Playoff Picture

[TheDoctor]

This is the current NBA matchups through 28 games approx. In this scenario, the Spurs would play the winner of OKC/Grizz series.

(1) Golden Showers (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/gs/golden-state-warriors) (26-1)
Games remaining: 55 (29 Home, 26 Away)
vs. +.500: 28, vs. West: 36



(8) Jazz (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/utah/utah-jazz) (11-14)
Games remaining: 57 (29 Home, 28 Away)
vs. +.500: 24, vs. West: 38





(2) SPURS (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/sa/san-antonio-spurs) (23-5)
Games remaining: 54 (26 Home, 28 Away)
vs. +.500: 27, vs. West: 38



(7) Rockets (14-14)
Games remaining: 54 (26 Home, 28 Away)
vs. +.500: 31, vs. West: 34





(3) OKC (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/okc/oklahoma-city-thunder) (18-9)
Games remaining: 55 (25 Home, 30 Away)
vs. +.500: 25, vs. West: 38



(6) Grizz (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/mem/memphis-grizzlies) (15-14)
Games remaining: 53 (26 Home, 27 Away)
vs. +.500: 21, vs. West: 34





(4) Clippers (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/lac/los-angeles-clippers) (16-12)
Games remaining: 54 (26 Home, 28 Away)
vs. +.500: 26, vs. West: 33



(5) Mavs (http://espn.go.com/nba/team/_/name/dal/dallas-mavericks) (15-12)
Games remaining: 55 (29 Home, 26 Away)
vs. +.500: 29, vs. West: 34

[jhfenton]

That's pretty much the toughest set of playoff matchups possible for the Spurs: Rockets, Clippers, Warriors. I expect the Spurs would beat the Rockets and Clippers, but those could be tough series.

[Chinook]

That's pretty much the toughest set of playoff matchups possible for the Spurs: Rockets, Clippers, Warriors. I expect the Spurs would beat the Rockets and Clippers, but those could be tough series.

I assume you mean "Thunder" any time you said "Clippers".

[FromWayDowntown]

My initial thought was that this doesn't mean much, given how early we are in the season. But I took a second to try to confirm that bias and it turns out that the standings at the end of play on December 20 of a given season have actually been a fairly good predictor of who the playoff teams in the West in recent years.

In each of the last 4 full NBA seasons -- 2010-11, 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2014-15 -- the December 20 standings have had at least 6 of the playoff teams correct and last year had basically identified all 8 teams. On 12/20/14, the West looked like this:


1. GST (stayed at 1)
8. NO/PNX (NO stayed at 8)

4. HOU (ended up 2)
5. DAL (ended up 7)

3. PRT (ended up 4)
6. LAC (ended up 3)

2. MEM (ended up 5)
7. SA (ended up 6)

In 2013-14, there were 2 teams that were out of the top 8 on December 20 that ended up making the playoffs, but GST was only 2 losses out and Memphis was only 4 losses out at that point; both made up ground on PNX and DEN to reach the playoffs:


1. OKC (ended up 2)
8. DEN (fell out, replaced by MEM (ended up 7))

4. LAC (ended up 3)
5. HOU (ended up 4)

3. SA (ended up 1)
6. PNX (fell out, replaced by GST (ended up 6))

2. PRT (ended up 5)
7. DAL (ended up 8)

In 2012-13, the correlation to seeding was also pretty good:


1. OKC (stayed at 1)
8. DEN (ended up 3)

4. SA (ended up 2)
5. GST (ended up 6)

3. MEM (ended up 5)
6. MIN (fell out, replaced by LAL (ended up 7))

2. LAC (ended up 4)
7. HOU (ended up 8)

It might have been even closer in 2010-11:


1. SA (stayed at 1)
8. PRT (ended up 6)

4. UTH (fell out, replaced by MEM (ended up 8))
5. OKC (ended up 4)

3. LAL (ended up 2)
6. DEN (ended up 5)

2. DAL (ended up 3)
7. NO (stayed at 7)

[jhfenton]

I assume you mean "Thunder" any time you said "Clippers".

Yes. Yes, I did. :toast

[TheDoctor]

My initial thought was that this doesn't mean much, given how early we are in the season. But I took a second to try to confirm that bias and it turns out that the standings at the end of play on December 20 of a given season have actually been a fairly good predictor of who the playoff teams in the West in recent years.

In each of the last 4 full NBA seasons -- 2010-11, 2012-13, 2013-14, and 2014-15 -- the December 20 standings have had at least 6 of the playoff teams correct and last year had basically identified all 8 teams. On 12/20/14, the West looked like this:
1. GST (stayed at 1)
8. NO/PNX (NO stayed at 8)

4. HOU (ended up 2)
5. DAL (ended up 7)

3. PRT (ended up 4)
6. LAC (ended up 3)

2. MEM (ended up 5)
7. SA (ended up 6)

In 2013-14, there were 2 teams that were out of the top 8 on December 20 that ended up making the playoffs, but GST was only 2 losses out and Memphis was only 4 losses out at that point; both made up ground on PNX and DEN to reach the playoffs:
1. OKC (ended up 2)
8. DEN (fell out, replaced by MEM (ended up 7))

4. LAC (ended up 3)
5. HOU (ended up 4)

3. SA (ended up 1)
6. PNX (fell out, replaced by GST (ended up 6))

2. PRT (ended up 5)
7. DAL (ended up 8)

In 2012-13, the correlation to seeding was also pretty good:
1. OKC (stayed at 1)
8. DEN (ended up 3)

4. SA (ended up 2)
5. GST (ended up 6)

3. MEM (ended up 5)
6. MIN (fell out, replaced by LAL (ended up 7))

2. LAC (ended up 4)
7. HOU (ended up 8)

It might have been even closer in 2010-11:
1. SA (stayed at 1)
8. PRT (ended up 6)

4. UTH (fell out, replaced by MEM (ended up 8))
5. OKC (ended up 4)

3. LAL (ended up 2)
6. DEN (ended up 5)

2. DAL (ended up 3)
7. NO (stayed at 7)


This was a nice research FromWayDowntown. I did it for fun but glad it's a fairly good predictor for playoffs teams in recent years.

If healthy, I think the top 3 seeds will finish as they are now. Not so much between positions 4 through 7. Utah will likely fight with Phoenix for that 8th seed.

Having said that, best case for Spurs gotta be Memphis switching positions with Houston, then playing vs OKC/HOU series winner in the Semis. Also the Clippers and Warriors matchup in the 2nd round.

[Mel_13]

If healthy, I think the top 3 seeds will finish as they are now. Not so much between positions 4 through 7. Utah will likely fight with Phoenix for that 8th seed.

Having said that, best case for Spurs gotta be Memphis switching positions with Houston, then playing vs OKC/HOU series winner in the Semis. Also the Clippers and Warriors matchup in the 2nd round.

The tiers are definitely taking form:

1. GS
2/3. SA/OKC
4. LAC
5/6/7. DAL/HOU/MEM
8. Any of the remaining 8 teams except for the Lakers. It will be interesting to see how hard teams go after the 8th seed, as they'll be giving up a lottery pick in return for two games of playoff receipts.

[Uriel]

The tiers are definitely taking form:

1. GS
2/3. SA/OKC
4. LAC
5/6/7. DAL/HOU/MEM
8. Any of the remaining 8 teams except for the Lakers. It will be interesting to see how hard teams go after the 8th seed, as they'll be giving up a lottery pick in return for two games of playoff receipts.
Based on point differential and net rating, there's a strong case to be made that SA belongs in the 1 tier instead of 2.

[Mel_13]

Based on point differential and net rating, there's a strong case to be made that SA belongs in the 1 tier instead of 2.

The Dubs are 93-16 in regular season games since the beginning of last season and they already have a 4 game advantage in the loss column despite what net ratings might predict. The only thing that will prevent them from equaling or bettering their 67 win mark from last season is some very bad luck with injuries. Barring that, they'll secure the top seed by a comfortable margin.

[Chinook]

Based on point differential and net rating, there's a strong case to be made that SA belongs in the 1 tier instead of 2.

Yeah, in terms of performance this season, the Spurs at least don't belong with OKC. The Spurs have a bigger lead over the Thunder than the Warriors do over the Spurs, though it's likely to even out once OKC and GS play another game.

[FromWayDowntown]

The Dubs are 93-16 in regular season games since the beginning of last season and they already have a 4 game advantage in the loss column despite what net ratings might predict. The only thing that will prevent them from equaling or bettering their 67 win mark from last season is some very bad luck with injuries. Barring that, they'll secure the top seed by a comfortable margin.

This seems true for those reasons and also because going for the #1 seed would likely require more exertion from the Spurs in the regular season than they'd like.

Pop doesn't seem to be quite as indifferent to seeding this year as he might have been last year (though a lot of the midseason "indifference" in 2014-15 was really about the ineffectiveness of the team without Kawhi and Parker for a long stretch of December and things like that and not taxing the rest of the roster too much for games that they were going to struggle to win). But I also don't think he's going to change his stripes and suddenly go all out for 82 games to try to get #1 when getting there is highly unlikely given the way GST is playing.

[Chinook]

We haven't seen Pop throw a game away yet. The only time he's rested players is when he knew he still had a good chance of winning. Any remotely big game has been met with his full roster. If that continues, the Spurs should have a better record than one would expect. More importantly, this is probably the deepest Spurs team since the 2011 and 2012 seasons. You have a legit top eight, a 9-11 that can give you borderline starter's production and a 12-15 that can and would be part of other team's rotations. It's not quite as awesome as having Mills as the third or fourth PG was. But there is a great mixture of vets and young players on the team, and that makes finding rest for the main guys that much easier.

[Mel_13]

This seems true for those reasons and also because going for the #1 seed would likely require more exertion from the Spurs in the regular season than they'd like.

Pop doesn't seem to be quite as indifferent to seeding this year as he might have been last year (though a lot of the midseason "indifference" in 2014-15 was really about the ineffectiveness of the team without Kawhi and Parker for a long stretch of December and things like that and not taxing the rest of the roster too much for games that they were going to struggle to win). But I also don't think he's going to change his stripes and suddenly go all out for 82 games to try to get #1 when getting there is highly unlikely given the way GST is playing.

I agree. Pop's "tanking" was always overstated, but GS seems hell bent on taking a run at 70 wins. I expect to get there unless injuries get in their way.


We haven't seen Pop throw a game away yet. The only time he's rested players is when he knew he still had a good chance of winning. Any remotely big game has been met with his full roster. If that continues, the Spurs should have a better record than one would expect. More importantly, this is probably the deepest Spurs team since the 2011 and 2012 seasons. You have a legit top eight, a 9-11 that can give you borderline starter's production and a 12-15 that can and would be part of other team's rotations. It's not quite as awesome as having Mills as the third or fourth PG was. But there is a great mixture of vets and young players on the team, and that makes finding rest for the main guys that much easier.

I'd also agree with this. The Spurs could very well set a franchise record for wins, but they'll have to better their previous mark by a considerable margin to catch GS. I don't see much chance of that happening.

[TheDoctor]

I agree. Pop's "tanking" was always overstated, but GS seems hell bent on taking a run at 70 wins. I expect to get there unless injuries get in their way.



I'd also agree with this. The Spurs could very well set a franchise record for wins, but they'll have to better their previous mark by a considerable margin to catch GS. I don't see much chance of that happening.

Yeah, I think we are on the same page here. The Spurs need to concentrate and win accordingly to put a nice cushion over the 3rd seed in West and East 1st seed without going all out as the Worriers seem to be doing to reach that 70 wins mark. As of now they're in a very good position at #2.

[heyheymymy]

HOU>OKC>GSW would be a gauntlet.

[spursistan]

If the Spurs beat Indiana and Clippers beat OKC on Monday, we would have 7 and 5 game lead respectively over those teams before Christmas..Barring an injury to a main guy (Kawhi, TD etc), i would feel pretty confident for the Spurs to get that 2nd seed..I don't think Pop will invest in the chase of Golden State, but we should able to be comfortably a 60-62 win team health-permitting..

[Spurtacular]

I like the Jazz playing GS. They could challenge them. But I like the Rockets playing them much more. I still think the one seed is possible and that that should be the goal til further notice.