Bill Russell’s Celtics Were Great. Tim Duncan’s Spurs Have Been Better

[Old School 44]

Interesting article from FiveThirtyEightSports.

Bill Russell’s Celtics Were Great. Tim Duncan’s Spurs Have Been Better
By Nate Silver

WTF, nerds? You’re telling us that this season’s Golden State Warriors, who haven’t won anything yet, are better than Bill Russell’s Celtics, who won eight titles in a row and 11 in 13 seasons?

Actually, no. It would be ridiculous to say that. Last week, we released an interactive graphic, “The Complete History of the NBA (http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/the-complete-history-of-every-nba-team-by-elo/),” which uses a relatively simple formula called Elo (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-we-calculate-nba-elo-ratings/) to rate NBA teams. Indeed, it currently ranks this year’s Warriors as the fourth-best team in NBA history (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-nba-teams-of-all-time-according-to-elo/), although they may rise or fall depending on how the rest of their playoff run goes. Meanwhile, no single season from the 1960s Celtics dynasty ranks higher than 47th on the all-time list.

But Elo’s claim is that the 2014-15 Warriors season has been better than any single season in the Celtics’ run. In terms of long-term accomplishments, of course, it’s not even close. The 1960s Celtics’ competition comes, instead, from about who you’d expect: the 1990s Bulls, the current Spurs dynasty and the 1980s Lakers and Celtics.

Read more... (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bill-russells-celtics-were-great-tim-duncans-spurs-have-been-better/)

[Old School 44]

From the article, the author gives his definition of "dynasty" as when the Elo rating stays above 1500.


The longest streak of above-average play belongs to the San Antonio Spurs. Their Elo rating rose above 1500 on Jan. 3, 1998, and hasn’t fallen below it since (http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/the-complete-history-of-every-nba-team-by-elo/#spurs), a period that covers more than 17 years, or 1,644 games and counting. That’s impressive even compared to the Celtics, who had an above-average Elo rating from March 14, 1956 to Nov. 12, 1969. Insanely great — 13.5 years and 1,198 games — but not as great as the Spurs.

[Phenomanul]

I was looking at that ELO metric the other day and thinking that since it is based on margin of victories, that the Popovich mindset isn't factored in... In other words, Pop doesn't run up the score in favor of more rest for his players (this is especially true post 2008 or so)...

In other words, the Spurs could have amassed more ELO points (a higher rating) had Pop been willing to wear out his stars (which isn't a good thing)... Looking back at this season, the Spurs beat these "historic" Warriors by a sum of over 30 ELO points... guess we will never know what would've happened had they met in the Playoffs... Game 82 will haunt us for a long time... :(

[FromWayDowntown]

Game 82 will haunt us for a long time... :(

If you look at it that way, the game in New York (or the home losses to Cleveland, Memphis, Portland, Detroit) could equally be the culprit.

I tend to think that the failure to put the Clippers out of their misery in the 2nd quarter of Game 6 was the point of true failure for the Spurs in 2014-15; that, and the failure to hold the late lead in Game 7, but that was par for the course for the Spurs in 2014-15.

[TampaDude]

The Duncan-era Spurs are the greatest NBA dynasty of all time. Yup. Eat it, Laker fans! :lol

[bigfan]

Statistical masturbation.

[Old School 44]

I was looking at that ELO metric the other day and thinking that since it is based on margin of victories, that the Popovich mindset isn't factored in... In other words, Pop doesn't run up the score in favor of more rest for his players (this is especially true post 2008 or so)...


Thinking the same thing as I was reading the article. There are quite a few games that Pop basically sacrificed for rest and bench development. Also, there were a few of those 17 seasons where the playoff position was locked and the Spurs coasted through the last couple weeks of the season giving up a few more games.

[therealtruth]

Pop's the greatest regular season coach of all time. Playoffs is a different story. If he could translate his regular season success into the playoffs he would have alot more championships.

[SpurPadre]

Pop's the greatest regular season coach of all time. Playoffs is a different story. If he could translate his regular season success into the playoffs he would have alot more championships.

You can't coach your way out of devastating injuries to TD and Manu at separate playoffs, Fisher' s .04, fouling Dirk in Game 7, and missed fts in Game 6 (yes pulling TD in that one defensive stand is a point of contention but still). Those aren't on Pop.

[exstatic]

What a lot of people don't realize is that for those early Celtics teams, two playoff series wins got you a trophy. How man times have we done that?

[lefty]

Fat Porker would have posted up Cousy with his fat ass

[Clipper Nation]

You can't coach your way out of devastating injuries to TD and Manu at separate playoffs, Fisher' s .04, fouling Dirk in Game 7, and missed fts in Game 6 (yes pulling TD in that one defensive stand is a point of contention but still). Those aren't on Pop.

Poop could have benched Porker for all three of those games and likely won, because Porker choked all three of those series away.

[Uriel]

If you look at it that way, the game in New York (or the home losses to Cleveland, Memphis, Portland, Detroit) could equally be the culprit.

I tend to think that the failure to put the Clippers out of their misery in the 2nd quarter of Game 6 was the point of true failure for the Spurs in 2014-15; that, and the failure to hold the late lead in Game 7, but that was par for the course for the Spurs in 2014-15.

I was looking at that ELO metric the other day and thinking that since it is based on margin of victories, that the Popovich mindset isn't factored in... In other words, Pop doesn't run up the score in favor of more rest for his players (this is especially true post 2008 or so)...

In other words, the Spurs could have amassed more ELO points (a higher rating) had Pop been willing to wear out his stars (which isn't a good thing)... Looking back at this season, the Spurs beat these "historic" Warriors by a sum of over 30 ELO points... guess we will never know what would've happened had they met in the Playoffs... Game 82 will haunt us for a long time... :(
Painful read.

:depressed