HarlemHeat37
02-14-2016, 09:52 AM
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-impact-of-every-nba-all-star-ranked/
Method:
There are extremely complicated versions of adjusted plus-minus that adjust for every single player on the floor and end up giving you results that are interesting and comprehensive in some sense but are somewhat opaque. I’m going to keep it a bit simpler. I’m going to start with each player who made the All-Star team. If he had one or more teammate who also made the All-Star Game, I’ll compare how his team did with each combination of the players: that is, with neither player on the floor, with both players on the floor, and with each player on the floor without the other. If a player was the only one from his team to make the game, I used ESPN’s RPM-based estimation of wins added to pick his most important teammate and did the same (and in the case of the Warriors, who have three All-Stars, I did a more complicated version of the same). Then for a rough estimate of the player’s value — which I’ve called “Two-way WOWY impact” below — I averaged the impact he had by himself (versus neither him nor his teammate in the game) and the impact he had with his teammate (versus just his teammate). In other words, this gives equal weight to how much the player improves his team with and without his teammates’ help.
Plus charts.
Admittedly, some players get really jobbed by this (like virtually anyone on the San Antonio Spurs), and some players were fortunate to have a flattering teammate pairing.
24. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, San Antonio Spurs (Selected by coaches)
Real Plus-Minus 0.42, RPM Wins: +3.1
Compared to: Kawhi Leonard (see below)
Two-way WOWY impact: -6.3 points per 100 possessions
The Spurs are a tricky case because they are so good from top to bottom, making Aldridge’s place at the bottom of this list as much a reflection of his team’s strength as his own play. As Neil Paine has written, their bench would be one of the NBA’s best teams in its own right. And while Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard will represent them in the All-Star Game, stalwarts like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are still putting up huge stats (by RPM, the 39-year-old Duncan is the 10th-best player in basketball this year). Although the Spurs have been playing great with Aldridge on the floor, at least so far this season, they’ve been playing just as well without him. The chart comparing the relative impacts of him and Leonard is under Leonard’s entry below.
12. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs (Fans)
RPM 8.83, RPM Wins: +12.0
Compared to: Lamarcus Aldridge
Spurs with both: +11.3 | Leonard alone: +27.3 | Aldridge alone: +14 | Neither: +10.5
Two-way WOWY impact: +7.1 points per 100 possessions
The only surprise here is that Leonard is this low, yet he’s still projecting to improve the powerhouse Spurs by about 7 points per 100 possessions — remarkable for a team as talented and as balanced as this one.
Method:
There are extremely complicated versions of adjusted plus-minus that adjust for every single player on the floor and end up giving you results that are interesting and comprehensive in some sense but are somewhat opaque. I’m going to keep it a bit simpler. I’m going to start with each player who made the All-Star team. If he had one or more teammate who also made the All-Star Game, I’ll compare how his team did with each combination of the players: that is, with neither player on the floor, with both players on the floor, and with each player on the floor without the other. If a player was the only one from his team to make the game, I used ESPN’s RPM-based estimation of wins added to pick his most important teammate and did the same (and in the case of the Warriors, who have three All-Stars, I did a more complicated version of the same). Then for a rough estimate of the player’s value — which I’ve called “Two-way WOWY impact” below — I averaged the impact he had by himself (versus neither him nor his teammate in the game) and the impact he had with his teammate (versus just his teammate). In other words, this gives equal weight to how much the player improves his team with and without his teammates’ help.
Plus charts.
Admittedly, some players get really jobbed by this (like virtually anyone on the San Antonio Spurs), and some players were fortunate to have a flattering teammate pairing.
24. LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, San Antonio Spurs (Selected by coaches)
Real Plus-Minus 0.42, RPM Wins: +3.1
Compared to: Kawhi Leonard (see below)
Two-way WOWY impact: -6.3 points per 100 possessions
The Spurs are a tricky case because they are so good from top to bottom, making Aldridge’s place at the bottom of this list as much a reflection of his team’s strength as his own play. As Neil Paine has written, their bench would be one of the NBA’s best teams in its own right. And while Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard will represent them in the All-Star Game, stalwarts like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are still putting up huge stats (by RPM, the 39-year-old Duncan is the 10th-best player in basketball this year). Although the Spurs have been playing great with Aldridge on the floor, at least so far this season, they’ve been playing just as well without him. The chart comparing the relative impacts of him and Leonard is under Leonard’s entry below.
12. Kawhi Leonard, SF, San Antonio Spurs (Fans)
RPM 8.83, RPM Wins: +12.0
Compared to: Lamarcus Aldridge
Spurs with both: +11.3 | Leonard alone: +27.3 | Aldridge alone: +14 | Neither: +10.5
Two-way WOWY impact: +7.1 points per 100 possessions
The only surprise here is that Leonard is this low, yet he’s still projecting to improve the powerhouse Spurs by about 7 points per 100 possessions — remarkable for a team as talented and as balanced as this one.