Hurricane Rita Again Anyone?

[Nbadan]

At least some computer models are showing the Hurricane Rita could find a path back into the gulf by Wednesday

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr_images/2005/ar/UHAR_2.GIF

Accuweather.com (http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/storms.asp?ocean=atlantic&storm=Rita&imagetype=move)

[Nbadan]

That probability drops the further North the remnants of Rita go. No new tropical storm warning are expected till Wednesday

http://www.intellicast.com/WeatherImg/SatelliteLoop/hifloat5_None_anim.gif

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Dude, it would be absolutely ridiculous if that bitch pulled a 180 like that.

[MannyIsGod]

The upper level circulation is actually entering the Gulf again. But the likelyhood of any redevelopment is low. That would be some shit though.

If you want to read about a storm that did that, look up Hurricane Danny.

[Vashner]

Didn't Katrina rake over Florida then loop around?

[Nbadan]

The upper level circulation is actually entering the Gulf again. But the likelyhood of any redevelopment is low. That would be some shit though.

If you want to read about a storm that did that, look up Hurricane Danny.

I've been reading up on Hurricane Ivan (http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004H/IVAN/track.gif) which restruct TX as a tropical depression after coming around from the Atlantic.

Here (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir2-loop.html) is a great satellite image of the remnants of Rita in the gulf. Could she redevelop? The Hurricane center has officially stopped tracking Rita today. Their opinion is that the front will absorb Rita into non-existence.

[Hook Dem]

Yep...it is possible but highly unlikely.About 20 percent maybe.

[boutons]

Correct Manny, NHC says "Atlantic - Carib - Gulf of Mexico: There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time."

Which model was best in predicting Rita's path? UKMET?

[MannyIsGod]

They were all average. However, the GFS did show Rita forming and making landfall in Texas as early as the 13th. So, in that respect, the GFS was incredibly accurate.

[MannyIsGod]

Oh, and Rita is probably dead for good. But Stan is ready to go in the Carribean.

[MiNuS]

I don't believe any of the early models predicted Rita's path correctly.Corpus Christi,Houston,Galveston all panicked and it ended up there in the Texas & LA border.

[Hook Dem]

I don't believe any of the early models predicted Rita's path correctly.Corpus Christi,Houston,Galveston all panicked and it ended up there in the Texas & LA border.
I don't think it's such a bad thing that they panicked because the forecast kept changing with atmospheric conditions. Later in the period, the track became more defined. What if they had not reacted and the track took it right into them? Dumb shits for not leaving? Hindsight is always great for criticizing people.

[boutons]

But I remember all the models divergentlhy freaking out about at the Texarkana point (while finally converging on the landfall), sending Rita all over the map, because the jetstream was horizontal across the US-CA border and not dipping down to suck Rita northward as it did for Katrina, which is in 48 hours zipped into Canada. And now Rita is still not getting sucked north, but turning south again, which the models showed.

[MannyIsGod]

If you want a model to tell you 5 days out where the storm is going to hit within anything less than 500 miles you'd better be ready to be disapointed.

People who don't understand the complexities involved, and always get pissed when the NHC can't predict the future as well as Miss Cleo.

[Hook Dem]

If you want a model to tell you 5 days out where the storm is going to hit within anything less than 500 miles you'd better be ready to be disapointed.

People who don't understand the complexities involved, and always get pissed when the NHC can't predict the future as well as Miss Cleo.
You are absolutely right Manny! If high and low pressure systems would stay in place for that period of time, they would have a field day in forecasting.

[travis2]

Computer modeling is a science unto itself. If you've never been exposed to it, you have no idea of the complexity of a "reasonably accurate" grid model...or the ridiculous things that can bite you in the ass...

[FromWayDowntown]

Hey Manny, travis, and all of the other storm watchers:

It looks to my amateur eye that "Stan" is primed to push across the Yucatan. Now, I have no idea about the reliability of my source on this issue, but my weatherperson said early on that she thought it was unlikely that Rita would strike South Texas because the South Texas storms generally are those that enter the Gulf from the south. Two questions: (1) is she (in a very broad sense, I'm aware that things are always dynamic) right about the path of storms that strike South Texas?; and (2) is there any modeling to say where "Stan" is likely headed?

[travis2]

Hey Manny, travis, and all of the other storm watchers:

It looks to my amateur eye that "Stan" is primed to push across the Yucatan. Now, I have no idea about the reliability of my source on this issue, but my weatherperson said early on that she thought it was unlikely that Rita would strike South Texas because the South Texas storms generally are those that enter the Gulf from the south. Two questions: (1) is she (in a very broad sense, I'm aware that things are always dynamic) right about the path of storms that strike South Texas?; and (2) is there any modeling to say where "Stan" is likely headed?

We've been talking about it here: http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=25795

[MannyIsGod]

Storms travel based upon low and high pressure in the mid layers. They will go torwards the path of least resistance which is always going to be ares of lower pressure. Areas of higher pressure - or ridges - stear storms around them in a clockwise manner. If a hurricane is riding the southern edge of a ridge, it will travel westward.

The mid latitudes usually have what is known as the subtropical ridge in place. This covers parts of the United States and extends all around the Earth. In the summer the jet stream is north of this ridge. As disturbances come along the jet stream, they weaken and displace the ridge. These are what are known as trofs.

Storms are also drawn torwards the poles in a general fashion due to the spinning of the earth.

When you take all of those basic components of storm motion, you can form a picture of how storms usually move.

For the most part, when tropical cyclones form out in the Atlantic, they are on a westward path. As they move farther west, they encounter weak areas in the ridge or the ridge will be displaced. This allows the storms to move north. So before the storm gets to the United States, it is usually moved north.

For a storm to reach Texas straight from the East, it requires a ridge in place that isn't moved. Usually at some point, a trof will come along and weakn the ridge which turns the storm north. So, by far the majority of the storms that reach Texas come from south.

Now, onto Stan. The GFS has it moving into South Texas in about a week. Now, its anybodys guess just how accurate that is - and I would wager to say at this point not very - but it is a general indicator of what is going to happen.

Untill a cyclone actually forms and the models are able to have a firm grasp on it, there will be a lot of uncertainty with where it is going.

That being said, the general pattern in place right now supports bringing it into the western side of the Gulf, but a lot can change.