ESPN's Real Plus-Minis Is Out. Duncan and Kawhi are 7th and 8th in the League

[T_L_P]

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

Duncan has the highest Defensive RPM on the entire list.

Other placements for Spurs:

Patty Mills #47 (+1.92)
Manu Ginobili #73 (+1.19)
LaMarcus Aldridge #119 (+0.39)
Boris Diaw #120 (+0.36)
Tony Parker #123 (+0.32)
David West #128 (+0.28)
Danny Green #325 (-2.30)

Thoughts? I really didn't think Danny would be that low.

[spursistan]

didn't kawhi top this list last season?.mm ..it is early..he will climb ip

Tim Duncan is just eternal..It is incredible what he is doing at his age..

Correction: Kawhi finished 5th RPM; 6TH DRPM last season..

[Chinook]

We'll see how Green goes from here. His average so far hasn't been good enough.

[John Petrucci]

TD highest ranked center

And #1 in DRPM in front of 2nd place DJ by almost an entire point :wow

[SAGirl]

Kyle Anderson ranked 24th among SF and 178th overall. (-.33)

[MultiTroll]

What is Real Plus - Minus

Pounding the Cocks Michael Ehler attempts to explain:
http://www.poundingtherock.com/2014/4/8/5594238/problem-with-real-plus-minus

along with Kyle Wagner from deadspin:
http://regressing.deadspin.com/just-what-the-hell-is-real-plus-minus-espns-new-nba-s-1560361469

[Nathan89]

Props to Zaza for maintaining impressive numbers with a different team.

[Hoops Czar]

Tony Parker 2014-15 ORPM: 0.18 DPRM: -3.33 RPM:-3.15
Tony Parker 2015-16 ORPM: 2.18 DRPM: -1.86 RPM: 0.32

:toast Most improved Spur

Danny Green 2014-15: ORPM: 3.25 DRPM: 2.16 RPM: 5.41
Danny Green 2015-16:ORPM: -2.64 DRPM: 0.34 RPM: -2.30

Spurs can't win a 'ship with Green putting up numbers like this. You'd expect those kind of numbers from a role player coming off the bench, not from supposedly one of, if not, the best all around shooting guard in the league. I'll refrain from posting Butler's numbers in comparison to Green's because "he's fool's gold and a playoff proven choker."

[Nathan89]

Why the hell is Draymond in the sf category?

[SpursFan86]

Confused about Manu's rating...team has performed infinitely better with him on the court vs. off

[KL2]

The DRPM needs working on, for some reason it's not as accurate as the ORPM, at least it doesn't seem so. Leonard's obviously been the best defender on this roster by far, but not only is he way behind TD, he's 60th in the NBA overall.

[Nathan89]

Tony Parker #123 (+0.32)

:wow

[SAGirl]

Confused about Manu's rating...team has performed infinitely better with him on the court vs. off
I'd hate to criticize Manu on anything, but since you asked, he's not been good in transition D. His defense is not what it used to be, and he's been caught ball-watching and out of position at times too. He is still very capable of fantastic defensive plays though, which is why these things don't stand out as much, but his consistency is not there at this point.

We can't expect more form him though. The man is 38 and he already expends an incredible amount of energy with his style of play and has been instrumental bringing the team back from deficits early in the season.

[Kawhitstorm]

The DRPM needs working on, for some reason it's not as accurate as the ORPM, at least it doesn't seem so. Leonard's obviously been the best defender on this roster by far, but not only is he way behind TD, he's 60th in the NBA overall.

DRPM is flawed & shouldn't be used for comparing players on different teams. Mediocre defenders can be hidden on elite defensive teams (usually PFs that play along side defensive centers) & their rating won't suffer unless their backup is a defensive stud while players that play w/ shitty defenders will have inflated DRPMs (usually shot blockers).

Cancerneli isn't on the roster & Butler/Kyle have been pretty good defensively so there isn't as much drop off as last season when Kawhi is off the floor. Ron Artest is ranked higher than Kawhi b/c he backups Kobe/Randle.:lol

[Kawhitstorm]

Confused about Manu's rating...team has performed infinitely better with him on the court vs. off

The team has been coughing up leads in the 4th quarter w/ the bench unit by getting pounded on the offensive boards/committing turnovers. The team has performed infinitely better on OFFENSE w/ him on the floor b/c Danny has been atrocious to start the season.:lol

[HarlemHeat37]

Sample size makes the numbers largely meaningless, tbh..end of December should see more accuracy..

[HarlemHeat37]

RAPM is better than RPM, tbh, anyways..

Manu ranks 4th in the NBA in NPI-RAPM and PI-RAPM, and Kawhi ranks 5th in the NBA in PI-RAPM..

[Raven]

danny will be fine. Advanced metrics are meaningful only after a bigger sample.

[T_L_P]

The DRPM needs working on, for some reason it's not as accurate as the ORPM, at least it doesn't seem so. Leonard's obviously been the best defender on this roster by far, but not only is he way behind TD, he's 60th in the NBA overall.

Meh. Say it's Kawhi if you want, but in these first dozen or so games at least, you can't say it's him by far. Even in the changing NBA elite defensive bigs provide more value than wings.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

lol Ty Lawson



Ty Lawson (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/4000/ty-lawson)



-3.91
-1.68
-5.59

[SanDiegoSpursFan]

You would think Timmy is too slow to be an elite defender anymore, and he does look too slow on some possessions, but I guess slow Timmy is still a better defender than 95% of the NBA.

[Russ]

Kobe Bryant is #381 out of 409 players.

Whattaya bet Bryant makes the All Star team and Leonard doesn't?

Then Bryant complains about his numerical ranking by ESPN (again).

Then he hires a film crew to follow him around at All Star Weekend . . .

(You probably think I'm kidding about the last one. But I'm not.)

[Neurosis]

I actually don't think Kawhi is as dominant defensively this year either. As good as he is on offense, I think I'd like to see us get more Aldridge involved and have Kawhi more engaged on defense again.

Having Aldridge as go-to guy is fine, with Kawhi as second option. Come playoff time we're going to need Alrdidge to perform offensively and Kawhi to lock people down. I'd prefer to see Aldridge up at 20+ppg with a higher usage rate and Kawhi somewhere around 15-18 on efficient shooting. With how good he's become you can always go to him whenever you need - I think the real problem is getting Aldridge's confidence and stroke to elite level again.

[lilbthebasedgod]

Tim blowing out second place DRPM

2015-16 Real Plus-Minus


RK
NAME
TEAM
GP
MPG
ORPM (http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM)
DRPM (http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM)
RPM (http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM)
WAR (http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm)


1
Tim Duncan (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/215/tim-duncan), C
SA
14
27.6
0.11
4.83
4.94
1.81


2
DeAndre Jordan (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3442/deandre-jordan), C
LAC
13
33.0
0.09
3.90
3.99
1.77


3
Andre Drummond (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/6585/andre-drummond), C
DET
14
35.8
-0.14
3.89
3.75
2.12

[Kawhitstorm]

lol Ty Lawson



Ty Lawson (http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/4000/ty-lawson)



-3.91
-1.68
-5.59





Bad year for North Carolina basketball:lol

[cjw]

Arbitrary cutoff, but Bosh, Horford, Milsap (above 2 in both), Draymond and Kawhi are only guys above 1.5 in both. Lebron not very far behind. Only other guys with him above 1 in both are Lowry, Love, Marvin Williams (!), Butler and Demarcus. And almost Dirk somehow.

From what I remember, it's much harder for guards to rank high on D.

[YGWHI]

I actually don't think Kawhi is as dominant defensively this year either. As good as he is on offense, I think I'd like to see us get more Aldridge involved and have Kawhi more engaged on defense again.

"Again"...Obviously he's not dominant defensively this year.

667332441644797956

669301292406341632

[Fireball]

Kawhi is a beast and Tim is ... Tim. Regardless of the small sample size, a 39 year old center should not be up there unless he is GOAT ...

[Neurosis]

Read: as dominant.

He's still dominant but not as dominant. He's guarding his own assignment but last year he was guarding an entire side of the floor at times and disrupting 3+ opposing players all at once on numerous plays.

He still is doing that but not as often. He's young and athletic but he still has finite energy. His increased offensive load naturally affects his D. I'd like to see LMA take the extra offensive burden so Kawhi can be getting upwards of 7DRPM again this year.

Primarily because LMA is most potent on offense and Kawhi on D. It makes sense to play them both to their strengths and I think the team would be better for it.

[Chinook]

Kawhi is gambling a lot more on defense than he used to, and teams are capitalizing on it. Like with Green, if Leonard has one guy he's supposed to check, he can do it very well. But if people don't think he's lost some focus as well so far, they don't know what they've been watching. Or maybe his centerfielding is more helpful to the team defense than preventing his own guy from scoring. It's not cut and dried.

[kaji157]

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM

Duncan has the highest Defensive RPM on the entire list.

Other placements for Spurs:

Patty Mills #47 (+1.92)
Manu Ginobili #73 (+1.19)
LaMarcus Aldridge #119 (+0.39)
Boris Diaw #120 (+0.36)
Tony Parker #123 (+0.32)
David West #128 (+0.28)
Danny Green #325 (-2.30)

Thoughts? I really didn't think Danny would be that low.

Whatever Stat that attributes more wins to Patty than Manu its simply wrong.

[SAGirl]

Kawhi is gambling a lot more on defense than he used to, and teams are capitalizing on it. Like with Green, if Leonard has one guy he's supposed to check, he can do it very well. But if people don't think he's lost some focus as well so far, they don't know what they've been watching. Or maybe his centerfielding is more helpful to the team defense than preventing his own guy from scoring. It's not cut and dried.
Pop was really upset with guys getting hit with backcuts in the nets game. Kawhi was not the worst offender, but he got hit with a backcut too, and having already benched Kyle and Danny I believe, Pop gave the speech to Kawhi too.

I noticed his gambling the most in the Pelicans game, particularly because his gambles didn't pay off in that game and Holiday capitalized on them passing to the open guy. Its the one game I remember that it was very noticeable. The fact we were losing for most of the game, LMA got the ankle tweaked, Timmy wasn't having a good game and was spared bc they had a game the day after, and frankly Diaw and others sucked and were not exerting the required level of effort defensively may have prompted Kawhi in a bit of a desperation. He also wasn't guarding a star SF so he might have felt he could get away with it. The team as a whole played badly in that game, so I can't blame him specifically.

What has been more noticeable to me is that he is getting screened rather easily. It was a factor in the Wiz game.

[YGWHI]

Primarily because LMA is most potent on offense and Kawhi on D. It makes sense to play them both to their strengths and I think the team would be better for it.

LMA will be more involve on offense in the next months, there's no doubt about that...but Kawhi's still an elite two-way player now, not only a great defender.
Pop said he wants Kawhi to be aggressive on the offensive end, and the Spurs need it as well.

[dabom]

KAwhi and Tim taking over. :lol

[Neurosis]

Kawhi is gambling a lot more on defense than he used to, and teams are capitalizing on it. Like with Green, if Leonard has one guy he's supposed to check, he can do it very well. But if people don't think he's lost some focus as well so far, they don't know what they've been watching. Or maybe his centerfielding is more helpful to the team defense than preventing his own guy from scoring. It's not cut and dried.

Exactly this.

The kind of defense he played last year was unbelievable and it was a different style to how he's now playing. He's making up for it on the offensive end (still overall top10 league) but we'll see what happens come playoff time.

My only concern is that LMA not clicking isn't because he's new, it's actually a direct result of him not being included in the offense enough.

[cjw]

My only concern is that LMA not clicking isn't because he's new, it's actually a direct result of him not being included in the offense enough.

The offense is hard enough to master for a guy who isn't a major component of it, so it's going to take time for a guy who's been conditioned to play a certain way like he did in Portland. Mixing in some ISO with the motion offense, plus letting him crash the offensive glass (something the Spurs never do, but will be imperative against the Warriors) should get him going. Hopefully as his midrange game starts clicking, he'll be able to get back to the 3pt attempts he was taking last year of 1.5 per game.

[DPG21920]

Kawhi is gambling a lot more on defense than he used to, and teams are capitalizing on it. Like with Green, if Leonard has one guy he's supposed to check, he can do it very well. But if people don't think he's lost some focus as well so far, they don't know what they've been watching. Or maybe his centerfielding is more helpful to the team defense than preventing his own guy from scoring. It's not cut and dried.

He's still elite there, despite that (especially considering the offensive load he's carrying too). I do think it's by design. I can't imagine, with how much Chad/Pop, etc.. work with him that he would go THAT rogue. With Tim in his new position (where he's guarding guys) and LMA's ability I absolutely think they are encouraging that behavior.

Then as you said, 1v1 it's over.

[dabom]

Spurs have the second best defense. Kawhi isn't slacking.

[tholdren]

Lol real or fake plus minus

[midnightpulp]

The DRPM needs working on, for some reason it's not as accurate as the ORPM, at least it doesn't seem so. Leonard's obviously been the best defender on this roster by far, but not only is he way behind TD, he's 60th in the NBA overall.

Bigs are just naturally more impactful defenders. A wing can only defend one player at a time, while a great defensive big can shut down an entire offense.

TD's on/off numbers were just insane during his prime.


What pops up however is that up to 2007-08 season, Duncan’s presence on the court pretty much guaranteed a double digit lead on opponents. Jesse Blanchard did a good job of explaining this during the faithful Daily Dime chat when he stated: “Kobe Bryant has been known to shut down his opponent whereas Tim Duncan was known to shut down entire offenses by himself”

http://www.warriorsworld.net/2011/02/20/kobe-duncan-debate-close/

[KL2]

Bigs are just naturally more impactful defenders. A wing can only defend one player at a time, while a great defensive big can shut down an entire offense.

TD's on/off numbers were just insane during his prime.


Leonard's drpm was at like 4+ last year, he's been gambling more on defense but his 1v1 defense is much better than last year so I don't think he dropped off that much if at all. Cousins finished 4th last year in drpm, it's a hit or miss stat I guess.

[apalisoc_9]

Kawhi is gambling a lot more on defense than he used to, and teams are capitalizing on it. Like with Green, if Leonard has one guy he's supposed to check, he can do it very well. But if people don't think he's lost some focus as well so far, they don't know what they've been watching. Or maybe his centerfielding is more helpful to the team defense than preventing his own guy from scoring. It's not cut and dried.

Its by design. Are you ever going to realize this or are you going to conitue igonoring an obvious stratgegical point?

[midnightpulp]

Leonard's drpm was at like 4+ last year, he's been gambling more on defense but his 1v1 defense is much better than last year so I don't think he dropped off that much if at all. Cousins finished 4th last year in drpm, it's a hit or miss stat I guess.

Don't get me wrong, I think Leonard is a generational talent on defense, which is why I've long been an advocate of him carrying less of an offensive load so he can devote more energy to defense/rebounding (I think his load is sustainable at his current usage. Don't like all the minutes, though), but the best perimeter defender of all-time is probably only as a good as the 30th best big of all-time. Like I said, a wing can only bother one player. A big patrolling the paint can bother the entire opposing team, taking penetration away, the low-post away, controlling the boards, etc.

[Mr Bones]

Don't get me wrong, I think Leonard is a generational talent on defense, which is why I've long been an advocate of him carrying less of an offensive load so he can devote more energy to defense/rebounding (I think his load is sustainable at his current usage. Don't like all the minutes, though), but the best perimeter defender of all-time is probably only as a good as the 30th best big of all-time. Like I said, a wing can only bother one player. A big patrolling the paint can bother the entire opposing team, taking penetration away, the low-post away, controlling the boards, etc.

Yeah, it's interesting that the DRPM generally rises through each position, with the PG usually being the lowest and each position-- SG, SF, PF, & C-- getting increasingly higher. I think this is why many strategists think that D at the PG is vastly overrated...

[Chinook]

Its by design. Are you ever going to realize this or are you going to conitue igonoring an obvious stratgegical point?

It's not all by design. Pop doesn't tell Kawhi to get 15 feet from his man like he did repeatedly against Dallas. On the double-hammer play, Kawhi was just out of position. Kawhi gave up the transition three because he wanted to double the paint instead.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

It's not all by design. Pop doesn't tell Kawhi to get 15 feet from his man like he did repeatedly against Dallas. On the double-hammer play, Kawhi was just out of position. Kawhi gave up the transition three because he wanted to double the paint instead.

Pointless to explain - they don't watch the games, they'll check the box score and come with Kawhi-destroyed-another-dude takes.

[Raven]

Yeah, it's interesting that the DRPM generally rises through each position, with the PG usually being the lowest and each position-- SG, SF, PF, & C-- getting increasingly higher. I think this is why many strategists think that D at the PG is vastly overrated...

it just means that the stat is not as pure and perfect as, say normal +-.

[rasuo214]

It's not all by design. Pop doesn't tell Kawhi to get 15 feet from his man like he did repeatedly against Dallas. On the double-hammer play, Kawhi was just out of position. Kawhi gave up the transition three because he wanted to double the paint instead.

He was trying to prevent a transition layup. Kawhi was the only one in position to help Manu who wouldn't have stopped Felton on his own. Not sure why you would consider that a bad defensive play. Rewatch it. Kawhi did what you're supposed to do in transition defense (stop the easy shot even if it means allowing an open jump shot).

[tholdren]

Lol at the turn thus thread has made, stats are nothing without they eye test, aka context

[YGWHI]

Pointless to explain - they don't watch the games, they'll check the box score and come with Kawhi-destroyed-another-dude takes.

Well, Kawhi's defense had a lot to do with that boxscore. He made Matthews work hard for the ball and buckets, Kawhi didn't allow him to establish any sort of rhythm, especially in the first half...Sadly, Kawhi's off ball defense often gets overlooked by fans here.

[apalisoc_9]

It's not all by design. Pop doesn't tell Kawhi to get 15 feet from his man like he did repeatedly against Dallas. On the double-hammer play, Kawhi was just out of position. Kawhi gave up the transition three because he wanted to double the paint instead.

Ha? Basketball 101 tells you to watch the easy drive . Manu was way out of position to have a chance.

[Mr Bones]

it just means that the stat is not as pure and perfect as, say normal +-.

Not necessarily... I think it's fair to say that a great 6'7" defender is more disruptive than a great 6'2" defender.... Especially in today's nba where switching on D is more common...

[Raven]

Not necessarily... I think it's fair to say that a great 6'7" defender is more disruptive than a great 6'2" defender.... Especially in today's nba where switching on D is more common...

Nah, it just means that the stat is not adjusted properly.

[YGWHI]

Kawhi can be guilty of gambling a few times but who can blame him with those hands and his instincts...

About leaving his man, he has not been caught overhelping a lot this season.


He was trying to prevent a transition layup. Kawhi was the only one in position to help Manu who wouldn't have stopped Felton on his own. Not sure why you would consider that a bad defensive play. Rewatch it. Kawhi did what you're supposed to do in transition defense (stop the easy shot even if it means allowing an open jump shot).
Good observation. :tu

[KL2]

Don't get me wrong, I think Leonard is a generational talent on defense, which is why I've long been an advocate of him carrying less of an offensive load so he can devote more energy to defense/rebounding (I think his load is sustainable at his current usage. Don't like all the minutes, though), but the best perimeter defender of all-time is probably only as a good as the 30th best big of all-time. Like I said, a wing can only bother one player. A big patrolling the paint can bother the entire opposing team, taking penetration away, the low-post away, controlling the boards, etc.

I'm talking about the DRPM stat though, Leonard had a big man like effect on his defense last year with a DRPM of 4.59, but this year his rating of 1.6 or whatever it is pales in comparison. I know he wasn't holding opposing SF's to 12ppg on 35% shooting last year like he is this year, and even if he were giving away more points gambling the rating shouldn't drop off so significantly. DRPM also doesn't take a player's defensive role into account, who they're guarding, it's blind in that regard.

Also somewhat related, Cousins ranked 4th overall in DRPM last year above of even Duncan, according to the stats on paper he's an elite defensive player, possibly even best in the league which I never would've guessed watching the Spurs play his teams. I've seen Leonard consistently give Cousins hell whether it's on rebounds or he's penetrating against him, Leonard seems to get the better of him when matched against him.

You'd think their defense would be way better with Cauley-Stein & Cousins in the paint, I don't know when the last time they were an elite defensive squad.

[HarlemHeat37]

The impact of individual ORAPM and DRAPM has been discussed for years, and most knowledgeable people believe the numbers for the individual facets are mostly irrelevant, tbh..the total RAPM/RPM number is the important attribute, while the individual O and D numbers have too much noise and need more context..

Separating the numbers is pointless and meaningless..

[tholdren]

Not necessarily... I think it's fair to say that a great 6'7" defender is more disruptive than a great 6'2" defender.... Especially in today's nba where switching on D is more common...

Never able to be proven.

[Mr Bones]

Not necessarily... I think it's fair to say that a great 6'7" defender is more disruptive than a great 6'2" defender.... Especially in today's nba where switching on D is more common...


Never able to be proven.


But don't you think a guy like Kawhi, switching from a PG to a PF is going to have a better chance defensively than someone like Ricky Rubio, George Hill, or Kyle Lowry?

[Mr Bones]

Dean Oliver-- the guy who invented the original version of DRtg-- has himself said that it is the stat most easily influenced by the teammates around the individual player...