening on their watch. Spurs in 7.