Sabermetrics pioneer: There aren’t enough 'morons' to elect Trump

[ElNono]

Sabermetrics pioneer: There aren’t enough 'morons' to elect Trump

The father of Sabermetrics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabermetrics) is clearly not a fan of Donald Trump, and he is using his own statistical analysis to explain why the Republican front-runner will not be the 45th president of the United States.

In a post (http://www.billjamesonline.com/trump_as_in_rump/) published this week to his website titled "Trump, as in Rump," author Bill James, who is known as one of the pioneers of the analysis of baseball and in-game statistics, broke down his reasoning in a variety of ways.

"I don’t think that Trump can win, frankly, because I don’t think there are enough morons to elect him. A certain percentage of the American public is just morons; that’s the way it is," James wrote in one section. "When you divide the public in two then divide the voters in one of those halves among five candidates or more, a candidate can win by dominating the moron vote because it only takes about one-seventh of the total population to take the 'lead' under those circumstances."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/donald-trump-sabermetrics-bill-james-219731?lo=ap_d1

[DarrinS]

Like I said in the Trump thread, what he mostly has going for him is a large field of candidates.

[Pelicans78]

Like I said in the Trump thread, what he mostly has going for him is a large field of candidates.

He would beat Cruz head-to-head. Not really sure Rubio would get enough votes just with Kasich's voters. Most of Cruz's supporters would go to Trump. Those types of voters can't stand Rubio since he's dishonest about immigration and he's a special interest's candidate. Trump is just too formidable at this time. He's not just barely winning. He's crushing the field.

[DarrinS]

I'm hopeful that the theory stated in the OP is correct.

[DarrinS]

But if the choice is only Cruz or Trump? Bleh

[clambake]

go trump go

[rmt]

But in a general election situation, James posited, "when you’re talking about needing 51 percent of the whole population

Maybe the author needs a lesson in the electoral college.

[boutons_deux]

Donald Trump Supporters Are Even Scarier Than You Think. These Numbers Prove It.

20 percent of Trump's base disagree with the freeing of slaves after the Civil War,

a staggering 70 percent would still like to see the Confederate flag flying above official grounds in their states.

One-third of Trump's primary supporters in South Carolina favored "barring gays and lesbians from entering the country."

Another third of his supporters think Japanese internment was an appropriate measure.


How South Carolina Became Trump Country

66 percent (https://twitter.com/meetthepress/status/697198159416537090) of voters in the recent New Hampshire Republican primary supported banning Muslims from the United States—and they handed Donald Trump a resounding 20-point victory.

terrorism is the No. 1 concern of a majority of Republican voters, and Trump supporters have some ideas about what to do about it.

Two-thirds of Trump backers support (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/02/trump-clinton-still-have-big-sc-leads.html) a federal registry of Muslims; only 44 percent believe Islam should even be legal.

his Muslim wall is gonna be every bit as politically beneficial to him as his Mexican wall—and it has."

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/02/how-south-carolina-became-trump-country

America is no better than any other country, being full of paranoid, ignorant, xenophobic, racist assholes. aka, The Repug Base! :lol

[ElNono]

But in a general election situation, James posited, "when you’re talking about needing 51 percent of the whole population

Maybe the author needs a lesson in the electoral college.

This is true, however, it could get really dicey if there's a challenge like in year 2000 with the current SCOTUS makeup...

[Wild Cobra]

LOL...

I think Trump has a pretty good chance of winning if he is the republican nominee.

Which of the democrats ho might win the nomination have less baggage?

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he took a landslide in electoral votes like Reagan did.

[DMX7]

go trump go

:lobt2:

[Nbadan]

I think the article in the OP is correct, and polls prove it....let's see how fraudulent GOP voter suppresses the Clinton/Sanders vote...

[hater]

Who??? :lol

[spurraider21]

I think the article in the OP is correct, and polls prove it....let's see how fraudulent GOP voter suppresses the Clinton/Sanders vote...
yes. if the democrats dont win, its just a big conspiracy

[Wild Cobra]

yes. if the democrats dont win, its just a big conspiracy

It would have to be since they are one ones manipulating the election process.

[hater]

What's next? They gonna bring the plyometrics guy to say why trump has no chance? :lmao

[hater]

It would have to be since they are one ones manipulating the election process.

How?

[Aztecfan03]

Sabermetrics pioneer: There aren’t enough 'morons' to elect Trump

The father of Sabermetrics (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabermetrics) is clearly not a fan of Donald Trump, and he is using his own statistical analysis to explain why the Republican front-runner will not be the 45th president of the United States.

In a post (http://www.billjamesonline.com/trump_as_in_rump/) published this week to his website titled "Trump, as in Rump," author Bill James, who is known as one of the pioneers of the analysis of baseball and in-game statistics, broke down his reasoning in a variety of ways.

"I don’t think that Trump can win, frankly, because I don’t think there are enough morons to elect him. A certain percentage of the American public is just morons; that’s the way it is," James wrote in one section. "When you divide the public in two then divide the voters in one of those halves among five candidates or more, a candidate can win by dominating the moron vote because it only takes about one-seventh of the total population to take the 'lead' under those circumstances."

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/donald-trump-sabermetrics-bill-james-219731?lo=ap_d1

Yep. But it's something these Trumpanzees don't get.

[Th'Pusher]

Yep. But it's something these Trumpanzees don't get.
And you think Ted Cruz has a chance of sniffing victory in a general election?

[RandomGuy]

Like I said in the Trump thread, what he mostly has going for him is a large field of candidates.

Agreed. Opposition to him is split.

[CosmicCowboy]

The big question will be if the general disgust with Hillary will trump the distrust of Trump with moderates.

[Wild Cobra]

How?
It's like the first one to smell a fart.

They always claim elections fraud, that means they are the ones doing it.

[Wild Cobra]

The big question will be if the general disgust with Hillary will trump the distrust of Trump with moderates.
Trump is the only one with a shred of integrity between the two.

[clambake]

somebody took this clowns cookie.

[boutons_deux]

Trump is the only one with a shred of integrity between the two.

:lol

[Aztecfan03]

:lol
yep. neither have any shred of integrity.

[Spurminator]

Trump is the only one with a shred of integrity between the two.

What does that shred look like, specifically?

[Spurminator]

It's like the first one to smell a fart.

They always claim elections fraud, that means they are the ones doing it.

another entry in the "WC has to be a troll because no one is this stupid" database.

[clambake]

another entry in the "WC has to be a troll because no one is this stupid" database.

lol

[angrydude]

There is a very rational reason to vote for Trump.........to see what will happen.

The main reason people like him and Sanders whether they can express it or not is because they are perceived as uncontrollable by the establishment powers. People hate things the way they are now and want something.....anything new, even if there's the risk it may be worse.

It's the only way our modern domesticated country knows how to revolt.

[boutons_deux]

"People hate things the way they are now and want something"

Even with a Dem WH, "things" will not get better, will continue to get worse, with Repugs controlling Congress.

[Wild Cobra]

There is a very rational reason to vote for Trump.........to see what will happen.

The main reason people like him and Sanders whether they can express it or not is because they are perceived as uncontrollable by the establishment powers. People hate things the way they are now and want something.....anything new, even if there's the risk it may be worse.

It's the only way our modern domesticated country knows how to revolt.

I agree.

They are my two choices among the many.

In thinking of the thread OP message:


There aren’t enough 'morons' to elect Trump

I would agree. Very few morons will vote for Trump. All the morons are devoted to Hillary. Sanders and Trump don't need morons to get elected. But electing Hillary to the senate shows there sure are a lot of morons in the state of new York.

[baseline bum]

I agree.

They are my two choices among the many.

In thinking of the thread OP message:



I would agree. Very few morons will vote for Trump. All the morons are devoted to Hillary. Sanders and Trump don't need morons to get elected. But electing Hillary to the senate shows there sure are a lot of morons in the state of new York.

hurr durr let's go shoot some mexicans at the border

[Wild Cobra]

hurr durr let's go shoot some mexicans at the border

BYOB.... Bring your own bullets.