Spurs now a majority likely to win Finals, per Basketball-reference.

[Galileo]

Win Finals

Cleveland Cavaliers 5.3%
Toronto Raptors 2.3%
Atlanta Hawks 1.2%
Indiana Pacers 1.2%
Chicago Bulls 0.7%
Boston Celtics 0.1%
Detroit Pistons 0.1%
Miami Heat 0.2%
Charlotte Hornets 0.5%

Golden State Warriors 27.9%
San Antonio Spurs 51.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder 6.0%
Los Angeles Clippers 0.8%

http://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

:flag::flag::flag::flag::flag::flag:

[SpurPadre]

I think that figure was projected pre-Cavs and Bulls getting cannibalized at home by the Dubs.

[Spurtacular]

Cavs with a free pass to the finals, and they're still at only 5.3 percent :lmao

[SpurPadre]

Cavs with a free pass to the finals, and they're still at only 5.3 percent :lmao

That's overblown, tbh. Raptors have a shot to beat them and the Bulls won't be an easy out for them either.

[dabom]

:bobo

[Spurtacular]

That's overblown, tbh. Raptors have a shot to beat them and the Bulls won't be an easy out for them either.

Cavs Finals spot is booked, tbh.

[exstatic]

I think that figure was projected pre-Cavs and Bulls getting cannibalized at home by the Dubs.

BBREF doesn't care about individual games. It's a stats site. According to them, our record should be one game better than it is, and GSs should be four games worse.

[SpurPadre]

BBREF doesn't care about individual games. It's a stats site. According to them, our record should be one game better than it is, and GSs should be four games worse.

You're right and records-wise, they do have a point.

[HarlemHeat37]

That's overblown, tbh. Raptors have a shot to beat them and the Bulls won't be an easy out for them either.

Raptors are never a real contender, tbh..they are always built for the regular season, same with Chicago..

[SpurPadre]

Raptors are never a real contender, tbh..they are always built for the regular season, same with Chicago..

Teams do break through from time to time. You can't always just refer to the past. Who knows what will happen by the trade deadline, too.

[HarlemHeat37]

Teams do break through from time to time. You can't always just refer to the past. Who knows what will happen by the trade deadline, too.

The NBA is by far the most predictable league, though..there are rarely years where you'll have more than 3-4 potential contenders..

Some teams will catch an injury break, or you'll have young teams that progressively improve and "pay their dues" in the playoffs, but there's nobody like that in the East, unfortunately, IMO..

[SpurPadre]

The NBA is by far the most predictable league, though..there are rarely years where you'll have more than 3-4 potential contenders..

Some teams will catch an injury break, or you'll have young teams that progressively improve and "pay their dues" in the playoffs, but there's nobody like that in the East, unfortunately, IMO..

I agree in that the East is still lacking in true contenders and that the NBA is the most predictable league in the U.S. However, I still think they've seen improvements there and that they're no longer intimidated by a LeBron team. I don't think an upset is out of the question. I'd even think the Pistons can give the Cavs fits.

[Kawhitstorm]

The NBA is by far the most predictable league, though..there are rarely years where you'll have more than 3-4 potential contenders..

Some teams will catch an injury break, or you'll have young teams that progressively improve and "pay their dues" in the playoffs, but there's nobody like that in the East, unfortunately, IMO..

The most predictable league is La Liga (RM/Barca)/Bundesliga (Bayern).:lol

[Amuseddaysleeper]

The most predictable league is La Liga (RM/Barca)/Bundesliga (Bayern).:lol

Well Atletico Madrid won the league title prior to last season, but I know what you mean.

[KaiRMD1]

Cavs Finals spot is booked, tbh.

If LeBron gets injured, do the Cavs still glide into the finals?

[dabom]

If LeBron gets injured, do the Cavs still glide into the finals?

Not with kyrie and love as your best players. :lol

[Spurtacular]

If LeBron gets injured, do the Cavs still glide into the finals?

It won't matter either way in that event, tbh.

[GSH]

This is what happens when there's a week between when an article is written, and when it's published.

[Cry Havoc]

Teams do break through from time to time. You can't always just refer to the past. Who knows what will happen by the trade deadline, too.

Raptors won't break through playing ISOball. Just not going to happen. That's why they choke in the playoffs when the game slows down and teams start playing solid defense for more than 5 minutes per game.

[BatManu20]

That figure was projected pre-Cavs and Bulls getting cannibalized at home by the Dubs.

[Uriel]

ESPN's BPI has us as an over 50% chance of winning the title too.

[100%duncan]

Meh

[TheMulletMan3000]

I think that figure was projected pre-Cavs and Bulls getting cannibalized at home by the Dubs.

[will_spurs]

This is what happens when there's a week between when an article is written, and when it's published.

It's not an article, it's a simulation run on a daily basis... 2 games are unlikely to change the outcome in a significant manner at this stage.

[Horry Hipcheck]

I like the Spurs' chances as long as GSW keeps wasting energy in pursuit of 73.

[exstatic]

This is what happens when there's a week between when an article is written, and when it's published.

It's not an article, it's projection matrix page that is updated DAILY.

Do people even click on links before opening their pie holes and looking like fools?

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

Who cares. It's all about matchups in the West. Seriously, OKC GSW and Spurs all have a shot.

[DJR210]

Cavs Finals spot is booked, tbh.

I agree.. The Cavs will be tested at times, but they're a lock. Never sleep on LeBron.

[DJR210]

It's not an article, it's a simulation run on a daily basis... 2 games are unlikely to change the outcome in a significant manner at this stage.

:worthy: at your Kawhi sig tbh

[boutons_deux]

If LeBron gets injured, do the Cavs still glide into the finals?

A healthy but peak-passed Lebron can't carry the Cavs.

[will_spurs]

:worthy: at your Kawhi sig tbh

Single greatest defensive play I've ever seen. Thought it deserved to be shown again and again and again.

[GSH]

It's not an article, it's a simulation run on a daily basis... 2 games are unlikely to change the outcome in a significant manner at this stage.

Well I, for one, am glad to know those two beat-downs of Cleveland and Chicago are meaningless.




It's not an article, it's projection matrix page that is updated DAILY.

Do people even click on links before opening their pie holes and looking like fools?


Ouch! Stop it! That stings.

[will_spurs]

Well I, for one, am glad to know those two beat-downs of Cleveland and Chicago are meaningless.

They aren't meaningless in the long run, but after 40+ games they are unlikely to suddenly bump the GSW's chance to win it all form 20% to 60%... that's just not the way it works. And statistical models have been designed exactly to be steady, unlike say Power Rankings where the flavor of the month is at the top.

Check the standings and you will see that these two epic beat-downs haven't changed much when it comes to point differential, which is still the best predictor for success. The Spurs are still 2 points over GSW, much like they have been in the last couple of months.

[Galileo]

Someone jinxed the Spurs, they just fell below 50%.

:hang:hang

[DJR210]

Single greatest defensive play I've ever seen. Thought it deserved to be shown again and again and again.

That play won us the championship.. I ran out of my then apartment screaming my fucking head off was so crunk after that play

[will_spurs]

That play won us the championship.. I ran out of my then apartment screaming my fucking head off was so crunk after that play

I was certainly jumping on my couch at that point. Damn I really hate the ThunderRefs.