Diagnosing Danny Green?

[midnightpulp]

November struggles? Or troubling?

He ranks 52nd among SGs in RPM (maybe Harlem can provide his RAPM), his shooting percentage has plummeted in every category, and his raw box score -/+ (admittedly not a great stat) is down from 5.0 to -0.7. Defensive rating is up 2 points, though.

Obviously, some of his decline right now has to do with adjusting to LMA's presence and Kawhi's new role, but everyone else on the team seems to have adjusted fine, and are even seeing gains in their numbers across the board. Sub Manu in for Danny, and the lineup is 33 points better in ORTG and 2 points better in DRTG.

http://stats.nba.com/league/lineups/#!/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=1

Granted, that lineup has only played 33 minutes together compared to the 201 minutes the starting lineup has played together, but it does make sense that having a additional playmaker and penetrator in Manu on the floor would boost the offense (the gain in DRTG is just noise, I'm sure).

Hopefully it's just a muscle memory/psychological thing of not getting the ball in his usual spots, and once he adjusts, he'll start hitting at his normal rate (be interesting to see his uncontested shot shooting percentage).

[ducks]

He is not getting the corner threes he got last year
His three point shooting now is back on track last 7 or so games

[sasaint]

Without looking at any analytics, Patty has had his troubles, too. But both played well tonight against Atlanta (as the whole team did). I think Pop the Mad Scientist, has been coaching both of them to put the ball on the floor,more, and that has disrupted both of their normal games. I expect both players to revert to form once the experimentation phase is over.

[SAGirl]

Danny to me, this year had a different role.

All speculation here, but going into this season, we assume Manu is playing less, and Danny has to close out some games, maybe close games. So Pop has given him license to improvise more and make plays for teammates. One thing of closing out games is that defenses improve, tighten up, and will play him close. If he's effectively useless in those kinds of situations you need another answer post Manu.

The Green experiment so far has not gone well, opening minutes up for even Patty/Tony lineups a whole lot.

He hasn't gotten better, but worse. At times not knowing when to pass up a shot, and when to make a play for someone else, or drive. This kind of hesitation affected his shooting stroke since it takes him out of his rhythm having to evaluate the situation instead of just letting it fly. It happened to Lamarcus, specially early as well.

So now, Danny is shooting better getting out of his slump, but his game still doesn't look whole because of his questionable decision making.

Driving is just not Danny's strength. In the future, we may see a guy like Simmons or Anderson take his place to close out games. You need someone who will make the right decisions and can get their own shot in a pinch if they end up with ball as the shot clock is winding down in a close game.

It's not the end for Danny, he's probably just reached the limits of his talent, and maybe scaling back his role will improve his game.

By the way, before anyone bashes me. I am not a Danny hater or anything like that, nor am I trying to promote any kind of agenda. I really believe if Danny's role is limited he will shine again in his role.

[Mugen]

Kobe's been so absolutely atrocious that Mid has nothing to do downstairs tbh :lol

[apalisoc_9]

- Aldridge post ups result in shitty Green Looks
- Passing up semi open shots to dribble
-Trying to create baskets from the dribble
-Should try to play minimal amount of minutes with Aldridge.

My concern about him regressing if he tries too much was correct. Chinook was getting al angsty about it but you can see that he cant play a bigger role because it kills his game. Someone gotta tell him to throw it to leonard or Parker when he has the ball and its not open.

Dont pass it to Aldridge because he gets shitty looks from Aldridge post ups.

[Nathan89]

Kobe's been so absolutely atrocious that Mid has nothing to do downstairs tbh :lol

Mid's great takes on Kobe have come to an end.:depressed

[Robz4000]

He'll be fine in due time. No one's game is struggling to adjust to the new offense like his. Once he gets used to getting his looks on different spots he'll be set. Thankfully his D is still elite.

[Nathan89]

One thing should be noted it's not the quality of the shot that is hurting Green's percentages.

On threes 6+ ft wide open he is taking 2.3 per game at 35.1%, last year 2.3 per game at 52.5%.
On threes 4-6 ft wide open he is taking 2.1 per game at 21.2%, last year 2.3 per game at 36.7%.
On threes 2-4 ft open he is taking .7 per game at 54.5%, last year .9 per game at 31%.

[HI-FI]

Kobe's been so absolutely atrocious that Mid has nothing to do downstairs tbh :lol
:lol

[sasaint]

One thing should be noted it's not the quality of the shot that is hurting Green's percentages.

On threes 6+ ft wide open he is taking 2.3 per game at 35.1%, last year 2.3 per game at 52.5%.
On threes 4-6 ft wide open he is taking 2.1 per game at 21.2%, last year 2.3 per game at 36.7%.
On threes 2-4 ft open he is taking .7 per game at 54.5%, last year .9 per game at 31%.

Super post! What would kind of complete this chart would be a look at 2-point attempts. What is implicit here is that he is taking quite a few more total shots this year, which I would not have guessed.

[SpursforSix]

Parker Effect

[SouthernFried]

The 2 guard position is a serious weakness for the Spurs...offensively. Danny's D is still very good.

Luckily, I think we have enough offense to get by without a lot of production from the 2 spot, offensively. It's a super important position Defensively, and Danny still is the person you want there for that role. He needs to stay a 3 & D player, nothing more. That's what he's good at and since you can't leave him open for 3's...he also spreads the floor on the offensive end. I hope the experimenting with Danny comes to an end soon :)

[HarlemHeat37]

Nothing to really analyze, tbh..his 3-point shooting has positively regressed, he's just suffering more than anybody else from the lack of offensive structure, as he is a limited ball-handler that isn't meant to be driving as much as he has been, lately..

Hopefully Aldridge eventually rounds into All-Star form, since his current level of play isn't worth what it has done to Green's game, tbh..

[HarlemHeat37]

The 2 guard position is a serious weakness for the Spurs...offensively. Danny's D is still very good.

Luckily, I think we have enough offense to get by without a lot of production from the 2 spot, offensively. It's a super important position Defensively, and Danny still is the person you want there for that role. He needs to stay a 3 & D player, nothing more. That's what he's good at and since you can't leave him open for 3's...he also spreads the floor on the offensive end. I hope the experimenting with Danny comes to an end soon :)

Manu has probably been the Spurs 2nd best player, this year, tbh..

[SouthernFried]

Manu has probably been the Spurs 2nd best player, this year, tbh..

Yeah. I was thinking of starting lineup...but, you are correct. Manu looks really good this year...Knock-on-wood.

[BackHome]

I am hoping that Simmons can come along faster and be able to give us another ball handling SG

[Mel_13]

Danny made Korver disappear last night and he's shooting 39.6% from beyond the arc in the last 10 games after shooting 22% in the first 7 games. Danny putting the ball on the floor is ugly, but the 3 and D are fine.

[ceperez]

Spurs Fan should have the same expectation with Danny Green as they had for Bruce Bowen.

Any 3 point shot by Bowen was just gravy.

[DarrinS]

Dude needs to focus on defense and hitting occasional 3's.


That missed dunk last night -- smh

[DarrinS]

Spurs Fan should have the same expectation with Danny Green as they had for Bruce Bowen.

Any 3 point shot by Bowen was just gravy.

Very similar players, tbh. Bruce dribble drives were cringe-worthy

[Raven]

Hes not setting up properly for his shots. Thats all there is.

[Agloco]

Spurs Fan should have the same expectation with Danny Green as they had for Bruce Bowen.

Any 3 point shot by Bowen was just gravy.


Very similar players, tbh. Bruce dribble drives were cringe-worthy

Pretty much this. Green has been taking a lot more 2's, and those usually come off some broken play.

[outmap]

Green, Mills and LMA are/will be fine. I'm more worried about 2 things; 1. The back-up center - West and Diaw are really good, but they both play the 4, and Boban is still a project. 2. A defensive point guard - TP and Patty are outstanding offensively but they have a hard time playing defense, and Ray hasn't really impressed me either given his limited time.

Hopefully; 1. Boban fast tracks his adjustment and 2. I liked how Pop played Simmons at the point in the 4th qtr. He has potential to be a big, defensive PG.

[ginobilized]

I really wonder if the new contract has messed with Danny's head a bit. I've seen it happen before. Remember Malik Rose went from decent role player to a guy that thought he should shoot after getting paid.....that didn't work.
My guess is that DG will adjust and return to the mean shooting wise. He's always been streaky.

[ChumpDumper]

- Aldridge post ups result in shitty Green Looks
- Passing up semi open shots to dribble
-Trying to create baskets from the dribble
-Should try to play minimal amount of minutes with Aldridge.

My concern about him regressing if he tries too much was correct. Chinook was getting al angsty about it but you can see that he cant play a bigger role because it kills his game. Someone gotta tell him to throw it to leonard or Parker when he has the ball and its not open.

Dont pass it to Aldridge because he gets shitty looks from Aldridge post ups.Vanilla player hater post.

[Mr Bones]

With Kawhi shooting more and LMA taking more shots than Splitter used to, it's not too surprising that Danny's role on offense is shrinking a little. One good sign is his 3PT% has been back to normal for the past 10 games @ 21-48 for 43.75%...

[ajh18]

Spurs Fan should have the same expectation with Danny Green as they had for Bruce Bowen.

Any 3 point shot by Bowen was just gravy.

They are pretty close. Danny traditionally accounts for a bit more of the Spurs offense (some back of the napkin calculations), but not by much. Last year he definitely played the biggest role offensively, making up over 10% of the Spurs's points.

Bruce Bowen % of Team Points:
2003-2004: 7.5%
2004-2005: 8.5%
2005-2006: 7.8%
2006-2007: 6.3%

Danny Green % of Team Points:
2011-2012: 8.8%
2012-2013: 10.2%
2013-2014: 8.6%
2014-2015: 11.3%

[timtonymanu]

Danny made Korver disappear last night and he's shooting 39.6% from beyond the arc in the last 10 games after shooting 22% in the first 7 games. Danny putting the ball on the floor is ugly, but the 3 and D are fine.

:tu

[Proxy]

Regardless if he's shooting well or not, he won't be left open. He'll pull whatever defender out to the perimeter with him, and the defensive pairing with Kawhi on the opposite end makes up for the offensive inconsistencies that have more to do with the rest of the starting 5 than him (imo). Especially with TP being a defensive liability against the PG-loaded WC.

Hate seeing him dribble and attempt to play outside his ability though. And those plays look so shitty that I think it's easy to magnify them over the good that he brings to the table.

[RayTdropout]

He sucks. He got paid and does care about basketball anymore

[ceperez]

They are pretty close. Danny traditionally accounts for a bit more of the Spurs offense (some back of the napkin calculations), but not by much. Last year he definitely played the biggest role offensively, making up over 10% of the Spurs's points.

Bruce Bowen % of Team Points:
2003-2004: 7.5%
2004-2005: 8.5%
2005-2006: 7.8%
2006-2007: 6.3%

Danny Green % of Team Points:
2011-2012: 8.8%
2012-2013: 10.2%
2013-2014: 8.6%
2014-2015: 11.3%

When Bowen was around, nobody had any expectation that he would contribute to offense. We were more than thrilled that he would make those 3's. I think the same kind of expectation is fair for Green. Green isn't going to force a shot if he's covered. This could be a good thing or a bad thing depending on the situation.