One of the best election models predicts a Trump victory. Its creator doesn't believe

[ducks]

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/14/11854512/trump-election-models-political-science

[Pelicans78]

I think he has a good chance of winning against a deeply flawed candidate like Hillary.

[boutons_deux]

I think he has a good chance of winning against a deeply flawed candidate like Hillary.

nope, he's loses women by even more than the usual Repug asshole,

loses blacks,

loses Hispanics (rapists, criminals),

loses Muslims (6M of them in USA)

lose most of the moderates and independents.

He's already Krytponite for the Repug establishment.

Trash isn't "deeply flawed"? :lol

[Pelicans78]

nope, he's loses women by even more than the usual Repug asshole,

loses blacks,

loses Hispanics (rapists, criminals),

loses Muslims (6M of them in USA)

lose most of the moderates and independents.

He's already Krytponite for the Repug establishment.

Trash isn't "deeply flawed"? :lol

They're both deeply flawed. They both have terrible issues to deal with. But it also gives both candidates decent chances to win. If he doesn't have a decent lead coming out of the convention, he won't win.

[boutons_deux]

both candidates decent chances to win

:lol

[Pelicans78]

:lol

You predict a landslide?

[boutons_deux]

You predict a landslide?

yes, 60 - 40, maybe more.

[Pelicans78]

yes, 60 - 40, maybe more.

I think it's 50/50 right now. The debates will decide it most likely.

[DMX7]

I'm predicting a decisive Hillary victory but this is an unusual year. It's not impossible that enough people, even those who like myself know that Trump is liar, could decide to be a little wild and pick Trump to blow up the "establishment" way of things that Hillary embodies.

But right now, I am not supporting either candidate.

[boutons_deux]

The debates will decide it

Americans who decide how to vote based on debates primarily, while ignoring experience, policies, record, etc are fucking stupid, of which there are 10Ms who qualify.

[ducks]

Clinton has bad experience and we know what she will do
trump we know will be better

[boutons_deux]

Clinton has bad experience and we know what she will do
trump we know will be better

Trash won't even try to standup to the neocons/MIC/DeepState, anymore than Hillary.

[rmt]

Lots of states up in the air this year because of the two candidates' high unfavorables. The latest polls (about/within a month or so):

Arizona - Clinton 41/Trump 45 +4 Trump
Florida - Clinton 44/Trump 45 +1 Trump
Michigan - Clinton 43/Trump 39 +4 Clinton
New Hampshire - Clinton 44/Trump 44 tie
North Carolina - Clinton 38/Trump 42 +4 Trump
Ohio - Clinton 44/Trump 39 +5 Clinton
Oregon - Clinton 42/Trump 44 +2 Trump
Pennsylvania - Clinton 44/Trump 44 tie
Utah - Clinton 32/Trump 32 tie - Romney needs to keep his mouth shut
Virginia - Clinton 45/Trump 41 +4 Clinton

Oregon surprises me - maybe an aberration. Utah :-(

http://www.electionprojection.com/presidential-elections.php

[rmt]

Trash won't even try to standup to the neocons/MIC/DeepState, anymore than Hillary.

Remember Trump is about nationalism, America First, and knows we're broke.

[boutons_deux]

Remember Trump is about nationalism, America First, and knows we're broke.

America ain't broke.

Trash will push the violent, murderous American Empire and world-wide garrisoning as hard as any neocon. And couldn't stop it if he tried.

[SpursforSix]

loses Hispanics (rapists, criminals),



:wow

There are plenty of white and black criminals and rapists. Why are you singling out Hispanics?

[rmt]

America ain't broke.

Trash will push the violent, murderous American Empire and world-wide garrisoning as hard as any neocon. And couldn't stop it if he tried.

We are $19 trillion (soon to be $21 trillion) in debt, much more coming in unfunded liabilities (SS, Medicare, etc), pensions going belly up, retiree healthcare liabilities, states which accepted Obamacare's Medicaid - bills are coming up as feds withdraw from funding, etc. GDP at a paltry 0.8 and a mere 38,000 jobs in May.

[boutons_deux]

:wow

There are plenty of white and black criminals and rapists. Why are you singling out Hispanics?

red/slave states have pretty much banned ex-felons from voting, for life, since they love democracy and the Constitution so dearly.

[SpursforSix]

red/slave state have pretty much banned ex-felons from voting, for life.

what the fuck is an "ex-felon"?

[TheSanityAnnex]

red/slave state have pretty much banned ex-felons from voting, for life.

If they were to get back their voting rights they would get back their right to own a firearm too correct?

[boutons_deux]

If they were to get back their voting rights they would get back their right to own a firearm too correct?

If they were non-violent crimes, sure why not?

[spankadelphia]

boutonanal glibly doesn't mention the incredibly high recidivism rate among felons. Almost all of them go on to become career criminals.

[boutons_deux]

:wow

There are plenty of white and black criminals and rapists. Why are you singling out Hispanics?

... that was a reference to Trash's bigoted, xenophobic, baseless ranting about Mexicans.

[hater]

The best election model is mine. And I predicted that shit in January :lol

:lol wanna bes finally jumping on my wagon :lol

[manu2timdynasty]

The best election model is mine. And I predicted that shit in January :lol

:lol wanna bes finally jumping on my wagon :lol

Surprise suprise...Really hater did you think you could return and I not find you? Truthfully, I admire your complete disregard for passed humiliations. After becoming known on the Spurs forum as a curse because the minute you predicted a team would win, they flamed out in spectacular fashion; you still lack self awareness and boast of your ability to foretell the future. Just this year alone, you made threads saying memphis was gonna be a nightmare-they got swept, then another thread saying why are the Spurs worried about OKC? They beat us, then after they beat us another thread throwing your support behind OKC. After OKC went up 3-1 you were padding yourself on the back calling yourself poster of the year. After OKC lost you cowardly dissapeared, and the general consensus was:
https://s31.postimg.org/f0s1izvij/Photo_Grid_1464704080751_1.jpg

[CosmicCowboy]

Jesus Christ you're fucking stupid. Tsa is a genius in comparison.

Everything she said was an undeniable fact.

You are the stupid one here.

[CosmicCowboy]

You know cocksucker, i get that you all share a brain. But I take it you fancy yourself as some sort of intellectual. If you're going to pretend to be "intelligent" in arguments without adding any context to them, then you're no better than racist retardmt who is completely incapable of forming any semblance of an individual coherent thought.

Instead of vomiting insults like an insecure 7th grader that just learned how to cuss, why don't you specifically identify and rebut what you claim she said that wasn't true?

[Th'Pusher]

Instead of vomiting insults like an insecure 7th grader that just learned how to cuss, why don't you specifically identify and rebut what you claim she said that wasn't true?

It's not that anything she said is inaccurate. It's all just cherry picked right wing talking points. For example, refeencing the 38k new jobs in May while disregarding all he previous months. To draw any conclusions from that would be fucking stupid and using it as a political talking point is intellectually dishonest.

She does it all the time, and Sean Hanituy level drivel.

You can stack the US economy up against any in the world right now and the reality is we're looking pretty good.

[Reck]

Trump cant hang with Hillary. polls right now are reflecting that. He's plummeting like a rock and she's holding steady.

Their unfavorables are abysmal but Trump's keep going up like a rocket (70% atm) and Hillary has been stuck at 55% forever.

[boutons_deux]

You can stack the US economy up against any in the world right now and the reality is we're looking pretty good.

The US economy is stagnant or decreasing. Foreigners net purchases of US equities is super negative. Fed is backing off rate increase. etc, etc.

Consumer spending did go up, but I bet it's mostly debt-financed spending, which is bad.

[Th'Pusher]

The US economy is stagnant or decreasing. Foreigners net purchases of US equities is super negative. Fed is backing of rate increase. etc, etc.

Consumer spending did go up, but I bet it's mostly debt-financed spending, which is bad.

I'm not saying there are not structural issues with the economy that need to be addressed. I'm just saying that As compared to other first word economies, the US is performing better than most.

[cd021]

I think he has a good chance of winning against a deeply flawed candidate like Hillary.

Hillary is deeply flawed but there is a great chance that she wins. There has been talk of red states switching blue because of Trumps ridiculously high unfavorably ratings. Hilary could easily go 95% 85% 75% in the Black/ Hispanic/ and Asians demos which would be even better than Obama in '12.

Then there is the Woman problem. Trump has an unfavorably of 75% with women and 50% with republican women. Fivethirtyeight.com mentioned that he would have to win something like 80% of the white male vote. On a podcast they mentioned;

Regan- 60% of white males (made of 1/2 of all voters)
Romney-59% of white males (made up 1/3 of all voters)

Basically any states with a significant minority populations will be difficult for him to win. He could easily lose Florida (nearly 40% of the population are minorities) and might get crushed in Virginia (more than 1/3 of the population are minorities)

[cd021]

Trump cant hang with Hillary. polls right now are reflecting that. He's plummeting like a rock and she's holding steady.

Their unfavorables are abysmal but Trump's keep going up like a rocket (70% atm) and Hillary has been stuck at 55% forever.

Post Orlando, it seems that Trump has free falling. 70% now have an unfavorable view of him and 90% of Hispanics have an unfavorable view of him.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/15/negative-views-of-donald-trump-just-hit-a-new-high-7-in-10-americans/

[cd021]

I think it's 50/50 right now. The debates will decide it most likely.

I have a hard time believing that it will be closer than 60/40 Hillary, this could be a Waterloo for Republicans. Going forward; Hispanics may be permanently Democrat like Black people. A debate could be an absolute disaster; he cannot help himself. During his post Orlando press conference he claimed that the shooter was from Afghanistan but he is actually from Queens, which is where Trumps from. It makes him sound like he has no idea what he is talking about. Then claiming that everyone agrees with his Muslim ban despite most Democrats and Republicans lawmakers denouncing the plan. He also claims that he can get Mexico to pay for a wall but Mexicans will most likely be apart of the constructions :lol then claims that a judges from Indiana is a hater and out to get him because his parents are of Mexican descent.

Clinton just has to stick to her talking points and wait for Trump to shoot himself in the foot.

[florige]

I have a hard time believing that it will be closer than 60/40 Hillary, this could be a Waterloo for Republicans. Going forward; Hispanics may be permanently Democrat like Black people. A debate could be an absolute disaster; he cannot help himself. During his post Orlando press conference he claimed that the shooter was from Afghanistan but he is actually from Queens, which is where Trumps from. It makes him sound like he has no idea what he is talking about. Then claiming that everyone agrees with his Muslim ban despite most Democrats and Republicans lawmakers denouncing the plan. He also claims that he can get Mexico to pay for a wall but Mexicans will most likely be apart of the constructions :lol then claims that a judges from Indiana is a hater and out to get him because his parents are of Mexican descent.

Clinton just has to stick to her talking points and wait for Trump to shoot himself in the foot.



I'm really starting to wonder if Trump is actually trying to lose. It seems like anytime the GOP leaders are begrudgingly close to maybe standing behind him as the nominee, he shortly thereafter goes on another ridiculous tirade usually 10x's worse than the last one, then he plummets even further backwards. I can't recall any candidate in my lifetime being this openly ignorant/obnoxious. If a Romney were running again I think Hillary would probably lose, or just barely squeak by George Bush 2000 style. But since Trump is arguably the worst candidate to ever run she may win in a epic land slide.

[spurraider21]

I have a hard time believing that it will be closer than 60/40 Hillary, this could be a Waterloo for Republicans. Going forward; Hispanics may be permanently Democrat like Black people. A debate could be an absolute disaster; he cannot help himself. During his post Orlando press conference he claimed that the shooter was from Afghanistan but he is actually from Queens, which is where Trumps from. It makes him sound like he has no idea what he is talking about. Then claiming that everyone agrees with his Muslim ban despite most Democrats and Republicans lawmakers denouncing the plan. He also claims that he can get Mexico to pay for a wall but Mexicans will most likely be apart of the constructions :lol then claims that a judges from Indiana is a hater and out to get him because his parents are of Mexican descent.

Clinton just has to stick to her talking points and wait for Trump to shoot himself in the foot.
He never said the shooter was born there iirc. He said his parents were and "we allowed his family to come here"

[cd021]

He never said the shooter was born there iirc. He said his parents were and "we allowed his family to come here"

He did he said that the shooter was from Afghanistan and then said his parents were Afghanistan.

""The killer was born an Afghan, of Afghan parents who immigrated to the United States," Trump said of Mateen’s ethnic background"
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/13/11924134/donald-trump-orlando-shooter-afghan

Guy was supposed to be using a teleprompter and still found a way to screw up. His proposed ban would have not prevented the shooter from entering the country because the shooter was born in the same place that Trump was born and was American. Still not as embarrassing as claiming a Judge is biased because he is Mexican, even though he is from Indiana.

[Fabbs]

Will Berns voters do what Bern asks them to do?
If/when?

That would sink Tramp.
Otherwise, not so sure Shillary prevails.

[boutons_deux]

I'm not saying there are not structural issues with the economy that need to be addressed. I'm just saying that As compared to other first word economies, the US is performing better than most.

Roses smell better than shit. Social democratic countries are much more humane that John Galt's USA.

[CosmicCowboy]

Boo, you really should move out of your mothers trailer and move to Scandinavia if you think it's so great.

[spurraider21]

He did he said that the shooter was from Afghanistan and then said his parents were Afghanistan.

""The killer was born an Afghan, of Afghan parents who immigrated to the United States," Trump said of Mateen’s ethnic background"
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/13/11924134/donald-trump-orlando-shooter-afghan

Guy was supposed to be using a teleprompter and still found a way to screw up. His proposed ban would have not prevented the shooter from entering the country because the shooter was born in the same place that Trump was born and was American. Still not as embarrassing as claiming a Judge is biased because he is Mexican, even though he is from Indiana.
he specifically mentions that the parents immigrated to the US, and the rest of the speech makes it clear that trump was well aware the killer was born in the US. born "an afghan" is alluding to his ethnic background, not country of birth

trump says enough stupid shit, people dont need to manufacture his quotes to be stupid

[cd021]

I'm really starting to wonder if Trump is actually trying to lose. It seems like anytime the GOP leaders are begrudgingly close to maybe standing behind him as the nominee, he shortly thereafter goes on another ridiculous tirade usually 10x's worse than the last one, then he plummets even further backwards. I can't recall any candidate in my lifetime being this openly ignorant/obnoxious. If a Romney were running again I think Hillary would probably lose, or just barely squeak by George Bush 2000 style. But since Trump is arguably the worst candidate to ever run she may win in a epic land slide.

Romney is a better candidate because he does not embarrass their party with moronic and or blatantly racist statements. Trump won the republican nomination where 95% of the votes casts came from Caucasians. The general election is expected to have 30% of the voters be non-white, for the first time in history. Obama went 93%/71%/75% with Black, Hispanic and Asian voters Hilary could conceivably win 95%/90%/80% with Black, Hispanic and Asians this election with Bill Clinton, Obama, and possibly even Sanders stomping for her. There is also Trumps problem with women.

The Bushes, Romney and McCain all are opposed to Trump; that's two former presidents, a former governor of a swing state, and the past two Republican candidates. Paul Ryan just endorsed Trump then was forced to denounce Trumps comments by saying that "it was the definition of racism. It could get ugly in November and even uglier if Trump is still a fixture in the Party come in 2020

[ducks]

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/06/13/horowitz-donald-trumps-speech-game-changer/

[ducks]

Romney is a better candidate because he does not embarrass their party with moronic and or blatantly racist statements. Trump won the republican nomination where 95% of the votes casts came from Caucasians. The general election is expected to have 30% of the voters be non-white, for the first time in history. Obama went 93%/71%/75% with Black, Hispanic and Asian voters Hilary could conceivably win 95%/90%/80% with Black, Hispanic and Asians this election with Bill Clinton, Obama, and possibly even Sanders stomping for her. There is also Trumps problem with women.

The Bushes, Romney and McCain all are opposed to Trump; that's two former presidents, a former governor of a swing state, and the past two Republican candidates. Paul Ryan just endorsed Trump then was forced to denounce Trumps comments by saying that "it was the definition of racism. It could get ugly in November and even uglier if Trump is still a fixture in the Party come in 2020
Trump killed them in more votes
And Romney lost to the current guy he can not beat hillary

[ducks]

Trump