Bye Bye Rita, Hello Stan.

[MannyIsGod]

Nothing yet...

But give it a day..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

[MannyIsGod]

Well, at least the water hasn't started to boil yet.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005268ca.jpg

[mookie2001]

when do we start evacuations?

[sa_butta]

Here we go again.

[batman2883]

I told all my family and friends Rita would be nothing, and ill say it to yall this time...Stan will be nothing....nothing at all.....

[tlongII]

Done overreacting yet?

[MannyIsGod]

So, now Rita was nothing?

[sa_butta]

I knew it was not going to do anything to SA. I mean people were evacuating here, I dont think they would send them here if they thought it was going to flood here.

[mookie2001]

wasnt nothing for me but sweat

[mookie2001]

dam it was hot

[sa_butta]

So, now Rita was nothing?It was nothing to San Antonio, but obviously not "nothing" to people in LA and east Texas.

[batman2883]

Rita was nothing but a huge panic

[sa_butta]

Rita was nothing but a huge panichttp://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/09/26/rita/index.html

[MannyIsGod]

Obviously it wasn't going to hit a city over a hundred miles inland, but I wouldn't call it 'nothing'.

As far as you go mookie, you got lucky. Nothing else. Had that thing hit straight on Victoria, you and your smug (and dumb) ass would be at the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico.

This is what happens when people are told to evacuate and then nothing happens. Last year when Ivan was heading to New Orleans, they evacuated and it looked a lot like Houston this time around. Then a year later, Katrina came and the evacuations are a lot less effective because people start thinking like mookie and tlong.

Those people are always the shocked ones when a storm actually hits them.

[mookie2001]

naturally
i also would have left town

[Kip Fanatic]

I tell you what, I am so tired of this heat. I have never wanted to leave San Antonio on a permanent basis, but this weather is making me think twice.

[Spam]

I'm headin' to HEB right now to buy the water I took back on Saturday!

[Spurfect]

:shootme :hang :bang :cry :flipoff :cuss :makemyday :td

where's this one supposed to "hit"?

I'm NOT evacuating again!!

[batman2883]

Spurfect you win the prize for the most feminine avatar ive ever seen...

[Spurfect]

Spurfect you win the prize for the most feminine avatar ive ever seen...

lol is that good or bad? I love my avatar.. I wish I could get all the stars to light up like in the original gif, but after I resized it, only two of stars sparkled.. ah well, it's still cool :spin

[batman2883]

lol is that good or bad? I love my avatar.. I wish I could get all the stars to light up like in the original gif, but after I resized it, only two of stars sparkled.. ah well, it's still cool :spin

Its a good thing since you are a female i guess i meant more to say is you have a cool avatar without sounding fruity

[TheWriter]

I tell you what, I am so tired of this heat. I have never wanted to leave San Antonio on a permanent basis, but this weather is making me think twice.

Thank Rita for that. She's the bitch that is making the temp 15 degrees hotter than it should be.

[Trainwreck2100]

Stan will hit Mexico, i guarantee it.

[Manu20]

SEP 26, 2005 / 11:45 AM

REMNANTS OF RITA HEAD FOR GULF COAST
TROPICAL WAVE CARIBBEAN MAY BECOME DEPRESSION WITHIN NEXT 24 HOURS
AND STORM INTO GULF OF MEXICO BY END OF WEEK


Though still showing only a weak reflection in the mandatory level charts, the remnants of RITA, currently
embedded within a much larger upper level TROF are clearly moving southeast towards the Florida Panhandle
as evidenced on Radar. (see Below)

The GFS shows the system moving into the Gulf and developing some -- but there does not yet seem to be the
type of upper level support it would need to truly re-generate into a tropical storm. However, what isn't in Rita's favor
is quickly becoming in favor for a strong Tropical wave moving fairly quickly through the central Caribbean now,
and is showing some signs of better organization, with some slight but significant surface pressure falls in the
central Caribbean.

As mentioned yesterday evening, there are 2 large upper air TROFS from the central Atlantic extending
southwestward into the tropics. One is to the east of the developing Wave, on is to the west, over the far
NW Caribbean. Between the 2 systems, we end up with an generally anticyclonic flow, which favors
outflow aloft. What appears to be happening based on water vapor loop imagery is the formation of
a closed low aloft over the western Bahamas north of Cuba, while at the same time, there may be a
simultaneous developing of a high pressure system above the developing wave - and this is
crucial - independent of the larger scale antic-cyclonic flow across the tropical wave that is
occurring between the 2 major upper level TROFS. If there is a developing anti-cyclone within the waves
own circulation field, then the system will likely develop into a tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours.

On the latest Visible image loop there are hints of a broad low level circulation trying to form near 14N/73W.
In general the entire disturbance is heading WNW at 15Kts, and will likely be about 100-200 miles south of
Jamaica by Tuesday morning assuming it does in fact develop by then into a a tropical depression.

As it moves northwest - towards the far NW Caribbean and Yucatan Channel by Thursday -- conditions
aloft are forecast to become more favorable for development, and a we could have the next tropical storm
of the season by that that time. The speed of development will depend a lot on whether the system is in
fact developing it's own upper level outflow pattern.

The next update on this system - and if need be, the remnants of Rita, will be tomorrow morning - unless
conditions warrant an update earlier. IOW - if the system system develops into a a tropical depression
sooner rather than later)

The 12Z model runs -- very few were run for this system -- though if it continues to develop, this evening
we will se the normal complement of models show the system tracking northwestward - with 22 models
moving it towards the northwest Caribbean, and 3 others, over Jamaica in 36 hours (early Tuesday evening).

As the system is still very shallow, I prefer the BAMS and CLP5 models that keep the system south of Jamaica.
Either way, a period of heavy, gusty showers and squalls will buffet the Island on Tuesday. Conditions to
not seem favorable enough yet for rapid development, and the system should not attain Tropical Storm force
until it passes by Jamaica itself.

[Jelly]

Manny, your obsession with storms rivals Dan's obsession with Bush. :)

[spurs=bling]

Manny, your obsession with storms rivals Dan's obsession with Bush. :)


i wanna be a meteorologist

[MannyIsGod]

The latest GFS run develops the blob into TD 19 then Stan and brings her ashore in south texas in about 6-7 days.

You ready to do it all over again?

[SpursWoman]

The latest GFS run develops the blob into TD 19 then Stan and brings her ashore in south texas in about 6-7 days.

You ready to do it all over again?


We don't want to waste our time speculating, though....you should just find out when & where it will hit from Dan. :)

[MannyIsGod]

True, he has that super formula.

Dan, to save the day!

[travis2]

Oh and don't forget to ask Carlos Guerra who he thinks should evacuate...

[/political shot]

[Hook Dem]

Stan will hit Mexico, i guarantee it.
Is that like Peterson with the 49'ers guaranteeing a victory Sunday? :lol

[Ginofan]

Sweet, if it could just hold off reaching the coast till next Friday, I'll be in Port A for landfall!

[travis2]

Nothing yet...

But give it a day..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
That little fucker is definitely thinking about developing a center...

[MannyIsGod]

Wind readings from the area already indicate a low level circulation. If I was a betting man - and I am :lol - I'd say we have TD 19 by tonight and Stan by tomorrow night.

[TheAdmiral#50]

I just want a cold front already! It's so damn HOT!

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v661/payton34smith22/Gifavs/hoseshower6ov.gifhttp://img.photobucket.com/albums/v661/payton34smith22/Gifavs/windje1ls.gif

[Shelly]

The latest GFS run develops the blob into TD 19 then Stan and brings her ashore in south texas in about 6-7 days.

You ready to do it all over again?

But will people evacuate this time????

[Spurfect]

But will people evacuate this time????

if the evacuations are more organized this time? maybe. no way i'm going through THAT hell again.

oh yeah, and my car is still in the shop because of Rita. so I doubt I'll be driving it out again like that in 6-7 days

[SpursWoman]

Then you'd probably be better off moving to somewhere that wasn't suseptable to natural disasters.

:fro

[Ginofan]

The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamiaca, is still small and disorganized, and will not become a tropical depression today. The reconnaissance airplane scheduled to visit the area today will probably be cancelled. The disturbance has no surface circulation, surface pressures are not falling significantly, and there is about 10 knots of shear over it--which is marginal for tropical storm development. However, the largest burst of deep convection we've seen yet with this system began at about 4am EDT this morning, and the disturbance now has an expanding area of thunderstorms with cold tops that may signify the beginnings of an attempt to organize into a tropical depression. The disturbance has slowed its forward motion to about 10 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down even further over the next three days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday, and favor development.

I expect that we won't see a depression until late Wednesday, when the upper-level wind shear is forecast to relax significantly. I still give this disturbance a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm by Friday, when it should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula. The global computer models do not develop this system into a tropical storm, and are not much help in forecasting what will happen. The GFS model predicts that the system will cross the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week, but this forecast is too far in the future to give much credence to.


The strong Tropical Wave in the Caribbean has slowed down from 15Kts to under 10Kts, and in so doing, has become considerably more organized in it's overall structure and concentration of convection -- which has now taken on a circular pattern to the southeast of Jamaica. The very broad area of low pressure that dominated the central Caribbean yesterday, as confirmed by numerous surface reports, appears to have become better defined and is a closed circulation.

Satellite imagery and surface reports indicate the most likely surface circulation center is near 14.5N/75.1W. The very latest Buoy report from at 15N/75W indicated winds went from NE at midnight, to N by 8AM CDT, & just in the past hour, have swung around now to WSW indicating the passage of a closed low pressure center very close that location.

The models runs - for some 'unknown reason' have not been run since yesterday afternoon- but the GFS model continues to develop this system into a cyclone in the NW Caribbean by Thursday. The track shown by the GFS has it passing across the far northern end of the Yucatan now, and then reaching the Gulf of Mexico on Monday. As is typical of newly forming systems, and the GFS handling of them - each model run bounces back and forth on the track -- and without the aid of the specialized tropical storm models -- it's rather difficult to determine which track is most likely. Since the odds appear much higher today that the system will become a Depression -- once that happens, the various specialized models WILL become available again. At the moment, NHC indicates it may send a RECON out on WED to investigate the system. But I wouldn't be too surprised to see that moved up in time depending on the next 6 hours of satellite and surface reports.

I just found it kind of funny that they are contradicting on some points when they updated their blogs relatively at the same time.

[Manu20]

000
Abnt20 Knhc 271502
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1130 Am Edt Tue Sep 27 2005

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Vigorous Tropical Wave Centered A Couple Hundred Miles Southeast
Of Jamaica Is Producing Cloudiness And Thunderstorms Over Much Of
The Central Caribbean Sea. This System Has Become Better Organized
Today... And Upper-level Winds Have Also Become More Favorable For
A Tropical Depression To Develop During The Next Day Or So. An Air
Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Scheduled To
Investigate The System Tomorrow... If Necessary. Interests In
Jamaica... The Cayman Islands... And In The Northwestern Caribbean
Sea Should Closely Monitor The Progress Of This System Over The
Next Few Days As It Moves West-northwestward At About 10 Mph.

[travis2]

When your main sources of information are satellite photos and a few pressure readings from surface stations...there is still a great deal of interpretation that needs to be done. Different people see different things...or see things that aren't there.

I can't say which one is right...

[Manu20]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005

TXZ248>257-281100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
930 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S AT THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST TO NEAR 104 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HEAT INDEX
READINGS RANGING FROM 106 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S
AT THE COAST TO NEAR 104 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS RANGING FROM 106 TO 110
DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BACK TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MONDAY. RESIDENTS
AND MARINERS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE FOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND AFTERWARDS.

$$

[MannyIsGod]

Masters updates his posts throughout the day. He posted that way earlier than Gregory sent his stuff out. Masters has since updated his blog again to reflect the low pressure.

Also, they weren't contradicting on the devlopment and timeframe. Masters said tomorrow and Gregory didn't give a time frame just that as of today the depression was more likely to develop. I think you read it as he was saying it would develop today.

[travis2]

hey...looked at the loop lately?

[Ginofan]

Masters updates his posts throughout the day. He posted that way earlier than Gregory sent his stuff out. Masters has since updated his blog again to reflect the low pressure.

Also, they weren't contradicting on the devlopment and timeframe. Masters said tomorrow and Gregory didn't give a time frame just that as of today the depression was more likely to develop. I think you read it as he was saying it would develop today.

Yeah I just noticed the update...and I mostly confused as to why one had it disorganized and the other had it organizing when the updated posts times were 3:18GMT and 3:19GMT. But oh well.

Also Manny, do you have a link to that GFS run you were looking at?

[travis2]

Yeah I just noticed the update...and I mostly confused as to why one had it disorganized and the other had it organizing when the updated posts times were 3:18GMT and 3:19GMT. But oh well.

Also Manny, do you have a link to that GFS run you were looking at?

you can get there from here...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[Ginofan]

you can get there from here...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Yeah that's where I was at, but I can't find what's supposed to be Stan on the loop, I guess I'm blind? :lol I'm looking at this loop. (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml) Help?

[travis2]

Yeah that's where I was at, but I can't find what's supposed to be Stan on the loop, I guess I'm blind? :lol I'm looking at this loop. (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml) Help?

You might try the surface loop...the 06 loop does show something coming off the LA coast and wandering around a bit...

This far out, though, it's not going to be of much use for "Stan"...

[MannyIsGod]

Use the surface loop and follow the surface low. The GFS does not deepen the system so you won't find a vort max on the 500mb loop.

[Samr]

The irony of all this..... I take advanced speech from a lady named Rita Stanley.

She said her husband threatened to kick her out of the house.

[tw05baller]

:lol

[SpursWoman]

The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamiaca, is still small and has limited deep convection, but now has a well-defined circulation visible on satellite imagery. Winds measured at NOAA buoy 42058 located at 15N 85W also showed this circulation, as the winds at the buoy switched from east to west this morning when the disturbance passed by. Surface pressures did not falling significantly at the buoy when the disturbance passed by, so this is still a very weak low pressure area. Wind shear over the disturbance has fallen to the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. An upper-level anti-cyclone appears to be developing on top of the disturbance, which should greatly aid the upper-level outflow needed to take away all the air lifted to the upper atmosphere by the deep convection near the storm's center.

The disturbance has slowed its forward motion to about 10 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down even further over the next three days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday, and favor development. The reconnaissance airplane scheduled to visit the area today was cancelled, and has been rescheduled for Wednesday.

The upper-level wind shear is forecast to relax further during the next two days, and I expect this system to become Tropical Depression 19 on Wednesday--Thursday at the latest. The global computer models do not develop this system into a tropical storm, and are not much help in forecasting what will happen. The latest 12Z (8am EDT) run of the GFS model predicts that the system will move to a point just south of the western tip of Cuba on Friday, but dissipates the system after that.

[spurs=bling]

i'm gonna hurt somebody if that damn thing goes to galveston.

[hussker]

Stan...as in AFGHANI, UZBEKI, TURKMENI, KAZAHK...

Bush must have his magic Centipede ball out again directing another related STAN to hit the U.S....

HURRICANE = WMD?

Hmm...

[Manu20]

000
Abnt20 Knhc 280230
Twoat
Tropical Weather Outlook
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1030 Pm Edt Tue Sep 27 2005

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

A Tropical Wave Over The Central Caribbean Sea Is Producing
Cloudiness And A Few Thunderstorms Near Jamaica And Haiti... And
Over Adjacent Caribbean Waters. Even Though The Thunderstorm
Activity Has Greatly Decreased This Evening... Upper-level Winds
Are Expected To Become More Conducive For Development... And This
System Could Become A Tropical Depression During The Next Day Or
Two. An Air Force Reserve Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Is Scheduled
To Investigate This System Tomorrow... If Necessary. Interests In
The Northwestern Caribbean Sea And Adjacent Land Areas Should
Closely Monitor The Progress Of This System During The Next Few
Days As It Moves West-northwestward At 10 To 15 Mph.

[MannyIsGod]

The Diurnal cycle should allow for convection to develop overnight.

[Solid D]

I told all my family and friends Rita would be nothing, and ill say it to yall this time...Stan will be nothing....nothing at all.....

Another quality post. Unless you are living in your car and doing bodily functions outside, which may be the case, I don't know how you can think you were "right" about Rita.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/09/27/rita.victims.ap/index.html

Victims living 'like cavemen' after Rita
Residents still waiting for electricity, gasoline, water
Tuesday, September 27, 2005; Posted: 10:31 p.m. EDT (02:31 GMT)

A storm-damaged home in Port Sulphur, Louisiana, bears a message of resilience Tuesday.
Gallery: Rita's wrath

Map: Tracking Rita

• Rita leaves cattle stranded
• On The Scene: Reporters' blog
• Interactive: Landfall
SPECIAL REPORT

• Interactive: Safety Tips
• Gallery: Top 10 worst hurricanes
• Flash: How hurricanes form
• Gallery: Saffir-Simpson scale
• Special ReportYOUR E-MAIL ALERTS

Texas
Louisiana
Storm
or Create Your Own
Manage Alerts | What Is This? PORT ARTHUR, Texas (AP) -- Nearly four days after Hurricane Rita hit, many of the storm's sweltering victims along the Texas Gulf Coast were still waiting for electricity, gasoline, water and other relief Tuesday, prompting one top emergency official to complain that people are "living like cavemen."

In the hard-hit refinery towns of Port Arthur and Beaumont, crews struggled to cross debris-clogged streets to deliver generators and water to people stranded by Rita. They predicted it could be a month before power is restored, and said water and sewer systems could not function until more generators arrived.
Red tape was also blamed for the delays. (See video on grim situation on Gulf Coast -- 6:12)

Port Arthur Mayor Oscar Ortiz, whose own home was destroyed by fire after the hurricane, said "we've had 101 promises" for aid, "but it's all bureaucracy." He and other officials gathered at a hotel-turned-command center, where a dirty American flag found among hurricane debris was hung on the wall.

John Owens, emergency management coordinator and deputy police chief in the town of 57,000, said pleas for state and federal relief were met with requests for paperwork.

"We have been living like cavemen, sleeping in cars, doing bodily functions outside," he said.

Temperatures climbed into the upper 90s, and officials worried that swarms of mosquitoes might spread disease.

The White House on Tuesday said President Bush had extended complete federal funding for debris removal and other government assistance through October 27.

In Beaumont, state officials briefed Bush and Texas Gov. Rick Perry on relief efforts. Perry later visited Port Arthur, where local officials said it could be up to three to five days before people could return and three to five weeks before power is restored.

"There's always going to be those discombobulations, but the fact is, everyone is doing everything possible to restore power back to this area," Perry said.

About 476,000 people remained without electricity in Texas, in addition to around 285,000 in Louisiana. About 15,000 out-of-state utility workers were being brought to the region to help restore power.
Residents of some hard-hit towns were allowed to check on their homes but were not allowed to stay because of a lack of generators and ice.

About 2,000 Port Arthur residents who stayed through the storm were advised to find other places to live until utilities are restored. Ortiz said it could be two weeks before people are allowed back into Port Arthur.

After seeing a swarm of ravenous mosquitoes around his storm-battered home in Vidor, Harry Smith and his family decided to leave. They hitchhiked 10 miles to an emergency staging area and got on a bus to San Antonio.

"It can't be any worse than here," said Smith, 49, a pipefitter. "This is the worst storm I've seen in the 46 years I've lived here."

In Louisiana, Calcasieu Parish Police Jury President Hal McMillin said residents who come back would be without air conditioning, and risk insect bites and the mosquito-borne West Nile virus. A mandatory evacuation remained in effect for 10 southwestern Louisiana parishes.

"There's a good chance we could have an outbreak or something," McMillin said.

There were some signs of hope. In a Port Arthur neighborhood not far from a grocery store that reeked of rotten food, three Federal Emergency Management Agency semitrailers delivered ice, ready-to-eat meals and water.

"Without these trucks here, I don't think we would have made it," said Lee Smith, 50.

In Orange, people converged in cars and trucks outside a shopping strip for water, food and ice supplied by the private disaster group the Compassion Alliance.

"I know it's going to take some time, but we really appreciate this," Dorothy Landry, 66, said after waiting in the line. "I can't thank them enough."

Copyright 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

[Hook Dem]

I told all my family and friends Rita would be nothing, and ill say it to yall this time...Stan will be nothing....nothing at all.....
Just another case of a misinformed person spouting off for personal gain.

[CosmicCowboy]

Posted By: JeffMasters at 1:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Updated: 1:44 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamaica, is struggling this morning. The amount of deep convection has decreased considerably since yesterday afternoon, and appears in small irregular patches around the weak circulation center. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area today but will be cancelled unless the disturbance shows some dramatic development in the next few hours. There is a small possibility of this happening, as the convection has made a bit of a comeback since 2am EDT when there was almost none. The environment for development still seems fair to good. Wind shear over the disturbance remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. This wind shear is forecast to decrease the next two days, and I still expect we will see this system become Tropical Depression 19 by Friday.

The disturbance has speeded up its forward motion to about 13 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down over the next few days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday night. The BAMM and GFS models both forecast that the system will then cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This seems reasonable, given the strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico. Given the disturbance's current lack of organization and this expected track, the chances of this system growing into a hurricane that hits the U.S. are probably less than 10%.

[CosmicCowboy]

n addition, the NHC did run a few of the specialized tropical cyclone forecast models earlier
today and again this evening (see below).

BUT -- looking at the latest trends on water vapor imagery, there is dry air and very possibly some increased
westerly shears expected to reach into the northwest Caribbean over the next few days. The 00Z GFS no longer
really develops the system, instead opting for a broad area of lower pressure and 'wet weather'. I'm now of the
belief that unless the system develops into a Tropical Depression SOON -- and a Tropical storm
by Thursday -- it may not do either at all!

The reasoning for this is that tropical storms/hurricanes tend to develop a self -sustaining environment -- which
will only then, IMHO, be sufficient to fend off the overall weather pattern now being predicted by the global models.
So if the system doesn't manage to develop into a storm within 48 hours, the predicted synoptic scale pattern may very
well prevent it from doing so

This kind of reminds me of the 'system' back in mid August that looked so promising to develop into a Hurricane just
northeast of Puerto Rico, and then just failed completely as shear from nearby upper level cyclones inhibited any
further development. Although, a week later it suddenly started to develop -- and ended up becoming a storm
named Katrina. (DO NOT mis-interpret what I just said -- this is NO Katrina -- I'm really just referring to how
so many systems' that 'look' on the verge of intensifying -- suddenly end up falling apart.)

Unless there is a major development, the next full update will be in the late afternoon Wednesday.



Steve Gregory
WeatherInsite

[Spurfect]

Posted By: JeffMasters at 1:02 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
Updated: 1:44 PM GMT on September 28, 2005
The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamaica, is struggling this morning. The amount of deep convection has decreased considerably since yesterday afternoon, and appears in small irregular patches around the weak circulation center. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area today but will be cancelled unless the disturbance shows some dramatic development in the next few hours. There is a small possibility of this happening, as the convection has made a bit of a comeback since 2am EDT when there was almost none. The environment for development still seems fair to good. Wind shear over the disturbance remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. This wind shear is forecast to decrease the next two days, and I still expect we will see this system become Tropical Depression 19 by Friday.

The disturbance has speeded up its forward motion to about 13 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down over the next few days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday night. The BAMM and GFS models both forecast that the system will then cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This seems reasonable, given the strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico. Given the disturbance's current lack of organization and this expected track, the chances of this system growing into a hurricane that hits the U.S. are probably less than 10%.

Yay!! :elephant

[Ishta]

Anyone know what the latest is on this yet?

[tlongII]

evacuate! Quick!

[Ishta]

evacuate! Quick!
:rolleyes he wants to loot:lol

[MannyIsGod]

It is right on the verge of being a tropical depression, but it hasn't quite made the jump yet.

[MannyIsGod]

Also, the center is much farther south today. So, I really think the chances of it moving into the Gulf have gone down dramaticaly because of that.

[Manu20]

The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean sea, southwest of Jamaica, is now strengthening. The amount of deep convection has increased considerably since this morning, and this system now appears well on its way to becoming Tropical Depression 19 by tomorrow. A reconnaissance airplane is scheduled to visit the area Thursday morning at 8 am EDT.

Wind shear over the disturbance remains in the 5 - 10 knot range, which is in the slightly to moderately favorable range for tropical storm development. This wind shear is forecast to decrease the next two days. Upper level outflow channels have opened to the northeast and southwest, and a small upper-level anticyclone is over the system, helping ventilate the air pushed to the upper atmosphere by the strong updrafts in the storm's deep convection.

The disturbance is moving at about 13 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down over the next few days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday night. None of the computer forecast models develop the system, so their tracks of the disturbance are dubious. The GFS model takes the disturbance across western Cuba on Saturday. The BAMM model takes the system across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. This seems more reasonable, given the strong ridge of high pressure developing over the Gulf of Mexico.

[Manu20]

A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean is a real problem. Models all want a much more southern path through the Yucatan with a system that is behind the feature near Jamaica. Suffice it to say, our disturbed weather has started in the Caribbean, but the final result in the Gulf (is it Texas or Mexico? That's tough to say). The idea is two developments, one for western Gulf and the other from northeast of Puerto Rico that heads for the Southeast coast

[MannyIsGod]

The 18z NAM shows Stan developing then moving into the Yucatan as a Tropical Storm. But it is doing so super slowly. The next model runs should be interesting.

[Manu20]

September 29, 2005 / 8:45 PM CDT

Today's RECON was unable to confirm that the low pressure system associated with the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean
has reached depression intensity -- or an overall structure they feel warrants calling this a depression. The NHC is still
planning another RECON tomorrow in case the system does manage to intensify and get better organized, overnight.

The lowest pressure the crew could find was 1009mb, and winds around the low pressure center averaged about 15Kts near
the surface. The surface center is is located near 17N/88.0W, or about 280NM east of Belize, and 280NM SE of Cozumel.
But it continues to be the same story in regards to the convection which persists well to the north and east of the low level
circulation center - and this is prohibiting the system from developing.

Last nights diurnal drop off of in convection was far less than the night before when it virtually vanished. The strongest
convection continues well to be over the Cayman Island and offshore of Cuba, extending southward for about 200 miles. The
most intense convection coincides, of course, with the major divergent flow aloft, associated with the large upper level
anticyclone centered between the Cayman Islands and Cuba. As I mentioned yesterday, unless the system managed to become
a depression today, and a storm by tomorrow -- I didn't think it ever would. I pretty much remained convinced of this -- with
the window of opportunity ending tomorrow.

Ultimately I expect this system to move westward across the Yucatan and eventually out into the east Pacific. - NOT the Gulf
of Mexico -- by Sunday. This is being forecast by the GFS and the NOGAPS models, and has now shown good continuity on
this track for the last 2 days. Wind gusts to 35mph in heavy squalls should be the worst of it from Cozumel/Cancun
southward to Belize -- with the showers and isolated thunderstorms reaching the coast by Friday night. After that, the GFS
spins the system up into a hurricane in a week, which then is forecast to move northwards towards Baja in about 10
days -- following on the heels of Tropical Storm Otis which is about to head for Baja in the next few days (see below).
It is VERY common for many tropical waves that do not manage to develop into cyclones in the Atlantic basin, to
ultimately cross central America and end up becoming tropical cyclones in the east Pacific.

What is rather interesting is the forecast development of a widespread and deep layered flow the lower tropics towards the
southeastern portion of the U.S. This is in response to the subtropical ridge moving eastward a bit and unusually far to the
north by mid week. A major moisture stream - with of course several 'vorticies' likely to be embedded within it, heading for
the U.S. The upper level wind pattern (200mb) is not forecast to be in a position or orientation, that would favor a tropical
storm to form. The GFS has been trying to create a system -- the NOGAPS hasn't -- and in this case, I'm leaning towards the
NOGAPS solution of just having a lot of 'wet and tropical shower' type weather dominate the entire southeast U.S.. If a
depression manages to form -- I doubt it would be much more than that. Too much wind shear, cooler ocean temps -- and too
far out in time :-)

And for those who like weather novelties -- the annual end of summer Monsoonal flow over the desert southwest and western
Mexico should see tropical storm Otis move across the Baja over the weekend, weakening to a depression by the time it
reaches the coast. The GFS brings the moisture from this system northward into the deserts of Arizona by the middle of
early next week -- and could kick up some rather impressive dust and rain storms could hit the area.

I'll have another update tomorrow afternoon - unless the system in the Caribbean should suddenly decide to intensify.

[Manu20]

The Hurricane center released this special advisory at 3 pm EDT today:

"Data from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area of disturbed weather located between the Cayman Islands and Honduras indicate that the system remains disorganized and that a tropical depression has not formed. A large area of light and variable winds with a minimum pressure of 1009 mb...Or 29.80 inches... was detected about 170 miles southwest of Grand Cayman island. However... there is no thunderstorm activity collocated with the area of lowest pressure."

So, we will have to wait another day to see if this system will make up its mind whether or not it wants to be Stan the Man or Mr. Wimpy Tropical Blob. I still believe it will form into a tropical depression, but it's looking dicey for it to be anything more than a depression by the time it encounters the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Once Stan/Mr. Wimpy Tropical Blob crosses the Yucatan, it may have new wind shear and dry air to overcome. If the system does manage to develop, the Mexican Gulf Coast or Texas look like the most likely targets.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm looking at the runs and I don't know wtf Gregory is taking about. The GFS splits the low into 2 sections and one section definetly comes into the Gulf. The local NWS guys keep mentioning this as the tropical wave that will come ashore in Texas early next week.

The system is getting better organized tonight. The NAM still wants to develop it into at least a depression but the GFS isn't so sure yet. I don't know what the hell it is going to do, but I can't see it making it up to hurricane status with the Yucatan so damn close.

Interestingly enough, Gregory just sent out an email about the storm:



Last night's diurnal drop off of in convection was far less than the night before when it virtually vanished. The strongest
convection continues well to be over the Cayman Island and offshore of Cuba, extending southward for about 200 miles. The
most intense convection coincides, of course, with the major divergent flow aloft, associated with the large upper level
anticyclone centered between the Cayman Islands and Cuba. As I mentioned yesterday, unless the system managed to become
a depression soon, and a storm by Friday afternoon, - I don't think it ever would. I pretty much remained convinced of this -- with
the window of opportunity ending in about 24 hours.

That said: latest imagery this evening show a marked INCREASE in convection much closer to the low level
center - in stark contrast to last the prior two nights. Pressures have fallen at a the few locations data is
available from, and the buoy about 160NM NW of the system has shown a some gusts near 20mph now, and the 1 ft seas
are now 2-3ft all in the last 3 hours.

Ultimately I expect this system to move westward across the Yucatan and eventually out into the Gulf of Mexico --
by Sunday. The GFS is now picking up on the surface low movement. Wind gusts to 45mph in heavy squalls should be the worst of it from Cozumel/Cancun southward to north of Belize where showers & thunderstorms could produce wind gusts to 30mph -- with the showers and
thunderstorms reaching the coast by Friday night.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, the GFS is also generating about 3 storms out in the Atlantic over the next couple of weeks. I would imagine at least if not 2 of those would end up forming.

[Vashner]

Woah it's like 65 outside.. nice.. ahhh...

I wish I could stay up all night and get some taco breakfast with the cool snap..

I love my Texas...

[MannyIsGod]

Well, this damn low finally got it's shit together tonight. It probably won't be Stan though. Stan should be the storm out in the middle of the Atlantic. But it will probably at least be TD20.

[Hook Dem]

Posted By: JeffMasters at 3:13 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Updated: 3:16 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Tropical Depression 20
The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea continues with its daily cycle of ups and downs, and finally hit enough of an "up" today to be classified as Tropical Depression 20. The amount of deep convection has increased to the highest level that we've seen yet, and now covers most of the western Caribbean Sea. An upper level outflow channel has opened to the north, and one can see high cirrus clouds streaming out to the north from the center of the depression. A few spiral bands have formed, and surface pressures continue to fall. The center of the depression is near buoy 42056 about 100 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to investigate the system at 2 pm EDT afternoon.

The system is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula today and Sunday, so probably will not have time to strengthen into a tropical storm before then. Wind shear over the system is unchanged at 5 - 10 knots today, but after crossing the Yucatan, the shear is forecast to drop below 5 knots, and the system will have 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf. I expect landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, or perhaps a strong tropical storm, on the Mexican coast south of Brownsville on Tuesday.

[MannyIsGod]

It is TD20 as of this movie.

[MannyIsGod]

movie? I meant moment. Trying to do too many things at once but looks like Hook posted it as well anyhow.

[Hook Dem]

Posted By: SteveGregory at 3:35 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Updated: 7:01 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
OCTOBER 1, 2005 / 1:48 pM CDT

INITIAL RECON DATA FINDS CENTER NEAR 18.8N/86.3W

The Cyclone appears near stationary, and is intensifying...sustained winds at the buoy located 70 miles to NNE of center is reported sustained winds of
the 31mph, and gusts to 40mph. The NHC will likely officiually nbame the storm within the next hour or 2 - Stan.

Conditions favor additional intensification -- and with the system nearly stationary,over very high heat content water (SST is 86°F) Cozumel and adjacent areas may have a fairly strong tropical storm make landfall late tonight.

I'll have a full update late this afternoon.

Steve

[MannyIsGod]

The cyclone appears nearly stationary, and is intensifying...sustained winds at the buoy located 70 miles
to NNE of center is reported sustained winds of the 31mph, and gusts to 40mph. The NHC will likely
officially name the storm within the next hour or 2 - STAN. The RECON is still in progress, but it appears the
core vortex is about 40NM across, and MAY have a partial eyewall, although not likely.

Conditions favor additional intensification -- and with the system nearly stationary,over very high heat
content water (SST is 86°F) Cozumel and adjacent areas may have a fairly strong tropical storm make
landfall late tonight.

The 12Z GFS - indeed all the models -- did not properly initialize the cyclone, so we will have to wait till the
00Z (7PM CDT) major cycle run tonight before we can get any better guidance on the track and intensity
of the storm in the longer term. However, the most likely location for landfall of the storm next week is about
150 miles south of the Texas/Mexico border as a CAT 1 storm.

I'll have a brief update later this afternoon, and a more complete update at 10PM CDT tonight..

[MannyIsGod]

nevermind, i just read hook's last post. He's kicking my ass today! :lol

[Hook Dem]

nevermind, i just read hook's last post. He's kicking my ass today! :lol
Sorry Manny! I'll let you update. :lol

[Ginofan]

TD 19
Tropical Depression 19 is far out over the Atlantic Ocean, about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verdes Islands. The environment for strengthening is fair, and we will probably see this system become a tropical storm tonight. A hurricane seems unlikely, as this system is expected to move northwest or northward for the next five days into a region of increasing wind shear. It will be interesting to see if this storm or TD 20 wins the race to become Stan--loser gets the name Tammy. If they both get upgraded on the same advisory, how does NHC decide which storm gets which name? I'm not sure the problem has ever arisen, and I hope they do something scientific like play a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors to decide.
:lol

[MannyIsGod]

:lol Meteorologist humor.

[MannyIsGod]

Sorry Manny! I'll let you update. :lol
:lol

No way dude. You do it, I want to play guitar.

[Vashner]

Just make it F******ING RAIN!!!!

[spurschick]

This isn't tropical storm/hurricane related, but it is weather related, so I thought it would be best posted here...

I'm so frickin' happy that Friday's high is going to be 78º!!!
:elephant :elephant :elephant :elephant :elephant :elephant

[hussker]

UMMM...who cares? This is lame

[MannyIsGod]

UMMM...who cares? This is lame
Enough people care that there have been plenty of posts in here. See your ass out if you don't.

[Ginofan]

Not Stan related but, looks like we finally might get some rain today. It's pretty cloudy and gray outside right now.

[SpursWoman]

It drizzled just enough to remind me that I'm completely out of windshield wiper fluid in my car.


:fro

[CosmicCowboy]

The tropics today present a very complex picture, with many potential areas of danger for all residents along the Mexican and U.S. coast. Here's what's happening:

Tropical Storm Stan
Tropical Storm Stan is quickly re-organizing over waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The chances for continued intensification a are high, as Stan is over 30C waters and is positioned under a large anticyclone that will provide good outflow and wind shear values below 5 knots. Stan will probably be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast on Wednesday, and a Category 2 hurricane is not out of the question.

The forecast of a landfall in Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz on Wednesday has increased in confidence since yesterday, but is still uncertain. Stan is being driven westward at 10 mph by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will gradually weaken Tuesday as a weak trough of low pressure swings across the U.S., and Stan will slow down in response. All of the models are now forecasting that the ridge will remain strong enough to carry Stan all the way to the coast. However, there is still a distinct chance that Stan may stall just before the coast, or make landfall, then pop back out over the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensify. Stan may then remain in the Gulf many days, and may eventually move north and threaten the U.S.

Complicating the forecast is the fact that a concentrated area of cloudiness has developed on the Pacific Mexican coast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 100 miles south of the Gulf of Mexico. This area of disturbed weather has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later today or tomorrow. Storm-storm interactions among two tropical storms are not well understood, and the development of a new tropical depression on the other side of Mexico will make the current forecasts of Stan's motion Wednesday and beyond very dubious. And to complicate matters further, a non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to form over the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, potentially making a set of three storms that will all interact in unpredictable ways. One positive note about this development is that the upper-level winds associated with this new non-tropical low would bring significant wind shear and weaken Stan--if he is still there. If Stan is not there, at least one model (the UKMET) suggests that this non-tropical low would meander over the Gulf of Mexico for many days, and potentially acquire tropical characteristics and become a tropical storm.

The larger threat to the U.S.?
The greater threat to the U.S. may be the spinning area of intense thunderstorms about 300 miles to the east of the central Bahama Islands. This system is an upper-level low pressure system that is interacting with a surface trough of low pressure, and slowly making the transition from a cold-cored non-tropical low to a warm-cored tropical system. While the shear is a high 20 knots over the system today, the shear is expected to decrease to 10 knots tomorrow, accompanied by the formation of an anticyclone in the region. This system has the potential to become a tropical depression as early as Wednesday, as it moves slowly westward. Long range model projections indicate the Carolinas and possibly New England would be at risk from this system.

TD 21?
An low pressure system accompanied by a concentrated area of thunderstorms has developed this morning halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, at about 14N 38W. This system has some impressive spiral banding, and is a good bet to be Tropical Depression 21 later today. It is expected to move northward the next five days over open waters and not threaten any land areas.

Tropical Storm Otis
Tropical Storm Otis has decayed to a 40-mph tropical storm, and is forecast to remain just offshore Baja California and continue to weaken and eventually dissipate two days from now. Otis is not likely to cause any problems for Mexico or Arizona.

Jeff Masters

[MannyIsGod]

That front that comes through (the trof Masters speaks up) will hopefully push off the coast of Texas and basically prevent anything from coming shore here. The front keeps being pushed back to a later time by the models though, and if this continues we could see it never make it to us. I'm hoping like all hell for that not to happen. Temps in the 70s this weekend sounds fucking AWESOME.

[MannyIsGod]

Texas more than likely won't see anything anytime soon. However, Mexico is going to get hit by Stan and there may be other systems off the Atlantic and in the Gulf.

Gonna be nice and cool this weekend though!

[MannyIsGod]

Oh, and the day 7 on the GFS looks a lot like the kind of situation that causes a lot of flooding here. Something to keep an eye on.