Seventyniner
01-07-2016, 08:11 PM
Comparing the remaining schedules for the Spurs and Warriors as of January 7, we see that:
Spurs' remaining opponents' win % (including games vs. Golden State): 0.528
Spurs' remaining opponents' win % (excluding games vs. Golden State): 0.488
Warriors' remaining opponents' win % (including games vs. San Antonio): 0.507
Warriors' remaining opponents' win % (excluding games vs. San Antonio): 0.468
The Spurs do indeed have a tougher schedule. Looking further, I excluded games against common opponents. For example, the Spurs and Warriors both play Dallas 3 times each over the rest of the season. Removing those games and all others like them:
Spurs' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (including games vs. Golden State): 0.582
Spurs' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. Golden State): 0.439
Warriors' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (including games vs. San Antonio): 0.512
Warriors' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. San Antonio): 0.401
This indicates that the Warriors have a much easier schedule than the Spurs: 0.038 difference excluding the four Spurs/Warriors matchups. However, Philadelphia is by far the worst team in the league. The Spurs have already played both games against them, while Golden State hasn't faced them yet.
Spurs' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. Golden State): 0.439
Warriors' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. San Antonio and Philadelphia): 0.461
It's cherry-picking to some extent, I know. But the Warriors have played two fewer games than the Spurs. If the schedule somehow had Golden State playing Philadelphia in their next two games (both Warriors gimmes), we would have 35-2 Golden State and 31-6 San Antonio in the standings, but the Spurs would have an easier schedule.
The non-common opponents are:
Spurs: Nets, Hornets, Cavs, Pistons, Rockets, Lakers, Pelicans x2, Kings, Raptors
Warriors: Hawks x2, Celtics, Wolves, Knicks, Sixers x2, Blazers x3, Wizards x2
Other than Philadelphia, all the Warriors' non-common opponents have at least 12 wins so far (and all other than the Wolves have 15+), while five of the Spurs' non-common opponents have fewer than 12 wins so far, and one under 15 wins.
All told, it looks to be a tight race for the #1 seed in the West. If one of the Spurs and Warriors goes 3-1 or 4-0 in the season series, that will likely lock up the #1 seed. A 2-2 split favors the Warriors due to their 4-game lead in the loss column and that the Spurs have 3 losses vs the West while the Warriors only have 1.
Spurs' remaining opponents' win % (including games vs. Golden State): 0.528
Spurs' remaining opponents' win % (excluding games vs. Golden State): 0.488
Warriors' remaining opponents' win % (including games vs. San Antonio): 0.507
Warriors' remaining opponents' win % (excluding games vs. San Antonio): 0.468
The Spurs do indeed have a tougher schedule. Looking further, I excluded games against common opponents. For example, the Spurs and Warriors both play Dallas 3 times each over the rest of the season. Removing those games and all others like them:
Spurs' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (including games vs. Golden State): 0.582
Spurs' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. Golden State): 0.439
Warriors' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (including games vs. San Antonio): 0.512
Warriors' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. San Antonio): 0.401
This indicates that the Warriors have a much easier schedule than the Spurs: 0.038 difference excluding the four Spurs/Warriors matchups. However, Philadelphia is by far the worst team in the league. The Spurs have already played both games against them, while Golden State hasn't faced them yet.
Spurs' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. Golden State): 0.439
Warriors' remaining opponents' win % against non-common opponents (excluding games vs. San Antonio and Philadelphia): 0.461
It's cherry-picking to some extent, I know. But the Warriors have played two fewer games than the Spurs. If the schedule somehow had Golden State playing Philadelphia in their next two games (both Warriors gimmes), we would have 35-2 Golden State and 31-6 San Antonio in the standings, but the Spurs would have an easier schedule.
The non-common opponents are:
Spurs: Nets, Hornets, Cavs, Pistons, Rockets, Lakers, Pelicans x2, Kings, Raptors
Warriors: Hawks x2, Celtics, Wolves, Knicks, Sixers x2, Blazers x3, Wizards x2
Other than Philadelphia, all the Warriors' non-common opponents have at least 12 wins so far (and all other than the Wolves have 15+), while five of the Spurs' non-common opponents have fewer than 12 wins so far, and one under 15 wins.
All told, it looks to be a tight race for the #1 seed in the West. If one of the Spurs and Warriors goes 3-1 or 4-0 in the season series, that will likely lock up the #1 seed. A 2-2 split favors the Warriors due to their 4-game lead in the loss column and that the Spurs have 3 losses vs the West while the Warriors only have 1.