Why not fouling when you're up by three with less than 24 sec is a good idea.

[apalisoc_9]

Pop gets tons shit for not foulinga few years back when the spurs were up by 3. Still, it's always about eliminating negative possibilities.

Here's what could happen if just play defense

- opponet ties the game. This happens often.
-opponet ties the game and wins it with an extra free throw. This never happens though. Probability of happening 0.1%
-they miss the three and you rebound. 5 point game.
- Realisticly, the worse case here is a tie game

Here's what could happen if you foul

- The probability of a three and one is significantly increased.
-They make both free throw. You have to make both of yours so they dont get a shot a winning it in regulation
-They make first and intentionally miss the second to go for the win

In short, in this scenario you give the opposing team multiple ways to potentially win the game in very little time. The worst case that could happen in the first scenario is a tie though.

Discuss.

[spurraider21]

i agree. never liked giving free throws. make them earn their points. if you have the lead in the endgame, you have a decided advantage. why turn it into a FT contest?

[jyra]

Having more ways to win doesn't equate to having a higher chance of winning. Unless there is a comprehensive multi-year study out there that shows a siginificant trend either way it's really just more a belief/how it's taught kinda thing.

But personally I like fouling up three because it feels like you are more in control of the situation and not quite as prone to luck deciding things.

[exstatic]

i agree. never liked giving free throws. make them earn their points. if you have the lead in the endgame, you have a decided advantage. why turn it into a FT contest?

Manu 1-2
KL2 1-2

Yeah, not wanting any more of that shit. If we foul, it likely becomes a 1 point game. I think that after they foul us, it likely becomes a 2 point game, a net loss of a point, with them getting the ball for a last shot at home.

[Spurtacular]

If the Spurs had Jimmer, they could get away with it every time. Dude's automatic from the strike.

[Mnky]

I prefer not to foul as well. Make them drive and make a contested shot. No threes. If nothing else, make them earn a tie, don't give them an option to win. If you have reliable players who won't foul, it's the better option to me.

[100%duncan]

Only for the Spurs

[Chris]

Doc Rivers sure thinks it's the bee's knees.

[apalisoc_9]

It also makes a lot sense for teams that can defend the three ball well to just defend.

[Sean Cagney]

I hate fouling as well, just guard the three line as good as you can and make them earn it. I also hate when they concede and just give up the easy two as well, why not just play tough D and make them earn their points with the game on the line?

[Kawhitstorm]

You have to foul when they don't have any timeouts left b/c they can't advance the ball. Full-court press & concede a layup.

If the Spurs are up 3 against the Worriers: FOUL, FOUL, FOUL!!!:lol

Pop tried the foul while up 3 trick & it blew up in his face against the Pistons b/c he had Timmay inbound the ball who was 2013 Finals Turnobili status last season. If you can't inbound a ball under pressure then it's going to be a March Madness style choke job.:lol

[Budkin]

I hate fouling as well, just guard the three line as good as you can and make them earn it. I also hate when they concede and just give up the easy two as well, why not just play tough D and make them earn their points with the game on the line?

http://ww4.hdnux.com/photos/27/47/30/6190607/3/920x920.jpg

[Sean Cagney]

http://ww4.hdnux.com/photos/27/47/30/6190607/3/920x920.jpg

That obvioulsy is not what you want to do. If you foul there make sure they don't get a shot off and just all out wrap him up. Worst thing he could have done there. If Dirk passed by you fully just let him score the two there but Manu being the competitor he is had the brain fart and tried to block it.

[Obstructed_View]

That obvioulsy is not what you want to do. If you foul there make sure they don't get a shot off and just all out wrap him up. Worst thing he could have done there. If Dirk passed by you fully just let him score the two there but Manu being the competitor he is had the brain fart and tried to block it.
Pop played Duncan, Finley, Bowen, Parker and Ginobili the entire fourth quarter of that game to that point and ran the same lineup for all of overtime. Manu shouldn't be playing power forward in that situation.

[Sean Cagney]

Pop played Duncan, Finley, Bowen, Parker and Ginobili the entire fourth quarter of that game to that point and ran the same lineup for all of overtime. Manu shouldn't be playing power forward in that situation.
That is VERY true. Didn't they have Horry on the team still? Come on POP use your head on that one. I would not put Manu on Dirk, horrible move.

[Obstructed_View]

That is VERY true. Didn't they have Horry on the team still? Come on POP use your head on that one. I would not put Manu on Dirk, horrible move.

They had Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed, the center rotation for a 63-win team, and they had Fabricio Oberto who got nothing but garbage time in the regular season and ended up with more minutes in the Dallas series than either of the other centers.

Remember how people thought Dasagna Diop was a good NBA center? No, he was just good against Michael Finley. Horry and Duncan were constantly in foul trouble during that series.

[MultiTroll]

Up 6 with 24 and less and only a moronic move like Miami give away a game.
And yet in the Spur recent good win over the Warriors, up 6 CIA Popped did not have them cover Curry outside the arc. He got a great look and simply bricked.
Unreal to me the idiocy of letting him get a three point attempt period, let alone a great look.

[Obstructed_View]

Up 6 with 24 and less and only a moronic move like Miami give away a game.
And yet in the Spur recent good win over the Warriors, up 6 CIA Popped did not have them cover Curry outside the arc. He got a great look and simply bricked.
Unreal to me the idiocy of letting him get a three point attempt period, let alone a great look.

Yeah I don't really understand the philosophy of not fouling and then allowing open three pointers.

Small lineups in those situations piss me off as well. If your goal is not to give up good three point shots and offensive rebounds I'd argue that you're better off putting the five tallest guys on the floor in that situation than five small guys.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Manu 1-2
KL2 1-2

Yeah, not wanting any more of that shit. If we foul, it likely becomes a 1 point game. I think that after they foul us, it likely becomes a 2 point game, a net loss of a point, with them getting the ball for a last shot at home.
but the Heat had no timeouts, that's the critical difference

[mookie2001]

depends how much time is on the clock obviously, if it's between 3-5 seconds and you've got the opportunity for a clean foul go for it. Any less time and they're going to be shooting, making a foul too risky. Any more time and you're giving them free points with the clock stopped in a game where the ball could change hands several more times.

[Sean Cagney]

They had Rasho Nesterovic and Nazr Mohammed, the center rotation for a 63-win team, and they had Fabricio Oberto who got nothing but garbage time in the regular season and ended up with more minutes in the Dallas series than either of the other centers.

Remember how people thought Dasagna Diop was a good NBA center? No, he was just good against Michael Finley. Horry and Duncan were constantly in foul trouble during that series.Tim fouled out for Dirk stepping on his FOOT IN OT for Gods sakes.... That was one of the worst reffed series I have ever seen in my life and I am serious. I try not to blame the refs but even after a game Charles said NBA refs SUCK and I remember it well, what a horrible called series.

Pop went away from things that worked during the year in that series and went small, some times he out thinks himself IMO.

[Obstructed_View]

Tim fouled out for Dirk stepping on his FOOT IN OT for Gods sakes.... That was one of the worst reffed series I have ever seen in my life and I am serious. I try not to blame the refs but even after a game Charles said NBA refs SUCK and I remember it well, what a horrible called series.

Pop went away from things that worked during the year in that series and went small, some times he out thinks himself IMO.

I didn't think it was that game where Duncan fouled out for getting his foot stepped on, but it was a terrible call. Duncan had to freelance and reach to try to defend the rim by himself so he was in foul trouble the entire series. Another big next to him and that wouldn't have happened. Then when the bad call happened it wouldn't have really been that critical. The Mavericks thought they were better than they were because they beat a Spurs team that was running lineups they'd never run before. The result was getting destroyed by Dwyane Wade.

[SASdynasty!]

Solid post. Agreeing with more and more Apo takes.