Kawhi now leads all small forwards in real plus-minus for the year

[Mr Bones]

Just barely ahead of LeBron, bigger lead on Paul George & Kevin Durant.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/5

[Mr Bones]

For PER, the Top 4 are in this order:

Durant
Kawhi
LeBron
Paul George
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/sf

Every stat has its strengths & shortcomings, but it's hard to argue with him being ranked at or near the top in so many different statistical approaches.

[Silver&Black]

:tu :tu Kawhi

Keep doing your thing son....

[SAGirl]

I am going to deviate from the thread a bit to mention Danny looks aweful by any statistic you use ...
Simmons, Butler and Anderson look better than Danny.
Of course we all know none of these guys can do what Danny does, but it just sheds light on Danny's awful game to start the season. These three guys should not be better than Danny.

[Mr Bones]

I am going to deviate from the thread a bit to mention Danny looks aweful by any statistic you use ...
Simmons, Butler and Anderson look better than Danny.
Of course we all know none of these guys can do what Danny does, but it just sheds light on Danny's awful game to start the season. These three guys should not be better than Danny.

Yeah, every stat has glitches... ESPN's DRPM has Kawhi at #1 among all SFs, which makes sense, but it has Kyle Anderson at #2, ahead of LeBron, Paul George, Tony Allen, etc... Kyle's benefitting from the system on that one...

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/5

[buttsR4rebounding]

Kawhi is leading the league in 3 pt FG% at 50 %. Sit down Steph Curry.

[Chinook]

Anderson is second in the league in DRPM for SFs. Get SAGirl (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=49524) in here to gloat. Actually, it doesn't remotely surprise me to see Kyle have great defensive numbers.

[100%duncan]

:wow




:worthy:

[Seventyniner]

Anderson is second in the league in DRPM for SFs. Get SAGirl (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=49524) in here to gloat. Actually, it doesn't remotely surprise me to see Kyle have great defensive numbers.

It's too bad that his offense is bad enough to cancel it out. But having a league-average player as your 9th or 10th man is quite the luxury.

[GSH]

Yeah, every stat has glitches... ESPN's DRPM has Kawhi at #1 among all SFs, which makes sense, but it has Kyle Anderson at #2, ahead of LeBron, Paul George, Tony Allen, etc... Kyle's benefitting from the system on that one...

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/5

Last year for the whole damn season, Al-Farouq Aminou was fourth, ahead of James and some other guys people have actually watched play. I've had this discussion (argument) with a couple of guys here before. Real Plus Minus, just like RAPM, tells you a few things everybody already knows - like "Kawhi Leonard is a damned good defender". And then it tells you a bunch of things that are just patently false - like "Al-Farouq Aminou is a better defender than LeBron".

The problem with them is, you don't need them to tell you things that EVERYBODY already knows. And you don't need them to tell you things that are patently false. So, bottom line, you don't need them at all. Just a suggestion, but you should consider not bothering to look at them.

[loveforthegame]

:tu

Not surprised. He's been incredible this season.

[Chinook]

Yeah, every stat has glitches... ESPN's DRPM has Kawhi at #1 among all SFs, which makes sense, but it has Kyle Anderson at #2, ahead of LeBron, Paul George, Tony Allen, etc... Kyle's benefitting from the system on that one...

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/5

RPM is supposed to be system-neutral. So it's not fair to say Anderson is a product of the system. If you can't see how effective Anderson is on defense, I don't know what to tell you. He's been great on that end, pretty much doing what Green had done the last couple years. Don't mistake Pop benching Kyle after a lapse as evidence that he hasn't been a fine defender generally.

[Chinook]

Last year for the whole damn season, Al-Farouq Aminou was fourth, ahead of James and some other guys people have actually watched play. I've had this discussion (argument) with a couple of guys here before. Real Plus Minus, just like RAPM, tells you a few things everybody already knows - like "Kawhi Leonard is a damned good defender". And then it tells you a bunch of things that are just patently false - like "Al-Farouq Aminou is a better defender than LeBron".

The problem with them is, you don't need them to tell you things that EVERYBODY already knows. And you don't need them to tell you things that are patently false. So, bottom line, you don't need them at all. Just a suggestion, but you should consider not bothering to look at them.

On one hand, I agree with you. RPM doesn't have the same protections that plus-minus has. It's a model that was created by people to make data match their expectations. So on that one hand, if it doesn't match those expectations, it fails. That's a major reason why DRtg is considered to be an archaic individual stat.

On the other hand, though, you ARE what your numbers say you are. You're a good defender if you have a strong defensive impact on the game. If you don't, you're not. If Aminu had a bigger defensive impact than Lebron, controlling for teams, then he was the better defender, regardless of what seems obvious to you. You are what you do, and if Lebron or George hasn't done as much as Anderson this year (again, controlling for team), then he doesn't deserve to be rated above Anderson. Simple as that.

[Splits]

What a shitty stat. No way it is reliable if GOAT Kobe is 77/77

[cjw]

RPM is supposed to be system-neutral. So it's not fair to say Anderson is a product of the system. If you can't see how effective Anderson is on defense, I don't know what to tell you. He's been great on that end, pretty much doing what Green had done the last couple years. Don't mistake Pop benching Kyle after a lapse as evidence that he hasn't been a fine defender generally.

I was the first to question his ability to play NBA-level D given lack of speed and performance last year, but he's proven me and many others wrong this year.

If KA can become a reliable spot-up shooter from 3pt (he shot 48% on 60 attempts his senior year of college ... 35.4% last year in Austin), he'll be a regular rotation piece once Manu retires. Only concern is ability to guard 2s, though that's the weakest position in the league, if sharing court with Kawhi. That's a long-term problem though - he's been tremendous value for the 30th pick. I'm sure OKC wishes they had a mulligan on that Huestis pick.

[Mr Bones]

Last year for the whole damn season, Al-Farouq Aminou was fourth, ahead of James and some other guys people have actually watched play. I've had this discussion (argument) with a couple of guys here before. Real Plus Minus, just like RAPM, tells you a few things everybody already knows - like "Kawhi Leonard is a damned good defender". And then it tells you a bunch of things that are just patently false - like "Al-Farouq Aminou is a better defender than LeBron".

The problem with them is, you don't need them to tell you things that EVERYBODY already knows. And you don't need them to tell you things that are patently false. So, bottom line, you don't need them at all. Just a suggestion, but you should consider not bothering to look at them.

I think the key to looking at stats is to look at a variety of them and to recognize them for what they are, translations of a player's performance on the floor and not literal & exact measurements... in other words, even though the numbers are objective, the configurations & analysis of the numbers are still subjective. But I think there are definitely still good uses for stats-- you just have to know where to look. For example, I think it's better to look at block to foul ratio than it is to simply look at blocks per 48 minutes. One stat show # of blocks, but the other shows how often a block attempt is successful as opposed to harmful to the team. The key for me is to look at every available stat and balance the entire package along with the Eye Test, not being overly persuaded by any single stat.

[Mr Bones]

RPM is supposed to be system-neutral. So it's not fair to say Anderson is a product of the system. If you can't see how effective Anderson is on defense, I don't know what to tell you. He's been great on that end, pretty much doing what Green had done the last couple years. Don't mistake Pop benching Kyle after a lapse as evidence that he hasn't been a fine defender generally.

Yes, "supposed" to be, but given the situation of needing a stop in a given defensive possession, I think most coaches & scouts would say you wouldn't rather have Anderson in over LeBron or Tony Allen... again, for me analyzing a player is a combo of eye test and stats, but both are fallible...

[GSH]

RPM is supposed to be system-neutral. So it's not fair to say Anderson is a product of the system. If you can't see how effective Anderson is on defense, I don't know what to tell you.

I wasn't bashing Anderson, or even thinking about him. I've consistently said that I think Anderson is going to be a solid contributor - not a star, but NBA-worthy to be sure.

I know very well what RPM and RAPM are supposed to be. They aren't what they are supposed to be. It doesn't work.




I think the key to looking at stats is to look at a variety of them and to recognize them for what they are, translations of a player's performance on the floor and not literal & exact measurements.

I don't disagree one bit. But look at the title and intended purpose (OP) of this thread.

I'll say it again - RPM and RAPM both show either things that are stunningly obvious, or things that are totally misleading. Anderson is a good defender - for the caliber of player he is, and at his current stage of development. Turn that into a comparison of him to a proven veteran NBA defender, and you're just being silly. (In general - not you personally.)

[Chinook]

Yes, "supposed" to be, but given the situation of needing a stop in a given defensive possession, I think most coaches & scouts would say you wouldn't rather have Anderson in over LeBron or Tony Allen... again, for me analyzing a player is a combo of eye test and stats, both both are fallible...

That's not the point of the stat. It's not a ranking system; it's a scoring system. The Eagles beating the Pats doesn't show that points is a flawed metric. Philly outperformed NE over the course of a game, and NE is still a better team. In that way, Lebron is a better defender in a vacuum and still hasn't outperformed Anderson in that regard.

[Chinook]

I wasn't bashing Anderson, or even thinking about him. I've consistently said that I think Anderson is going to be a solid contributor - not a star, but NBA-worthy to be sure.

I know very well what RPM and RAPM are supposed to be. They aren't what they are supposed to be. It doesn't work.





I don't disagree one bit. But look at the title and purpose of the thread.

I'll say it again - RPM and RAPM both show either things that are stunningly obvious, or things that are totally misleading. Anderson is a good defender - for the caliber of player he is, and at his current stage of development. Turn that into a comparison of him to a proven veteran NBA defender, and you're just being silly. (In general - not you personally.)

Again, RPM is wrong for saying Anderson has played better defense than Lebron has this season. I really don't get why you would suggest it has to say Kyle should have a higher 2K rating defensively that James does. It's completely separable.

[GSH]

Lebron is a better defender in a vacuum and still hasn't outperformed Anderson in that regard.

You've been around a long time, and posted a lot of good stuff. Did you really just say that? Tell me you didn't mean what it looks like that means. If for no other reason that LeBron's size, strength, and quickness.

I like Anderson, I really do. But that?

[Mr Bones]

That's not the point of the stat. It's not a ranking system; it's a scoring system. The Eagles beating the Pats doesn't show that points is a flawed metric. Philly outperformed NE over the course of a game, and NE is still a better team. In that way, Lebron is a better defender in a vacuum and still hasn't outperformed Anderson in that regard.

Right, but my point is stats are one tool to use in figuring out players and teams. The problem with them is usually the way they are used, or the balance given to a narrow rather than wide array of them. I'm not critisizing Anderson, but I don't think he's anywhere near the second best defensive SF in the NBA. Kawhi, on the other hand is arguably the best defensive SF in the league. The stat plus the eye test plus an understanding of their minutes (Kawhi starts and defends the opposing team's best player often, whereas Kyle comes off the bench, plays limited minutes, and is used by Pop in attractive match ups) tells me where the Defensive rating stat is closer to translating the defensive value of the player...

[GSH]

Again, RPM is wrong for saying Anderson has played better defense than Lebron has this season. I really don't get why you would suggest it has to say Kyle should have a higher 2K rating defensively that James does. It's completely separable.


Okay, look. I'm trying not to just be argumentative, and still say something. Help me out here.

What's the purpose of computing a statistic, and assigning a number, unless you are going to compare one player's number to another player's number?

If, when you compare two players' numbers, they don't tell you anything meaningful - why go to the trouble of computing or looking at that stat?

I have looked at the results of RPM and RAPM in depth, for years. And it's always the same thing. The guys who everyone knows are really good, show up as really good. I didn't need RAPM to tell me that. If you're trying to use it to help quantify just how good that player is, you have to compare his stat to some other player... right? So when the stat shows that another player is basically as good or better, and you know for 100% sure he isn't? What did that stat tell you?

That's my one and only point. RPM and RAPM are every bit as worthless as looking at regular Plus Minus. The reason RAPM was devised was to try and help teams find diamonds in the rough. To find a clever way of identifying a guy who is better than he gets credit for. The problem with it is that it constantly identifies guys who aren't really as good as the stat suggests.

[SAGirl]

It's too bad that his offense is bad enough to cancel it out. But having a league-average player as your 9th or 10th man is quite the luxury.


Anderson is second in the league in DRPM for SFs. Get SAGirl (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=49524) in here to gloat. Actually, it doesn't remotely surprise me to see Kyle have great defensive numbers.

Specially if you consider that he is a 2nd year player with little experience coming into the season.

And yes, he does benefit from the system as much as everyone else in the Spurs does, but individually he adds and strenghens that system.

By the eye test he checks up as well. His size and length is really hard to deal with, and he has very good instincts on help defense, which is why he makes the system better, not worse.

Looks good to me. Offensively, he has taken a lot of tough shots, so not surprised he hasn't looked good in that area. He has talent however.

[Chinook]

You've been around a long time, and posted a lot of good stuff. Did you really just say that? Tell me you didn't mean what it looks like that means. If for no other reason that LeBron's size, strength, and quickness.

I like Anderson, I really do. But that?

Is Kawhi a better shooter than Curry? No. Is he out-shooting Curry from three this season? Yes.

[spursistan]

Kyle, like LMA, is a guy who we most worried about on Defensive end; instead, he has been doing far better there being quite a disruptive force with his long arms..Hopefully he starts getting better shots (preferably 3s), because those bailout leaners/floaters are going to stop dropping at some point...But, any way you put it, we have got something in him definitely better than your typical 30th pick in the draft..

[Mr Bones]

I don't disagree one bit. But look at the title and intended purpose (OP) of this thread.




The intended purpose of the thread was to say that Kawhi leads all SFs in that particular stat... I think that's very interesting, but I didn't add "this proves Kawhi is better than LeBron" or anything like that... you're reading more into the intended purpose than I meant, which is exactly the problem you identify with stats, that some people over-value the stat above the eye test, or don't balance them out. I've posted quotes from Dean Oliver, the original defensive stat guru, numerous times about the shortcomings of the stat. I don't view it in any way as infallible, but it's definitely interesting enough to look at once a week. Do you really never look at those stats? or would you say you're more likely to look at them with a skeptical eye?

[Chinook]

And as I've said before, I'm not a fan of people using advanced stats if they aren't aware of the math that underlies them. Advanced stats are not improvements on counting stats. They are arguments which rely on a manipulation of numbers to make their claims. Just like all arguments, they can be flawed and criticized. They don't have the power of truth that counting stats do. I've said this for a long time.

[Mr Bones]

And as I've said before, I'm not a fan of people using advanced stats if they aren't aware of the math that underlies them. Advanced stats are not improvements on counting stats. They are arguments which rely on a manipulation of numbers to make their claims. Just like all arguments, they can be flawed and criticized. They don't have the power of truth that counting stats do. I've said this for a long time.

Agree 100%.

[GSH]

The intended purpose of the thread was to say that Kawhi leads all SFs in that particular stat... I think that's very interesting, but I didn't add "this proves Kawhi is better than LeBron" or anything like that... you're reading more into the intended purpose than I meant, which is exactly the problem you identify with stats, that some people over-value the stat above the eye test, or don't balance them out. I've posted quotes from Dean Oliver, the original defensive stat guru, numerous times about the shortcomings of the stat. I don't view it in any way as infallible, but it's definitely interesting enough to look at once a week. Do you really never look at those stats? or would you say you're more likely to look at them with a skeptical eye?

Fair enough. I'm no mind reader.

I can tell you that I honestly do not look at RPM or RAPM. Other stats I look at a lot, but not those. Ever. (Unless I get into a discussion about them, and need to blow them up.)

Brian Cardinal and Steve Novak leap to mind. Admittedly, Cardinal made 2/3 of his shots in the Finals one year - but the next season he shot something like 25% for the season. Novak was never under-rated, either. He was exactly what everyone thought he was. Good 3P shooter, but not a diamond in the rough.

Echhh... enough said. Some people believe in it, I don't.

[Chinook]

It's worth noting though, that Anderson is fifth (might be fourth) in the league (total, not just among SFs) in DRtg for guys who have played at least 100 minutes. I don't love that stat, either. But the fact that both of them and DBPM point to Anderson having an elite defensive impact is a great, great sign.

[TheDoctor]

Keep it up Kawhi!

[Kawhitstorm]

Last year for the whole damn season, Al-Farouq Aminou was fourth, ahead of James and some other guys people have actually watched play. I've had this discussion (argument) with a couple of guys here before. Real Plus Minus, just like RAPM, tells you a few things everybody already knows - like "Kawhi Leonard is a damned good defender". And then it tells you a bunch of things that are just patently false - like "Al-Farouq Aminu is a better defender than LeBron".


Aminu did actually have a better season on defense than LeBron. Aminu played Harden as well as anyone in the playoffs once he was inserted into the starting lineup for Gms 4/5 meanwhile LeBron was impersonating Harden on defense.

[GSH]

Aminu did actually have a better season on defense than LeBron. Aminu played Harden as well as anyone in the playoffs once he was inserted into the starting lineup for Gms 4/5 meanwhile LeBron was impersonating Harden on defense.

You don't even make sense to yourself. You're talking about a season stat, and basing your opinion on two games? Ummm... yeah.

For the rest of you, here's an article from PTR that describes just a few of the problems and anomalies with RPM. I pulled some selected quotes. Note that last year, when it said that Leonard wasn't as good as you think he is, most Spurs fans would have rejected RPM. But when it says that Leonard is the best, you're true believers.

http://www.poundingtherock.com/2014/4/8/5594238/problem-with-real-plus-minus

"It was amusing and entirely predictable that one of the main ways ESPN introduced the stat was by settling the supposed debate for the Sixth Man of the Year award between Chicago's Taj Gibson and the Clippers' Jamal Crawford. *Spoiler Alert* The column concluded that Gibson is the more valuable player.... The amusing part, naturally, is that the article made no mention of one Manu Ginobili, whose RPM dwarfs both Gibson's and Crawford's. One would think that Ilardi's article would trumpet Ginobili's merits for the "6MOY" instead of lauding Gibson's"

"You look at the overall leaders in RPM, and it looks legitimate, more or less, with a couple of notable exceptions, as to what you would expect a who's who of the league's best to look like. Where RPM starts to lose me though, is with Kawhi Leonard, and while I admit I'm looking through the prism of black and silver tinted glasses, Leonard's ratings still have me baffled."

"Leonard ranks 14th (14th!?) among small forwards, behind such luminaries as Atlanta's DeMarre Carroll, Dallas' Jae Crowder, Chicago's Mike Dunleavy and the Clippers' Matt Barnes. Carmelo Anthony ranks ninth....Meanwhile, offensively Leonard is the 27th ranked small forward, behind such juggernauts as Barnes, Carroll, Crowder, Minnesota's Corey Brewer, the Clippers' Danny Granger and noted shooting wizard Josh Smith of the Pistons. Leonard is shooting 53 percent from the field, 38 percent from three and is among the leaders at his position in both offensive and defensive rebounds. I don't think all of that is due to his teammates making him look good."

"Leonard aside, the other way RPM loses me is when it lionizes backup big men such as OKC's Nick Collison, Miami's Chris Andersen and, to a lesser degree, Gibson. However, in that regard, net rating does the same thing....The thing is, Collison couldn't play a lot even if Brooks wanted him to. He averages 5.0 fouls per 36 minutes, meaning he'd be a regular threat to foul out as a featured player. He's valuable, but he's not some diamond in the rough. He's a bench guy who happens to be on a team with superduperstars on it. That's it."

"The reason I've always given Ginobili's numbers more credence than other reserves (besides my biases, of course) is because over the course of his career he's shown he can be completely kick-ass as a starter, playing against other starters. Plus, Gregg Popovich still plays him down the stretch, which matters. If your coach doesn't trust you to be on the floor in the final five minutes of a close game, what good are you ultimately? Still, I think at some point we do have to recognize volume. Minutes matter. Being able to produce for longer stretches matters. It's well and good Ginobili plays like an All-Star for 23 minutes, but there is still the matter of the other 25. If Ginobili gives you A- production for 23 minutes, that's not as valuable as a player who gives you B+ production for 35. Even as biased as a I am, I'm not blind to that reality."

[Obstructed_View]

Matt Bonner must hate him.

[YGWHI]

Matt Bonner must hate him.

Sources say he gave Kawhi that poisoned cheesesteak sandwich...

[YGWHI]

Note that last year, when it said that Leonard wasn't as good as you think he is, most Spurs fans would have rejected RPM. But when it says that Leonard is the best, you're true believers....Leonard ranks 14th (14th!?) among small forwards

Last season, Kawhi finished #5 among all players, not only small forwards.

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/year/2015/sort/RPM

[YGWHI]

Kawhi ranking in the top 5 in RPM and PER, he's the only perimeter player averaging at least a steal and a block per game, and shooting 50% on 3's.

Not bad.

:flag:

[bic50]

Kawhi ranking in the top 5 in RPM and PER, he's the only perimeter player averaging at least a steal and a block per game, and shooting 50% on 3's.

Not bad.

:flag:

:bobo

[SupremeGuy]

Fuck yeah, Kawhi has been kicking ass and taking names this year. I think he's only had maybe one or two "bad" games this year and one of those was the last one where he had the shits.

[Chinook]

PtR is like the worst evidence ever.

[Kawhitstorm]

You don't even make sense to yourself. You're talking about a season stat, and basing your opinion on two games? Ummm... yeah.


Big Dummy, you don't need stats to see Aminu was a better defender than LeBron last season. Watch the game when Harden destroyed LeBron then watch Aminu guarding Harden. It's common knowledge that LeBron was shyt on defense last season to the point where a motivated Harden was playing better D. Does it make Harden a better defender, no. But if you aren't trying then you aren't playing defense, so having the ability/talent is irrelevant. For example, Harden is the worst defender in the league b/c he doesn't try, if you watch him in OKC he was at worst an average defender.

[Kool Bob Love]

Meh.

[tholdren]

PtR is like the worst evidence ever.
48 moh

[bic50]

^^Frauds are back

[dabom]

:lol