7.8 quake in Ecuador, 6.0 quake in Tonga, we are so f....

[hater]

Hundreds killed in Ecuador tbqh.

Looks like our days are numbered folks.

[pgardn]

Since we have not got much time, can I have your car and all your available cash?
You won't need anything so thanks.

[in2deep]

RIPs

[in2deep]

jeez, just checked back and death toll is at 233, it was 70 just minutes ago

:cry

[in2deep]

I hear tons of the famous floating houses of Babahoyo are gone and sunk in the water :wow :wow

http://i1.trekearth.com/photos/13710/ecuador_024a.jpg

[Wild Cobra]

It natural in the ring of fire.

And people are worried about CO2...

[JMarkJohns]

One day the Pacific Northwest will be fucked.

Maybe soon...

[JMarkJohns]

For those with an attention span and who aren't reverse condescending enough to bypass the article simply because it was published in the New Yorker...

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

[Wild Cobra]

One day the Pacific Northwest will be fucked.

Maybe soon...

Just the coastline.

[Avante]

While I was in boot camp late (60's) in San Diego, we had an earthquake. We were all out sitting up against the barracks walls shining our boots. The Grinder is a huge slab of concrete where we march on, it's about the size of 4 football fields. As we sat there looking out across the Grinder it looked like a wave on the ocean made out of rubber, as it rolled like a tide coming in. Weirdest thing I ever saw, other than the fact there wasn't any damage done at all, no cracks, no nothing.

As ya know we have our quakes somewhere in Cali constantly, and someday.........................

[JMarkJohns]

Just the coastline.

If you think what the article discusses will only impact the coastline and not extend inland through valleys, channels, etc, you're sorely mistaken.

The event the article predicts would effectively end Northern California Oregon and Washington, while impacting Nevada, Idaho, and maybe even Arizona to the south depending how far south California is severed.

[Wild Cobra]

If you think what the article discusses will only impact the coastline and not extend inland through valleys, channels, etc, you're sorely mistaken.

The event the article predicts would effectively end Northern California Oregon and Washington, while impacting Nevada, Idaho, and maybe even Arizona to the south depending how far south California is severed.

The article is a joke.

1) New Yorker.

2) The author is far from an expert.

3) Very poorly sourced.

Some of the things said are flat out impossible. That much mass in so few minutes...

Yeh... right...

What are they high on?

[JMarkJohns]

Sure. Anti-Intelligence Condescension. Gotcha.

As a former journalist, that's one of the best investigative, best sourced, best researched articles I've ever read. Is it going to happen? Maybe. Maybe not. But to discredit it as you have is laughable.

[.G.]

ubxYYzYNP84

[.G.]

.

[Wild Cobra]

Sure. Anti-Intelligence Condescension. Gotcha.

As a former journalist, that's one of the best investigative, best sourced, best researched articles I've ever read. Is it going to happen? Maybe. Maybe not. But to discredit it as you have is laughable.

OK, I missed the source material. Will you point it out to me please?

[JMarkJohns]

Read the article.

[Reck]

I hear tons of the famous floating houses of Babahoyo are gone and sunk in the water :wow :wow

http://i1.trekearth.com/photos/13710/ecuador_024a.jpg

This was like asking for it.

Anything would have swept these badly constructed houses down. RIP

[hater]

Forgot about the 6.9 quake in Burma just days ago.

5 6.8+ quakes in a week. And the seismologist conclude its all a coincidence :lmao

[Wild Cobra]

What is crazy is the interpretation by the author that the land would slide upward upon the subduction zone, having as much movement as what would be needed to cause the damage claimed.

Chris is a respected scientist, but his worse case scenarios are being amplified by a journalist ignorant of science.

He warns of the big one only causing a 43 ft. tsusami:



Picture survivors, including injured, disabled and elderly people in a driving rain, attempting to negotiate a mile of rough, liquefied sandbar strewn with live power lines. Imagine their plight as 43-foot tsunami waves rip apart the Yaquina Bay Bridge, large ships and a liquefied-natural-gas tank -- turning them into projectiles.


from: OSU quake expert Chris Goldfinger warns his own school not to build in Newport's tsunami zone (http://www.oregonlive.com/education/index.ssf/2015/07/osu_quake_expert_chris_goldfin.html)

It would take one so much larger to cross the mountains into the Willamette Valley.

As for the inland faults breaking up and causing severe damage, that is always possible. But is isn't going to move no 6 ft. vertically and 30 to 100 feet horizontally in the process. The degree of which the plates would have to move for that I think would be a world level extinction event. When we have large earthquakes, vertical movement under the ocean causes tsunamis and horizontal movement does not. As noted above, Chis is only warning of a 43 ft. tsunami. Not one of the Hollywood tsunamis.

Here is an image from his works that indicate "the big one" is due:

http://www.opb.org/images/upload/c_limit,h_730,q_90,w_940/Cascadia_timeline_ch5kfo.jpg (http://www.opb.org/news/series/unprepared/what-is-a-90-earthquake-/)

He lead a 13 years study of which I skimmed over looking for the numbers in the New Porker, and didn't see them. The large land movement he speaks I noted is not of the inland fault lines, but at the point where the two plates meet. This wouldn't cause no mega tsunami, because the volume of the water in the area remains relatively unchanged. Definitely shaken... not stirred...

Here is the study for your review:

Turbidite Event History—Methods and Implications for
Holocene Paleoseismicity of the Cascadia Subduction Zone (http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1661f/pp1661f_text.pdf)

Please locate these alarming numbers for us.

Oh...

As for the alarmist that The New Yorker is regular player of, look at what Snopes says:

FEMA Failer (http://www.snopes.com/fema-warns-mega-natural-disaster/)

[Wild Cobra]

Forgot about the 6.9 quake in Burma just days ago.

5 6.8+ quakes in a week. And the seismologist conclude its all a coincidence :lmao

Celestial alignments can play a part in such things. The gravitation of aligned planets and moon can be "the straw that broke the camels back." I don't know if that's in play here, but when something is at the breaking point, it doesn't take much to make it happen. It is also possible that the vibration of one, triggered the next.

Coincidence, no. Something triggered them.

Who said they were coincidental? Have any names/links?

Oh...

Just ask Boutons. It's from fracking!

[JMarkJohns]

What is crazy is the interpretation by the author that the land would slide upward upon the subduction zone, having as much movement as what would be needed to cause the damage claimed.

Chris is a respected scientist, but his worse case scenarios are being amplified by a journalist ignorant of science.

He warns of the big one only causing a 43 ft. tsusami:



from: OSU quake expert Chris Goldfinger warns his own school not to build in Newport's tsunami zone (http://www.oregonlive.com/education/index.ssf/2015/07/osu_quake_expert_chris_goldfin.html)

It would take one so much larger to cross the mountains into the Willamette Valley.

As for the inland faults breaking up and causing severe damage, that is always possible. But is isn't going to move no 6 ft. vertically and 30 to 100 feet horizontally in the process. The degree of which the plates would have to move for that I think would be a world level extinction event. When we have large earthquakes, vertical movement under the ocean causes tsunamis and horizontal movement does not. As noted above, Chis is only warning of a 43 ft. tsunami. Not one of the Hollywood tsunamis.

Here is an image from his works that indicate "the big one" is due:

http://www.opb.org/images/upload/c_limit,h_730,q_90,w_940/Cascadia_timeline_ch5kfo.jpg (http://www.opb.org/news/series/unprepared/what-is-a-90-earthquake-/)

He lead a 13 years study of which I skimmed over looking for the numbers in the New Porker, and didn't see them. The large land movement he speaks I noted is not of the inland fault lines, but at the point where the two plates meet. This wouldn't cause no mega tsunami, because the volume of the water in the area remains relatively unchanged. Definitely shaken... not stirred...

Here is the study for your review:

Turbidite Event History—Methods and Implications for
Holocene Paleoseismicity of the Cascadia Subduction Zone (http://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/pp1661f/pp1661f_text.pdf)

Please locate these alarming numbers for us.

Oh...

As for the alarmist that The New Yorker is regular player of, look at what Snopes says:

FEMA Failer (http://www.snopes.com/fema-warns-mega-natural-disaster/)

Cool. So don't simply say there are no sources. The article is littered with heads of and well regarded scientists, etc. explain where the article hyperbolizes and exaggerates more than it should.

You say the article predicts something that couldn't happen, but simply said there were no sources. This data you provided is great. I'm fascinated by the claim of a west coast earthquake, and found this article to be very engaging.

Thanks for adding these. In the future I'll likely list what you've said alongside as an aside.

EDIT: in rereading your "source material" post, I realize I simplified the request to that of "sources" as in whom the article quotes, cites, and not the data. Thanks for providing the data. It's a good topic for discussion with my family in that area. Have some professor friends that teach in Vancouver as well.

[hater]

Celestial alignments can play a part in such things. The gravitation of aligned planets and moon can be "the straw that broke the camels back." I don't know if that's in play here, but when something is at the breaking point, it doesn't take much to make it happen. It is also possible that the vibration of one, triggered the next.

Coincidence, no. Something triggered them.

Who said they were coincidental? Have any names/links?

Oh...

Just ask Boutons. It's from fracking!


I don't know but it was on the MSN news reel. Seismologists say its all a coincidence :lol

[Wild Cobra]

Forgot about the 6.9 quake in Burma just days ago.

5 6.8+ quakes in a week. And the seismologist conclude its all a coincidence :lmao
It's actually 13 days between the last four.

I seldom use wiki for a source, but I find it accurate when not dealing with topics free of agenda driven input.

I did a little number crunching. That isn't so uncommon, and with the frequency of such earthquakes, it is still statistically within its random parameters we see. If we look at 7.0+ earthquakes, we have seen five in these first 107 days, which averages to one every 21.4 days. The average since 2006 has been one every 23.1 days, so this isn't so uncommon. For the year since 2006, the numbers were:

2006 33.2
2007 20.3
2008 30.5
2009 21.5
2010 16.6
2011 18.3
2012 21.6
2013 19.2
2014 30.4
2015 19.2

Now if we use 4.0 and above earthquakes, we are well below average so far at 9.1 per day, vs the 2006 to 2015 average of 36.7 per day.

March of last year and this year, we had one each 7.0 or higher with no deaths. April 2015 had one 7.0 and above with 8,964 deaths. So far this April, two at 7.0+ and only 238 deaths.

[Wild Cobra]

I don't know but it was on the MSN news reel. Seismologists say its all a coincidence :lol

LOL...

What were his credentials

What does it tell you about a scientist willing to be on MSNBC?

[hater]

LOL...

What were his credentials

What does it tell you about a scientist willing to be on MSNBC?

Checked for ya. It was USA Today

[Wild Cobra]

EDIT: in rereading your "source material" post, I realize I simplified the request to that of "sources" as in whom the article quotes, cites, and not the data. Thanks for providing the data. It's a good topic for discussion with my family in that area. Have some professor friends that teach in Vancouver as well.


Yes, this is my key gripe with material people post. They don't check for accuracy first, and when a journalist doesn't clearly cite sources, I generally disregard them. Just naming an individual with cherry picked quotes still allows the journalist to make invalid claims.

I am sick of the poor nature of journalism today.

Next time you post a link, you may want to do a little source checking for validity.

Now..

With the checking and links I did this far, can you find anything to support the 6 feet and 30 to 100 feet claim?

For the record, I know far more about the sciences than the average Joe. I have extensively studied varius aspects of science, and am concerned about the environment. I subscribe to various science journals, including "Nature Geoscience."

Now, I will do some searches in that journal for these unreasonable alarmist claims...

[hater]

It's actually 13 days between the last four.

I seldom use wiki for a source, but I find it accurate when not dealing with topics free of agenda driven input.

I did a little number crunching. That isn't so uncommon, and with the frequency of such earthquakes, it is still statistically within its random parameters we see. If we look at 7.0+ earthquakes, we have seen five in these first 107 days, which averages to one every 21.4 days. The average since 2006 has been one every 23.1 days, so this isn't so uncommon. For the year since 2006, the numbers were:

2006 33.2
2007 20.3
2008 30.5
2009 21.5
2010 16.6
2011 18.3
2012 21.6
2013 19.2
2014 30.4
2015 19.2

Now if we use 4.0 and above earthquakes, we are well below average so far at 9.1 per day, vs the 2006 to 2015 average of 36.7 per day.

March of last year and this year, we had one each 7.0 or higher with no deaths. April 2015 had one 7.0 and above with 8,964 deaths. So far this April, two at 7.0+ and only 238 deaths.

Thanks man. Will read when not high :lol

[Wild Cobra]

Checked for ya. It was USA Today

Now they are generally more reasonable than most.

So who was the scientist that said it?

Have a name, or was a journalist filling in the blanks?

Link?

[SpursforSix]

Now they are generally more reasonable than most.

So who was the scientist that said it?

Have a name, or was a journalist filling in the blanks?

Link?

I think it was Pee Pee the Freelancer.

[Wild Cobra]

I think it was Pee Pee the Freelancer.

Your typical adolescent nonsense is noted.

[Wild Cobra]

I was surprised to find very little in searches of Pacific Northwest tectonic plates, tsunamis, earthquakes, etc. After several key word searches, this is all I found relevant:



Mantle flow geometry from ridge to trench beneath the Gorda–Juan de Fuca plate system (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n12/full/ngeo2569.html); 02 November 2015

Low friction and fault weakening revealed by rising sensitivity of tremor to tidal stress (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n5/full/ngeo2419.html); 27 April 2015

Seismology: Diary of a wimpy fault (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v8/n5/full/ngeo2426.html); 27 April 2015

A continuum of stress, strength and slip in the Cascadia subduction zone (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n9/full/ngeo1215.html); 07 August 2011

Rapid tremor reversals in Cascadia generated by a weakened plate interface (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n6/full/ngeo1157.html); 22 May 2011

Two-stage subduction history under North America inferred from multiple-frequency tomography (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v1/n7/full/ngeo231.html); 29 June 2008


If you actually like this stuff, I think the Nature Geoscience is $59 annual for the online subscription. Some of these articles might give complete text, but they are generally paywalled, and you likely can only read the abstract.

[Wild Cobra]

Here's a NY Times opinion piece by a structural engineer:

Shake, Rattle, Seattle (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/28/opinion/28yanev.html); By PETER YANEVMARCH 27, 2010

These are the words of someone reasonable about the topic, instead of selling sensationalism.



This lesson should be of obvious concern to San Francisco and Los Angeles. But it is actually the Pacific Northwest that is most vulnerable to a mega-quake like Chile’s.

Just off Northern California, Oregon, Washington and British Columbia sits the 600-mile-long Cascadia fault. Like the Nazca tectonic plate that caused the quake and tsunami in Chile, Cascadia can produce temblors with magnitudes of 9 or greater, more powerful than anything we’ve experienced or expect from California’s famous San Andreas fault.


I don't know how accurate this is. Afterall, the Cascadia fault is out in the Pacific, far away from Seattle and Portland, whereas the Andeas fault is close to LA, and runs right under SF. I don't know how that calculates out, but a 9.5 quake at the fault would I would guess would be under a 5.0 that far away. I felt a 5.6 back in 1993 when I lived in Aloha and was close to the origination. It was definitely a shaker, but nothing happened other than things shaking off tables and walls. I'll bet it lost two or more magnitudes by the time it got to where I lived.

Now a sizable tsunami would roll water down the Columbia river, and likely flood Portland, but there would be at least a hour or more warning to get off the riverfront areas. I don't know Seattle well enough, and the bay would definitely allow more water than the Columbia river.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/USGS_Shakemap_-_1993_Scotts_Mills_earthquake.jpg/510px-USGS_Shakemap_-_1993_Scotts_Mills_earthquake.jpg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Scotts_Mills_earthquake)

[DMC]

I hear tons of the famous floating houses of Babahoyo are gone and sunk in the water :wow :wow

http://i1.trekearth.com/photos/13710/ecuador_024a.jpg

Jesus Christ. That could take hours to rebuild.

[DMC]

Here's a NY Times opinion piece by a structural engineer:

Shake, Rattle, Seattle (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/28/opinion/28yanev.html); By PETER YANEVMARCH 27, 2010

These are the words of someone reasonable about the topic, instead of selling sensationalism.



I don't know how accurate this is. Afterall, the Cascadia fault is out in the Pacific, far away from Seattle and Portland, whereas the Andeas fault is close to LA, and runs right under SF. I don't know how that calculates out, but a 9.5 quake at the fault would I would guess would be under a 5.0 that far away. I felt a 5.6 back in 1993 when I lived in Aloha and was close to the origination. It was definitely a shaker, but nothing happened other than things shaking off tables and walls. I'll bet it lost two or more magnitudes by the time it got to where I lived.

Now a sizable tsunami would roll water down the Columbia river, and likely flood Portland, but there would be at least a hour or more warning to get off the riverfront areas. I don't know Seattle well enough, and the bay would definitely allow more water than the Columbia river.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/26/USGS_Shakemap_-_1993_Scotts_Mills_earthquake.jpg/510px-USGS_Shakemap_-_1993_Scotts_Mills_earthquake.jpg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Scotts_Mills_earthquake)
You ever come back and read the shit you write? If you were a troll you'd be a legend. I cannot imagine anyone really being as big a fucking know-it-all as you. Wild Google.

[Wild Cobra]

Here is a decent link from KOIN, a local station, and has a video with Goldfinger in it. Please note their editorialism is bleak compared to what he says:

Goldfinger: Oregon not prepared for The Big One (http://koin.com/2015/09/21/goldfinger-oregon-not-prepared-for-the-big-one/)

He speaks of the coastline. I think maybe there is confusion from saying things like 600 miles, which is the length of the fault, not the distance of damage.

Here is another local news link from KGW news:

Oregon overdue for earthquake 315 years after 9.0 event (http://www.kgw.com/news/local/oregon-overdue-for-earthquake-315-years-after-9-0-event/67326996)

It has this video in it:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haeQhHs3m_8

Then checking Youtube, I found one with the New Yorker writer:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zW5ZFxaiCPo

Again, he doesn't give the same doom-and-gloom scenario the New Yorker does.

[Wild Cobra]

You ever come back and read the shit you write? If you were a troll you'd be a legend. I cannot imagine anyone really being as big a fucking know-it-all as you. Wild Google.

Don't blame me that I have 80 IQ points more than you, and that most people have 30 more.

[bigzak25]

GodBless the suffering. Deliver US Father!

[DMC]

Don't blame me that I have 80 IQ points more than you, and that most people have 30 more.
I highly doubt someone who spends that much time pretending to be smart really is.

It's funny how you Google something and then act like you're working from memory. "I think Nature Geoscience is..." No you don't. You read it on their website. You started your entire response off by admitting you searched for information then proceeded to try to lecture the forum on it. I bet you're a hoot at parties.


http://www.foodmessalert.com/cliff-claven-200w.jpg

[Wild Cobra]

I highly doubt someone who spends that much time pretending to be smart really is.

It's funny how you Google something and then act like you're working from memory. "I think Nature Geoscience is..." No you don't. You read it on their website. You started your entire response off by admitting you searched for information then proceeded to try to lecture the forum on it. I bet you're a hoot at parties.


http://www.foodmessalert.com/cliff-claven-200w.jpg

If one doesn't acquire knowledge by reading material, then how is it done?

Are you really that daft?

[Robz4000]

I'm from the future. Every tectonic plate is about to be jettisoned off into space.

[JMarkJohns]

Not that it matters since Wild Cobra says it's a bunk article, but:

722141176720179200

[Chris]

SHob-HLw998

[Wild Cobra]

Not that it matters since Wild Cobra says it's a bunk article, but:

722141176720179200
Start at 50 seconds in the second video of post 36. Tell me if any of that is like the alarmism being used. maybe at 40 seconds for the question he is answering.

The New Yorker is full of bunk, all the time! It's known for it's satire.

[spurraider21]

It natural in the ring of fire.

And people are worried about CO2...
we can do something about CO2

what do you suggest we do to help stop earthquakes?

[Chris]

we can do something about CO2

what do you suggest we do to help stop earthquakes?

Disarm the U.S. Navy imo tbh fwiw

[Wild Cobra]

we can do something about CO2

what do you suggest we do to help stop earthquakes?

LOL....

Yes, at an extreme cost, we can stop and reduce CO2. However, there is no trend that shows CO2 is a problem.

[SpursforSix]

LOL....

Yes, at an extreme cost, we can stop and reduce CO2. However, there is no trend that shows CO2 is a problem.

If we put a bunch of nukes underground deep along the fault line and then detonated them, what would happen?

[InRareForm]

It's crazy/sad that the two earthquakes could be related (triggered). The earth is truly small.

[Wild Cobra]

If we put a bunch of nukes underground deep along the fault line and then detonated them, what would happen?

Hard to say Lex.