PDA

View Full Version : Congressional Budget news



boutons_deux
12-03-2015, 02:53 PM
“Tax Extenders” Bill Swells Massively Under Lobbyist Onslaught (https://theintercept.com/2015/12/03/tax-extenders-bill-swells-massively-under-lobbyist-onslaught/)


A blockbuster tax cut deal, with a 10-year cost of $889 billion and counting, is deep into negotiations on Capitol Hill, proving that Congress doesn’t care about the deficit as long as the right groups get the giveaways.

Virtually every year, Congress packages a series of over 50 tax breaks — a mix of gifts to businesses, commuters, homeowners, Puerto Rican rum manufacturers, thoroughbred horse owners, etc. — and extends them for a short period.

For lobbyists, what is known in Washington as the “tax extenders” bill is like Christmas and a birthday wrapped into one. A 2013 report (http://www.americansfortaxfairness.org/report-on-lobbying-on-tax-extenders/) from Americans for Tax Fairness and Public Campaign found that 373 businesses and trade groups hired nearly 1,400 lobbyists to push for tax extenders over a three-year period.

A House rule has made the bill even more enticing than ever. That’s because new federal spending must be “offset” by corresponding cuts or revenue raisers — but new tax cuts don’t.

the challenge is not finding the money, it’s making sure there are enough goodies in the bill that gratify enough members of Congress that it can pass.

The details are fluid and still under negotiation, and the whole thing could still fall apart. But the final bill could cost as much as $889 billion over 10 years, with over 70 percent of that going to business tax breaks.

The bill would extend most of the traditional 50-odd tax breaks for a year, at a 10-year cost of around $45 billion. But it would also make six corporate tax breaks permanent, costing a whopping $667 billion (http://www.americansfortaxfairness.org/files/Cost-of-2015-Tax-Extenders-Passed-by-House-and-WM-Cttee-9-15-15.pdf).

The biggest non-corporate measure would extend the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit, key anti-poverty tax breaks for the working poor whose expanded benefits would otherwise expire in 2017. That adds another $150 billion (http://ctj.org/ctjreports/2015/02/making_the_eitc_and_ctc_expansions_permanent_would _benefit_13_million_working_families.php#.Vl8reFaF spE) in cost.

House Speaker Paul Ryan reportedly wants to erect hurdles (http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ryan-pelosi-budget-shutdown-congress-216335) for families trying to claim the Child Tax Credit that would limit its legal use for immigrant families. Corporations will not have to jump through any similar hoops.

Republicans in Congress are proving they believe in the famous dictum uttered by Dick Cheney (http://www.thenation.com/article/gotta-sequester-or-was-cheney-right-deficits-dont-matter/): “Reagan proved that deficits don’t matter.” The GOP’s lack of concern for deficits — as long as donors and friends get the spoils — has a long history.

https://theintercept.com/2015/12/03/tax-extenders-bill-swells-massively-under-lobbyist-onslaught/

boutons_deux
01-27-2016, 02:27 PM
Murdoch toilet paper:

Wall Street Journal Warns Of Increasing The Deficit While Praising GOP's Budget-Busting Tax Plans

The Wall Street Journal lambasted President Obama over a slight projected increase of the federal budget deficit in 2016 while praising budget-busting Republican tax plans that The Journal falsely claimed "would spur [economic] growth" enough to make up for revenue shortfalls.

On January 25, The Wall Street Journal used newly released figures from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to falsely claim (http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-deficit-rises-again-1453768153) the federal deficit was "climbing rapidly again" in President Obama's final year in office and to warn that future deficits would "take[] off" after the conclusion of his presidency. The Journal highlighted that the annual federal deficit is projected to increase from 2.5 percent of GDP in 2015 to 2.9 percent of GDP in 2016, blaming most of this growth on increased outlays to entitlement programs.

While The Journal blamed President Obama for creating a "fiscal time bomb" for his successor, the paper praised Republican tax plans claiming "the various tax reform plans that Republicans are offering would spur growth" (emphasis added):

Perhaps you've heard President Obama's talking point that the federal budget deficit has fallen by two-thirds on his watch. That overlooks that the deficit first soared on his watch, and then fell thanks largely to the GOP House and modest economic recovery, and that as he leaves office he is going to need one more asterisk: The deficit in 2016 has begun to rise again, in dollars and as a share of the economy. And after he leaves office, it takes off.
[...]

As ever, the big spending drivers will be entitlements, which are projected to rise to 15% of the economy from the current 13.1% over 10 years. This is the fiscal time bomb that Mr. Obama will leave his successor, thank you very much.
[...]

We realize such unhappy realities are not supposed to intrude on a presidential campaign, and the American public long ago dropped spending and deficits as major concerns. Voters care more about the economy and terrorism, and there's good sense to that. The deficit will never vanish without faster economic growth, and the various tax reform plans that Republicans are offering would spur growth. By all means let's debate growth.


The Journal's core claim, that "the deficit will never vanish without faster economic growth" is debatable (http://mediamatters.org/research/2015/06/17/media-uncritically-report-jeb-bushs-nonsense-ec/204031), but its decision to endorse "the various tax reform plans that Republicans are offering" as a solution for both economic growth and deficit reduction is absurd.

According to this GOP-friendly analysis, Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's proposals would reduce expected economic growth and job creation over the next decade but also reduce deficit-accumulation by $191 billion to $498 billion. At the same time, according to the Tax Foundation, GOP candidates would oversee stronger economies while vastly accelerating the growth of the federal deficit. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's tax plan could add as much as $12 trillion to the national debt on top of expected accumulation, while Sen. Rand Paul's (R-KY) plan only ends up reducing the deficit in a "dynamic revenue estimate" that Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has repeatedly derided (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/13/selective-voodoo/) as "voodoo economics (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/06/opinion/paul-krugman-voodoo-economics-the-next-generation.html)."

Furthermore, The Journal's claim that faster economic growth resulting from tax cuts is what is needed to reduce the federal deficit is not backed up by sound economic research. On August 25, 2015, Republican-appointed CBO Director Keith Hall said (http://thehill.com/policy/finance/251946-gop-appointee-tax-cuts-do-not-pay-for-themselves) "tax cuts do not pay for themselves," and a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report withdrawn by GOP senators (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/02/business/questions-raised-on-withdrawal-of-congressional-research-services-report-on-tax-rates.html) found that lower top income tax rates did not correlate with higher economic growth but did find it (http://graphics8.nytimes.com/news/business/0915taxesandeconomy.pdf#page=19) "associated with greater income disparities."

When economists created a model for creating a top tax rate that would be an "effective tool for social insurance," they found raising rates on the top 1 percent of earners to 90 percent (http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/~dkrueger/research/top1.pdf) would be appropriate.

Right-wing media outlets repeatedly (http://mediamatters.org/research/2015/10/19/new-data-debunks-years-of-fox-news-paranoia-abo/206262) stoke fears of the federal deficit growing too large. Fox News and other right-wing media outlets are notorious for hyping the federal deficit (http://mediamatters.org/research/2016/01/27/study-prime-time-cable-and-broadcast-evening-ne/208171) and The Journal's editorial feeds into this narrative.

http://mediamatters.org/blog/2016/01/27/wall-street-journal-warns-of-increasing-the-def/208208

totally, repeatedly disproven voodoo economics, trickle down bullshit are all the WSJ, VRWC, Repugs have to offer.

boutons_deux
01-27-2016, 02:36 PM
Rising red ink poses challenges for GOP

Grim new projections on the federal deficit are creating a challenge for Republican leaders, who have vowed to tackle entitlement reform ahead of the November elections.
Republican leaders are facing mounting pressure from conservatives to slow the growth of largely popular programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, in line with the party’s broader goal of balancing the budget within a decade.

But with the numbers becoming more daunting, GOP leaders have to decide how aggressively to pursue major changes to entitlements as they seek to win back the White House in 2016.“They have an opportunity here. The question is how much they’ll pursue it,” said Doug Holtz-Eakin, director of the Congressional Budget Office under the George W. Bush administration.

In its 10-year outlook released Monday, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) announced that federal deficits are expected to grow by $100 billion this year, the first increase since 2009.

The numbers only get bleaker from there, with the CBO projecting that deficits will rise by another $10 trillion over the next decade.

Spending on mandatory programs is set to rise 7 percent in 2016, due largely to a boom in healthcare spending, adding new fuel to the GOP’s argument that entitlement programs are driving the country toward financial ruin.

Coupled with a weakening economy, the CBO numbers mean that Republicans will have to make even deeper cuts in this year’s budget blueprint to meet their goal of a balanced budget within 10 years.

“I don’t remember the last time I saw a budget process this hard,” said Maya MacGuineas, who has led the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget since 2003.

“They’re going to have to find $8 trillion in savings to achieve balance. It’s not even in the realm of possibility,” MacGuineas said.

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/267127-rising-red-ink-poses-challenges-for-the-gop

Winehole23
01-28-2016, 09:55 AM
deficit talk is Kabuki theatre. neither party really believes it, except as a convenient club to bash the other party with.

^^^ see above.