How about a legitimate reason the Spurs could ring (including beating the W's)?

[GSH]

For more than a decade, one of the big advantages held by the Spurs was their incredible continuity. Not only has the core of the Big 3 remained the same, but their management has worked to avoid major turnover in the roster in any given year. Each year, when the season opened, the Spurs would feature a group of players that, for the most part, were very familiar with each other. And each February, their annual Rodeo Road Trip allowed their veteran roster to cement their trust in each other through the fires of adversity.

In 2014-15, the Spurs opened the season with six different starting lineups in the first six games. Their seventh game, which was the first repeat starting lineup, included Matt Bonner in the starting five. The revolving door in the starting lineup continued to the point that the Rodeo Road Trip featured three different starting lineups in that nine game stretch, most of them including Aaron Baynes as starting Center. Near the end of the road trip, Tiago Splitter returned, and the lineup stabilized somewhat - for a while. But the last six games of the regular season saw the Spurs utilize three different starting lineups. In all, the Spurs used 23 starting lineups during the '14-15 campaign. The one lineup they used through their brief playoffs featuring Parker, Duncan, Leonard, Green, and Splitter had only played 25 games together during the 82 game regular season. Aaron Baynes, who played in 70 games for the Spurs, and started 17, only saw 20 minutes in the seven playoff games.

By comparison, the 14-15 Warriors utilized a total of 8 starting lineups. The lineup that they rode through the playoffs had started 57 regular season games. Two other of their starting lineups accounted for 16 more regular season games, and featured Marrese Speights and Festus Ezeli in place of an injured Andrew Bogut. In total, those three starting lineups accounted for 73 of the Warrior's 82 regular season games last season. For the '15-16 season, the Warriors followed the Spurs proven recipe, and brought back their roster virtually intact from their previous Championship season. And, just as it always was for the Spurs, this was a tremendous advantage for the Warriors early in the regular season. The Spurs, on the other hand, made major roster changes in the off-season, most notably the addition of LaMarcus Aldridge into the starting five, in place of Tiago Splitter. And while that was widely regarded as an upgrade to the roster, his addition involved moving Tim Duncan to center, and finding a way to incorporate a totally different style of play from their new big man.

At first glance, that would all say, "Advantage Warriors". And while it can hardly be surprising that an intact Championship team would come out of the gates playing very good basketball, their unprecedented start has rightfully drawn comparisons to the '96 Chicago Bulls team that won 72 regular season games, and lost only 4 games during the playoffs. But while the Warriors early success was to be expected, what is surprising is that the fractured '14-15 Spurs roster, further fractured by off-season turnover, has gotten off to the best start in the history of their storied franchise, and is only 3 games behind the Warriors record-setting pace.

None of that changes the fact that the Warriors have been, and still are, the best team in the NBA so far. But given that the Warriors are virtually the same team we watched in last years' Finals, and are playing at a Championship level, it is reasonable to think that we are seeing the best basketball that their roster is capable of playing. Not so the Spurs. Incorporating an All-Star caliber player into a lineup featuring several Hall of Fame caliber players, is no small feat, and the Spurs are still making adjustments to accommodate that addition. And when Aldridge comes out of the game, the Spurs have been faced with a similar problem of incorporating another former-All Star power forward into their second team lineup, this time playing as an under-sized center.

That the Spurs have played as well as they have is every bit as remarkable as the Warriors' unprecedented starting record. And there is good reason to believe that the Spurs, unlike the Warriors, still have a significant upside. Not only is their new starting five growing in their comfort level with each other, hidden within their bench are two seeming gems in the form of a high-flying, athletic guard, and a behemoth veteran standout of the European leagues. So while the Warriors are still the best team in the NBA, those sounds they hear behind them are the footsteps of the San Antonio Spurs catching up. And after going where no team has gone before, the Warriors have to be getting a little bit concerned that the Spurs are drafting them for a stretch run.

The Spurs are still an "If" team. If they can solidify their starting unit to their full potential. If they can develop and incorporate their new bench players to the point of adding to the team's playoff capabilities. If time and injuries do not catch up with them, before they catch up with the Warriors, the outcome of this season is not a foregone conclusion. There is a very good possibility that the real Finals this year will be played in the Western Conference, between the Warriors and the Spurs. Yes, yes, for the first time in years, the Eastern Conference has an overall winning record against the West. But at the top, the Eastern Conference is clearly Cleveland... and then everybody else. And they do not appear to be the equal of either of the teams at the top of the Western Conference, LeBron James notwithstanding.

Anything can happen in the playoffs, and that's why they play the games instead of crowning the winner of the regular season. We are not even half way through the season yet, and much can change. But both of those things also give Spurs fans reason to be optimistic. Anything can happen in the playoffs; and much can change. The Spurs are close on the heels of the Warriors, and appear to have room to grow. The end of the season is a long way off, but for the Spurs that just means more time to improve - and the Warriors are a stationary target. Nothing is certain. That's why they play the games.

[Cklbmk]

Boban + Simmons out of no where = GG league

[Mr. Body]

Last year I believed it was a mistake to retain the same roster from the championship the year before. These Spurs need a little kick that a few fresh, hungry players would give them. They have that now, headed, I think emotionally, by West.

[Silver&Black]

:tu Thanks for taking the time to write all that. Nice read.

You say that the Spurs are an "if" team. While I don't disagree....I would say that most of the contenders are "if" teams.

Not worried about the East tbh. If by the Grace of God we make it out of the West...I like our chances vs any Eastern Conference team.

[thiste]

They have that now, headed, I think emotionally, by West.

I absolutely agree with your statement. This is why West is another one of my 'new' favorites. It looks like he's happy here with us and I really, really, really hope he actually is. On the court at least, his heart is in the right place and he's obviously giving it his all night in and night out. I love it.

[ceperez]

Last year I believed it was a mistake to retain the same roster from the championship the year before. These Spurs need a little kick that a few fresh, hungry players would give them. They have that now, headed, I think emotionally, by West.

West is playing very well. He's shooting at a very high percentage. By all numbers, he's doing much better than LMA.

Can a guy this old improve his game? So far he actually has, which is a surprise to me.

LMA has all the talent in the world, unfortunately he's got too many pounds on that keeps him from moving quicker. If he has any chance in playing against Draymond Green, he will need to learn to move quicker.

[hater]

Nobody is beating the cavs this year.

If spurs can win the West that's gonna be our championship.

[DeRozan m8]

lol the Cavs are barely Top 5

[Uriel]

Good read OP. :tu Though I disagree slightly on two points:

1. I actually believe that, at this very moment, the Spurs have already surpassed the Warriors as the best team in the NBA. If you look at games that have been decided in clutch time, the Warriors are perfect while the Spurs are merely .500. As we know, games decided in these situations really come down to chance more than anything. If we throw out the record and look instead at point differential, net rating, or ESPN's Basketball Power Index—all of which are better indicators of a team's overall strength than mere win-loss record—the Spurs are the #1 team in the NBA.

2. Having said that, I don't believe that the Warriors are nearly as close to their ceiling as you make them out to be. Steph Curry is playing injured. Bogut, Ezeli, and Barnes have all been out. Steve Kerr isn't manning the sidelines. Yes, the Warriors have been playing championship-level basketball. But the scary part is that they aren't even whole yet. At full strength, they will be a force to be reckoned with.

At the moment, it certainly seems as if the Spurs and Warriors are on a collision course for the WCF. Who wins that series will almost certainly determine who will win the NBA championship.

[K...]

The warriors are a fucking gimmick.

Small ball is cute when it works then it doesn't work and it sucks.

Curry is good. If curry wants to and can win he will win. But one player teams rarely win. cc 2015 Cavs.

The spurs have too many good players who will feel the moment and reach curry like levels of motivation/talent.

I still feel the warriors are mentally weak.

[Neurosis]

Realistically the only two teams that could really stop the Spurs is the Dubs and Thunder.

I'd be more worried about OKC for matchup reasons than the Dubs in a 7 game series. Execution is what matters in the playoffs, especially in tight games. I feel like our defense can disrupt the Dubs more than OKC. Westbrook just has that fiery unpredictableness and has the potential to break out of any kind of D. His improved playmaking means he can do it for others too.

Curry is great but he's still a one-man show. We can control the rest of the Dubs AND limit curry whereas OKC feels like a pick your poison - I still think we beat OKC but I also wonder if Kawhi can keep Durant locked down AND we can contain Westbrook as a team for a whole series.

If we end up in WCF vs. Dubs I'd be confident we have the ring in the bag.

[SAGirl]

Last year I believed it was a mistake to retain the same roster from the championship the year before. These Spurs need a little kick that a few fresh, hungry players would give them. They have that now, headed, I think emotionally, by West.

I agree wholeheartedly.
In fact, by comments from the season, there was a sense of hungover from the championship even by Pop. (starting the season joking with Bobo, making comments that diminished his desire to repeat... just overall minimizing the ambition of the situation). And that team didn't always play like they wanted it enough. Defensively there were too many breakdowns, lost too many games they should have won.

Then, attrition got us. Tiago cost us a repeat. I believe that is why Lamarcus or no, he was gone. Played only 25 games with the SL? Are you kidding me? We had to start Bonner (Bonner!) for a lot of games (who had a career low 36.5% and he doesn't add anything else). Aaron Baynes, who is a decent player as your bench center starting games with an aging Duncan? Are you kidding me again? I loved Tiago when healthy, but we could not move on with him like that. I believe the added minutes and burden (and maybe a bit of coasting too) caused Boris to have a down year.

When attrition got us, everyone else had an increased burden. Not a surprise most of the guys had down years. Kawhi with his injuries and all didn't hit the level he's at right now until the very end of the season. Danny, Cojo, Baynes had very good seasons. All of them young enough to step up for a larger burden and unsurprisingly, in contract years, but those guys were not game changers.

Then the guys at the end of the bench were crap, utter crap. Spurs could have upgraded, but that would have compromised their attempt to get LMA this year and roster improvements they wanted to make, so they were tied up. I do believe they even wanted Jamychal Green, who has been playing very well for Memphis, but they offered only 1 year, 2nd unguaranteed (the Reggie Williams deal), and Memphis gave him a 2 year guaranteed. Can't fault the man for getting paid.

In general the Daye/Ayers combo could have been spared. Kyle/Simmons were there in the dleague toiling away. Say instead of Reggie Williams you get Simmons last season. It would not have mattered. It was easier to incorporate someone to take a shot (like Williams) than a dynamic SG you don't know.

The issue was that once the season starts, Pop goes with what he had. But just letting you know that cheap upgrades were there to be had. There was just indeed a mentality of staying pat.

------
By the way, nice essay GSH.

[ChumpDumper]

West is playing very well. He's shooting at a very high percentage. By all numbers, he's doing much better than LMA.Actually no.

[NameLess Scrub]

I don't believe in keeping the roster intact unless it can overmatch the rest of the league.
It gives others teams the chance to adjust game and roster to beat the champs.

Imo, title teams need some tweak they can use the next season to try to stay a step ahead while keeping continuity.

With that said, it doesn't seem like anybody has figured out the Warriors so far. Then again Curry is playing at an all time level.

[313]

Good read OP. :tu Though I disagree slightly on two points:

1. I actually believe that, at this very moment, the Spurs have already surpassed the Warriors as the best team in the NBA. If you look at games that have been decided in clutch time, the Warriors are perfect while the Spurs are merely .500. As we know, games decided in these situations really come down to chance more than anything. If we throw out the record and look instead at point differential, net rating, or ESPN's Basketball Power Index—all of which are better indicators of a team's overall strength than mere win-loss record—the Spurs are the #1 team in the NBA.
The dubs have had a tougher schedule, more injuries, yet have the best record in the league. They're the defending champs, and they're the best team in the NBA.

[cjw]

Realistically the only two teams that could really stop the Spurs is the Dubs and Thunder.

I'd be more worried about OKC for matchup reasons than the Dubs in a 7 game series. Execution is what matters in the playoffs, especially in tight games. I feel like our defense can disrupt the Dubs more than OKC. Westbrook just has that fiery unpredictableness and has the potential to break out of any kind of D. His improved playmaking means he can do it for others too.

Curry is great but he's still a one-man show. We can control the rest of the Dubs AND limit curry whereas OKC feels like a pick your poison - I still think we beat OKC but I also wonder if Kawhi can keep Durant locked down AND we can contain Westbrook as a team for a whole series.

If we end up in WCF vs. Dubs I'd be confident we have the ring in the bag.


We haven't faced Curry in a few years in the playoffs, so I'm not sure how he'd fare compared to the past few regular season meetings (he's also playing at a different level this year), but you're spot on re: Westbrook. He's an impossible cover for the Spurs and should scare the shit out of everyone here. Green and Kawhi are much better matches for the Splash Brothers. Kawhi can guard Durant or spot duty on Westbrook, but Green isn't a Westbrook stopper. The Thunder have also been very good on the road this year and their point differential continues to climb.

[SAGirl]

you're spot on re: Westbrook. He's an impossible cover for the Spurs and should scare the shit out of everyone here. Green and Kawhi are much better matches for the Splash Brothers. Kawhi can guard Durant or spot duty on Westbrook, but Green isn't a Westbrook stopper. The Thunder have also been very good on the road this year and their point differential continues to climb.

I haven't really watched them, and they have lost some games they should have won. Since Diaw figured them out and Kawhi "arrived" early in the season, I have not worried about them. But Westbrook (unlike Curry) has an impact on both ends. He really gives Tony troubles on both ends. We don't rely on Tony, but ppl are crazy if they think we don't need him. It will also be tough to overcome games where Tony and Danny come up empty. Those games where our backcourt doesn't give us much are tough to win. Meanwhile Tony scores on Curry as he pleases when he's healthy, so at least you can neutralize some of his offensive production, as well as tire him out. Not the same with Westbrook.

[DMC]

You can spend days beating the Warriors on paper with fancy prose, but until it's done on the court they are not as good.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Realistically the only two teams that could really stop the Spurs is the Dubs and Thunder.

I'd be more worried about OKC for matchup reasons than the Dubs in a 7 game series. Execution is what matters in the playoffs, especially in tight games. I feel like our defense can disrupt the Dubs more than OKC. Westbrook just has that fiery unpredictableness and has the potential to break out of any kind of D. His improved playmaking means he can do it for others too.

Curry is great but he's still a one-man show. We can control the rest of the Dubs AND limit curry whereas OKC feels like a pick your poison - I still think we beat OKC but I also wonder if Kawhi can keep Durant locked down AND we can contain Westbrook as a team for a whole series.

If we end up in WCF vs. Dubs I'd be confident we have the ring in the bag.

Solid :toast

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Nobody is beating the cavs this year.

If spurs can win the West that's gonna be our championship.

LOL no

[r0drig0lac]

You can spend days beating the Warriors on paper with fancy prose, but until it's done on the court they are not as good.

agree 33-2 is ridiculous

[hater]

LOL no

Um. Irving is barely played and just now getting in shape. And he's the Cavs best player and leader.

Pair with what's left of Lebron which is good enough for a top 5 player, and Love who's is also just playing at 100% and you can have a team that has barely scratched the surface and still commands 3rd best record in the league.


Nobody is beating the Cavs this year. (save for injury of course)

[I. Hustle]

https://media.giphy.com/media/2gwGW4P6GQak0/giphy.gif

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Um. Irving is barely played and just now getting in shape. And he's the Cavs best player and leader.

Pair with what's left of Lebron which is good enough for a top 5 player, and Love who's is also just playing at 100% and you can have a team that has barely scratched the surface and still commands 3rd best record in the league.


Nobody is beating the Cavs this year. (save for injury of course)

It's like 9 in the morning. Way too early to be drinking my friend... :p:

[hater]

It's like 9 in the morning. Way too early to be drinking my friend... :p:

Haven't had a drink in days bro. Cavs are barely getting put together and are a lock to top 3 seed.

Watch out

[DarrinS]

Nobody is beating the cavs this year.

If spurs can win the West that's gonna be our championship.

I thought you feared the Grizz. :lol

[DarrinS]

Pretty much everything in the OP is spot on.

[hater]

I thought you feared the Grizz. :lol

Spurs should. Matt Barnes still there.

[DarrinS]

Spurs should. Matt Barnes still there.

:lol

Yeah, that's why no one should give your takes any weight.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Haven't had a drink in days bro. Cavs are barely getting put together and are a lock to top 3 seed.

Watch out

Still in the least and are carried by lechoke

[daledondale]

Nobody is beating the cavs this year.

If spurs can win the West that's gonna be our championship.

[ceperez]

I agree wholeheartedly.
In fact, by comments from the season, there was a sense of hungover from the championship even by Pop. (starting the season joking with Bobo, making comments that diminished his desire to repeat... just overall minimizing the ambition of the situation). And that team didn't always play like they wanted it enough. Defensively there were too many breakdowns, lost too many games they should have won.

Then, attrition got us. Tiago cost us a repeat. I believe that is why Lamarcus or no, he was gone. Played only 25 games with the SL? Are you kidding me? We had to start Bonner (Bonner!) for a lot of games (who had a career low 36.5% and he doesn't add anything else). Aaron Baynes, who is a decent player as your bench center starting games with an aging Duncan? Are you kidding me again? I loved Tiago when healthy, but we could not move on with him like that. I believe the added minutes and burden (and maybe a bit of coasting too) caused Boris to have a down year.

When attrition got us, everyone else had an increased burden. Not a surprise most of the guys had down years. Kawhi with his injuries and all didn't hit the level he's at right now until the very end of the season. Danny, Cojo, Baynes had very good seasons. All of them young enough to step up for a larger burden and unsurprisingly, in contract years, but those guys were not game changers.

Then the guys at the end of the bench were crap, utter crap. Spurs could have upgraded, but that would have compromised their attempt to get LMA this year and roster improvements they wanted to make, so they were tied up. I do believe they even wanted Jamychal Green, who has been playing very well for Memphis, but they offered only 1 year, 2nd unguaranteed (the Reggie Williams deal), and Memphis gave him a 2 year guaranteed. Can't fault the man for getting paid.

In general the Daye/Ayers combo could have been spared. Kyle/Simmons were there in the dleague toiling away. Say instead of Reggie Williams you get Simmons last season. It would not have mattered. It was easier to incorporate someone to take a shot (like Williams) than a dynamic SG you don't know.

The issue was that once the season starts, Pop goes with what he had. But just letting you know that cheap upgrades were there to be had. There was just indeed a mentality of staying pat.

------
By the way, nice essay GSH.


If PATFO were smart enough, they would have moved heaven and earth to get Gasol last year. Gasol would have made the team competitive.

The Jamychal Green situation was a complete failure. They should have cleared room by ditching Ayres. I don't even know why Ayres wasn't even waived after the poor performance during Summer League. Sometimes PATFO are too loyal to a fault, years ago they could have picked up Scola in his prime, but they re-signed Bonner instead.

You might want to add that Belinelli didn't play well in the regular season but came to life in the playoff series.

Spurs failed last year because they could not win regular season games that they needed to win. They couldn't take a game to the next level.

[ceperez]

Nobody is beating the cavs this year.

If spurs can win the West that's gonna be our championship.

Irving still has to recover back to form. The Bulls may be able to beat the Cavs if the Cavs aren't healthy. LeBron just doesn't appear as dominating as he used to be.

[Horse]

[QUOTE=UNT Eagles 2016;8359126]It's like 9 in the morning. Way too early to be drinking my friend... :p:[/QUOT
No mention of how bad the cavs D becomes with love and irving.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

THAT was a quality post.

Nice read GSH. :tu

[Neurosis]

Oh also, I'd probably also add that I think Kawhi still needs to improve a bit more at passing out of/beating the double team. I remember in Utah couple days ago there was a sequence where he was backing down Hayward and there was the most obvious, slow double team coming from the top of the lane. He got in a bad spot, still managed to step through and get a pass out to Mills but the possession was broken and the next pass got tipped out of bounds.

I remember thinking that sort of lapse will result in a lot of bad possessions in the playoffs. He's gotten a lot better and keeps improving though, so I think (hope) he'll be fine come playoffs time but I do worry about how teams like Cavs/Dubs will punish Kawhi in those double situations.

[T Park]

The dubs have had a tougher schedule, more injuries, yet have the best record in the league. They're the defending champs, and they're the best team in the NBA.

strength of schedule says otherwise

[TampaDude]

Dubs haven't played us yet this season. Looking forward to the 25th. :hat

[Embedded]

The Spurs had an early last year because of injuries to Parker and Splitter, and the team lacking continuity and familiarity in time for the playoffs run. It's okay, injuries are part of the equation, last year it was our turn to be struck by the injury bug. Hopefully this year we're healthy.