W.H.O. Fearmongering - Bird Flu

[Jelly]

For those of you who were lucky enough to survive the global outbreak of the West Nile Virus and Sars (phew..that was close, huh?), you can start freaking out over the Bird Flu. Yep, the consistently inaccurate, melodramatic fear-mongers known as the W.H.O. has put the word out that 150-200 million of us will be wiped out by this nasty little bug.

COMMENTARY
Was Hitchcock right?
Stories about bird-borne diseases are worrisome, but hold off on giving the kids' pet chicken the ax

Eileen Mitchell, Special to The Chronicle

Saturday, October 1, 2005


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Remember the "Summer of the Shark" a few years back? You couldn't read a newspaper or turn on the television without learning about yet another savage shark attack. Thanks to an overblown media frenzy, public perception of the shark became a real-life version of Steven Spielberg's "Jaws.''

Yet in reality, the number of deaths from sharks worldwide had declined from 11 in 2000 to seven in 2004..

Well, this season's "shark," weighing in at about 2.5 ounces, is covered with feathers. Hello, Tweety. Public perception is reverting to the mentality found in another movie, Alfred Hitchcock's "The Birds.''

Every day, headlines squawk about avian flu and mosquito-borne West Nile virus (first signaled through wild-bird deaths). But are birds really a threat?

"We're a country of fear," said avian expert Dr. Greg Harrison of Lake Worth, Fla. "Since the beginning of time we've had airborne illness. Birds are just the story of the day."

Harrison said that in the early 1900s, more than 100 people died from psittacosis, a disease carried by imported parrots and subsequently transmitted between humans. Parrots were banned from the United States for the next 60 years until a treatment was found. "That outbreak had the most virulent form of that bacterium," he said. "Even today in California, if a bird is found to have that disease, the pet store is immediately quarantined."

In a telephone interview, Harrison pointed out avian flu has been around for at least five years, "and worldwide, fewer than 100 people have died from it."

So why is avian influenza, an infectious bird disease caused by Type A strains of the influenza virus, warranting so much attention?

"Anything that we don't treat seriously can be a problem, but panic is not the answer," Harrison said. "In Asia, the bird flu is showing up primarily in people who have close contact with chickens. Either they have chickens living around their homes or they're running filthy facilities where chickens are not healthy and therefore more susceptible to the virus."

Dr. Tim Uyeki, a medical epidemiologist with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, says that fears of a potential influenza pandemic (an international outbreak of disease when a new influenza Type A virus is introduced in humans) are not unfounded. (See Chronicle staff writer Sabin Russell's article, "U.S. preparing for bird flu to arrive from eastern Asia,'' in Wednesday's Bay Area section, or find it at sfgate.com.)

"First is its unprecedented wide-scale geographic spread among domestic poultry in Asia, which cannot be eradicated anytime soon," he said. "More recently is its spread in wild birds and to more countries. H5N1 viruses cause high mortality in chickens, but ducks can be infected without signs of disease. These viruses have demonstrated the ability to go directly from poultry to people, causing severe disease and death."

Uyeki pointed out that in the United States and other industrialized countries most poultry production occurs on large commercial farms and outbreaks of avian influenza can be better contained than in Asia, where the problem is widespread. In some Asian countries, up to 75 percent of poultry production occurs in small noncommercial backyard flocks, particularly in rural areas, he said.

Although clusters of H5N1 human cases in families have occurred, he acknowledged there have only been a few clear instances of probable, limited human-to-human transmission. And the virus did not survive beyond the second generation of cases.

Herein lies the concern: Influenza viruses are continually evolving. Animal and human influenza A viruses have the ability to exchange genetic material in a process called genetic reassortment. This means, in the future, an H5N1 virus strain could acquire the ability to spread much more easily among people. And since the human population has not been previously exposed to this virus, most people will not have built immunity and will be susceptible to infection.

A dire prediction, yes. But the risk of an avian flu pandemic remains low at this time due to the current genetic makeup of H5N1, although this could change. In case it does, the government has agreed to stockpile $100 million worth of H5N1 inoculations, but Uyeki said the likelihood of an avian flu epidemic breaking out in the United States remains hard to gauge.

"There is no H5N1 in wild birds and domestic poultry in this country," he said. "At this time, there's no risk of a human acquiring H5N1 from a pet bird."

So, what about other diseases making news this year, such as West Nile virus?

First appearing in the United States in 1999, West Nile virus is a danger to people because it can develop into a potentially serious case of encephalitis (inflammation of the brain) with neurological repercussions. Humans are exposed when they are bitten by an infected mosquito that has fed on an infected bird.

There we go with the birds again.

But before you begin eyeballing your bird as a harbinger of death, take note: While birds may be the reservoir for the virus, mosquitoes are the problem to humans. There is no known documented evidence of someone catching the virus from handling a live or dead infected bird (although you should always avoid direct skin contact with sick or dead birds and other animals).

"In nature, there are always particular hosts that a virus can grow well in. Birds just happen to be the ideal host for West Nile virus," said Dr. Lyle R. Petersen, the deputy director for science, Division of the Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Fort Collins, Colo. "From our perspective, it's not the bird that's our greatest worry; it's the mosquito."

But 70 to 80 percent of people who get infected with West Nile virus don't even show any symptoms. Between 20 and 30 percent of the people who become infected will experience what is referred to as West Nile fever. Petersen knows firsthand about this because he fell ill when a mosquito lunched on him. "I had headache, nausea, muscle pain, skin rash, vomiting and fever. It was pretty awful. People are often sick with West Nile fever for a few weeks."

Less than 1 percent of exposed people will get severely ill. But for this small segment, West Nile virus is serious business.

"People who develop encephalitis experience prolonged hospitalization and may be permanently paralyzed," Petersen said. "About 15 percent of the 1 percent who get severe illness actually die, and the remaining 85 percent may be left with permanent disabilities such as paralysis, trouble thinking, and problems with balance and walking."

Although all ages are at risk, West Nile virus appears to be more common among older people. It's not yet known what other factors cause only some to be susceptible. Genes may be a determining factor. When it's pointed out 1 percent is a relatively low number to trigger the panic button, Petersen said, "More than a million people in the United States have been infected with the virus so far, so 1 percent of a million is still a pretty big number." He said that the overall risk of getting severely ill is fairly slim, "but you still want to protect yourself with mosquito repellent." He encourages people to visit the Fight the Bite Web site at www.fightthebitecolorado.com.

If you really want to lose sleep, :lol consider other problems courtesy of Mother Nature. "There are so many other things to worry about," Petersen said. "Fifty percent of children by age of 12 will be bitten by the family dog. There's zoonotic diseases (transmitted from animals to humans), like cat-scratch fever, ringworm (cats) and leptospirosis (dogs)."

Not to mention other zoonotic diseases such as plague (rodents, cats, rabbits, squirrels), tuberculosis and mad cow disease (cattle), hantavirus (rodents), rabies (mammals) and salmonella (cows, pigs, wild animals, poultry) to name a few. And what about those wild bird droppings (think pigeons), which can carry cryptococcus? People are exposed when they inadvertently walk through, stir up and inhale infected dust from dried bird droppings.

Maybe we just shouldn't leave the house.

"There are aggressive, high-tech solutions that address disease and parasite control in all animals," Dr. Marty Becker, the veterinary contributor to ABC-TV's "Good Morning America," said. "But low-tech solutions are sheer common sense: Never let children play in unclean areas where any animal defecates; and remember what grandma told you: Always wash your hands before you eat."

But if you still insist on stressing out, do so with a little buttered popcorn while watching "The Birds.'' And stay out of the water

[mookie2001]

now its not shit

if it ever evolves to the point where it doesnt need animals to spread it.
god help us all, this shit could kill a 100 million with the international travel we have today

[mookie2001]

if you want to point out fearmongering look at the governments
be ready campaign

[Jelly]

if you want to point out fearmongering look at the governments
be ready campaign

if it's about politics, terrorism, iraq etc. I'm not interested. At least not in this thread, that's why I created this in The Club.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

It is every family's duty to be prepared for terror. In California they prepare for Earthquakes, in the gulf, for hurricanes. Every American....should be prepared...for terror.

(whats funny is that they said that in an actual commercial)

Whatever happened to SARS??????

[Nbadan]

Fear mongering? Well, yes and no. There is no current vaccine against the bird flu and there won't be one for many years. There is only one drug that is effective at treating those who have already been infected with Avian flu, but it's not easy to find in the U.S. and if the infected person is old or weak, even this treatment can be self-defeating. Congress recently signed a bill to fund the purchase of enough of this drug to treat a regional out-break in the U.S., but that medicine won't be available for many years.

The reason dire predictions about other modern plagues like West Nile Virus haven't come to fruitation is largely because the CDC does a spectacular job isolating those that have been or may have been exposed to the disease, so the disease hasn't had a chance to develop and mutate. This could very well happen with Avian flu too, but with the disease already showing signs of mutating to human to human exposure in Asia, why take the chance?

[Nbadan]

Crap. Reports are surfacing out of Hong Kong that a variant of the flu there is resistant to the only antiviral drug to work against Avian flu...


Experts in Hong Kong said on Friday that the human H5N1 strain which surfaced in northern Vietnam this year had proved to be resistant to Tamiflu, a powerful antiviral drug which goes by the generic name, oseltamivir.


CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/09/30/birdflu.drugs.reut/index.html)

[Vashner]

Hum I don't know i'll take my chances with a dose pack of tamiflu.

[Jelly]

The reason dire predictions about other modern plagues like West Nile Virus haven't come to fruitation is largely because the CDC does a spectacular job isolating those that have been or may have been exposed to the disease

:wow
Complimenting a government agency?

Who are you and what have you done with Dan?!

[Vashner]

Yea someone hacked his account or something.. CDC is "Bush Administration"..
The term they like to throw around for any govt employee / agency that fooks up.

[Jelly]

actually Dan didn't bring up the B word in this thread (and he even made a positive comment) and I'm very grateful for that.
Now, as for you Vashner :nope

[CosmicCowboy]

Virus's mutate and change...thats just what they do...If this one mutates where it can spread human to human it will be pretty damn nasty. It kills 50% of the people that get it...their lungs basically fill up with blood...If it gets to the US in that form I can see it having economy destroying implications...schools and business closing...people afraid to go out in public...

[CharlieMac]

Duct tape. that's all we need.

[SWC Bonfire]

AI is a serious problem for the poultry industry, with outbreaks often requiring a mandatory 5-mile kill radius for all fowl, regardless of infection status, and quarantine for infected areas. That is a big $$$ problem.

[Vashner]

If you get the regular flu this year and get the pill pack for tamiflu...

Now I am not saying that "I" would keep the pills saved (they last about 3 years) and chug some other off the shelf medication... but I have thought about it.

But if flu breaks out here in US there will be shortage of tamiflu big time.. you think a water run was bad.. this is gonna be 10x worse.

[TheTruth]

For those of you who were lucky enough to survive the global outbreak of the West Nile Virus and Sars (phew..that was close, huh?), you can start freaking out over the Bird Flu. Yep, the consistently inaccurate, melodramatic fear-mongers known as the W.H.O. has put the word out that 150-200 million of us will be wiped out by this nasty little bug.
Maybe SARS didn't affect us here in America, but my family in Asia sure felt its impact.

[boutons]

Jelly, looks like your boy dubya needs to appear to have gotten some of that "fear" mongered into him.

sonofabitch, just when dubya thought he could glide home, "working so hard", to 2008 taking care of only the top 2%, the hurricanes made him realize that he's president of 100% of the USA.

===============================

The New York Times
October 4, 2005

Bush Weighs Strategies to Counter Possible Outbreak of Bird Flu

By BRIAN KNOWLTON,
International Herald Tribune

WASHINGTON, Oct. 4 - President Bush said today that he was working to prepare the United States for a possibly deadly outbreak of avian flu. He said he had weighed whether to quarantine parts of the country and also whether to employ the military for the difficult task of enforcing such a quarantine.

"I am concerned about what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the world," he said at a White House news conference.

The president emphasized that he was not predicting such an outbreak. "I'm just suggesting to you that we better be thinking about it," he told reporters, "and we are. And we're more than thinking about it, we're trying to put plans in place."

Since 2003, the avian flu has killed about 65 people in Southeast Asia who had been in contact with infected fowl. So far the virus has not mutated into a strain capable of transmission from one human to another.

If it does, scientists say that it could kill millions of people worldwide, reminiscent of the 1918-19 Spanish-flu pandemic, which claimed more lives than World War I. Because the virus is new, humans have little or no defense against it. It kills about half of those infected, and an outbreak could spread around the world in days.

Up to now, bird flu has not received extensive public attention in the United States. But Mr. Bush, in devoting a long and detailed reply to the subject, appeared intent on raising public awareness and promoting readiness, as well as demonstrating his own.

He referred to the "H5N1 virus," said he had read a book by John M. Barry on the 1918 pandemic, and had been briefed by Dr. Anthony Fauci, who heads the infectious disease unit at the National Institutes of Health.

An outbreak would pose difficult policy decisions for a president, Mr. Bush said, including the question of imposing a regional quarantine.

"It's one thing to shut down your airplanes, it's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu," he said. Doing so, Mr. Bush said, might even involve using "a military that's able to plan and move."

The president had already raised, in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the delicate question of giving the military a larger role in responding to domestic disasters. His comment today appeared to presage a concerted push to change laws that limit military activities in domestic affairs.

Mr. Bush said he knew that some governors, all of them commanders of their states' National Guards, resented being told by Washington how to use their Guard forces.

"But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the president to move beyond that debate," Mr. Bush said. One such circumstance, he suggested, would be an avian flu outbreak. He said a president needed every available tool "to be able to deal with something this significant."

While in New York last month to address the United Nations General Assembly, President Bush proposed an "international partnership" to combat the disease.

He said today that he had spoken "privately to as many leaders as I could find" at the United Nations about raising public awareness and ensuring maximum efforts to quickly report any instances of the disease to the World Health Organization.

The W.H.O. and the European Union have been urging countries for months to prepare for a possible pandemic.

The president said he had spoken to Dr. Fauci about development of a vaccine, but added that "we're just not that far down the manufacturing process." He said he wanted to encourage potential vaccine manufacturers to be poised to react urgently.

The United States last month ordered $100 million worth of a promising vaccine from the French drug maker Sanofi-Aventis.

When the secretary of health and human services, Tommy Thompson, resigned in December, he was asked what health threat worried him most. He cited the avian flu.

"This is a really huge bomb," he said, "that could adversely impact on the health care of the world," killing tens of millions.

* Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company

[JoeChalupa]

I never get a flu shot. They just offered it here at work for $26 but of course I said no.


I also heard that the polio virus has been found in a newborn baby but I can't remember in which state. That is pretty frightening don't you think?

[Jelly]

Jelly, looks like your boy dubya needs to appear to have gotten some of that "fear" mongered into him.

sonofabitch, just when dubya thought he could glide home, "working so hard", to 2008 taking care of only the top 2%, the hurricanes made him realize that he's president of 100% of the USA.

Just for the record, Dubya is not "my boy". Just because I do not burn him in effigy every night or stick pins in Bush voodoo dolls like some of you probably do, doesn't make me a Bush supporter.

[boutons]

Even more fear-mongering! When will it all end?

===========================


BBC NEWS

1918 killer flu 'came from birds'

The Spanish flu virus that killed 50 million people in 1918-19 was probably a strain that originated in birds, research has shown.

US scientists have found the 1918 virus shares genetic mutations with the bird flu virus now circulating in Asia.

Writing in Nature, they say their work underlines the threat the current strain poses to humans worldwide.

A second paper in Science reveals another US team has successfully recreated the 1918 virus in mice.

We are revealing some of the secrets that will help us predict and prepare for the next pandemic
Karen Gerberding

The virus is contained at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention under stringent safety conditions.

It is hoped to carry out experiments to further understand the biological properties that made the virus so virulent.

The virus was recreated from data produced by painstaking research by a team from the US Armed Forces Institute of Pathology.

Lung tissue samples

Working on virus samples from the remains of victims of the 1918 pandemic, the researchers were able to piece together the entire genetic sequence of the virus.

They found the virus contained elements that were new to humans of the time - making it highly virulent.

And analysis of the final three pieces of the virus' genetic code has revealed mutations that have striking similarities to those found in flu viruses found only in birds, such as the H5N1 strain currently found in south east Asia.

This strain has so far killed at least 65 people.

Many experts believe it is only a matter of time before H5N1, or a similar strain, causes many deaths in humans - possibly after combining with a human flu strain.

Crucially, the mutations identified by the US researchers were found in genes which control the virus' ability to replicate in host cells.

The researchers say these mutations may have helped the 1918 virus replicate more efficiently.

At this stage, they say the H5N1 strain shares only some, and not all, of these mutations.

Increased virulence

But these mutations may be enough to increase the virus' virulence - and give it the potential to cause serious human infection without first combining with a known human flu strain.

The researchers believe the two other major flu pandemics of the 20th century - in 1957 and 1968 - were caused by human flu viruses which acquired two or three key genes from bird flu virus strains.

But they believe the 1918 strain was probably entirely a bird flu virus that adapted to function in humans.

Karen Gerberding, director of the US Centers for Disease Control, said: "By unmasking the 1918 virus we are revealing some of the secrets that will help us predict and prepare for the next pandemic."

And Dr Jeffery Taubenberger, lead researcher of the Nature study, said: "Determining whether pandemic influenza virus strains can emerge via different pathways will affect the scope and focus of surveillance and prevention efforts."

Warning

Professor John Oxford, an expert in virology at Queen Mary College, London, said the suggestion that the virus had the potential to jump between humans without first combining with a human virus made it even more of a threat.

"This study gives us an extra warning that H5N1 needs to be taken even more seriously than it has been up to now," he said.

Dr Terrence Tumpey, of the US CDC, defended the decision to recreate the 1918 flu virus.

He said: "We felt we had to recreate the virus and run these experiments to understand the biological properties that made the 1918 virus so exceptionally deadly.

"We wanted to identify the specific genes responsible for its virulence, with the hope of designing antivirals or other interventions that would work against virulent pandemic or epidemic influenza viruses."

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/health/4308872.stm

Published: 2005/10/05 17:00:59 GMT

© BBC MMV

[CosmicCowboy]

http://www.shawnobrien.com/rabbit_chicken.jpg

how these mutations start...

[boutons]

Yet more fear-mongering! Make it stop! Say it ain't so!

The UN/WHO has conquered Wash DC!

==========================

The New York Times
October 5, 2005

Fear of Flu Outbreak Rattles Washington
By GARDINER HARRIS

WASHINGTON, Oct. 4 - Health officials have warned for years that a virulent bird flu could kill millions of people, but few in Washington have seemed alarmed. After a closed-door briefing last week, however, fear of an outbreak swept official Washington, which was still reeling from the poor response to Hurricane Katrina.

The day after the briefing, led by Michael O. Leavitt, the secretary of Health and Human Services, and other senior government health officials, the Senate squeezed $3.9 billion for flu preparations into a Pentagon appropriations bill.

On Wednesday, Senate Democrats plan to introduce another bill calling for the creation of a flu pandemic coordinator within the White House and a federal buy-back program for unused flu vaccines, among other measures, according to a draft of the bill. Its authors include the Senate minority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada; Senator Barack Obama of Illinois; and Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts.

Thirty-two Democratic senators sent a letter to President Bush on Tuesday expressing "grave concern that the nation is dangerously unprepared for the serious threat of avian influenza."

Mr. Bush spent a considerable part of his news conference Tuesday talking about the risks of an outbreak and the measures the administration is considering to combat one, including whether to use the military to enforce quarantines.

"I take this issue very seriously," he said. "The people of the country ought to rest assured that we're doing everything we can."

But after the administration's widely criticized response to Hurricane Katrina, such assurances are no longer enough, several Democratic senators said.

" 'Trust us' is not something the administration can say after Katrina," Senator Tom Harkin, Democrat of Iowa, said in an interview. "I don't think Congress is in a mood to trust. We want plans. We want specific goals and procedures we're going to take to prepare for this."

So far, Mr. Harkin said, the administration has provided neither, despite requests from Congress.

Mr. Leavitt acknowledged in an interview that the United States was not prepared for a pandemic flu outbreak. He plans to spend next week touring Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia, the countries most likely to be the source of an avian flu outbreak, and talking with health ministers there about a coordinated surveillance of outbreaks.

"No one in the world is ready for it," Mr. Leavitt said. "But we're more ready today than we were yesterday. And we'll be more prepared tomorrow than we are today."

Since 1997, avian flu strains seem to have infected thousands of birds in 11 countries. But so far, nearly all of the people infected with the disease - more than 100, including some 60 who died - got the sickness directly from birds. There has been very little transmission between people, a requirement for an epidemic.

An outbreak, therefore, may be years away, or may never occur. And if a strain does jump to people, such a mutation may make it far less lethal than it has been to those who have contracted it from birds.

Mr. Leavitt warned in the briefing last week that an outbreak could cause 100,000 to 2 million deaths and as many as 10 million hospitalizations in the United States, one person who was present said. Those numbers have been presented publicly many times before. But hearing them in closed session gave them urgency, some who were at the meeting said.

The briefing "scared the hell out of me," Senator Reid said recently.

The Senate majority leader, Bill Frist of Tennessee, said he had been delivering speeches about improving the nation's preparedness for a flu pandemic since December. But as more birds have been discovered with the virus, concerns have grown.

The poor response to Hurricane Katrina is also a factor, Mr. Frist said. "People watching on TV see that the government wasn't there in times of need," he said.

Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University, called the sudden interest in preparing for a flu epidemic the latest "post-Katrina effect."

"I don't think politically or perceptually the government feels that it could tolerate another tragically inadequate response to a major disaster," Dr. Redlener said. He said a flu epidemic was the "next big catastrophe that we can reasonably expect, and the country is phenomenally not prepared for this."

Mr. Leavitt said several steps must be taken to prevent a flu pandemic. First, he said, there must be an effective global surveillance program for the disease, something he will discuss in his trip to Asia next week.

Second, the United States must construct its own comprehensive disease surveillance system, he said. And third, antiviral drugs like Tamiflu, made by Roche Laboratories, and Relenza, made by GlaxoSmithKline, must be made available.

The government has purchased "millions of courses" of treatment, said Christina Pearson, a spokeswoman for the Health and Human Services Department, and it has a goal of having on hand 20 million. A course includes enough doses for a full treatment.

Finally, the government is underwriting research that it hopes will speed the creation of vaccines against the disease, Mr. Leavitt said. Flu vaccines take nearly nine months to be manufactured.

Democrats say the Bush administration has failed to spend the money needed to prepare for a flu pandemic. Though Mr. Leavitt said that preparations by state and local health officials were vital to flu planning, Mr. Harkin said that the administration had proposed cutting the financing needed for such planning.

And the Democrats said in their letter to President Bush that it was past time for the administration to finish its flu plan, which has been under review for a year.

Mr. Leavitt responded: "We need a plan. I'm resolved to make sure we have one and so is the president."

* Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company

[T Park]

another bash bush thread.


When will it end?

[Dre_7]

Whatever happened to SARS??????

Im not sure, but I think he ended up with the Kings.

[boutons]

The New York Times
October 7, 2005

After Delay, U.S. Faces Line for Flu Drug
By GARDINER HARRIS

As concern about a flu pandemic sweeps official Washington, Congress and the Bush administration are considering spending billions to buy the influenza drug Tamiflu. But after months of delay, the United States will now have to wait in line to get the pills.

Had the administration placed a large order just a few months ago, Roche, Tamiflu's maker, could have delivered much of the supply by next year, according to sources close to the negotiations in both government and industry.

As the months passed, however, other countries placed orders that largely exhausted Roche's production capacity this year and next.

Democrats on Capitol Hill are complaining that the delay has put Americans in jeopardy. "The administration has just drug its feet through this whole process," said Senator Tom Harkin, Democrat of Iowa, who has pressed for legislation to buy more courses of Tamiflu. A course includes enough pills for a full treatment.

Senator Barack Obama, Democrat of Illinois, said in an interview that Michael O. Leavitt, the secretary of health and human services, told senators in a closed-door briefing last week that the administration would soon place an order to raise the government's Tamiflu stockpile to 81 million courses - up from 12 million to 13 million courses expected by the end of 2006. Mr. Obama has long been urging the government to buy more Tamiflu.

"Secretary Leavitt admitted that they are currently in negotiations with Roche to try to rapidly build up those stockpiles," Mr. Obama said. "But we're behind countries like Great Britain, France and Japan, and it's probably going to cost us a lot more money than it would have to catch up."

In an interview on Tuesday, Mr. Leavitt said that the government would buy more Tamiflu although he did not specify how much.

"But it's not a surrogate for preparation," he said. "It's like saying that if we could get everyone in America to wear seat belts, we would solve auto accidents. It's part of a comprehensive solution."

Christina Pearson, a spokeswoman for Mr. Leavitt, said she could not confirm whether the Bush administration had a new goal of buying the 81 million courses.

Mr. Leavitt said the Bush administration planned to prepare for a possible influenza pandemic by strengthening both international and domestic disease surveillance programs, buying drugs like Tamiflu and investing in research to develop alternative methods of making flu vaccines.

Preparing the vaccines usually takes nine months and involves the eggs of thousands of chickens. Because chickens themselves could be wiped out in a pandemic, the present system of manufacturing vaccines is highly vulnerable.

Introduced in 1999, Tamiflu for years had disappointing sales and received little attention. But just as Bayer's antibiotic Cipro became wildly popular in the wake of the 2001 anthrax attacks, Tamiflu has become the drug of choice for those worried about pandemic flu because it is one of the only medicines proven to reduce the duration and severity of the potentially deadly disease if taken within 48 hours of infection.

Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University, is among those who have been insisting for months that the government buy more Tamiflu. But he said the Bush administration largely ignored his and others' warnings.

"And now that they're finally worked up about it, the store is closed," Dr. Redlener said, referring to Roche's supply problems. "The U.S. is now in line behind much of the rest of the world."

Terence Hurley, a Roche spokesman, said that 40 countries had ordered Tamiflu to fill medical stockpiles in case of a pandemic. Many countries in Europe - including France, Britain, Finland, Norway and Switzerland - have ordered enough to treat 20 percent to 40 percent of their populations. The American stockpile would treat less than 2 percent of the population.

Mr. Hurley said that Roche would be able to deliver all the courses that the United States government has currently ordered, including at least two million courses ordered this year.

Asked how soon the company could produce 68 million more courses if the United States placed such an order, Mr. Hurley refused to say. "We're just going to have to see what their demands are," Mr. Hurley said. The suggested 81 million courses would cover more than a quarter of the population.

The government and industry officials, however, said that Roche had committed to delivering seven million courses to the United States next year and would not be able to deliver substantially more until 2007.

Since 1997, avian flu strains have killed millions of birds in nearly a dozen countries. But so far, nearly all of the people infected - more than 100 so far, including some 60 who died - got the sickness directly from birds. Until the virus passes easily among humans, it is unlikely to cause a pandemic that could kill millions.

An outbreak, therefore, may still be years away or may never occur. But news this week that the 1918 flu virus, which killed at least 50 million worldwide, was also a form of avian flu raised concerns further.

On Thursday, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, and Senator Pat Roberts, Republican of Kansas, introduced a bill that would bolster defenses against the flu.

* Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company

==========================================

T_Park, you liar and quitter, this thread was started as "ridicule the UN thread".

[ObiwanGinobili]

I never get a flu shot. They just offered it here at work for $26 but of course I said no.


I also heard that the polio virus has been found in a newborn baby but I can't remember in which state. That is pretty frightening don't you think?


The 1 year i got the flu shot is also the one year I got a severe flu. My years without a flu shot were hit & miss.. some times I got it .. sometimes not.. and it was never that bad, juts a few days.

Meanwhile last year when I had Isabella I knew a woman in Iowa who had a boy 2 days after me (we were in the same club). he ended up dying of whopping cough at 20 days old. Its a vaccine he wasn't due yet.

[mookie2001]

unless you are old and weak, a sickly baby or toddler

you would have to be an absolute fool to get a flu shot

[orhe]

the really bad thing that i've been reading is then the damn flu mutates...

if it suddenly became a human-human virus etc

[boutons]

While the usual flu outbreaks usually hit the weakest worst, while the stronger make it through. The whole point of this particuler bird flu is that the strongest won't be so lucky, but many will be dead. The 60 dead out of 100 infected weren't just the oldest and youngest. Luckily, the rich will survive. Money always will protect them.

Anyway, everybody relax. Dubya's people have a plan, "years in the making". And we all know how well dubya's plans are conceived and executed. It's cool. Dubya will be seen to be one of the greatest presidents in world history, like T_Park is one of the most faithful, man-of-his-word Spurs fan alive.

=================================

The New York Times
October 8, 2005

Bush Plan Shows U.S. Is Not Ready for Deadly Flu
By GARDINER HARRIS

WASHINGTON, Oct. 7 - A plan developed by the Bush administration to deal with any possible outbreak of pandemic flu shows that the United States is woefully unprepared for what could become the worst disaster in the nation's history.

A draft of the final plan, which has been years in the making and is expected to be released later this month, says a large outbreak that began in Asia would be likely, because of modern travel patterns, to reach the United States within "a few months or even weeks."

If such an outbreak occurred, hospitals would become overwhelmed, riots would engulf vaccination clinics, and even power and food would be in short supply, according to the plan, which was obtained by The New York Times.

The 381-page plan calls for quarantine and travel restrictions but concedes that such measures "are unlikely to delay introduction of pandemic disease into the U.S. by more than a month or two."

The plan's 10 supplements suggest specific ways that local and state governments should prepare now for an eventual pandemic by, for instance, drafting legal documents that would justify quarantines. Written by health officials, the plan does yet address responses by the military or other governmental departments.

The plan outlines a worst-case scenario in which more than 1.9 million Americans would die and 8.5 million would be hospitalized with costs exceeding $450 billion.

It also calls for a domestic vaccine production capacity of 600 million doses within six months, more than 10 times the present capacity.

On Friday, President Bush invited the leaders of the nation's top six vaccine producers to the White House to cajole them into increasing their domestic vaccine capacity, and the flu plan demonstrates just how monumental a task these companies have before them.

In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Bush administration's efforts to plan for a possible pandemic flu have become controversial, with many Democrats in Congress charging that the administration has not done enough. Many have pointed to the lengthy writing process of the flu plan as evidence of this.

But while the administration's flu plan, officially called the Pandemic Influenza Strategic Plan, closely outlines how the Health and Human Services Department may react during a pandemic, it skirts many essential decisions, like how the military may be deployed.

"The real shortcoming of the plan is that it doesn't say who's in charge," said a top health official who provided the plan to The Times. "We don't want to have a FEMA-like response, where it's not clear who's running what."

Still, the official, who asked for anonymity because the plan was not supposed to be distributed, called the plan a "major milestone" that was "very comprehensive" and sorely needed.

The draft provided to The Times is dated Sept. 30, and is stamped "for internal H.H.S. use only." The plan asks government officials to clear it by Oct. 6.

Christina Pearson, a spokeswoman for Health and Human Services Secretary Michael O. Leavitt, responded, "We recognize that the H.H.S. plan will be a foundation for a governmentwide plan, and that process has already begun."

Ms. Pearson said that Mr. Leavitt has already had one-on-one meetings with other cabinet secretaries to begin the coordination process across the federal government. But she emphasized that the plan given to The Times was a draft and had not been finalized.

Mr. Leavitt is leaving Saturday for a 10-day trip to at least four Asian nations, where he will meet with health and agriculture officials to discuss planning for a pandemic flu. He said at a briefing on Friday that the administration's flu plan would be officially released soon. He was not aware at the briefing that The Times had a copy of the plan. And he emphasized that the chances that the virus now killing birds in Asia would become a human pandemic were unknown but probably low. A pandemic is global epidemic of disease.

"It may be a while longer, but pandemic will likely occur in the future," he said.

And he said that flu planning would soon become a national exercise.

"It will require school districts to have a plan on how they will deal with school opening and closing," he said. "It will require the mayor to have a plan on whether or not they're going to ask the theaters not to have a movie."

"Over the next couple of months you will see a great deal of activity asking metropolitan areas, 'Are you ready?' If not, here is what must be done," he said.

A key point of contention if an epidemic strikes is who will get vaccines first. The administration's plan suggests a triage distribution for these essential medicines. Groups like the military, National Guard and other national security groups were left out.

Beyond the military, however, the first in line for essential medicines are workers in plants making the vaccines and drugs as well as medical personnel working directly with those sickened by the disease. Next are the elderly and severely ill. Then come pregnant women, transplant and AIDS patients, and parents of infants. Finally, the police, firefighters and government leaders are next.

The plan also calls for a national stockpile of 133 million courses of antiviral treatment. The administration has bought 4.3 million.

The plan details the responsibilities of top health officials in each phase of a spreading pandemic, starting with planning and surveillance efforts and ending with coordination with the Department of Defense.

Much of the plan is a dry recitation of the science and basic bureaucratic steps that must be followed as a virus races around the globe. But the plan has the feel of a television movie-of-the-week when it describes a possible pandemic situation that begins, "In April of the current year, an outbreak of severe respiratory illness is identified in a small village."

"Twenty patients have required hospitalization at the local provincial hospital, five of whom have died from pneumonia and respiratory failure," the plan states.

The flu spreads and begins to make headlines around the world. Top health officials swing into action and isolate the new viral strain in laboratories. The scientists discover that "the vaccine developed previously for the avian strain will only provide partial protection," the plan states.

In June, federal health officials find airline passengers infected with the virus "arriving in four major U.S. cities," the plan states. By July, small outbreaks are being reported around the nation. It spreads.

As the outbreak peaks, about a quarter of workers stay home because they are sick or afraid of becoming sick. Hospitals are overwhelmed.

"Social unrest occurs," the plan states. "Public anxiety heightens mistrust of government, diminishing compliance with public health advisories." Mortuaries and funeral homes are overwhelmed.

Presently, an avian virus has decimated chicken and other bird flocks in 11 countries. It has infected more than 100 people, about 60 of whom have died, but nearly all of these victims got the disease directly from birds. An epidemic is only possible when a virus begins to pass easily among humans.

Lawrence K. Altman contributed reporting for this article.


* Copyright 2005 The New York Times Company

[Jelly]

Boutons, seriously. Quit jerking off to George Bush in every damn thread. You're coming across as a real freak. This thread is NOT about Bush.

[exstatic]

unless you are old and weak, a sickly baby or toddler

you would have to be an absolute fool to get a flu shot

The scary thing about the bird flu mutations is that they don't primarily kill the young and old. The largest group of fatalities in 1918-1919 was younger adults.

[boutons]

jelly butt, SERIOUSLY, the IGNORE function is fantatsic.

I can't hustle my own bird flu shots, neither can my doc, nor the city of SA, nor state of TX. It's a fucking federal responsibility, or does the right-wing reading of the Constitution prevent the feds from securing the health of the nation?

Bird flu sure looks like a FEMA/KATRINA all over again. The Repubs just are NOT serious about governing, esp when the governance concerns ANYTHING but enriching the rich and corps or enfeebling governmental functions.

dubya thinks we're supposed to face a pandemic with cheapo faith-based tactics? Drink lots of orange juice, light candles, take your vitamins, get lots of sleep.

http://www.creators.com/1002/CB/CB1007g.gif