2016 investing thread

[InRareForm]

Would like to have some ideas, thoughts, and information for this year with investing. I am sort of new but I am learning more and more as I go.



anyway..... Energy ETF's seem like a good buy if you are able to wait for the long term.

I follow Kevin Oleary thinking with only investing in stocks with a dividend. So far its been working out.. time is really on your side.

[CosmicCowboy]

Would like to have some ideas, thoughts, and information for this year with investing. I am sort of new but I am learning more and more as I go.



anyway..... Energy ETF's seem like a good buy if you are able to wait for the long term.

I follow Kevin Oleary thinking with only investing in stocks with a dividend. So far its been working out.. time is really on your side.

yeah, a good strategy in this environment to look for solid companies that pay a dividend, then just roll the dividend back into your position.

I'm probably gonna take a flyer with about 20K on a beat down LNG stock and risk 100% loss on a 20X gain in 5 years. If I lose it I write it off @ 40% this year if I win I don't pay tax till I sell.

I'm investing a lot back into my company which has been giving me crazy 6 figure returns.

[CosmicCowboy]

You might want to look at Apple. Their stock has been hammered on the cut back on 6 production. Apple is loaded with cash and has their hands in a lot of new promising tech besides phones and they aren't going anywhere. at a PE of 11 and a dividend approaching 3% at this price point it should be a good safe play for 2016.

[TDMVPDPOY]

You might want to look at Apple. Their stock has been hammered on the cut back on 6 production. Apple is loaded with cash and has their hands in a lot of new promising tech besides phones and they aren't going anywhere. at a PE of 11 and a dividend approaching 3% at this price point it should be a good safe play for 2016.

they are the definition of pure shit...

arent bringing anything new to the table
there latest app what is it? that online payment shit...lol the banks wont allow that shit to have them come in have a piece of the pie what the banks have already built...
apple only makes money from suing samsung and fck them anyway

im glad the chinese mutts are buying iphones and whatever apple horseshit, reverse engineer and mass clone cheaper bullshit

[CosmicCowboy]

they are the definition of pure shit...

arent bringing anything new to the table
there latest app what is it? that online payment shit...lol the banks wont allow that shit to have them come in have a piece of the pie what the banks have already built...
apple only makes money from suing samsung and fck them anyway

im glad the chinese mutts are buying iphones and whatever apple horseshit, reverse engineer and mass clone cheaper bullshit

Yeah, sneeze at a billion + using their phones and apple pay. Read up on their new apple pay deal in china.

[CosmicCowboy]

Btw I don't currently own apple but think at the current price it is a good dividend play with very little more downside in stock price.

[boutons_deux]

Why the decade's second half may look much different from the first for investors — and workers

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-investing-quarterly-20160110-story.html

[InRareForm]

Btw I don't currently own apple but think at the current price it is a good dividend play with very little more downside in stock price.

http://investorplace.com/2016/01/apple-inc-aapl-stock-100-crash/#.VpKQE3OIbqA

[boutons_deux]

The Economy in 2016: On the Edge of Recession

http://robertreich.org/post/136616314155

wait for the bottom?

[sickdsm]

I was an Apple fanboy for awhile but even I realized a few years ago they are not bringing anything innovative to the table.

[TDMVPDPOY]

chinas economy is built on a load of bullshit

their censorship laws probably applies to non disclosing of financial reports, probably explains why these clowns are always saying on pace for 7%gdp every fkn year....why dont they give the world the real results? lol peggin the yuan against all currency to keep the masses happy and employed or else once labor costs gets to expensive where everyone pulls out of china, the govt will then need to do someshit to keep the masses employed or else expect another revolution

[InRareForm]

Twitter at an all time low today....

[DMX7]

I was an Apple fanboy for awhile but even I realized a few years ago they are not bringing anything innovative to the table.

Apple is still a machine but no company can sustain the growth they had going. Unless you need to diversify into or within tech stocks, then I think there are better investment opportunities out there.

[rmt]

Whenever the Dow drops 300 points, I buy S&P 500 index ETF. Or if you want to gamble, buy a little oil, gold miner or lottery tickets. AAPL's a great buy (if you're into individual stocks) - everybody loves their I-phone and China's a huge market.

[InRareForm]

I have been reading on other forums . Exxon Mobil is staying strong given the other oil companies are dropping

[DMX7]

I have been reading on other forums . Exxon Mobil is staying strong given the other oil companies are dropping

The stock price is strong or the company? It's not always really the same.

[InRareForm]

The price relatively

[CosmicCowboy]

Japan style across the board deflation is a very real possibility in the US. For the most part I'm just gonna stockpile cash this year unless I see some stock deals I just can't resist. I'm about there with this LNG stock I've been playing with. I know conventional wisdom says not to chase a stock down but it's so oversold it's crazy...I'm probably gonna buy around 30,000 shares next week and either hit a 10-20 bagger in 5 years or lose it all.

[CosmicCowboy]

The US economy is consumer driven and I just don't see where the consumer spending is going to come from. I think we are gonna bump along at less than 2% GDP growth for years. Most baby boomers are realizing they didn't save enough for retirement and have quit spending and started saving. The generations behind the boomers have stagnant wages and less disposable income. Home ownership rates continue to drop. Taxes are eventually going to have to go up and not just for the rich. They will have to hit the middle class too because numerically that's where the money is.

[DMX7]

The price relatively
You don't really need other people to tell you that though. You can look at the price for yourself and see that it's pretty stable especially compared to other oil companies.

[CosmicCowboy]

Exxon is probably a good dividend play at current prices.

[rmt]

The US economy is consumer driven and I just don't see where the consumer spending is going to come from. I think we are gonna bump along at less than 2% GDP growth for years. Most baby boomers are realizing they didn't save enough for retirement and have quit spending and started saving. The generations behind the boomers have stagnant wages and less disposable income. Home ownership rates continue to drop. Taxes are eventually going to have to go up and not just for the rich. They will have to hit the middle class too because numerically that's where the money is.

So where is one to put one's money? I try to buy "safe" (not that there's such a thing - but large, US) on dips. If I were starting out today, I could not afford a house at these prices (even with the low interest rates). I think if I had to do it over again, I'd keep my stable government job and pension and let hubby stay home with the kids and start some business (but what?). The kids would have had a lot more fun :-)

[CosmicCowboy]

So where is one to put one's money? I try to buy "safe" (not that there's such a thing - but large, US) on dips. If I were starting out today, I could not afford a house at these prices (even with the low interest rates). I think if I had to do it over again, I'd keep my stable government job and pension and let hubby stay home with the kids and start some business (but what?). The kids would have had a lot more fun :-)

Right now the best conservative bet for an investor is to buy big stable companies that pay decent dividends that you feel comfortable holding for five years. You get the dividends every year and historically over the long haul you should get capital gains as well. I'm fortunate enough to be able to invest back into my own business and have been getting killer returns. I can take profit, pay taxes on it, loan it back to the company at 6% and then use that money to make more money.

[rmt]

Right now the best conservative bet for an investor is to buy big stable companies that pay decent dividends that you feel comfortable holding for five years. You get the dividends every year and historically over the long haul you should get capital gains as well. I'm fortunate enough to be able to invest back into my own business and have been getting killer returns. I can take profit, pay taxes on it, loan it back to the company at 6% and then use that money to make more money.

Well, I guess I'm doing what you suggest (but buying on dips - no dollar averaging for me) - only with index fund - don't have time to research individual companies.

[InRareForm]

http://wallstreetweek.com/watch/?video=episode-35-kyle-bass&cat=full-episodes good episode tbh...

[TDMVPDPOY]

2% gdp and deflation?

oil = worth jackshit now

go invest in recession proof industries like health and bigpharma...

[angrydude]

2% gdp and deflation?

oil = worth jackshit now

go invest in recession proof industries like health and bigpharma...

Where's a jail I can invest in? lol.

[CosmicCowboy]

Where's a jail I can invest in? lol.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/geo

[CosmicCowboy]

Well, I guess I'm doing what you suggest (but buying on dips - no dollar averaging for me) - only with index fund - don't have time to research individual companies.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/15-high-quality-dividend-stocks-with-yields-of-up-to-13-2015-06-16

[DMX7]

Big correction today. The market was down nearly 400 points earlier.

[CosmicCowboy]

Big correction today. The market was down nearly 400 points earlier.

Oil hit a new low.

[DMX7]

Remember when the GOP was telling us how great that would be?

[pgardn]

The OP really needs to state if by 2016 he means he wants to make money this year or what?

The time horizon is incredibly important in all of this.

[InRareForm]

Well I am more for value, long term investing.

Day trading or the similar seems way too difficult and only a skill few % have capability being profitable imo

[CosmicCowboy]

With a lot of average people having more disposable income from low gas prices beer (BUd, Anheuser Busch)) and cigarettes (MO, Altria group) should do really well this year even with a recession.

[InRareForm]

With a lot of average people having more disposable income from low gas prices beer (BUd, Anheuser Busch)) and cigarettes (MO, Altria group) should do really well this year even with a recession.

consumer spending was down in december though? but yes cigs and alcohol is totally different and that makes sense.

[pgardn]

Well I am more for value, long term investing.

Day trading or the similar seems way too difficult and only a skill few % have capability being profitable imo

S&P index fund and let her ride.

[CosmicCowboy]

S&P index fund and let her ride.

Terrible time/year to start that method. We haven't seen the bottom yet. IMHO 2016 is gonna get ugly.

[InRareForm]

Yeah more like Energy ETF and see what happens In 3-5 years

[ChumpDumper]

With a lot of average people having more disposable income from low gas prices beer (BUd, Anheuser Busch)) and cigarettes (MO, Altria group) should do really well this year even with a recession.Why would people with disposable income buy Budweiser?

[CosmicCowboy]

Why would people with disposable income buy Budweiser?

Anheuser Busch is worldwide and many brands. Way more than just budweiser chump.

[InRareForm]

Why would people with disposable income buy Budweiser?

http://www.ijreview.com/2015/07/368304-beer-lovers-rejoice-united-states-beer-map/

[pgardn]

Terrible time/year to start that method. We haven't seen the bottom yet. IMHO 2016 is gonna get ugly.

And you are market timing. When are you going over to cash then? Or have you already. And when do you re enter?

Dollar cost averaging. Begin whenever. If you think things get worse wait. But don't throw the method out. If you want to play games and make it interesting be willing to lose.

[CosmicCowboy]

I agree that dollar cost averaging is a viable long term strategy but this particular 2016 market is a falling knife. The fed is out of silver bullets. And yeah except for one speculative play I'm currently in at 15k and about to add 30k to I am solid 6 figure in cash. I can't think of a single reason the S&P won't drop another 20% looking for a bottom.

[CosmicCowboy]

Smart money is going to cash. Fed raised prime 25 basic points and 10 year note interest dropped under 2%. People are just trying to preserve capital until the smoke clears.

[ChumpDumper]

Anheuser Busch is worldwide and many brands. Way more than just budweiser chump.


http://www.ijreview.com/2015/07/368304-beer-lovers-rejoice-united-states-beer-map/If they buy enough craft beer brands, they could do alright, but the regular crap brands are trending downward. That's the whole reason for the consolidation in the first place.

[angrydude]

This thing is going down to 1500.

[pgardn]

I can't think of a single reason the S&P won't drop another 20% looking for a bottom.

I can.

I am unable to accurately predict human behavior.
If everyone believed what you stated do you realize how they would react on Monday?

[CosmicCowboy]

Actually, markets will be closed Monday in the US. Meanwhile markets around the world look down. It was a bloodbath in the Middle East markets with Iran oil going on line. China is sucking, Australia market is so commodity based it sucks with china. Europe is choking on immigrants. A strong dollar hurts us business. Where is the good news that will stabilize the market?

[The Reckoning]

so I heard the secret is buying low and selling high. is that true?

[pgardn]

Actually, markets will be closed Monday in the US. Meanwhile markets around the world look down. It was a bloodbath in the Middle East markets with Iran oil going on line. China is sucking, Australia market is so commodity based it sucks with china. Europe is choking on immigrants. A strong dollar hurts us business. Where is the good news that will stabilize the market?

S&p companies are sitting on cash. They are in good shape. Oil is not gonna stay this low, we both know this. The world overreacts to China IMO. It's really not about news. It's about how people react to news.

Im cool with it though. I could use another 2007 to buy. News was a lot worse then.

[pgardn]

Actually, markets will be closed Monday in the US. Meanwhile markets around the world look down. It was a bloodbath in the Middle East markets with Iran oil going on line. China is sucking, Australia market is so commodity based it sucks with china. Europe is choking on immigrants. A strong dollar hurts us business. Where is the good news that will stabilize the market?

double post

[Nbadan]

Iran sanctions: Middle East stock markets crash as Tehran enters oil war
Source: Telegraph


Prospect of the Islamic Republic pumping an additional 500,000 barrels a day sends stock markets in Dubai and Saudi Arabia into tailspin

Stock markets across the Middle East collapsed as the lifting of economic sanctions against Iran threatened to unleash a fresh wave of oil onto global markets that are already drowning in excess supply.

All seven stock markets in Gulf states tumbled as panic gripped traders. Dubai's DFM General Index slumped 4.8pc to 2,682.56, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index collapsed by 7pc to 5,409.35, its lowest level in almost five years.

The Iranian stock index gained 1pc, making it one of the best performing markets in the world with gains of 6pc since the start of the year.

Read more: https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-sanctions-middle-east-stock-102835505.html


(https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-sanctions-middle-east-stock-102835505.html)

[DMX7]

Volatility is the new name of the game. There is plenty of money to be made by buying in this week.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

consumer spending was down in december though? but yes cigs and alcohol is totally different and that makes sense.

no


"Consumer confidence improved in December, following a moderate decrease in November," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "As 2015 draws to a close, consumers’ assessment of the current state of the economy remains positive, particularly their assessment of the job market. Looking ahead to 2016, consumers are expecting little change in both business conditions and the labor market. Expectations regarding their financial outlook are mixed, but the optimists continue to outweigh the pessimists."

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Conference-Board-Consumer-Confidence-Index


WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $99 in December, which is similar to the $98 average in December 2014. Along with the $96 average in December 2013, those are the highest averages for that month in Gallup's eight-year trend. December spending is usually the highest of any month each year, although the highest estimate for any month in Gallup's trend is $114 from May 2008.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/187988/consumer-spending-averages-december.aspx

The recession news is coming from INFOWARS.

[rmt]

Does anyone think that a Republican president will lift the markets (temporarily)?

[CosmicCowboy]

It depends on how congress turns out. If republicans ran the table it would probably be good for business since according to boo everyone else is fucked and unfuckable.

[angrydude]

S&p companies are sitting on cash. They are in good shape. Oil is not gonna stay this low, we both know this. The world overreacts to China IMO. It's really not about news. It's about how people react to news.

Im cool with it though. I could use another 2007 to buy. News was a lot worse then.

China's stock market going down means Chinese investors pull their money out of the US economy (real estate and stocks) to cover. That brings down prices here.

It's not an overreaction.

[CosmicCowboy]

China's stock market going down means Chinese investors pull their money out of the US economy (real estate and stocks) to cover. That brings down prices here.

It's not an overreaction.


Lots of margin and leverage in the Chinese market. When it goes down big chinese investors lose even bigger. Plus when the chinese market slows mining companies slow, manufacturing companies slow, etc then it trickles down, all the things they consume...equipment etc. goes down...

[pgardn]

China's stock market going down means Chinese investors pull their money out of the US economy (real estate and stocks) to cover. That brings down prices here.

It's not an overreaction.

Understood.

But you also have foreign investors come into the market here as a safer spot. It works both ways. There are people who want to hold onto some wealth as well. Where is the safest place to be? The problem is you are trying to assess another man's perceived position and how he will react. This is not easy imo. The stock market does not necessarily follow business climate as we see it.

[TDMVPDPOY]

china will just print more money and dump into its economy

then when it comes to reporting time, they will just regurgitate the usual shit...on pace with 7% growth,

speaking of oil at USD$30 a barrel, shouldnt prices at the pump be at record lows like the 1990s?

[RandomGuy]

Would like to have some ideas, thoughts, and information for this year with investing. I am sort of new but I am learning more and more as I go.



anyway..... Energy ETF's seem like a good buy if you are able to wait for the long term.

I follow Kevin Oleary thinking with only investing in stocks with a dividend. So far its been working out.. time is really on your side.

Long term, dividend reinvesting does some good things. Read up on dollar-cost averaging, if you haven't yet. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarcostaveraging.asp

[Sportcamper]

My 2 cents…Franklin Templeton Fund & forget that you own it…The majority of us don’t have time to follow trends…

https://www.franklintempleton.com/investor/products/mutual-funds/?utm_campaign=FT-Brand-General&utm_term=franklin%20templeton%20investments&utm_content=11058082347

[DarrinS]

My 2 cents…Franklin Templeton Fund & forget that you own it…The majority of us don’t have time to follow trends…

https://www.franklintempleton.com/investor/products/mutual-funds/?utm_campaign=FT-Brand-General&utm_term=franklin%20templeton%20investments&utm_content=11058082347



My T.Rowe Price funds are sucking ass for 2016. But, like you, I'm not in it for the short term.

[CosmicCowboy]

Markets taking a big shit today. Across the board almost down 4%.

[boutons_deux]

-500

[CosmicCowboy]

Markets taking a big shit today. Across the board almost down 4%.

[DMX7]

Volatility is the new name of the game. There is plenty of money to be made by buying in this week.

Nice call, DMX7. And it may only get worse.

[CosmicCowboy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the S&P at 1600 by the time the smoke clears. I just don't see any positive drivers at the moment.

[DMX7]

It makes Obama's victory lap on the economy look even more ridiculous.

[angrydude]

Catch that falling knife boys.

[CosmicCowboy]

Catch that falling knife boys.

Meh...I'm sitting in cash until I see a bottom. I don't expect to catch it at the absolute bottom...I'm OK in buying back in after a recovery starts. No sense in riding this market off the cliff.

[DMX7]

Meh...I'm sitting in cash until I see a bottom. I don't expect to catch it at the absolute bottom...I'm OK in buying back in after a recovery starts. No sense in riding this market off the cliff.

You buy in increments near where you think the bottom is knowing there's no way you can reliably catch the absolute bottom. That's equity investing 101.

[rmt]

You buy in increments near where you think the bottom is knowing there's no way you can reliably catch the absolute bottom. That's equity investing 101.

Yes, a little at a time. I like to buy in the last 15 minutes of the normal trading hours of the day - seems to go down a bit often.

Of course, just as I post the above today, the market's going UP at the end of the day. :lol

[Nbadan]

DMX7 knows his investment shit....

[InRareForm]

Starbucks anyone?

people love being Gold Card members. I see grandmas with their phones ready to pay with their apps when i go in to get a coffee.

[pgardn]

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/upshot/how-to-make-sense-of-plummeting-global-markets.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0


Read.

And knee jerk in the wrong direction.
Anyone who thinks they know what is going on will be taught a lesson most likely. Again.

[DarrinS]

Starbucks anyone?

people love being Gold Card members. I see grandmas with their phones ready to pay with their apps when i go in to get a coffee.


I used to have Starbucks stock, and it did well, but I sold it off last year. My advice is to NOT take advice from anyone here. Talk to a pro.

[InRareForm]

I used to have Starbucks stock, and it did well, but I sold it off last year. My advice is to NOT take advice from anyone here. Talk to a pro.

Is there even such thing? And if there is how much % do they get?

[DarrinS]

Is there even such thing? And if there is how much % do they get?

Usually, you can open a brokerage account with your bank and they probably have financial advisers. That's what I did. But, ultimately, I decided to put my money into something with lower return, but more security.

[rmt]

Is there even such thing? And if there is how much % do they get?

Get a fee-based (not % or commission) FUDICIARY (they put your interest first) investment planner. I also listen to Rick Edelman on the radio - very knowledgeable although he does push his firm (of course).

[SnakeBoy]

Would like to have some ideas, thoughts, and information for this year with investing. I am sort of new but I am learning more and more as I go.



anyway..... Energy ETF's seem like a good buy if you are able to wait for the long term.

I follow Kevin Oleary thinking with only investing in stocks with a dividend. So far its been working out.. time is really on your side.

I have a chunk of "long term" money I've been sitting on since early 2015 (thought things were going to get ugly 6 months ago). I'll put it on an energy fund (probably XLE) when I think we've bottomed. XLE is at $53 and bottomed around $42 in '09. I don't know if it will get that low but that gives a reference for a bottom. Yield is almost 4%.

[ErnestLynch]

I have ~750k, or had, in the market. End of 2015 I was down 41k. I got out 80% of all of my equities and hold only bonds, mostly intermediate, but some long term, in funds, as well as preferred bank stocks which are, bonds.

My suggestion is, tread lightly. This market has turned into one big commodities trade based on the price of oil. Stand off, ease into it, start following a few stocks. The only stocks I hold right now are telecom and utility stocks.

Be careful. It's harsh out there. Buy the Traders Almanac for a quick tutorial.

Rememeber, the price you buy a stock is everything. No stock is worth a flip if you buy it at the wrong price. No matter the yield. Which reminds me, don't chase yield.

I would go into a long term bond fund. I have one with Invesco ticker VKI, a 6.5 yeilder, and an intermediate itm, non taxable, pays monthly. Municipal bonds. Preferred's pay well but, I don't want to go into the ins and outs of that on a Web Forum.

[ErnestLynch]

Going into Jan 2015 I had 2000 shares of xle and 8000 of AMLP. ( As well as 5000 shares of Kinder Morgan ). Amazingly, trading on the way down I didn't get hurt bad and actually had capital gains on kinder morgan. yep. it was a lot of work and harrowing but that and ...Chesapeake Energy I had capital gains on. How bizarre is THAT ? Not too happy with my Chenier (LNG) trades but, we live on...I have oil royalty to keep me warm and toasty...or, some anyway....those checks are getting kinda thin but still getting drilling agreements in the mail to sign, all in the Permian.

[ErnestLynch]

I used to have Starbucks stock, and it did well, but I sold it off last year.

Wise choice. Starbucks got slammed on their earnings today.

[Bender]

I own AMLP, although not nearly as much as you. I am keeping mine for now. Yeah the price has plummeted, but it seems it is shouldn't really matter what the price of gas & oil is doing. The pipeline companies get paid for moving it along, with long-term contracts from what I understand. I may start taking the divs in cash, instead of reinvesting... sometime this year.

[InRareForm]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-missing-out-on-25-days-in-the-stock-market-over-45-years-costs-you-dearly-2016-01-25

[InRareForm]

Buying a good amount of starbucks today. Great entry point tbh...

[vy65]

Has anyone tried a robo-advisor? I have a couple hundred bucks in Acorns, and I'm not sure what to expect. Anyone have any opinions, good or bad?

[InRareForm]

I am really thinking about going super frugal for like 3 years and investing most of what i earn. I have been reading, listening to podcasts on invest now party with your hard working savings later.

[rmt]

1. If you have a 401k at work, invest to get your company's maximum match - it's FREE money - this you should do EVERY year.
2. Then, if you have a high deductible insurance plan, max out your HSA ($3350).
3. Then, if you're in a low tax bracket, max out ($5500) in a ROTH IRA else max out traditional IRA.
4. Lastly, fund the rest of your 401k up to the max.

[DMX7]

1. If you have a 401k at work, invest to get your company's maximum match - it's FREE money - this you should do EVERY year.
2. Then, if you have a high deductible insurance plan, max out your HSA ($3350).
3. Then, if you're in a low tax bracket, max out ($5500) in a ROTH IRA else max out traditional IRA.
4. Lastly, fund the rest of your 401k up to the max.

#1 is common sense, but I disagree with #4. If you're young, I would invest and save up for a down payment on a home instead. This is just generally speaking of course.

[InRareForm]

Tq-JOFViE9M

[RandomGuy]

1. If you have a 401k at work, invest to get your company's maximum match - it's FREE money - this you should do EVERY year.
2. Then, if you have a high deductible insurance plan, max out your HSA ($3350).
3. Then, if you're in a low tax bracket, max out ($5500) in a ROTH IRA else max out traditional IRA.
4. Lastly, fund the rest of your 401k up to the max.

If you have any credit card debt you are carrying... that should be #1. You will not have any other investment that will earn 20%+ guaranteed.

[InRareForm]

A6-7TmUEh3k

[rmt]

He did say he wants to invest (no mention of cc debt). I don't see a home as an investment.

[rmt]

If I lived in a high COL area (and was single), I wouldn't buy a home. I'd either rent a room in someone's house or get as many room mates together and rent an apartment. If in a low COL area, then sure.

[InRareForm]

If you have any credit card debt you are carrying... that should be #1. You will not have any other investment that will earn 20%+ guaranteed.

or play the balance transfer 0% apr game ... just don't miss a payment lol

[CosmicCowboy]

He did say he wants to invest (no mention of cc debt). I don't see a home as an investment.

Interestingly enough, nice homes in North Central San Antonio have allegedly been appreciating at 5%+.

Also, you can't overlook the income tax deduction of owning...The payment on the house I bought for my daughter three years ago is a little under $1200 a month with taxes and insurance and it would rent for more than that. I wrote off right at $6000 on my income tax on it for 2015 which saved me about $2400.00. Meanwhile, it has appreciated about $20,000.

[rmt]

Texan homes seem reasonable in price, but those property taxes - 10% increase allowed on assessed value - ouch!

[InRareForm]

Apple below $100 after hours

[Bender]

Texan homes seem reasonable in price, but those property taxes - 10% increase allowed on assessed value - ouch!

Just got my 2016 tax valuation... up 10%. I think they jacked it up about 10% last year too.

my house is now valued at double what I paid for it in 1996.

[CosmicCowboy]

Just got my 2016 tax valuation... up 10%. I think they jacked it up about 10% last year too.

my house is now valued at double what I paid for it in 1996.

mine went up 6.85%

[Bender]

I paid my house off in 2014, but prop taxes will go on forever... :(

[pgardn]

Terrible time/year to start that method. We haven't seen the bottom yet. IMHO 2016 is gonna get ugly.


And you are market timing. When are you going over to cash then? Or have you already. And when do you re enter?

Dollar cost averaging. Begin whenever. If you think things get worse wait. But don't throw the method out. If you want to play games and make it interesting be willing to lose.

Plenty of time to crap out again, but look where we are now...

The short term game is very tough for the little guy.

[rmt]

I paid my house off in 2014, but prop taxes will go on forever... :(

Take heart - I think they freeze forever (in Texas) when you turn 65(?)

[rmt]

Interestingly enough, nice homes in North Central San Antonio have allegedly been appreciating at 5%+.

Also, you can't overlook the income tax deduction of owning...The payment on the house I bought for my daughter three years ago is a little under $1200 a month with taxes and insurance and it would rent for more than that. I wrote off right at $6000 on my income tax on it for 2015 which saved me about $2400.00. Meanwhile, it has appreciated about $20,000.

I only meant that you have to live somewhere so I don't count a home as an investment. If one downsizes, then one will get the difference in value unlike staying put or exchanging for similar property. But yes, home mortgage loan at 3+% is a bargain.

[Nbadan]

Oil Hits 2016 High After U.S. Crude Draw Report, Gasoline Rally
Source: Reuters


Crude oil prices hit 2016 highs on Tuesday on the back of a rally in the gasoline market and after an industry group reported a surprise draw in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Brent and U.S. crude's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures finished regular trading about 3 percent higher, riding on the coattails of a gasoline rally that hit August highs after a series of refinery hikes.

In post-settlement trade, both benchmarks rose more than 4 percent after the American Petroleum Institute reported a drawdown of nearly 1.1 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories last week versus a 2.4 million-barrel build expected by analysts in a Reuters poll.

--clip
"There's a possibility we could see newer highs from here, notwithstanding the EIA data, as the market is really fired up on the idea of tightening supplies," said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital.
Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0XN02S


New 2016 High at 42.62......

[rmt]

Whenever the Dow drops 300 points, I buy S&P 500 index ETF. Or if you want to gamble, buy a little oil, gold miner or lottery tickets. AAPL's a great buy (if you're into individual stocks) - everybody loves their I-phone and China's a huge market.

Well, it is like gambling - see my post from 1/13. NUGT (gold miners) was $17.40 on 1/18 and hit $91.93 on 4/21 - what a run. I've been TRYING to buy on the pull backs and sell on days it pushes up - it's a guessing game but it's paid off. Now, when to get out and find something cheap(er). The oil is getting better but still down - much harder as it's a supply issue, not just a change in sentiment.

Sounds so simple - buy low (in fear/out of favor) and sell high (in greed) - but hard in practice.

[CosmicCowboy]

Take heart - I think they freeze forever (in Texas) when you turn 65(?)

nope. valuation still goes up. Only school taxes freeze.

[rmt]

nope. valuation still goes up. Only school taxes freeze.

I stand corrected. About what %/mill rate are the school taxes? On the bright side, I guess he can see it as his house assessment has gone up 21% since 2 years ago. Doesn't help him though unless he downsizes.

[InRareForm]

Stock ticker: HOS

[CosmicCowboy]

I stand corrected. About what %/mill rate are the school taxes? On the bright side, I guess he can see it as his house assessment has gone up 21% since 2 years ago. Doesn't help him though unless he downsizes.

I'm in NEISD and local school tax is almost exactly half the bill.

[rmt]

I'm in NEISD and local school tax is almost exactly half the bill.

That's not so bad then - something to look forward to and you Texans can deduct property tax from federal tax. Our property taxes are relatively low, but homeowner's insurance is very high - can't deduct that. Can't wait to pay off my house so I don't have to carry HO insurance - it's ridiculous here (over $4k with 5% windstorm deductible).

[CosmicCowboy]

That's not so bad then - something to look forward to and you Texans can deduct property tax from federal tax. Our property taxes are relatively low, but homeowner's insurance is very high - can't deduct that. Can't wait to pay off my house so I don't have to carry HO insurance - it's ridiculous here (over $4k with 5% windstorm deductible).

My property taxes on a $350,000 valuation are over $7200.

[Bender]

nope. valuation still goes up. Only school taxes freeze.
but there is a large Over 65 exemption that cuts down prop taxes quite a bit I think.

[Th'Pusher]

My property taxes on a $350,000 valuation are over $7200.

My property tax on $358k valuation is $9,600. NEISD gets $5,800. I do have an additional city tax in there as I live in an incorporated city within Bexar County with our own police and fire departments so that adds another $1800.

[rmt]

My property tax on $358k valuation is $9,600. NEISD gets $5,800. I do have an additional city tax in there as I live in an incorporated city within Bexar County with our own police and fire departments so that adds another $1800.

Wow - that's high. Aren't rents high in SA then? Miami is #4 in rent to income I think - behind NYC, LA and San Fran :-(

[Th'Pusher]

Wow - that's high. Aren't rents high in SA then? Miami is #4 in rent to income I think - behind NYC, LA and San Fran :-(
Property taxes are high for sure but offset by no state income tax. I'm Not sure about the rental market. There are not a lot of rental properties in my area.

[rmt]

Property taxes are high for sure but offset by no state income tax. I'm Not sure about the rental market. There are not a lot of rental properties in my area.

You're probably in a good school district. Texas top 7? admission works against students in good schools though, doesn't it?

[pgardn]

You're probably in a good school district. Texas top 7? admission works against students in good schools though, doesn't it?

Actually yes it does. In the really good State schools like UT.

[Nbadan]

My property tax on $358k valuation is $9,600. NEISD gets $5,800. I do have an additional city tax in there as I live in an incorporated city within Bexar County with our own police and fire departments so that adds another $1800.

I feel your pain....property taxes need to be lower...

[Wild Cobra]

I feel your pain....property taxes need to be lower...

Property taxes were all we had originally. What we need is less government. I'm simply glad I don't get as much government interfering with my life as I pay for.

[rmt]

Property taxes were all we had originally. What we need is less government. I'm simply glad I don't get as much government interfering with my life as I pay for.

I feel like they're intruding too much recently as the SEC voted 3-1 to get rid of leveraged ETFs (like the aforementioned NUGT that's done so well for me). I guess they're trying to save me from myself - that I don't understand the risk I'm taking. Why don't they just butt out, let me take whatever risk with my money that I want and collect the taxes I make on these leveraged funds.

[pgardn]

I feel your pain....property taxes need to be lower...

In places like San Antonio, Fiesta Texas and SeaWorld got off the lists for a long time. It was all on the homeowner and small businesses. Education and Health Care require large chunks of dough in Texas now that the State has shirked its responsibility in these areas. Go back to your article on that big oil company trying to persuade the school board in Port Isabel.

[CosmicCowboy]

My commercial property is a whole different story...sixty six fucking percent increase in one year. And yeah, you can be damn sure I will protest.

[rmt]

My commercial property is a whole different story...sixty six fucking percent increase in one year. And yeah, you can be damn sure I will protest.

And if you ever sell, the capital gains tax + depreciation ... ouch

[rmt]

Holy cow - what a day!

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (NUGT) -NYSEArca  Watchlist
99.90 Up 24.96(33.31%) - actually went over 100 but I didn't catch that.

On the down side - the reason for the rise - a mere 38,000 jobs in May - so probably no interest rate hike - so much for Obama's great economy (his speech day before yesterday)

[CosmicCowboy]

Freaking loving it. I have been playing with an Australian stock that is a startup LNG exporter trying to get a plant in Louisiana off the ground. I started buying in a little at $1.25 and a little more at 60 cents as it dropped. It has been brutalized by shorters over the last year but I still believed in the companies basics. It hit 37 cents a couple of weeks ago and I said fuckit...it's just too cheap and bought 20,000 shares...it's gone back to 85 cents in a few days LOL. Just paid for my Costa Rica fishing trip this fall...:lol

One analyst just came out and predicted $12 a share in a year. I would just be tickled shitless with $5.

[CosmicCowboy]

BTW, the stock is LNGLF if anyone else wants to climb on for the ride.

[DMX7]

Holy cow - what a day!

Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF (NUGT) -NYSEArca  Watchlist
99.90 Up 24.96(33.31%) - actually went over 100 but I didn't catch that.

On the down side - the reason for the rise - a mere 38,000 jobs in May - so probably no interest rate hike - so much for Obama's great economy (his speech day before yesterday)

I love that ticker sign! :toast

[rmt]

I love that ticker sign! :toast

You playing NUGT, DMX7? If so, be careful - just as it can move up quickly - it can move down just as fast. Remember on Thursday it was in the 70s and in January it was in the teens. Sold 2 lots today at $113 - shoulda sold more.

[DMX7]

You playing NUGT, DMX7? If so, be careful - just as it can move up quickly - it can move down just as fast. Remember on Thursday it was in the 70s and in January it was in the teens. Sold 2 lots today at $113 - shoulda sold more.

No, I'm not I just like the ticker name "NUGT". Great Pun!

[InRareForm]

hows everyone 401ks doing

[CosmicCowboy]

hows everyone 401ks doing

I'm up about $1000 today.

[boutons_deux]

Hedge Fund Shakeout Continues (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/06/hedge-fund-shakeout-continues.html)


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/06/hedge-fund-shakeout-continues.html

[tlongII]

Looks like I can't retire for a while. :depressed

[rmt]

Sell gold/miners - buy pretty much anything else especially financials/banks/internationals. Yeah for Brexit.

NC is lovely - mountains are beautiful, refreshing to me to see people praying over their meals (don't see that in Miami). Kids had wonderful time at Ridgecrest camp. Tennessee white river rafting is great.

[CosmicCowboy]

Sell gold/miners - buy pretty much anything else especially financials/banks/internationals. Yeah for Brexit.

NC is lovely - mountains are beautiful, refreshing to me to see people praying over their meals (don't see that in Miami). Kids had wonderful time at Ridgecrest camp. Tennessee white river rafting is great.

I would avoid European banks for now, especially Deutshe.

[InRareForm]

Dow down 300 already

[rmt]

Ladder down. Remember the market had run up on the assumption of LEAVE. Friday probably got us back to before the runup. Buckle in for the wild ride. It's still not as bad as it was at the beginning of the year.

Sorry, on the assumption of REMAIN.

[hater]

Cashing out a few of my portfolios and buying up investment real estate. The stock market is a joke :lol

[SpursforSix]

FWIW, the oil ETFs would be pretty good value right now. The supply/demand has balanced much quicker than originally forecast and the fallout due to Brexit has been was oversold. IMO.

[InRareForm]

FWIW, the oil ETFs would be pretty good value right now. The supply/demand has balanced much quicker than originally forecast and the fallout due to Brexit has been was oversold. IMO.

I hear OIL etf's factor in too many bad companies and thus limiting your upside possibilities. It's still going to be volatile for awhile imo... Def a safer play tho.

[SpursforSix]

I hear OIL etf's factor in too many bad companies and thus limiting your upside possibilities. It's still going to be volatile for awhile imo... Def a safer play tho.

For sure. I don't like ETF personally. I'd rather just trade the futures. But I don't have the nuts to go long right now. Could wake up to oil being down a couple of dollars. I used to put in stops but anything close and I'd seem to get stopped out only to see the price reverse again. You almost have to sit in front of the computer and baby sit it.

[InRareForm]

Anyone have any muni bonds?

Here in California it's tax free for some

[rmt]

Good time to sell - markets at all-time highs.

[CosmicCowboy]

Relatively speaking the US market is better than anywhere else in the world right now. With world interest rates at or near zero international investors are helping drive the US market looking for returns.

[InRareForm]

HOS up $1.05

[rmt]

Are they showing TD's press conference on NBATV? Where?

[InRareForm]

Nintendo stock still kicking ass

[CosmicCowboy]

Nintendo stock still kicking ass

Yeah, who could have predicted that shit to blow up like it did.

[pgardn]

Super virus.

I almost killed a bunch of Pokemon wanderers on a bike trail this evening.

[rmt]

Time to buy NUGT (hit 122 today - down from 167 two weeks ago) and sell S&P500 or just about anything else.

[CosmicCowboy]

Time to buy NUGT (hit 122 today - down from 167 two weeks ago) and sell S&P500 or just about anything else.

I see absolutely no reason to buy gold or bet on gold substantially increasing in value.

[rmt]

I see absolutely no reason to buy gold or bet on gold substantially increasing in value.

I think that there's a difference between investing and trading. I'm trading - trying to buy low and sell high - not hold long term. I play both sides - market's near all time high so most stocks don't have much more room to move up so those I think about selling. Gold usually moves contrary to the market and (NUGT) has dropped $45 in the past 2 weeks so that's my signal to start buying that. I do this with money I can afford to lose - it's very risky but the return far exceeds the below and allows me to be able to afford to stay at home.

The majority of our (non real estate) assets are in Vanguard index funds - those I might glance at/reallocate once a year.

Another example is when Brexit happened - then I sold NUGT (high) and bought other stocks (low) which I'm gonna sell now.

[InRareForm]

I think that there's a difference between investing and trading. I'm trading - trying to buy low and sell high - not hold long term. I play both sides - market's near all time high so most stocks don't have much more room to move up so those I think about selling.

How many times have people said stocks are at an all time just to see it go to New highs.

[InRareForm]

Apple up 7% in after hours

[CosmicCowboy]

Apple up 7% in after hours


i know it's cool to hate Apple but they freaking print money. Crazy profits.

[rmt]

Thank you Ms. Yellen - NUGT hit 117 on Monday and 151 today.

[InRareForm]

First Solar keeps dipping.... Time to buy soon.

What's everyone think about solar energy going forward

[boutons_deux]

First Solar keeps dipping.... Time to buy soon.

What's everyone think about solar energy going forward

All renewable energy is potentially, and already actually, a victim of BigCorp, esp BigCarbon, and their whores in govt.

There are some extremely interesting, promising breakthroughs in solar from US govt (NREL, etc) and other researchers.

BigElectric obviously is trying delay, kill rooftop solar.

What it means to investors? hard to say. soft costs (sales, permitting, installation) are more important as hardware costs continue to decrease.

[InRareForm]

All renewable energy is potentially, and already actually, a victim of BigCorp, esp BigCarbon, and their whores in govt.

There are some extremely interesting, promising breakthroughs in solar from US govt (NREL, etc) and other researchers.

BigElectric obviously is trying delay, kill rooftop solar.

What it means to investors? hard to say. soft costs (sales, permitting, installation) are more important as hardware costs continue to decrease.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-will-the-clouds-part-for-solar-stocks-2016-08-15

[CosmicCowboy]

First Solar keeps dipping.... Time to buy soon.

What's everyone think about solar energy going forward

I love my system but distributed solar is gonna die on the vine. First Solar has a much better business model than Solar City.

[SnakeBoy]

I see absolutely no reason to buy gold or bet on gold substantially increasing in value.

Well it's up like 35% this year. Really just depends if you think a recession is coming in 2017 as many predict.

I'm not saying buy gold (I'm not) but that would be the reason to buy it.

[CosmicCowboy]

Well it's up like 35% this year. Really just depends if you think a recession is coming in 2017 as many predict.

I'm not saying buy gold (I'm not) but that would be the reason to buy it.

Yeah, I definitely missed the runup but I think it's pretty much over. A lot of the big guys that started the run by buying on brexit fears are taking profits and getting out. There is absolutely zero inflation risk in the immediate future and no logical reason for gold to keep rising.

[boutons_deux]

distributed solar is gonna die on the vine.

not dying, being killed nearly everywhere the BigElectricity and its political whores.

The Coming Solar PV Revolution Will Be Electrifying

http://cleantechnica.com/2016/08/16/the-coming-solar-pv-revolution-will-be-electrifying/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IM-cleantechnica+%28CleanTechnica%29

A Dem state like CA has very aggressive pro-solar policies, and the results follow

Welcome to California Solar Statistics

California Leads the Nation



567,372



solar projects

4,429



megawatts installed

$5.32



avg cost/watt <10kW

$4.35



avg cost/watt >10kW


NOTE: Above figures include non-CSI data
last updated: Aug. 10, 2016data sources (https://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/faq/#leads)

https://www.californiasolarstatistics.ca.gov/

====================

Study: California could get 74% of power from rooftop solar


Rooftop solar panels could meet three-quarters of California's electricity needs and about 40 percent of the country's electricity needs, according to a new study from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Researchers at the federally funded lab, which is based in Colorado, had estimated in 2008 that rooftop solar could generate 800 terawatt-hours (http://www.nrel.gov/news/press/2016/24662) of electricity per year, supplying about 21 percent of the country's current electricity demand.

Now they've upped their estimate to 39 percent (http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65298.pdf), in an analysis sure to be embraced by clean-energy advocates who see solar power as critical to fighting climate change.

http://www.desertsun.com/story/tech/science/energy/2016/03/28/study-california-could-get-74-power-rooftop-solar/82360288/


===============

and then you have Repug state corrupted by BigOil:

Texas Could Get a Fifth of Its Electricity from Solar Panels, but It Has a Long Way to Go

Right now solar power in Texas — all of it, both the small, rooftop panels discussed in the federal report and the huge, utility-scale solar farms in the middle of nowhere — is nowhere near its potential. While solar capacity in Texas has been rising steadily, with growth predicted to accelerate rapidly (http://www.dallasnews.com/business/columnists/mitchell-schnurman/20160118-solar-power-starts-ascent-in-texas.ece), it accounts for a paltry 534 of the state's almost 72,000 megawatts of generating capacity, or 0.7 percent.

Texas has largely left it up to the free market to shrink the gap, :lol :lol :lol the Center for Biological Diversity recently gave Texas an 'F' for solar policy in its "Throwing Shade" report on states with large untapped potential (https://www.biologicaldiversity.org/programs/population_and_sustainability/energy/pdfs/ThrowingShade.pdf) for rooftop solar.

http://www.dallasobserver.com/news/texas-could-get-a-fifth-of-its-electricity-from-solar-panels-but-it-has-a-long-way-to-go-8259539

[rmt]

Yeah, I definitely missed the runup but I think it's pretty much over. A lot of the big guys that started the run by buying on brexit fears are taking profits and getting out. There is absolutely zero inflation risk in the immediate future and no logical reason for gold to keep rising.

The big run-up (NUGT was $17 in January and hit $182 on 8/12) is probably over, but I sell when it goes up on every bad report (bad GDP, bad home ownership, bad worker productivity - less chance of the Feds raising interest rates) and buy when it drops back down or when one of the Feds opens their mouth and gives false hope of interest rate hike. Despite the rosy/optimistic view the Democrats are selling, I can tell with the rise of price of gold that things (negative interest rates, bad economic reports, etc) ain't so.

Sorry - had to edit - got confused there - need my morning coffee.

[InRareForm]

Imagine if you bought a 1000 shares of ULTA in 2012

http://www.fool.com/quote/nasdaq/ulta-salon-cosmetics-and-fragrance/ulta

[boutons_deux]

Lumber liquidators just won in court

[InRareForm]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/josh-sason-made-millions-from-penny-stock-financing

[Splits]

The Dell/EMC merger is going to be announced next week. Each EMC share will generate $24.05 plus an 11.1% share in VMW tracking stock. VMW closed at $72.84 today, meaning 11.1% is $8.08, for a total value of $32.13 yet EMC closed at $28.71. So the market is discounting the value of the tracking stock, but some are predicting once the merger is complete the total value of the EMC stock should be $30 or more. Should be a solid safe play for day traders next week.

[SnakeBoy]

I have ~750k, or had, in the market. End of 2015 I was down 41k. I got out 80% of all of my equities and hold only bonds, mostly intermediate, but some long term, in funds, as well as preferred bank stocks which are, bonds.

My suggestion is, tread lightly. This market has turned into one big commodities trade based on the price of oil. Stand off, ease into it, start following a few stocks. The only stocks I hold right now are telecom and utility stocks.

Be careful. It's harsh out there. Buy the Traders Almanac for a quick tutorial.

Rememeber, the price you buy a stock is everything. No stock is worth a flip if you buy it at the wrong price. No matter the yield. Which reminds me, don't chase yield.

I would go into a long term bond fund. I have one with Invesco ticker VKI, a 6.5 yeilder, and an intermediate itm, non taxable, pays monthly. Municipal bonds. Preferred's pay well but, I don't want to go into the ins and outs of that on a Web Forum.

I'm in the process of getting out of bonds as the bond funds I'm in are all at record or near record highs while the stock market is up and gold is also up. Just getting on the sidelines until I see which way the wind is going to blow. The markets, all of them, aren't making much sense.

https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2016/08/22/not-liking-this-spy-sp-500-vs-gld-gold-chart/

[InRareForm]

Oil turns higher on report Iran may support crude-output freeze

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-slide-further-as-iraq-prepares-to-ramp-up-exports-2016-08-23

[rmt]

NUGT is at 121 - time to buy.

[InRareForm]

Starbucks going up.. Always a good buy. Coffee isn't going anywhere and starbucks is a smart/good company

[CosmicCowboy]

Starbucks going up.. Always a good buy. Coffee isn't going anywhere and starbucks is a smart/good company

Reaction to that stupid lawsuit over ice.

[InRareForm]

Amid talks of a buyout, Twitter went up $4 to $22. Wondering if I should sell now?

[Winehole23]

long term, index funds:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-22/the-professor-who-was-right-about-index-funds-all-along

[CosmicCowboy]

I would avoid European banks for now, especially Deutshe.

Boom.

I knew Deutshe was rocky but damn...it might actually fail without a government bailout.

[RandomGuy]

Boom.

I knew Deutshe was rocky but damn...it might actually fail without a government bailout.

Deutsche is in quite a bit of trouble. Not sure how much appetite there will be for a bailout.


Looks like we are closing on the end of the year with no rate hike. I may win our bet yet, but have been sweating the last few months.

[rmt]

If anyone wants to gamble, NUGT is at $13.81 down 22.65% from yesterday.

[InRareForm]

shipping stocks are flying up like crazy today.

made a nice profit with DCIX

[Nbadan]

If anyone wants to gamble, NUGT is at $13.81 down 22.65% from yesterday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NUGT?p=NUGT

Ouch!

[rmt]

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NUGT?p=NUGT

Ouch!

So? It's gone up to $15s since - I play the swings. When it's down, another opportunity to buy - and it's so CHEAP now. Soros bought gold miner last week - let's see if he knows something we don't (like maybe the Fed isn't raising interest rates).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-14/soros-more-than-doubles-stake-in-barrick-gold-as-shares-decline

[rmt]

If I didn't make it very clear before, I would not recommend a 3x leveraged ETF like NUGT for investing long-term. It is very volatile so I day-trade with it - meaning try to buy low and turn around quickly and sell higher - that's why I qualified it as gambling (because nobody really knows what is low and what is high).

[InRareForm]

Anyone see the 5 day chart of DRYS? Crazy

[pgardn]

S&P index fund and let her ride.


Terrible time/year to start that method. We haven't seen the bottom yet. IMHO 2016 is gonna get ugly.


Tough business CC.

The best advice anyone can receive is from people who have seen the good and the bad and admit mistakes.
This is a super tough game in the short term. Everyone should know this. My plan is not short term.

The very best advice I ever received was from a guy who saw 2007 and told me all in while the panic spread. He put out a plan that spread out investing over the entirety of the down slide well through the panic. And I went all in because I had the funds to so and was still relatively young. He told me to stay in and not buy that house with the proceeds. I did not listen. I could have bought 4 houses with retirement well under way and substantial.

Then he immediately went into a long conversation about his worst mistakes. And described how "we" could have been very wrong.

December could be very bad and you might claim you nailed it. But that would ring very hollow.

Suggestion to all. Listen to people who you know (not from a board) who have money and will admit mistakes. And so that means don't take any of the advice I just gave.

[CosmicCowboy]

I certainly admit I missed this one. Shaky fundamentals, earnings, and growth and the market kept going up and up. Practically zero interest will do that. Interesting how 10 year/mortgage rates have jumped since the election.

[Will Hunting]

I can't wait to hear investing advice from Wild Cobra seeing that he doesn't know the difference between gross revenue and earnings per share :lmao

[pgardn]

I certainly admit I missed this one. Shaky fundamentals, earnings, and growth and the market kept going up and up. Practically zero interest will do that. Interesting how 10 year/mortgage rates have jumped since the election.

So this some sort of bubble? Because of low interest rates?
If so, we need to know when to get out. Be ahead of this.

[Will Hunting]

So this some sort of bubble? Because of low interest rates?
If so, we need to know when to get out. Be ahead of this.

There are definitely certain sectors I'd say are in the middle of a bubble. I think commercial real estate, particularly retail and office buildings, has been puffed up by low rates for years now.

[CosmicCowboy]

So this some sort of bubble? Because of low interest rates?
If so, we need to know when to get out. Be ahead of this.

Except for one flyer stock I'm out of the market and just focusing on buying houses for rentals in the 200k range.

[CosmicCowboy]

There are definitely certain sectors I'd say are in the middle of a bubble. I think commercial real estate, particularly retail and office buildings, has been puffed up by low rates for years now.

I agree that REITs are bubbly. Internet will continue to gain on mortar and brick stores.

[Will Hunting]

Except for one flyer stock I'm out of the market and just focusing on buying houses for rentals in the 200k range.

You talking about AMH?

[Will Hunting]

I agree that REITs are bubbly. Internet will continue to gain on mortar and brick stores.

The one exception to this being senior housing properties. There isn't enough new construction of senior housing to come anywhere close to meeting the demand that'll happen as boomers get old.

BKD is one example of this, imo. That company's market cap right now is ~2.3B and I think that's insanely low.

[pgardn]

Except for one flyer stock I'm out of the market and just focusing on buying houses for rentals in the 200k range.

So you were already mostly out for 2016?

What you and Hunting have described has been posited by a number of others I have read of course. Trump has stated this will be fixed with a new Fed chairman. Thoughts on this ?

as a whole the market has reacted with confidence to our president elect. ( or maybe the market does not think Trump matters, I don't really know and either does anyone else, but it appears to be as I first stated)

[pgardn]

The one exception to this being senior housing properties. There isn't enough new construction of senior housing to come anywhere close to meeting the demand that'll happen as boomers get old.

BKD is one example of this, imo. That company's market cap right now is ~2.3B and I think that's insanely low.

This is hits on another very important point. It can be easy to point to a sector that has to grow because of demographics. But picking the right company within that sector can be very difficult. So thanks for actually giving a specific suggestion. And some basic reasoning.

[Will Hunting]

This is hits on another very important point. It can be easy to point to a sector that has to grow because of demographics. But picking the right company within that sector can be very difficult. So thanks for actually giving a specific suggestion. And some basic reasoning.

There are some healthcare REITs that focus on senior housing (NHI, for example), but they don't have as much upside as BKD which is an owner/operator.

Their earnings the last few years has gone to shit because of a merger that they managed horribly which is why their stock price is so low, but that'll eventually pass once they sell more of the troubled assets off.

[InRareForm]

Not sure what to think of the marijuana stocks right now... Tempting as they are low prices at the moment

[DMX7]

If I didn't make it very clear before, I would not recommend a 3x leveraged ETF like NUGT for investing long-term. It is very volatile so I day-trade with it - meaning try to buy low and turn around quickly and sell higher - that's why I qualified it as gambling (because nobody really knows what is low and what is high).

Yes, as long as you understand this then it makes sense. Exploiting the volatility of the market (especially stuff like this) is actually pretty fun. Have you had success with this NUGT? If so, about how much total gain?

[rmt]

Tough business CC.

The best advice anyone can receive is from people who have seen the good and the bad and admit mistakes.
This is a super tough game in the short term. Everyone should know this. My plan is not short term.

The very best advice I ever received was from a guy who saw 2007 and told me all in while the panic spread. He put out a plan that spread out investing over the entirety of the down slide well through the panic. And I went all in because I had the funds to so and was still relatively young. He told me to stay in and not buy that house with the proceeds. I did not listen. I could have bought 4 houses with retirement well under way and substantial.

Then he immediately went into a long conversation about his worst mistakes. And described how "we" could have been very wrong.

December could be very bad and you might claim you nailed it. But that would ring very hollow.

Suggestion to all. Listen to people who you know (not from a board) who have money and will admit mistakes. And so that means don't take any of the advice I just gave.

One should see a fiduciary (has to act in your benefit) financial advisor since each person is in a different situation/stage of life. Or one could read financial books/listen to radio (I like Rick Edelman and for general philosophy - The Millionaire Next Door). I remember that 2007 period when I'd just glance at mutual fund statements and toss in the garbage - trying not to get too depressed but it turned out okay as long as you don't sell (need the money). If you had a lot of cash, either stock market or housing would have great investments back then.


Yes, as long as you understand this then it makes sense. Exploiting the volatility of the market (especially stuff like this) is actually pretty fun. Have you had success with this NUGT? If so, about how much total gain?

Yes, I've had a lot of success with NUGT this year. In the doldrums of January, it was at $1.7 but I don't keep track of gain as it's split and reverse split since (I still have to multiply and divide to wrap my head around what the "price" is) and switched to cherry picking for tax gains/losses purposes - so it's all messed up. NUGT went up to the equivalent of about $17.90 this year so I rode it all the way up. It's fallen way down since then to the equivalent of $4 so I play the swings - just trying to pick up the equivalent of 50 cent swings - of course, one never wants to be in a stock on the way down but I'm "in tune" with it. And this is money I can afford to lose/that I play with - it's not money for food, mortgage or retirement.

The market has taken off with Trump's election because of general optimism for the economy from tax cuts, repatriation and reduction of business rules/regulations. Some have taken a hit like emerging market (China/currency manipulator), gold (interest rate hikes) - some are convinced that Yellen has deliberately kept interest rates artificially low. Financials/banks (from interest rate hikes) have taken off. Quite a difference to what a Hillary win/continuation of Obama would have brought.

[RandomGuy]

There are definitely certain sectors I'd say are in the middle of a bubble. I think commercial real estate, particularly retail and office buildings, has been puffed up by low rates for years now.

I would agree. Retail space per capita has all the hallmarks of a bubble, if the dimly-remembered article on NPR I heard a while back is accurate. I see waaay too much retail, even in a growing city like Austin, but that is just my anecdotal observation.

[TeyshaBlue]

I would agree. Retail space per capita has all the hallmarks of a bubble, if the dimly-remembered article on NPR I heard a while back is accurate. I see waaay too much retail, even in a growing city like Austin, but that is just my anecdotal observation.

Yeah...I had posted an article a while back predicting a commercial real estate meltdown. Its a little overdue now from what I can remember.

[InRareForm]

Starbucks stock will hit 80 mid 2017

[Nbadan]

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve officials earlier this month believed it would be appropriate to raise a key interest rate “relatively soon,” with some arguing for a hike at the Fed’s next meeting in December in order to preserve the Fed’s credibility.

Minutes of the Nov. 1-2 meeting released Wednesday show that Fed officials were moving closer to hiking rates for the first time in nearly a year. Some officials argued that if the Fed did not raise rates at its December meeting, it ran the risk of harming the central bank’s credibility given the many signals it had sent about an impending hike.

Private economists who widely expect the Fed will boost its benchmark rate by a quarter-point at its Dec. 13-14 meeting said there was nothing in the minutes to change their forecast. “The Fed meeting minutes say that the case for a rate hike keeps on getting stronger and stronger,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York. “A rate hike is coming in December.”

Rupkey and other analysts said the open question is how many further hikes will occur in 2017. Many analysts said they were still looking for just two hikes next year. But others said the Fed might make three hikes if President-elect Donald Trump succeeds in pushing a big tax cut package and infrastructure bill through Congress.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.salon.com/2016/11/23/fed-minutes-raise-expectations-for-december-hike/

[pgardn]

One should see a fiduciary (has to act in your benefit) financial advisor since each person is in a different situation/stage of life. Or one could read financial books/listen to radio (I like Rick Edelman and for general philosophy - The Millionaire Next Door). I remember that 2007 period when I'd just glance at mutual fund statements and toss in the garbage - trying not to get too depressed but it turned out okay as long as you don't sell (need the money). If you had a lot of cash, either stock market or housing would have great investments back then.





The market has taken off with Trump's election because of general optimism for the economy from tax cuts, repatriation and reduction of business rules/regulations. Some have taken a hit like emerging market (China/currency manipulator), gold (interest rate hikes) - some are convinced that Yellen has deliberately kept interest rates artificially low. Financials/banks (from interest rate hikes) have taken off. Quite a difference to what a Hillary win/continuation of Obama would have brought.

The bolded is very important. I am younger and don't need cash immediately ( baring medical catastrophe) The buy low sell high strategy does not take into account immediate needs. Some people sell out of necessity due to circumstances, there is no timing for them.


The market might have gone higher with Hillary, no one really knows. This is what makes this so tough. Human behavior is very difficult to predict.

[Will Hunting]

Yeah...I had posted an article a while back predicting a commercial real estate meltdown. Its a little overdue now from what I can remember.
Just to piggyback off of this, I have a lot of visibility into CRE prices because of my job, and cap rates are already moving higher on most commercial real estate sectors because of rate changes. I don't think a meltdown is coming or anything but imo there's going to be a noticeable price dip in the next 2-3 months.

[rmt]

Happy Thanksgiving to you all!

[CosmicCowboy]

Happy Thanksgiving to you all!

X2

[InRareForm]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ideal-buy-high-sell-low-situation-could-be-taking-shape-in-the-stock-market-2016-11-28

Interesting

[InRareForm]

Oil rallying

[InRareForm]

Oil rallying

[boutons_deux]

Six million borrowers are behind on car payments. Housing bubble redux?

Increasingly risky auto lending practices worry the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Still, some economists say we aren't in a crisis situation just yet.

the value of car-loan debt among subprime borrowers – or people with bad credit scores below 620 – last year surpassed a peak reached in 2005, a time known for a debt craze that led to the Great Recession of 2008.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2016/1201/Six-million-borrowers-are-behind-on-car-payments.-Housing-bubble-redux (http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2016/1201/Six-million-borrowers-are-behind-on-car-payments.-Housing-bubble-redux)

(used) car dealers are unregulated sub-prime lenders.

[boutons_deux]

The OPEC Oil Deal Sells Fake News for Real Money

It's hard to blame Russia for using its propaganda machine to help build a post-fact world when its economy depends on a post-fact market -- the oil one. The market's reaction to news from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries highlights its spurious mechanics.

Bloomberg News reported recently that Russia as a country made $6 billion (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/russia-engagement-with-opec-said-to-yield-6-billion-budget-gain) just by talking to OPEC about cutting its oil output: News about the negotiations drove up the price. Now,

Russia has agreed to a cut by 300,000 barrels per day by January "if technically possible." :lol

It looks like a lot -- a quarter of the total cut OPEC members have agreed among themselves -- but then

Russia's output increased by 520,000 barrels a day between the end of August and the end of October, reaching an absolute record level.

Russia has been making money on the increasing price while growing production -- the best of both worlds thanks to some deft news manipulation and nothing else.

Now, even if Russia cuts output by about 2.7 percent of the current level, as it has promised, it will still reap a profit if the price of crude holds at the current level -- about 7 percent higher on Thursday morning than three days before.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-12-01/the-opec-oil-deal-sells-fake-news-for-real-money

[DMX7]

So has the "Trump Rally" lost steam already? I guess we'll have to wait till he's inaugurated to break 20K.

[CosmicCowboy]

Six million borrowers are behind on car payments. Housing bubble redux?

Increasingly risky auto lending practices worry the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Still, some economists say we aren't in a crisis situation just yet.

the value of car-loan debt among subprime borrowers – or people with bad credit scores below 620 – last year surpassed a peak reached in 2005, a time known for a debt craze that led to the Great Recession of 2008.

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2016/1201/Six-million-borrowers-are-behind-on-car-payments.-Housing-bubble-redux (http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2016/1201/Six-million-borrowers-are-behind-on-car-payments.-Housing-bubble-redux)

(used) car dealers are unregulated sub-prime lenders.

:lmao blaming used car dealers.

New car stores are the worst offenders. They put people in cars they can't afford all the time through their own finance companies. It's their latest gimmick to push car sales.

[DMX7]

:lmao blaming used car dealers.

New car stores are the worst offenders. They put people in cars they can't afford all the time through their own finance companies. It's their latest gimmick to push car sales.

Most new car dealers are not nearly as egregious as some of the smaller used car dealers.

[boutons_deux]

:lmao blaming used car dealers.

New car stores are the worst offenders. They put people in cars they can't afford all the time through their own finance companies. It's their latest gimmick to push car sales.

how does the cash flow work? used car dealers buy used cars for cash?, but have enough capital to sell them on credit?

or do they borrow money to buy used cars?

[CosmicCowboy]

how does the cash flow work? used car dealers buy used cars for cash?, but have enough capital to sell them on credit?

or do they borrow money to buy used cars?

Typically the small ones will pay cash for a car and sell it on a note and then sell the note at a discount to recover their cash and profit.

I'm not saying people with shitty credit don't overpay for used cars. I'm saying it's not just used car dealers.

[pgardn]

This is the argument:

saving people from their own stupidity (right) v. some very underhanded ways of making money (left)

Which way do you lean...

[CosmicCowboy]

This is the argument:

saving people from their own stupidity (right) v. some very underhanded ways of making money (left)

Which way do you lean...

Saving people from their own stupidity is impossible.

People with lousy credit pay a higher interest rate because they have a proven history of slow payment or even non-payment.

Government cracking down on high interest lenders of last resort accomplishes only one thing...it reduces or eliminates the availability of loans to people with bad credit.

Now self righteous liberals can claim that's a good thing because it keeps people from taking on debt they shouldn't take on...but tell that to the person that has to have a vehicle to get to work and the transmission on their car craters and they don't have the cash sitting around to fix it.

Is your self righteous indignation demanding legislation against high interest loans worth that person losing their job because they can't get to work?

[CosmicCowboy]

On a different note, all the hoopla over DOW 20,000 is a fucking joke. The DOW is a TERRIBLE indicator.