Spurs v OKC: Tale of the Tape & Series Prediction

[DPG21920]

Spurs meet OKC in another playoff match up and as of now, these are the two best and healthiest teams left in the West.

I'm not going to cite history in the form of former playoff battles (Spurs are 1-1 in modern playoff history vs OKC) & I'm not going to worry about the regular season against them because it was so crazy you couldn't take much from the raw results.

Instead I want to focus on who these teams are up to today. What the stats tell us about them and what I think they mean with regards to who wins the series and why. I'll start with OKC:

OKC:

Pace: 99.4
Off Efficiency: 109.9
Def Efficiency: 103.0
Eff FG%: 52.4%
Point Differential: +7.3 Points Per Game

OKC is an elite team. Unlike the Memphis series, this series will be an adjustment and a battle for pace. Memphis & SA played at basically the exact same pace all year so there was no adjustment there for the Spurs. It was a comfortable pace for them vs Memphis. OKC however plays at a top 10 pace in the league - they like to get up and go, create a lot of possessions and what makes them elite is their ability to play a quicker than average pace at an elite offensive efficiency rate.

By most offensive efficiency metrics, OKC is a top 2-3 team with regards to efficiency. Combine that with a quick pace and you get an explosive offensive team that can test the best of defenses and wear you down if you allow them to play their game.

They are no fluke and their offensive fire power propelled them this season to the tune of the 3rd best point differential in the league.

They rely heavily on a few areas: Free Throws & Rebounding with the latter being their best attribute. OKC is the number one team in the league in rebounding differential at +8.4. To put that in context, the 2nd place team (Pistons) has a rebounding differential of +3.8. They own the offensive glass with their explosive athletes and bigs (Russ + Ibaka/Kanter/Adams) and when you combine efficient scoring with 2nd chance points you get the 2nd best offense in the league.

Free throw attempts come as no surprise to anyone either. They are a top 10 team in Free Throws Attempted so that's a big part of their offense.

Spurs:

Pace: 95.7
Off Efficiency: 108.4
Def Efficiency: 96.6
Eff FG%: 52.6%
Point Differential: +10.6

San Antonio is an elite-er team. I won't go into as much detail on SA because you're all Spurs fans and have seen this, but obviously SA wins in very different, but similar ways as well. SA controls pace and plays at a slower pace, but very, very efficiently. SA (outside of the slippage we saw towards the end of the year) has been every bit as good as OKC on offense from an efficiency perspective. OKC scores more, but that's because of the pace they play at.

Spurs are careful with their possessions. Unlike OKC which is top 3 in TO's, SA is near the bottom in TO's. Spurs rely on suffocating defense, especially in the first half of games, to build leads then their offensive efficiency in the 2nd half takes over to the tune of the 2nd best point differential in the league.

Spurs have relied less & less on 3's, but the good news is SA is still one of the better 3PT shooting teams in the league with regards to percentage while OKC is a bottom third team there.

Basically, Spurs pin you down with defense and manufacture about as good of looks as you can hope for and make you pay with execution. They don't foul you, they rebound on the defensive end about as good as anyone & then value their possessions which is key when you play a slower pace.

What Does It All Mean / Series Prediction

At the end of the day it's about what the stats tell you & how the strengths and weaknesses of each team dictate the outcome of the series. From what I can see, I think this is how it will play out:

Many of OKC's strengths & what they rely on to win (Offensive Rebounding & Free Throw Attempts) are areas of supreme strength for SA. While OKC is the best offensive rebounding team in the league, SA is .3 rebounds away from being the best defensive rebounding team in the league.

Same goes with the free throws. OKC relies on and has been great at getting free throws, but this Spurs team again is stingy there; they are the number one team in the league with regards to free throw attempts against them.

Where things get dicey is in the area of pace and scoring. OKC is a top heavy team without a lot of depth but they have two stars that are capable of going nuclear and playing a ton of minutes. The good news again is SA with Danny/Kawhi have the two best players you could hope for to match up against them and make life difficult.

Westbrook has done pretty well vs SA so far. Against SA, he's shot above his season average (45%FG season, 47% FG against SA) and SA was in the top 12 for him in both FGM & FGA. SA was also top 10 for Westbrook with regards to +/- against opponent.

Durant however has not fared as well. Against the Spurs he shot worse than his season average (50% season, 47% FG against SA) and SA was in the middle of the pack for both FGM & FGA. Durant was barely a positive for OKC with regards to +/- (Durant ranked 23rd against SA for +/-).

So those two can still score although SA has very good wing defenders. I think that if SA can effectively rebound and keep OKC off the line (under their season averages) it's going to be tough for Durant/Westbrook to manufacture enough points to beat San Antonio. Durant/Westbrook would probably need to average 65+ points against SA to have a shot and can they do that against two great defenders + great defensive team?

If they score 65PPG, they will probably need another 30 from their supporting cast to win and that's where they might find it tough sledding with a lack of depth and 3PT shooting. Not to mention limited possessions due to TO's and less offensive rebounding.

Obviously, SA has to create good looks and they have to hit. If SA goes cold, they are going to struggle vs anyone, but especially OKC. SAs offense for the most part has been just as good (just different) but their defense has been levels better than OKC's.

Most areas where OKC excels, Spurs have a reasonable shot at neutralizing that. While I have concerns about Tony Parker, San Antonio's 3PT shooting & the overall offense at times, I see enough to be confident in SA winning this series.

I need to see the offense look good in the first two games before really knowing where SA stands coming out of the Memphis series, but:

Spurs in 6 (but is SA wins their first two games, then SA in 5.)

[Spurs 4 The Win]

Spurs in 6 (but is SA wins their first two games, then SA in 5.)

Im of the exact same thought process. Spurs win the first 2 games at home, it will be a short series. We screw up and give away game 1, we are in deep trouble. We must win game 1.

[BackHome]

I agree game one is a must for us to set the tone. Green better bring his big boy panties and show up.

[Holden_Caulfield]

spurs in 5

[DPG21920]

Some interesting side notes and what I'm hoping people can add in this thread is who on both teams they think will be x-factors & what they see happening with certain players.

For example, something to explore more is how LMA fared vs OKC. In looking at season splits vs teams, LMA didn't do so well against OKC.

They were one of the best teams against LMA with regards to FG% (48% vs OKC which was the 7th worst). He still did OK, but much like Durant vs SA, OKC was still a tougher opponent than most. Not only did LMA not make as many shots vs OKC as other opponents, he really shot a lot less vs OKC as well (go hand in hand). Is that scheme? Is that they defend him much better? Comfort level?

With the regular season being so weird vs OKC, hard to tell, but you would have to think he's going to be key on both ends.

[SouthernFried]

If SA has great defenders, why does Westbrook score above his average against us? Who guards him? Danny or Kwahi?

I think San Antonio CAN guard those two...or, at least slow them down. Much easier than OK can guard our 2. And you never know who on the "committee" is gonna show up to help offensively. San Antonio has more (quantity wise) offensive weapons. Our second unit can actually be better than our first unit at times. If we play as a team, we will win. If everyone goes cold and it's just LMA and Kawhi scoring...it will be difficult.

X-Factors for Spurs: Manu, Patty, Parker, Diaw. I don't expect much offense from Green, so he better be a Defensive monster out there. And you never know...Duncan may just show up :)

[ElNono]

tbh, hate to bring it up because I've not complained about it pretty much all season, but fouls are going to be a biggie in this series. Especially on the road.

The Spurs love to pack the paint, but athletic guys like Westbrook will storm in anyways, and whether the whistle blows or not will have an impact, IMO.

Other than that, I think we can take them, provided we're healthy.

[DPG21920]

If SA has great defenders, why does Westbrook score above his average against us? Who guards him? Danny or Kwahi?

Two things: 1. I think both will guard him at times. 2. I included the numbers from the regular season but you have to apply context. Who was playing in those games? Who was guarding him? Etc..it was a wacky regular season series vs OKC with regards to lineups/guys sitting.


I think San Antonio CAN guard those two...or, at least slow them down. Much easier than OK can guard our 2. And you never know who on the "committee" is gonna show up to help offensively. San Antonio has more (quantity wise) offensive weapons. Our second unit can actually be better than our first unit at times. If we play as a team, we will win. If everyone goes cold and it's just LMA and Kawhi scoring...it will be difficult.

This is a big point and one I did not really bring up (Because with OKC's lack of depth and ability of their top guys to play huge minutes, I think bench is negated some) but SA has the best bench in the league while OKC is very middle of the road. If OKC's bench can't get going it's going to place so much burden on Durant/Westbrook against the best defense in the league.


X-Factors for Spurs: Manu, Patty, Parker, Diaw. I don't expect much offense from Green, so he better be a Defensive monster out there. And you never know...Duncan may just show up :)

Green can be worth his weight in gold on defense in this series. If he can help out with Durant and play good stretches on WB SA has a great shot. If he's hitting 3's then Spurs beat up on OKC. The bench can help, I just don't know how effective they will be going up against Durant/WB which they will likely be doing since those dudes play a ton of minutes.

[Mnky]

Sweep.

[BillMc]

Spurs meet OKC in another playoff match up and as of now, these are the two best and healthiest teams left in the West.

I'm not going to cite history in the form of former playoff battles (Spurs are 1-1 in modern playoff history vs OKC) & I'm not going to worry about the regular season against them because it was so crazy you couldn't take much from the raw results.

Instead I want to focus on who these teams are up to today. What the stats tell us about them and what I think they mean with regards to who wins the series and why. I'll start with OKC:

OKC:

Pace: 99.4
Off Efficiency: 109.9
Def Efficiency: 103.0
Eff FG%: 52.4%
Point Differential: +7.3 Points Per Game

OKC is an elite team. Unlike the Memphis series, this series will be an adjustment and a battle for pace. Memphis & SA played at basically the exact same pace all year so there was no adjustment there for the Spurs. It was a comfortable pace for them vs Memphis. OKC however plays at a top 10 pace in the league - they like to get up and go, create a lot of possessions and what makes them elite is their ability to play a quicker than average pace at an elite offensive efficiency rate.

By most offensive efficiency metrics, OKC is a top 2-3 team with regards to efficiency. Combine that with a quick pace and you get an explosive offensive team that can test the best of defenses and wear you down if you allow them to play their game.

They are no fluke and their offensive fire power propelled them this season to the tune of the 3rd best point differential in the league.

They rely heavily on a few areas: Free Throws & Rebounding with the latter being their best attribute. OKC is the number one team in the league in rebounding differential at +8.4. To put that in context, the 2nd place team (Pistons) has a rebounding differential of +3.8. They own the offensive glass with their explosive athletes and bigs (Russ + Ibaka/Kanter/Adams) and when you combine efficient scoring with 2nd chance points you get the 2nd best offense in the league.

Free throw attempts come as no surprise to anyone either. They are a top 10 team in Free Throws Attempted so that's a big part of their offense.

Spurs:

Pace: 95.7
Off Efficiency: 108.4
Def Efficiency: 96.6
Eff FG%: 52.6%
Point Differential: +10.6

San Antonio is an elite-er team. I won't go into as much detail on SA because you're all Spurs fans and have seen this, but obviously SA wins in very different, but similar ways as well. SA controls pace and plays at a slower pace, but very, very efficiently. SA (outside of the slippage we saw towards the end of the year) has been every bit as good as OKC on offense from an efficiency perspective. OKC scores more, but that's because of the pace they play at.

Spurs are careful with their possessions. Unlike OKC which is top 3 in TO's, SA is near the bottom in TO's. Spurs rely on suffocating defense, especially in the first half of games, to build leads then their offensive efficiency in the 2nd half takes over to the tune of the 2nd best point differential in the league.

Spurs have relied less & less on 3's, but the good news is SA is still one of the better 3PT shooting teams in the league with regards to percentage while OKC is a bottom third team there.

Basically, Spurs pin you down with defense and manufacture about as good of looks as you can hope for and make you pay with execution. They don't foul you, they rebound on the defensive end about as good as anyone & then value their possessions which is key when you play a slower pace.

What Does It All Mean / Series Prediction

At the end of the day it's about what the stats tell you & how the strengths and weaknesses of each team dictate the outcome of the series. From what I can see, I think this is how it will play out:

Many of OKC's strengths & what they rely on to win (Offensive Rebounding & Free Throw Attempts) are areas of supreme strength for SA. While OKC is the best offensive rebounding team in the league, SA is .3 rebounds away from being the best defensive rebounding team in the league.

Same goes with the free throws. OKC relies on and has been great at getting free throws, but this Spurs team again is stingy there; they are the number one team in the league with regards to free throw attempts against them.

Where things get dicey is in the area of pace and scoring. OKC is a top heavy team without a lot of depth but they have two stars that are capable of going nuclear and playing a ton of minutes. The good news again is SA with Danny/Kawhi have the two best players you could hope for to match up against them and make life difficult.

Westbrook has done pretty well vs SA so far. Against SA, he's shot above his season average (45%FG season, 47% FG against SA) and SA was in the top 12 for him in both FGM & FGA. SA was also top 10 for Westbrook with regards to +/- against opponent.

Durant however has not fared as well. Against the Spurs he shot worse than his season average (50% season, 47% FG against SA) and SA was in the middle of the pack for both FGM & FGA. Durant was barely a positive for OKC with regards to +/- (Durant ranked 23rd against SA for +/-).

So those two can still score although SA has very good wing defenders. I think that if SA can effectively rebound and keep OKC off the line (under their season averages) it's going to be tough for Durant/Westbrook to manufacture enough points to beat San Antonio. Durant/Westbrook would probably need to average 65+ points against SA to have a shot and can they do that against two great defenders + great defensive team?

If they score 65PPG, they will probably need another 30 from their supporting cast to win and that's where they might find it tough sledding with a lack of depth and 3PT shooting. Not to mention limited possessions due to TO's and less offensive rebounding.

Obviously, SA has to create good looks and they have to hit. If SA goes cold, they are going to struggle vs anyone, but especially OKC. SAs offense for the most part has been just as good (just different) but their defense has been levels better than OKC's.

Most areas where OKC excels, Spurs have a reasonable shot at neutralizing that. While I have concerns about Tony Parker, San Antonio's 3PT shooting & the overall offense at times, I see enough to be confident in SA winning this series.

I need to see the offense look good in the first two games before really knowing where SA stands coming out of the Memphis series, but:

Spurs in 6 (but is SA wins their first two games, then SA in 5.)

Nice write up. :toast I think Spurs in 5

[coachmac87]

Great Write up!!

[SouthernFried]

The bench can help, I just don't know how effective they will be going up against Durant/WB which they will likely be doing since those dudes play a ton of minutes.

Excellent point. Our bench can be great, especially offensively. Our bench is better than anyone else's bench. But, if they are forced to play against Durant and Westbrook because those guys don't come out...well, that could decide the game. Something to watch, eh? ;)

[kaji157]

During the Memphis series i said that Spurs in 4 because if we lost one game to Memphis then we were not going to win the championship.

Again, Spurs should win in 5 or 6, if not, they are not going to win the championship and i dont care about a different scenario other than the Spurs winning it all.

Should win in 5.

[Keepin' it real]

Spurs meet OKC in another playoff match up and as of now, these are the two best and healthiest teams left in the West.

I'm not going to cite history in the form of former playoff battles (Spurs are 1-1 in modern playoff history vs OKC) & I'm not going to worry about the regular season against them because it was so crazy you couldn't take much from the raw results.

Instead I want to focus on who these teams are up to today. What the stats tell us about them and what I think they mean with regards to who wins the series and why. I'll start with OKC:

OKC:

Pace: 99.4
Off Efficiency: 109.9
Def Efficiency: 103.0
Eff FG%: 52.4%
Point Differential: +7.3 Points Per Game

OKC is an elite team. Unlike the Memphis series, this series will be an adjustment and a battle for pace. Memphis & SA played at basically the exact same pace all year so there was no adjustment there for the Spurs. It was a comfortable pace for them vs Memphis. OKC however plays at a top 10 pace in the league - they like to get up and go, create a lot of possessions and what makes them elite is their ability to play a quicker than average pace at an elite offensive efficiency rate.

By most offensive efficiency metrics, OKC is a top 2-3 team with regards to efficiency. Combine that with a quick pace and you get an explosive offensive team that can test the best of defenses and wear you down if you allow them to play their game.

They are no fluke and their offensive fire power propelled them this season to the tune of the 3rd best point differential in the league.

They rely heavily on a few areas: Free Throws & Rebounding with the latter being their best attribute. OKC is the number one team in the league in rebounding differential at +8.4. To put that in context, the 2nd place team (Pistons) has a rebounding differential of +3.8. They own the offensive glass with their explosive athletes and bigs (Russ + Ibaka/Kanter/Adams) and when you combine efficient scoring with 2nd chance points you get the 2nd best offense in the league.

Free throw attempts come as no surprise to anyone either. They are a top 10 team in Free Throws Attempted so that's a big part of their offense.

Spurs:

Pace: 95.7
Off Efficiency: 108.4
Def Efficiency: 96.6
Eff FG%: 52.6%
Point Differential: +10.6

San Antonio is an elite-er team. I won't go into as much detail on SA because you're all Spurs fans and have seen this, but obviously SA wins in very different, but similar ways as well. SA controls pace and plays at a slower pace, but very, very efficiently. SA (outside of the slippage we saw towards the end of the year) has been every bit as good as OKC on offense from an efficiency perspective. OKC scores more, but that's because of the pace they play at.

Spurs are careful with their possessions. Unlike OKC which is top 3 in TO's, SA is near the bottom in TO's. Spurs rely on suffocating defense, especially in the first half of games, to build leads then their offensive efficiency in the 2nd half takes over to the tune of the 2nd best point differential in the league.

Spurs have relied less & less on 3's, but the good news is SA is still one of the better 3PT shooting teams in the league with regards to percentage while OKC is a bottom third team there.

Basically, Spurs pin you down with defense and manufacture about as good of looks as you can hope for and make you pay with execution. They don't foul you, they rebound on the defensive end about as good as anyone & then value their possessions which is key when you play a slower pace.

What Does It All Mean / Series Prediction

At the end of the day it's about what the stats tell you & how the strengths and weaknesses of each team dictate the outcome of the series. From what I can see, I think this is how it will play out:

Many of OKC's strengths & what they rely on to win (Offensive Rebounding & Free Throw Attempts) are areas of supreme strength for SA. While OKC is the best offensive rebounding team in the league, SA is .3 rebounds away from being the best defensive rebounding team in the league.

Same goes with the free throws. OKC relies on and has been great at getting free throws, but this Spurs team again is stingy there; they are the number one team in the league with regards to free throw attempts against them.

Where things get dicey is in the area of pace and scoring. OKC is a top heavy team without a lot of depth but they have two stars that are capable of going nuclear and playing a ton of minutes. The good news again is SA with Danny/Kawhi have the two best players you could hope for to match up against them and make life difficult.

Westbrook has done pretty well vs SA so far. Against SA, he's shot above his season average (45%FG season, 47% FG against SA) and SA was in the top 12 for him in both FGM & FGA. SA was also top 10 for Westbrook with regards to +/- against opponent.

Durant however has not fared as well. Against the Spurs he shot worse than his season average (50% season, 47% FG against SA) and SA was in the middle of the pack for both FGM & FGA. Durant was barely a positive for OKC with regards to +/- (Durant ranked 23rd against SA for +/-).

So those two can still score although SA has very good wing defenders. I think that if SA can effectively rebound and keep OKC off the line (under their season averages) it's going to be tough for Durant/Westbrook to manufacture enough points to beat San Antonio. Durant/Westbrook would probably need to average 65+ points against SA to have a shot and can they do that against two great defenders + great defensive team?

If they score 65PPG, they will probably need another 30 from their supporting cast to win and that's where they might find it tough sledding with a lack of depth and 3PT shooting. Not to mention limited possessions due to TO's and less offensive rebounding.

Obviously, SA has to create good looks and they have to hit. If SA goes cold, they are going to struggle vs anyone, but especially OKC. SAs offense for the most part has been just as good (just different) but their defense has been levels better than OKC's.

Most areas where OKC excels, Spurs have a reasonable shot at neutralizing that. While I have concerns about Tony Parker, San Antonio's 3PT shooting & the overall offense at times, I see enough to be confident in SA winning this series.

I need to see the offense look good in the first two games before really knowing where SA stands coming out of the Memphis series, but:

Spurs in 6 (but is SA wins their first two games, then SA in 5.)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qu46svpJ5g

[coachmac87]

And tbh if anybody picks OKC to win the series it's because they want them to win and not analyzing at all lol. Stats and home court show Spurs should be an easy favorite

[DPG21920]

Basically, here is 3 barometers to look for IMO:

Rebounding: 11 offensive rebounds for OKC or less

Free Throws: 20 free throws attempted for OKC or less

Turn Overs: 12 turn overs for SA or less

If the Spurs get 0 of those 3, they lose the game.

If the Spurs get 1 of those 3, they lose a close game.

If the Spurs get 2 of those 3, they win the game.

If the Spurs get 3 of those 3, they win the game big.

[DPG21920]

If the bigs for OKC get in a groove rebounding and running off of defensive rebounds, it will be trouble. Spurs have to hit open looks so they have time to set up on defense. LMA/Tim are going to have a hard time keeping up with Russ/Durant pushing it off of misses and the OKC bigs all being able to run like champs.

This is also a series where people should not be afraid to double. They don't have a lot of shooters so muck things up and make life hard.

[DarrinS]

tbh, hate to bring it up because I've not complained about it pretty much all season, but fouls are going to be a biggie in this series. Especially on the road.

The Spurs love to pack the paint, but athletic guys like Westbrook will storm in anyways, and whether the whistle blows or not will have an impact, IMO.

Other than that, I think we can take them, provided we're healthy.


Westbrook is hard to officiate because he's a damn blur rushing to the rim

[Old School 44]

Nice post. The thing I like about this series that heavily favors the Spurs is decision making at the end of games. While Westbrook and KD are fantastic players, if it's close, I can see bad possessions by the Thunder losing games.

In the last couple minutes of a close game, you know who's going to get the ball for the Thunder, so they are easier to guard. For the Spurs, there are just more options, and for the most part, better decision makers all the way around.

Spurs in 6.

[DarrinS]

Our second unit really moves the ball well, but they're small.

Gonna be a physical series

[DPG21920]

If anyone can post a picture of OKC's defensive shot chart, I would very much appreciate it (regular season)

[Obi Juan Kenobi]

:bobo

[Dex]

FTT.

Spurs in 6.

[Mugen]

Nice writeup, tbh. :toast

[.G.]

Spurs meet OKC in another playoff match up and as of now, these are the two best and healthiest teams left in the West....Spurs in 6....

Only one "we" throughout this entire post and it was used correctly, too. Excellent.

Nigga Kane is clapping. Hard.

[DPG21920]

Only one "we" throughout this entire post and it was used correctly, too. Excellent.

Nigga Kane is clapping. Hard.

Intentional my poster

[phxspurfan]

KL will make life very tough on Durant the whole series. This will prove KL to be the superstar he is. He will make this series his coming out party, guaranteed. He will be Jordanesque.

That said, refs will make sure this goes at least 6. Especially in OKC. We will get mauled there like we get mauled in Oakland and like we used to in Staples. Westbrook will go for 40 a couple times. Ibaka won't be as much of a factor as he has been in the past, because we aren't the same team (we're bigger now). Waiters will make some timely baskets and plays. Manu will turn the ball over some.

Spurs in 6 or 7, not sure. If refs dominate, Spurs in 7 since Spurs have HCA.

Also KD has the potential to go into the fetal position mentally in this series. Everyone sees it, he's been showing uncharacteristic signs of that lately. If KL locks hikm down at one end and dominates him at the other (since KD can't defend at all), I can see KD checking out and leaving it all to Westbrook. In that case Spurs in 5.

[EVAY]

Terrific write-up and discussion starter, imo. Thank you for taking the time and thought to do it.

I think that one of the reasons that Westbrook has relatively good scoring (compared to Durant) in playing against us, is that historically our defense focused on Durant, and we were happy to let WB be a high but inefficient scorer. But Westbrook is better than he used to be. I would wonder what it would be like to have KL on WB and Green on Durant. Green is a better defender than he used to be, and I think we may need KL's athleticism and speed against WB. I worry about Green fouling out against WB, but I think KL can keep up with him and increase the turnovers. That will frustrate WB much as it frustrated Lance Stephenson, and getting into WB's head could be a very good thing for us. Green has enough speed to keep up with Durant.

If we start Aldridge and Duncan, when do we use Diaw? And who will match up with Kanter?

[Joseph Kony]

The best part about playing OKC is they are pretty weak at the SG position so the Spurs can hide Parker/Mills on their SGs, although Waiters has had decent games against us it seems like.

I wonder if Boban will see time in this series. He definitely proved he can play vs. Kanter and Adams but the pace will be a lot higher with Durant/Westbrook in the game. The Diaw/West pairing is pretty much unplayable in this series but I have a feeling we're going to see a good amount

[EVAY]

Re: the lack of bench depth at OKC. I agree that Durant and WB will play tons of minutes, and I think that will wear on them by the end of games.

Key will be rebounding, and I don't know how we fix that because they play so much more physical than we do. If refs let them get away with holding our bigs, we will get creamed on rebounding, but if they hold them accountable, we can rebound as well as they can.

[DPG21920]

The best part about playing OKC is they are pretty weak at the SG position so the Spurs can hide Parker/Mills on their SGs, although Waiters has had decent games against us it seems like.

I wonder if Boban will see time in this series. He definitely proved he can play vs. Kanter and Adams but the pace will be a lot higher with Durant/Westbrook in the game. The Diaw/West pairing is pretty much unplayable in this series but I have a feeling we're going to see a good amount

Very true which is why I was thinking SA should not be afraid to crowd/double KD/WB. You aren't scared of Robinson beating you. He may hit some 3's, but you live with that until he proves he can beat you. Their bigs outside of Ibaka/Kanter aren't shooters. Their bench has limited shooters.

Waiters had a 20 point game vs SA in a loss, and yeah, if he does that Spurs will be in tough games, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to do it for 4 games. He's playing better lately, but still not a good player.

Boban may play some, but I don't think it will be a first option. I can see that happening if things aren't working after a couple games though.

[DPG21920]

Re: the lack of bench depth at OKC. I agree that Durant and WB will play tons of minutes, and I think that will wear on them by the end of games.

Key will be rebounding, and I don't know how we fix that because they play so much more physical than we do. If refs let them get away with holding our bigs, we will get creamed on rebounding, but if they hold them accountable, we can rebound as well as they can.

OKC is an elite rebounding team and they should kill the defensively glass. Spurs don't go for them and OKC is good at them. I would not expect anything there, but anything Spurs get is gravy.

However, Spurs are a top 3 defensive rebounding team in the league. While it's definitely a case of "who wins the battle" I don't think OKC will have as much success just because every game now is vs a top defensive rebounding team. In games where SA doesn't take care of the glass, it will be a tougher game. However, they should be able to do a good job at limiting the extra possessions and Spurs rep as a great defensive team should help them with getting calls.

[Spurtacular]

spurs in 5

If they win the opening home games, that's my call (possibly even a sweep). If not, this goes six or seven.

[dabom]

If they win the opening home games, that's my call (possibly even a sweep). If not, this goes six or seven.

No ifs about me. Sweep to me.

[EVAY]

I think it will take 6 games for the Spurs to pull it off. Which means there will be no end of meltdowns on Spurstalk for at least two games of the series.

[SAGirl]

Thanks for the review! It was excellent. I think it does go 5-6 bc our offensive execution hasn't been that clean and we have had a few high TO game. Also the eye test has not been kind to our bigs rebounding against them in the RS. POP may be reluctant to use guys who may help like Boban. It may take a bad game for Pop to make adjustments.

As you say there could be the odd game where execution is lacking and too many TO or lack in defensive rebounding.

X factor??? Hmm probably LMA. Their bigs will be physical and he needs to bring the fight.

[hater]

Spurs in 6

[100%duncan]

Spurs in 5

[hater]

Spurs in 6 (but is SA wins their first two games, then SA in 5.)

:lol prediction

why don't you just add that if Spurs win their first 3 games, it'll be a sweep, Einstein :lol

[urunobili]

I think it goes 7 TBH

[diego]

game 1s are unpredictable, even though i think a sweep has a good chance (more likely 5) I still think its possible to get stunned in a game1, especially against players like WB and durant.

i think you're looking too much into some stats, aldridge for example, he played against okc 3 games, one of them was his fist game as a spur and the worst of his games, the other two in one he played 37 minutes and killed them the other he played 19 and was still better than that first game. between sample size and quality, and considering the context of aldridge's season, i expect him + diaw/duncan/west/boban to clearly win their matchups with okcs' bigs.

The marquee matchup here is kawhi vs durant, in games this season kawhi has basically dominated durant on both ends. I saw most of game thunder mavs gm5 last night, and though it does look like durant is fired up and thirsty to win, I have a feeling its just a matter of time for kawhi will break him.

The important thing with the thunder is 2nd chance points, TO, FTA, limiting their roleplayers involvement. This matchup has changed a lot, but the more i think of it, the more think those changes have all benefited the spurs ability to win the matchup. they have to stay in the moment and take care of business, but it must be said they are clear favorites vs a totally unbalanced roster with a rookie coach. Cant see the spurs losing this series unless durant goes off, and that just doesnt seem at all likely so long as kawhi is available.

[gospursgojas]

X factors- Dion Waiters for OKC and Danny Green for Spurs.

Waiters seems to heat up against the Spurs and goes off when we are doing a good job on WB/Durant.

Green will need to be able to make it tough for one of Durant or Westbrook and hitting open 3's with OKC bigs wanting to pack the paint is vital.

[skulls138]

X factor??? Hmm probably LMA. Their bigs will be physical and he needs to bring the fight.Damn straight! People concentrate on KD and RW but their bigs are just as much of a worry. They killed us on the glass. TDs going to do all he can, you know that, but LMA needs to bring it with scoring, defense and rebounding, plain and simple.

[Cry Havoc]

Great write-up.

I think the deciding factor this series will actually be how OKC uses their bench. I see them trying to put Kanter on the floor a lot, but they do NOT have a 2nd 5 that can stop Patty AND Manu AND Diaw on offense. The Spurs are going to absolutely tear into that soft second unit that's typically guard heavy and very small, weight wise.

Outside of Ibaka, the Dubs have no answer for any of the Spurs bigs. Clear him out of the lane and let the other guys post up. I could see them sticking Ibaka on LMA and staying home on other bigs. Diaw, Duncan, and West should be able to have their way with anyone else that OKC tries to throw at them.

Great write-up OP. I plan to be doing game grades for every game in the series. :tu

[Cry Havoc]

Damn straight! People concentrate on KD and RW but their bigs are just as much of a worry. They killed us on the glass. TDs going to do all he can, you know that, but LMA needs to bring it with scoring, defense and rebounding, plain and simple.

Pace will slow down. This will make it a lot easier for our guys to get into position. One thing OKC thrives on especially with their bigs rebounding is the chaos created by open court play. But you won't see as much of that in the post-season, so we shouldn't be as concerned about it.

[Spurs 4 The Win]

No ifs about me. Sweep to me.

Refs wont let that happen. Only way I see a sweep is if Green actually shows up to play this series.

[ginobilized]

Great write up!
Coaching is the other factor of this series not being talked about. Billy Donovan is going to get his ass handed to him a few times by Pop, book it.
OKC already has execution issues, rookie NBA coach in the 2nd round for the first time vs. HOF Pop with the most balanced roster of his career. OKC could be in trouble.

Spurs in 5

[GSH]

First of all, nice write-up, and thanks for taking the time.

I'll chime in with what I think will be keys:

All season, when OKC gets to the fourth quarter, it's the Westbrook-Durant Show. And it's not even a two-man game... it's two one-man games. It's their strength when it works, and it's their downfall when those two can't get it done. I don't think that's going to change to any great degree. To me, that says that that Key #1 to this series is Kawhi/Danny defense in the fourth quarters. It will be up to those two guys to make sure that The Westbrook-Durant show doesn't win fourth quarters. It will be up to Pop to make sure those two guys are fresh, late in the game.

The next biggest issue is that OKC has two big men who scored right at 1,000 points each in the regular season. Ibaka was a workhorse, and played 2,500 minutes. But Kanter's numbers are actually MUCH better, on a Per-36 minute basis. In fact, Kanter's regular season Per-36 Points and Rebounds are more than 50% higher than Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 minutes are three times Ibaka's. In the playoffs, Kanter's Points and RB's Per-36 are almost double Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 are over 6X Ibaka's. Yikes! Key#2 - frustrate Penes Kanter. Drive on him and draw fouls (he commits a LOT of fouls). Deny him the ball. Pay attention to boxing him out on the boards.

The third key is assists. The Spurs dish out more AST's per game than OKC, but every player on the team contributes. Parker leads the team, with 19% of their total AST's for the season. Second is Patty, with 11% of the Spurs' total assists. But... on the OKC side, Westbrook accounts for 44% of his team's total assists. In a 7-game series, Westbrook isn't going to beat you by himself. Key #3 - Force Westbrook to be a shooter, rather than let him make his teammates better. Westbrook playing Hero Ball will doom the team. The good news is, he loves playing Hero Ball.

[GSH]

game 1s are unpredictable, even though i think a sweep has a good chance (more likely 5) I still think its possible to get stunned in a game1, especially against players like WB and durant.

Game 1 is my biggest worry. If the Spurs come out with maximum intensity, and put away Game 1, the rest will be dominos falling. Maybe not a sweep, but clockwork. But OKC is going to come out playing smash-mouth ball, and Westbrook will be running every miss back down their throats. If the Spurs aren't prepared for that, he can start an avalanche. Losing Game 1 will make it a 7-game series, IMO.

[TheDoctor]

Nice write up!

IMO Spurs in 5. I'm more confident this time around than I was in 2014 for sure. My reasons:

MVPs:
Last time OKC had (in theory) the best player on the court. Now not so much. Neither Durant or Westbrook are gonna be better than Kawhi in this Series. Spurs wings matchup very well with those two and as with Miami, there's something about OKC that Kawhi loves to up his game.

Spurs Killers:
They no longer have Spurs Killer Jackson. This time, they got Dion Waiters instead. A very inefficient player that likes to think he's better than he really is, which can be as dangerous as disastrous, but hasn't reached those Reggie's "I'm gonna fuck the Spurs" levels yet.

Health:
Tony is in much better health this time and the Spurs are no longer so dependent of his production. Both variables a plus. Although we can say the same about Ibaka, he's much older. As I said in this other --> thread (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=259786&page=2&p=8550255#post8550255), Ibaka is no longer in his ultimate prime years. He's way older than his stated age of 26 y/o. I say he's at least 32 y/o. Since 2014 (supposedly 24 y/o) Ibaka has regressed considerably in points, rebounds, true-shooting, BPM, blocks, PER and win-shares while playing basically the same minutes. This age fiasco is all speculation on my part but a solid one as African players have a tendency (sometimes on purpose, sometimes is just life) to hide their true age.

Bigs:
No longer we have a nice but brittle defensively minded Center in Tiago, but a much more durable, agile, offensively minded and not-so-slouch-in-defense-after-all PF in LaMarcus Aldridge. As bunch of you already said, the only big I'm worried about is Kanter and his offensive boards domination. He can easily be their X-Factor. The good thing is that he's still a liability on defense which could be a tailor-made matchup for the GOAT.

Coaches:
Really?

[DPG21920]

First of all, nice write-up, and thanks for taking the time.

I'll chime in with what I think will be keys:

All season, when OKC gets to the fourth quarter, it's the Westbrook-Durant Show. And it's not even a two-man game... it's two one-man games. It's their strength when it works, and it's their downfall when those two can't get it done. I don't think that's going to change to any great degree. To me, that says that that Key #1 to this series is Kawhi/Danny defense in the fourth quarters. It will be up to those two guys to make sure that The Westbrook-Durant show doesn't win fourth quarters. It will be up to Pop to make sure those two guys are fresh, late in the game.

The next biggest issue is that OKC has two big men who scored right at 1,000 points each in the regular season. Ibaka was a workhorse, and played 2,500 minutes. But Kanter's numbers are actually MUCH better, on a Per-36 minute basis. In fact, Kanter's regular season Per-36 Points and Rebounds are more than 50% higher than Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 minutes are three times Ibaka's. In the playoffs, Kanter's Points and RB's Per-36 are almost double Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 are over 6X Ibaka's. Yikes! Key#2 - frustrate Penes Kanter. Drive on him and draw fouls (he commits a LOT of fouls). Deny him the ball. Pay attention to boxing him out on the boards.

The third key is assists. The Spurs dish out more AST's per game than OKC, but every player on the team contributes. Parker leads the team, with 19% of their total AST's for the season. Second is Patty, with 11% of the Spurs' total assists. But... on the OKC side, Westbrook accounts for 44% of his team's total assists. In a 7-game series, Westbrook isn't going to beat you by himself. Key #3 - Force Westbrook to be a shooter, rather than let him make his teammates better. Westbrook playing Hero Ball will doom the team. The good news is, he loves playing Hero Ball.

All really good points and I view these as the effect where my post highlighted the cause. This is sort of the nitty gritty of what happens when OKC is doing what they staticisally do well. They are still relatively ISO heavy, especially in late game situations. They don't have a lot of options though because they don't have a lot of shooters.

I think everyone agrees Kanter is a big deal and he's definitely OKC's best chance at having a consistent 3rd scorer.

Spurs have to execute. I know it's generic but it's true. Especially in late game situations. OKC's defense, while active, is not really that good. Spurs should be able to manufacture good shots - they just have to avoid silly TO's because if they just take care of the ball, they will get good shots.

[DPG21920]

Great write-up.

I think the deciding factor this series will actually be how OKC uses their bench. I see them trying to put Kanter on the floor a lot, but they do NOT have a 2nd 5 that can stop Patty AND Manu AND Diaw on offense. The Spurs are going to absolutely tear into that soft second unit that's typically guard heavy and very small, weight wise.

Outside of Ibaka, the Dubs have no answer for any of the Spurs bigs. Clear him out of the lane and let the other guys post up. I could see them sticking Ibaka on LMA and staying home on other bigs. Diaw, Duncan, and West should be able to have their way with anyone else that OKC tries to throw at them.

Great write-up OP. I plan to be doing game grades for every game in the series. :tu

I really don't know how they will use their bench. With Donovan being a rookie coach, I can see him going into panic mode if they are down and not trusting the bench enough to rest WB/Durant. Kanter is going to get minutes. He's been someone that has been favored a lot, but other than that, I think WB/KD play 42-44 MPG (if it's close).

OKC bigs are agile and move well on the permiter but they really excel at grabbing boards then running the floor hard. Spurs have to hit shots against OKC or else they will be dealing with WB and bigs streaking down the floor.

Looking forward to the game grades :tu

[Holden_Caulfield]

If they win the opening home games, that's my call (possibly even a sweep). If not, this goes six or seven.
we should win both home games by double digits tbh

[GSH]

All really good points and I view these as the effect where my post highlighted the cause.

OKC's defense, while active, is not really that good. Spurs should be able to manufacture good shots - they just have to avoid silly TO's because if they just take care of the ball, they will get good shots.

Heh... I came late to basketball, from other sports. A lot of you guys are much better with the cause than me. That's why I come here.

OKC's (lack of) defense was exposed pretty badly, even against Dallas. The TO's don't even worry me as much (within reason) as making sure to get good, high-percentage shots.

I talk a lot about high-variance ball: If you make 40% of your 3-pointers, as a team, it would be considered damn good. Only Golden State did better this season. Most people would say that is the equivalent of shooting 60% on your 2-point attempts, since both versions yield 1.2 points per attempt. BUT... if you're shooting 40% from 3P, it means that on 60% of your possessions, you come away with nothing. If you're shooting 60% on your 2-pointers, it means that only 40% of your possessions are empty. That's big for two reasons:

First, shooting the high-percentage 2-pointers means a lot less chances for the other team to get out and run on you. You can force the other team into a half-court offense, which is a huge advantage for the Spurs. Second, if you're shooting high-variance 3-pointers, you get hurt a lot worse by mini-slumps during a game. e.g. - if you're shooting 40%, you won't hit 4 out of 10 constantly. You might make 6 of your first 10, and only 2 of your second 10. Obviously it evens out over time. But if the clock runs out before things even out, you lose. Manu has always been a high-variance player, which is why he can be so maddening. When he's on, he generates a lot of action across his stat line - but when he hits those spells where he's not clicking, he accounts for a LOT of empty possessions. It evens out over time, but in a close game, slow and steady is better than streaky.

You're 100% right - the Spurs SHOULD be able to manufacture good shots. Against a team that isn't great defensively, the Spurs don't need a lot of 3-point possessions. They need a lot of boring, high-percentage 2-point shots. They've got to stick to that game plan, and not get caught up in playing OKC's game. That's a lot harder on the road, and it will be a big test for the younger players, especially.

[DPG21920]

Heh... I came late to basketball, from other sports. A lot of you guys are much better with the cause than me. That's why I come here.

OKC's (lack of) defense was exposed pretty badly, even against Dallas. The TO's don't even worry me as much (within reason) as making sure to get good, high-percentage shots.

I talk a lot about high-variance ball: If you make 40% of your 3-pointers, as a team, it would be considered damn good. Only Golden State did better this season. Most people would say that is the equivalent of shooting 60% on your 2-point attempts, since both versions yield 1.2 points per attempt. BUT... if you're shooting 40% from 3P, it means that on 60% of your possessions, you come away with nothing. If you're shooting 60% on your 2-pointers, it means that only 40% of your possessions are empty. That's big for two reasons:

First, shooting the high-percentage 2-pointers means a lot less chances for the other team to get out and run on you. You can force the other team into a half-court offense, which is a huge advantage for the Spurs. Second, if you're shooting high-variance 3-pointers, you get hurt a lot worse by mini-slumps during a game. e.g. - if you're shooting 40%, you won't hit 4 out of 10 constantly. You might make 6 of your first 10, and only 2 of your second 10. Obviously it evens out over time. But if the clock runs out before things even out, you lose. Manu has always been a high-variance player, which is why he can be so maddening. When he's on, he generates a lot of action across his stat line - but when he hits those spells where he's not clicking, he accounts for a LOT of empty possessions. It evens out over time, but in a close game, slow and steady is better than streaky.

You're 100% right - the Spurs SHOULD be able to manufacture good shots. Against a team that isn't great defensively, the Spurs don't need a lot of 3-point possessions. They need a lot of boring, high-percentage 2-point shots. They've got to stick to that game plan, and not get caught up in playing OKC's game. That's a lot harder on the road, and it will be a big test for the younger players, especially.

For sure - haha, wasn't implying anything by the cause/effect comment - just making note that it was good to go into the effect because all I really focused on was high level cause. The effect is very important to discuss in terms of getting down to the nitty gritty.

You really described basketball in a nut shell. The objective is to create the highest percentage looks on offense and to give up the lowest percentage looks on defense. Then beyond that, it has to do with tailoring that to your team and running things that fit your personnel.

You can't control anything beyond the percentages, which is why you hear so many coaches talk about "making shots". Just because you are missing (unless it's a fundamental flaw in your talent) does not mean the offense is functioning poorly - that's the hard part of the game and what we've seen with SA the past few weeks on offense.

[BillMc]

First of all, nice write-up, and thanks for taking the time.

I'll chime in with what I think will be keys:

All season, when OKC gets to the fourth quarter, it's the Westbrook-Durant Show. And it's not even a two-man game... it's two one-man games. It's their strength when it works, and it's their downfall when those two can't get it done. I don't think that's going to change to any great degree. To me, that says that that Key #1 to this series is Kawhi/Danny defense in the fourth quarters. It will be up to those two guys to make sure that The Westbrook-Durant show doesn't win fourth quarters. It will be up to Pop to make sure those two guys are fresh, late in the game.

The next biggest issue is that OKC has two big men who scored right at 1,000 points each in the regular season. Ibaka was a workhorse, and played 2,500 minutes. But Kanter's numbers are actually MUCH better, on a Per-36 minute basis. In fact, Kanter's regular season Per-36 Points and Rebounds are more than 50% higher than Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 minutes are three times Ibaka's. In the playoffs, Kanter's Points and RB's Per-36 are almost double Ibaka's, and his FTA's Per-36 are over 6X Ibaka's. Yikes! Key#2 - frustrate Penes Kanter. Drive on him and draw fouls (he commits a LOT of fouls). Deny him the ball. Pay attention to boxing him out on the boards.

The third key is assists. The Spurs dish out more AST's per game than OKC, but every player on the team contributes. Parker leads the team, with 19% of their total AST's for the season. Second is Patty, with 11% of the Spurs' total assists. But... on the OKC side, Westbrook accounts for 44% of his team's total assists. In a 7-game series, Westbrook isn't going to beat you by himself. Key #3 - Force Westbrook to be a shooter, rather than let him make his teammates better. Westbrook playing Hero Ball will doom the team. The good news is, he loves playing Hero Ball.


Nice write up!

IMO Spurs in 5. I'm more confident this time around than I was in 2014 for sure. My reasons:

MVPs:
Last time OKC had (in theory) the best player on the court. Now not so much. Neither Durant or Westbrook are gonna be better than Kawhi in this Series. Spurs wings matchup very well with those two and as with Miami, there's something about OKC that Kawhi loves to up his game.

Spurs Killers:
They no longer have Spurs Killer Jackson. This time, they got Dion Waiters instead. A very inefficient player that likes to think he's better than he really is, which can be as dangerous as disastrous, but hasn't reached those Reggie's "I'm gonna fuck the Spurs" levels yet.

Health:
Tony is in much better health this time and the Spurs are no longer so dependent of his production. Both variables a plus. Although we can say the same about Ibaka, he's much older. As I said in this other --> thread (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=259786&page=2&p=8550255#post8550255), Ibaka is no longer in his ultimate prime years. He's way older than his stated age of 26 y/o. I say he's at least 32 y/o. Since 2014 (supposedly 24 y/o) Ibaka has regressed considerably in points, rebounds, true-shooting, BPM, blocks, PER and win-shares while playing basically the same minutes. This age fiasco is all speculation on my part but a solid one as African players have a tendency (sometimes on purpose, sometimes is just life) to hide their true age.

Bigs:
No longer we have a nice but brittle defensively minded Center in Tiago, but a much more durable, agile, offensively minded and not-so-slouch-in-defense-after-all PF in LaMarcus Aldridge. As bunch of you already said, the only big I'm worried about is Kanter and his offensive boards domination. He can easily be their X-Factor. The good thing is that he's still a liability on defense which could be a tailor-made matchup for the GOAT.

Coaches:
Really?

Nice writeups guys. Spurstalk really rolling in this thread.:bobo

[DenialTwist]

X factors- Dion Waiters for OKC and Danny Green for Spurs.

Waiters seems to heat up against the Spurs and goes off when we are doing a good job on WB/Durant.

Green will need to be able to make it tough for one of Durant or Westbrook and hitting open 3's with OKC bigs wanting to pack the paint is vital.

If waiters heats up it will be because Parker and Mills are guarding him. But because it's the playoffs, Waiters won't touch the ball. Durant and Westbrook will hog the ball for 40+ minutes.

[SD126]

Spurs in 6 regardless. But we need BOTH games 1 & 2 at home, and we'll take care of business.

[Russo21]

Nice write ups from all, thanks for the read. Spurs in 4

[emanueldavidginobili]

I'm so excited for this game, but also nervous.

Like everyone else already said Game 1 is going to be very important. Kawhi and Durant will be playing the same amount of minutes whenever he's on the court KL will be too. I think this series comes down to containing RW and limiting second chance opportunities and Danny Green knocking down the open three. That's what makes this team really dangerous is their second chance opportunities because they are usually good at converting on them. If the Spurs neutralize the Thunders others like Waiters, Morrow, Ibaka, rebound and maintain a good pace I think the Spurs will be fine their not going to Sweep them but if they play to their potential this series ends in 5 maybe 6 games.

[NameLess Scrub]

I think almost anybody in the Spurs can be an X factor, but I think especially the old big 3, because it usually takes one or more of them to turn back the clock in a series for the team to get to the next level.

OKC's X factor might be Waiters as JR Smith is to the Cavs. Not so good players, but capable of exploding and blowing up your defensive plan.

[EVAY]

Great write-up OP. I plan to be doing game grades for every game in the series. :tu

This is something we will all look forward to reading. Thanks in advance.

[TampaDude]

WWLWW. Spurs in 5. Book it.

[NameLess Scrub]

Looking at some of the things said in this thread makes me remember, I hope WB/KD follow their trend of taking the games for themselves, specially in the 4th quarter. Play tons of minutes and shoot everything, don't trust their teammates, twist their rookie coach's arm. Then they can live and die with their mistakes, get tired at the end of games, and just wear down throughout the series.

If Kanter gets scored often and Waiters chucks a lot thinking he's better than he is, that would be a plus and make up for a must watch series.

[NameLess Scrub]

Spurs wings matchup very well with those two and as with Miami, there's something about OKC that Kawhi loves to up his game.



Kawhi might get annoyed and extra motivated by star players that get lots of hype and calls, that gloat, or are divas in general. Considering his personality it wouldn't surprise me.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Parker's penetration and Green's shooting will be the x-factors for the Spurs imo.

I hope Pop starts West and Aldridge, trying to find space for attacking the rim early and then have Duncan contain Kanter's O rebounding, then attacking Kanter with PnRs and post ups with the 2nd unit.

[Gervin44Silas13]

REBOUND REBOUND REBOUND....!!!!!

Spurs in 6

[FromWayDowntown]

tbh, hate to bring it up because I've not complained about it pretty much all season, but fouls are going to be a biggie in this series. Especially on the road.

Somewhat relevant:

Significant Active Officials -- road teams in Conference Semifinals 2007-2015 (sorted by away winning percentage):



OFFICIAL hW aW a%
FRAHER, PAT 2 4 0.667
LEWIS, ERIC 1 2 0.667
PHILLIPS, JASON 7 10 0.588
DAVIS, MARC 9 10 0.526
CAPERS, JAMES 10 10 0.500
SMITH, MICHAEL 5 5 0.500
CORBIN, SEAN 5 5 0.500
ZIELINSKI, GARY 1 1 0.500
CRAWFORD, DAN 15 14 0.483
STAFFORD, DERRICK 12 10 0.455
SPOONER, BILL 10 8 0.444
FOSTER, SCOTT 18 13 0.419
MALLOY, ED 12 8 0.400
KENNEDY, BILL 11 7 0.389
GARRETSON, RON 15 9 0.375
ZARBA, ZACH 7 4 0.364
GOBLE, JOHN 8 4 0.333
MCCUTCHEN, MONTY 21 10 0.323
CALLAHAN, MIKE 19 9 0.321
MAUER, KEN 20 9 0.310
WASHINGTON, TOM 18 8 0.308
BROTHERS, TONY 16 6 0.273
MOTT, RODNEY 5 1 0.167
WRIGHT, SEAN 6 1 0.143

[Brazil]

Nice stuff DPG thanks

[said7]

OKC in crunch time blows. Keep it tight and the game is yours.

[DPG21920]

I'm working wondering if Pop is going to go Tayshaun Prince on Robertson. Just exaggerating everything to force and bait him into shooting.

I don't see how a team with a non shooter survives against a focused Spurs team.

[024]

The 3 should be pretty important. OKC has no decent 3 point shooting role players outside of maybe Waiters. If OKC stays at their season averages, Durant and Westbrook will have to do everything.

Ibaka had a great 3 point shooting % in the Dallas series though. Can't allow that to happen again. Don't know if Aldridge is up to the task of guarding Ibaka out to the 3 point line.

[Budkin]

What Spur-killers does OKC have left? No Harden and no Reggie Jackson. I don't know why everyone is flipping out.

[TD 21]

I think too many think this will be easier than it will be in actuality.

As I've talked about ad nauseam the past few years, these assholes play with supreme confidence against the Spurs and unfortunately, it's not reciprocated, though having two in their prime stars, one of whom is at the level of the Thunder's two, should help with the latter.

On top of that, it's been obvious for years that they're jealous of the Spurs, dislike them and would love nothing more than to beat them. Rightly or wrongly, I'm sure they feel that had Westbrook been healthy throughout the playoffs in '13 and Ibaka played the first two games of the WCF in '14, they'd have been in the Finals. Throw in the possibility of Durant leaving and their motivation will be sky high. Not that the Spurs' won't be, for obvious reasons, but still.

The numbers might point to Spurs in 6, but I've seen too many alarming signs from this team (especially on the road) to feel confident in that, so I'll go Spurs in 7. Thunder in 6 wouldn't shock me though.

[peacemaker885]

Spurs in 5.

[Ocotillo]

My concern is coming out without the intensity required due to playing a depleted Memphis team. Cognitively, they are smart enough to know better but it's still hard to step up after the rest and an easier series. As an earlier post said, lose game 1 and it's seven game series. I dislike the OKC guys but they are damn good.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

I think too many think this will be easier than it will be in actuality.

As I've talked about ad nauseam the past few years, these assholes play with supreme confidence against the Spurs and unfortunately, it's not reciprocated, though having two in their prime stars, one of whom is at the level of the Thunder's two, should help with the latter.

On top of that, it's been obvious for years that they're jealous of the Spurs, dislike them and would love nothing more than to beat them. Rightly or wrongly, I'm sure they feel that had Westbrook been healthy throughout the playoffs in '13 and Ibaka played the first two games of the WCF in '14, they'd have been in the Finals. Throw in the possibility of Durant leaving and their motivation will be sky high. Not that the Spurs' won't be, for obvious reasons, but still.

The numbers might point to Spurs in 6, but I've seen too many alarming signs from this team (especially on the road) to feel confident in that, so I'll go Spurs in 7. Thunder in 6 wouldn't shock me though.

Agreed 100%. Reminds me of the over confidence a lot of fans had last year going into the Clipper series. Even minor players like Payne can be a headache for the Spurs if they get playing time.

[DPG21920]

Agreed 100%. Reminds me of the over confidence a lot of fans had last year going into the Clipper series. Even minor players like Payne can be a headache for the Spurs if they get playing time.

Well I hope my post didn't come off as over confident. I think the Spurs will and should win, but OKC is an elite team. It's just that what they do well, the Spurs typically defend well which bodes well while eating beef Wellington

[will_spurs]

For example, something to explore more is how LMA fared vs OKC. In looking at season splits vs teams, LMA didn't do so well against OKC.

It's very hard to learn anything of value from the splits against OKC because out of the 4 games we played against them:
- the 1st one was the 1st game of the season and the team wasn't clicking (especially LMA for obvious reasons)
- the 2nd game (early March) was the only really competitive one and LMA played well (24 & 9 on .643 shooting)
- the 3rd game (late March) Pop decided to tank with Kawhi injured and resting LMA and Tony
- the 4th game was the meaningless penultimate game of the season, LMA played only 19 minutes

So all in all I wouldn't place a lot of weight on Westbrook did well, Durant and LMA not so much, as only one game was a truly representative game.

Re: X-Factors for OKC I'd say Steven Adams and the refs. I could easily see the refs extending the series, especially this way. Actually as counter-intuitive as it sounds I think if the Spurs are 2-0 then they probably come back from OKC 2-2, whereas if they are 1-1 they have a better chance of coming back 3-1. The NBA just lost the Clippers and a significant part of the Warriors. I don't think they will allow the Spurs to win in 4 or 5 games, especially against the "superstars" darlings of the NBA.

For the Spurs it's pretty much always the same: Parker, Green and Mills' shooting, West/Diaw as "bigs", etc.

[Sean Cagney]

OKC in crunch time blows. Keep it tight and the game is yours.

Someone I talked to the other night was mentioning how bad they were down the stretch in 4 Q's, hopefully Westbrook chucks and keeps the ball out of Durants hands.

[skulls138]

Time for revenge on what KD said about KL in offseason!

[will_spurs]

Someone I talked to the other night was mentioning how bad they were down the stretch in 4 Q's, hopefully Westbrook chucks and keeps the ball out of Durants hands.

There was damning stat posted towards the end of the season re: OKC and 4th quarters. Can't remember it exactly but they were the worst team when leading (or trailing?) when entering the 4th Q.

From ESPN Power Rankings during the 24 weeks of the season: http://espn.go.com/nba/team/rankings/_/name/okc/oklahoma-city-thunder


(Week 6) The Thunder, though, can't escape the fact that their fourth-quarter execution has frankly been as spotty as ever and, worse, doesn't seem to be getting any better.

(Week 19) OKC is tied with lowly Philly for the league lead in games lost (10) when entering the fourth quarter with a lead.

(Week 20) The Thunder have led entering the fourth quarter in eight consecutive games, yet we're guessing you're fairly aware by now that they've only won three of them. Defense continues to be the biggest culprit, but there's no dodging the fact that Russell Westbrook's late-game struggles are an issue, too. Russ, for example, is 0-for-11 on 3s in the fourth quarter and OT (https://twitter.com/ESPNSteinLine/status/709084963002429440)in those eight games.

(Week 23) Through the first three quarters of games, OKC is plus-232 for the season in the first, plus-107 in the second and plus-208 in the third, better scoring margins than any team other than Golden State and San Antonio. Yet in the fourth quarter, thanks to the Thunder's well-chronicled struggle to hold leads, they're stunningly minus-6.

[YGWHI]

If waiters heats up it will be because Parker and Mills are guarding him. But because it's the playoffs, Waiters won't touch the ball. Durant and Westbrook will hog the ball for 40+ minutes.

But Parker and Mills will guard him, Pop can't hide them on defense in this series. At some point he'll put Parker on Roberson but Mills will defend Waiters in the 2nd unit.

Waiters won the game for them in OKC against us attacking Parker, and did a good job against Mavs in game 4 in playoffs.

He'll score a lot...Hopefully, our bench, Mills, Boris, Manu, DWest will match his scoring and Kanter's.

[YGWHI]

MVPs:
Last time OKC had (in theory) the best player on the court. Now not so much. Neither Durant or Westbrook are gonna be better than Kawhi in this Series. Spurs wings matchup very well with those two and as with Miami, there's something about OKC that Kawhi loves to up his game.

Kawhi was -without doubt- the best Spurs player against OKC this season. On both ends. But all those rumours saying the Spurs want to sign a player in his position, he will have to adapt his game to other position, will lose opportunities to improve with the ball in his hands 'cause Durant, his family and friends talking about it...
All those things can affect his performance, they can make him feel the Spurs underestimate his game...After all, nobody knows the nature and the processes of Kawhi's inconscient.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

Well I hope my post didn't come off as over confident. I think the Spurs will and should win, but OKC is an elite team. It's just that what they do well, the Spurs typically defend well which bodes well while eating beef Wellington

Your post was solid DPG21920, at least you backed up why you feel the Spurs would win. Just seems like a lot of the other fans are a bit cocky in regards to this matchup but I suppose that's bound to happen when your team wins 67 games.

I also think Spurs in 6, but I feel awfully nervous about this series, especially when it comes to dealing with OKC's bigs. A much as people talk Durant and Westbrook, I feel like their roleplayers always play with extreme confidence against us.

I also think it'll be a bit jarring going from a D-league team in the Grizzlies to an elite team in OKC. If it's split after two games in SA it's going to be an awfully long series I fear.

But again, great write up buddy :tu

[T Park]

I'm working wondering if Pop is going to go Tayshaun Prince on Robertson. Just exaggerating everything to force and bait him into shooting.

I don't see how a team with a non shooter survives against a focused Spurs team.


Having someone Parker can double off of, and just not even worry about is killer.

What's his move? Bring in Foye? Waiters? :lol

[T Park]

Your post was solid DPG21920, at least you backed up why you feel the Spurs would win. Just seems like a lot of the other fans are a bit cocky in regards to this matchup but I suppose that's bound to happen when your team wins 67 games.

I also think Spurs in 6, but I feel awfully nervous about this series, especially when it comes to dealing with OKC's bigs. A much as people talk Durant and Westbrook, I feel like their roleplayers always play with extreme confidence against us.

I also think it'll be a bit jarring going from a D-league team in the Grizzlies to an elite team in OKC. If it's split after two games in SA it's going to be an awfully long series I fear.

But again, great write up buddy :tu


Yeah I'm really worried about traffic cone Kanter.....

[TheDoctor]

Kawhi was -without doubt- the best Spurs player against OKC this season. On both ends. But all those rumours saying the Spurs want to sign a player in his position, he will have to adapt his game to other position, will lose opportunities to improve with the ball in his hands 'cause Durant, his family and friends talking about it...
All those things can affect his performance, they can make him feel the Spurs underestimate his game...After all, nobody knows the nature and the processes of Kawhi's inconscient.

Nobody outside the Spurs you mean. Anyway, don't you think PATFO would ask Tim, Tony, Manu, Kawhi & LMA what they think about the possible signing first? Plus I really doubt Kawhi has any type of problem with the signing of a FA with KD's caliber which can help the team (from the get go) to increase the odds of winning more championships. Even if said FA plays the same position, Kawhi don't care much about individual recognition, but Championships. The way I see it, KD and Kawhi can easily swap positions between SG and SF. The defense should continue to work as efficient. KD's length is an asset and he's quick enough to guard SGs.

[itsamanuthree]

Thanks OP!

[cd021]

I think the series will come down to who's front court is more productive, both teams probably have the best front court rotations in the NBA.

Durant
Ibaka
Adams
Kanter
Collison

Vs.
Leonard
Duncan
Aldridge
Diaw
West
Boban

The key difference is that the Spurs FC players are more interchangeable and can be effective on both ends of the floor. Duncan can play 32 mpg against the Thunder, if necessary, which bodes well for the Spurs, who like to play big.

If OKC goes small with KD and Ibaka, the Spurs can match with Diaw and Aldridge and force KD to either guard Diaw in the post or expend energy on checking Leonard late in games.

LMA seems to overpower Ibaka in the post, I would go to that match up steadily. I think that there is an added benefit of if the spurs get out to a good start or take a solid lead, that KD and Westbrook will focus on getting their shots as opposed to helping get Ibaka open looks.

Spurs had alot of success in the first home game vs OKC with the West Aldridge lineup (with is an excellent offensive pairing) againt OKC, it would be interesting to see how that pairing fairs in this series.

[DPG21920]

Definitely - the front courts are going to be hypercritical on both ends. LMA dominating Ibaka would go a long way for the Spurs to win in 5.

Defensively, it's going to be tough for Tim/LMA if OKC gets in transition a lot. OKC big are all pretty incredible at running the floor. They all work hard, they are all agile & know exactly where to go in transition.

[DaBears]

Spurs should take this in 6.. I believe Green/Simmons will match up w/RW .. When tony is on the court he'll guard Roberson.. Khawi on KD.. TD matches up w/ Adams LAM on SI...
" THIS SERIES CANNOT START SOON ENOUGH "

[DPG21920]

It will be interesting to see how close the series mirrors the "barometers" I mentioned. Obviously, I pulled them somewhat out of my butt because while I looked at the regular season results and how the "barometers" ended up in the W's & L's, I know you can't take anything from the regular season.

[TheDoctor]

It will be interesting to see how close the series mirrors the "barometers" I mentioned. Obviously, I pulled them somewhat out of my butt because while I looked at the regular season results and how the "barometers" ended up in the W's & L's, I know you can't take anything from the regular season.
Indeed. Spurs/Thunder regular season numbers are shit. Advance stats have Andre Miller as our best player in those games (he only played 19mins tho). But IIRC those same numbers put David West as our 2nd best player.

[YGWHI]

I really doubt Kawhi has any type of problem with the signing of a FA with KD's caliber which can help the team (from the get go) to increase the odds of winning more championships.
Kawhi said he wants to play at MVP level on both ends, he also knows there are areas of his offensive game he needs to improve, and with Durant on the team, he won't have the opportunity to have the ball in his balls that much to take the next step on offense.

LMA, 30 years old, signed with the Spurs after several seasons being "the man" in Portland...he didn't care about it this season.

But not sure that a 24 years old player, who needs to improve his game, to have more seasons as the main guy to get better, is ready to take a back seat in order to sign other player. A thing like that can bother him/any young player.

[YGWHI]

I really doubt Kawhi has any type of problem with the signing of a FA with KD's caliber
Not just Kawhi. This rumor can make other Spurs players to feel expendable, they're real pros and know the business, but they also know that at least two or three of our guys will be traded in order to sign KD. It's human nature, no one likes to feel replaceable or insecure about future.

A playoffs series against OKC isn't the best time to have those negative feelings...just hate "the timming" of Lowe's article.

[TheDoctor]

Kawhi said he wants to play at MVP level on both ends, he also knows there are areas of his offensive game he needs to improve, and with Durant on the team, he won't have the opportunity to have the ball in his balls that much to take the next step on offense.

LMA, 30 years old, signed with the Spurs after several seasons being "the man" in Portland...he didn't care about it this season.

But not sure that a 24 years old player...

Yup, definitely you aren't.



Not just Kawhi. This rumor can make other Spurs players to feel expendable, they're real pros and know the business...

Exactly :toast You should have stopped there.

[YGWHI]

Yup, definitely you aren't.
:D

I'm tired of the assumption there aren't many young top NBA players posting here. Aren't you?

[TheDoctor]

:D

I'm tired of the assumption there aren't many young top NBA players posting here. Aren't you?

I gotta say that they're real pros and know the business... :lol

[ElNono]

Somewhat relevant:

Significant Active Officials -- road teams in Conference Semifinals 2007-2015 (sorted by away winning percentage):



OFFICIAL hW aW a%
FRAHER, PAT 2 4 0.667
LEWIS, ERIC 1 2 0.667
PHILLIPS, JASON 7 10 0.588
DAVIS, MARC 9 10 0.526
CAPERS, JAMES 10 10 0.500
SMITH, MICHAEL 5 5 0.500
CORBIN, SEAN 5 5 0.500
ZIELINSKI, GARY 1 1 0.500
CRAWFORD, DAN 15 14 0.483
STAFFORD, DERRICK 12 10 0.455
SPOONER, BILL 10 8 0.444
FOSTER, SCOTT 18 13 0.419
MALLOY, ED 12 8 0.400
KENNEDY, BILL 11 7 0.389
GARRETSON, RON 15 9 0.375
ZARBA, ZACH 7 4 0.364
GOBLE, JOHN 8 4 0.333
MCCUTCHEN, MONTY 21 10 0.323
CALLAHAN, MIKE 19 9 0.321
MAUER, KEN 20 9 0.310
WASHINGTON, TOM 18 8 0.308
BROTHERS, TONY 16 6 0.273
MOTT, RODNEY 5 1 0.167
WRIGHT, SEAN 6 1 0.143

Thanks :tu

[GSH]

Kawhi said he wants to play at MVP level on both ends, he also knows there are areas of his offensive game he needs to improve, and with Durant on the team, he won't have the opportunity to have the ball in his balls that much to take the next step on offense.

I've opened up three threads this morning, and you've polluted all of them with this constant KawhiKrew shit. It's fucking mental illness. You and 3-4 other aliases need to be banished to KawhiTalk. You'd be happier, and the rest of us would be much happier.

[YGWHI]

I've opened up three threads this morning, and you've polluted all of them with this constant KawhiKrew shit. It's fucking mental illness.
I wonder what's your mental status when people call "Kawhi retarded/autistic, he will never be a scorer, his defense is overrated"...every time they post here.


You and 3-4 other aliases
Damn...I'm an alt now?

[GSH]

Damn...I'm an alt now?

I don't know what you are. Send 3-4 aliases to KawhiTalk, and it doesn't matter if you're all the same person, or all different people. You jump to a lot of unwarranted conclusions. About everything.

[Perry Mason]

Not just Kawhi. This rumor can make other Spurs players to feel expendable, they're real pros and know the business, but they also know that at least two or three of our guys will be traded in order to sign KD. It's human nature, no one likes to feel replaceable or insecure about future.

A playoffs series against OKC isn't the best time to have those negative feelings...just hate "the timming" of Lowe's article.

Lowe's probably a little salty/embarrased since he almost picked the Rockets to win the West, and did pick them as GSW's #1 rival this year. Amazing how he fell for the flukeish 2nd seed they obtained last year, ignoring all other evidence that the Rockets could not reproduce the same performance.

And he then predicted that the Spurs "would disappoint". If the Spurs get to the WCF, then there is no disappointment. We'll see about that one. But thus far, a 67 win all-time Spurs team is not really a good starter for Lowe's prediction.

Since he parted with BS, he seems to have fallen off as an analyst.

[YGWHI]

Lowe's probably a little salty/embarrased since he almost picked the Rockets to win the West, and did pick them as GSW's #1 rival this year. Amazing how he fell for the flukeish 2nd seed they obtained last year, ignoring all other evidence that the Rockets could not reproduce the same performance.

And he then predicted that the Spurs "would disappoint". If the Spurs get to the WCF, then there is no disappointment. We'll see about that one. But thus far, a 67 win all-time Spurs team is not really a good starter for Lowe's prediction.

Since he parted with BS, he seems to have fallen off as an analyst.

The timming of the article is weird. All that "Spurs buzz" just before this series? Who were those team-executives telling him it...Guys from GS? Cleveland?

Hopefully, the Spurs sign Durant in the offseason, but I hate Lowe talking about it just before OKC-SA series.

[cascaders]

How is this even a discussion, spurs is gonna win 4 straight. its going to be a sweep.

[xellos88330]

Fuck it. Sweep them.

This post is on page 4 after all. :bobo

[PopTheGOAT]

While I think the Spurs will win in 6, some of you are dangerously overconfident.

I think the Spurs win this series, GS beats POR, then we see that SA v GS matchup that everyone's been foaming at the mouth for.

[DPG21920]

Some other interesting notes from NBA.com:

https://turnernbahangtime.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/20160428_sas_shooting.gif?w=1134&h=489

https://turnernbahangtime.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/20160428_okc_shooting.gif?w=1131&h=489

Thunder take a whopping 34% of their shots from 3 (to start the playoffs). For a team that doesn't really shoot it well from 3, that's staggering. Spurs defend the 3 better than most everyone so that's another thing to look at: Can you force them to take 3's, contest them and then rebound.

[Fireball]

While I think the Spurs will win in 6, some of you are dangerously overconfident.

I agree here ... I also find it interesting that while I am looking forward to Saturday the excitement has yet to set in ... #5 really calmed me down tbh

[DPG21920]

LMA/Kawhi (and TP) getting their mid-range game going would go a loooooong way to SA's offense getting back to where it was.

SA is thriving in the paint & we all saw the 3PT shot come back for SA against MEM. BUt SA still takes a lot of mid range shots (many uncontested) and they have to hit.

[FromWayDowntown]

Thunder take a whopping 34% of their shots from 3 (to start the playoffs). For a team that doesn't really shoot it well from 3, that's staggering.

That's particularly staggering when you consider that: (1) they have Westbrook, who -- given his volume of shots as a percentage of the team's total -- should tilt that number more dramatically into the paint with his drives; and (2) it's derived from a 5 game series against a Mavericks team that really only has one significant rim protector (Mejri) and he only played about 30% of Dallas' minutes at the center position during that series.

[DPG21920]

The Thunder’s effective field goal percentage of 48.1 percent was their lowest mark against any Western Conference opponent. Their turnover rate of 19.3 per 100 possessions was their highest mark against any Western Conference opponent and the highest any team had against the Spurs. OKC’s offensive rebounding percentage of 34.9 percent was also the highest any team had against the Spurs.

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2016/04/28/numbers-preview-spurs-thunder-2/?ls=iref:nba:serieshubs:top:modtop

So this goes towards what we are discussing in this thread. Spurs defend OKC about as well as anyone, but WB/Ibaka have still found success. Spurs defend them better than most, but they don't shut them down.

Rebounding/TO's, for obvious reasons discussed, are so big and SA has had some success there although OKC has done a good job rebounding against SA this year.

[PopTheGOAT]

I agree here ... I also find it interesting that while I am looking forward to Saturday the excitement has yet to set in ... #5 really calmed me down tbh
I've been pretty busy this week, so I haven't really had time to be excited. But, I've cleared my responsibilities now, and now I'm getting antsy :lol

The first 4 titles were the cake, 5 was just icing.

BUT DAMNIT I'M LOOKING FOR SOME SPRINKLES!

[T Park]

That's particularly staggering when you consider that: (1) they have Westbrook, who -- given his volume of shots as a percentage of the team's total -- should tilt that number more dramatically into the paint with his drives; and (2) it's derived from a 5 game series against a Mavericks team that really only has one significant rim protector (Mejri) and he only played about 30% of Dallas' minutes at the center position during that series.

Yeah and had the Mavericks had a decent rotation defense, this series would still be going.

Hell if they had Deron Williams IMO it wouldve gone 7. The Thunder only took these guys to the woodshed once. The rest of the time Dallas was ridiculously close.

[T Park]

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2016/04/28/numbers-preview-spurs-thunder-2/?ls=iref:nba:serieshubs:top:modtop

IMO that got skewed quite a bit in the last two games that meant squat. OKC got a LOT of offensive rebounds in that third game where there was no Duncan or Aldridge.

[T Park]

I think the series will come down to who's front court is more productive, both teams probably have the best front court rotations in the NBA.

Durant
Ibaka
Adams
Kanter
Collison

Vs.
Leonard
Duncan
Aldridge
Diaw
West
Boban

The key difference is that the Spurs FC players are more interchangeable and can be effective on both ends of the floor. Duncan can play 32 mpg against the Thunder, if necessary, which bodes well for the Spurs, who like to play big.

If OKC goes small with KD and Ibaka, the Spurs can match with Diaw and Aldridge and force KD to either guard Diaw in the post or expend energy on checking Leonard late in games.

LMA seems to overpower Ibaka in the post, I would go to that match up steadily. I think that there is an added benefit of if the spurs get out to a good start or take a solid lead, that KD and Westbrook will focus on getting their shots as opposed to helping get Ibaka open looks.

Spurs had alot of success in the first home game vs OKC with the West Aldridge lineup (with is an excellent offensive pairing) againt OKC, it would be interesting to see how that pairing fairs in this series.


Agree with a lot of this.

However, IMO its almost most beneficial to have Ibaka check Aldirdge high, and let Kawhi, Parker, and others have free reign to go to the basket ALA 2014 games 1+2.

the pick and pop game between parker, Manu, Kawhi, with Aldridge and Duncan, if it can get going, ends this series quickly, because it opens up the offense from there.

[r0drig0lac]

Spurs in 4

[benefactor]

I think too many think this will be easier than it will be in actuality.

As I've talked about ad nauseam the past few years, these assholes play with supreme confidence against the Spurs and unfortunately, it's not reciprocated, though having two in their prime stars, one of whom is at the level of the Thunder's two, should help with the latter.

On top of that, it's been obvious for years that they're jealous of the Spurs, dislike them and would love nothing more than to beat them. Rightly or wrongly, I'm sure they feel that had Westbrook been healthy throughout the playoffs in '13 and Ibaka played the first two games of the WCF in '14, they'd have been in the Finals. Throw in the possibility of Durant leaving and their motivation will be sky high. Not that the Spurs' won't be, for obvious reasons, but still.

The numbers might point to Spurs in 6, but I've seen too many alarming signs from this team (especially on the road) to feel confident in that, so I'll go Spurs in 7. Thunder in 6 wouldn't shock me though.
Most predictable take of this thread.

I'm s:cry afraid :cryf big bad :cryKC

[quentin_compson]

I think that OKC has a tendency to play down to their competition and that they are going to play better against the Spurs than they did against the Mavs. Rebounding is going to be key as the Thunder are the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA this season.

[MultiTroll]

Exceed their energy and we roll these punks.

[cd98]

To me, the fascinating thing will be to see who steps up to the plate in the Kawhi/Durrant match up (assuming Pop doesn’t opt to have Danny Green guard Durrant). If Kawhi guards Durrant, we can see who is the more mentally strong player. Kawhi surely wants to rub Durrant’s face on the court for calling him a system player, but can he capitalize in this series by owning Durrant? And Durrant, long thought of as an Beta male, will cement that image if he can’t back up his smack talk about Kawhi being a system player. I think Kawhi has more pressure in this scenario as everyone expects him to play tough D on Durrant (and get help from the #1 defensive team), but Durrant is not a defensive stopper, so if Kawhi abuses him, it will be somewhat less excusable as long as Durrant can put on a solid offensive showing.

[YGWHI]

I think Kawhi has more pressure in this scenario as everyone expects him to play tough D on Durrant (and get help from the #1 defensive team), but Durrant is not a defensive stopper, so if Kawhi abuses him, it will be somewhat less excusable as long as Durrant can put on a solid offensive showing.



Agree about the pressure...But OKC should put Roberson on Kawhi if they really want to play defense against him.

[TD 21]

Most predictable take of this thread.

I'm s:cry afraid :cryf big bad :cryKC

As usual, you contribute nothing of substance and are too dumb to realize how hypocritical you are. You claim I'm predictable, yet I can't remember seeing a post from you that didn't amount to whining about other posters.

[look_at_g_shred]

As usual, you contribute nothing of substance and are too dumb to realize how hypocritical you are. You claim I'm predictable, yet I can't remember seeing a post from you that didn't amount to whining about other posters.
https://67.media.tumblr.com/1f2026d1b6c5d532daa3b1da9941417b/tumblr_n4zit4zkuT1ru2hx7o1_250.gif

[ace3g]

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/702345330738638848/F1_Dg0wn_bigger.jpg Matt Moore CBS Verified account ‏@MattMooreCBS (https://twitter.com/MattMooreCBS)

The Thunder win IF…http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25571192/six-things-that-must-happen-for-okc-to-pull-upset-over-the-spurs … (https://t.co/v71stX2mmP) The Spurs win If… http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25571261/seven-things-that-must-happen-for-the-spurs-to-take-down-the-thunder … (https://t.co/NEMmiWe8Tt)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChPiFM9VEAAgwny.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChPiFM8UUAAfSy_.jpg

[ace3g]

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/720696350325649408/MLCVssq6_bigger.jpg San Antonio Spurs Verified account ‏@spurs (https://twitter.com/spurs)

AT&T and @PapaJohns_SA (https://twitter.com/PapaJohns_SA) are helping us Paint the @attcenter (https://twitter.com/attcenter) Silver & Black tomorrow for Game 1!

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChOuywyU0AAs-gj.jpg

[benefactor]

As usual, you contribute nothing of substance and are too dumb to realize how hypocritical you are. You claim I'm predictable, yet I can't remember seeing a post from you that didn't amount to whining about other posters.
:lol calling a take where you type out a novel while simultaneously treading water in a lake of your own tears "substance."

Me calling you a fucking girl is not being a whiner, it's just pointing out the obvious.

:cry gutless worms
:cry okc in 6

[dabom]

I wonder what's your mental status when people call "Kawhi retarded/autistic, he will never be a scorer, his defense is overrated"...every time they post here.


Damn...I'm an alt now?

You made it bro. You got haters on your jock now. Me calling you "rookie of the year" ticked people off. :lol

[cd021]

Agree with a lot of this.

However, IMO its almost most beneficial to have Ibaka check Aldirdge high, and let Kawhi, Parker, and others have free reign to go to the basket ALA 2014 games 1+2.

the pick and pop game between parker, Manu, Kawhi, with Aldridge and Duncan, if it can get going, ends this series quickly, because it opens up the offense from there.

Aldrige seems to bully Ibaka in the post, and has no issue getting his shot off over him. I would mix pick and pops in but i would like to see LMA go right at Ibaka around 5 or six times a game. The post ups may be more effective with West/ Diaw paired with LMA because of the extra spacing they provide. OKC would have to choose between doubling LMA in the post our leaving two good mid range shooters open.

[TD 21]

:lol calling a take where you type out a novel while simultaneously treading water in a lake of your own tears "substance."

Me calling you a fucking girl is not being a whiner, it's just pointing out the obvious.

:cry gutless worms
:cry okc in 6

It sure as hell beats being a fat, slovenly 40 year old, playing internet tough guy and repeatedly spewing antiquated childish insults and thinking they're funny.

[benefactor]

It sure as hell beats being a fat, slovenly 40 year old, playing internet tough guy and repeatedly spewing antiquated childish insults and thinking they're funny.
You forgot "inbred hick." That one is my favorite. Kinda disappointed though...stealing words from Harlem is a new low for you.

Seriously though...I could pound out takes like some cats do in here(as evidenced by the recognition I received back in 2010)...but I don't really care anymore. This place is more entertainment for me than anything. You rolled in here desperately wanting to be somebody...wanting to be recognized...and occasionally you put some good takes out there. I just did what came natural and got that recognition without all the begging that you felt you needed to do.

Now you come here when you see the optimal opportunity to unload your feelings. You put on Diary of Jane and start rolling out that big ball of salt filled liquid like you are ready to replenish the worlds oceans. You just can help yourself. The feels get the best of you...you log on to ST and go to work. But hell, I guess all of us need a role...so you keep doing you breh. I might even back off of calling you out for it.

[TD 21]

You forgot "inbred hick." That one is my favorite. Kinda disappointed though...stealing words from Harlem is a new low for you.

Seriously though...I could pound out takes like some cats do in here(as evidenced by the recognition I received back in 2010)...but I don't really care anymore. This place is more entertainment for me than anything. You rolled in here desperately wanting to be somebody...wanting to be recognized...and occasionally you put some good takes out there. I just did what came natural and got that recognition without all the begging that you felt you needed to do.

Now you come here when you see the optimal opportunity to unload your feelings. You put on Diary of Jane and start rolling out that big ball of salt filled liquid like you are ready to replenish the worlds oceans. You just can help yourself. The feels get the best of you...you log on to ST and go to work. But hell, I guess all of us need a role...so you keep doing you breh. I might even back off of calling you out for it.

Antiquated is a Harlem word? I could see if I said tbh . . .

To each their own, but I've never understood why anyone would frequent a message board and not offer their opinion.

I never begged, I just pointed out that there was an old boys club feeling to this place and there was, at the time. I've never minded being called out; on the contrary, I enjoy a good debate as long as it's relevant.

[benefactor]

I think too many think this will be easier than it will be in actuality.

As I've talked about ad nauseam the past few years, these assholes play with supreme confidence against the Spurs and unfortunately, it's not reciprocated, though having two in their prime stars, one of whom is at the level of the Thunder's two, should help with the latter.

On top of that, it's been obvious for years that they're jealous of the Spurs, dislike them and would love nothing more than to beat them. Rightly or wrongly, I'm sure they feel that had Westbrook been healthy throughout the playoffs in '13 and Ibaka played the first two games of the WCF in '14, they'd have been in the Finals. Throw in the possibility of Durant leaving and their motivation will be sky high. Not that the Spurs' won't be, for obvious reasons, but still.

The numbers might point to Spurs in 6, but I've seen too many alarming signs from this team (especially on the road) to feel confident in that, so I'll go Spurs in 7. Thunder in 6 wouldn't shock me though.
:lol:lol

[ViceCity86]

What I thought about Blunders all season long.Once you get past the hero ballers,their roster is trash.The mainstream media dolts like JVG,Jalen Rose,Barkley have all pumped them to having deepest roster in the league.:lol

I expect them to get hot and play well in Oklahoma.This series reminds me of 2 years where Spurs dominated every home game.Hard seeing OKC winning in SA with Spurs so dominant at home and Thunder being so flawed.

[DPG21920]

Basically, here is 3 barometers to look for IMO:

Rebounding: 11 offensive rebounds for OKC or less

Free Throws: 20 free throws attempted for OKC or less

Turn Overs: 12 turn overs for SA or less

If the Spurs get 0 of those 3, they lose the game.

If the Spurs get 1 of those 3, they lose a close game.

If the Spurs get 2 of those 3, they win the game.

If the Spurs get 3 of those 3, they win the game big.

Game 1 results:

11 offensive rebounds for OKC. 21 Free Throws for OKC. 8 Turn overs for SA. Basically got all 3 during the guts of the game and combined with the great shooting, they won the game big.

[benefactor]

Antiquated is a Harlem word? I could see if I said tbh . . .

I didn't even say it was antiquated. Thanks for proving me right.:lol

[will_spurs]

LMA/Kawhi (and TP) getting their mid-range game going would go a loooooong way to SA's offense getting back to where it was.

Happy?

[DPG21920]

Happy?

Yes?

[will_spurs]

Yes?

Good :D

[DPG21920]

Well, OKC definitely has adjustments to make, but unlike the Dallas series where OKC shot really, really well from 3, they honestly don't have the personnel to do that consistently. Spurs defend the 3PT shot so well & Roberson kills OKC's spacing so bad, they will have to change.

While Morrow/Waiters certainly help, I still think it's going to be tough for OKC to solve the issues because Pop will dare those guys to beat you before he really changes things up.

OKC will have to win because of offensive rebounds, Spurs being sloppy and Spurs going cold. They really need 2 of those to happen IMO (along with getting to the free throw line).

Of course, Morrow or Watiers could droop 20 and those games will be tough, but can they do it over and over? The entire years worth of data says no, but it's the only logical move at this point.

I'm also worried about Ibaka. I don't think it was game plan to let him go off. He's agile and can space the floor all the way to the 3PT line. He shot amazing vs Dallas and is shooting great in game 1. Does not seem like a fluke and Spurs have to keep him down. If OKC gets a 3rd 18-20PT scorer in their SL vs Spurs that could spell big time trouble especially in games where WB/Durant are scoring (which is likely to happen).

[DPG21920]

https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/702345330738638848/F1_Dg0wn_bigger.jpg Matt Moore CBS Verified account ‏@MattMooreCBS (https://twitter.com/MattMooreCBS)

The Thunder win IF…http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25571192/six-things-that-must-happen-for-okc-to-pull-upset-over-the-spurs … (https://t.co/v71stX2mmP) The Spurs win If… http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25571261/seven-things-that-must-happen-for-the-spurs-to-take-down-the-thunder … (https://t.co/NEMmiWe8Tt)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChPiFM9VEAAgwny.jpg

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ChPiFM8UUAAfSy_.jpg

Not sure how I missed this, but Moore with some really bads again. In the OKC piece, he basically says SA "has no one else to guard KD" if Kawhi is on Westbrook. How can someone who prides himself on being knowledgable completely undersell Danny Green?

It's biased at worst and just really ignorant at best.

[TD 21]

:lol:lol

Unless I missed something, that only counts for one game.



I didn't even say it was antiquated. Thanks for proving me right.:lol

It's far and away the least commonly used word in the quote.


You're a walking cliche.

[benefactor]

You're a walking cliche.
Could be worse. I could be "the guy friend" to every girl I've ever known.

[BillMc]

One slight worry to take from Game 1 is that Kawhi picked up 3 fouls in 22 minutes of play guarding Westbrook. In a more competitive game this could be a real factor against the Thunderefs if KL spends the majority of his time on Westbrook and continues to amass fouls at that rate.

That said, I'm too lazy (and I admit it) to look up who KL fouled and whether it was a product of him guarding RW or just happenstance.

[BillMc]

Game 1 results:

11 offensive rebounds for OKC. 21 Free Throws for OKC. 8 Turn overs for SA. Basically got all 3 during the guts of the game and combined with the great shooting, they won the game big.

Good call.

[hater]

This series just became very simple. If kawhi shows up for most of rest of series spurs win. If he dissapears, spurs lose. If he dissapears he also becomes a legit playoff choker. Missed FTs vs Miami, getting his shit pushed in by Barnes, and choking vs meth cookers

[SAGirl]

One slight worry to take from Game 1 is that Kawhi picked up 3 fouls in 22 minutes of play guarding Westbrook. In a more competitive game this could be a real factor against the Thunderefs if KL spends the majority of his time on Westbrook and continues to amass fouls at that rate.

That said, I'm too lazy (and I admit it) to look up who KL fouled and whether it was a product of him guarding RW or just happenstance.
The first two were on Russ. The third one I don't remember.

[BillMc]

The first two were on Russ. The third one I don't remember.

Many thanks. :bobo

[DaBears]

Im not sure about this. But has anyone heard or noticed kawhi Leonard looks a bit off like he is injured or hurt. I was thinking that since the fall in game 1 st play.. I know he played well in game 1 but still didnt look right, maybe playing off adrenaline. And in GM2 he looked at bit slow, he wasnt able to blow by people.. i'll give credit to Roberson but i dont see him stopping kawhi like a top 10 defender.. Then again It could just be Kawhi had an off game.

[FvckMavs]

I was having the same thought when I watched game 2. He held his hamstring for a second after that fall. He also didn't look right when he missed an easy layup at 9:00 in first quarter of game 2.


Im not sure about this. But has anyone heard or noticed kawhi Leonard looks a bit off like he is injured or hurt. I was thinking that since the fall in game 1 st play.. I know he played well in game 1 but still didnt look right, maybe playing off adrenaline. And in GM2 he looked at bit slow, he wasnt able to blow by people.. i'll give credit to Roberson but i dont see him stopping kawhi like a top 10 defender.. Then again It could just be Kawhi had an off game.