538: Spurs with 28 percent shot at winning the title

[Spurtacular]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

[Spurs 4 The Win]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-nba-picks/

Seems fair tbh, I would say that the odds of getting by the teams warrants that:

100% Memphis
75% OKC
40% GS
90% Whoever the East sends as tribute to our West champion

That gives us a 27% chance

[apalisoc_9]

Seems fair tbh, I would say that the odds of getting by the teams warrants that:

100% Memphis
75% OKC
40% GS
90% Whoever the East sends as tribute to our West champion

That gives us a 27% chance

Those are pretty high numbers against The warriors.

Id go

100%
70%
30%
70%

I think 15% is a better number imo

[Spurs 4 The Win]

Those are pretty high numbers against The warriors.

Id go

100%
70%
30%
70% :lol
I think 15% is a better number imo

The East will be a walkover barring injury

[dabom]

Yeah but Curry is wearing down. The ratings don't take that into account.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

Yeah but Curry is wearing down. The ratings don't take that into account.

I agree with this, he has been slowing since the all star break. His numbers are down and his shooting is leveling off from incredible to just very good. They are beatable, but its gonna take a smart series from us and we are going to have to win the close games. We cant drop any 1 or 2 possesion games, we cant give up the patented Warriors lucky bullshit comeback from 8 down with 2 minutes to play. We have to play fundamentally sound.

[dabom]

I agree with this, he has been slowing since the all star break. His numbers are down and his shooting is leveling off from incredible to just very good. They are beatable, but its gonna take a smart series from us and we are going to have to win the close games. We cant drop any 1 or 2 possesion games, we cant give up the patented Warriors lucky bullshit comeback from 8 down with 2 minutes to play. We have to play fundamentally sound.

Also their belief that they can win any win down 10 with a few minutes to go will be their undoing. Their arrogance will hurt them in the playoffs.

[apalisoc_9]

The East will be a walkover barring injury

No it wont. Cleveland is not a walkover. Stop being vanilla mainstream

[Spurs 4 The Win]

No it wont. Cleveland is not a walkover. Stop being vanilla mainstream

Lol, they can barely beat Detroit

[Death In June]

I think the chances of progressing from each round would be 100 > 65 > 35 > 80

[TheMulletMan3000]

Spurs were the better team most of the year, except for the last couple of games when they were resting/not chasing meaningless RS wins/not trying to boost chances for winning player awards which math doesn't show. 538, ESPN's power index and bballref had Spurs 1st before last couple of games.

[apalisoc_9]

Lol, they can barely beat Detroit

Its called matchups. The spurs could barely beat Dallas

[KDKSpurs24]

Its called matchups. The spurs could barely beat Dallas
Exactly what I was saying. I agree. It's obviously matchups.

[MVPCues]

99.8%, 80%, 30%, 95%.

I'm not going to say the Cavs are a push over, but you can't make the finals % prediction in a vacuum. IF they get past the dubs, they are playing strong and would have to be heavily favored against the likes of the Cavs. 20%

[Blake]

Right in line with Vegas giving 3/1 or 4/1 odds

[Dex]

Don't ever tell me the odds!

[Beaverfuzz]

I agree with this, he has been slowing since the all star break. His numbers are down and his shooting is leveling off from incredible to just very good. They are beatable, but its gonna take a smart series from us and we are going to have to win the close games. We cant drop any 1 or 2 possesion games, we cant give up the patented Warriors lucky bullshit comeback from 8 down with 2 minutes to play. We have to play fundamentally sound.


This

:bobo

[Spurtacular]

No it wont. Cleveland is not a walkover. Stop being vanilla mainstream

I'd say they're about as much of a walkover as you are as a poster. :lmao:

[Horse]

Need to blowout gs like we blew out miami in '14 refs will not let us win the close ones.

[Obstructed_View]

Healthy and playing well. Healthy and playing well. Only thing that matters.

[Ginobilly]

No it wont. Cleveland is not a walkover. Stop being vanilla mainstream

I agree. Also, I don't see the NBA letting the Spurs beat Lebron again and be 3-1 vs him. If the Spurs by some miracle get by the GS, I expect the "fix" to be in against Cleveland and let them have their first ever championship. I expect to see parker getting hacked and pushed in the lane and no-call, Tristian getting away with murder and pushing against LMA, Kawhi being in fall trouble all series long, JR smith and delladova cucking patty, Kyrie irving going wild from 3, pop shitting the bed. I don't want to see cleveland for that reason alone. It will be a good story-line for the NBA though. The nba letting lebron beat either SA/GS this year.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

I agree. Also, I don't see the NBA letting the Spurs beat Lebron again and be 3-1 vs him. If the Spurs by some miracle get by the GS, I expect the "fix" to be in against Cleveland and let them have their first ever championship. I expect to see parker getting hacked and pushed in the lane and no-call, Tristian getting away with murder and pushing against LMA, Kawhi being in fall trouble all series long, JR smith and delladova cucking patty, Kyrie irving going wild from 3, pop shitting the bed. I don't want to see cleveland for that reason alone. It will be a good story-line for the NBA though. The nba letting lebron beat either SA/GS this year.

Lol, thats funny you think the NBA could alter the outcome of that series. Its one of those situations where Lebron, Kyrie, and Love would have to play out of their minds with ref help just to push it to a game 7, which would be in SA. Bron Bron is gonna be 1-3 vs the Spurs if we play them.

[Kidd K]

Seems fair tbh, I would say that the odds of getting by the teams warrants that:

100% Memphis
75% OKC
40% GS
90% Whoever the East sends as tribute to our West champion

That gives us a 27% chance


The East will be a walkover barring injury

I agree tbh, though I would say we're probably around 35-38% vs GSW. Health + GSW has HCA and will be getting the whistle due to being the flavor of the month for the NBA.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

I agree tbh, though I would say we're probably around 35-38% vs GSW. Health + GSW has HCA and will be getting the whistle due to being the flavor of the month for the NBA.

I may be in the minority but I think the Clippers have a decent shot of knocking them off and if not, at least hobbling them. There is a lot of bad blood in that rivalry and the two teams have been trending opposite directions since the last 10 games of the season.

[Raven]

realistically, it's 60% gsw and 39% spurs. everybody else sums up to maybe 1%

[SpursforSix]

I may be in the minority but I think the Clippers have a decent shot of knocking them off and if not, at least hobbling them. There is a lot of bad blood in that rivalry and the two teams have been trending opposite directions since the last 10 games of the season.

I agree with you. Clips could be pretty physical with GSW.

[tmtcsc]

The Spurs are winning it all this year. Book it. I'd put that at 100%.

[ajh18]

I think the numbers consider the potential of upsets on the other side of the bracket also. So while we might be at 98%->65%->30%->75% against the Grizzlies, Thunder, Warriors, and Cavs, those numbers have to be adjusted to account for those 4 teams losing. I'm not going to run the numbers but let's say it's a 90% chance we play OKC (aka they beat Dallas) and a 85% chance that GS beats BOTH Houston and LAC, those percentages need to be included in the estimates, as do the odds we beat the teams that upset them.

[hater]

It's 75% until we face Eliancito. Then it drops to 2.8%

[steeledl]

I'd go:

100%
65%
20%
75%

that puts us roughly at 10%. Ew.

[steeledl]

Anyone have the payout for Spurs winning the grizzly series at start of series? I have to think it was -5000 or more. My local sports book didn't take bets on our series but I'm sure someone has a line.