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View Full Version : Player Pairs Analysis - 2015-16 November Edition



rasuo214
12-10-2015, 07:45 PM
Alright I did this last season a couple times so I figured I'd do it again. I'll try to do these every month if I have the time and if people are interested in them. This version is solely for the month of November, so it doesn't include the 2 October games and it doesn't include any of the December games. I'll add a ytd version starting with the next version. If you're interested in checking out last season's analysis: http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=245295

Description for those that don't already know what numbers are all about:

These Player Pairs statistics take a look at how the Spurs perform when various possible tandems are on the court at the same time. The numbers in the cells correspond to the tandem comprised of the name in the column and the name in the row. For example, as you can see below, the Spurs outscore their opponents by 7.9 points per 100 possessions when Leonard is on the court with Green.
Players are listed by minutes played this season and this does not include tonight's Toronto game.

Green: The player in the column improved the impact of the player in the row.
Red: The player in the column worsened the impact of the player in the row.
Blue: The player in the column had neither a positive or negative impact on the player in the row.

http://i.imgur.com/kqILljt.jpg


http://i.imgur.com/pI1PDOS.jpg


http://i.imgur.com/QsbAqOy.jpg


http://i.imgur.com/lJTrS0V.jpg

**EDIT: Corrected Net Pairings



Difference between Point differential and Net Pairing. In the first Chart we seen Duncan improves everyone, so why does he have some negative net pairings? Basically the difference is in Point differential if the points per 100 possession is higher than his paired teammate then Duncan is having a positive impact (examples: Leonard is +11.3 with Duncan Leonard is +13.9, Parker is +9.9 with Duncan Parker is +12.7 etc.)

In Net Pairing it looks at the impact that both players have on one another, so while Duncan's teammates play better with him on the floor, Duncan doesn't necessarily play better in certain pairings (Leonard, Green, Parker, Aldridge, Butler, McCallum). So Net Pairing looks at whether the pairing is a net positive or negative.

Example: Duncan and Leonard, Duncan has a positive impact on Leonard but Leonard has a negative impact on Duncan. Combined they are still a net positive by +1.2 points per 100 possessions, individually Duncan is +15.3 and Leonard is +11.3, so combined you would expect at least +26.6 (15.3+11.3). Duncan with Leonard is a +13.9 (so while this is lower than Duncan's +15.3) combined Duncan and Leonard are a +27.8 (13.9+13.9) which is 1.2 points more than their combined individual base (27.8-26.6).


Best Pairs:
Kyle Anderson and any of the starters - Talk about Jekyll and Hyde, Anderson is great with any of the starters, not so much with his bench colleagues. Especially true defensively, the numbers are limited but Kyle with Kawhi or Timmy have been amazing defensively.
Leonard, Parker, Aldridge and the bench - To no one's surprise the starters aren't playing well with each other but they do mesh well with the bench unit.
Duncan and Manu - Whew, good thing they didn't retire, they have been one of the most effective pairings among those with significant minutes, plus they've done a great job improving those around them.

Pop please stop playing these guys together:
Aldridge and West - This duo has a negative net pairing of 35.4. Not only have they been bad defensively but they are also among the worst offensively.
Green and Ginobili, Diaw, Mills, Butler - Again not surprising that Green has been struggling but especially true when he's playing with key players on the bench. What is surprising is that the issue is more so on the defensive end than on offense (not that they are great offensively).

Offensive Stars: Leonard, Parker, Duncan, Ginobili
Defensive Stars: Duncan, Mills, Ginobili, Anderson
MVP: Tim Duncan

HarlemHeat37
12-10-2015, 07:56 PM
The starters + bench mixed units are mostly irrelevant due to sample size, but the starter + starter and bench + bench combos are interesting, thanks for the work, as usual..

Not surprising that Duncan/Parker/Kawhi have had a positive impact on Green's offense, but Green + Aldridge is atrocious, I don't know why people are dismissing it:lol..

dabom
12-10-2015, 07:58 PM
I like this until you said Duncan MVP. :frying:

dabom
12-10-2015, 08:00 PM
The starters + bench mixed units are mostly irrelevant due to sample size, but the starter + starter and bench + bench combos are interesting, thanks for the work, as usual..

Not surprising that Duncan/Parker/Kawhi have had a positive impact on Green's offense, but Green + Aldridge is atrocious, I don't know why people are dismissing it:lol..

Says Kawhi and LMA is worse yet no one is saying LMA is making Kawhi worse.

HarlemHeat37
12-10-2015, 08:00 PM
Says Kawhi and LMA is worse yet no one is saying LMA is making Kawhi worse.

Kawhi creates his own offense and is a top 5 player in the NBA, obviously Green is just a role player that feeds off the stars..

dabom
12-10-2015, 08:01 PM
Kawhi creates his own offense and is carrying the team, obviously Green is just a role played that feeds off the stars..

That doesn't mean LMA is to blame for Green's missed shots.

HarlemHeat37
12-10-2015, 08:03 PM
That doesn't mean LMA is to blame for Green's missed shots.

It means the Spurs changed their entire system for a player that hasn't had a significant impact and is going to be here on a max deal for another 4 years past his physical prime:lol

dabom
12-10-2015, 08:09 PM
It means the Spurs changed their entire system for a player that hasn't had a significant impact and is going to be here on a max deal for another 4 years past his physical prime:lol

The season just started. LMA is going to be a major plus because he stays relatively healthy through a course of a season. Now he is going to get the Pop treatment. I think he'll do good in his later years.

The defense is the best in 10 years and the 5 best players on the floor just got better when needed.

We are on pace for 60 plus games without even using the tip of the iceberg. Pop is still in coast mode with LMA. That'll change towards the end of the year.

I don't know how we blame LMA for greens struggles at all.

SAGirl
12-10-2015, 08:24 PM
Best Pairs:
Kyle Anderson and any of the starters - Talk about Jekyll and Hyde, Anderson is great with any of the starters, not so much with his bench colleagues. Especially true defensively, the numbers are limited but Kyle with Kawhi or Timmy have been amazing defensively.
You make a good point about Anderson. To me, that just reflects Anderson's skillset, he's a terrific passer and an unselfish player in the Diaw mold. He doesn't add much to the bench since they already have many guys like that and may actually need him to be more aggressive.

On the other hand, the SL has had at times a lack of ball movement, so while he's not looking to score, he does plays off others very well and is able to make the correct reads and passes. Therefore his unselfish play and good defense has impacted that lineup positively.

SAGirl
12-10-2015, 08:25 PM
Not surprising that Duncan/Parker/Kawhi have had a positive impact on Green's offense, but Green + Aldridge is atrocious, I don't know why people are dismissing it:lol.. You could say Green has been less bad with some guys than with others, but overall, he's been at varying levels of bad with everyone save Anderson, and that is a very limited sample of course.

GSH
12-10-2015, 08:26 PM
The season just started. LMA is going to be a major plus because he stays relatively healthy through a course of a season. Now he is going to get the Pop treatment. I think he'll do good in his later years.

The defense is the best in 10 years and the 5 best players on the floor just got better when needed.

We are on pace for 60 plus games without even using the tip of the iceberg. Pop is still in coast mode with LMA. That'll change towards the end of the year.

I don't know how we blame LMA for greens struggles at all.


Wait... did you just post something that makes like a whole lot of sense, and wasn't a follow-up to an Apo post? Dead-on and reasonable, every word of it.

I'm a Danny Green fan, but he's on the same trajectory as Ime went out on.

SAGirl
12-10-2015, 08:28 PM
I'm a Danny Green fan, but he's on the same trajectory as Ime went out on.
What trajectory is that?
Not being a troll, I really wasn't following the spurs at the time.

dabom
12-10-2015, 08:31 PM
Wait... did you just post something that makes like a whole lot of sense, and wasn't a follow-up to an Apo post? Dead-on and reasonable, every word of it.

I'm a Danny Green fan, but he's on the same trajectory as Ime went out on.

I'm here to talk basketball. :bobo

YGWHI
12-10-2015, 08:33 PM
Thanks for the thread!

I always thought that Pop could help Kawhi's game playing him with the second unit more minutes. OP numbers support the idea.

Nathan89
12-10-2015, 08:48 PM
Smdh Green holding the whole team back on defense. He needs to step it up.

rasuo214
12-10-2015, 08:49 PM
You make a good point about Anderson. To me, that just reflects Anderson's skillset, he's a terrific passer and an unselfish player in the Diaw mold. He doesn't add much to the bench since they already have many guys like that and may actually need him to be more aggressive.

On the other hand, the SL has had at times a lack of ball movement, so while he's not looking to score, he does plays off others very well and is able to make the correct reads and passes. Therefore his unselfish play and good defense has impacted that lineup positively.

Yea I agree but the key with Anderson is that it's not just from the offensive standpoint where he benefits, the defense seems to do a lot better with him on the court as well. I think you've mentioned before wanting to see Pop use Anderson more in small ball lineups and I agree. Especially the Simmons, Kawhi, Anderson trio appears to be the most intriguing.

I'm curious to see how things look after December especially now that Pop seems to be more willing to play Simmons and Anderson.

ginobilized
12-10-2015, 11:00 PM
Hmmm, very interesting stats. Thanks for the work and sharing!

Makes me wonder if Kyle Anderson might start in DG's spot if things keep on this trajectory. That could be a very strong lineup in some matches come playoff time.
Anderson's defense is really surprisingly good so far this year. I hope Green can find some semblance of an identity and soon.