How far should Hosner have been out by?

[MultiTroll]

Met 1st baseman with ball, feet planted and ready to make throw:
http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/356worldofisaachosmer.jpg

[MultiTroll]

and where Hosmer is in relation to plate as ball crosses plate:
http://sports.cbsimg.net/images/visual/whatshot/343jeffthrowduda.jpg

[MultiTroll]

"Duda was not credited with an error on his throw" :lmao

[Pelicans78]

"Duda was not credited with an error on his throw" :lmao

Only reason is you count assume a double play when it comes to scoring a play. Otherwise it would normally be ruled an error.

[MultiTroll]

Only reason is you count assume a double play when it comes to scoring a play. Otherwise it would normally be ruled an error.
Retard MLB claimed years ago they formulated a post game review of all scoring.
It hasn't happened. Not only last night, but all season long.

If common sense is not allowed to prevail, what can one say.
That was an error by a mile. :lol

[Pelicans78]

Retard MLB claimed years ago they formulated a post game review of all scoring.
It hasn't happened. Not only last night, but all season long.

If common sense is not allowed to prevail, what can one say.
That was an error by a mile. :lol

Either way, that error would be a moot point if Hosmer didn't make an error in the 6th allowing the Mets to score.

[MultiTroll]

Either way, that error would be a moot point if Hosmer didn't make an error in the 6th allowing the Mets to score.
To error is human.
I error all the time.
I recently did a large error.

It's just the way the media sucks off Hosmer as if it was some great play.
It wasn't.
All this nonsense about how he *forced the action*. :lol
If Duda would have had to make some split second / dig it out of the dirt / turn and hurl play, I would agree. However.....

Farks sake if you look at the stills, Duda is locked and loaded, feet set and ball out of glove in his throwing hand. All he has to do is lob it home and Hosmer is out by 15 feet. Actually a low intelligence strategy play by Hosmer.

Maybe it's Texas Hold Em. How often does someone do the retarded 10% vs 90% call and yet caller gets rewarded with the one out suck out on the river.

[FromWayDowntown]

Hosmer did force the action; had he stayed at third base, Duda doesn't have to make a throw and there's no chance for a bad throw or a dropped ball or anything of that sort.

If Hosmer stays put, as you would prefer, he's at third base with two outs and has only limited ways to score the tying run with Gordon facing Familia. Yeah, Gordon yanked Familia in Game 1, but Familia struck him out in Game 3 and forced a double play ball in Game 4. If Hosmer doesn't run there, KC stands a good chance to lose the game with the tying run on 3rd base (much like Game 7 of the 2014 WS).

So, you can dispute the intelligence of the play, but I think there's a strong defense for going there if the opportunity presented itself; better to be thrown out at home trying to tie the game than to be stranded on 3rd when an aggressive play could have extended the game. That's particularly true when you're up 3-1 in the series and have 2 games left at home.

It was an aggressive play to try to get home there and the downside for KC of a failure was actually not terribly bad.

[baseline bum]

Fabbs is really butthurt about this

How Kansas City Royals knew Mets' Lucas Duda would 'screw it up' (http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2015/11/how_kansas_city_royals_knew_mets_lucas_duda_would. html)

NEW YORK — When it came down to it, Eric Hosmer's mad dash home was fueled by the knowledge that Lucas Duda is not a good first baseman, David Wright's arm is weak, and the Royals were playing with house money.

That's at least according to Kansas City first base coach Rusty Kuntz, who watched it all go down as the Royals captured a 7-2 win over the Mets in Game 5 for their first World Series title since 1985.

PLUS: Twitter reaction from fans, celebrities and Mike Piazza to World Series loss

With one out in the ninth inning, the slow Eric Hosmer on third base and the Mets protecting a 2-1 lead, Salvador Perez hit a soft grounder at third baseman David Wright, who looked backed Hosmer and threw to first base.

Then Hosmer broke for home.

RELATED: Duda has no excuse for bad throw

Duda received Wright's throw, got the out at first base and then tried firing it to catcher Travis d'Arnaud at home. But his throw was wide left, Hosmer scored, and a rocking Citi Field fell silent before watching the Royals erupt for another five runs to seal it in the 12th inning.

Hosmer's rush wasn't just a gut reaction. It wasn't just intuition.

It came from scouting, Kuntz said.

The Royals were aware of two things: Duda is slow and his arm isn't the best, and Wright — because of his back injury — was forced to adjust his throwing motion from over the top to side arm. The change made his throws weaker and gave them a sideways arc, making them take longer to get across the diamond.

"Our scouts told us that coming in: "Any time you can maybe ... " and they remember that stuff," Kuntz said. "And you go, 'Oh my god, he's really going to do it.' And then, bless Lucas' heart, he was wide left — not wide right — but wide left. That was pretty cool though."

Kuntz said they wouldn't have just tried a daring move like that on anybody, but Duda "is a good bat. One of those kinds of deals." Translation: K.C. wasn't concerned about his defensive ability.

Still, Kuntz said, he would have understood the criticism if Duda somehow had made a great throw and nabbed Hosmer at home. And, still, Kuntz said, the Royals would have been fine with the decision. Kuntz said it was a good baseball play.

"In that situation, yes," he said. "Because we hadn't done anything offensively. Nothing."

But it would have probably forced a Game 6, he was reminded.

"But that's ok because that's our safety net," Kuntz said. "But you know what, Game 6, if that play comes up again, we're playing Game 7. We're going to do it until they screw it up or until they rush it. I don't mean to say Duda screwed it up, but it's all about pressure at this level. "

[FromWayDowntown]

The scouting aspect of that play is similar to the accounts of why Mike Jirschele didn't send Gordon in Game 7 last year -- because KC's scouting report was that Brandon Crawford is among the most accurate throwers at the shortstop position, with a better than average arm, and almost certainly would have made a good throw to easily gun down Gordon.

Scouting the defense does make a difference.

[JMarkJohns]

In game 4 Duda botched a catch on a pickoff attempt and the ball rolled about six feet away. He wasn't immediately aware he didn't have the ball. I thought for certain the Royals would send the runner from 3rd to force Duda to make a strong throw in a play at the plate. They didn't. I openly questioned why.

1. Average 1B defensively
2. Iffy arm
3. Non-routine throw
4. High pressure situation
5. Sped-up situation with reactionary throw to get fast runner

Turns out they were just saving it for when it mattered.

When it happened yesterday my friend turned and we're all like "you said that yesterday!"

Yep.

It's all about forcing defenses outside routine. Duda never makes that play with that pressure. So force him to prove he can. Smart baserunninv.

Even if a good throw, no guarantee the catcher makes the play.

[Fabbs]

In game 4 Duda botched a catch on a pickoff attempt and the ball rolled about six feet away. He wasn't immediately aware he didn't have the ball. I thought for certain the Royals would send the runner from 3rd to force Duda to make a strong throw in a play at the plate. They didn't. I openly questioned why.

1. Average 1B defensively
2. Iffy arm
Why is Duda even out there on defense in the 9th inning with the Mets leading? :downspin:

[Fabbs]

The scouting aspect of that play is similar to the accounts of why Mike Jirschele didn't send Gordon in Game 7 last year -- because KC's scouting report was that Brandon Crawford is among the most accurate throwers at the shortstop position, with a better than average arm, and almost certainly would have made a good throw to easily gun down Gordon.

Scouting the defense does make a difference.
With a 2 -0 lead going into the 9th in a World Series game you must have to close to 3-2......

Collins elects to try to milk the 9th out of Harvey.
Duda, scouted as a suck ass defensive 1b is nonetheless out there on defense.

Any other gifts the Mets could have given the Royals?

[FromWayDowntown]

Any other gifts the Mets could have given the Royals?

I'm honestly not sure what your point is with any of this.

[Fabbs]

I'm honestly not sure what your point is with any of this.
Op was very clear.

You turned it to how sucky Dudas defense is and how KC knew this in advance.
So, i ask in a league with all kinds of players competing to get the positions with million dollar salaries, how does a below rec league level defensive 1b get left in a 9th inning defense only position?

[FromWayDowntown]

Op was very clear.

You turned it to how sucky Dudas defense is and how KC knew this in advance.
So, i ask in a league with all kinds of players competing to get the positions with million dollar salaries, how does a below rec league level defensive 1b get left in a 9th inning defense only position?

You don't think Hosmer should have run? Got it.

He might not have run had the Mets had a better first baseman. They didn't.

So what?

[Fabbs]

Would like to know what went thru the Mets / Collins mind leaving suck ass defensive 1b in allowing Hosmer to make play he should have been out by 15 feet on.

Anyone is free to marvel at what a *great* play it was.
I say it's rec league stuff.

[FromWayDowntown]

Would like to know what went thru the Mets / Collins mind leaving suck ass defensive 1b in allowing Hosmer to make play he should have been out by 15 feet on.

Okay then, who should have been playing first instead of Duda at that juncture?


Anyone is free to marvel at what a *great* play it was.
I say it's rec league stuff.

And yet he and the people who made that decision get paid millions to play baseball (and to win championships, as it turns out), while you and I debate it on a message board.

Here's another question, though: if Hosmer had been thrown out, are you saying that the Royals would have scored him some other way? Or do you just prefer having a runner on 3rd with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th and only limited ways to score over taking what is admittedly a big chance to try to score the tying run when the opportunity exists?

[Fabbs]

Okay then, who should have been playing first instead of Duda at that juncture?
You, me, could the grounds staff have been allowed to suit up?
There has to be at least 1, probably 14 benchies would could play defensive 1st better if Dudas suckage is so well known per the Royals scouts.

[Fabbs]

Here's another question, though: if Hosmer had been thrown out, are you saying that the Royals would have scored him some other way? Or do you just prefer having a runner on 3rd with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th and only limited ways to score over taking what is admittedly a big chance to try to score the tying run when the opportunity exists?
I agree with what you posted that in totality (3 -1 games, 2-1 score, two outs and batter coming to plate having so - so history against Familia) that the scamper Hosmer did is mitigated.

I would still favor leaving the bat in on-deckers hands.

[FromWayDowntown]

I would still favor leaving the bat in on-deckers hands.

Cool. So, you'd be in the middle of Game 6 tonight.

[Fabbs]

^^^ assumes facts not in evidence.

[FromWayDowntown]

^^^ assumptions are based on empirical data.

In 2014, with virtually the same situation in Game 7 -- trailing by 1 with a runner on third and two outs in the 9th inning -- Kansas City's expected win percentage was 16%.

When Hosmer scored to tie Game 5, KC's expected win percentage jumped to 40%.

KC almost certainly wasn't winning Game 5 unless Hosmer scored.

[MultiTroll]

^^^ assumptions are based on empirical data.

In 2014, with virtually the same situation in Game 7 -- trailing by 1 with a runner on third and two outs in the 9th inning -- Kansas City's expected win percentage was 16%.

When Hosmer scored to tie Game 5, KC's expected win percentage jumped to 40%.

KC almost certainly wasn't winning Game 5 unless Hosmer scored.
Judge "Mr. FromWayDowntown I've already sustained the objection."

Fabbs: You honor, if we may could we just let him continue?
1st off, what is the sample size you presented again?

And if i am reading your post correctly about a game last year:

When Hosmer scored to tie Game 5, KC's expected win percentage jumped to 40%
It means KCs chances of losing were at 60%?

[FromWayDowntown]

Judge "Mr. FromWayDowntown I've already sustained the objection."

You sustain your own objections? Without even giving the other side a chance to respond?


Fabbs: You honor, if we may could we just let him continue?
1st off, what is the sample size you presented again?

The sample size is the history of baseball, as I understand it.

The numbers aren't mine -- they come from the play-by-play at baseballreference.com, which includes a play-by-play assessment of the likelihood that the ultimate winner will prevail based on situations and the plays that are made in those situations.

I suspect that those numbers are based on assessing how frequently teams in those situations have ultimately won games, which I would guess is based on pretty much every major league game ever played.


And if i am reading your post correctly about a game last year:

It means KCs chances of losing were at 60%?

My point is that last year, with the precise situation that would have existed if Hosmer had stayed put, KC's chances of winning -- based on the foregoing information -- were negligible; almost 1 out of 6 times, the team in that spot loses the game. By comparison, if Hosmer runs AND scores, KC's chances of winning the game jumped from 1 in 6 to more like 2 in 5. You can say it's not a lot, and that's fine. I think most people would rather have a 40% chance of winning (even if that means a 60% chance of losing) than a 15% chance of winning (which means you have an 85% chance of losing).

But if you want to keep harping on Hosmer making a bad play when his team just celebrated a title that it won, in part, on his choice in the 9th inning of Game 5, you go right ahead.

[MultiTroll]

You sustain your own objections? Without even giving the other side a chance to respond?
:lol Don't go Chump on me and start making stuff up.

Ok so give me this years empirical, right at the moment Hosmer is still on 3rd.
What is the math if he stays, the easy throw is made to 1st for two outs. Duda never gets the chance to go rec league.
Next batter up with two outs. What is the math?

[FromWayDowntown]

Ok so give me this years empirical, right at the moment Hosmer is still on 3rd.
What is the math if he stays, the easy throw is made to 1st for two outs. Duda never gets the chance to go rec league.
Next batter up with two outs. What is the math?

I don't know that, other than to point to the identical circumstance last year. Since the numbers seem to span all of baseball history, I feel pretty confident in the belief that a team down 1 on the road with 2 outs in the 9th inning and a runner at third, has roughly a 15% chance of winning the game.

[MultiTroll]

I don't know that, other than to point to the identical circumstance last year. Since the numbers seem to span all of baseball history, I feel pretty confident in the belief that a team down 1 on the road with 2 outs in the 9th inning and a runner at third, has roughly a 15% chance of winning the game.
Ya but then it's gotta be factored in that particular batter vs that pitcher (if enough sample size), home team (Mets) vs. roadies, etc.

Hmmn i would think the math is available. Will try to find.

Related, the math on Collins letting the starter open the 9th vs Mets top reliever at the time....mistake.
With fatigue no doubt being a factor, he walks what becomes the 2-1 run.
No I'm not talking 20/20 I'm saying go with the closer right then and there. Combined with a defensive 1st baseman. For the love of God why are you *saving* Duda for later at bats. :downspin:

[FromWayDowntown]

Related, the math on Collins letting the starter open the 9th vs Mets top reliever at the time....mistake.
With fatigue no doubt being a factor, he walks what becomes the 2-1 run.
No I'm not talking 20/20 I'm saying go with the closer right then and there. Combined with a defensive 1st baseman. For the love of God why are you *saving* Duda for later at bats. :downspin:

Even if we disagree on the prudence of Hosmer's decision to run, I agree with what you say here.

Collins made a mistake in trusting Harvey in that spot; it wasn't like Harvey was Jack Morris in 1991 or even Chris Carpenter in 2011 against the Phillies (when Larussa let him take the ball in the 9th on the road in Game 5 with a 1-0 lead to complete the game).

And the fact that the Mets had minus defenders in several infield spots really hurt them in the WS. Ironic, in some ways that the thing that kept the Mets alive in 1986 was John McNamara's refusal to insert a better defensive 1B in the 9th inning of Game 6 and the thing that may have killed the Mets in 2015 was Terry Collins' refusal to give up some offense in order to solidify his defense. And its shameful if the Mets built their postseason roster without considering the need to be able to improve defense to hold late leads.

[Pelicans78]

Most National League teams don't carry backup 1B. Actually not most teams carry a backup 1B strictly for defense since its not a premium defensive position compared to the middle infield and outfield. Most DHs in the American League are first basemen, but they DH for a reason. The National League doesn't have a DH so they carry an extra pitcher instead as well as backup outfielders and middle infielders. Duda wouldn't be expected to come out of the game for defensive purposes since teams rarely sub for his position.