Donald Trump Is Really Unpopular With General Election Voters

[RandomGuy]

everal recent stories, like this one from the Washington Post’s Philip Rucker and Robert Costa (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/republicans-now-see-a-trump-cruz-race-with-time-for-a-shift-running-out/2016/01/15/9b5d91f0-bbb4-11e5-b682-4bb4dd403c7d_story.html), report that influential Republicans have become increasingly resigned to the prospect of Donald Trump as their nominee. One theme in these stories is that the GOP “donor class” seems to have persuaded itself that Trump might not be such a bad general election candidate.

On that point, the donor class is probably wrong.

It’s hard to say exactly how well (or poorly) Trump might fare as the Republican nominee. Partisanship is strong enough in the U.S. that even some of his most ardent detractors in the GOP would come around to support him were he the Republican candidate. Trump has some cunning political instincts, and might not hesitate to shift back to the center if he won the GOP nomination. A recession or a terror attack later this year could work in his favor.

But Trump would start at a disadvantage: Most Americans just really don’t like the guy.

Contra Rupert Murdoch’s assertion about Trump having crossover appeal, Trump is extraordinarily unpopular with independent voters and Democrats. Gallup polling conducted over the past six weeks found Trump with a -27-percentage-point net favorability rating among independent voters, and a -70-point net rating among Democrats; both marks are easily the worst in the GOP field. (Trump also has less-than-spectacular favorable ratings among his fellow Republicans.)
Rest of article:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trump-is-really-unpopular-with-general-election-voters/

https://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/djxlrdtxkka5dyre_19ha.png?w=575


But that Cruz might be a bad nominee doesn’t make Trump a good one. It’s a perplexing that Republican elites have resigned to nominating either Trump or Cruz when nine other candidates are running and no one has voted yet.

[rmt]

One wonders with such unfavorable ratings, who exactly is voting for Trump for him to have big leads in so many polls? He's 3rd to last among repubs, dead last among independents and democrats. Are the polls all wrong?

[boutons_deux]

One wonders with such unfavorable ratings, who exactly is voting for Trump for him to have big leads in so many polls? He's 3rd to last among repubs, dead last among independents and democrats. Are the polls all wrong?

negative favorability doesn't mean they won't vote for a candidate.

Earlier this, people said they supported Trump but didn't want him as Pres.

Pollsters complain that fewer and fewer people are responding to polls, which they say makes their poll results unreliable.

[TheSanityAnnex]

negative favorability doesn't mean they won't vote for a candidate.

Earlier this, people said they supported Trump but didn't want him as Pres.

Pollsters complain that fewer and fewer people are responding to polls, which they say makes their poll results unreliable.

Yet you are so quick to point out poll results that you like.

[Nbadan]

One wonders with such unfavorable ratings, who exactly is voting for Trump for him to have big leads in so many polls? He's 3rd to last among repubs, dead last among independents and democrats. Are the polls all wrong?

The polls aren't wrong...Trump is the rights answer to Bernie Sanders though....Hillary is a whole new ball game...

[Winehole23]

Trump is the rights answer to Bernie Sanders though

is he?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-5565.html

[Winehole23]

One wonders with such unfavorable ratings, who exactly is voting for Trump for him to have big leads in so many polls? He's 3rd to last among repubs, dead last among independents and democrats. Are the polls all wrong?they mean much less now. once the primaries start, we start getting closer to likely voters and possibly accurate polling information about their preferences.

[spankadelphia]

The real question is: where are all the Hillary supporters? I have yet to meet one in the flesh. And I know lots of libs. They ALL want Sanders.

[Winehole23]

HRC has a glass jaw. it showed in 2008.

[DarrinS]

Trump
Cruz
Hillary
Bernie


Shitty choices, tbh

[boutons_deux]

HRC has a glass jaw. it showed in 2008.

She, Slick Willy, and her PAC(s) are going really nasty on Bernie, now that he's up several points in IA, romping in NH.

[baseline bum]

Trump
Cruz
Hillary
Bernie


Shitty choices, tbh

This fucking election, I just want all their planes to crash into each other.

[Pelicans78]

Rubio will eventually make his move beginning in Florida. He's trying to keep his head above water in the meantime.

[rmt]

Rubio will eventually make his move beginning in Florida. He's trying to keep his head above water in the meantime.

Rubio is getting trashed in Florida for not doing his job as its senator (being absent so much).

[DarrinS]

This fucking election, I just want all their planes to crash into each other.

:lol

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The GOP continues its clown car primary system. The entrance price tag is about $100m or so. Trump is just another oligarch but without the religion sheen like Romney.

I actually like Sanders. Outside of some district pragmatism which makes sense given demographic realities in the civil rights era, he seems principled. He definitely is good to his own constituents and respects their interests even when they go against his own. He's a good politician as that type goes.

It would be my hope that he wrecks the corporate social hierarchy we're all beholden to. I think he would try starting with the banks. He would push to get Citizen's United revoked. If he would criticize the single member district I would go pure fanboi.

I can vote for that. I'm voting in the democratic primary this year. Had initially thought to vote in the GOP as I do most years but it's not often that a candidate's rallying cries fall in line with mine own.

[clambake]

The GOP continues its clown car primary system. The entrance price tag is about $100m or so. Trump is just another oligarch but without the religion sheen like Romney.

I actually like Sanders. Outside of some district pragmatism which makes sense given demographic realities in the civil rights era, he seems principled. He definitely is good to his own constituents and respects their interests even when they go against his own. He's a good politician as that type goes.

It would be my hope that he wrecks the corporate social hierarchy we're all beholden to. I think he would try starting with the banks. He would push to get Citizen's United revoked. If he would criticize the single member district I would go pure fanboi.

I can vote for that. I'm voting in the democratic primary this year. Had initially thought to vote in the GOP as I do most years but it's not often that a candidate's rallying cries fall in line with mine own.

he does that and he'll get killed. literally.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

he does that and he'll get killed. literally.

the position he is going for has a lot of unknowns. he'd shake up the justice and treasury departments. maybe they turn on him. it's been speculated on the evils of that happening in fiction a lot.

in practice most people leave in a brain drain to lobby.

[Dirk Oneanddoneski]

You must've missed the poll by the democrat pollster showing Trump taking 20% of dems


The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they'd cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they'd vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are "100 percent sure" of switching than the Republicans.

When the firmed showed respondents the Trump ad, and assessed their responses to each moment of it, it found "the primary messages of Trump's ad resonated more than Democratic elites would hope."

About 25 percent of Democrats "agree completely" that it raises some good point, with an additional 19 percent agreeing at least "somewhat."

Mercury CEO Ron Howard, a Democrat whose firm works for candidates in both parties and corporate clients, concedes, "We expected Trump's first campaign spot to strongly appeal to Republican Trump supporters, with little impact – or in fact negative impact – on Democratic or independent voters."