Let’s Not Crown the San Antonio Spurs Prematurely

[Uriel]

Do the Pieces Fit? Let’s Not Crown the San Antonio Spurs Prematurely
Posted on July 17, 2015 (http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/17/do-the-pieces-fit-lets-not-crown-the-san-antonio-spurs-prematurely/) by Seth Partnow (http://nyloncalculus.com/author/seth-partnow/)

http://nyloncalculus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2015/07/tim-duncan-lamarcus-aldridge-nba-playoffs-portland-trail-blazers-san-antonio-spurs.jpg (http://nyloncalculus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2015/07/tim-duncan-lamarcus-aldridge-nba-playoffs-portland-trail-blazers-san-antonio-spurs.jpg)


In the wake of a(nother) stellar summer, securing the services of LaMarcus Aldridge and David West while locking up Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan to very team-friendly contracts, the reaction was instant and overwhelming. Despite Golden State bringing their entire core back from one of the more statistically and aesthetically (http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/05/30/a-game-of-runs-measuring-spurtability/) dominant teams in recent memory, San Antonio has been installed as the Western Conference championship favorite (http://www.oddsshark.com/nba/nba-futures) for the coming season.

While that line is soft, it still seems like a case of irrational exuberance on big news. Certainly, Aldridge is a very good-to great player and a better player than the departed Tiago Splitter, but how much better will he make the team? Will his offensive skills provide additional value or merely redistribute possessions among the various stars? Will he be able to replicate Splitter’s defensive versatility? How much of an age-related decline will there be from Duncan, Ginobili and Tony Parker?

The last is a complete unknown at this point, while it is perfectly reasonable to suspect Gregg Popovich will find a way to make it all work offensively. But how about the defense? After losing Splitter and Aron Baynes, San Antonio has a dearth of interior defense. On a per minute basis, Duncan remains one of the best rim protectors (http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/) and overall defenders in the league. But what happens the during the 40% of the game Duncan sits or nights when he logs a DNP-Old? Aldridge has a well-known aversion to manning the center position, and during both regular seasons, has graded out as a slightly below average rim protector on my metric (http://nyloncalculus.com/2014/07/22/protecting-paint-sportvu-rim-protection/), largely because of how infrequently he manages to actually contest shots.

Over the past season, he’s contested around 29% of opponents’ field goal attempts at the rim while he’s on the floor. League average for big men has been between 37 and 38%. However, there has appeared to be something of a positional effect. Unsurprisingly, centers are around the rim more than power forwards. Understanding that positional designations aren’t hard and fast, last season the average center contested around 45% of available shots, while the average power forwards was closes to 33%. So even by power forward standards, Aldridge has been on the low side.

Still, he has logged some time at center and those minutes might be somewhat instructive in terms of what he might be able to bring to the table. While the public SportVU data doesn’t allow for this kind of lineup parsing, a combination of SportVU shot logs and play-by-play based on-off data can provide a rough approximation. It is not strictly an apples-to-apples comparison as multiple players can be credited with a contest in the “Defensive Impact” accounting (http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/defense/), and a sizable proportion of shots which are blocked aren’t blocked by the closest defender, but rather by the second or third man into the play providing help.

That said, the correlation between shots contested at the rim and those contested as the primary defender is extremely high. As shown in the chart below, the correlation is just under 90% between Contest% as the primary defender and overall.

http://nyloncalculus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2015/07/contestcomps.jpg (http://nyloncalculus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2015/07/contestcomps.jpg)

The relationship is weaker between FG% allowed in the two scenarios, but still evident.

In any event, the overlap is close enough to allow for some comparisons between the rim protection contributions of players who swing between both positions. The chart below shows the output of some of the most notable players who swing between the two big positions last season. For sake of context, the average big man contested roughly 30% of all available rim shots as the primary defender:

http://nyloncalculus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2015/07/pfcomps.jpg (http://nyloncalculus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2015/07/pfcomps.jpg)

First of all, perhaps Greg Monroe’s reputation as a poor defender is overblown, in that in a more natural center role, he might show up better than in a system where he is asked to chase power forwards out to the arc and beyond.

Getting back to the Spurs, as the chart shows, Aldridge was on the low side in terms of Contest %, but not egregiously so, among this group while manning the power forward position. However, unlike the rest of the group, he saw no appreciable increase when sliding over to the center position. This is especially worrisome considering only Greg Monroe was more adept in this regard than was the man Aldridge is replacing in Tiago Splitter. With Duncan’s likely regular season minutes restrictions, this should be a cause of some alarm for San Antonio’s overall defense if they are completely lacking in another interior presence. All is not lost, Aldridge has shown more of an appetite for defending the rim in post-season play, upping his overall contest% (as either primary or secondary defender) to a more respectable 39.6% over the last two playoff years and holding opponents to only 42.8% shooting on those contests. So perhaps he is able to use his length and bulk effectively to deter shots at the rim, and just prefers to avoid taking the night in, night out contact during the regular season, and the culture of high expectations in San Antonio will convince him to do so more regularly. But maybe not, and if not, a lot is riding on the legs of a player who will turn 40 during the first round of the playoffs in Duncan.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/07/17/do-the-pieces-fit-lets-not-crown-the-san-antonio-spurs-prematurely/

[NASpurs]

tl;dr

Spurs in six.

[Nathan89]

Too many good teams to crown the spurs even if they remain healthy.

The biggest concern on the team is Tony and that's saying something considering Duncan turns 40 this year.

[spursparker9]

tldr :lobt2:

[benefactor]

tl;dr

Spurs in six.

[JakeCuenca]

Way too many good teams to crown the spurs that early. They're favourites, and rightfully so..but they have a few things they need to work on.

- Integrating Aldridge and West ( 90% sure they would be able to do so)
- Figuring the PnR D
- Injuries
- Parker's role

So many variables consider tbh.

[SpursforSix]

Dumb. If it was just Aldridge for Splitter, I'd agree. But the West signing is just as important. If they didn't get LA but still had Splitter and added West, I'd still think they were a contender.

[SpursFan86]

Too many good teams to crown the spurs even if they remain healthy.

The biggest concern on the team is Tony and that's saying something considering Duncan turns 40 this year.

My sentiments exactly

If Parker plays as poorly as he did last year, I'm not sure we have a chance at going all the way. If he can even get back to where he was in the 2014 regular season, that'd be a huge help to the team.

[TXstbobcat]

Let's play the season 1st before we all order championship hats ans t-shirts.

[HarlemHeat37]

Their argument in focus is valid, Splitter is a better defender than Aldridge, of course(and more importantly, a defensive role player with a defense-first mindset), but their entire article is focusing on 1 specific facet of the game:lol..

It's ignoring the positive attributes that Aldridge brings, the likelihood of a more diminished role in comparison to Portland(he had around a 30% usage rate in Portland in both the RS and playoffs for the past 3-4 years, he'll probably be around 25 in SA, which would potentially allow him to focus more on the defensive side of the ball, when needed), and going from a relatively poor defensive system in Portland(a gimmick system, essentially) to one of the better defensive systems in the NBA with the best perimeter defense duo that he has ever played with(and arguably in the entire league, at the moment)..

Of course you can't crown the Spurs, the West is stacked with the defending champs + an improved Thunder/Clippers to battle, along with the Tony Parker problem, but this article is kind of silly IMO..

[SpursFan86]

It's also worth noting that when Aldridge does contest FGAs at the rim, he does a really good job compared to other bigs around the league.

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/defense/?sort=FGP_DEFEND_RIM&dir=-1&CF=FGA_DEFEND_RIM*GE*5&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Out of players who contested 5 or more FGA at the rim, Aldridge came in at 6th in the league in terms of opponents FG% (45.1%) while contesting 6.1 FGA per game. For comparison, Duncan held opponents to 46.9% on FGA at the rim while contesting 9.1 FGA per game. Splitter allowed opponents to shoot 50% at the rim while contesting 5 FGA per game.

[JakeCuenca]

Let's not act like Aldridge is a terrible PnR defender please...

He's no splitter, but I do think he's decent enough to cover Kawhi and Danny.

TD is really the main problem in terms of PnR defense..Sad to say. :lol

[BatManu20]

Nothing we didn't already know in that article. And of course they shouldn't crown us, nor shouldn't anybody else. We're in the deepest/most difficult conference the NBA has seen, probably ever. But if healthy, I like our chances.

[HarlemHeat37]

It's also worth noting that when Aldridge does contest FGAs at the rim, he does a really good job compared to other bigs around the league.

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/defense/?sort=FGP_DEFEND_RIM&dir=-1&CF=FGA_DEFEND_RIM*GE*5&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Out of players who contested 5 or more FGA at the rim, Aldridge came in at 6th in the league in terms of opponents FG% (45.1%) while contesting 6.1 FGA per game. For comparison, Duncan held opponents to 46.9% on FGA at the rim while contesting 9.1 FGA per game. Splitter allowed opponents to shoot 50% at the rim while contesting 5 FGA per game.

He also does well as a post defender IIRC..

[SpursforSix]

Let's not act like Aldridge is a terrible PnR defender please...

He's no splitter, but I do think he's decent enough to cover Kawhi and Danny.

TD is really the main problem in terms of PnR defense..Sad to say. :lol

Interesting that it falls back on the Big 3 one more time. Can Duncan put up one more strong season? Can Parker recover to a level expected if a starting PG? Can Manu capture a little more if the electricity that he used to bring every game? To win a title, the answer to Parker and Duncan's questions has to be yes.

[HarlemHeat37]

On paper, Spurs/Warriors/Clippers/Thunder is probably the most difficult group of teams in a conference in NBA history, tbh, and it's exacerbated by having Memphis and Houston as peripherals, too..disgusting, you'll probably never see anything like that again IMO..

Every year we hear about how "tough" the West is, when in reality, the league has 2-3 contenders and a bunch of pretenders(regular season teams like Memphis and Chicago, for example) with nice regular season records, but you can probably pencil in those 4 teams as legit contenders + the Cavs, barring injuries..going to be tough..

[manufan10]

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/7f/56/b7/7f56b7756c0b835ab40baf699b4ef542.jpg

http://cdn1.bloguin.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/27/2013/05/971843_10200562005386757_90121850_n.jpg

[manufan10]

http://www.oddjack.com/wp-content/upLoads/san_antonio_spurs1.jpg

[therealtruth]

It's also worth noting that when Aldridge does contest FGAs at the rim, he does a really good job compared to other bigs around the league.

http://stats.nba.com/tracking/#!/player/defense/?sort=FGP_DEFEND_RIM&dir=-1&CF=FGA_DEFEND_RIM*GE*5&Season=2014-15&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

Out of players who contested 5 or more FGA at the rim, Aldridge came in at 6th in the league in terms of opponents FG% (45.1%) while contesting 6.1 FGA per game. For comparison, Duncan held opponents to 46.9% on FGA at the rim while contesting 9.1 FGA per game. Splitter allowed opponents to shoot 50% at the rim while contesting 5 FGA per game.

So he has the ability to do so when he wants. And we can't discount the defensive improvement he will make playing alongside a hall of fame defensive player in TD.

[SpursforSix]

http://www.oddjack.com/wp-content/upLoads/san_antonio_spurs1.jpg

Parker demoted to janitor. Bold but I like it.

[JakeCuenca]

Parker demoted to janitor. Bold but I like it.

:lol

[bigfan]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cu1JMbSLPvc

[JakeCuenca]

Interesting that it falls back on the Big 3 one more time. Can Duncan put up one more strong season? Can Parker recover to a level expected if a starting PG? Can Manu capture a little more if the electricity that he used to bring every game? To win a title, the answer to Parker and Duncan's questions has to be yes.

There is no TD question.

TD is still an elite player, but in a different way.

Parker is a huge question mark though..Not in terms of play, but in terms of how he is going to accept a role.

[spurraider21]

:lmao nba... just look at the contracts we signed in a 1 week span

C: Tim Duncan - 2 years, 10 mil
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge - 4 years, 80 mil
SF: Kawhi Leonard - 5 years, 90 mil
SG: Danny Green - 4 years, 40 mil

PF: David West - 1 year, 1.5 mil
SG: Manu Ginobili - not official yet, 2 years, 5.7 mil
C: Boban Marjanovic - 1 year, 1.2 mil

what a coup... our free agent class alone is a title contender

[SpursFan86]

He also does well as a post defender IIRC..

He does...ranked in the 88th percentile in terms of opponents' PPP in post-up situations.

He actually ranks well above average in practically every play type besides PnR (he's average there). A bit unfortunate since that's also the area where Duncan is lacking the most, but regardless, I think a lot of people underrate Aldridge as a defender. He's not "elite", but he's still a clear positive on that end and there's a chance we could see some improvement under Pop/Duncan.

[HarlemHeat37]

Interesting that it falls back on the Big 3 one more time. Can Duncan put up one more strong season? Can Parker recover to a level expected if a starting PG? Can Manu capture a little more if the electricity that he used to bring every game? To win a title, the answer to Parker and Duncan's questions has to be yes.

Duncan is a given, but Parker/Ginobili being key players is by default, even ignoring their past accomplishments..

Parker is the only traditional, conventional PG on the roster, and Ginobili is the only playmaker off the bench(unless you believe in Kyle Anderson, this season)..regardless of their current ability, they are essential due to the lack of alternatives..

[spurraider21]

Duncan is a given, but Parker/Ginobili being key players is by default, even ignoring their past accomplishments..

Parker is the only traditional, conventional PG on the roster, and Ginobili is the only playmaker off the bench(unless you believe in Kyle Anderson, this season)..regardless of their current ability, they are essential due to the lack of alternatives..
Diaw

[Mikeanaro]

Too late, SpursforSix already did it.

[SpursforSix]

There is no TD question.

TD is still an elite player, but in a different way.

Parker is a huge question mark though..Not in terms of play, but in terms of how he is going to accept a role.

I agree that TD is still elite. And it sure seems like he's got one or two years left at that level. He has the fundamentals down so well that he should continue to be effective. And he'll always be 7'. Parker is the biggest question in my mind. Ginobli will be a bonus if he has a good year. But my main point was that it's still the Big 3 that will determine if they ring again.

[HarlemHeat37]

Diaw

Sure, in the halfcourt, but he's not going to get the team into the offense..

[spursgu]

Am I missing something about OKC that they are already an automatic contender? I agree if healthy, they are a threat. But I just don't see Durant ever returning to his old form.

[spursistan]

Am I the only one to think a Manu mini-resurgence is more crucial to Parker regaining a bit of respectability ? Spurs haven't won titles when Ginobili isn't decent to good; he is the glue to our team..But yeah, i agree Parker forcing his historical medicority on the team like in the Clippers series will be too much to overcome even if Manu bounces back..

[ceperez]

Splitter's problem was that he wasn't healthy in the playoffs.

If he was, Spurs would at least have beaten the Clippers even with Parker limping along.

[Uriel]

Let's not act like Aldridge is a terrible PnR defender please...

He's no splitter, but I do think he's decent enough to cover Kawhi and Danny.

TD is really the main problem in terms of PnR defense..Sad to say. :lol
Are you that Jake Cuenca? :lol

[JakeCuenca]

Am I the only one to think a Manu mini-resurgence is more crucial to Parker regaining a bit of respectability ? Spurs haven't won titles when Ginobili isn't decent to good; he is the glue to our team..But yeah, i agree Parker forcing his historical medicority on the team like in the Clippers series will be too much to overcome even if Manu bounces back..

It's related bro.

In the last year and half, Parker has been awful so of course having a healthy Manu is important.

But at Manu's age, Parker accepting a role and playing at a starters level is crucial

[SpursforSix]

Am I the only one to think a Manu mini-resurgence is more crucial to Parker regaining a bit of respectability ? Spurs haven't won titles when Ginobili isn't decent to good; he is the glue to our team..But yeah, i agree Parker forcing his historical medicority on the team like in the Clippers series will be too much to overcome even if Manu bounces back..

Difference is that Parker has never been so inept as last season. He has never been that bad. If he can just get back to 75% of 2014, then it's huge.

[Dancelot]

This dude is also saying "what about all the DNP for Duncan"? That is not gonna happen in the playoffs. Even if he does sit, I think the Spurs will be just fine.

[YGWHI]

If Parker plays as poorly as he did last year, I'm not sure we have a chance at going all the way. If he can even get back to where he was in the 2014 regular season, that'd be a huge help to the team.

Health will always be an issue for aging PG's like Tony but I expect Aldridge's presence will compensate Parker's decline. If Kawhi and Lamarcus have a great season but Parker still plays poorly, it won't hurt the Spurs anymore.

[Kikoluna]

My biggest concern is Tony's Parker weight and Pop's emotional attachment to him. Pop refuses to bench him. Respect the loyalty but it might be our downfall again.

[SpursforSix]

Health will always be an issue for aging PG's like Tony but I expect Aldridge's presence will compensate Parker's decline. If Kawhi and Lamarcus have a great season but Parker still plays poorly, it won't hurt the Spurs anymore.

Sorry, but there is no way to compensate for a bad year from a starting PG. Not if they have to go through OKC, GS, LA, and Cavs. It's too much of a liability when those other teams are stacked like they are. I'd love to think that Patty or Mc can step up but it's not likely they could do it for a whole season if TP is bad.

[lefty20]

Spurs have clearly earned the right to be crowned champs.... free agency champs, that is. But yeah it's pretty crazy to go beyond that.

[offset formation]

On paper, Spurs/Warriors/Clippers/Thunder is probably the most difficult group of teams in a conference in NBA history, tbh, and it's exacerbated by having Memphis and Houston as peripherals, too..disgusting, you'll probably never see anything like that again IMO..

Every year we hear about how "tough" the West is, when in reality, the league has 2-3 contenders and a bunch of pretenders(regular season teams like Memphis and Chicago, for example) with nice regular season records, but you can probably pencil in those 4 teams as legit contenders + the Cavs, barring injuries..going to be tough..

yep-

[spurs10]

I agree that TD is still elite. And it sure seems like he's got one or two years left at that level. He has the fundamentals down so well that he should continue to be effective. And he'll always be 7'. Parker is the biggest question in my mind. Ginobli will be a bonus if he has a good year. But my main point was that it's still the Big 3 that will determine if they ring again. Well not as much so. There is a lot of torches being handed down. We can expect LMA, Kawhi, DG, Diaw, and West are sure to play a big part in this year's success.

[Russo21]

Give me Aldridge, West and giant Boban to pair with Duncan and Diaw over often injured Splitter and Baynes any day. Let's not pretend the front court didn't get heaps better. We've gone from 3 deep with Splitter always injured to a legit 5 man rotation at PF/C, one of which is a bonafide all-star year in year out and a tough as nails former all star.

[SpursforSix]

Give me Aldridge, West and giant Boban to pair with Duncan and Diaw over often injured Splitter and Baynes any day. Let's not pretend the front court didn't get heaps better. We've gone from 3 deep with one of those 3 always injured to a legit 5 man rotation at PF/C.

Can the incredulity. No one disputes they're better. But they aren't a laydown champ this year.

[Russo21]

Can the incredulity. No one disputes they're better. But they aren't a laydown champ this year.
I didn't say anything about Champs, I just said the front court is undeniably way better. Didn't mention the wings, guards, bench or the opposition.

[SpursforSix]

I didn't say anything about Champs, I just said the front court is undeniably way better. Didn't mention the wings, guards, bench or the opposition.

Whatever.

[100%duncan]

tl;dr

Spurs in six.

[Russ]

Am I missing something about OKC that they are already an automatic contender? I agree if healthy, they are a threat. But I just don't see Durant ever returning to his old form.

That's the elephant in the room. I think this was the third (?) surgery on his foot and apparently Durant still isn't running or jumping.

[Aztecfan03]

Diaw
possibly Simmons

[Brox6]

Hopefully Klaw can hit those game winners this season

[Astray]

Hopefully Klaw can hit those game winners this season

:lmao Don't count on it. Just give the ball to LMA.

[PingPong]

http://i.imgur.com/ukAltKR.jpg

[Silver&Black]

tl;dr

Spurs in six.

NASpurs....

My nigga.

[timtonymanu]

tl;dr

Spurs in six.

[HankChinaski]

I am expecting the same thing that happens every season with pop when we add new members to thr roster. His starting 5 lineups to 2nd unit off the bench mad scientist experimenting. First 25 games are going to be a strange stretch of who plays what and when starting and off the bench.

Really see them testing out offensive sets against lineups that match up to contenders we will have issues with as well as defensive lineups along the same parity.

I wonder how they will go about using this new front court and adapt / adjust the inside and out game with the .5 ball movement passing scheme. Curious to see the learning curve and adjustments with the roster and coaching staff how they go about implementing that.

Training camp and preseason can't get here soon enough for me though. Craziest off season for Spurs fans since Duncan decided to stay in San Antonio instead of going to Orlando.

[Uriel]

Lots of people in this thread crowning the Spurs prematurely, tbh. :lol

[HankChinaski]

I agree.

I have high hopes but have to wait and see what this team looks like going into the rodeo road trip.

[spursgu]

Lots of people in this thread crowning the Spurs prematurely, tbh. :lol

That will change when the Spurs have their inevitable slow start to the season haha.

[tatteredprince]

is it possible that we Spurs fans have the most stress this postseason?

its seems the pressure is on us Spurs fans, goodness.....

[tatteredprince]

Diaw


Mills say hello!

and Mccallum says hi!

[xellos88330]

If healthy, I expect the Spurs chances to win it all to be extremely high. I am not crowning the Spurs, but I just think this article is flawed and only focuses on one individual statistic. Defense is a team effort. How many times did Stoudemire and Nash go off on the Spurs? Sometimes in basketball, people are going to be able to score regardless of the type of defense on them. Hell, Kyrie Irving torched the Spurs while having only 2 of his shots being uncontested. Basketball cannot be limited to only one statistic and claim their chances are less.

[spursince#99]

"If you wanna crown em, then crown their ass"

[Mugen]

We can at least crown TP tbh:

http://www.polyvore.com/cgi/img-thing?.out=jpg&size=l&tid=15255427

[JakeCuenca]

^

:lol

[Silver&Black]

I've been crowning the Spurs champs in July and August for the past 15+ years....

Why would this year be any different?

[AFBlue]

I've been crowning the Spurs champs in July and August for the past 15+ years....

Why would this year be any different?

Same. Except in the Bonner-Finley starting years I knew I was lying to myself tbqh. This year, it doesn't feel like a lie.