FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO Projections..

[HarlemHeat37]

http://i66.tinypic.com/1193wpu.jpg
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http://i64.tinypic.com/4ufgus.jpg

[Mugen]

crofl.

[SpursFan86]

Legitimately laughed out loud as soon as I read Parker's category and 5-year projected market value :lol

[DPG21920]

Seems really low for Kawhi projection wise. Also has every single starter declining?

[HarlemHeat37]

http://i68.tinypic.com/29o3eix.jpg
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http://i68.tinypic.com/4tqyw6.jpg
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http://i68.tinypic.com/11lu3xy.jpg

[spursistan]

ROFL.. projection has Kawhi "peaked" already :lol

[TheGoldStandard]

Up and Comer! :lobt2:

[dabom]

ROFL.. projection has Kawhi "peaked" already :lol

I can't take it serious when that shit happens. :lol

[apalisoc_9]

Scrub :lmao

Check your pm bro

[cjw]

I can't take it serious when that shit happens. :lol

There's a reason these guys are getting crappy paychecks from Disney while the real talent moves over to teams.

[dabom]

Did someone edit SCRUB on Tony Parker's category? :lmao



































:lmao

[Dex]

How is LMA classified as an "average starter" while Green is a "good starter"?

[tonight...you]

This chart has nothing going for it, except for categorizing Parker as "Scrub". Lol.
Well... even a broken clock gets it right twice a day, if you throw out the AM/PM's.

[Tully365]

According to this, Kawhi has peaked at age 25, and will be in decline for the next 5 seasons?

Pretty stupid.

[look_at_g_shred]

LMA 'average starter' LOL

[TheGreatYacht]

Kyle Anderson
Category: Up-and-comer
5-yr market value: 75.5M

HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA this thread :lmao

[tonight...you]

According to this, Kawhi has peaked at age 25, and will be in decline for the next 5 seasons?

Pretty stupid.
Zero sense. Is this some human-less algorithm based off of some Harvard grad-hopeful's formula and he never even watched Ball except in a passing sense?
That's what this feels like.

[dabom]

Kyle Anderson
Category: Up-and-comer
5-yr market value: 75.5M

HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA this thread :lmao

I saw this shit. Up and comer 35% shooter in the playoffs. :lmao

[TheGreatYacht]

I saw this shit. Up and comer 35% shooter in the playoffs. :lmao
2016: 32FG%
2017: 33FG%
2018: 34FG%
.......
2023: 39FG%
....... Etc etc :lol

[HarlemHeat37]

Not surprised about Aldridge, tbh..virtually all advanced metrics hate his game..there are certain players that are always going to be undervalued by the numbers due to their style of play..

[dabom]

Not surprised about Aldridge, tbh..virtually all advanced metrics hate his game..there are certain players that are always going to be undervalued by the numbers due to their style of play..

But he brings raw numbers and is reliable for his 20 and 10. You take him all day.

[SAGirl]

Well, I hope we didn't witness Kawhi's best season at 24 years old. That's unreasonable. And I bet that projection for Kyle doesn't take into account that he was played all over the map in positions without a legit 3 point shot. His acquired threat from range I think raises his ceiling. Still, these two are the highest ceiling young players in the team long term...

We still don't know what Dejounte is and we won't know for 2 more years. Hmmm Spurs in a weird spot for the future. Got to find another gem or FA.

[SAGirl]

Not surprised about Aldridge, tbh..virtually all advanced metrics hate his game..there are certain players that are always going to be undervalued by the numbers due to their style of play..
Doesn't create for others IMO. That's a must for a superstar.

[tonight...you]

But he brings raw numbers and is reliable for his 20 and 10. You take him all day.
Ouchie. Why you gotta use that shiv as often as you do?
Shit hurts...

[dabom]

Guess Kobe and Jordan aren't Superstars...

[HarlemHeat37]

But he brings raw numbers and is reliable for his 20 and 10. You take him all day.

I didn't say I agree with the assessment of him:lol

I'm just saying, players like Aldridge are always undervalued by advanced metrics and new-media, due to style of play..

[dabom]

I didn't say I agree with the assessment of him:lol

I'm just saying, players like Aldridge are always undervalued by advanced metrics and new-media, due to style of play..

:lol

[houston spurs fan]

This is why Daryl Morey is on the chopping block ....metrics are lame

[Hoops Czar]

Not surprised about Aldridge, tbh..virtually all advanced metrics hate his game..there are certain players that are always going to be undervalued by the numbers due to their style of play..

I'm sure if TP was a rebounder, he'd be labeled a defensive specialist like Dewayne Dedmon or Luis Scola (:lmao)

[HarlemHeat37]

This is why Daryl Morey is on the chopping block ....metrics are lame

Most of Morey's moves are actually anti-metrics, despite his beliefs:lol

The only "anti-establishment" principles that he actually follows(that are related to the basketball geek beliefs) are coaches not making an impact and chemistry being irrelevant..

[Chris]

LMA 'average starter' LOL

:lol

[SPURt]

The description on the website says the algorithm predicted the breakouts of Kawhi, Gaymond, and Giannis Antekewhydoieventry. These results look about as useful as a vagina in a gay porn.

[mudyez]

-$1m?

I want Boban back!

[Hoops Czar]

-$1m?

I want Boban back!

Either those projections are nonsense and should be taken with a grain of salt, or Spurstalk has a weird fetish for scrubs, broken down nobodies and YouTube highlight videos.

[HarlemHeat37]

Either those projections are nonsense and should be taken with a grain of salt, or Spurstalk has a weird fetish for scrubs, broken down nobodies and YouTube highlight videos.

Every analysis and algorithm-reliant metric should be taken with a grain of salt, obviously..

[houston spurs fan]

Most of Morey's moves are actually anti-metrics, despite his beliefs:lol

The only "anti-establishment" principles that he actually follows(that are related to the basketball geek beliefs) are coaches not making an impact and chemistry being irrelevant..
No clue what you are talking about per par. He comes on Sports Talk 790 down here all the time. He talks about chemistry and also look at the coaching decisions.

[HarlemHeat37]

No clue what you are talking about per par. He comes on Sports Talk 790 down here all the time. He talks about chemistry and also look at the coaching decisions.

I don't care about what he says, I've heard him talk on ESPN radio, too, his actual personnel moves don't reflect that, at all:lol

He has spent years signing players that don't fit together, stylistically, and they have had serious locker room problems for years..

[r0drig0lac]

LMA 'average starter' LOL

yep the guy is a all-star and all-nba

[baseline bum]

http://i.imgur.com/7z7fNeJ.png

[baseline bum]

http://i.imgur.com/tdF3pKg.png

[houston spurs fan]

I don't care about what he says, I've heard him talk on ESPN radio, too, his actual personnel moves don't reflect that, at all:lol

He has spent years signing players that don't fit together, stylistically, and they have had serious locker room problems for years..
Les Alexander calls the shots down here, he likes big names (Barkley, Pippen, Tmac, and on and on). Not worth an argument though so I'm done, but Morey does leans heavily on metrics and is one of the leading experts on metrics in the country.

[HarlemHeat37]

Les Alexander calls the shots down here, he likes big names (Barkley, Pippen, Tmac, and on and on). Not worth an argument though so I'm done, but Morey does leans heavily on metrics and is one of the leading experts on metrics in the country.

Everybody is aware of his reputation and the perception:rolleyes

[Kawhitstorm]

Seems really low for Kawhi projection wise. Also has every single starter declining?

It has to do w/ win-share being a cumulative stat & Kawhi operating under Pop's minute limits. Otherwise, it makes ZERO sense for Kawhi to have less win-shares than Jimmy Butler (11.2) on a 50 win team circa 2014-15 which was achieved on a reasonable 2500 minutes.:lol (It would be better if they made the analysis using WS/48 since that would factor in the minutes)

The 2016-17 Spurs are going to be somewhat like the 2010-11 Celtics who won 56 games & Kawhi's role is going to be similar to Pierce w/ a higher usage rate.
-2010-11 Pierce (80 games/ 35 MPG / USG: 24%): 2774 MP, 18.9/5.4/3.3, 11.6 WS (WS/48: 0.201) (Per 36: 19.6/5.6/3.4)
-2015-16 Kawhi (72 games/ 33 MPG / USG: 25.8%): 2380 MP, 21.2/6.8/2.6, 13.7 WS (WS/48: 0.277:wow) (Per 36: Per 36: 23/7.5/2.8)

My projection:

-2015-16 Kawhi (76 games/ 35 MPG / USG: 27%): 2660 MP, 24/7/3.5, 14.5 WS (WS/48: 0.245)

Let's just hope he stays healthy (along w/ everyone else) otherwise what I projected is within his reach.:toast

[houston spurs fan]

Everybody is aware of his reputation and the perception:rolleyes
Lol

[Kawhitstorm]

Not surprised about Aldridge, tbh..virtually all advanced metrics hate his game..there are certain players that are always going to be undervalued by the numbers due to their style of play..

Off the top of my head:
-Carmelo
-Klay "Best 2-way player" Thompson
-Kyrie
-MVPorker
-Monta Ellis

Basically, guy who just get buckets for the most part.

It equates DeFrozen to Klay without factoring in the intangibles.:lol

[SAGirl]

Off the top of my head:
-Carmelo
-Klay "Best 2-way player" Thompson
-Kyrie
-MVPorker
-Monta Ellis

Basically, guy who just get buckets for the most part.

It equates DeFrozen to Klay without factoring in the intangibles.:lol
Good point!

[Kawhitstorm]

Guess the identity of this point guard:

Category:

BORDERLINE ALL-STAR
5-yr market value:
$121.5m


:wakeup

[Leetonidas]

75 million projected value for Kyle Anderson?? :lmao

[ElNono]

Not surprised about Aldridge, tbh..virtually all advanced metrics hate his game..there are certain players that are always going to be undervalued by the numbers due to their style of play..

Thanks for posting... surprised Manu is still so effective at his age, tbh

[tholdren]

Ban OP