NBA.COM Writers Preview Spurs-Thunder

[BillMc]

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2016/04/27/blogtable-thoughts-on-spurs-thunder/

> Game 1 of the Spurs-Thunder conference semifinals series is Saturday. Who or what is the X factor in this series? And which team do you predict will advance?

Steve Aschburner, NBA.com (http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/tag/steve-aschburner/): Danny Green, as another Spurs’ on-ball defender, is my X factor. When an opponent has two explosive scoring stars such as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, it means some San Antonio player has to step up besides Kawhi Leonard. Green has the size to match up with Westbrook and the fundamentals to make deny or bother Durant while chewing up some shot clock. He also can force OKC’s guys to work at the other end if he’s able to contribute offensively. Green’s 40 percent shooting from the arc against Memphis was a nice start, a bump from his 33 percent of the regular season. Where does it all end? Barring any more of these playoff-convulsing injuries we’ve been getting, I think San Antonio advances in six or seven games.

Fran Blinebury, NBA.com (http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/tag/fran-blinebury/): Serge Ibaka is my X factor. When he’s running the floor, guarding the lane and also knocking down jumpers, he’s an athletic force that can be tough for the Spurs to handle. WithKevin Durant and Russell Westbrook demanding so much attention from defenses, Ibaka is the third weapon that can be a difference-maker. But we haven’t seen much of that guy all season. Spurs in 7.

Scott Howard-Cooper, NBA.com (http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/tag/scott-howard-cooper/): That guy trying to break into the Spurs rotation, Tim Duncan. That’s a little extreme, but Duncan did have a reduced role at just 20.3 minutes per game in the first round because of matchups and San Antonio blowout wins. Now comes the chance to face an opponent with more bigs —Serge Ibaka, Steven Adams, Enes Kanter — that should mean a larger presence for Duncan. A big contribution will be a step toward the Spurs advancing.

Shaun Powell, NBA.com (http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/tag/shaun-powell/): This sounds weird, but the X-factors are named Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. For over a decade they were the backbone of the franchise. Right now, none are playing efficiently and for the most part are backup singers to Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge. That must change ASAP. San Antonio will need more from at least two of those three against a hungry OKC team, or else Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will be a series away from returning to the NBA Finals.

John Schuhmann, NBA.com (http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/tag/john-schuhmann/): Danny Green is the X-factor. The ball will find the open man in the Spurs’ offense and that open man is often Green. He had a rough regular season, shooting 33 percent from 3-point range (27 percent in March and April), but was 6-for-13 in the first round. He’ll also be the primary defender on Russell Westbrook, so his ability to get back in transition, fight through screens, and stay in front of the Thunder point guard will be critical.

Sekou Smith, NBA.com (http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/tag/sekou-smith/): The dueling wild cards in this series are salty Kevin Durant and raging Russell Westbrook. The Thunder superstars (sorry Mark Cuban, they’ve got two) are playing with monstrous chips on their shoulders these days and nothing would delight them more than to upset all the conference finals plans we’ve all been talking about for months. That said, I’m picking the Spurs to advance in a knock down, drag out six-game affair.

Ian Thomsen, NBA.com (http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/tag/ian-thomsen/): This one is going to be all about defense. The Spurs are the league’s most cohesive and versatile defensive team. Will the Thunder be able to match San Antonio’s passion and attention to detail? I’m afraid not.

Lang Whitaker, NBA.com’s All Ball blog (http://allball.blogs.nba.com/): Having seen both of these teams in person over the last two weeks, the one part of the match-up that I can’t reconcile is how will the Spurs stop Russell Westbrook?You haven’t seen elite speed until you’ve watched Westbrook in person — he literally flies down the court, his feet barely touching the floor, like he’s running across the surface of a lake. And i just don’t know how San Antonio matches that speed. I guess you could try Kawhi Leonard against him, although I’d rather save Leonard for Kevin Durant. Either way, the Spurs have a matchup problem waiting to happen.

[313]

Mostly good takes. This team goes as Danny Green goes, historically. Kawhi's increase in 3 point volume and % has made up for it a bit this year, but our offense would be a lot more potent if Green has a throwback playoff run. It starts here, last round was a scrimmage. The Grizzlies were 29th in guarding the three in the RS IIRC.

[SAGirl]

^^^ Thanks for sharing. Personally my xfactor was LMA bc he will have his work cut out for him against a platoon of athletic bigs. We know KaWhi and Danny will show up defensively (the question is with Danny offensively and hopefully his good shooting continues). I am nor worried about them. LMA I am not worried about much either, but he will be tested this round and he will have to step up.

After LMA, I was inclined to pick the big 3 as the factor bc as the writer above point out they have been inconsistent offensively and not especially efficient. They always bring the fight IMO, but it may come down to what they have in the tank. Okc is a young athletic team capable of presenting problems for all 3.

[All Mighty Janitor]

I'm worried about the Westbrook post ups even with green on him. If Durant is still struggling with his shot like in the Dallas series I'd like Kawhi to guard Westbrook. Kawhi would neutralize at lot of WestBrooks game and it would force Durant to be a playmaker which he's been iffy at doing at times. But as long as Parker stays of Westbrook, especially with Roberson on the floor, I won't complain.

[Chinook]

Green playing in his 2014 WCF form would almost guarantee the Spurs a win. Remember, he didn't even shoot that well for most of the series, but his defense was top-notch. The thing that was so great is that Pop would put him on whichever role-player was having a good game, and Danny would take them out of the series. First it was Fisher. Then it was Butler. Finally it was Jackson. That versatility allowed Pop to keep Kawhi focused on the main Durant while letting Russ go boom or most bust against the other guys.

That said, I don't consider Danny an X-factor, because I don't see any reason for his D not being there. I'll say that West is mine. He is absolutely going to have to figure out a way to survive against Kanter, because Pop isn't going to switch him out for Boban unless it's almost too late. If David can limit the bench's size disadvantage, the Thunder are nearly dead in the water. If he can't the Spurs will be hurting quite a bit.

[TheDoctor]

Lang Whitaker :lmao

[coachmac87]

Lang Whitaker :lmao

Reminds me of Apo...somebody who just recently starting paying attention to the league and acts like he knows what he's talking about.

[TheDoctor]

Reminds me of Apo...somebody who just recently starting paying attention to the league and acts like he knows what he's talking about.

I mean, how do they even approved that? Pure disaster.

[mookie2001]

People still think Ibaka is good huh? Ever since he started shooting threes 3 years ago his points rebounds blocks and %s have all gone into the toilet. At least prop up Kanter he gets 20 and 18 every other game. Ibaka is a Guaransheed negative (-) player for OKC

[DBMethos]

Lang Whitaker :lmao

I know right? Like we've never beaten Westbrick before.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VZJKUprWg98/U4qpIL9PuWI/AAAAAAAAjEk/8BeP_mKrruA/s1600/4.gif

[Slomo]

Scary.

http://www.spurstalk.com/Slomo/Westbrook_lake.jpg

[Budkin]

Lang Whitaker :lmao

[TheDoctor]

Scary.

http://www.spurstalk.com/Slomo/Westbrook_lake.jpg
LMAOOOOOO !!

[timtonymanurich]

It might just be me... but Is Pop just crazy enough to unleash the speedster Jonathan Simmonds on to WestBrick?
Speed can cancel out speed. Course WestBrick will get his late-teens, and 20's scoring, but not after 6-20(ish) shooting. It's surprising to me that no one has sat WestBrick down and chewed him out for his shitstorm shot selection. HUGE advantage for us.

OKC always seems to "flip the 'JORDAN' switch" when they play "Big-Brother" San Antonio, and play WELL above their abilities. But Pop's team defense is smothering. We can and will limit OKC just not fully stop them. I expect this to go 5-6 games.

[tmtcsc]

Interesting but flawed takes imo. The Spurs have won without DG making a high percentage of his shots. When he does make them, things go much smoother and blowouts ensue. And as far as Westbrook is concerned, do these guys think he's gotten faster? This will be the 3rd match up in four years and his speed has always been taken in to consideration. There's nothing new here except Kanter and Waiters. I doubt they will get many shot attempts. KD and Westbrook will be gunning like crazy and getting worn out as usual. Spurs in 5.

[TD 21]

I'll say that West is mine. He is absolutely going to have to figure out a way to survive against Kanter, because Pop isn't going to switch him out for Boban unless it's almost too late. If David can limit the bench's size disadvantage, the Thunder are nearly dead in the water. If he can't the Spurs will be hurting quite a bit.

I don't know why so many presume West will automatically be the primary Kanter defender. It's proven that he can't defend him in the post or keep him off the offensive glass. He's obviously not the answer and Marjanovic is probably a last resort.

This is the series where Duncan will be most needed and as such, I expect him to be the primary Kanter defender. He'll still come out at the under 6 timeout, only in this series, he'll re-enter for Aldridge 3-4 minutes later and come back out again when Kanter does (probably around mid quarter).

[benefactor]

Scary.

http://www.spurstalk.com/Slomo/Westbrook_lake.jpg
Slomo photoshop sighting.:wow

[tholdren]

I know right? Like we've never beaten Westbrick before.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VZJKUprWg98/U4qpIL9PuWI/AAAAAAAAjEk/8BeP_mKrruA/s1600/4.gif
ghetto ball do what ghetto ball does

[TheDoctor]

It might just be me... but Is Pop just crazy enough to unleash the speedster Jonathan Simmonds on to WestBrick?
Speed can cancel out speed. Course WestBrick will get his late-teens, and 20's scoring, but not after 6-20(ish) shooting. It's surprising to me that no one has sat WestBrick down and chewed him out for his shitstorm shot selection. HUGE advantage for us...

Interesting, but from a Spurs POV, you don't to match OKC's speed. Is the other way around, the Spurs will look to slow the pace down.

[apalisoc_9]

I don't know why so many presume West will automatically be the primary Kanter defender. It's proven that he can't defend him in the post or keep him off the offensive glass. He's obviously not the answer and Marjanovic is probably a last resort.

This is the series where Duncan will be most needed and as such, I expect him to be the primary Kanter defender. He'll still come out at the under 6 timeout, only in this series, he'll re-enter for Aldridge 3-4 minutes later and come back out again when Kanter does (probably around mid quarter).

That's very little rest for a 40 year old. I'd probably take him out at the 7-8 min mark and reinsert him when Kanter subs in at the 3-4 minute mark. Even better is if he comes.off the bench and just matches kanter imo. But thats not going to happen.

[elemento]

To me the x-factor is Ibaka per usual.

i'm not afraid of KD and WB having Green and Leonard. But Ibaka has always been a pain in the ass for SA, whether we win or lose against them. They played much better when Ibaka steps up against us.

But now we have Aldridge and Ibaka will have his hands full guarding him.

I'm confident about this series tbh. I think we finish them in 5. 2-0 @ home, split the games in OKC to finish @ home.

[TD 21]

That's very little rest for a 40 year old. I'd probably take him out at the 7-8 min mark and reinsert him when Kanter subs in at the 3-4 minute mark. Even better is if he comes.off the bench and just matches kanter imo. But thats not going to happen.

He'll be extremely well rested going into games 1 and 3. From 3 on, depending on how long it takes, it's asking quite a bit, but like I said, this is when he'll be needed most. Aldridge could also take on some of the load, but obviously they need him more offensively.

If/when, he won't play significant minutes against not just the Warriors, but the Cavs, too. They've gone small off the bench, with a combination of Love and Frye, in spot minutes, playing backup center.

[CGD]

X factor is Ibaka for me. If he continues to drift/defer on both sides of the ball like he's done this whole year, then we're in good shape.

[Sec24Row7]

Last time this forum was so confident we would beat the Thunder, we got backdoor swept.

[thiste]

I know right? Like we've never beaten Westbrick before.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VZJKUprWg98/U4qpIL9PuWI/AAAAAAAAjEk/8BeP_mKrruA/s1600/4.gif

That play was awesome when it happened. But right now what makes me laugh the most is seeing the 9 seconds left on the shot clock, didn't remember that :p

[BillMc]

Scary.

http://www.spurstalk.com/Slomo/Westbrook_lake.jpg
:lol

[T Park]

The Thunder have gotten worse since 14, especially the bench, while the Spurs have improved.

Why is this so hard for people to see? The only players that killed the Spurs then we're guys like Fisher and Reggie Jackson, neither of whom are there. Kanter? Big f'ing deal, Waiters? Yeah ok.

[Fireball]

Enes Kanter is an X-Factor for me ...

Regarding Westbrook .... I think DG does a good job on Durant as well so that Kawhi can take on Russ

[DeRozan m8]

Lets not forget this classic

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/Y1O3pq0KyXQ/hqdefault.jpg

http://thacover2.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/leonard-westbrook-block.png


:lobt2::lobt2::lobt2::lobt2::lobt2:

[ElNono]

My main concern is that with Ibaka in the middle, Tony is going to be scared/jumper Tony... so then the question becomes who's Pop going to start in place of Duncan in order to move Ibaka away from the basket... Boris hasn't been shooting well from downtown, IIRC...

[pookenstein]

That play was awesome when it happened. But right now what makes me laugh the most is seeing the 9 seconds left on the shot clock, didn't remember that :p

It's the game clock and they were down 4. They had to take a quick shot.

[100%duncan]

Last time this forum was so confident we would beat the Thunder, we got backdoor swept.

Ohhhhh. Why did we lose 6 because a poster here took a shit during the 1st quarter?

[polandprzem]

No doubt to me Green is X-factor. Not only he needs to be superb on D with Westbrook or Durant, also he needs to rebound the ball to match backcourt rebs of OKC when esp we have parker on the floor. And he needs to sink that treys cause IMO OKC gonna clog the lane hard. Let the bigs run and try to make closeouts

[Sec24Row7]

Ohhhhh. Why did we lose 6 because a poster here took a shit during the 1st quarter?

Did I imply causality?

[Blake]

Serge Ibaka is the guy that worries me.

I think the Spurs bench when Durant/Westbrook are out is the x factor. They need to put some scoring distance on them.