Will Duncan Become the NBA's All Time Career Leader in Games Won?

[BillMc]

The list as of October 17, 2015:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1228 wins
Robert Parish - 1121
Tim Duncan - 1102
Karl Malone - 1050


Since Timmy is all about winning, it could be argued this is the second most important stat of his career (behind championships). He should pass Parish this season? Does Timmy stick around long enough to pass "The Captain" and, if so, does that affect his legacy in the public at large? Surely, it is as important as Kobe's late career meaningless points?

[BillMc]

Thanks to Galileo for helping me clarify the numbers.

[SpursFan86]

Going off those numbers, it seems pretty unlikely. He's 131 wins behind Kareem. Even if you're including playoffs, he'd have to win 55 regular season games and 10 playoff games (so WCF appearance at the least) in each of the next 2 seasons just to get to 1227 wins.

[TrainOfThought5]

I think thats very doable.

[8FOR!3]

It depends, if he retires this year obviously you're probably looking at #2. If he retires after next year there's a chance but it's unlikely. You'd probably have to get 3 years out of him for it to realistically happen with these numbers which I don't see happening. However, I think he's physically capable of doing it. Depends on how long he feels like he want to play.

[BillMc]

Going off those numbers, it seems pretty unlikely. He's 131 wins behind Kareem. Even if you're including playoffs, he'd have to win 55 regular season games and 10 playoff games (so WCF appearance at the least) in each of the next 2 seasons just to get to 1227 wins.

What also is a factor is what is a "win" for a player? Does he have to play in the game or just be on the squad? I would assume the former, but trying to get that answer. It's relevant, because of those 55 or so wins we want per season, Timmy is bound to rest 4 or 5 of them.

[BillMc]

It depends, if he retires this year obviously you're probably looking at #2. If he retires after next year there's a chance but it's unlikely. You'd probably have to get 3 years out of him for it to realistically happen with these numbers which I don't see happening. However, I think he's physically capable of doing it. Depends on how long he feels like he want to play.

You're right. And factoring in rest, he almost certainly has to play 3 seasons to get there.

[Canyonero]

What also is a factor is what is a "win" for a player? Does he have to play in the game or just be on the squad? I would assume the former, but trying to get that answer. It's relevant, because of those 55 or so wins we want per season, Timmy is bound to rest 4 or 5 of them.

Should apply to a player who plays (sorry for being redundant). Same criteria when people rank Tim-Manu-Tony's record as an all-time trio.

[dbestpro]

He could, but he won't because he is not driven by stats.

[sananspursfan21]

Does he actually have to play in the games for this stat to count? Because he could (if he cared so much, doubt he really does) just ride the pine and play as needed until he's 43. Not sure if this statistic is loophole friendly.

[sananspursfan21]

He could, but he won't because he is not driven by stats.

Dis

[Harry Callahan]

Kareem may be out of reach - I think he played till he was 42 years old. I think Tim will play this year and next as long as no big injuries occur.

[Old School 44]

The list as of October 17, 2015:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1228 wins
Robert Parish - 1121
Tim Duncan - 1097
Karl Malone - 1050


Since Timmy is all about winning, it could be argued this is the second most important stat of his career (behind championships). He should pass Parish this season? Does Timmy stick around long enough to pass "The Captain" and, if so, does that affect his legacy in the public at large? Surely, it is as important as Kobe's late career meaningless points?Doable, but unlikely. Duncan's legacy is solidified already, even if he quit today. I actually think TD plays at least 2 years.

I wonder if Duncan doesn't wants to retire the same year as KG and Kobe, more so KG? Can you imagine if they all retired the same year, along with Dirk, Paul Pierce and Manu? That would be one hell of a hall of fame class.

[SuperCam]

No, but there's no shame in that. Kareem is the best big man to ever play :worthy:

[Dex]

The list as of October 17, 2015:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1228 wins
Robert Parish - 1121
Tim Duncan - 1097
Karl Malone - 1050


Since Timmy is all about winning, it could be argued this is the second most important stat of his career (behind championships). He should pass Parish this season? Does Timmy stick around long enough to pass "The Captain" and, if so, does that affect his legacy in the public at large? Surely, it is as important as Kobe's late career meaningless points?

Would take three more seasons of 43+ wins. Or, two more seasons of 50+ wins as well as ~15 wins in the playoffs.

Possible? Yes. Probable...not so much. As much as I would love to see Timmy stick around for 3 more seasons, he probably hangs them up after this year. :(

[DarrinS]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/mp_career_p.html

[BillMc]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/mp_career_p.html

Thanks. :flag:It's great that Tim leads in career minutes played in the playoffs foo :toast bur, of course. those are different stats.

[Arcadian]

If he plays 2 more seasons, he'd need 65 and 66 win seasons to do it. Unlikely.

If he plays a third season, then he'd need only 44 wins per season. That's a lock.

[Hoops Czar]

The list as of October 17, 2015:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1228 wins
Robert Parish - 1121
Tim Duncan - 1097
Karl Malone - 1050


Since Timmy is all about winning, it could be argued this is the second most important stat of his career (behind championships). He should pass Parish this season? Does Timmy stick around long enough to pass "The Captain" and, if so, does that affect his legacy in the public at large? Surely, it is as important as Kobe's late career meaningless points?

Nah, "Regular season games are meaningless." Therefore, the stats that emphasize regular season wins are pretty trivial and "meaningless". It just means he's been around for a very long time. Stats like this are much more important.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_career_p.html

[BillMc]

I wonder if Duncan doesn't wants to retire the same year as KG and Kobe, more so KG? Can you imagine if they all retired the same year, along with Dirk, Paul Pierce and Manu? That would be one hell of a hall of fame class.

Poor Timmy would have to spend the HOF award evening socializing with KG, pretending they don't hate each other. Reason enough to outlast Garnett by at least a year.:lol

[weeks]

Kareem may be out of reach - I think he played till he was 42 years old. I think Tim will play this year and next as long as no big injuries occur.

i think even that is some super hopeful shit

[Sean Cagney]

Doable, but unlikely. Duncan's legacy is solidified already, even if he quit today. I actually think TD plays at least 2 years.

I wonder if Duncan doesn't wants to retire the same year as KG and Kobe, more so KG? Can you imagine if they all retired the same year, along with Dirk, Paul Pierce and Manu? That would be one hell of a hall of fame class.
How many can get in at a time? It's hard to imagine any one of them not being first ballot HOF.

[letmk]

How many can get in at a time? It's hard to imagine any one of them not being first ballot HOF.

I don't think Pierce deserves 1st ballot HOF. Even Manu does not, if not considering International play.

[Harry Callahan]

i think even that is some super hopeful shit

Not really. Manu is playing this year isn't he even with a lower skill level. Many people expected him to wrap it up last year.

One year beyond this one is possible for TD IF he has a good year health wise. IF Duncan feels like he is contributing at a good level again - like he said - "till the wheels fall off".

Based on the pre-season so far, Tim can still be the best player on the floor some nights, which is amazing in and of itself.

Besides, I'm greedy. Dwight Howard can't even get on the floor at 30-31 years old with a bad back and is making up injuries for his failures in performance.

Dwight Howard is on an accelerated David Robinson bad back bad knee regimen. David was an MVP level player at the same age. Dwight is not as skilled as David was - that's for sure. TD is a couple of plateaus higher than Dwight.

[SpursFan86]

I don't think Pierce deserves 1st ballot HOF. Even Manu does not, if not considering International play.

Pierce is absolutely a 1st ballot HoFer. He's top 20 all-time in scoring, 10x all-star, and a FMVP.

As for Manu, it's the "basketball hall of fame", not "NBA hall of fame", so there's no reason why Manu's international achievements shouldn't or wouldn't be considered. He's unquestionably a 1st ballot HoFer.

[BillMc]

As for Manu, it's the "basketball hall of fame", not "NBA hall of fame", so there's no reason why Manu's international achievements shouldn't or wouldn't be considered. He's unquestionably a 1st ballot HoFer.

This.

[Galileo]

Games won per season including playoffs:

Jabbar: 61.4
Duncan: 61.222

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=&match=career&year_min=&year_max=&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=&is_playoffs=&round_id=&game_num_type=&game_num_min=&game_num_max=&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=W&is_starter=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts


With LMA and young Kawhi and including playoffs, Duncan can match Jabbar in 2 years. Would certainly do it in three.

[Sean Cagney]

Pierce is absolutely a 1st ballot HoFer. He's top 20 all-time in scoring, 10x all-star, and a FMVP.

As for Manu, it's the "basketball hall of fame", not "NBA hall of fame", so there's no reason why Manu's international achievements shouldn't or wouldn't be considered. He's unquestionably a 1st ballot HoFer.
I agree Pierce is a first ballot HOF player, he needs to go back and look at what he has done for his career before speaking on it. He should get in right away. Manu will get in as well, no doubt.

[BillMc]

Games won per season including playoffs:

Jabbar: 61.4
Duncan: 61.222

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=&match=career&year_min=&year_max=&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=&is_playoffs=&round_id=&game_num_type=&game_num_min=&game_num_max=&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=W&is_starter=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts


With LMA and young Kawhi and including playoffs, Duncan can match Jabbar in 2 years. Would certainly do it in three.
:toast

[Old School 44]

How many can get in at a time? It's hard to imagine any one of them not being first ballot HOF. I don't really think there is a limit. I just know an NBA player needs to be retired a full 5 years before they are eligible. I doubt if they all retire at the same time, but some of them will. It would be cool to see Manu and Tim get inducted in the same year, but I actually think Tim plays a year longer.

[313]

No.

[Galileo]

The list as of October 17, 2015:

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 1228 wins
Robert Parish - 1121
Tim Duncan - 1097
Karl Malone - 1050


Since Timmy is all about winning, it could be argued this is the second most important stat of his career (behind championships). He should pass Parish this season? Does Timmy stick around long enough to pass "The Captain" and, if so, does that affect his legacy in the public at large? Surely, it is as important as Kobe's late career meaningless points?

Tim has 1102 wins and is only 2 normal seasons away from Jabbar. No serious injury = Tim breaks record.

[Galileo]

Tim Duncan wins by season:

Rk Season Count
1 2002-03 76
2 2006-07 74
3 2013-14 72
4 2005-06 68
5 2004-05 66
6 2000-01 65
7 2012-13 65
8 2007-08 63
9 2001-02 62
10 2010-11 62
11 1997-98 60
12 2003-04 57
13 2014-15 56
14 2011-12 55
15 1998-99 52
16 2009-10 51
17 2008-09 50
18 1999-00 48

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=duncati01&match=season&year_min=&year_max=2015&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=&is_playoffs=&round_id=&game_num_type=&game_num_min=&game_num_max=&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=W&is_starter=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_G=&pos_is_GF=&pos_is_F=&pos_is_FG=&pos_is_FC=&pos_is_C=&pos_is_CF=&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts

Tim needs 126 more wins to tie. He can do it in 2 average seasons if the Spurs go deep into the playoffs.

[BillMc]

Tim has 1102 wins and is only 2 normal seasons away from Jabbar. No serious injury = Tim breaks record.


Tim Duncan wins by season:

Rk Season Count
1 2002-03 76
2 2006-07 74
3 2013-14 72
4 2005-06 68
5 2004-05 66
6 2000-01 65
7 2012-13 65
8 2007-08 63
9 2001-02 62
10 2010-11 62
11 1997-98 60
12 2003-04 57
13 2014-15 56
14 2011-12 55
15 1998-99 52
16 2009-10 51
17 2008-09 50
18 1999-00 48

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi?request=1&player_id=duncati01&match=season&year_min=&year_max=2015&age_min=0&age_max=99&team_id=&opp_id=&is_playoffs=&round_id=&game_num_type=&game_num_min=&game_num_max=&game_month=&game_location=&game_result=W&is_starter=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos_is_G=&pos_is_GF=&pos_is_F=&pos_is_FG=&pos_is_FC=&pos_is_C=&pos_is_CF=&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=pts

Tim needs 126 more wins to tie. He can do it in 2 average seasons if the Spurs go deep into the playoffs.

Cheers. :boboUpdating my original post.

[BillMc]

Thanks to Galileo for helping me clarify the numbers.

[Galileo]

Thanks to Galileo for helping me clarify the numbers.

:danceclub

[Galileo]

Here are some notes on Tim's wins:

Rk Season Count
1 2002-03 76 (ring)
2 2006-07 74 (ring)
3 2013-14 72 (ring)
4 2005-06 68 (lost 2nd round)
5 2004-05 66 (ring, Tim injury plagued)
6 2000-01 65 (lost WCF)
7 2012-13 65 (lost finals, Tim some injuries)
8 2007-08 63 (lost WCF)
9 2001-02 62 (lost 2nd round)
10 2010-11 62 (best record West but lost 1st round)
11 1997-98 60 (lost 2nd round)
12 2003-04 57 (lost 2nd round, Tim injury plagued)
13 2014-15 56 (lost 1st round)
14 2011-12 55 (strike, lost WCF)
15 1998-99 52 (ring, strike season)
16 2009-10 51 (bad year, but won 1st round)
17 2008-09 50 (bad year, lost first round)
18 1999-00 48 (Tim injured, missed playoffs)

So looking at this chart, barring no strikes, a combination of an average year (62 or 63 wins) and a good year (66 or 67 wins) would break Jabbar's record in 2 years.

[BillMc]

Here are some notes on Tim's wins:

Rk Season Count
1 2002-03 76 (ring)
2 2006-07 74 (ring)
3 2013-14 72 (ring)
4 2005-06 68 (lost 2nd round)
5 2004-05 66 (ring, Tim injury plagued)
6 2000-01 65 (lost WCF)
7 2012-13 65 (lost finals, Tim some injuries)
8 2007-08 63 (lost WCF)
9 2001-02 62 (lost 2nd round)
10 2010-11 62 (best record West but lost 1st round)
11 1997-98 60 (lost 2nd round)
12 2003-04 57 (lost 2nd round, Tim injury plagued)
13 2014-15 56 (lost 1st round)
14 2011-12 55 (strike, lost WCF)
15 1998-99 52 (ring, strike season)
16 2009-10 51 (bad year, but won 1st round)
17 2008-09 50 (bad year, lost first round)
18 1999-00 48 (Tim injured, missed playoffs)

So looking at this chart, barring no strikes, a combination of an average year (62 or 63 wins) and a good year (66 or 67 wins) would break Jabbar's record in 2 years.

All good stuff. :toast Let's hope TD keeps playing, is healthy, and there is no lockout (though I think that would be after '17)

[spurraider21]

i doubt duncan plays long enough

[aal04]

Hes our best player. I expect him to retire after this year when we win the ring. If he doesnt, he stays another year when we win in next year