Probability of 6

[da_suns_fan]

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xW5MJdDISpY/UgEucdvaboI/AAAAAAAAAHo/rDhklSPqV5c/s1600/Game+6+Math.jpg

Discuss.

[140]

And yet that's still higher than the probability of the suns winning a championship anytime soon :lmao

[whitemamba]

6

[Thread]

You have to put Amy in the prism somewhere. Maybe cast her down with the sodomites with her husband.

[whitemamba]

You have to put Amy in the prism somewhere. Maybe cast her down with the sodomites with her husband.

http://www.myk104.com/dede/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2013/06/kilopkg.jpg
https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.Mbd2eb7772db83da50a33f15266102c08H0&pid=15.1&P=0&w=300&h=300
a

[Chris]

pity post

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Those statistics are garbage because they don't account for about a hundred confounding variables that all increase that final probability number significantly.

[resistanze]

OP's troll attempts are painful tbh

[siraulo23]

OP's troll attempts are painful tbh

[Thread]

Those statistics are garbage because they don't account for about a hundred confounding variables that all increase that final probability number significantly.


I'll just bet they are.

[Budkin]

And yet that's still higher than the probability of the suns winning a championship anytime soon :lmao

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I'll just bet they are.

So... why are you a bandwagon Lakers fan considering you've lived in AZ your whole life?

[Thread]

So... why are you a bandwagon Lakers fan considering you've lived in AZ your whole life?

I never defend my fandom.

It's my religion.

[midnightpulp]

Rent free.

[UZER]

Meh...gave one away and still have 5 more than PHX.

[Stan]

I never defend my fandom.

It's my religion.
You also couldn't defend America's honor against the gooks.

[Arcadian]

Discuss.

Randomness is a thing. /discussion

[Splits]

You also couldn't defend America's honor against the gooks.


:lmao truthbomb

[DMC]

So... why are you a bandwagon Lakers fan considering you've lived in AZ your whole life?
Not true. He lived in Cleveland first. He's a Cleveland, Phoenix, LA fan dwelling on a Spurs forum. He's an enigma. Dale

[da_suns_fan]

Randomness is a thing. /discussion

Choking isnt random. The pressure causes great anxiety which causes people to not perform as they usually would. Hence the Kawhi meltdown and the coach pulling Tim Duncan on two defensive series that led to offensive rebounds.

[Arcadian]

Choking isnt random. The pressure causes great anxiety which causes people to not perform as they usually would. Hence the Kawhi meltdown and the coach pulling Tim Duncan on two defensive series that led to offensive rebounds.

Right, I was referring to random bounces of the ball off the rim, unpredictable trajectories the ball takes in any given situation, the firing of a referee's neurons that cause him or prevent him from making a certain call, etc. Randomness plays a huge role in the outcome of all sports, at least more than what many people would think.

[Thread]

Not true. He lived in Cleveland first. He's a Cleveland, Phoenix, LA fan dwelling on a Spurs forum. He's an enigma. Dale

I never defend my fandom.

It's my religion.

[Mikeanaro]

And yet that's still higher than the probability of the suns winning a championship anytime soon :lmao

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I never defend my fandom.

It's my religion.

Lobster, coaxed out of the lobster hole.


Job well done, Millennial Messiah :toast

[Clipper Nation]

I never defend my fandom.

It's my religion.
I wouldn't defend my fandom either if I rushed the court for another team's championship.

tee, hee.

[Kawhitstorm]

Probability of da_suns_fan having duplicate chromosomes: 100%

[Kawhitstorm]

And yet that's still higher than the probability of the suns winning a championship anytime soon :lmao

He's too busy miscalculating odds to care about it.:lol

[Thread]

Lobster, coaxed out of the lobster hole.


Job well done, Millennial Messiah :toast

They were selling your shit.

[Thread]

I wouldn't defend my fandom either if I rushed the court for another team's championship.

tee, hee.

They were selling your shit.

[SpursforSix]

They were selling your shit.

the next time they sell your shit, you'll have dig through six feet of dirt to get wifi

[Raven]

op clearly doesn't get statistics

[Thread]

the next time they sell your shit, you'll have dig through six feet of dirt to get wifi

They were selling your shit.

[SpursforSix]

They were selling your shit.

and in 2014...let's not forget 2014

[DMC]

What's the probability of this?





2010–11 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%9311_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
10th
Pacific
2nd
40
42
.488
17




2011–12 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%9312_Phoenix_Suns_season) [c] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Phoenix_Suns_seasons#endnote_Lock2c)
NBA
Western
10th
Pacific
3rd
33
33
.500
17




2012–13 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%9313_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
15th
Pacific
5th
25
57
.305
32




2013–14 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
9th
Pacific
3rd
48
34
.585
9

Goran Dragić (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goran_Dragi%C4%87) (MIP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Improved_Player_Award))


2014–15 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
10th
Pacific
3rd
39
43
.476
28




2015–16 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
14th
Pacific
4th
23
59
.280
50





There's your real 6

[SpursforSix]

What's the probability of this?





2010–11 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%9311_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
10th
Pacific
2nd
40
42
.488
17




2011–12 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%9312_Phoenix_Suns_season) [c] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Phoenix_Suns_seasons#endnote_Lock2c)
NBA
Western
10th
Pacific
3rd
33
33
.500
17




2012–13 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%9313_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
15th
Pacific
5th
25
57
.305
32




2013–14 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
9th
Pacific
3rd
48
34
.585
9

Goran Dragić (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goran_Dragi%C4%87) (MIP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Improved_Player_Award))


2014–15 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
10th
Pacific
3rd
39
43
.476
28




2015–16 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
14th
Pacific
4th
23
59
.280
50




There's your real 6

Just to clarify...since you didn't include the headers...what the stat on the far right? In 2015-2016, it's 50.

[resistanze]

Just to clarify...since you didn't include the headers...what the stat on the far right? In 2015-2016, it's 50.

Game behind division leader?

[UNT Eagles 2016]

A parrot has more brain cells than Chickenshit aka Culburn

[Thread]

A parrot has more brain cells than Chickenshit aka Culburn

They were selling your shit.

[DMC]

Game behind division leader?
Probably. The empty columns are the focal points. No post season... none. 6 fucking years.

[resistanze]

Probably. The empty columns are the focal points. No post season... none. 6 fucking years.

Pretty sure I see a MIP in one of those.


:lol

[midnightpulp]

Last word on this, and I'm only really interested since I am a probability nerd because I used to play poker.

Since whoever made the graph's math was incomplete, it confused me what exactly he was doing. But I get it now. He was trying to calculate the prob of Manu splitting his FTs. What he forget to do was multiply the .1971 figure times 2. Splitting freethrows can materialize in two ways: Make first, miss second and vice versa, so the probability of Manu splitting was .3942. All the OP's graph did was give us the prob of a make and miss in that specific sequence. A split helps the Heat no matter what sequence it comes in.

DSF will still be stubborn and spin, because he hates losing to me, but there's no argument now. The graph's math was incomplete for the person wanted to calculate.

A two shot free-throw sequence can play out in the following ways: Make/Make, Make/Miss, Miss/Make, Miss/Miss. Using Manu's FT% of .73, we get:

.73x.73=.5329
.73x.27=.1971
.27x.73=.1971
.27x.27=.0729

When we add those 4 percentages up we get 100%, so we covered everything that can happen in a two shot FT sequence.

So in reality, the percentage of something going right for the Heat (anything other than 2 made FTs is advantageous to the Heat) when Manu first stepped to the line is about 46%. With Manu being a 73 percent shooter, he's not a big favorite to make two FTs in a row. And Kawhi is actually an underdog to do such (.63x.63=0.3969)

And the overall odds of something going right for the Heat in those two FT situations (.46x.3969) is 0.1825 or 18.25 percent.

So consider that, let's see the overall odds of events that had to go right for the Heat to be able to tie the game:

(.1825 x .375 [Lebron 3] x .41 [Allen 3] .26 x .26 [both o-boards])=.00189 or .189, about 525 to 1 odds. Factor in Parker's miss at the end (assuming he had a 30% chance to make it) and it's .132, about 750 to 1 odds.

[da_suns_fan]

What's the probability of this?





2010–11 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%9311_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
10th
Pacific
2nd
40
42
.488
17




2011–12 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%9312_Phoenix_Suns_season) [c] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Phoenix_Suns_seasons#endnote_Lock2c)
NBA
Western
10th
Pacific
3rd
33
33
.500
17




2012–13 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%9313_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
15th
Pacific
5th
25
57
.305
32




2013–14 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013%E2%80%9314_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
9th
Pacific
3rd
48
34
.585
9

Goran Dragić (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goran_Dragi%C4%87) (MIP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Most_Improved_Player_Award))


2014–15 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
10th
Pacific
3rd
39
43
.476
28




2015–16 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015%E2%80%9316_Phoenix_Suns_season)
NBA
Western
14th
Pacific
4th
23
59
.280
50





There's your real 6

Yeah..i dont care. But Ive noticed you been quite obsessed lately. Every post in every thread is about the Phoenix Suns.

Rememer what I told you:

https://media.giphy.com/media/Dvw2lJqlTuJmo/giphy.gif

[da_suns_fan]

Last word on this.

How do my nuts taste Mr Clueless? :lol

[DMC]

Yeah..i dont care.



Yeah you care. You care more than almost anyone here.

[da_suns_fan]

Yeah you care. You care more than almost anyone here.

If you say so! :tu:tu

[midnightpulp]

How do my nuts taste Mr Clueless? :lol

Your boy who made that graphic fucked up. Both you and I know it, but you're just too proud to admit it.

[Sean Cagney]

And yet that's still higher than the probability of the suns winning a championship anytime soon :lmao

:lol Probability of 6 titles is higher than the Suns winning one title tbh......

[da_suns_fan]

Your boy who made that graphic fucked up. Both you and I know it, but you're just too proud to admit it.

No, now youre just trying to post like me. :lol

"Sometimes I dream....that he is me! Dont you see thats how I dream to be? Like DSF! If I could be like DSF!"

As I already taught you, this isnt an example of a discrete probability scenario because players arent coins or playing cards. Anxiety, fatigue and mental situations affect performance. Im going to shred your stupid "number crunching" once and for all with one question:


If the odds of the Warriors missing their final shots are so small as youre suggesting (1/1500), how is it even possible that the other team only made one shot during the same time period? It wasnt just one team that threw up nothing but bricks, every player except Kyrie Irving missed every shot attempt over the last 4:13. If the odds are so small that they would keep missing, what are the odds that BOTH teams would keep missing?

It's because fatigue, anxiety and PRESSURE affected performance. This is why this isnt a "die rolling" example. This is why youre an idiot.

Game. Set. Match.

[ambchang]

No, now youre just trying to post like me. :lol

"Sometimes I dream....that he is me! Dont you see thats how I dream to be? Like DSF! If I could be like DSF!"

As I already taught you, this isnt an example of a discrete probability scenario because players arent coins or playing cards. Anxiety, fatigue and mental situations affect performance. Im going to shred your stupid "number crunching" once and for all with one question:


If the odds of the Warriors missing their final shots are so small as youre suggesting (1/1500), how is it even possible that the other team only made one shot during the same time period? It wasnt just one team that threw up nothing but bricks, every player except Kyrie Irving missed every shot attempt over the last 4:13. If the odds are so small that they would keep missing, what are the odds that BOTH teams would keep missing?

It's because fatigue, anxiety and PRESSURE affected performance. This is why this isnt a "die rolling" example. This is why youre an idiot.

Game. Set. Match.

The same logic applies to the Spurs missing shots, which was your main point where Spurs choked more than GSW.

The example MNP used remains consistent between the two scenarios, and have the same assumptions. You are attempting to applying one set of assumptions to one, but not to the other.

[da_suns_fan]

The same logic applies to the Spurs missing shots,

Sure, the best we can do is look at other teams in same situation (up by X with Y seconds to go) and see how they fared. Someone did a SQL query and determined teams in Spurs said position win ~99% of the time. Mind you thats not a probability, just an empirical fact.

I have no idea what the winning percentage of home teams when the game is tied with 4 minutes to go, but Im pretty positive its not ~99%.

[ambchang]

Sure, the best we can do is look at other teams in same situation (up by X with Y seconds to go) and see how they fared. Someone did a SQL query and determined teams in Spurs said position win ~99% of the time. Mind you thats not a probability, just an empirical fact.

I have no idea what the winning percentage of home teams when the game is tied with 4 minutes to go, but Im pretty positive its not ~99%.

I have to see the dataset.

The dataset of the Spurs situation is a lot smaller than that of the Warriors situation.

[Brazil]

Probability of OP be a huge faggot: 100%

[140]

Probability of OP be a huge faggot: 100%

http://i.imgur.com/WydeZsv.gif

[Thread]

http://i.imgur.com/WydeZsv.gif

You'll have to go thru me to get to da.

& I ain't an easy clean.

[baseline bum]

http://i.imgur.com/WydeZsv.gif

robinlopez.gif

[140]

You'll have to go thru me to get to da.

& I ain't an easy clean.

Bend over, I'll show you what ain't an easy clean while I go thru you

[Arcadian]

Probability of OP be a huge faggot: 100%

:lol

[UZER]

:lol Today's da suns fan

[midnightpulp]

No, now youre just trying to post like me. :lol

"Sometimes I dream....that he is me! Dont you see thats how I dream to be? Like DSF! If I could be like DSF!"

As I already taught you, this isnt an example of a discrete probability scenario because players arent coins or playing cards. Anxiety, fatigue and mental situations affect performance. Im going to shred your stupid "number crunching" once and for all with one question:


If the odds of the Warriors missing their final shots are so small as youre suggesting (1/1500), how is it even possible that the other team only made one shot during the same time period? It wasnt just one team that threw up nothing but bricks, every player except Kyrie Irving missed every shot attempt over the last 4:13. If the odds are so small that they would keep missing, what are the odds that BOTH teams would keep missing?

It's because fatigue, anxiety and PRESSURE affected performance. This is why this isnt a "die rolling" example. This is why youre an idiot.

Game. Set. Match.

Nope. The players still have to be treated as dice because we can't quantify how exactly pressure and anxiety affects any given player's performance

And lol lecturing me about using discrete prob when the person whose work you linked used it as well.

Like always, you prove yourself to be a massive dumbshit.

[Chris]

:lol Today's da suns fan

:lol

[DMC]

You'll have to go thru me to get to da.

& I ain't an easy clean.
Oh stop. All he needs to do is push your wheelchair to the side.

[Thread]

Oh stop. All he needs to do is push your wheelchair to the side.

- "Promises, promises."

- Ernie "The Cat" Ladd

[Chris]

- "Promises, promises."

- Ernie "The Cat" Ladd

Random fact about the big cat -if the promoter tried to shortchange him or do something underhanded, he would take his gear, load it up into his bag, and walk out into the audience shortly before the show. He would walk around the ring, then leave through the exit ramp or back door. He made sure every fan there saw him before leaving for the next show. The promoter ended up taking the hit trying to explain why his main event and main draw wasn't going to be performing tonight.

[tonight...you]

http://www.myk104.com/dede/wp-content/uploads/sites/9/2013/06/kilopkg.jpg
https://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.Mbd2eb7772db83da50a33f15266102c08H0&pid=15.1&P=0&w=300&h=300
a
Wait... Amy Duncan left Tim for Eduardo Najera?!
HA HA HA HAAAA HAHAHAH HAAA HAA HA HA... HAAAAA!!!!

I'm sorry... but... what?

[Thread]

Random fact about the big cat -if the promoter tried to shortchange him or do something underhanded, he would take his gear, load it up into his bag, and walk out into the audience shortly before the show. He would walk around the ring, then leave through the exit ramp or back door. He made sure every fan there saw him before leaving for the next show. The promoter ended up taking the hit trying to explain why his main event and main draw wasn't going to be performing tonight.

That was always a possibility (a cancellation). Almost pervasive when I lived in Omaha in the '70's. Every fucking time a good match would be cancelled during the evening. Nothing you could do, just part of the game. Very frustrating.

[Chris]

That was always a possibility (a cancellation). Almost pervasive when I lived in Omaha in the '70's. Every fucking time a good match would be cancelled during the evening. Nothing you could do, just part of the game. Very frustrating.

You grew up with the territories; that's awesome. I was forced to watch WWF/Eastern Chamionship Wrestling before it was owned by Paul E. and crafted into ECW. Big fan of Roddy Piper and Bret Hart growing up. The Rockers were my favorite tag team.

[Thread]

You grew up with the territories; that's awesome. I was forced to watch WWF/Eastern Chamionship Wrestling before it was owned by Paul E. and crafted into ECW. Big fan of Roddy Piper and Bret Hart growing up. The Rockers were my favorite tag team.

Yep, I started with the Cleveland/Detroit/Windsor area, then moved to Omaha and had the NWA with the Gagne's running it. Cleveland was better with the The Sheik, Bobo Brazil, Johnny Valentine, the Kangaroos. It was excellent. Omaha was a bit smug and not as impromptu.

[tonight...you]

Yep, I started with the Cleveland/Detroit/Windsor area, then moved to Omaha and had the NWA with the Gagne's running it. Cleveland was better with the The Sheik, Bobo Brazil, Johnny Valentine, the Kangaroos. It was excellent. Omaha was a bit smug and not as impromptu.
I watched the Tennessee stuff with Cornett and his troupe. I was in Corpus Christi and we'd get the local show at 11PM on Saturdays. Makes me want to go get a tennis racket and beat you til you confess your sins right now.