Hey Manny

[Hook Dem]

What do you think about the last sentence in this? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
859 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

UPDATE

UPPER JET AND TAIL END OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRANS PECOS TO DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS MOVE INTO VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND HAVE LEFT 5 AND 10 POPS THERE, WHILE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE GHOST 5 AND 10 POPS
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, WIND, AND RELATED
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS. LOOKING AHEAD, 18Z
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT APPROACHES THE TEXAS
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Hook Dem]

What do you think about the last sentence in this? AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
859 PM CDT WED SEP 14 2005

UPDATE

UPPER JET AND TAIL END OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRANS PECOS TO DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW SOME OF THIS MOVE INTO VAL VERDE
COUNTY AND HAVE LEFT 5 AND 10 POPS THERE, WHILE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SUFFICIENT TO REMOVE GHOST 5 AND 10 POPS
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE, DEWPOINT, WIND, AND RELATED
GRIDS FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS. LOOKING AHEAD, 18Z
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT APPROACHES THE TEXAS
COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Vashner]

Boo.. the model that predicted Katrina was the UK model btw.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats quite funny! I was just talking to Mandy that I had noticed that in several consistent runs.

It makes sense to me, and the GFS model has been calling for it quite consistently over the past few runs. There is a ridge over us now, but that is going to slide to the east as a front drives into the centeral US next week. The system would then slide up the western edge of that ridge right into Texas. I'll try to post some of the pictures from the GFS model runs to show you what its showing.

[Ginofan]

*cue the twighlight zone theme*

[Vashner]

I am going bay fishing Monday in Port A so.. better not storm...

[MannyIsGod]

Boo.. the model that predicted Katrina was the UK model btw.
A lot of them predicted Katrina, not just the UKMET. Models aren't great at predicting the development of systems for several reasons, but the GFS has shown an 'apptitude' of doing it. The development of many storms - most recently Ophelia - has been prognosticated by the GFS. But it has also forcast storms that never develop.

[MannyIsGod]

I am going bay fishing Monday in Port A so.. better not storm...
You should be fine on Monday.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, just an FYI for people if anyone cares...

I'm seriously considering double majoring with one of my degree plans being Meteorology while also doing PolSci, or switchign majors all together.

[MannyIsGod]

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/8d/mrf_pres_8d.gif

GFS surface plot for next Thursday. That big green blob is your storm.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/8d/mrf_500_8d.gif

Thats the mid level plot for the same day. That light area off the coast is the storm, with the purple area over Georgia/South Carolina is the high pressure moving the storm in this direction.

Something to keep an eye on, without a doubt.

[MannyIsGod]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models/mrf/mrf_sfc_f192.gif

Thats the 8 day surface plot for the Medium Range Forcast Model. That big blob is the possible storm.

[TheWriter]

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/models/mrf/mrf_sfc_f192.gif

Thats the 8 day surface plot for the Medium Range Forcast Model. That big blob is the possible storm.

Freakin' New Orleans better watch out.

[MannyIsGod]

It is very far out in time, either way. And models aren't Miss Cleo by a long shot. I think there is some credence to this because a large number of the models are showing it, but with it being so far in the future as far as weather goes there really is no telling.

It is something to keep an eye out for though.

[MannyIsGod]

Freakin' New Orleans better watch out.
No, the storm would move into South Texas from east to west.

[travis2]

BTW, just an FYI for people if anyone cares...

I'm seriously considering double majoring with one of my degree plans being Meteorology while also doing PolSci, or switchign majors all together.

How's your math background/aptitude?

[MannyIsGod]

How's your math background/aptitude? The only college level courses I've ever taken are College Algebra and Statistics. I didn't have trouble with either, and I don't think I'd have much of a problem with higher level math courses.

In other words, I don't have the background but I feel my apitude at the least adequeate.

[travis2]

Just checking. Be ready to hit the books hard. Atmospheric physics is no joke.

[SpursWoman]

I think that would be an awesome choice for you ... you seem to really enjoy & have a knack for it. :)

[MannyIsGod]

Just checking. Be ready to hit the books hard. Atmospheric physics is no joke.
You're not kidding.

It is just a consideration, though. I've been putting a lot of thought into it, but we'll see.

[MannyIsGod]

The GFS is showing the storm still, but it now has it going into Mexico.

The place it actually makes landfall is pretty inaccurate at the moment, but add another 2 model runs to the series that are predicting this storm to form.

http://weather.unisys.com/mrf/7d/mrf_pres_7d.gif

[travis2]

I think it would be a "cool" major to pick up "hot" chicks with, "weather" or not you actually like the stuff. lol


Seriously, good luck. Meteorology seems like it would be a really interesting major.

[CosmicCowboy]

I think it would be a "cool" major to pick up "hot" chicks with, "weather" or not you actually like the stuff. lol

:lmao

yeah...I can just see all those hot chicks on the weather channel running back to Dr. Mannys office so he can tell them what to say before they go on the air...

[travis2]

:lmao

yeah...I can just see all those hot chicks on the weather channel running back to Dr. Mannys office so he can tell them what to say before they go on the air...

Q: Why were all hurricanes originally named after women?

A: Well, they do blow hard... :lol

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

[MannyIsGod]

The models are now calling for the high pressure ridge to sit right over Texas through the week. So unless the trough digs in stronger than anticpated, we will not get hit by the storm. The GFS still shows it developing but just heading straight into Mexico.

But there are plenty of chances of storms right now, so I don't think South Texas is out of the woods by any means.

[Manu20]

This is a meteorologist from accuweather.

The Tropics run amuck. The system near Puerto Rico should be in the Gulf by Monday with development likely. It's a tough call on the path as I suspect models are too far south, so Texas has to watch out. There is no threat to the central Gulf Coast that I can see. The African wave moves west-northwestward and should stay under the trof in the Atlantic through Monday, placing it near Puerto Rico. If that does not float your boat, another home-brew "rabbit out of the hat" situation could set up. By hook or by crook, this should be a storm in the southwest Atlantic again late next week.

[MannyIsGod]

The conditions are always favorable this time of year, which is why you see such a large development of storms right now. We are at the peak moment of storm development in the season.

The models have been consisten bringing that system in south, but we'll see.

[Manu20]

The latest GFS run keeps it way south in the Bay of Campeche by 9/21 next wednesday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_108s.gif

[Manu20]

area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville Tx
845 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 17 2005

.discussion...atmosphere Over Deep South Texas Is As Dry As It Has
Been All Month...with A Precipitable Water Value Of 1.59 Inches On
The Kbro 00:00 Utc 18 September Sounding. This Dry Atmosphere Will
Persist And...when Combined With High Pressure At The Surface And In
The Mid-levels Of The Atmosphere Over The Rio Grande Valley...will
Result In Very Warm And Dry Conditions For The Bro Cwfa Through The
Next Several Days. The National Hurricane Center Continues To Watch
A Surface Area Of Low Pressure In The Vicinity Of The Turks And
Caicos Islands. This Disturbance Has The Potential To Become A More
Organized Tropical System Tonight Or Sunday. 18:00 Utc 17 September
Run Of The Gfs Suggests This...bringing An Organized Tropical System
Across The Gulf Of Mexico Towards The East-central Mexican Coast...
Then Pulling The System Northwest Into Tamaulipas As 500 Mb High
Pressure Shifts East From Texas To Mississippi. This Scenario Could
Result In Significant Precipitation Late Next Week And Weekend For
Deep South Texas. However...will Let Overnight Shift Examine Newest
GFS Run And Other Models To Make Precipitation Determination For
That Time Period. Otherwise...will Issue Updated Zone Forecast For
Tonight To Remove Evening Wording. No Other Forecast Changes Planned
At This Time.
&&

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_180s.gif

[MannyIsGod]

You beat me too it. I was going to post a thread about what will be Rita earlier.

The GFS has progged this thing for a good time frame now, and there is development happening under that disturbance. I would be really suprised if by Tuesday we're not looking at Rita coming into the Easter Gulf.

What is interesting is that the North American Model (NAM) has it spinning up into a 'cane before it even gets to the Florida straits.

[Sense]

^ I hate it when you post like this. It reminds me of your previous Katrina posts...

[boutons]

MIG, your Rita is what NHC calls EIGHTEEN?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/025617.shtml?prob

[Ginofan]

TD 18 would be Rita when it becomes a tropical storm

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_228l.gif

18 should be Phillipe by tomorrow. It's going to probably grow into a major hurricane but hopefully won't botehr anyoen but the fish.

[MannyIsGod]

Sorry, 17 should be Phillipe.

[MannyIsGod]

Phillipe has been named and TD18 has been officially formed as well.

[MannyIsGod]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_model.gif

[Hook Dem]

Texas better keep a weary eye on this one!

[Manu20]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/tropicalwx/images/resize/AL1805W5.JPG

[MannyIsGod]

Last run of the GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_slp_156l.gif

The only good news is that the trough that is picking it up seems to accelerate it quite a bit and send it off to the north, so it wouldn't be a slow mover.

[MannyIsGod]

That storm should officially be Rita by the 4pm advisory. The satellite presentation looks good.

[Manu20]

area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville Tx
330 Pm Cdt Sun Sep 18 2005

.discussion...500mb Ridge Across Texas And The Northern Gulf Of
Mexico Coastline Will Move Slightly Westward Over The Next Couple Of
Days. This Will Provide Subsidence Across South Texas Producing Dry
And Very Warm To Hot Conditions Across The Cwa Monday And Tuesday.
Will Keep Slight Chance Of Showers And Thunderstorms Tuesday For
Moisture Increasing Slightly Across The Western Gulf Of Mexico. Mav
Temperature Guidance Appears Slightly Too Warm For Highs Monday And
Slightly Too Cool For Highs Tuesday So Will Adjust Mos Max Temp
Numbers Slightly.

All Eyes Turn To The Gulf Of Mexico Wednesday As Tropical Storm
Rita Enters The Southeast Gulf Tuesday Night As A Hurricane As
Forecasted By The National Hurricane Center. The Track Brings Rita
Across The South Central Gulf Of Mexico Thursday Into The Western
Gulf Of Mexico Friday. Subsidence To Increase Across The Western
Gulf Wednesday Into Thursday And With That Moisture Should Be
Limited Across South Tx Especially Thursday. With Increasing
Subsidence...temperatures Will Remain Above Normal Through At Least
Friday. The Rest Of The Forecast Will Be Highly Dependent On The
Future Track And Intensification Of Tropical Storm Rita. Per
Coordination Call With Wfo Kcrp...will Go Ahead And Increase Pops
And Winds Based On A Possible Landfall Along The Lower Tx Coast
Saturday Morning.
&&

.marine...tropical Storm Rita Is Positioned Near The Turks And
Caicos Islands And Is Expected To Develop Further As It Moves West
Toward The Florida Strait And The Gulf Of Mexico. The Official
National Hurricane Center Forecast Track Brings The System Into The
Western Gulf Later In The Week. In The Short Term...a High Pressure
Ridge Over The Northwest Gulf Of Mexico Will Move West Over The Next
Couple Of Days. This Means That Winds Over The Coastal Waters Of
Deep South Texas Will Gradually Shift From Southeast To East During
The Next Couple Of Days...possibly Even Backing Around To The
Northeast By Wednesday. Wind Speeds During That Time Are Not
Expected To Be Excessive...less Than 15 Knots Most Of The Time. Seas
In The Outer Coastal Water Sections Will Remain At Three Feet Or So
Until At Least Until Midweek.
&&

[samikeyp]

I'm seriously considering double majoring with one of my degree plans being Meteorology while also doing PolSci, or switchign majors all together.

You should man. You seem to be a natural.

[MannyIsGod]

It is official. They gave it the name Rita.

Oh, and right behind Philippe we have a strong wave that will probably be TD19. There's a reason this is the peak of the season.

[boutons]

Tourists Evacuate Fla. Keys Before Storm

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: September 18, 2005

Filed at 6:22 p.m. ET

MIAMI (AP) -- Thousands of tourists jammed the highways Sunday after they were told to evacuate the lower Florida Keys because Tropical Storm Rita developed over the Bahamas and moved toward the vulnerable, low-lying island chain.

A hurricane watch was posted for the entire Florida Keys, which means hurricane conditions of winds of at least 74 mph are possible by late Monday. .....

[CharlieMac]

Good tracking info from you all. I think it's going to bust Brownsville right in the mouth.

[MannyIsGod]

http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif

[MannyIsGod]

145
URNT12 KNHC 182347
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:24:20Z
B. 22 deg 36 min N
072 deg 49 min W
C. 850 mb 1458 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 071 deg 067 kt
G. 042 deg 024 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 19 C/ 499 m
J. 18 C/ 1518 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF304 0218A CYCLONE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 67 KT N QUAD 23:16:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
EYE FEATURE FORMING ON NORTH SIDE, ABOUT 40% COMPLETE

Thats the last message from the hurricane hunter aircraft in the storm right now. We may have Hurricane Rita on our hands before soon. The Keys should probably evacuate before too long.