boutons
09-10-2005, 12:29 PM
washingtonpost.com
Bush Losing Support From His Base
By Dan Froomkin
Special to washingtonpost.com
Friday, September 9, 2005; 1:36 PM
Through thick and thin, President Bush has always maintained the ferocious backing of his Republican base.
Until now?
As I wrote in yesterday's column , partisan squabbles are something the Bush White House has found it can handle just fine, because the base hangs tough. But public outrage over the Hurricane Katrina debacle has the potential to transcend politics as usual.
And quite possibly, something is up.
According to the latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press , Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped to 40 percent -- an all-time low for this/that poll -- and his disapproval rating has climbed to an all-time high of 52 percent. That's a four-point shift in both numbers from July.
But look at the detailed results for the story behind the story.
That four percentage point shift from just two months ago isn't fueled by any significant change of mind among Democrats and independents. Instead, it's all a reflection of a shift in Bush's base.
Republicans polled in July said they approved of Bush by an 88 to 9 percent margin. In September, that margin was 79 to 18, reflecting a 9 percent shift from approvers to disapprovers. That's a very significant change.
Pollsters, in fact, often look at the gap between two answers as the more telling number. By that reckoning, the gap between Republican approval and disapproval has dropped from 79 to 61 -- or 18 points.
Among conservative Republicans, there was an eight-point shift, from 91-6 to 84-14. (That's a 15-point change in the gap.)
Among moderate and liberal Republicans, there was an 11-point shift, from 81-15 to 70-26. (That's a 22-point change in the gap.)
Pew asked specifically about Bush's handling of Katrina relief efforts and found: "Two-in-three Americans (67 percent) believe he could have done more to speed up relief efforts, while just 28 percent think he did all he could to get them going quickly. . . .
"Fully 85 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of independents think the president could have done more to get aid to hurricane victims flowing more quickly. Republicans, on balance, feel the president did all he could to get relief efforts going, but even among his own partisans 40 percent say he could have done more."
Will Lester of the Associated Press has word of the latest AP-Ipsos poll, just out this morning: "Almost two-thirds, 65 percent, say the country is headed in the wrong direction -- up from 59 percent last month.
"President Bush's job approval was at 39 percent, the lowest point since AP-Ipsos began measuring public approval of Bush in December 2003."
And don't forget the two polls I mentioned yesterday -- from CBS and Zogby -- which showed disapproval with Bush's response to the hurricane at 58 percent and 60 percent, respectively.
Could the Bubble Be the Trouble?
Steven Thomma writes for Knight Ridder Newspapers: "As President Bush flew this week to the Gulf Coast for his second post-Katrina visit, an aide said the trip reflected Bush's usual routine of 'seeing as much as possible and getting information from different places.'
"Not quite.
"Bush did not visit with any angry evacuees in New Orleans. As Katrina approached, Bush and his top aides spent days apparently unaware that New Orleans might be flooded - despite many warnings, some from inside his own administration. Afterwards, he heaped praise on officials responsible for the slow and initially disorganized disaster-relief efforts. . . .
"None of this should be a surprise. Bush has a long record of avoiding critics, rewarding loyalty even in the face of failure and shunning - even punishing - those who disagree with him. . . .
"His style of isolating himself from unwelcome voices pleases his core supporters, who don't want him to compromise, but it sacrifices the broader public appeal that helped Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton weather second-term setbacks. One new poll, from the independent Pew Research Center, suggests he is losing support even from Republicans and conservatives."
Judy Keen and Richard Benedetto write in USA Today: "President Bush has shown that he can be empathetic, sensitive and decisive. But those qualities eluded him for days after Hurricane Katrina, and the lapse could become a defining moment of his White House tenure. . . .
"Bush has spoken before about the consequences of a leader's performance at moments such as this. In a 2000 debate with Democrat Al Gore, he was asked to describe how he handled crises under fire. 'It's the time to test your mettle,' Bush said then, 'a time to test your heart when you see people whose lives have been turned upside down.' "
......
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2005/09/09/BL2005090901150_5.html?referrer=emailarticlepg
Bush Losing Support From His Base
By Dan Froomkin
Special to washingtonpost.com
Friday, September 9, 2005; 1:36 PM
Through thick and thin, President Bush has always maintained the ferocious backing of his Republican base.
Until now?
As I wrote in yesterday's column , partisan squabbles are something the Bush White House has found it can handle just fine, because the base hangs tough. But public outrage over the Hurricane Katrina debacle has the potential to transcend politics as usual.
And quite possibly, something is up.
According to the latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press , Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped to 40 percent -- an all-time low for this/that poll -- and his disapproval rating has climbed to an all-time high of 52 percent. That's a four-point shift in both numbers from July.
But look at the detailed results for the story behind the story.
That four percentage point shift from just two months ago isn't fueled by any significant change of mind among Democrats and independents. Instead, it's all a reflection of a shift in Bush's base.
Republicans polled in July said they approved of Bush by an 88 to 9 percent margin. In September, that margin was 79 to 18, reflecting a 9 percent shift from approvers to disapprovers. That's a very significant change.
Pollsters, in fact, often look at the gap between two answers as the more telling number. By that reckoning, the gap between Republican approval and disapproval has dropped from 79 to 61 -- or 18 points.
Among conservative Republicans, there was an eight-point shift, from 91-6 to 84-14. (That's a 15-point change in the gap.)
Among moderate and liberal Republicans, there was an 11-point shift, from 81-15 to 70-26. (That's a 22-point change in the gap.)
Pew asked specifically about Bush's handling of Katrina relief efforts and found: "Two-in-three Americans (67 percent) believe he could have done more to speed up relief efforts, while just 28 percent think he did all he could to get them going quickly. . . .
"Fully 85 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of independents think the president could have done more to get aid to hurricane victims flowing more quickly. Republicans, on balance, feel the president did all he could to get relief efforts going, but even among his own partisans 40 percent say he could have done more."
Will Lester of the Associated Press has word of the latest AP-Ipsos poll, just out this morning: "Almost two-thirds, 65 percent, say the country is headed in the wrong direction -- up from 59 percent last month.
"President Bush's job approval was at 39 percent, the lowest point since AP-Ipsos began measuring public approval of Bush in December 2003."
And don't forget the two polls I mentioned yesterday -- from CBS and Zogby -- which showed disapproval with Bush's response to the hurricane at 58 percent and 60 percent, respectively.
Could the Bubble Be the Trouble?
Steven Thomma writes for Knight Ridder Newspapers: "As President Bush flew this week to the Gulf Coast for his second post-Katrina visit, an aide said the trip reflected Bush's usual routine of 'seeing as much as possible and getting information from different places.'
"Not quite.
"Bush did not visit with any angry evacuees in New Orleans. As Katrina approached, Bush and his top aides spent days apparently unaware that New Orleans might be flooded - despite many warnings, some from inside his own administration. Afterwards, he heaped praise on officials responsible for the slow and initially disorganized disaster-relief efforts. . . .
"None of this should be a surprise. Bush has a long record of avoiding critics, rewarding loyalty even in the face of failure and shunning - even punishing - those who disagree with him. . . .
"His style of isolating himself from unwelcome voices pleases his core supporters, who don't want him to compromise, but it sacrifices the broader public appeal that helped Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton weather second-term setbacks. One new poll, from the independent Pew Research Center, suggests he is losing support even from Republicans and conservatives."
Judy Keen and Richard Benedetto write in USA Today: "President Bush has shown that he can be empathetic, sensitive and decisive. But those qualities eluded him for days after Hurricane Katrina, and the lapse could become a defining moment of his White House tenure. . . .
"Bush has spoken before about the consequences of a leader's performance at moments such as this. In a 2000 debate with Democrat Al Gore, he was asked to describe how he handled crises under fire. 'It's the time to test your mettle,' Bush said then, 'a time to test your heart when you see people whose lives have been turned upside down.' "
......
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2005/09/09/BL2005090901150_5.html?referrer=emailarticlepg