Rita and Corpus Christi

[Vashner]

Hum.. even worse than the bowl getting hit again. Imagine how expensive gas would be if the refineries in Corpus are wiped out by a Cat 4 storm?

[Trainwreck2100]

Why is God angry about our dependence on fossil fuels

[MannyIsGod]

The water isn't warm enough to support a Cat 4 storm. While not out of the realm of possiblity, the chances of a Rita being a cat 4 storm when it comes ashore with the influence of a trof and the water tempatures are not very high.

[Vashner]

Did you see that storm it just sucked in? It was on the loop...

http://home.satx.rr.com/krograth/images/rita01.jpg

[Ginofan]

While the Keys are likely to escape with a hard but bearable hit from a strengthening Category 1 or 2 hurricane, the Gulf Coast will not be so lucky. There is nothing in the long-range forecast that I can see that will prevent Rita from intensifying into a Category 3 or stronger hurricane. The entire stretch of coast from 500 miles south of Brownsville, Texas to Mobile, Alabama is at risk--no one can say with any confidence where Rita will hit this far in advance. Texas and Louisiana are at the highest risk. The current model trend is to recurve Rita earlier and earlier, so residents from Corpus Christi to New Orleans need to be particulary concerned.

[TheTruth]

Did you see that storm it just sucked in? It was on the loop...

http://home.satx.rr.com/krograth/images/rita01.jpg
Damn Vashner, your like John Madden writing on the T.V.

[SpursWoman]

Damn Vashner, your like John Madden writing on the T.V.


:lol

[ObiwanGinobili]

Why is God angry about our dependence on fossil fuels


because he really had a thing for the dinasaurs and whatnot and he hates to see the ramins of them and thier enviroment desecrated in that way.

:lol

[Hook Dem]

Well, it doesn't look good http://img344.imageshack.us/img344/291/at2005185day7db.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Ginofan]

It seems the models are shifting to the east a bit.

http://skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL182005mlts.gif

[Shelly]

I know a Rita that lives in Corpus Christi!

[SWC Bonfire]

It seems the models are shifting to the east a bit.



Crap.

[Ginofan]

at 11 Am Edt...1500z...the Center Of Tropical Storm Rita Was Located
Near Latitude 23.0 North... Longitude 75.2 West Or About 195
Miles... 315 Km... Southeast Of Nassau And About 430 Miles
East-southeast Of Key West Florida.

Rita Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 12 Mph... 19 Km/hr...
And This Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 Mph...100 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours...
And Rita Could Become A Category One Hurricane Tonight.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 145 Miles
...230 Km From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 994 Mb...29.35 Inches.

Rita Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 4 To 6
Inches Over The Southeastern And Central Bahamas...with Possible
Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 8 Inches. Storm Totals Of 6 To 10
Inches...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Will Be
Possible In The Florida Keys And Northwestern Cuba...with 3 To 5
Inches Possible Across The Southern Florida Peninsula.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 6 To 9 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...along
With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...are Possible In The
Florida Keys In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Coastal Storm Surge
Flooding Of 3 To 5 Feet Are Possible Along The Extreme Southeastern
Florida Coast...and In The Northwestern Bahamas.

Repeating The 11 Am Edt Position...23.0 N... 75.2 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds... 65 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 994 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 2 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 5 Pm
Edt.

Forecaster Knabb

[boutons]

SA forecast sees some cooler Rita rain next weekend

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/weather

[ObiwanGinobili]

i'm just gonna pray that there are no hurricane force winds in Victoria....my mom's neighbor has this wickedly huge old decrepit tree thats threatnign to fall righ on my mom's roof as it is... it doesn't need any help.

[boutons]

http://images.ucomics.com/comics/wpswi/2005/wpswi050916.gif

[MannyIsGod]

The models are definetly shiftnig to the east. I think Texas has a date with Rita, though. But we'll see.

[Ginofan]

It would suck royally if they are going to continue to open up parts of N.O. only to have another hurricane head that way.

[MannyIsGod]

The 2 best models for the system on Mandy's graphic are still the ones to the east; the GFDL and UKMET. The BAMMs and the LBAR can be thrown out because they are pretty much crap after a system is on the verge of being a hurricane.

Couple that with the fact the NHC does not like shifting tracks back and forth large distances, and thats why you have their track taking it right into Galveston at this time. But if you see those 2 models shift farther east, then you will see their track shift as well.

The reason you are seeing this shift is because the storm shifted to the north a couple of times yesterday, so every time the models ran they ran with a starting positino farther to the north. Because it is so far away, even a 2 deegree shift to the north makes a huge decision over time.

All in all, the next couple of days will be a better indicator of where this thingis going to go. Once it is 3 days out, look at where the forcast is pointing, because that is more than likely where it is going to go.

[MannyIsGod]

It would suck royally if they are going to continue to open up parts of N.O. only to have another hurricane head that way.
I can't see the ridge allowing that. But we shall see.

[MannyIsGod]

Did you see that storm it just sucked in? It was on the loop...

http://home.satx.rr.com/krograth/images/rita01.jpg The storms you are circling are all part of Rita. The center of circulation is farther to the east than you are indicating and part of the circulation is not covered with convection. It didn't swallow anything.

The center is actually closer to the spot where those 3 blobs are meeting.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/Gulf/latest_wv.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

The storm will be a hurricane later by 4pm. Book it.

[samikeyp]

Manny...if the storm stalled right before CC and sat there for a bit could that push it to a Cat 4 before it hit?

[Ishta]

This just sucks..what would be really bad is if this storm made it to Houston

[xrayzebra]

Manny...if the storm stalled right before CC and sat there for a bit could that push it to a Cat 4 before it hit?

And Corpus is way, way overdue fior a storm. Hope they haven't put all
the cots away yet. I think they are going to need them for our vistors from
the Texas coast.

[SWC Bonfire]

Well, I "called" Katrina, so I say this one goes up the Sabine River.

But I would prefer Baffin Bay.

[boutons]

5-day projected winds, animated

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/084708.shtml?hwindloop?

[CosmicCowboy]

UKMET has been especially accurate this year and they currently have it centerpunching Houston/Galveston...but obviously it is still pretty far out...

[CosmicCowboy]

hmmm...looks like I may be changing my weekend plans...we are booked at the L'auberge du Lac Casino in Lake Charles...

[Vashner]

Tell me you didn't fall for those cheese low class Lauberge commercials they have been running non stop? I think it's tacky as hell.

[MannyIsGod]

Manny...if the storm stalled right before CC and sat there for a bit could that push it to a Cat 4 before it hit? No. When a storm sits in a spot for very long it actually becomes weaker. The winds will stir up water from lower depths which is a lower tempature. So, the longer a storm sits in a spot the more chance it has of actually weakening.

That being said, this storm has very little chance of ever stalling. The steering currents are pretty straightforward.

You hate to say never, because you can never be 100 percent sure with these storms. But I woudln't bet money on this thing ever stopping anywhere.

[Hook Dem]

hmmm...looks like I may be changing my weekend plans...we are booked at the L'auberge du Lac Casino in Lake Charles...
:lol Take lots of money! They are tighter than Dan with Bush compliments! :lol

[Solid D]

Did you see that storm it just sucked in? It was on the loop...

http://home.satx.rr.com/krograth/images/rita01.jpg

Cool! Vashner, "The Czar of the weather telestrator"!

:smokin

[MannyIsGod]

NHC be damned, she's a 'cane right now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg

[travis2]

Manny...if the storm stalled right before CC and sat there for a bit could that push it to a Cat 4 before it hit?

What Manny said, mikey. For an excellent example, look up Hurricane Allen in 1980. It was coming in as a Katrina-sized storm...but it suddenly put down anchor off the Texas coast, wound itself down to (I think) a Cat 3, then came onshore in Kenedy County.

[Hook Dem]

No. When a storm sits in a spot for very long it actually becomes weaker. The winds will stir up water from lower depths which is a lower tempature. So, the longer a storm sits in a spot the more chance it has of actually weakening.

That being said, this storm has very little chance of ever stalling. The steering currents are pretty straightforward.

You hate to say never, because you can never be 100 percent sure with these storms. But I woudln't bet money on this thing ever stopping anywhere.
Manny....I will not generally disagree with your position on stalling but I lived out Celia in 1970. It stalled about 60 mile out and "strengthened from 90 MPH to 160 MPH. Then it came ashore and destroyed our city. You can never say exactly what will happen.

[Vashner]

Water temp in the Texas gulf is still around 85 F...

That's not warm enough?

[MannyIsGod]

Water temp in the Texas gulf is still around 85 F...

That's not warm enough?
It is a pretty shallow layer of warm water. You need deeper and actually hoter water to fuel a cat 4 and cat 5 storm.

IE the water Katrina was over when she was a Cat 5 was 90 degrees.

[Hook Dem]

Water temp in the Texas gulf is still around 85 F...

That's not warm enough?
Plenty warm enough!

[samikeyp]

thanks Manny....I knew you would know.

[Ginofan]

Water temp in the Texas gulf is still around 85 F...

That's not warm enough?


Rita in the Gulf
Once Rita emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, continued strengthening is expected, and she will likely attain at least Category 3 status by Wednesday. However, water temperatures over the middle of the Gulf of Mexico are 1 - 2C cooler than those near Key West, thanks to all the cold water stirred up by Katrina. This cooler water should not allow Rita to grow as strong as Katrina (not a very bold statement, considering Katrina was the 4th strongest hurricane on record!) Rita will probably grow to a Category 3, and has a chance at Category 4 status if she passes over the Gulf Stream loop current, an eddy of very warm water south of New Orleans near 26N latitude.

[MannyIsGod]

Manny....I will not generally disagree with your position on stalling but I lived out Celia in 1970. It stalled about 60 mile out and "strengthened from 90 MPH to 160 MPH. Then it came ashore and destroyed our city. You can never say exactly what will happen.
Hook, a weaker storm than a cat3 can intensify because its winds are not strong enough to stir up the water. But if it sits there much longer after intensifying it will weaken due to upwelling. Like I said, never say never though. Stranger things have happend.

Generally, this storm should be a strong cat 3 for the most part in the gulf as it moves west.

One interesting thing Jeff Masters brought up was the pocket of heat that generated the strength of Katrina. It is still there, though somewhat smaller, and if these tracks for Rita keep shifting north, it could pass over that pocket.

If that happens, it could reach Cat 4 status.

I still don't think the track is going to shift north enough for that to happen, but it sure is possible.

[Hook Dem]

Hook, a weaker storm than a cat3 can intensify because its winds are not strong enough to stir up the water. But if it sits there much longer after intensifying it will weaken due to upwelling. Like I said, never say never though. Stranger things have happend.

Generally, this storm should be a strong cat 3 for the most part in the gulf as it moves west.

One interesting thing Jeff Masters brought up was the pocket of heat that generated the strength of Katrina. It is still there, though somewhat smaller, and if these tracks for Rita keep shifting north, it could pass over that pocket.

If that happens, it could reach Cat 4 status.

I still don't think the track is going to shift north enough for that to happen, but it sure is possible.
Agreed Manny!

[easjer]

They aren't too worried about it yet in Houston. This morning's news models have the high pressure front staying in place and pushing it to the south, hitting northern Mexico up to Corpus. They said they'll know better tomorrow when the storm shifts again, and they can see what the high pressure front does (dissolve, move further south, stay in place, move east).

Given the construction on the Katy freeway, they'll want to begin evacs tomorrow if it looks to hit us this week . . . and I was just in NB yesterday . . .

There should be a concern about a storm hitting Houston/Galveston because of all the Katrina refugees and evacuees who have just been stationed here. Houston will stand up all right to a hurricane, but the flooding is a perpetual issue in a concrete jungle built on swampland. . .

But go freaking figure. Our wedding is October 1, and while Rita will hit before then, we're still not going to be out of hurricane season. . . joy. Please hope this goes to the south, and that weather remains okay until after the wedding (I know, I'm awful. But there have been enough problems, just with darling fi's family. They don't need to gloat over bad weather).

[Vashner]

Hey let's go deep sea fishing this week.. only up to 12 foot swells..

I need a good puke cleansing....

[MannyIsGod]

Hey let's go deep sea fishing this week.. only up to 12 foot swells..

I need a good puke cleansing....
:lmao !!

Up untill last week, we had a trip planed for Wednesday. Now, we changed it before this came up, but I'm glad we decided not to go right now.

[Ginofan]

We have an eye.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

[CosmicCowboy]

Think about this thing getting to Category 4 and hitting Houston...I can just see those evacuees in the Astrodome going through the sequel of "Katrina 2"...

[CharlieMac]

My first weekend off was scheduled for next weekend. Nice timing.

I'm still calling Brownsville and a Cat 4.

[Ishta]

Think about this thing getting to Category 4 and hitting Houston...I can just see those evacuees in the Astrodome going through the sequel of "Katrina 2"...

Lord I hope not..I don't know if those people could take another hurricane after all they've been through

[MannyIsGod]

There is very little chance of it being a Cat 4 at landfall anywhere along the coast. It could reach Cat 4 status if it goes over that pocket of hot water, but holding that strength untill landfall is another question entirely. Espeically while under the influence of a trof.

[MannyIsGod]

And any evacuations are still days away. Barring the Keys of course, where people should be on their way out or already out as we speak.

[easjer]

Houston and Galveston have better evacuation plans and we've already gotten most of the Katrina evacuees situated in short term housing (out of the Dome).

Not to say that we don't have severe flooding issues, and some major artery issues (the ways out west and north are under construction and suffer from some severe congestion).

I lived through Tropical Storm Allison, which was awful becaused it just sat over us for days, dumping water. But it was totally surreal, because I don't live near a bayou or low point, and it was totally sunny outside, dry near my apartment, and just five minutes away, completely under water. It was amazing my part of the UH campus didn't wash away, given that we were in the basement at the time. . . at least now we're on the second floor. . . But anyhow, the real issues won't be wind damage, it'll be flooding.

[Kip Fanatic]

My first weekend off was scheduled for next weekend. Nice timing.

I'm still calling Brownsville and a Cat 4.

I hear ya. I was in S. Padre two weeks ago. The water was awesome. I saw some guys with their jet skis and shot myself for not taking mine. I didn't want to hassle with the darn thing, but regretted it once I saw them on theirs. So, I planned to go back this weekend. Oh well. There's always Medina Lake or I can drown in Canyon Lake. J/K

[MannyIsGod]

The 12z run of the GFS still brings the storm ashore south of Galveston. I like that model much more than any of the storm models directing the storm to Louisiana.

[AlamoSpursFan]

That bitch is gonna fuck up opening weekend in the South Zone.

Dammit.

[Shelly]

And any evacuations are still days away. Barring the Keys of course, where people should be on their way out or already out as we speak.

I was just watching TWC and they said mandetory evacuation for the Keys.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, less than 20 hours before it is going to hit. Sounds as though people don't learn.

[SWC Bonfire]

That bitch is gonna fuck up opening weekend in the South Zone.

Dammit.

:lol

I hope you get rained out.

[Ishta]

Yeah, less than 20 hours before it is going to hit. Sounds as though people don't learn.
I really hope they don't wait too long to get out

[SWC Bonfire]

Yeah, less than 20 hours before it is going to hit. Sounds as though people don't learn.

Why don't they learn? From all the accounts I've seen everyone is getting the hell outta there.

Don't tell me you can't outrun a catI/weakII in 20 hours.

[MannyIsGod]

Why don't they learn? From all the accounts I've seen everyone is getting the hell outta there.

Don't tell me you can't outrun a catI/weakII in 20 hours.
Considering a full evac of the Keys takes 72 hours and this thing may be a catagory 3 through there, well, you do the math.

[CosmicCowboy]

Damn...if you think gas is expensive now just wait and see what happens if that bitch hits all the refinerys in the Baytown/Pasadena/Houston Ship channel area...

[Ishta]

Damn...if you think gas is expensive now just wait and see what happens if that bitch hits all the refinerys in the Baytown/Pasadena/Houston Ship channel area...
Personally, I'd rather not see that happen..My suburban is about to kill me on the gas..

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Texas State at Texas A&M, Saturday, 6 PM.

Go ahead and re-name this one Hurricane Bowl II.

[Extra Stout]

Damn...if you think gas is expensive now just wait and see what happens if that bitch hits all the refinerys in the Baytown/Pasadena/Houston Ship channel area...Hello, $6/gallon.

The forecast track has the eyewall going directly over my house. But that's six days away, so the precision of the forecast is sketchy. If things don't change by Wednesday, it'll be time to board everything up and head for the hills.

[MannyIsGod]

The NHC is still saying it is a tropical storm. I'm calling bullshit. That thing is a hurricane.

[Ginofan]

The NHC is still saying it is a tropical storm. I'm calling bullshit. That thing is a hurricane.

Some people on JM's blog were saying that the NHC tends to be conservative about the strength, so you're most likely correct in thinking that it is already a hurricane.

[CrazyOne]

I vote we drop Manny down there with one of those hand wind-gauges that the news people use when they stand out in the rain. :lol

I'm going to be in Brownsville next week to help my parents move out. Hope the rain is over by then.

[MannyIsGod]

I say you guys buy me a video camera and send me wherever this thing is going to make landfall. :)

[travis2]

From the 2PM EST advisory...

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RITA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GEORGETOWN ON GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 165 MILES... 265 KM... SOUTHEAST
OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 380 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH... 23 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF RITA WILL PASS OVER OR NEAR ANDROS
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA KEYS
TUESDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NEAR 70 MPH...115 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND RITA COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

[Hook Dem]

San Antonio could see some significant flooding. Stock up on canned foods.

[Kip Fanatic]

I say you guys buy me a video camera and send me wherever this thing is going to make landfall. :)

I've always wanted to be able to be in the middle of one to catch it on video and to be able to experience the power of one.

[Hook Dem]

How many of you have ever been to Key West? I've been 4 times. Sloppy Joe's & Hogsbreath saloons are still rockin! There are some old timers that will never leave no matter how bad it gets. Just crazy!

[Hook Dem]

I've always wanted to be able to be in the middle of one to catch it on video and to be able to experience the power of one.
I used to feel that way till I almost died in Celia ( Corpus Christi...1970 ) Never again!!!!!! You think you're smarter than a lot of people and "know" how to survive. Hurricanes do not respect that!!

[Extra Stout]

Galveston will begin a voluntary evacuation tomorrow...

[Hook Dem]

Galveston will begin a voluntary evacuation tomorrow...
Good idea!

[Kip Fanatic]

I used to feel that way till I almost died in Celia ( Corpus Christi...1970 ) Never again!!!!!! You think you're smarter than a lot of people and "know" how to survive. Hurricanes do not respect that!!
Maybe so, but the chance of surving it is what draws my attention. Its dumb, I know, but stuff like that really grabs my attention.

[Hook Dem]

Maybe so, but the chance of surving it is what draws my attention. Its dumb, I know, but stuff like that really grabs my attention.
Nothing wrong with being adventurous cause I was in my 30's when that happened but it taught me a valuable lesson. Just ask some of those in NO if they would ride it out again! Not Me!

[Kip Fanatic]

Nothing wrong with being adventurous cause I was in my 30's when that happened but it taught me a valuable lesson. Just ask some of those in NO if they would ride it out again! Not Me!

Understandable.

[MannyIsGod]

Most people who have been through a big one never want to do it again. I went through some as a small child in the valley and I drove through the outer edges of Brent a few years ago. But I want to experience it now. I don't need a full fledged Cat 5. In fact, I'd be happy with a solid Cat 1. I'd like to live.

[Kip Fanatic]

Most people who have been through a big one never want to do it again. I went through some as a small child in the valley and I drove through the outer edges of Brent a few years ago. But I want to experience it now. I don't need a full fledged Cat 5. In fact, I'd be happy with a solid Cat 1. I'd like to live.

I think I'd be down with a Cat. 1 as well. I just want to feel the power of a hurricane. Not the wrath.

[Vashner]

We have a 2 story house in port A. A block from the Coast Guard station. But I would not stay in that thing during a major storm.. it's old and falling apart...

[MannyIsGod]

My best friend's family has a kick ass bayhouse in Rockport. I woudln't stay in that if you paid me. I helped build it and I know how much rebar is around the stilts, but I wouldn't chance that shit holding up under anytype of surge.

The models are backing off of LA for now and back onto Texas.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_model.gif

[Vashner]

yea

[CosmicCowboy]

damn...4 out of 5 show a direct hit on Houston/Galveston. The storm surge into the Galveston bay system could be a mutha...

[MannyIsGod]

The NWS has planes out getting upper air readings all over the gulf today. These readings will then be fed into the next series of model runs, and we'll get a really good idea of what is happening tomorrow morning when those runs come out.

I'm telling you though, this thing is going to come after Texas.

[MiNuS]

[QUOTE=eriks]My first weekend off was scheduled for next weekend. Nice timing.

nevermind

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

I haven't read the whole thread, but I read somewhere that Galveston officials will make a decision regarding evacuation by this time tomorrow.

[MannyIsGod]

Thats probably a good idea. That will put them at about 3 days out. Not a bad time for a voluntary evac.

[easjer]

LOL. We are hosting a recruitment event at work on Saturday, and we just got a couple of calls asking what we would do if we are hit by the hurricane - will there be a change of venue?

Heh. Yeah, lady, if we get hit - I'm out of here for one, and two, your access to the campus will be cut off by flooding. But thanks for your interest!

[CosmicCowboy]

Thats probably a good idea. That will put them at about 3 days out. Not a bad time for a voluntary evac.

It better be a mandatory evacuation. The highest point on Galveston Island is 15 feet above sea level. Most of the west end is 5 feet or less. A Katrina type storm surge would put the surge seven feet over the seawall, and there is NO backside or west end protection.

A good comparison would Dauphin Island off of Alabama...Katrina destroyed the island. It's gone. If it looks like Galveston is the target and they don't order a mandatory evacation I will be amazed...

[TheWriter]

Mayor Nagin says it's going to hit Louisiana.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Mayor Nagin says it's going to hit Louisiana.

Can he tell me the lottery numbers, too?

[MannyIsGod]

Nagin is on crack.

CC, the chances of the surge from this storm being like Katrina are very slim. But I would order a mandatory either way, a cat 3 is a strong storm.

[TheWriter]

Nagin is on crack.

CC, the chances of the surge from this storm being like Katrina are very slim. But I would order a mandatory either way, a cat 3 is a strong storm.

Rita hasn't even hit the gulf.

Katrina was a homeless bum prior to hitting the gulf. Once she did, she became a millionaire.

Right now, Rita looks like a woman on welfare.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Katrina was a homeless bum prior to hitting the gulf. Once she did, she became a millionaire.

Right now, Rita looks like a woman on welfare.

Those have to be the worst analogies I've ever heard in my 25 years of life.

I'd like my ten seconds back now, please.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

Geez, if these models are correct then it looks like Mother Nature is trying to chase the population of Louisiana all the way to California. Granted Houston won't be wiped off the map the way NOLA was but this is still pretty fucked up.

Why, oh why, couldn't Bush have signed the Kyoto protocols? If only he had everything would be OK.

[MannyIsGod]

Rita hasn't even hit the gulf.

Katrina was a homeless bum prior to hitting the gulf. Once she did, she became a millionaire.

Right now, Rita looks like a woman on welfare.
You're a fucking idiot.

[MannyIsGod]

Geez, if these models are correct then it looks like Mother Nature is trying to chase the population of Louisiana all the way to California. Granted Houston won't be wiped off the map the way NOLA was but this is still pretty fucked up.

Why, oh why, couldn't Bush have signed the Kyoto protocols? If only he had everything would be OK.
Kyoto has nothing to do with this hurricane. NOTHING. I wish people would STFU about that.

[CosmicCowboy]

Nagin is on crack.

CC, the chances of the surge from this storm being like Katrina are very slim. But I would order a mandatory either way, a cat 3 is a strong storm.

Manny...the very nature of the beaches/coastal shelf in Galveston accentuate the surge...there is such a shallow and gradually sloping shelf that water tends to stack up there...

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Kyoto has nothing to do with this hurricane. NOTHING. I wish people would STFU about that.

I think you're wrong there, Manny.

See, Kyoto is like a GTG at Kori and LJ's place.

Since it's like that, then we must conclude that sheep are fluffy.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

Kyoto has nothing to do with this hurricane. NOTHING. I wish people would STFU about that.

Didn't mean to hit a sore spot. I was only kidding. Trust me, I'm just as tired of that bullshit. Kyoto didn't break the levee, and Kyoto didn't make people botch the relief effort at every level. But I digress.

At the risk of sounding a little stupid, Manny how is it that you are so learned about the weather? Do you work for the Nat. Weather Service or something?

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

At the risk of sounding a little stupid, Manny how is it that you are so learned about the weather? Do you work for the Nat. Weather Service or something?

He's a weather geek.

[CharlieMac]

Rita hasn't even hit the gulf.

Katrina was a homeless bum prior to hitting the gulf. Once she did, she became a millionaire.

Right now, Rita looks like a woman on welfare.

You could have taken this opportunity to use the word, "Hobo". How fun is that to say outloud?







Hobo.

[MannyIsGod]

Didn't mean to hit a sore spot. I was only kidding. Trust me, I'm just as tired of that bullshit. Kyoto didn't break the levee, and Kyoto didn't make people botch the relief effort at every level. But I digress.

At the risk of sounding a little stupid, Manny how is it that you are so learned about the weather? Do you work for the Nat. Weather Service or something?
Kyoto was no factor in ANYTHING about the storm. Attempting to tie global warming into any one storm is foolish and has no scientific merrit.

As for me and the weather, I'm just a nerd. I read about this stuff a lot, and take every oportunity like this to learn more. At the least, I've probably given myself at least a portion of an undergrad education in atmospheric sciences. :lol

[MannyIsGod]

Manny...the very nature of the beaches/coastal shelf in Galveston accentuate the surge...there is such a shallow and gradually sloping shelf that water tends to stack up there...
CC, All I'm saying is that Katrina type storms do not come along very often, much less in such little time span. It is defeintly possible, but very very very unlikely this storm will ever make it as powerful as Katrina and even less likely it would sustain the strength long enough to reach land.

Also, it is my understanding the area around Galveston Bay actually has some decent sea walls unlike NO.

We'll see how it plays out. Hopefully this thing doesn't get to be like Katrina.

[easjer]

Manny, I see you've met my fiance's (spurs_fan_in_exile) twisted humor. I cracked the Kyoto joke as well when I heard about this. It's good we're getting married.

My question, in all seriousness is whether or not we should evacuate if it continues towards Houston/Galveston. We won't flood in my area (from experience), but I don't know what wind damage, etc could do. I know we'll be fucked if we lose power, because we wouldn't be able to boil water or cook food, but J is talking about not evacuating, and most of the natives are laughing at the idea of evacuating for less than a Cat 4.

[CosmicCowboy]

what area are you in?

[easjer]

SW side of Houston.

Second floor apartment, but not near a bayou (no flooding).

[CosmicCowboy]

I lived near Sugarland (southwest Houston) When Alicia hit in '83...it weakened significantly before coming ashore as a category 1 or 2...we had 95-100 mph winds and the water in the street was almost up to our front door...a spinoff toronado destroyed a church about a half mile away...it would have killed us if it had hit the house. It was raining glass in downtown Houston. As wimpy as that storm was it did over a billion dollars worth of damage in the Houston area...

If you are in Houston and it looks like Rita is going to be a category 3 I suggest boarding up and getting the hell out of there...

[1369]

easjer, everywhere in Hoston floods. I remember when I lived in Richmond back in the late 90's going to one of the "park and rides" for the Rodeo and I parked under a sign that said something like "During floods this sign will be under 10+ feet of water". That was around the time of a tropical storm of some sort (this was '99 I think) and all kinds of areas flooded and streets shut down.

Just play it safe and get out if asked. How bad can it be? If you're wrong, so you spend 2-3 days shacked up with your fiance eating room service and not having to change your own sheets.

[TheWriter]

You're a fucking idiot.

I'm using that analogy to describe the fact that Katrina was a cat 1 when it hit he gulf and as soon as it did, it ballooned to a CAT 5.

This storm looks huge and it hasn't even hit the gulf yet.

And quit name calling.

[easjer]

I was there in the same apartment during Allison, and no flooding. The major areas, oh yes, but otherwise . . . the biggest inconvenience I had was no cell phone service (I don't use a landline). My apartment complex is on high ground.

My feeling is that we pack up the cat and go stay with my mom in New Braunfels. If there is bad enough flooding, we'll just be there straight through the wedding and honeymoon. . . but J is not so keen (and apparently, neither are many of my colleagues).

[CosmicCowboy]

I saw what category 1 winds can do. Transformers were exploding up and down the street..We lost power for 36 hours and it tore shit up all over the place...power lines were blown down everywhere...water was literally blowing through the walls around the windows...and it was a brand new "tight" house...I am confident cat 2 winds would have blown the windows right out...

[Ginofan]

I'm using that analogy to describe the fact that Katrina was a cat 1 when it hit he gulf and as soon as it did, it ballooned to a CAT 5.

This storm looks huge and it hasn't even hit the gulf yet.

And quit name calling.

The gulf is cooler now than it was for Katrina, to get CAT 4s and 5s you need super warm water. Also, Katrina was the 4th strongest hurricane in US history...KEEP THAT IN MIND. Storms like that don't happen often at all. This WILL NOT be Katrina II.

[TheWriter]

The gulf is cooler than it was for Katrina. Katrina was the 4th strongest hurricane in US history...KEEP THAT IN MIND. Storms like that don't happen often at all. This WILL NOT be Katrina II.

They'll happen more often now. El Nino, global warming.

[AlamoSpursFan]

:lol

I hope you get rained out.

Considering that the main attraction our land holds for doves is our two stock tanks, any significant rain in the northern LaSalle County area will pretty much ruin the hunting for at least a week or two.

And yes, I do have my priorities in order. Thank you very much.

[Manu20]

Tropical Storm Rita Discussion Number 8


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 19, 2005



Rita is close to hurricane status... but it is not quite there yet.
The storm is producing some very deep convection near the center...
banding features in the northern and eastern quadrants...and
increasingly well-established outflow indicating lessening shear.
The overall extent of deep convection has decreased somewhat during
the past couple of hours...but this often occurs during the
afternoon convective minimum period. Data from the stepped
frequency microwave radiometer...SFMR...onboard a NOAA hurricane
hunter aircraft...recently indicated surface winds as strong as 62
kt about 25 N mi southeast of the center. The minimum central
pressure measured by dropsonde has been holding at 994-995 mb...
and the advisory intensity is maintained at 60 kt.

Rita is on track... and as anticipated is moving a little faster
toward the west-northwest...now at 285/12. Models remain in tight
agreement that this motion will change little during the next
couple of days...except for a slight Bend to the west into the Gulf
of Mexico to the south of the mid level ridge along about 30n. The
dynamical models have generally shifted slightly back to the left
or west at days 3 through 5...bringing the consensus into good
agreement with the previous advisory. Overall the new suite of
guidance provides little reason to make any changes to the official
forecast track... except to speed it up just slightly. However...
the spread in the models over the Gulf remains significant...since
it is not clear if the ridge over the southeastern U.S. Will
migrate far enough eastward late in the forecast period to curve
Rita northward around its western periphery. The NOGAPS and GFDN
forecast a straight westward track into southern Texas...while the
GFS and GFDL forecast a northward Bend toward the Texas/Lousiana
border region. Given this uncertainty...it must again be emphasized
that forecast errors can be quite large at these longer lead times.

Even though Rita is not yet a hurricane...conditions appear
conducive for it to become one soon...prior to reaching the Gulf of
Mexico. Intensification to major hurricane status over the Gulf of
Mexico appears probable...given that the dynamical models are
forecasting a large upper level anticyclone to dominate the area
and provide an environment of weak wind shear. Additionally...ocean
temperatures are quite warm in the Gulf...and not just at the
surface. The new official intensity forecast is basically an update
of the previous one through day 3...then calling for a peak at 105
kt over the Gulf in accordance with the latest SHIPS guidance. The
GFDL and FSU superensemble forecast an even stronger hurricane over
the Gulf...and this is certainly possible.

Forecaster Knabb

[MannyIsGod]

They'll happen more often now. El Nino, global warming.
El Nino prevents storm development in the Atlanic due to incrased shear values. Do you pride yourself on speaking on things you know absolutely nothing about? You do a damn good job of that.

[Manu20]

They'll happen more often now. El Nino, global warming.
:lol

[CosmicCowboy]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_sat.jpg

this baby is startin to cook up...

[CosmicCowboy]

Hmm...I was just looking at that storm track again...I know there could be a lot of variation between now and then, but do you know what is currently sitting in the bullseye of the strike zone? The South Texas Nuclear Plant in Bay City...

[MannyIsGod]

A Cat 5 won't harm a power plant. They are built to enourmous specificatoins, if I'm not mistaken.

[CosmicCowboy]

A Cat 5 won't harm a power plant. They are built to enourmous specificatoins, if I'm not mistaken.

The core is. All the support stuff isn't. Hopefully they are already starting to take it off line...They can't just do that overnight...

[samikeyp]

so the lastest tracks have it hitting Houston? that probably means we won't get any rain.

[samikeyp]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1805W5+gif/210636W_sm.gif

[CosmicCowboy]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_5day.gif

[samikeyp]

You want to impress me Manny? Bring me a cold front, bitch! :p

[TheAdmiral#50]

Rita hasn't even hit the gulf.

Katrina was a homeless bum prior to hitting the gulf. Once she did, she became a millionaire.

Right now, Rita looks like a woman on welfare.


LOL.....http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v661/payton34smith22/Gifavs/davechapelleliljon26nn.gif

[SpursWoman]

You want to impress me Manny? Bring me a cold front, bitch! :p


No shit......I've set up the direct deposit of my paycheck straight to CPS. :depressed :lol

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

You don't think I want a cold front? We should hopefully get one in the next 2 weeks sometime.

[tw05baller]

im holding you to that

[Ocotillo]

Step daughter called and said they are asking people to be ready to get out of Beaumont.

[Vashner]

There is always a cold front on Hallows eve.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Just talked to one of my friends in Galveston.


I'm not gonna leave, my plan is to wait it out and wait for the Coast Guard and FEMA to come save me

:lol

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

Not funny, but funny.

This storm is blowing up. I wonder what the NHC will say in 30 minutes. If they don't call it a huricane, I'm going to kick some NHC ass.

[Vashner]

Yea because on the 8pm advisory it says around 70mph.. isn't that CAT1?

[Manu20]

Yea because on the 8pm advisory it says around 70mph.. isn't that CAT1?
No, it needs to be 74mph or grater.

[Manu20]

As of 10 pm CDT it is still a tropical storm and sustained winds are 70mph with gusts to 85mph.

Manny is going to kick some NHC ass.

[Ocotillo]

http://cctvimedia.clearchannel.com/woai/bios/jen120.jpg

Any chance of WOAI sending this woman in the path of the storm?

[MannyIsGod]

All Dvorak readings point to a storm of 80mph intensity, and the NHC still calls it at 70 just because they can't get wind readings.

That is a mistake. People don't take a tropical storm as seriously as a hurricane, and this thing is a hurricane at the moment and will only get stronger. I don't know what they're reasoning is, but that storm is a hurricane.

[Neuromancer]

All Dvorak readings point to a storm of 80mph intensity, and the NHC still calls it at 70 just because they can't get wind readings.

That is a mistake. People don't take a tropical storm as seriously as a hurricane, and this thing is a hurricane at the moment and will only get stronger. I don't know what they're reasoning is, but that storm is a hurricane.


Fuck this sucks, this thing might get huge before it hits the coast.

[MannyIsGod]

The 0z GFS brings it back to the middle Texas coast.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_120l.gif

[midgetonadonkey]

At what catagory?

[MannyIsGod]

Impossible to tell from the GFS. But if I were a betting man I'd say a weak cat 3.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Talked to one of my buds down at the A&M Meteorology dept. tonight during the Cowboys game. They are projecting a weak cat 4.

[MannyIsGod]

I just don't see the heat content in the Gulf to warrant that. But, I digress, we'll see.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

The TABS (Texas Automated Buoy System) setup run by the A&M Geography Department out in the Gulf is registering upper 80s water temps, forecasted to peak about 90 in the next couple of days, they think that will be enough to spin it up to a cat4.

[TheWriter]

I'm hearing San Antonio will see a large influx of evacuees because of Rita.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Galveston TV stations are recommending Waco, College Station, Austin, and SA.

Houston TV stations too.

[MannyIsGod]

However, that layer is very shallow. The THC (total heat content) of the ocean there isnt' very strong. Here, I'll show you some graphics to illustrate what I'm saying.

These are the tempatures

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005261gosst.png

This is the total heat content

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005261go.jpg

The places with about 90 KJcm2 are the places you will see a cyclone intensify rapidly. There are some locations like that across the gulf, but it isn't as hot as it was before Katrina. Even though it has been a month, that storm took quite a bit of energy out of the Gulf.

It still is possible though. So we will see.

[MannyIsGod]

This image shows some examples of how that happens with 3 storms that went over "hotspots" in THCP.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/images/HHPOMB.jpg

Hurricane Opal in the Gulf of Mexico, August-September 1995 (left):
This TC intensified from hurricane-1 (74-95 mph winds) to hurricane 4 (131-155 mph winds) while traveling over a number of warm features in the Gulf of Mexico. In particular, this TC suddenly intensified from hurricane-2 (96-110 mph winds) to hurricane-4 in a period of 10 hours when its track went over a very well defined ring with a mean radius of 150 km that had been shed by the Loop Current. Altimeter-derived fields indicate that the increase in TCHP associated with this warm ring was approximately 30 kJ/cm2. The most striking information of the ocean conditions during the life span of this hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico was that this warm ring was not detected using the AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature fields.

Hurricane Mitch in the Caribbean Sea, October 1998 (center):
This cyclone intensified from hurricane 2 to hurricane 5 (winds above 155 mph) when its track traveled over a region of warm surface waters, experiencing an intensification from hurricane 3 (111-130 mph winds) to 5 with an increase in values of TCHP approximately 80 kJ/cm2 under the track of the TC in 22 hours.

Hurricane Bret in the Gulf of Mexico, August 1999 (right):
This hurricane intensified several times in the SW Gulf of Mexico in a period of approximately 36 hours while traveling over two warm features remnants of one warm ring that had been shed by the Loop Current several months earlier. The increase in TCHP under the track of the TC during this period was approximately 80 kJ/cm2.

In these cases an association was observed between the increase in TC intensity and a raise in the value of TCHP under the track of each of the TCs. Preliminary evaluation of the upper ocean thermal conditions during the intensification of 32 of the 36 strongest TCs in the tropical Atlantic from 1993 to 2000 indicates that their intensification can be associated with the passage of their tracks over regions, with increased TCHP of at least 20 kJ/cm2.


Left is Opal, center is Mitch, and to the right is Brett.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Manny, you've got too much time on your hands :lol

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

I eat this shit up. Seriously. I love all weather, but hurricane season is just me waiting for the next storm. My mom tells me I used to watch the Weather Channel as a kid. When I was like 7. I crack up when I think about that.

[Vashner]

come to victoria

we've got shit

Yea I have been there a few times... there are a few hot latina chicks that's about it...

[Vashner]

I want the storm to hit us.. and the power to go out.. storms are fun...

[MannyIsGod]

Now the last GFDL brings it even further south. That is the red track. Yes, the one that eventually brings it right over San Antonio.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_model.gif

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Damn, I'm supposed to be in victoria on business next Monday. Maybe not :lol

[MannyIsGod]

These model runs are a lot more accurate than the previous ones. These have a lot of upper air recon info input into them,and notice how they have all clustered because of that.

Not looking that good for us here.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Yeah, looks like life is fixing to suck for Corpus as well.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Son of a bitch, bastard. That fucking thing seems to be heading straight for victoria. And SA.
This sucks!

[Vashner]

Watch.. an oak will fall on my house and i'll be like "uh. .dumbass" for wishing it here...

[travis2]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

Check out the 3-day track graphics archive. It's been damn consistent the whole time.

[SpursWoman]

Thank God for homeowner's insurance. I wish my house would get totalled, the way it's been going it would be waaay easier to rebuild than it has been to remodel.

:fro

If it came this way, what kind of intensity would it have this far inland?



ROFLMFAO @ waiting it out for the coast guard & FEMA to save him :lmao :lmao

[travis2]

Thank God for homeowner's insurance. I wish my house would get totalled, the way it's been going it would be waaay easier to rebuild than it has been to remodel.

:fro

If it came this way, what kind of intensity would it have this far inland?



ROFLMFAO @ waiting it out for the coast guard & FEMA to save him :lmao :lmao

It would have to be a monster for SA to see anything more than tropical storm winds...and only a low to moderate TS at that.

SA would be in danger from tornados dropping out of the system and from flooding from heavy rains.

[SpursWoman]

Thank God for homeowner's insurance. I wish my house would get totalled, the way it's been going it would be waaay easier to rebuild than it has been to remodel.


(that was a joke, btw...I'm not stupid) :spin

[exstatic]

Yeah, last time we had remnants blow through, there were tornados. Lots of damage at Kelly, and the roof was taken off of a gas station at 281/Bitters.

[1369]

Ex, when was that? I lived right at 281/Bitters growing up and don't recall that (I'm assuming you're talking about the Diamond Shamrock at the intersection). I remember when Gilbert came in and all the tornados around the I 10/1604 end of town, but not in my area.

[CosmicCowboy]

dang...big shift down the coast during the night...If this baby hits Port Aransas as a strong 3/weak 4 it is gonna seriously tear some stuff up...the real estate market has been booming like crazy down there and a lot of KB quality/custom priced shit has been thrown up on the island that only sits 4-5 feet above sea level...

Nothing like a good hurricane to knock the bloom off a crazy coastal real estate market...

[1369]

My money is on the Seadrift/Port Lavaca area.

[CosmicCowboy]

My money is on the Seadrift/Port Lavaca area.

we should have a good idea in the morning. The models have been really accurate this year from 3 days out..

[travis2]

Here's the update as of 10 minutes ago...it's a hurricane.

000
WTNT63 KNHC 201311
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

DOPPLER RADAR DATA...SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PRESSURE FALLS FROM
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED CATEGORY
ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS
WILL BE REFLECTED ON THE 11 AM...1500Z ADVISORY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[travis2]

here's the discussion from 0400L

THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF RITA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...
BUT THE CYCLONE STILL LACKS A CLEAR AND PERSISTENT EYEWALL
SIGNATURE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STILL DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT UPGRADING
RITA TO A HURRICANE. A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 72 KT WOULD
CORRESPOND TO 65 KT AT THE SURFACE IN AN EYEWALL...BUT RITA DOES
NOT HAVE A TRUE EYEWALL AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT 90 PERCENT
IS NOT THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. THE
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT.

RITA REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/13.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE EARLY
GOING...AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS...UKMET...
AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS
COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS STILL ON THE SOUTH END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IN EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE WESTWARD TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. AT THIS
POINT IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHERE THE GULF LANDFALL MIGHT
OCCUR.

RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH VERY SOON. THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT NOT
OVERLY SO...WITH OUTFLOW A LITTLE SQUASHED TO THE NORTH AND
NON-EXISTENT TO THE SOUTH...AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. EVEN THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS
ELONGATED. STEADY...BUT NOT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE UPPER PATTERN COULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE. THE MOST RECENT SHIPS GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT
QUITE GET RITA THERE...AND I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF RITA ENDS UP
FALLING JUST SHORT OF THAT THRESHOLD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[boutons]

Looks like Palacios/Bay City (and South Texas Nuclear Power Plant).

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=corpus+christi,+tx&ll=28.762242,-96.036987&spn=0.450604,0.748856&hl=en

[easjer]

Yes, it's definitely shifted to the south. Good news for us here, bad news for folks there. Although, Katrina was a dead on hit for NO, until it turned east unexpectedly. So I hope we continue to take it seriously.

BTW, Houston/Galveston evac routes are NOT through to SA and Austin. They are all north, via I45 (the North Freeway), I290, I59 (Eastex). Evac shelters will be in Brenham, College Station, Lufkin and Huntsville. People will evac to SA (we will if we need to), but because of the major overhaul of I10 (the Katy freeway - down to four lanes total while they work on expansion) they can't use it for effective evacuation.

It's good to see these newest models. But they are working here to get people ready to be moved off campus and shit like that. We'll be stocking up on water and batteries tonight, I think, just to be safe.

[SWC Bonfire]

If this thing hits Palacios and goes due north San Antonio won't see a drop of rain.

[Ginofan]

It's about freakin' time they started calling it a hurricane, I thought they were smoking crack when I checked out the 8am advisory and it was still a TS!!!

http://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BYX&brand=wui&num=0&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1127221370&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0



Once Rita emerges into the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, continued strengthening is expected--but not explosive deepening. The center of the upper-level high that Rita needs to carry away all the air her eyewall convection is injecting into the upper atmosphere is located to the east of her, and thus the outflow over Rita is poor in some areas, particularly the south side. This situation is predicted to improve some and allow Rita to strengthen to a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday. Water temperatures over the middle of the Gulf of Mexico are 1 - 2C cooler than those near Key West, thanks to all the cold water stirred up by Katrina. This may keep Rita as a strong Category 2 hurricane. Once Rita approaches the coast of Texas, the cold water wake of Katrina ends and water temperatures warm up again, which may allow some more intensification. Rita is not expected to reach Category 4 status.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

I guess this is the right thread to post in regarding this. I was watching the news here in Houston last night and understandably alot of stuff was focusing on the impending hurricane. Well one of the stories was about the fact that they're busing the remaining Katrina refugees in the domes and in the George R. Brown Convention Center to a military base in Arkansas. They showed a few folks in interviews who were saying shit like, "This is unfair. None of this adds up. This is just an excuse to get us out of here."

Yes, of course, this is just all a big fucking conspiracy to dick around hurricane victims. It wouldn't simply be a pre-emptive measure because:
1) It's probably not a good idea to have thousands of people under one roof when said roof is in the path of an oncoming hurricane, esp. when its not a building that was built spefically to deal with hurricanes like the Superdome was.
2) Heaven fucking forbid that Houston should give its own citizens priority when considering how many people could be displaced by this storm. Grrrrrrrr.

I feel a little guilty for saying this, and maybe its just the media stirring up this shit and there are plenty of people who are grateful for all that's been done to help in this crisis, but I'm really tired of these people's bullshit.

[1369]

Latest and greatest...


Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 11


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 20, 2005



Rita has become the ninth hurricane of the 2005 season. Data from
Doppler radar from Key West...satellite and reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that Rita has become a hurricane. Doppler radar peak
winds at 5 to 10 thousand feet have been oscillating between 90 and
95 knots with an isolated peak of 100 knots...and dropsondes in the
eyewall support an initial intensity of 75 knots. The pressure has
decreased to 982 mb...and the satellite presentation has improved
with very deep convection and well-established outflow. Both the
upper-level environment and the ocean below Rita are conducive for
additional intensification. The official forecast gradually brings
the winds up but...it does not include the distinct possibility of
rapid intensification in the Gulf of Mexico since it is difficult
to forecast. Rita will have plenty of time over the Gulf of Mexico
to go up and down in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles.

Rita is moving westward or 270 degrees at 13 knots since it is
already south of a deep layer mean ridge. This pattern is forecast
to persist for the next 24 to 48 hours. Therafter...the high is
expected to move eastward leaving a weakness over the western Gulf
of Mexico. This forecast pattern should eventually force Rita
toward the northwest toward the Texas coast. This is one the cases
of relatively high confidence in the track forecast since most of
the reliable guidance are tightly clustered. For those who follow
just the skinny black line...it is always good to remind them that
3 to 5 day forecast errors can be large.

Forecaster Avila


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/1500z 23.8n 81.0w 75 kt
12hr VT 21/0000z 24.0n 83.1w 80 kt
24hr VT 21/1200z 24.3n 85.8w 85 kt
36hr VT 22/0000z 24.5n 88.3w 90 kt
48hr VT 22/1200z 24.5n 90.5w 95 kt
72hr VT 23/1200z 26.0n 94.0w 100 kt
96hr VT 24/1200z 29.5n 96.4w 65 kt...inland
120hr VT 25/1200z 33.5n 97.5w 30 kt...inland

[CosmicCowboy]

It's all about when that high slides East now...hours could make a huge difference in where it makes landfall...

[easjer]

It's all about when that high slides East now...hours could make a huge difference in where it makes landfall...

Yep. *biting fingernails* They are telling people not to get complacent because it looks to move father south (especially since it looks as if we'll get rain bands either way), and prepare to make decisions Wednesday regarding evacuations or staying. Galveston is selling out of plywood.

[cheguevara]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/Gulf/latest_wv.jpg

awesome pic, it's my new bg

[Ginofan]

awesome pic, it's my new bg

You should've seen the ones for Katrina, they were unbelievable!

[2pac]

Gonna be a fun weekend here in Houston.


You think I will still be taking pics of HS football Friday night?

[SpursWoman]

GALVESTON, Texas — Taking a cue from the suffering in New Orleans, officials called for a voluntary evacuation of this island city as Hurricane Rita threatened to blow across the Gulf of Mexico and slam into the Texas coast by this weekend.

This month marks the 105th anniversary of the hurricane that wiped out Galveston in one of the deadliest natural disasters in U.S. history. An estimated 8,000 people were killed.

Gov. Rick Perry recalled all emergency personnel helping with recovery from Hurricane Katrina to prepare for Rita, including almost 1,200 Texas National Guard members.

"Obviously it's heightened because of Katrina," Galveston County Judge Jim Yarbrough said. "Nobody wants to make a mistake."

Rita, approaching the Florida Keys, was upgraded to a hurricane Tuesday morning when sustained wind reached 75 mph.

"The time is now to begin mobilizing our resources and implementing our plan to ensure an orderly response before Texas is hit," Perry said.

Texas already is host to Hurricane Katrina evacuees from New Orleans, especially in the Houston area, and Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said emergency officials told him to be prepared to take them in because of Rita.

"We could potentially be looking at taking an enormous amount of people from Houston," Huckabee said. "We're going to have to prepare in the event. It would tax us if we had to, but we would do it."

Arkansas already is home to about 50,000 Katrina evacuees, most of them staying with friends and relatives.

Various computer projections of Rita's course suggest it could be in the northwest Gulf of Mexico near Mexico or Texas by the weekend, after crossing the gulf's warm water that supplies energy to tropical storms.

Officials in Galveston, which is some 40 miles southeast of Houston, said residents should begin leaving Tuesday.

"Today is boarding up and decision day for Galvestonians," city spokeswoman Mary Jo Naschke said Tuesday morning.

Buses were to begin running Wednesday morning for people who can't leave on their own, taking them to shelters about 100 miles north in Huntsville. About 250 people had already made reservations for the bus as of noon Monday, Naschke said.

Residents may take their pets along on the buses if the animals are in cages, Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas (search) said.

"We found that so many people didn't want to leave New Orleans because they didn't want to leave their pets behind," she said. (cool :) )

Officials said a mandatory evacuation could be ordered if Rita strengthens into a Category 3 hurricane, with wind of up to 130 mph and the potential to create flooding up to 8 miles inland.

The approaching storm was affecting offshore oil operations, already hobbled by Katrina damage. Chevron Corp., Shell Oil and BP PLC all began evacuating employees from oil and gas platforms. Marathon Oil Corp. was evacuating 40 people doing repair work on three platforms damaged by Katrina, a spokesman said Monday.

[j-6]

I just saw that Rita's a Cat 2 now.

[travis2]

000
WTUS82 KEYW 201714 AAB
HLSEYW
FLZ076-077-078-GMZ031-032-033-052-053-054-072-073-074-075-201830-

HURRICANE RITA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
120 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

...RITA NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...

...NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJOINING WATERS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR GREATER AND STORM SURGE FLOODING...ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. A TORNADO WATCH
MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO
THE WATCH AREA.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTH
OF MARATHON...AND ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST. HURRICANE
RITA IS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RITA WILL PASS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT 115 PM EDT...MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA HAVE INCREASED TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS
AND ARE NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 978 MB...OR 28.88 INCHES OF MERCURY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL STORM PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE AND FURTHER EVACUATIONS
ARE NOT ADVISABLE DUE TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS WHO HAVE REMAINED IN THE KEYS SHOULD STAY IN PLACE OR SEEK
SHELTER AT THE FOLLOWING REFUGES OF LAST RESORT...IN KEY WEST...KEY
WEST HIGH SCHOOL...2100 FLAGLER AVENUE. HARVEY GOVERNMENT CENTER...
1200 TRUMAN AVENUE. CROWN PLAZA LA CONCHA...403 DUVAL STREET. WYNDAM
CASA MARINA RESORT...1500 REYNOLDS STREET. ON MARATHON...STANLEY
SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 48. ON DUCK KEY...HAWKS CAY
RESORT...MILE MARKER 61. IN ISLAMORADA...ISLAMORADA LIBRARY...MILE
MARKER 81.5. ISLAND CHRISTIAN SCHOOL...MILE MARKER 83.4. ON
PLANTATION KEY...ST. JAMES EPISCOPAL CHURCH. IN TAVERNIER...
TAVERNIER HEALTH DEPARTMENT...148 GEORGIA AVENUE. IN KEY LARGO...
WESTIN BEACH RESORT...MILE MARKER 98. MARRIOT KEY LARGO BAY BEACH
RESORT...MILE MARKER 103.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TOTAL STORM TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN
THE LOWER KEYS. THIS WILL INUNDATE SOME ROADS AND SECTIONS OF THE
OVERSEAS HIGHWAY. THE FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL HAS REPORTED WATER AND
WAVE ACTION OVER THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY IN A NUMBER OF AREAS. THE
OVERSEAS HIGHWAY AT 73.5 MILE MARKER IS IMPASSABLE AND HAS BEEN
BARRICADED TO ALL TRAFFIC. OTHER SPECIFIC AREAS ON THE OVERSEAS
HIGHWAY WHICH ARE SEEING ENCROACHING WATER INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING...
MILE MARKER 11...MILE MARKERS 34 THROUGH 35...MILE MARKER 58...MILE
MARKER 62...MILE MARKER 68...MILE MARKERS 85 THROUGH 87...AND MILE
MARKER 110. HIGH TIDES AT WHALE HARBOR CHANNEL IS AT 1129 PM TODAY.
HIGH TIDES AT KEY WEST HARBOR ARE AT 230 PM TODAY...1208 AM EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

...WIND IMPACTS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. SUSTAINED CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS OF 74 TO 95 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS...FROM
SUGARLOAF KEY TO KEY WEST THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS MAY RECEIVE SOME ROOF DAMAGE TO POORLY CONSTRUCTED HOMES AND
BUSINESSES. A FEW TREES AND POWER POLES MAY BE TOPPLED AS WELL.
MOBILE HOMES ARE NOT SAFE. POWER OUTAGES HAVE OCCURRED IN MANY
ISLAND COMMUNITIES. POWER WILL BE OUT FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
DAMAGE TO PIERS AND DOCKS IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND
MARINAS MAY BE FLOODED. SMALL CRAFT IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WILL
BE TORN FROM MOORINGS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET BEYOND THE
REEF TODAY...WITH SEAS OF 25 TO 30 FEET NEAR THE CENTER OF HURRICANE
RITA.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPIRAL RAINBANDS MOVING THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

...RAINFALL IMPACTS...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. RAIN WATER IS LIKELY TO ACCUMULATE
AND ENTER SOME HOMES...AND MANY STREETS WILL BE IMPASSABLE FROM
WATER AND DEBRIS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT CONCERNING THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANE RITA ON
THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 230 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF
NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION YOU
MAY VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST.

[nkdlunch]

You should've seen the ones for Katrina, they were unbelievable!

where? I wanna see them

[travis2]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.kbyx/latest.gif

Looks like the eyewall is trying to close...

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Gov. Perry is also pre-deploying Texas National Guard Units into Houston, College Station, and Corpus last I heard, so they can be quickly dispatched to the areas that need them after the storm hits.

[Ginofan]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/288.jpg
She might be trying to get her act together, next few hours should be interesting! Here's a live feed from Miami if anyone is interested LINK (http://www.cbs4.com/).

NKD, I'll gather them up for you when I get home from work.

[travis2]

Looking at the one-hour radar loop, the eyewall is really thinking about coming together...

[CosmicCowboy]

She could easily kick from Cat 2 to Cat 3 before she clears the strait...

[Ginofan]

Yeah some of the weather nerds on Jeff Masters Blog are saying she is nearing CAT 3 already...

[MannyIsGod]

000
URNT12 KNHC 201746
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/17:30:30Z
B. 23 deg 46 min N
081 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2911 m
D. 65 kt
E. 121 deg 009 nm
F. 215 deg 075 kt
G. 126 deg 014 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 9 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E240/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1018A RITA OB 30
MAX FL WIND 85 KT W QUAD 16:46:40 Z
RAGGED EYE

The eye is still open to the north west, but the pressure is falling quite fast now and the winds are up to 85 kts in the western quadrant which isn't the strongest.

[MannyIsGod]

She's not a CAT3 right now, and untill that eye closes off I don't think she will be.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah some of the weather nerds on Jeff Masters Blog are saying she is nearing CAT 3 already...
:lol

Some of the idiots on Master's blog.

[easjer]

Any updated predictions on Gulf landfall? Or are they maintaining where they were?

And where are you looking for this stuff?

[travis2]

000
URNT12 KNHC 201746
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/17:30:30Z
B. 23 deg 46 min N
081 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2911 m
D. 65 kt
E. 121 deg 009 nm
F. 215 deg 075 kt
G. 126 deg 014 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 9 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. E240/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1018A RITA OB 30
MAX FL WIND 85 KT W QUAD 16:46:40 Z
RAGGED EYE

The eye is still open to the north west, but the pressure is falling quite fast now and the winds are up to 85 kts in the western quadrant which isn't the strongest.

Yeah, that's the same opening that is to the north in the 1810L picture...

[travis2]

Any updated predictions on Gulf landfall? Or are they maintaining where they were?

And where are you looking for this stuff?

Landfall predictions are still really iffy. The continued westward path is pretty reasonable right now...but (as was mentioned earlier) even a few hours difference one way or the other in when Rita turns north will make a BIG difference as to where it hits.

Really won't be able to narrow it down until (I'd say) Thursday or so...

EDIT: Oh yeah, you can get to the Hurricane Center website from www.weather.gov...

Also, the stuff is repeated at the NWS Key West website...http://www.srh.weather.gov/eyw/HTML/TD18.html

[MannyIsGod]

:lol

Some of the idiots on Master's blog.
The next model runs should be in later this afternoon. But I don't expect many more shifts. What you see is what you get from this point out, and Texas is getting hit one way or another.

[MannyIsGod]

Landfall predictions are still really iffy. The continued westward path is pretty reasonable right now...but (as was mentioned earlier) even a few hours difference one way or the other in when Rita turns north will make a BIG difference as to where it hits.

Really won't be able to narrow it down until (I'd say) Thursday or so...
I don't know, the last 24 hours they've had up planes sampling the atmosphere and gathering all kinds of data. This whole season when they run the upper air flights and get a shitload of data, the models usually respond with a huge increase in accuracy. I don't expect much deviation from this point on.

But of course, withthe shape of the Texas coast and the angles involved, the speed of the turn as well as the exact timing play such a huge role so you're probably right. I think the lower coast is pretty safe from a direct hit unless the trof comes in way late.

[Ginofan]

:lol

Some of the idiots on Master's blog.

At least some of them are a bit entertaining! :lol

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImages/BaseReflectivityLoop/byx+pimage1.gif

That eye just sucks.

[travis2]

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImages/BaseReflectivityLoop/byx+pimage1.gif

That eye just sucks.
well, it's got a few days to get it's act together...

[SpursWoman]

Why would you want it to get it's act together? Don't they get stronger with a cleaner eye?

[travis2]

Why would you want it to get it's act together? Don't they get stronger with a cleaner eye?
I didn't say I wanted it to get its act together...just that it had a few days to do so.

And yeah...if it cleans up it can get stronger...

[Shelly]

Manny

Have you ever read this book? (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1578515599/qid=1127243486/sr=8-1/ref=pd_bbs_1/104-3548160-8403115?v=glance&s=books&n=507846)

They have it at the library. Pretty interesting on how the channel came about.

[Marcus Bryant]

How many bad jokes are we going to be subjected to by media types, friends, neighbors, complete strangers and our dogs since the name of a hurricane is "Rita"?

That alone is worth an extra 0.5 on Rita's hurricane category.

[MannyIsGod]

Hey, thats neat Shelly. I'll have to read that after I finish what I'm reading now. Thanks.

[Vashner]

Would be fun to like rent out an C130 to fly into it and have a party...

:)

[SWC Bonfire]

Models seem to be shifting back east.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200518_model.gif

[Vashner]

I am calling Corpus area to get hit...
I was on the phone with a relative they are going down to put plywood on the Port A vacation home.

[Shelly]

Hey, thats neat Shelly. I'll have to read that after I finish what I'm reading now. Thanks.


:)

I meant to tell you that my youngest is also facinated with TWC.

[MannyIsGod]

Well, the BAMM is shit for this type of storm, but the others are all pretty good models. At the angle it is coming in, the slightest change could move it 100 miles on the coast!

[easjer]

So can the weather gurus tell me something else? If it hits south of Houston, would we be on the dry side or the nasty rain band and tornadoes side? I'm guessing the nasty side, but the last time something hit Palacios, everyone freaked out about flooding and we got sprinkles.




* * * * *

I realize the greatest primary danger is the winds and broken objects, followed afterwards by flooding, contaminated water, etc.

I'm worried about a couple of things if we stay - one, being trapped in Houston, when we have to drive out mid week (next week) for our wedding in New Braunfels that weekend. And being concerned about no power and not being able to eat or drink.

But if we leave, I'm concerned about possible looting and the damage that might occur to our apartment in our absence. We don't have much, and much is replaceable, but it's worrisome.

Of course we'll leave if it's mandatory, but if it's not?

[Extra Stout]

How many bad jokes are we going to be subjected to by media types, friends, neighbors, complete strangers and our dogs since the name of a hurricane is "Rita"?

That alone is worth an extra 0.5 on Rita's hurricane category.

My chief worry is that every single Tex-Mex restaurant in the world will introduce a drink called the "Hurricane 'Rita."

[Vashner]

New Braunfels will be a lot safer than Houston..

But there is a 50% of heavy rain I would guess ...

[easjer]

See if it's just rain bands, well, we're not leaving for that. It'll flood, but we're so dry that once the storm surge subsides, the drainage will happen fairly quickly if we don't take a direct hit.

But I dont' want to fuck around with hurricane force winds and tornadoes scare the shit out of me.

[Johnny_Blaze_47]

Just got word that the A&M/State game may be moved to Thursday evening. Should know more by this time tomorrow.

[Vashner]

Just get out now and don't wait for the lines of stuck traffic...

[2pac]

The east side is the nasty side. Looks like Houston get hit with it.

Hope the Astrodome doesnt flood.

[easjer]

Can't just leave, unfortunately. Don't have the vacation time, and J can't miss that much class. If the university closes, I'll likely still get paid and won't need the vacation time, and he can miss class.

Fuck - we're supposed to go get our marriage license Thursday morning. . . can we get it outside Harris Co if we have to evacuate???

[MannyIsGod]

You don't need to leave tonight. You just need to watch the news carefully over the next few days. The only thing that is going to determine where this storm goes is the movement of the high pressure system right over Houston right now.

Leaving right now is too early. You still have a good amount of time, just pay attention to the news.

[Extra Stout]

Manny --

What do you make of those two patches of low heat potential in the western Gulf? They seem to be directly in Rita's path and would knock her down if she went over either one.

[Shelly]

What's the difference between a thunderstorm and a thundershower? The latest forcast on TWC said thundershowers for Friday.

[Vashner]

Hey 2pac what's the name of the girl in your bouncing banner? hahah
I want to check her "weather" on the internet.

[Marklar MM]

What's the difference between a thunderstorm and a thundershower? The latest forcast on TWC said thundershowers for Friday.


I am guessing a tstorm is thunder/lightning/higher wind, and a tshower is thunder, lighting, rain, but not high wind.

[Marklar MM]

Hey 2pac what's the name of the girl in your bouncing banner? hahah
I want to check her "weather" on the internet.

sexy big boobs

search for that.

[MannyIsGod]

ES,

I think they are likely to not allow her to strengthen into a cat 4 or above, but I really dont' think they'll weaken her. They surface is pretty warm, and as long as the storm is moving at a decent rate that will be enough to sustain her at a cat 3 status.

[Marklar MM]

CNN or something just said they expect it to become Cat. 4 by tomorrow.

[Marklar MM]

Correction, it was MSNBC I think.

[SpursWoman]

000
Wtnt73 Knhc 202048
Spfat3
Hurricane Rita Probabilities Number 13
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Pm Edt Tue Sep 20 2005

Probabilities For Guidance In Hurricane Protection
Planning By Government And Disaster Officials

At 5 Pm Edt...2100z...the Center Of Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 24.0 North...longitude 82.2 West

Chances Of Center Of The Hurricane Passing Within 65 Nautical Miles
Of Listed Locations Through 2pm Edt Fri Sep 23 2005

Location A B C D E Location A B C D E

24.2n 87.0w 45 1 X X 46 New Orleans La X X 3 8 11
24.5n 89.5w 5 24 1 X 30 New Iberia La X X 2 10 12
25.0n 91.5w X 13 8 2 23 Port Arthur Tx X X X 12 12
Muha 230n 824w 99 X X X 99 Galveston Tx X X X 13 13
Muan 219n 850w 4 X X X 4 Freeport Tx X X X 13 13
Mmso 238n 982w X X X 6 6 Port O Connor Tx X X X 12 12
Mmtm 222n 979w X X X 3 3 Corpuschristi Tx X X X 11 11
Mmtx 210n 974w X X X 2 2 Brownsville Tx X X X 11 11
Mmmd 210n 897w X 1 1 1 3 Gulf 29n 85w X X 1 1 2
Marathon Fl 99 X X X 99 Gulf 29n 87w X 3 2 3 8
Key West Fl 99 X X X 99 Gulf 28n 89w X 10 5 2 17
Marco Island Fl 8 X X X 8 Gulf 28n 91w X 3 10 5 18
Panama City Fl X X 1 1 2 Gulf 28n 93w X X 7 10 17
Pensacola Fl X X 1 3 4 Gulf 28n 95w X X 1 14 15
Mobile Al X X 1 5 6 Gulf 27n 96w X X 1 13 14
Gulfport Ms X X 2 6 8 Gulf 25n 96w X X 2 11 13
Buras La X 1 5 6 12

Column Definition Probabilities In Percent
A Is Probability From Now To 2pm Wed
Following Are Additional Probabilities
B From 2pm Wed To 2am Thu
C From 2am Thu To 2pm Thu
D From 2pm Thu To 2pm Fri
E Is Total Probability From Now To 2pm Fri
X Means Less Than One Percent

Forecaster Avila

[MannyIsGod]

Right now, San Antonio has about a 30 percent chance of seeing sustained tropical storm force winds.

[Vashner]

Who that things hauling some ass now...

When are they going to do voluntary evac of Nueces and Aransas co's?

[Horry For 3!]

The water isn't warm enough to support a Cat 4 storm. While not out of the realm of possiblity, the chances of a Rita being a cat 4 storm when it comes ashore with the influence of a trof and the water tempatures are not very high.
Not a Cat 4 no but a Cat 3 is very likely.

[Vashner]

Im calling a cat 4 at landfall.. (We need Rita Vbookie :) )

The sunspot activity will compensate for any water temp problems ...

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Damn this thing is starting to freak me out. My mother can't find a hotel room, she even asked motels in lockhart. Turns out hotels are booked all the way to dallas. My dad can't stay or drive away with her cuz of his job, he has to stay in the city. I hope this fucking hurricane loses power.

[MannyIsGod]

I hope it does too CBF.

Jennifer Broom was just on the news pimping the BAMM model which is HORRIBLE with strong hurricanes. I hate her so damn much.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

When was the last time we've had a hurricane season like this one? Or are they all completely different. I just read how they're almost sure they will run out of storm names soon...I don't remember that ever happening.

[MannyIsGod]

The last time was in the 30s. We had a pretty active season a few years ago, but all of the storms stayed out in the Atlantic. This is easily the worst hurricane season in American history. Katrina alone made sure of that.

[Vashner]

You know you want teh Jennifer pooo

[MannyIsGod]

The last few frames show a great eye. Let the intensification begin.

the most important thing to watch over the next 24 hours is how far north or south she goes. The further south, and of course you increase the chance of a South Texas landfall.

We'll see.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

hey manny whats a good site to check out the latest radar or whatever its called

[MannyIsGod]

Key West Radar (http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&scale=1&delay=15&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&ID=BYX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zo)


Nasa Satellite Site (http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html)

[MannyIsGod]

What happens is when the eye closes off, the 'vacuum' can run without a leak. You the storms fuel the lower preassure which then fuels the storms and you have yourself a hurricane. As long as the ocean stays warm enough to support those storms, the preassure won't rise and the system will function.

[Hook Dem]

I just got an e-mail bulletin from CNN that says Cat#4 by 2 P.M. tomorrow eastern time. It looks like the most likely spot of landfall at the moment is matagorda bay. Still a long way off though.

[MannyIsGod]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_18.gif