FiveThirtyEight's indiviual player projections..

[HarlemHeat37]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#tim-duncan

Pretty cool, they also compare players to their most similar counterparts(and the strength of the similarities are graded, as well)..

For the Spurs(by Wins Above Replacement):

#1: Kawhi Leonard- 10.7, MVP Candidate
#2: Danny Green- 6.6, Borderline All-Star
#3: Tim Duncan- 5.1, Borderline All-Star
#4- Lamarcus Aldridge- 4.5, Good Starter
#5- David West- 2.8, Key Role Player
#6- Patty Mills- 2.2, Key Role Player
#7- Manu Ginobili- 2.1, Key Role Player
#8- Boris Diaw- 1.4, Rotation Player
#9- Kyle Anderson- 0.6, Rotation Player
#10- Tony Parker- 0.3, Offensive Specialist
#11- Matt Bonner- 0.2, Way Past His Prime
#12- Ray McCallum- -0.1, Project
#13- Jimmer Fredette- -0.3, Scrub
#14- Rasual Butler- -0.5, Way Past His Prime

[SAGirl]

I hope we don't have Danny as our second best player. I love him, but he's not an overall playmaker, or versatile scorer and is inconsistent as all shooters are bound to be from game to game. I'd prefer if LMA emerged as our 2nd or 3rd best player, if you have Timmy as the 2nd best. Then after those 3 I would have Danny. For our sakes, I hope LMA is better than just a good starter. I also don't see Danny as a borderline all-star. But ok, interesting.

[HarlemHeat37]

Ex-Spurs:

Splitter- 3.4, Key Role Player
Beli- 0.2, Offensive Specialist
Cojo- 2, Rotation Player

[HarlemHeat37]

I hope we don't have Danny as our second best player. I love him, but he's not an overall playmaker, or versatile scorer and is inconsistent as all shooters are bound to be from game to game. I'd prefer if LMA emerged as our 2nd or 3rd best player, if you have Timmy as the 2nd best. Then after those 3 I would have Danny. For our sakes, I hope LMA is better than just a good starter. I also don't see Danny as a borderline all-star. But ok, interesting.

It's not necessarily accurate in ranking the "best" players on the team, but rather importance of role..

[K...]

Danny green is absolutely a statistical all star, the problem is his skill limits.. He's probably the third or fourth best spur depending on Duncan, if he could only dribble the ball he'd be a max player., I really wish be had at least gotten other teams offers to see what his true value is.

[Hoops Czar]

"This is just cliches and unquantifiable narrative shit, tbh, this isn't sports talk radio.. " That graph has Leonard peaking at age 24 :lol. Damn, according to those projections, at age 31(when he should be edging out of his prime), he'll be no better than his rookie season.

[SAGirl]

Danny green is absolutely a statistical all star, the problem is his skill limits.. He's probably the third or fourth best spur depending on Duncan, if he could only dribble the ball he'd be a max player., I really wish be had at least gotten other teams offers to see what his true value is.
After seeing him last night you really are aware of his limitations and why he's not on the echelon of players that are either alls-stars or borderline. He makes a lot of klutz plays when there are no guys th o create looks for him. His jumpshots off the Dr never look like they will go in, he obviously is not going to make plays off the dribble very often and although he's improved, he's more at the level of tolerable than all-star. He's a roleplayer. He could be a good 3 and D anywhere but you saw for example how much more versatile and aggressive Marco is offensively while still being a relatively unathletic guy. I think Danny's contract is fair TBH. There could have been other teams willing to give him more, but then you enter the realm of Tristan Thompson. Is he really worth it? Tristan is another roleplayer who is elite at PnRdefense/offensive rebounding. He think he's a max guy based on that despite the other glaring holes in his game. Danny is elite at a couple things, but very limited in others. At some point you wonder yea, he could have possibly gotten more, but it would have been an overpay.

[DarrinS]

TP's graph :lmao

[SuperCam]

TP's graph :lmao

http://blogs.cresa.com/madison/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/KCPS10-Detail-Property.gif

[K...]

TP's graph :lmao

It's a step decline but not much worse than Sam Cassel I got no problem with parker retiring on his past accomplishment. Anything past 5 for any of the big three is gravy.

[Buddy Mignon]

"This is just cliches and unquantifiable narrative shit, tbh, this isn't sports talk radio.. " That graph has Leonard peaking at age 24 :lol. Damn, according to those projections, at age 31(when he should be edging out of his prime), he'll be no better than his rookie season.


He's in his prime and I said it as early as last season. Don't expect him to get much better. Maybe he will out-duel Barnes this year.

[dabom]

He's in his prime and I said it as early as last season. Don't expect him to get much better. Maybe he will out-duel Barnes this year.

Maybe porker can out-duel some rookie or a cardboard cutout. Maybe. :lmao

[baseline bum]

Damn 538 doesn't like the Aldridge signing much.

[All Mighty Janitor]

"This is just cliches and unquantifiable narrative shit, tbh, this isn't sports talk radio.. " That graph has Leonard peaking at age 24 :lol. Damn, according to those projections, at age 31(when he should be edging out of his prime), he'll be no better than his rookie season.

You need to look at the gray bar to determine the a range player will be in. The listed number is a conservative estimate; just like with win total projections, it is generally going to be higher than what is predicted (except for scrubs). For example, looking at the WAR charts for them in years before, Green, LMA, Mills, and most likely Duncan are not going to get worse than the previous year. So take that in mind when looking at the predictions.

[Spurtacular]

Maybe it's too soon to be worried; but Aldridge looked like sh** in the first preseason game.

[apalisoc_9]

Interesting thing about Aldridge is his lack of ability to pass the ball in the post ups..He missed so many players last night forcing the issue.

[All Mighty Janitor]

Interesting thing about Aldridge is his lack of ability to pass the ball in the post ups..He missed so many players last night forcing the issue.

Hopefully that is not the norm. Whether he didn't see or just was not making the pass, for what ever reason, has yet to be determined so I won't pass judgement yet.

[spurraider21]

duncans got a really steep dropoff projected from last season to now

[YGWHI]

It's not necessarily accurate in ranking the "best" players on the team, but rather importance of role..

Agree. Also, people tend to confuse the most impactful player on the team with the best offensive player or leading scorer. Good ranking :tu

[Tuddy]

Kawhi will never be in MVP discussion cause his raw numbers won't be there even though he will be a top 3 player in the league imo

[Chinook]

I hope we don't have Danny as our second best player. I love him, but he's not an overall playmaker, or versatile scorer and is inconsistent as all shooters are bound to be from game to game. I'd prefer if LMA emerged as our 2nd or 3rd best player, if you have Timmy as the 2nd best. Then after those 3 I would have Danny. For our sakes, I hope LMA is better than just a good starter. I also don't see Danny as a borderline all-star. But ok, interesting.

As Bill Russell said, the game has always been, and will always be, about buckets. Green happens to be elite at defensive PPP and TS%. He's both efficient and prolific as a shooter. He's likely to own every relevant Spurs shooting record when it's all said and done, and he'll probably be pretty high up on the NBA ladder as well. He's also about as dynamic of a defensive player as guards come (would be the best steals guy on most teams and is a legit rim-protector as a wing; he's also perhaps the best iso defender on the team now that Splitter is in Atlanta). By most advanced metrics, he's a top-five player at his position and probably top 30 in the league. He was one of the best fantasy players in the league last season.

I know it's easy to look at what he doesn't do well and assume he's overrated. But if he scores well and is elite at stopping the other team from scoring, then the other stuff really doesn't matter all that much. He's the wing version of Tyson Chandler, except that Tyson gets almost too much credit for what he does at this point. Does he need the right guys around him to play to his potential? Yes. But that's true of every player except maybe Lebron. You let Danny do what he does, and it's almost impossible to find someone to do it better.

[apalisoc_9]

offensive specialist porker?

more like cuisine fine dining tasting wanker

[Raven]

I see what you did there:toast

[rasuo214]

"This is just cliches and unquantifiable narrative shit, tbh, this isn't sports talk radio.. " That graph has Leonard peaking at age 24 :lol. Damn, according to those projections, at age 31(when he should be edging out of his prime), he'll be no better than his rookie season.

Check the graphs for guys like Curry, Harden, Durant, Westbrook, Butler etc. All of them are on a downward trend. Only youngish star that wasn't was Davis (at least from the ones I checked).

[Kawhitstorm]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#tim-duncan

Pretty cool, they also compare players to their most similar counterparts(and the strength of the similarities are graded, as well)..

For the Spurs(by Wins Above Replacement):

#1: Kawhi Leonard- 10.7, MVP Candidate
#2: Danny Green- 6.6, Borderline All-Star
#3: Tim Duncan- 5.1, Borderline All-Star
#4- Lamarcus Aldridge- 4.5, Good Starter
#5- David West- 2.8, Key Role Player
#6- Patty Mills- 2.2, Key Role Player
#7- Manu Ginobili- 2.1, Key Role Player
#8- Boris Diaw- 1.4, Rotation Player
#9- Kyle Anderson- 0.6, Rotation Player
#10- Tony Parker- 0.3, Offensive Specialist
#11- Matt Bonner- 0.2, Way Past His Prime
#12- Ray McCallum- -0.1, Project
#13- Jimmer Fredette- -0.3, Scrub
#14- Rasual Butler- -0.5, Way Past His Prime

So according to this Spurs point guards aren't that valuable? I would rank Patty as #5 & give him about a 3.5 rating considering he'll be VERY valuable w/ the decline of Porker. D-West is ranked too high considering he is redundant w/ LMA/Diaw already on the roster which also probably decreased LMA's rating.

[cjw]

Does he need the right guys around him to play to his potential? Yes. But that's true of every player except maybe Lebron. You let Danny do what he does, and it's almost impossible to find someone to do it better.

Lebron would KILL to have Green playing next to him A guy who will hit the open shot like half the Miami roster but also shut down his opponent? Hey, maybe we should trade Green and Diaw for Shumpert while we're at it!

[Wilt Chamberlain]

As Bill Russell said, the game has always been, and will always be, about buckets. Green happens to be elite at defensive PPP and TS%. He's both efficient and prolific as a shooter. He's likely to own every relevant Spurs shooting record when it's all said and done, and he'll probably be pretty high up on the NBA ladder as well. He's also about as dynamic of a defensive player as guards come (would be the best steals guy on most teams and is a legit rim-protector as a wing; he's also perhaps the best iso defender on the team now that Splitter is in Atlanta). By most advanced metrics, he's a top-five player at his position and probably top 30 in the league. He was one of the best fantasy players in the league last season.I know it's easy to look at what he doesn't do well and assume he's overrated. But if he scores well and is elite at stopping the other team from scoring, then the other stuff really doesn't matter all that much. He's the wing version of Tyson Chandler, except that Tyson gets almost too much credit for what he does at this point. Does he need the right guys around him to play to his potential? Yes. But that's true of every player except maybe Lebron. You let Danny do what he does, and it's almost impossible to find someone to do it better.What a bunch of wasted breath with the sole justification of a Walton throwaway line? Then you assume that he meets the criteria and talk as if its the case anyway.TYson Chandler is limited offensively all the way around beyond setting picks and Danny doesn't do on either end of a pnr set. If you want to make a comparison how about list the things that actually compare? With Chandler, you start off right off the bat saying he's a poor choice because he is overrated. It's like you don't even know how you do a comparison.C is a good comparison because like SG there is a lack of talent at the position at least.

[DarrinS]

Go to that site and enter Kobe. Another "offensive specialist". :lmao

[Chinook]

What a bunch of wasted breath with the sole justification of a Walton throwaway line?

Well, since you phrased it as a question, I'll answer. No. It was a Russell line from one of the Uncle Drew commercials. The point is that scoring and defense are the only things that really matter in any sport. All of the other stats are pieces of the puzzle, but they don't directly cause wins or losses. You win by outscoring your opponent, no exceptions. So Green scoring well and preventing others from doing so is what makes him so valuable. I'm sorry that you have such a superficial understanding of basketball that you miss that fact.

Tyson is overrated because he's old. His Suns contract will be a bad deal very soon. He wasn't overrated in his prime. Anyway, Chandler was an incredibly efficient offensive player when he was allowed to play his role, being a PnR roll-man and rebounder. If he had to post guys up, he would have gotten exposed. But he didn't have to post guys up, so it's cool. Obviously, he was elite at protecting the rim and again rebounding, which is why he defensive metrics were so good.

Like Chandler was, Green is elite at the most important things. That's why his numbers are so good. Missing that because you're too focused on his flaws doesn't change the fact that he makes the team better by being on it.

And don't get me wrong; I realize that you're probably a troll account. Or you may be taking a dig at Russell due to his hand your handle's rivalry. Doesn't matter much to me.

[SAGirl]

Concerning Danny my comment was on the valuation of his contract. I think it's fair bc Danny is of most value in a good team with a strong system and stars that can create open looks for him. For sure he's elite at what he does well, but teams where he would shine have stars that need to get paid as well, so his range was fair to me. Teams that could overpay him are very young teams or fringe playoff aspiring teams where maybe what he does is not enough to catapult them to the playoffs and his weaknesses are exposed. So his $ is relative to that team's situation.

[apalisoc_9]

So according to this Spurs point guards aren't that valuable? I would rank Patty as #5 & give him about a 3.5 rating considering he'll be VERY valuable w/ the decline of Porker. D-West is ranked too high considering he is redundant w/ LMA/Diaw already on the roster which also probably decreased LMA's rating.

I don't think this takes into account the system they play for..

[T_L_P]

Danny green is absolutely a statistical all star, the problem is his skill limits.. He's probably the third or fourth best spur depending on Duncan, if he could only dribble the ball he'd be a max player., I really wish be had at least gotten other teams offers to see what his true value is.

Green tends to get underrated, but he's not better than Duncan - not by a long shot (yes, even a 40 year old Duncan).

He's the clear-cut 4th best Spur which is still awesome considering he was almost out of the league a few years ago.

[YGWHI]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#tim-duncan

Pretty cool, they also compare players to their most similar counterparts(and the strength of the similarities are graded, as well)..

For the Spurs(by Wins Above Replacement):

#1: Kawhi Leonard- 10.7, MVP Candidate
#2: Danny Green- 6.6, Borderline All-Star
#3: Tim Duncan- 5.1, Borderline All-Star
#4- Lamarcus Aldridge- 4.5, Good Starter
#5- David West- 2.8, Key Role Player
#6- Patty Mills- 2.2, Key Role Player
#7- Manu Ginobili- 2.1, Key Role Player
#8- Boris Diaw- 1.4, Rotation Player
#9- Kyle Anderson- 0.6, Rotation Player
#10- Tony Parker- 0.3, Offensive Specialist
#11- Matt Bonner- 0.2, Way Past His Prime
#12- Ray McCallum- -0.1, Project
#13- Jimmer Fredette- -0.3, Scrub
#14- Rasual Butler- -0.5, Way Past His Prime

Except for Kawhi's, the rest of the projections are a lot worse than last year...

#1: Kawhi Leonard- 10.5, MVP Candidate

#2: Danny Green-4.9, Good Starter
#2: Pau Gasol-4.9, Good Starter

#4: Lamarcus Aldridge- 3.0, Averaged Starter

#5: Kyle Anderson-2.4, Up-And-Comer

#6- Patty Mills- 2.2, Rotation Player

#7- Manu Ginobili- 2.0, Key Role Player

#8- Jonathan Simmons-0.4, Scrub

#9- Tony Parker- 0.2, Scrub

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/tony-parker/

[BackHome]

No way is LMA is an average starter that's just straight up BS!!

[buttsR4rebounding]

Kyle Anderson with the biggest increase. I believe he will be an effective player this year.

[SASdynasty!]

Kyle Anderson 4 spots ahead of MVParker. Seems legit.

[SAGirl]

Kyle Anderson 4 spots ahead of MVParker. Seems legit.
Except scoring (and that was really not his role) he impacted the game in a lot of categories that Tony did not and he's just 22 years old. But you are so sour over Tony that you can't be happy someone else in the team is projected to be getting better not worse.

[kaji157]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/#tim-duncan

Pretty cool, they also compare players to their most similar counterparts(and the strength of the similarities are graded, as well)..

For the Spurs(by Wins Above Replacement):

#1: Kawhi Leonard- 10.7, MVP Candidate
#2: Danny Green- 6.6, Borderline All-Star
#3: Tim Duncan- 5.1, Borderline All-Star
#4- Lamarcus Aldridge- 4.5, Good Starter
#5- David West- 2.8, Key Role Player
#6- Patty Mills- 2.2, Key Role Player
#7- Manu Ginobili- 2.1, Key Role Player
#8- Boris Diaw- 1.4, Rotation Player
#9- Kyle Anderson- 0.6, Rotation Player
#10- Tony Parker- 0.3, Offensive Specialist
#11- Matt Bonner- 0.2, Way Past His Prime
#12- Ray McCallum- -0.1, Project
#13- Jimmer Fredette- -0.3, Scrub
#14- Rasual Butler- -0.5, Way Past His Prime

Hi great page i like it a lot and is pretty accurate with the description and comparison.
Just a question, can you post the projections for next season for the whole roster as you did here? Because i tried to look it up in the page and i couldn´t get to the general roster projection, i just can go one by one by each player.

Tnx in advance