New cap projection puts us at 13mil cap space

[Cklbmk]

13mil assuming we keep Danny and Kawhi's holds and renounce everyone else.

My order of tries would be.

1. Offer Gasol 13mil
2. Offer Aldridge 13mil
3. Offer Greg Monroe 13mil
4. See if I can get Khris Middleton for cheaper than Danny Green
5. Maybe offer Monta Ellis 10mil~ to come try to be Manu for a couple years
6. Offer Deng 6-8mil

If all of these fail(likely)


Try to get KJ Mcdaniels with a Lin type contract.
Try to get Brandon Bass with the rest
See if Lin is available for really cheap
Bring over Livio
Try to ninja Antic from the Hawks
If Wes Matthews is cheap.. take a flyer on him


Side note. I didn't realize Bertans tore his ACL again. That blows.



What do you want to spend the cap space on? Are you willing to lose Danny or Tiago for Aldridge or Gasol or Love?

[Robz4000]

1. Keep Leonard
2. Keep Green
3. Convince Tim to keep playing
4. ???????
5. Profit

[BillMc]

1. Keep Leonard
2. Keep Green
3. Convince Tim to keep playing
4. ???????
5. Profit

THis

[Cklbmk]

1. Keep Leonard
2. Keep Green
3. Convince Tim to keep playing
4. ???????
5. Profit

What do you do with the cap space? Do you think Tim would take the MLE if we could add a Manu replacement with the extra money

[Richie]

If Gasol or Aldridge want to come, we can dump Splitter or Green to get max room. If we're bringing in a big man, I'd rather it be Splitter.

[Gagnrath]

If Gasol or Aldridge want to come, we can dump Splitter or Green to get max room. If we're bringing in a big man, I'd rather it be Splitter.


Under no circumstances do you dump green. He's not going to be cheap but he's over himself at this point, he fits well into the spurs system is very good defensively and can guard most small forwards and pretty much all guards at both spots. With green the key is a 3 year with 4th year team option. You use that contract and look to trade it in the 3rd year.

[BillMc]

Under no circumstances do you dump green. He's not going to be cheap but he's over himself at this point, he fits well into the spurs system is very good defensively and can guard most small forwards and pretty much all guards at both spots. With green the key is a 3 year with 4th year team option. You use that contract and look to trade it in the 3rd year.

Agreed

[FkLA]

Yeah, keeping Green should be priority 1b right after Kawhi. You don't break up WingStop, especially since the Spurs have arguably the worst defensive PG in the league.

Other than that it's really hard to project anything until we know Timmy and Manu's plans. I really want Afflalo on the team though, regardless of whether they retire or not. Have him eat up minutes at both SG and SF--I think he can be had for 7-9 mill/yr. Burn, bury and take a piss on Belli tbh.

[manufan10]

Yeah, keeping Green should be priority 1b right after Kawhi. You don't break up WingStop, especially since the Spurs have arguably the worst defensive PG in the league.



And TP is not going to get any better on defense either. In fact, he'll probably wind up getting worse once he starts losing his speed.

[Andthentherewas21]

Yeah, keeping Green should be priority 1b right after Kawhi. You don't break up WingStop, especially since the Spurs have arguably the worst defensive PG in the league.

Other than that it's really hard to project anything until we know Timmy and Manu's plans. I really want Afflalo on the team though, regardless of whether they retire or not. Have him eat up minutes at both SG and SF--I think he can be had for 7-9 mill/yr. Burn, bury and take a piss on Belli tbh.

So you don't want Parker (a guy with a career 104 defensive rating, and 107 this season) but you want a SG/SF which is more important defensively and has a career defensive rating of 111 and had his only season below 110 this year at 108? Interesting...

Quick correction, he was at 111 for the 2014-2015 season, his 108 was for his 25 games in Portland.

[dbestpro]

So you don't want Parker (a guy with a career 104 defensive rating, and 107 this season) but you want a SG/SF which is more important defensively and has a career defensive rating of 111 and had his only season below 110 this year at 108? Interesting...

Just curious, but what are these ratings based on, and where did they come from?

[Andthentherewas21]

Just curious, but what are these ratings based on, and where did they come from?

Basketball Reference.

Defensive Rating estimates how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions he individually faced while on the court.

The core of the Defensive Rating calculation is the concept of the individual Defensive Stop. Stops take into account the instances of a player ending an opposing possession that are tracked in the boxscore (blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds), in addition to an estimate for the number of forced turnovers and forced misses by the player which aren't captured by steals and blocks.

The formula for Stops is:

Stops = Stops1 + Stops2
where:

Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)
FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)
DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB)
DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA
Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2
Also necessary is the calculation of Stop%, which is the rate at which a player forces a defensive stop as a percentage of individual possessions faced (essentially the inverse of Floor%, but for defenders):

Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP)
With those numbers in hand, individual Defensive Rating can be computed:

DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating)
where:

Team_Defensive_Rating = 100 * (Opponent_PTS / Team_Possessions)
D_Pts_per_ScPoss = Opponent_PTS / (Opponent_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2) * Opponent_FTA*0.4)

[FkLA]

So you don't want Parker (a guy with a career 104 defensive rating, and 107 this season) but you want a SG/SF which is more important defensively and has a career defensive rating of 111 and had his only season below 110 this year at 108? Interesting...

Quick correction, he was at 111 for the 2014-2015 season, his 108 was for his 25 games in Portland.

Are you suggesting Enrique is a better defender than Afflalo, moron? He's spent most of his career in Denver and Orlando. The former was a run and gun team and the latter was a dumpster fire during his stints there. The fact that his teams weren't good defensively doesn't change the fact that he himself is a good defender, just like the Spurs being a good defensive team doesn't make Enrique a good defender.

[FkLA]

Basketball Reference.

Defensive Rating estimates how many points the player allowed per 100 possessions he individually faced while on the court.

The core of the Defensive Rating calculation is the concept of the individual Defensive Stop. Stops take into account the instances of a player ending an opposing possession that are tracked in the boxscore (blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds), in addition to an estimate for the number of forced turnovers and forced misses by the player which aren't captured by steals and blocks.

The formula for Stops is:

Stops = Stops1 + Stops2
where:

Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)
FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)
DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB)
DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA
Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2
Also necessary is the calculation of Stop%, which is the rate at which a player forces a defensive stop as a percentage of individual possessions faced (essentially the inverse of Floor%, but for defenders):

Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP)
With those numbers in hand, individual Defensive Rating can be computed:

DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating)
where:

Team_Defensive_Rating = 100 * (Opponent_PTS / Team_Possessions)
D_Pts_per_ScPoss = Opponent_PTS / (Opponent_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2) * Opponent_FTA*0.4)

In other words extremely dependent on the team. Belli has been a shit defender his entire career yet his DRtg magically went from 115 his rookie year, to 107 in Chicago, to 106 and 105 in SA. DRPM gives a much better idea of individual defense.

[Andthentherewas21]

Are you suggesting Enrique is a better defender than Afflalo, moron? He's spent most of his career in Denver and Orlando. The former was a run and gun team and the latter was a dumpster fire during his stints there. The fact that his teams weren't good defensively doesn't change the fact that he himself is a good defender, just like the Spurs being a good defensive team doesn't make Enrique a good defender.

No that's you inferring, retard. The point was that you provided no evidence that Parker was a below average defender while suggesting that the Spurs go after a player who statistically hasn't shown to be a great defender. The fact that Afflalo's teams weren't great defensively doesn't somehow make him a great defender despite it all and Parker a worse one for being on a good defensive team.

I get the whole hating on Parker schtick, and he hasn't been great this season, but at least support your shitty takes

[FkLA]

No that's you inferring, retard. The point was that you provided no evidence that Parker was a below average defender while suggesting that the Spurs go after a player who statistically hasn't shown to be a great defender. The fact that Afflalo's teams weren't great defensively doesn't somehow make him a great defender despite it all and Parker a worse one for being on a good defensive team.

I get the whole hating on Parker schtick, and he hasn't been great this season, but at least support your shitty takes

Look at my sig, moron. What more proof do you need? He's 82nd out of 83 PGs in DRPM. Not to mention the fact that we see marginal players like Ray MaCallum, Langston Galloway and Norris Cole go off on him on a regular basis.

Also what part of DRtg being extremely dependent on team defense do you not understand? Shit defenders like Enrique and Belli will have a lower DRtg than a guy like Afflalo simply for being on the Spurs.

[Andthentherewas21]

Look at my sig, moron. What more proof do you need? He's 82nd out of 83rd PGs in DRPM. Not to mention the fact that we see marginal players like Ray MaCallum, Langston Galloway and Norris Cole go off on him on a regular basis.

Also what part of DRtg being extremely dependent on team defense do you not understand? Shit defenders like Enrique and Belli will have a lower DRtg than a guy like Afflalo simply for being on the Spurs.

So because your a Leonard fan you can't be a Parker fan? So your not a Spurs fan?

I'll admit that Drtg is team dependent so let's use DPRM as you suggest. In 2013-2014 Parker's DPRM was -0.4 (25th) , Afflalo's was -2.95 (66th). In 2014-2015 Parker's was -3.66 (82nd) and Afflalo's was -1.52 (65th). Now Parker was visibly hobbled by a hamstring injury for the better part of the season, but perhaps he has declined quite a bit. What's Afflalo's excuse for the poor defensive production and his placement on the list?

[vander]

Most productive thing Spurs can do this off season is unload Parker somehow. Then go get Dragic. Keep the rest of the team intact, except Manu, hopefully he retires

[RD2191]

Most productive thing Spurs can do this off season is unload Parker somehow. Then go get Dragic. Keep the rest of the team intact, except Manu, hopefully he retires
Agreed.

[FkLA]

So because your a Leonard fan you can't be a Parker fan? So your not a Spurs fan?

I'll admit that Drtg is team dependent so let's use DPRM as you suggest. In 2013-2014 Parker's DPRM was -0.4 (25th) , Afflalo's was -2.95 (66th). In 2014-2015 Parker's was -3.66 (82nd) and Afflalo's was -1.52 (65th). Now Parker was visibly hobbled by a hamstring injury for the better part of the season, but perhaps he has declined quite a bit. What's Afflalo's excuse for the poor defensive production and his placement on the list?

I don't mind Enrique when he isn't hurting the team.

No, the hamstring excuse doesn't fly. He's been progressively dropping throughout the season and looks to have now settled at 82nd, at no point did he start moving up once he got 'healthy'. Afflalo usually has the responsibility of guarding the opposing team's best wing, he's no Kawhi or Danny but he'd be an ideal back-up to both. I'll admit I assumed his DRPM would've been better (I'd like to see what it's been in just Portland) but he's still a huge upgrade over Belli.

[Johnny RIngo]

That Parker extension is looking really terrible now. No idea why they didn't just wait one more year before reupping Tony. Would have gotten him cheap after the mediocre season he's had this year.

[CGD]

It seems like this would be the summer to overpay for someone you really like. Those deals will at worst be neutral deals in 2 years and at best huge bargains. In this light, I like the scenario raised above for signing Danny.

Other than Gasol or Aldridge (and resigning their own FAs) I'm not sure who else fits that bill for the Spurs though. I will say that the Spurs have a lot to offer either of those guys, chief among them a turnkey situation for immediate championship contention, and I'm not so quick to say landing one of them is impossible (sure, it'll be hard).

The Spurs have made a commitment to reloading, over rebuilding, since they moved away from George Hill. In the last two seasons the big three have given way to a solid "medium" three of green, splitter, and Leonard. Looking ahead Parker still has a few good years left, and Leonard will only get better.

Is memphis' (or even portland) plan that much better? I look at the Grizz in particular and really don't see a framework for the future. Zach and Allen, who are a huge part of that teams grit and grind identity, are aging. The team has not evolved offensively, and have been unable (unwilling?) to land reliable outside shooting for several years now which has done them in in the playoffs for several years now. I say the Grizz are more positioned to be in rebuild mode in two years than they are reload mode.

And coming back to the cap, if those teams are banking on being able to offer the most money then the new salary cap projections actually undercut Memphis (and portlands) leverage this summer. If you're that driven by the money, wouldn't you sign a short term deal and look for a better pay day once the cap adjusts? I'm not saying Gasol or Aldridge are leaving their situations, but they'll definitely have something to think about especially if you're the one bounced in round one.

[dbestpro]

So you don't want Parker (a guy with a career 104 defensive rating, and 107 this season) but you want a SG/SF which is more important defensively and has a career defensive rating of 111 and had his only season below 110 this year at 108? Interesting...

Quick correction, he was at 111 for the 2014-2015 season, his 108 was for his 25 games in Portland.

It actually shows Danny green's rating @100 for this year, which makes him the number 1 defensive starting SG for 2014-15. (starting means they started more than half of the games). By the same token, Parker is tied for 14th with 3 other PGs, so he is not the worst starting defensive PG (2014-15), but he is not the best. Danny Green shows to have had an excellent defensive year.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2015_per_poss.html

[CGD]

That Parker extension is looking really terrible now. No idea why they didn't just wait one more year before reupping Tony. Would have gotten him cheap after the mediocre season he's had this year.

To the contrary, I would say it makes his deal more bearable.

[Das Texan]

I would just sign a better big and then S&T Splitter to whatever team had hte former big man.

[cjw]

Wanting to swap Splitter for Monroe (how's that D working out?) :lol
KJ McDaniels on a Lin contract :lol
Thinking you'll get any max guy to sign for $13mm when cap is going to skyrocket :lol
Deng is toast :lol and that would require him to opt out

Offseason = convince Tim/Manu to come back for as little as possible, make sure you have a deal in place with Green to sign after you're done using cap space, sign Kawhi to max once cap space is used, and try to fill 1-2 more solid guys to replace Marco/backup big/PG if CoJo walks.

[BackHome]

1. Hope Timmy and Manu return
2. Get a center I hate Splitter being so Brittle I would not mind keeping Baynes but get rid of Errors
3. Get a SG who has the ability to keep his dribble alive and create and shot and play defense
4. Sign/Keep Kawhi and Green
5. So For Sure we have two new players replacing Bonner and Errors...

[Sean Cagney]

Under no circumstances do you dump green. He's not going to be cheap but he's over himself at this point, he fits well into the spurs system is very good defensively and can guard most small forwards and pretty much all guards at both spots. With green the key is a 3 year with 4th year team option. You use that contract and look to trade it in the 3rd year.
Green is very key to this team, agreed.

[Chinook]

Spurs should have let Patty walk and given Parker about $10 Million a year.

Now, I'd keep Cory and do my best to sign one of the FA bigs with the rest of the cap space. Though that's only if both Tim and Manu leave. If only one does (or neither) then it's just using the MLE and mYbe S&Ting Cory/Aron for talent.

[Mr Bones]

I just don't see any of the big free agents-- Gasol, Aldridge, Millsap, Monroe-- coming to San Antonio. I was high on Middleton all season, but I think Milwaukee has every intention of keeping him now, and he's restricted so that's very unlikely. I would hope the Spurs go after a few bargains:

Jonas Jerebko, who'd be an upgrade over Bonner.
Jared Dudley, who'd be an upgrade over Belinelli.
Brandan Wright, who'd be an upgrade over Ayres.

Re-sign Kawhi, Green, and Joseph, and then explore trade possibilities.

[pgardn]

Yeah, keeping Green should be priority 1b right after Kawhi. You don't break up WingStop, especially since the Spurs have arguably the worst defensive PG in the league.

Other than that it's really hard to project anything until we know Timmy and Manu's plans. I really want Afflalo on the team though, regardless of whether they retire or not. Have him eat up minutes at both SG and SF--I think he can be had for 7-9 mill/yr. Burn, bury and take a piss on Belli tbh.

Jesus.

I agree with most of this.

But then you had to keep going with the overstated Tony hate...

[Spurs21Fan4Ever]

Duncan returns for a three-peat and persuades Anthony Davis to take a temporary paycut to learn from the best.

[pgardn]

Duncan returns for a three-peat and persuades Anthony Davis to take a temporary paycut to learn from the best.

Very wet dream.

[Spurs21Fan4Ever]

Very wet dream.
Sometimes even the wettest of dreams come true.

[Gagnrath]

I don't have any real inside info on this but from past comments I can see Aldridge entertaining offers from San Antonio the issue is that its contingent on being a max offer and that Duncan plays at least 2 more years and keeping Kahwi.

[Spur|n|Austin]

1. Keep Leonard
2. Keep Green
3. Convince Tim to keep playing
4. ???????
5. Profit

Yeah this is pretty much the route I hope the organization takes. If spurs ring again I think Tim may walk though, and I don't have a problem with that.

[baseline bum]

1. Keep Leonard
2. Keep Green
3. Convince Tim to keep playing
4. ???????
5. Profit

4. Convince Manu to keep playing

[Robz4000]

4. Convince Manu to keep playing

I think Manu's done after this season unless he has a dominant postseason.

[ElNono]

bring everybody back for the minimum.... why not?

[TXstbobcat]

Most productive thing Spurs can do this off season is unload Parker somehow. Then go get Dragic. Keep the rest of the team intact, except Manu, hopefully he retires

Sounds like Dragic likes it in Miami and wants to sign a max deal there.

[BatManu20]

Sign and trade Danny for Gasol IMO.

[CGD]

Going to be interesting to see how Anthony Davis pursues the next two years in light of this cap increase. Not saying he's leaving NOLA, but you would think he has reduced incentive to sign an extension early.

Also, Ironically, the pelis making the playoffs means more Monty Williams (as opposed to signing Thibbs had they lost). The Monty suck factor could be something to watch next year.

[SpurPadre]

But...tspence thinks we can get both Gasol AND Aldridge...

[Beaverfuzz]

If Gasol or Aldridge want to come, we can dump Splitter or Green to get max room. If we're bringing in a big man, I'd rather it be Splitter.

Nope, you keep Splitter as the backup and dump Reggie/Bonner.

[ducks]

Davis can ran his coach out of town

[wildbill2u]

I'm trying to remember any major free agent the Spurs have ever attracted. The only one I can think of is Michael Finley and most of his salary was paid for by the Mavericks. Can anyone come up with another name?

Our past lack of success doesn't mean we absolutely have no chance--but as a lot of folks have noted over a long period of years, San Antonio is simply not a preferred destination by most free agents with great skills.

[CGD]

I'm trying to remember any major free agent the Spurs have ever attracted. The only one I can think of is Michael Finley and most of his salary was paid for by the Mavericks. Can anyone come up with another name?

Our past lack of success doesn't mean we absolutely have no chance--but as a lot of folks have noted over a long period of years, San Antonio is simply not a preferred destination by most free agents with great skills.

With all respect this argument doesn't hold water.

It's been talked about before on ST: since 2003 the Spurs just haven't had the cap space to be big players in FA. In 2003, Jason Kidd came very close to signing here. It's not an SA thing, it's a money thing.

Well what about the endorsements in the big market? Today, the top two shoe deal holders in the NBA play for Cleveland and OKC. Damian Lillard and Westbrook live in small markets too and do well on the marketing front. By the way, this isn't new: in 1995 two of the top shoe endorsement played for the same team: huge market Orlando. Nothing new other than social media has made location even that much more irrelevant.

Well then it has to be the lifestyle of living in a large market. By the way people who hold that view must be only talking about NYC, LA, MIA, Bay Area, and frigid Chicago. But leaving that aside, the bulk of NBA players own homes in 3 states: http://hoopshype.com/real_estate.htm
This suggest most make their homes other than where they play ball.

If and when the Spurs have enough money, they'll be FA players.

[TXstbobcat]

With all respect this argument doesn't hold water.

It's been talked about before on ST: since 2003 the Spurs just haven't had the cap space to be big players in FA. In 2003, Jason Kidd came very close to signing here. It's not an SA thing, it's a money thing.

Well what about the endorsements in the big market? Today, the top two shoe deal holders in the NBA play for Cleveland and OKC. Damian Lillard and Westbrook live in small markets too and do well on the marketing front. By the way, this isn't new: in 1995 two of the top shoe endorsement played for the same team: huge market Orlando. Nothing new other than social media has made location even that much more irrelevant.

Well then it has to be the lifestyle of living in a large market. By the way people who hold that view must be only talking about NYC, LA, MIA, Bay Area, and frigid Chicago. But leaving that aside, the bulk of NBA players own homes in 3 states: http://hoopshype.com/real_estate.htm
This suggest most make their homes other than where they play ball.

If and when the Spurs have enough money, they'll be FA players.


Thank you for posting that link. Kind of interesting to see where some NBA players own homes.

[RD2191]

Most players don't come here because they honestly don't give a shit about winning or if they do they don't want people to think their success is only because of the system, Pop, Tim, etc etc. That's it.

[cd021]

If the Spurs stash their pick and ship Mills for a pick they could up that number to $17.5 million. It was a long shot to have max cap space. I'd rather keep Baynes, Cojo, Green, Mills and KL. If Manu comes back, for around $ 4 million. We could have around $8 million to use on a PF. Brandan Wright would be a nice add (in the $5-7 million range) . He ,obviously, wouldn't replace Duncan but would be productive. We would still have the room exception and can bring over LJC without cutting into the cap.

[K...]

Computer...detect levels of fantasy in thread

Dangerous levels of fantasy deducted

Dear gods! Who is going to pull us back! Abandon thread before we all go insane with delusion!


Hi folks. The time for complaining about Parker's contract is over. It's done. You can trade Parker but his value is average don't expect much from him.

Point guard is not our most needed upgrade. I'm willing to role the dice on another ball carrier-but that's for two to three years from now.

[Chinook]

13mil assuming we keep Danny and Kawhi's holds and renounce everyone else.

My order of tries would be.

1. Offer Gasol 13mil
2. Offer Aldridge 13mil
3. Offer Greg Monroe 13mil
4. See if I can get Khris Middleton for cheaper than Danny Green
5. Maybe offer Monta Ellis 10mil~ to come try to be Manu for a couple years
6. Offer Deng 6-8mil

If all of these fail(likely)


Try to get KJ Mcdaniels with a Lin type contract.
Try to get Brandon Bass with the rest
See if Lin is available for really cheap
Bring over Livio
Try to ninja Antic from the Hawks
If Wes Matthews is cheap.. take a flyer on him


Side note. I didn't realize Bertans tore his ACL again. That blows.



What do you want to spend the cap space on? Are you willing to lose Danny or Tiago for Aldridge or Gasol or Love?

btb, where'd you get the $13 Million number from? Spurs have $52.1 Million in committed salary and holds (Green and Leonard along with LJC, the pick and roster charges) while the cap is projected to be $67.1 Million. If they can get Cory to take the room exception, they can just eek out a max slot by trading Mills (though ideally they'd trade Mills and the first for a really strong overseas prospect to give themselves even more breathing room).