29 games left - what record do the Spurs end up with

[spurs1990]

Wanted to survey the remaining 29 games to see where the Spurs end up historically for season wins.

As you may already know the most wins in Spurs franchise is 63 back in 2006.
I think that the spotlight shining on GS up above (Pop can still be under the radar) and OKC nipping at the heels from below will be factors in the Spurs both wanting and having to win more than 63 games.

To compare, there have been only 28 teams to win at least 63 games in a season
(8 teams have won more than 63 in the Duncan era)
The following reflects the number of teams and franchises in () to win 63 or more:
63+ wins - 28 teams (14 franchises)
64+ wins - 20 teams (12)
65+ wins - 17 teams (9)
66+ wins - 14 teams (9)
67+ wins - 10 teams (6)
68+ wins - 5 teams (4)
69+ wins - 3 teams (2)
72 wins - 1 team

So the Spurs can only lose 10 of 29 to best their franchise record.
Going 19-10 is highly likely if not definite.

10 games that most look like losses:
2/18 @ Clips (rust will be a factor - LA is playing well)
2/24 @ Utah (B2B after Sac)
2/27 @ Hou (always a tough matchup)
3/3 @ NO (B2B after home game vs tough Det team)
3/7 @ Indiana (1st night of B2B ...I'd still say 60/40 a win)
3/10 - 3/19 : 5 game home stand vs tough teams - Chi, OKC, Clips, Por, & GSW. There's likely one loss here if not two
3/26 @ OKC (B2B after home game vs Mem. A given L judging by history and opponent)
4/7 @ GS (assuming Spurs win on 3/19, GS will be highly motivated to hold serve here)
4/10 GS (at this stage GS may only have the Bulls record to be playing for, so it'll be up to how close OKC is for the 2nd seed. I'd say a loss here is likely)

Out of the 10 mentioned above, I think they will win 4. That combined with a couple WTF or resting players games, I will go with the final stretch finishing at 21-8.

The Spurs will be the 15th (16th?) team to win 66 games in NBA history, and the 10th franchise to reach that plateau.

[ElNono]

We're gonna rest a lot of guys as soon as we have the #2 seed locked up, IMO... including Kawhi and LMA... so it's difficult to really know...

Pop certainly doesn't care about those numbers...

[Cloud786]

67-15

[random21]

68-14.....I can see them going 23-6, the rest of the way...

[CosmicCowboy]

We're gonna rest a lot of guys as soon as we have the #2 seed locked up, IMO... including Kawhi and LMA... so it's difficult to really know...

Pop certainly doesn't care about those numbers...

This. Depends how safe #2 seed is.

[Silver&Black]

Add 29 more wins to our current total...

:wakeup

[TheDoctor]

68-14.....I can see them going 23-6, the rest of the way...

[SAGirl]

We have a good chance to break it but really it depends on Pop resting guys (and health, so this one could be a jinx thread.)

Manu coming back towards the end of the season could mean that there will be some value in playing the good guys for a few minutes, perhaps all you need before the development crew cleans up. All in all though regular season records don't matter, getting to the postseason playing well and healthy is key.

[apalisoc_9]

Good chance? Lol..the spurs will break that record for sure. Question is if they are going to win more than 65.

[Spurtacular]

Wanted to survey the remaining 29 games to see where the Spurs end up historically for season wins.

As you may already know the most wins in Spurs franchise is 63 back in 2006.
I think that the spotlight shining on GS up above (Pop can still be under the radar) and OKC nipping at the heels from below will be factors in the Spurs both wanting and having to win more than 63 games.

To compare, there have been only 28 teams to win at least 63 games in a season
(8 teams have won more than 63 in the Duncan era)
The following reflects the number of teams and franchises in () to win 63 or more:
63+ wins - 28 teams (14 franchises)
64+ wins - 20 teams (12)
65+ wins - 17 teams (9)
66+ wins - 14 teams (9)
67+ wins - 10 teams (6)
68+ wins - 5 teams (4)
69+ wins - 3 teams (2)
72 wins - 1 team

So the Spurs can only lose 10 of 29 to best their franchise record.
Going 19-10 is highly likely if not definite.

10 games that most look like losses:
2/18 @ Clips (rust will be a factor - LA is playing well)
2/24 @ Utah (B2B after Sac)
2/27 @ Hou (always a tough matchup)
3/3 @ NO (B2B after home game vs tough Det team)
3/7 @ Indiana (1st night of B2B ...I'd still say 60/40 a win)
3/10 - 3/19 : 5 game home stand vs tough teams - Chi, OKC, Clips, Por, & GSW. There's likely one loss here if not two
3/26 @ OKC (B2B after home game vs Mem. A given L judging by history and opponent)
4/7 @ GS (assuming Spurs win on 3/19, GS will be highly motivated to hold serve here)
4/10 GS (at this stage GS may only have the Bulls record to be playing for, so it'll be up to how close OKC is for the 2nd seed. I'd say a loss here is likely)

Out of the 10 mentioned above, I think they will win 4. That combined with a couple WTF or resting players games, I will go with the final stretch finishing at 21-8.

The Spurs will be the 15th (16th?) team to win 66 games in NBA history, and the 10th franchise to reach that plateau.

But why not shave a win or two off for an unexpected L in the gimme games; or do you think those other games are that much in the bag?

[HarlemHeat37]

There aren't many good teams in the NBA, this year, as anybody that has been paying attention knows..there are 3 great teams, 1 good team, about 4 above average teams that are good/great on some nights, and then a bunch of average to shitty teams..

The schedule doesn't have too many Ls on it remaining, if we're speaking strictly on paper..it's entirely dependent on who Pop rests, tbh..if he plays Kawhi and Aldridge, even after the Spurs clinch #2(he probably won't, but we'll see), they could push 70..

[Kawhitstorm]

Pelicans/Grizz/Chi/Rockets might be in complete tank mode after the trade deadline & Tim/Manu/Porker should be well rested for the stretch run. If Boris 2.0 makes an appearance then they can win 70.

They aren't losing to the Cripples without Blake/Rivers who have been Spurs killers & if the Jazz trade for Lawson it's going to fuck up their chemistry.

[Duncanforthree]

23-6 sounds about right

[spurs1990]

Nice to see there's a lot of optimism here. Getting near 70 will be a memorable accomplishment.


Good chance? Lol..the spurs will break that record for sure. Question is if they are going to win more than 65.

Keep in mind just 5 years ago the Spurs were sitting at 44-9 through 53 games, only 1 loss behind this years team.
They proceeded to finish 17-12 and actually suffered a 6 game losing streak in late March.

But yes your point stands as barring injury I don't think they could suffer that many losses especially since 2016 roster is a lot deeper than 2011.


But why not shave a win or two off for an unexpected L in the gimme games; or do you think those other games are that much in the bag?

I did incorporate two unexpected losses. Out of the 10 "tough" games, I picked them to go 4-6. Two more Ls could come from what you call sub-par teams.

[TheDoctor]

Nice to see there's a lot of optimism here. Getting near 70 will be a memorable accomplishment....

Contrary to popular belief and compared to other superficial fandom pages (Pounding the Cock, Project Spurs, etc), this board stays relatively cool and in good mood after loses. If you can separate fantasy from reality you can see who's really trolling and exaggerating things.

[look_at_g_shred]

It doesn't mean anything if we don't ring.

[SpursforSix]

It doesn't mean anything if we don't ring.

I doubt anyone disagrees with that. But it's really not the point of the thread.

I like the OPs numbers 66-16.

What do you have?

[look_at_g_shred]

I doubt anyone disagrees with that. But it's really not the point of the thread.

I like the OPs numbers 66-16.

What do you have?
63-19

[SpursforSix]

I need to amend mine to add 16 more wins.

[Agloco]

Keep in mind just 5 years ago the Spurs were sitting at 44-9 through 53 games, only 1 loss behind this years team. They proceeded to finish 17-12 and actually suffered a 6 game losing streak in late March.

Apples and Oranges come to mind.

[resistanze]

66-16

[Kawhitstorm]

66-16

Funny how the Worriers were 67-15 last season & it was supposed to be a once every 10 years type season for a Western Conference team.:lol

[cd021]

65-17:flag:

[Spurtacular]

I did incorporate two unexpected losses. Out of the 10 "tough" games, I picked them to go 4-6. Two more Ls could come from what you call sub-par teams.

Alocating losses from "tough" teams is not allocating losses from the expect win teams. Nay, that'd be its own separate statistical deviation in the model you presented.

[Killakobe81]

66-16

This

[spurs1990]

Okay so 7 games left and all but officially Spurs are locked into 2nd seed.

I didn't think they'd sweep the tough five game home stand, and only had one WTF loss (Charlotte), so they're ahead of my prediction of 66-16.

Here's how I see the season playing out (admittedly a drinking-the-koolaid leaning assessment)

4/2 Toronto - expecting a win due to everyone playing, reaction to the earlier L, and probably last home game they'll want to take seriously; Win Record (64-12)
4/5 @Utah - Jazz in heated battle for the POs. I see LMA & Leonard playing which gives us a decent shot at winning; team will be relatively fresh; Win (65-12)
4/7 @GS - assured L similar to the last road gm vs OK. Expect Aldridge/Leonard to rest here. Loss (65-13)
4/8 @Den - Thuggets currently hold 11th worst record and only 2 Ls from being 7th worst. A tanking game with the big 2 playing for SA means a win (66-13)
4/10 GS - Sitting on 39-0 at home. GS would have already broken the Bulls record the night before. GS rests, but who for Spurs?. 50/50 gm w/ odds to home team (67-13)
4/12 OK - Nothing to play for seeding wise for OKc, BUT they would love to be the one in forty and one, but believe Spurs won't rest entirely. 50/50 odds to home team (68-13)
4/13 @Dal - Mavs have the toughest remaining gms of the three 37-38 teams in 7-9th place. If the POs are truly on the line for them, it's a L. (68-14)

Accolades if this plays out:

1st (would get to 41 one day before GS) team EVER to go undefeated at home
1st (likely along w/ GS) team EVER to go entire season without consecutive losses
7th team in HISTORY to win at least 68 games in a season (along with GS)



Sets up an extremely monumental event with 74-8 GS team playing a 68-14 Spurs team in the playoffs, teams with the 1st and 7th best records of all time!

[GSH]

Sets up an extremely monumental event with 74-8 GS team playing a 68-14 Spurs team in the playoffs, teams with the 1st and 7th best records of all time!

That would be 142 regular season wins between two teams playing each other. If that series goes 7 games, it will be considered one of the all-time epic playoff series. If one team manages to win in 5 games, they would have to be considered one of the great teams of all time.

[PopTheGOAT]

That would be 142 regular season wins between two teams playing each other. If that series goes 7 games, it will be considered one of the all-time epic playoff series. If one team manages to win in 5 games, they would have to be considered one of the great teams of all time.
Probably THE greatest if in 5, tbh. It probably won't happen though

[Kawhitstorm]

4/12 OK - Nothing to play for seeding wise for OKc, BUT they would love to be the one in forty and one, but believe Spurs won't rest entirely. 50/50 odds to home team (68-13)

Actually, OKC has something to play for seeding wise: They are a half game behind the Cavs for HCA in the Finals.:lol

[PopTheGOAT]

Actually, OKC has something to play for seeding wise: They are a half game behind the Cavs for HCA in the Finals.:lol
Lol...if they get through the Spurs AND Warriors without HC, they don't need it against the Cavs.

[Kawhitstorm]

Lol...if they get through the Spurs AND Warriors without HC, they don't need it against the Cavs.

LeBron owns Durant so they would need ThudeRefs.:lol