RandomGuy
01-19-2016, 09:44 AM
ACCORDING to America’s secretary of state, John Kerry, “Implementation Day” for the Iran nuclear accord could be just “days away if all goes well”. He was not expecting two US Navy patrol boats and their crews to be seized by Iranian Revolutionary Guards on January 12th after unintentionally entering Iranian waters near an island naval base. But with both sides determined to smooth things over, the boats and the sailors were released the following day.
As long as there are no new shocks, the big day looks set to be announced in the next few days—sooner than was expected when the deal was struck last July. Iran will be judged to have complied with all its obligations in dismantling those parts of its nuclear programme which offered a path to building a bomb. In return the UN, America and the EU will drop or suspend all their nuclear-related sanctions. At the same time, Iran will apply the Additional Protocol of its safeguards agreement (subject to ratification by its parliament, the Majlis) with the International Atomic Energy Agency, a measure which gives the agency’s inspectors access to materials and sites beyond declared nuclear facilities.
Iran is very near to completing the removal of some 14,000 uranium-enrichment centrifuges. The core of the Arak heavy-water reactor, which had the potential to produce plutonium, was reportedly taken out on January 11th and is being filled with cement. Most of Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium was sent to Russia and Kazakhstan in late December. Nuclear proliferation experts are amazed at the speed with which Iran has acted. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and the head of its Atomic Energy Organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, have appeared determined to navigate all obstacles, even supposed red lines drawn by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to get the job done.
Yet there are still important players in the regime, such as the Revolutionary Guards, who remain hostile to the deal and are prepared to test the West’s commitment to it. The IAEA received minimal co-operation in preparing its report, published in early December, on the possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear programme. It concluded that Iran had a parallel clandestine weapons programme until 2003 and that some aspects of it continued until 2009. But there was no admission of this by Iran and no access to the scientists the agency wanted to talk to. It was also unable to carry out verification procedures at the Parchin military complex, where it believes there was an explosives chamber.
...
The response to an Iranian test of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile in October that violated a UN Security Council resolution was also less than resolute. Mr Samore says that it was clearly intended by the Guards to provoke a reaction from America that would give Iranian critics of the deal the chance to stall or kill it. Persuaded by Mr Kerry, who had his ear bent by Mr Zarif, not to rise to the bait, Barack Obama flip-flopped over slapping on new sanctions, first indicating he would, but then withdrawing the threat.
As for the prospects of the deal holding, Mr Samore thinks the Iranians have an incentive to co-operate for the time being, as they will benefit by up to $100 billion from the unfreezing of assets. But if other benefits, such as increased oil revenues, are slow to come, this might not last.
A more immediate threat will come from whoever is the next American president. A Republican could choose to sabotage the deal with new sanctions, while even Hillary Clinton, says Mr Samore, will need to show there is a new sheriff in town if Iran’s behaviour in non-nuclear areas (missile tests, the unjustified imprisonment of American citizens, support for the Syrian regime and abuse of human rights) does not change. Getting to Implementation Day has been surprisingly smooth. What comes after will be a lot
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21688442-sanctions-are-about-be-lifted-end-beginning
The interesting thing about both Iran and Cuba are that both governments blame all their problems on the US.
Our hostility has directly propped up both regimes, by making that scapegoating plausible. Remove the sanctions, and you knock that leg out from under them. People can be misled, but aren’t entirely stupid. I don’t think either government is entirely ready to accept more responsibility for their own moribund economies. It is the middle of a global slowdown, but economic activity in both countries has been sclerotic so it is hard to imagine they won’t post some solid growth in the next few years , now that some investment money comes in.
I am cautiously optimistic that both countries will move towards some modest gains in human rights as their people get out and interact more with the rest of the world.
As long as there are no new shocks, the big day looks set to be announced in the next few days—sooner than was expected when the deal was struck last July. Iran will be judged to have complied with all its obligations in dismantling those parts of its nuclear programme which offered a path to building a bomb. In return the UN, America and the EU will drop or suspend all their nuclear-related sanctions. At the same time, Iran will apply the Additional Protocol of its safeguards agreement (subject to ratification by its parliament, the Majlis) with the International Atomic Energy Agency, a measure which gives the agency’s inspectors access to materials and sites beyond declared nuclear facilities.
Iran is very near to completing the removal of some 14,000 uranium-enrichment centrifuges. The core of the Arak heavy-water reactor, which had the potential to produce plutonium, was reportedly taken out on January 11th and is being filled with cement. Most of Iran’s stockpile of low-enriched uranium was sent to Russia and Kazakhstan in late December. Nuclear proliferation experts are amazed at the speed with which Iran has acted. Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and the head of its Atomic Energy Organisation, Ali Akbar Salehi, have appeared determined to navigate all obstacles, even supposed red lines drawn by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to get the job done.
Yet there are still important players in the regime, such as the Revolutionary Guards, who remain hostile to the deal and are prepared to test the West’s commitment to it. The IAEA received minimal co-operation in preparing its report, published in early December, on the possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear programme. It concluded that Iran had a parallel clandestine weapons programme until 2003 and that some aspects of it continued until 2009. But there was no admission of this by Iran and no access to the scientists the agency wanted to talk to. It was also unable to carry out verification procedures at the Parchin military complex, where it believes there was an explosives chamber.
...
The response to an Iranian test of a nuclear-capable ballistic missile in October that violated a UN Security Council resolution was also less than resolute. Mr Samore says that it was clearly intended by the Guards to provoke a reaction from America that would give Iranian critics of the deal the chance to stall or kill it. Persuaded by Mr Kerry, who had his ear bent by Mr Zarif, not to rise to the bait, Barack Obama flip-flopped over slapping on new sanctions, first indicating he would, but then withdrawing the threat.
As for the prospects of the deal holding, Mr Samore thinks the Iranians have an incentive to co-operate for the time being, as they will benefit by up to $100 billion from the unfreezing of assets. But if other benefits, such as increased oil revenues, are slow to come, this might not last.
A more immediate threat will come from whoever is the next American president. A Republican could choose to sabotage the deal with new sanctions, while even Hillary Clinton, says Mr Samore, will need to show there is a new sheriff in town if Iran’s behaviour in non-nuclear areas (missile tests, the unjustified imprisonment of American citizens, support for the Syrian regime and abuse of human rights) does not change. Getting to Implementation Day has been surprisingly smooth. What comes after will be a lot
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21688442-sanctions-are-about-be-lifted-end-beginning
The interesting thing about both Iran and Cuba are that both governments blame all their problems on the US.
Our hostility has directly propped up both regimes, by making that scapegoating plausible. Remove the sanctions, and you knock that leg out from under them. People can be misled, but aren’t entirely stupid. I don’t think either government is entirely ready to accept more responsibility for their own moribund economies. It is the middle of a global slowdown, but economic activity in both countries has been sclerotic so it is hard to imagine they won’t post some solid growth in the next few years , now that some investment money comes in.
I am cautiously optimistic that both countries will move towards some modest gains in human rights as their people get out and interact more with the rest of the world.