Advanced stats predict the Spurs will win 60+ games next season

[Uriel]

Two different advanced statistical models have predicted that the Spurs will be a 60+ win team next season.

First, Kevin Pelton of ESPN (http://m.hupu.com/bbs/13133514.html) used a model based on real-plus minus to forecast that the Spurs will be +4.6 points per 100 possessions better than league average on offense and +6.0 points better on defense. That translates to a net rating of +10.6, not far off Golden State's mark of +11.5 last season, and good enough for 66-67 wins.

Next, Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-spurs-are-going-to-be-really-good-like-golden-state-warriors-good/) used a similar model based on real-plus minus projections for next season to predict a power rating of +8.9, good enough for 60 wins. By comparison, the Warriors' predicted power rating is +9.0.

Another thing to consider is that last year's Warriors are considered by advanced statistics to be a historically great NBA team. Their point differential ranks among the best in league history, and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight pegged them as the 3rd greatest team of all-time (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-best-nba-teams-of-all-time-according-to-elo/). Because of regression to the mean, it's unlikely that they'll be able to repeat this performance next season and will likely fall back down to earth.

What's noteworthy about all this is that these are the very same models that are projecting that next year's Spurs will be just as good as this year's Warriors, a team so great it had to be an aberration. That is insane.

Now, many posters on this board have far more modest expectations for the Spurs, predicting a win total in the mid to high-50's and a 2 or 3 seed in the West. They point out that a combination of chemistry issues, injuries, age, and rest will prevent the Spurs from reaching 60 wins and challenging for the #1 overall seed.

But as these statistical models show, I think many of us are underestimating just how much of a regular season powerhouse next season's Spurs can be. I feel a lot of people's predictions for next year are skewed based on the Spurs' performance this year. But remember, we had several fluke late 4th qtr / OT losses this year, which is something unlikely to be repeated next year. Despite that, this year's team still managed to win 55 games and was a Pelicans loss away from being the #2 seed in the West. If next year's team is going to be significantly better than this year's, we should very easily surpass that win total.

Assuming reasonable health, I believe next year's Spurs team can be an absolute juggernaut.

[Brian Windhorst]

http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/020915_pop1000.jpg

[Mr Bones]

Sounds pretty reasonable... The Spurs won 55 in an injury heavy year with no LaMarcus Aldridge and no David West.

[Brian Windhorst]

Last year's Warriors also had one of the most unprecedented runs of good health I think the league has ever witnessed. Their five most played players, from 26mpg to 33mpg, missed a collective 15 games.

[jhfenton]

I'll be very surprised and disappointed if, barring a long injury to one of the Big Four (Kawhi, Aldridge, Duncan, and Green), the Spurs don't win north of 60 games.

[Obstructed_View]

I don't really see how that's a particularly bold prediction. If they have the same injury problems, they're probably five games better than last year's team.

[All Mighty Janitor]

The Clippers And Rockets could be better now. Those teams and a healthy OKC could challenge the spurs seeding. Just something to think about.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Health will be key, but I think it's pretty clear that seeding is important to post season success. I'd predict the Spurs will win 1 or 2 games more than the 2 seed.

[SpursFan86]

Those statistical models don't count for the chemistry aspect of things. While I think Aldridge is a good fit on paper and I don't have doubts that he'll end up fitting well eventually, it's not like things are just going to happen over night. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they got off to a slow start and had some growing pains.

I mean I'm not saying that 60+ wins is impossible or even unlikely...but I'm still predicting 56-58 wins personally. You have to keep in mind that the Western conference is shaping up to be one of the toughest conferences in history as well.

[DPG21920]

The issue isn't the Spurs, it's health and how good everyone else is. The West was great last year, but no KD, Spurs hobbled all year and so many other injuries.

[Seventyniner]

If the Spurs stay healthy, they are going to wreck the league. 65 wins.

[Mikeanaro]

It doesnt surprise me at all, last season Spurs lost 10 games in the most stupid ways ever and against scrub teams MIL NETS DET etc..

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Last year's Warriors also had one of the most unprecedented runs of good health I think the league has ever witnessed. Their five most played players, from 26mpg to 33mpg, missed a collective 15 games.
And the majority of those were due to rest, tbh.

[Horry Hipcheck]

They may be good enough on paper, and could easily win at least 60, but there are two major factors in whether or not that happens: Pop, and the Western Conference.

Pop op doesn't care about the number of games won, and he is notorious for not caring about seeding - though if anything was ever going to change his mind, it might have been the 2015 Final Day of the Season Disaster. The Western Conference is also perhaps the strongest its ever been. The Spurs got stronger, Golden State is still a titan, OKC should see a return to form, Houston and LA at the very least remained as competitive as they were last year, Memohis remains strong, and Portland's collapse moves them from the playoff first-round-and-out table and makes room for Dallas, Phoenix, and New Orleans.

Winning 60+ games means gunning for a top 3 seed in this Western Conference. Golden State, Houston, and SA could all finish Top 3 - barring injuries or chemistry woes - with more than 60 wins. Los Angeles could get close, too.

[Leetonidas]

Spurs will break the franchise record for wins next season imo. I see 65-17

[z0sa]

:lol advanced stats (like usual) aren't really necessary for this type of observation/prediction, tbh.

[SPURt]

What are the odds Golden State gets through a full year with no significant injuries? that's with Bogut and Curry on the roster.

[All Mighty Janitor]

^they rest bogut A LOT so it wouldn't surprise me if he plays the majority of their games injury free and Curry seems like he'll be good on injuries. they may get a few here and there but they were dominate so even with a few injuries( not to curry or green though) they should be fine; they will still be a top 3 seed and probably 1st if the spurs don't get it.

The way i see it, if Kawhi plays all season(minus maybe some games for rest) they will clear 60 games easy and only cavs and warriors will challenge their seeding.

[Gladney to see you]

I think it will be interesting how well the Spurs and the Pelicans start...I think it will be very important come end of the year.

[Gladney to see you]

I think it will be interesting how well the Spurs and the Pelicans start (team continuity)...I think it will be very important come end of the year.

[Baseline21]

Just think Spurs wake up and roll out of bed winning 50 games. This Spurs team will win 62 to 65 games. As long as Kawhi,LA and Duncan don't miss significant games. Book it! Spurs nation should be the most excited since drafting Mr. Robinson and Duncan. This might be are best team ever put together. I know a lot of guys are passed their prime but let's face it. Duncan is still playing amazing. Manu and Tony's games fell down but with LA here, Kawhi looking real big in cp3 camp, David Wes motivated, d.green got paid. Kawhi will be a monster out there. Every year he gets better and he knows he got paid like a franchise player so he knows he has to play like them every game. I think right out of the gates I think Spurs turn it up a notch because Duncan and Manu last year, maybe. Plus I would hate to see a pissed off David west, because with the sacrifice he took to play for this team. This team is going to be fresh with the subs. It's going to be ridiculous when Duncan comes out and west comes in. Green comes out,Manu in. Ray comes in for Parker, Green comes in for kawhi, Diaw comes in for LA. Each player is going to be well rested. LA,Kawhi and green are the only ones that will play a lot of mins but I think pop might hold back on LA for being new to team and the wear Portland was doing to him. Pop extends careers. Plus LA plays hurt all the time. This roster is frickin Badass, top to bottom. Pop just needs to adjust his lineups, so he knows when to play small ,big and mix. Pop will be the mad scientist with lineups before playoffs start. I'm ready for the season. I just pray Kawhi and tony stay healthy in world games. Spurs set for history in the making.

[Uriel]

I don't really see how that's a particularly bold prediction. If they have the same injury problems, they're probably five games better than last year's team.
As reading through this thread will show you, a lot of people on this board have predicted that the Spurs will finish with a win total in the mid to high-50's and finish as the 2 or 3 seed in the West.

My point was that I believe many people are seriously underestimating how much of a regular season juggernaut this team can be, and that they can easily finish with a win total as high as last season's Warriors.

[Uriel]

Those statistical models don't count for the chemistry aspect of things. While I think Aldridge is a good fit on paper and I don't have doubts that he'll end up fitting well eventually, it's not like things are just going to happen over night. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they got off to a slow start and had some growing pains.

I mean I'm not saying that 60+ wins is impossible or even unlikely...but I'm still predicting 56-58 wins personally. You have to keep in mind that the Western conference is shaping up to be one of the toughest conferences in history as well.
You obviously didn't read the OP.


Now, many posters on this board have far more modest expectations for the Spurs, predicting a win total in the mid to high-50's and a 2 or 3 seed in the West. They point out that a combination of chemistry issues, injuries, age, and rest will prevent the Spurs from reaching 60 wins and challenging for the #1 overall seed.

But as these statistical models show, I think many of us are underestimating just how much of a regular season powerhouse next season's Spurs can be. I feel a lot of people's predictions for next year are skewed based on the Spurs' performance this year. But remember, we had several fluke late 4th qtr / OT losses this year, which is something unlikely to be repeated next year. Despite that, this year's team still managed to win 55 games and was a Pelicans loss away from being the #2 seed in the West. If next year's team is going to be significantly better than this year's, we should very easily surpass that win total.

[Uriel]

If the Spurs stay healthy, they are going to wreck the league. 65 wins.
:tu :tu :tu :tu :tu



Winning 60+ games means gunning for a top 3 seed in this Western Conference. Golden State, Houston, and SA could all finish Top 3 - barring injuries or chemistry woes - with more than 60 wins. Los Angeles could get close, too.
Good point, but I think you might be overestimating how good the Western Conference is. Last year's #2 seed, Houston, won only 56 games. The Clippers, the #3 seed, won 55.

While it's true the West has gotten better, I don't think our competition has improved to the point where there will be multiple 60-win teams in the conference. If the Spurs finish with 60+ wins, that should easily clinch the 2 seed at least. Depending on how hard the Warriors fall back down to earth, it could very well earn us #1 overall.

[tatteredprince]

70 wins is possible if Coach Pop pushes them, runs them to the ground

but who needs 70 wins, the record books?

Coach Pop is wiser than the gods of valhalla.................

Go Spurrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrs go!

[Chinook]

Advanced stats don't predict anything. Stats are NOT predictive. Rather, a model using advanced stats as input projected the Spurs at that range. There's a critical difference there, and it affects the strength of the argument.

[aal04]

We arent doing chit for the first 15 games or so.

We have to figure out team chemistry. LBJ at Miami first half season sucked. LBJ at cleveland first half season sucked.

We will be making late runs, but i dont see a complete dominating season

[Mouth is Bleeding]

It's a weird grudge but as soon as talk began of Warriors being this all time great team based on their numbers/blowing out so many opponents I can't help being a little bitter about Pop "sabotaging" these emphatic victories sometimes.

Especially notable in our last championship season where even before half time or definitely in the 3rd period our leads were well on their way to absurd and Pop either starts some experiment messing with the most effective lineups (or put someone like Ayres in early) or just rest everyone.

It's kind of who cares but advanced stats and analytics is what will determine legacies in the future and I don't want Spurs to be in any way short changed. I think the 13-14 team could have done very similar to the Warriors if not better.

Of course advanced stats-guys will hopefully look a little deeper and see the impact of the best Spurs lineups and more judge us that way.

[100%duncan]

Most posters saying high 50's? Where? All Ive read so far are atleast 60

[Uriel]

Advanced stats don't predict anything. Stats are NOT predictive. Rather, a model using advanced stats as input projected the Spurs at that range. There's a critical difference there, and it affects the strength of the argument.
How so? Please elaborate.

[Uriel]

Most posters saying high 50's? Where? All Ive read so far are atleast 60
That was the general consensus in the threads that came out immediately following the Aldridge signing.

There are a few posters in this thread saying that too.

[Chinook]

How so? Please elaborate.

Models contain bias, just like advanced stats do but to a higher degree. The modelers have to decide which constants to add to the equations. So stats aren't predicting the Spurs to do anything; rather it's someone's opinion that the numbers the players put up last season can carry over to this season, and those numbers when weighed they way that someone thinks is best lead them to assert the Spurs will win 60-plus games.

That doesn't make the model wrong. But it's not "just math" like plus-minus is. It's very open to criticism and dismissal, because it's subjective just like whatever Chuck says.

[buttsR4rebounding]

But as these statistical models show, I think many of us are underestimating just how much of a regular season powerhouse next season's Spurs can be. I feel a lot of people's predictions for next year are skewed based on the Spurs' performance this year. But remember, we had several fluke late 4th qtr / OT losses this year, which is something unlikely to be repeated next year. Despite that, this year's team still managed to win 55 games and was a Pelicans loss away from being the #2 seed in the West. If next year's team is going to be significantly better than this year's, we should very easily surpass that win total.

Assuming reasonable health, I believe next year's Spurs team can be an absolute juggernaut.

I don't know how anyone could come to a different conclusion. Even if you don't adjust squat from last year's squad this year's group is better. You've added a new #1 option. Anyone who thinks Kawhi will be the #1 option on offense is delusional. He'll get his for sure, but LA is a proven #1. Also, I think deep down we all think KL would make a great #2 offensive option on a championship caliber team. Jury is definitely out as to whether a team with him as the #1 option is Championship caliber. Doesn't matter any more. I think the base is 60 wins. Depending on how some of the new role players pan out will go a long way towards how many games above that they will go.

[Gladney to see you]

I don't think the Spurs are built to win that many games at this point. Too many guys needing rest. The goal is to win just enough to be in top 4. We just missed last year, but should get it this year.

[Uriel]

Models contain bias, just like advanced stats do but to a higher degree. The modelers have to decide which constants to add to the equations. So stats aren't predicting the Spurs to do anything; rather it's someone's opinion that the numbers the players put up last season can carry over to this season, and those numbers when weighed they way that someone thinks is best lead them to assert the Spurs will win 60-plus games.

That doesn't make the model wrong. But it's not "just math" like plus-minus is. It's very open to criticism and dismissal, because it's subjective just like whatever Chuck says.
Ah, I see. Thanks for clarifying.

Of course you're right that models have an element of subjectivity to them. Not all statistical models are made equal, and some are better than others in terms of predictive success.

But what's noteworthy about the two models I linked to is that they were based on real plus-minus, one of the more robust statistics in basketball with a high degree of predictive power. Neil Paine and Kevin Pelton are also two of the foremost names in the industry.

I'm not saying their models are perfect. Far from it. But there's good reason to believe in the reliability of their projections.

Also: I think you're putting too much stock in my thread title. I only phrased it that way to make it read like an attention-grabbing headline. Obviously, such things, by their nature, are not attentive to the nuances of semantics. :lol

[Horry Hipcheck]

:tu :tu :tu :tu :tu


Good point, but I think you might be overestimating how good the Western Conference is. Last year's #2 seed, Houston, won only 56 games. The Clippers, the #3 seed, won 55.


While it's true the West has gotten better, I don't think our competition has improved to the point where there will be multiple 60-win teams in the conference. If the Spurs finish with 60+ wins, that should easily clinch the 2 seed at least. Depending on how hard the Warriors fall back down to earth, it could very well earn us #1 overall.

It's not that I think they all will win 60 games, just that considering how the West playoff race turned out last year it's not unreasonable to think the Rockets and Clips could make a solid run at 60. The Rockets certainly didn't get any worse, and they finished the last month of the regular season without Beverley.

[Vito Corleone]

It doesn't matter what G State does, the Spurs are better and will torch them just like last season.

The fact is, this Spurs team is better than every other team in the league, by a large margin, and we match up much better to G state than everyone else. This team is damn near perfect. So much so they could make the playoffs even if Tim Tony and Manu didn't play a single minute during the season. With those 3, this team is far beyond any other team out there.

[Kawhitstorm]

Folks might want to check on how bad Austin Rivers was before he was traded to the Clippers.

[Spurtacular]

I think either the Warriors or the Spurs will come out hot and go something like 20-3. Whoever does will win 60 plus and roll to a one seed. The other team will not want wear themselves out trying to win 63 games only to settle for a two seed. JMO