Trump getting raped in polls since DNC

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Election Update: Trump’s Slump Deepens In The Polls

There’s no longer any doubt that the party conventions have shifted the presidential election substantially toward Hillary Clinton. She received a larger bounce from her convention than Donald Trump got from his, but Trump has continued to poll so poorly in state and national surveys over the past two days that his problems may be getting worse.

The recent Fox News, Marist College and NBC News/Wall Street Journal national polls show Trump trailing Clinton by 9 to 14 percentage points, margins that would make for the largest general election blowout since 1984 if they held. Clinton’s numbers in those polls are on the high end of what we’ve seen lately — Marist, for instance, has generally had a Clinton-leaning house effect in its polls this year. By contrast, a series of polls released earlier in the week generally put Clinton’s advantage at 5 to 8 percentage points.

The new polls are noteworthy, however, because they postdate the earlier surveys — Marist’s poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday, for instance. That opens up the possibility that the spiral of negative stories for Trump, such as his criticism of the family of a Muslim-American soldier killed in action and his renewed feud with GOP leadership, are deepening his problems above and beyond Clinton’s convention bounce. Not only have Clinton’s numbers risen since the Democratic National Convention, but Trump’s numbers have fallen back into the mid- to high 30s in polls that include third-party candidates. And Trump’s favorability ratings, following modest improvement after his convention, are now about as bad as they’ve ever been.

Meanwhile, polls of Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire — three swing states with demographics that, in theory, could be friendly to Trump — showed Clinton with leads of 9 percentage points, 11 points and 15 points, respectively. Those are big leads for Clinton, but they shouldn’t be all that surprising: The margins look a lot like the ones by which Barack Obama defeated John McCain in those states in 2008, an election he won by 7.3 percentage points overall. According to our now-cast, Clinton would defeat Trump by a similar margin nationally, 7.9 percentage points, in a hypothetical election held today. Compared with that new, higher baseline for Clinton, a Suffolk poll showing her “only” 4 points ahead of Trump in Florida, which would have looked like an excellent result for her a week ago, is middling.

Overall, the now-cast estimates that Clinton’s electoral vote total, in an election held today, would be similar to the 365 electoral votes that Obama won in 2008. Although she’d be unlikely to carry Indiana, which Obama surprisingly won in 2008, she could make up for it by winning Arizona or Georgia, states that the now-cast has as tossups. Utah might even be competitive in an election held today — and the now-cast thinks that Texas would produce a closer finish than Pennsylvania.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trumps-slump-deepens-in-polls/

[Warlord23]

Ferret-top could have reined in his rhetoric, given up Twitter and read from teleprompters. But instead he opened his mouth and exhaled a blizzard of turd nuggets on the American public - which to his surprise isn't reacting the way the rabid GOP primary electorate did.

[InRareForm]

Hillary is leading by 4 in georgia

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Hillary is leading by 4 in georgia

Yeah and AZ is a tossup. I don't know that this is a permanent thing but it's definitely a different world right now.

[TheGreatYacht]

Hillary up double digits on numerous reliable polls and is winning in deep red states.... This is getting ugly :lmao

[Splits]

Texas is going to be close, you heard it here first

[ducks]

See last night they said she has so far spent 270 million

[Reck]

See last night they said she has so far spent 270 million

That's throughout the primary season only.

Democratic contenders Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have spent $174 million and $202 million, respectively, or more than $376 million combined.

But dont worry, she'll still outspent Trump just based on how much money she's outraising him by. :lol

[ducks]

Poll: Clinton's Lead Over Trump Narrows to Less Than 3 Points

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.

About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Poll: Clinton's Lead Over Trump Narrows to Less Than 3 Points

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.

About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even.

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton IBD/TIPP Clinton 46, Trump 39 Clinton +7
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein IBD/TIPP Clinton 39, Trump 35, Johnson 12, Stein 5 Clinton +4
Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton WXYZ-TV/Detroit Free Press Clinton 46, Trump 36 Clinton +10
Michigan: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein WXYZ-TV/Detroit Free Press Clinton 43, Trump 32, Johnson 8, Stein 3 Clinton +11
Georgia: Trump vs. Clinton Atlanta Journal-Constitution Trump 40, Clinton 44 Clinton +4
Georgia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Atlanta Journal-Constitution Trump 38, Clinton 41, Johnson 11, Stein 2 Clinton +3

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Crazy and not-so-crazy scenarios

Here are the chances we’ll see these election outcomes.

Electoral College deadlock no candidate gets 270 electoral votes 0.3%
Recount at least one decisive state within 0.5 ppt 4.1%
Clinton wins popular vote 84.7%
Trump wins popular vote 15.2%
Clinton wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 4.0%
Trump wins popular vote but loses Electoral College 0.8%
Johnson wins at least one electoral vote 3.1%
Clinton majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 41.4%
Trump majority wins at least 50 percent of the vote 2.8%
Clinton landslide double-digit popular vote margin 29.0%
Trump landslide double-digit popular vote margin 1.1%
Map exactly the same as in 2012 0.5%
Clinton wins at least one state Mitt Romney won in 2012 82.6%
Trump wins at least one state President Obama won in 2012 58.9%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Trump in a slump

Hillary Clinton’s surge in the polls over the past week has widened her path to victory in November and put Donald Trump in a deeper hole than recent losers Mitt Romney, John McCain or John Kerry faced at this phase of the campaign.

Trump’s disastrous week — in which a series of controversial comments and inaccurate statements helped send the GOP presidential nominee spiraling downward in polls taken after the two national party conventions — has put him significantly behind his Democratic opponent. He now trails by about 7 percentage points in the national averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and HuffPost Pollster, and has been forced to play defense in a number of reliably Republican states.

But for all the talk of Trump’s collapse, Clinton's post-convention bounce returns the race to roughly where it was before July — a month that began with FBI Director James Comey criticizing her “extremely careless” use of a private email server while serving as secretary of state, even as Comey said the government shouldn’t charge Clinton criminally. Clinton has equaled her previous high-water mark in the RealClearPolitics average (6.8 points on June 28) and the HuffPost Pollster model (7.1 points on June 20).

And that widening chasm between the candidates in national polls is playing out on the Electoral College map as well. As Clinton has pulled away from Trump overall, she’s moved traditional battleground states into her column. Clinton posted significant leads this week in Florida, Michigan, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania — which would clinch the election for the Democrat, even if she lost the other seven states POLITICO has identified as battleground states (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin).


Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-polls-slump-226735#ixzz4GaIhF9UQ

[Xevious]

Not only is Trump hurting himself by opening his mouth, his campaign seems to have no direction. Instead of trying to win over the battleground states (which Clinton currently holds all of) or winning back historically red states that are now being contested, he spends days campaigning in deep blue states he has absolutely no shot of winning.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Hillary Clinton’s post-convention polling surge is showing no signs of fading. She leads Donald Trump, on average, by about 7 percentage points in national polls, and is an 83-percent favorite to win on Nov. 8, according to our polls-only model. Our polls-plus model — which accounts for the “fundamentals,” as well as the tendency for a candidate’s numbers to temporarily rise after his or her convention — gives her a 76 percent chance. Those are her largest advantages since we launched our election forecasts back in June.

Clinton’s chances were buoyed by strong numbers in both national and state polling released this weekend:

A new ABC News/Washington Post national poll published on Sunday showed Clinton up 8 percentage points among registered voters. Clinton’s lead jumped 4 points compared to the previous ABC News/Washington survey, conducted before the conventions.

A Morning Consult poll, also published Sunday, also found Clinton up 8 points among registered voters. Clinton was up 5 percentage points in the same poll last weekend, conducted after both conventions. That is, Clinton’s post-convention surge has continued in Morning Consult’s polling.

Two national tracking polls which have generally shown good numbers for Trump also found Clinton building or holding onto her post-convention bounce. Clinton led by 1 percentage point in the latest USC Dornsife/LA Times survey, and by 6 points in the CVOTER International poll — both matching her largest leads from those pollsters.

The only poll showing any real sign of decay in Clinton’s lead is the Ipsos tracking poll, which had Clinton up 2 percentage points as of Friday, down a few points from earlier in the week. For now, it is an outlier, and most polls have Clinton’s bounce holding or expanding.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-post-convention-bump-is-holding-steady/

[Splits]

:cry but the polls are biased and are over-sampling Dems :cry

Signed,
TSA and that homeschooler

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Ducks can spam the forum but I'll just keep this dose of reality bumped.

[RandomGuy]

Ferret-top could have reined in his rhetoric, given up Twitter and read from teleprompters. But instead he opened his mouth and exhaled a blizzard of turd nuggets on the American public - which to his surprise isn't reacting the way the rabid GOP primary electorate did.

"ferret-top" :lol

[RandomGuy]

Not only is Trump hurting himself by opening his mouth, his campaign seems to have no direction. Instead of trying to win over the battleground states (which Clinton currently holds all of) or winning back historically red states that are now being contested, he spends days campaigning in deep blue states he has absolutely no shot of winning.

That is the part his supporters will have a harder, and harder time explaining.

He is running his campaign the way he runs his business, and his campaign is a floundering mess.

What does that say about how he will run things if he were to be president?

[Reck]

More fake and biased polls came out just now..

The Monmouth University Poll released Monday (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/) had the former secretary of State with the support of 46% of registered voters nationally, while Donald Trump had the support of 34%,

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/08/08/monmouth-poll-clinton-gains-trump-drops/88399152/

TheSanityAnnex (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4389) come tell us how these are skewed. :lol

[RandomGuy]

As Trump's Campaign Flounders, Hillary Clinton Dominates The National Ad War

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2016/08/02/post-conventions-hillary-is-dominating-the-airwaves/#5179a52638b3

[hater]

U
Ducks can spam the forum but I'll just keep this dose of reality bumped.

Just make sure to bump this when ShillAdolphs numbers start dropping after the debates :lol

[hater]

It's hilarious to see libertards and neocons alike joined together already celebrating Clintlers presidency :lol

It's going to make it a lot more hilarious come November when Trump snatches the election from their very nose :lmao

[Splits]

More fake and biased polls came out just now..

The Monmouth University Poll released Monday (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/) had the former secretary of State with the support of 46% of registered voters nationally, while Donald Trump had the support of 34%,

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/08/08/monmouth-poll-clinton-gains-trump-drops/88399152/

TheSanityAnnex (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4389) come tell us how these are skewed. :lol

46-34 is registered. Likely voters with leaners pushed and she hits 50% while he is just 37% with all 4 candidates polled.

:cry but look at the crosstabs, 35-26 R vs. D :cry

His problem is he has not consolidated his own party and is no longer winning independents


Clinton has solidified support among her partisan base since the conventions while Trump struggles to lock in his. More than 9-in-10 Democrats (92%) say they will vote for Clinton, up from 88% in July and 85% in June. Just 79% of Republicans are backing Trump, which is virtually unchanged from prior polls (81% in July and 79% in June).

Independents are divided between Trump (32%) and Clinton (30%). In the Monmouth poll taken before the two parties' conventions Trump held a 40% to 31% lead among this group.

[Splits]

But hey, look on the bright side Trumpsters, he's ahead in Utah again!

:lol

[TheSanityAnnex]

More fake and biased polls came out just now..

The Monmouth University Poll released Monday (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/) had the former secretary of State with the support of 46% of registered voters nationally, while Donald Trump had the support of 34%,

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/08/08/monmouth-poll-clinton-gains-trump-drops/88399152/

TheSanityAnnex (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4389) come tell us how these are skewed. :lol

I never said all polls were fake or skewed, I gave a specific example of the Reuters poll, which you agreed was purposely skewed.

[Splits]

I never said all polls were fake or skewed, I gave a specific example of the Reuters poll, which you agreed was purposely skewed.


Some of us are aware that polls are intentionally skewed to show Clinton favorably. At least Reuters is admitting it

So not all, just some unknown quantity. Got it.

[TheSanityAnnex]

So not all, just some unknown quantity. Got it.

:tu

[TheSanityAnnex]

http://www.truthrevolt.org/sites/default/files/styles/content_full_width/public/field/image/articles/rallycomparison.jpg?itok=avGdNECE

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It's not unknown how they bias, we have several cycles worth of data which includes polls and election outcomes including this year's primaries. 538 made his name doing it and has Hillary favored with 4:1 odds.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

http://i65.tinypic.com/2vv1b0j.jpg

GA and AZ are trending blue. If she flips those states it will be the biggest statement since 1984. :lol and now it's 6:1.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

U

Just make sure to bump this when ShillAdolphs numbers start dropping after the debates :lol

And then there is the real world where Clinton, a seasoned attorney and politician, articulates policy positions extremely well whereas Trump tries to insult which hurts him in the contested electors in the general.

The shit that sells in the primary doesn't sell now. Youre like him and just cannot help yourself.

[hater]

The same seasoned attorney that killed our ambassador, created ISIS and woulda shot down Russian jets thus starting WW3??

[Pelicans78]

The same seasoned attorney that killed our ambassador, created ISIS and woulda shot down Russian jets thus starting WW3??

ISIS was created in 2006.

[Extra Stout]

There's never going to be another Republican President. The coalition they've had since 1968 has collapsed, and there is no path forward. They were always a coalition of movement conservatives, big business, and nationalists. The social conservatives were really just nationalists all along -- look at evangelical support for Trump. But for 40+ years, big business and the movement guys got some goodies, but the nationalists suffered loss after loss. And most of the nationalism was white nationalism. Most of evangelical Christianity in this country was just a religious veneer smeared over a less virulent form of white nationalism to make it look respectable. The nationalists were always the base, and this year they have rebelled and gone for the strongman. And next time they'll go for another strongman. Because what they wanted the GOP to do was to stem the tide to keep black and brown people out, or at least keep them down, but the GOP never did that. I mean, they'd screw over poor people in general, but their heart was never in screwing over minorities, beyond just not doing anything to fix the past. The economic changes over the past 40 years have been great for the top 15% or so, and there have been lots of programs to give minorities a leg up. But the white working class feels like it has all been at their expense, so they have rebelled and embraced white race consciousness. The rest of the GOP won't be able to stomach this. When it was wink wink nudge nudge they played along, but it's too overt now. The elites culturally identify more with the Democrats anyway, and at that level there is a bipartisan socially liberal consensus. The Mitt Romney wing of the party is now a more natural fit with the Democrats, and eventually the Paul Ryan wing will be too. So all the GOP will have is its white nationalist rump, and while that can still win some state elections, it can't win nationally. And with Democratic policy running the country, demographics mean that rump will get smaller and smaller. What is interesting is whether the white nationalists will reject the American creed outright from their identity and try to take political power by force once they realize they can't win elections anymore.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

The same seasoned attorney that killed our ambassador, created ISIS and woulda shot down Russian jets thus starting WW3??

:lol BENGHAZI!!

You would need to deflect from their relative ability to debate. Hillary might be a twat but she is not stupid or inexperienced by any stretch.

[Splits]

https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NyScdbmd7VA/V6kUCuRw4VI/AAAAAAAAlBI/djhf-GlVfTMgllV76Is7lCdyYrB2zfWTwCLcB/s1600/Screenshot%2B2016-08-08%2Bat%2B4.21.15%2BPM.png

[Th'Pusher]

The social conservatives were really just nationalists all along -- look at evangelical support for Trump. But for 40+ years, big business and the movement guys got some goodies, but the nationalists suffered loss after loss. And most of the nationalism was white nationalism. Most of evangelical Christianity in this country was just a religious veneer smeared over a less virulent form of white nationalism to make it look respectable.

Pretty solid take, tbh...this piece in particular :tu

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Hillary Clinton’s rise in the polls has brought back accusations, similar to those made by Mitt Romney supporters in 2012, that the polls are skewed against the Republican nominee, Donald Trump. The podcast crew breaks down why that’s unlikely and explains what information pollsters use to weight their polls and construct their samples. FiveThirtyEight contributor Julia Azari also joins the podcast to talk about why a third-party candidacy is not taking off, even though some of the conditions seem right.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-conversation-about-skewed-polls-is-back/

[DarrinS]

Pretty solid take, tbh...this piece in particular :tu

We all have white hooded pajamas, tbh

[Th'Pusher]

We all have white hooded pajamas, tbh

You're an evangelical? I thought you professed deism.

[hater]

ISIS was created in 2006.

Negatory

[DarrinS]

You're an evangelical? I thought you professed deism.

No, I'm a Rebublican, therefore I'm racist, bigoted, homophobic, sexist, Islamophobic, xenophobic, and misogynist.

On the flip side, Hillary carries hot sauce with her at all times. She's down.

[Spurminator]

No, I'm a Rebublican, therefore I'm racist, bigoted, homophobic, sexist, Islamophobic, xenophobic, and misogynist.


This is your problem. You identify with the worst elements of your party and white knight for them even though you say you're not one of them. ES' post clearly wasn't about moderate non-evangelical Republicans, yet you're still taking his post as an attack on you.

You do the same thing when anyone calls out racists, xenophobes, etc. If you're not one, then don't take offense when they're called out.

It's pretty easy to distance yourself from barbarism.

[MannyIsGod]

This article is a bit longer explanation of ES posted above. I know I discussed this when I posted here before. The talk after 2012 was that the GOP had to learn to be more attractive to minorities, but they've done the opposite. They've doubled down on white nationalism and they've done it with a guy who isn't conservative so it is easy to expose it for what it is. Donald Trump doesn't even pay lip service to conservationism and instead has gone full white populist. In part, liberals share the blame in how we demonized Bush. I thought Bush was as bad as it could get. Holy shit were we wrong. But the intellectuals within the GOP aren't having it. Its amazing that a woman candidate who has been attacked by the GOP for 30+ years is getting more support from the GOP than any other Democrat candidate I can ever remember.

http://www.vox.com/2016/7/25/12256510/republican-party-trump-avik-roy

ES is right. The GOP as we've known it is done with being able to win the presidency with the demographic makeup of this country. This writing has been on the walls for awhile but this time its finally coming to fruition and the demographics will only get more unfavorable for the Trump voters as we move into the future.

[Splits]

There's never going to be another Republican President. The coalition they've had since 1968 has collapsed, and there is no path forward. They were always a coalition of movement conservatives, big business, and nationalists. The social conservatives were really just nationalists all along -- look at evangelical support for Trump. But for 40+ years, big business and the movement guys got some goodies, but the nationalists suffered loss after loss. And most of the nationalism was white nationalism. Most of evangelical Christianity in this country was just a religious veneer smeared over a less virulent form of white nationalism to make it look respectable. The nationalists were always the base, and this year they have rebelled and gone for the strongman. And next time they'll go for another strongman. Because what they wanted the GOP to do was to stem the tide to keep black and brown people out, or at least keep them down, but the GOP never did that. I mean, they'd screw over poor people in general, but their heart was never in screwing over minorities, beyond just not doing anything to fix the past. The economic changes over the past 40 years have been great for the top 15% or so, and there have been lots of programs to give minorities a leg up. But the white working class feels like it has all been at their expense, so they have rebelled and embraced white race consciousness. The rest of the GOP won't be able to stomach this. When it was wink wink nudge nudge they played along, but it's too overt now. The elites culturally identify more with the Democrats anyway, and at that level there is a bipartisan socially liberal consensus. The Mitt Romney wing of the party is now a more natural fit with the Democrats, and eventually the Paul Ryan wing will be too. So all the GOP will have is its white nationalist rump, and while that can still win some state elections, it can't win nationally. And with Democratic policy running the country, demographics mean that rump will get smaller and smaller. What is interesting is whether the white nationalists will reject the American creed outright from their identity and try to take political power by force once they realize they can't win elections anymore.


Jesus fuck. Truth bomb after truth bomb in this post.

Etch this fucking thing in the ether for all the ST to see the next 20 years.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Negatory

The Bush and Rumsfeld decision in the aftermath of the invasion to blackball Baathists carte blanche disenfranchised an entire class of people that would go onto become ISIS. Blaming Hillary for it is asinine.

[Ignignokt]

There's never going to be another Republican President. The coalition they've had since 1968 has collapsed, and there is no path forward. They were always a coalition of movement conservatives, big business, and nationalists. The social conservatives were really just nationalists all along -- look at evangelical support for Trump. But for 40+ years, big business and the movement guys got some goodies, but the nationalists suffered loss after loss. And most of the nationalism was white nationalism. Most of evangelical Christianity in this country was just a religious veneer smeared over a less virulent form of white nationalism to make it look respectable. The nationalists were always the base, and this year they have rebelled and gone for the strongman. And next time they'll go for another strongman. Because what they wanted the GOP to do was to stem the tide to keep black and brown people out, or at least keep them down, but the GOP never did that. I mean, they'd screw over poor people in general, but their heart was never in screwing over minorities, beyond just not doing anything to fix the past. The economic changes over the past 40 years have been great for the top 15% or so, and there have been lots of programs to give minorities a leg up. But the white working class feels like it has all been at their expense, so they have rebelled and embraced white race consciousness. The rest of the GOP won't be able to stomach this. When it was wink wink nudge nudge they played along, but it's too overt now. The elites culturally identify more with the Democrats anyway, and at that level there is a bipartisan socially liberal consensus. The Mitt Romney wing of the party is now a more natural fit with the Democrats, and eventually the Paul Ryan wing will be too. So all the GOP will have is its white nationalist rump, and while that can still win some state elections, it can't win nationally. And with Democratic policy running the country, demographics mean that rump will get smaller and smaller. What is interesting is whether the white nationalists will reject the American creed outright from their identity and try to take political power by force once they realize they can't win elections anymore.


This analysis is quite cynical and overshot, yet not way off. The new coalition will include new voters from the independents and old democrat voters who are more like civic nationalist who would form a coalition with the ethno nationalist.

People will start seeing the kochtopuss strangling the labor force and will revolt if BLM starts turning municipalities sao paulo.

Most people deep down do not want to see a high trust society disinegrate. Nope, my friend. The new nationalist party will evolve and be a major player for a century.

[hater]

The Bush and Rumsfeld decision in the aftermath of the invasion to blackball Baathists carte blanche disenfranchised an entire class of people that would go onto become ISIS. Blaming Hillary for it is asinine.

You got it half right. It's true many of those Iraqi men joined ISIS and it was in its fetal state in Iraq. But killing off Ghadafi and opening the gates of hell in Lybia and the weapons flow gave it life. That's on mother Shillary

[TheGreatYacht]

Bump

[Reck]

Bump

y u so mean? :cry

TheSanityAnnex (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4389) why are you still ducking my question? Day 2.

[boutons_deux]

Clinton Jumps To Double-Digit Lead Over Trump In National Tracking Poll

Hillary Clinton widened her lead over Donald Trump to 10 points in the NBC/SurveyMonkey national tracking poll (http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-opens-double-digit-lead-over-trump-n625676?cid=sm_tw) released Tuesday morning.

Clinton's lead jumped by two points from a 50-42 lead in last week's tracking poll (http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-convention-bounce-nbc-tracking) to a 51-41 lead this week.

She still has a six point lead over Trump when third-party candidates are added to the question. The results then were Clinton 44, Trump 38, Libertarian Gary Johnson 10, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 4.

NBC News/Survey Money polled 11,480 registered voters online August 1-7 with a margin of error plus or minus 1.2 percentage points.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-trump-nbc-survey-monkey-10-point-lead?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tpm-news+%28TPMNews%29

Johnson hurting Trash more than Stein is hurting Hillary.

[TheGreatYacht]

y u so mean? :cry

TheSanityAnnex (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4389) why are you still ducking my question? Day 2. TheSanityAnnex

[clambake]

No, I'm a Rebublican, therefore I'm racist, bigoted, homophobic, sexist, Islamophobic, xenophobic, and misogynist.

On the flip side, Hillary carries hot sauce with her at all times. She's down.

i laughed

[DMX7]

http://www.truthrevolt.org/sites/default/files/styles/content_full_width/public/field/image/articles/rallycomparison.jpg?itok=avGdNECE

If Trump had drawn a similar sized crowd he would have been ripped apart for it.

[TheSanityAnnex]

y u so mean? :cry

TheSanityAnnex (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4389) why are you still ducking my question? Day 2.

1. you never asked me a question
2. I responded to your post and even quoted you
3. I appreciate you toning down the emoticons and have noticed you are trying

[Splits]

The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
By Harry Enten (https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/harry-enten/)

We’ve reached that stage of the campaign. The back-to-school commercials are on the air, and the “unskewing” of polls has begun — the quadrennial exercise in which partisans simply adjust the polls to get results more to their liking, usually with a thin sheen of math-y words to make it all sound like rigorous analysis instead of magical thinking.


If any of this sounds familiar — and if I sound a little exasperated — it’s probably because we went through this four years ago. Remember UnSkewedPolls.com? (The website is defunct, but you can view an archived picture of it here.) The main contention of that site and others like it was that the polls had too many Democratic respondents in their samples. Dean Chambers, who ran the site, regularly wrote that the polls were vastly undercounting independents and should have used a higher proportion of Republicans in their samples. But in the end, the polls underestimated President Obama’s margin.


Now the unskewers are back, again insisting that pollsters are “using” more Democrats than they should, and that the percentage of Democrats and Republicans should be equal, or that there should be more Republicans. They point to surveys like the recent one from ABC News and The Washington Post, in which 33 percent of registered voters identified as Democrats compared to 27 percent as Republicans. That poll found Hillary Clinton ahead by 8 percentage points.


But let’s say this plainly: The polls are not “skewed.” They weren’t in 2012, and they aren’t now.


The basic premise of the unskewers is wrong. Most pollsters don’t weight their results by party self-identification, which polls get by asking a question like “generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a….” Party identification is an attitude, not a demographic. There isn’t some national number from the government that tells us how many Democrats and Republicans there are in the country. Some states collect party registration data, but many states do not. Moreover, party registration is not the same thing as party identification. In a state like Kentucky, for example, there are a lot more registered Democrats than registered Republicans, but more voters identified as Republican in the 2014 election exit polls.


A person’s party identification can shift, and therefore the overall balance between parties does too. Democrats have typically had an advantage in self-identification — a 4 percentage point edge in 2000, a 7-point advantage in 2008 and a 6-point edge in 2012, according to exit polls — but they had no advantage in the 2004 election. Since 1952, however, almost every presidential election has featured a Democratic advantage in party identification.


Here’s the margin that Democrats have had in self-identification since 1952, according to the American National Elections Studies and, starting in 1972, exit polls.

https://i1.wp.com/espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2016/08/enten-democratic-edge-11.png?quality=90&strip=all&w=1150&ssl=1


And it’s not crazy to think Democrats will have an advantage in party identification in 2016. With a controversial nominee, many Republicans might not want to identify with the GOP, and may be calling themselves independents.


You should also be skeptical of other attempts to reweight pollsters’ data. One website, LongRoom, claims to “unbias” the polls using “actual state voter registration data from the Secretary of State or Election Division of each state.” The website contends that almost every public poll is biased in favor of Clinton.

Think about what that means: The website is saying that a large number of professional pollsters who make their living trying to provide accurate information — and have a good record of doing so — are all deliberately biasing the polls and aren’t correcting for it. Like many conspiracy theories, that seems implausible. :lol TSA

I’d also point out that election offices from different states collect different data. Some states don’t have party registration; other states don’t collect data on a person’s race; some states collect data on neither. There are some companies that try to fill in missing data for each state, though it costs a lot to get that data. Isn’t it more plausible the people who get paid to know what they are doing are right, while some anonymous website on the internet with unclear methodology is wrong?


Of course, unskewing is simply one of many ways of pretending Clinton hasn’t jumped out to a large post-convention lead against Donald Trump. You could also ask us to imagine a world without polls. You could allege, without any evidence, that outright election fraud will take place. Or you point to Trump’s rally sizes, though George McGovern in 1972, Walter Mondale in 1984 and Mitt Romney in 2012 all had large crowd sizes and lost.


People, though, should stick to reality. Right now, Clinton is leading in almost every single national poll. She leads in both our polls-plus and polls-only forecasts. That doesn’t mean she will win. The polls have been off before, but no one knows by how much beforehand, or in which direction they’ll miss. For all their imperfection, the polls are a far better indicator than the conspiracy theories made up to convince people that Trump is ahead.



https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/

[Pelicans78]

Looks like the 3rd party candidates take away more from Hillary than Trump.

[boutons_deux]

Looks like the 3rd party candidates take away more from Hillary than Trump.

just the opposite

[boutons_deux]

How Trump’s poll decline could lead to a self-perpetuating death spiral for his campaign

There’s a dynamic developing in the presidential race that’s very dangerous for Donald Trump.

New polls are coming in with increasingly dismal news (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/) for the GOP nominee. He now trails Clinton by 8.9 points (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton) in a head-to-head national matchup, on average. If that margin holds up, it would give Clinton the biggest popular vote victory in a presidential race since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide.

That’s all bad enough news for Trump in itself. But these polls have effects that will ripple outward, and could turn a possibly temporary (http://www.vox.com/2016/8/1/12341802/polling-clinton-trump-winning) poll decline into a permanent one.

Polls can play two roles in a campaign. One is as a reflection of the electoral reality. The other, less common role is as a driver of the electoral reality. In Trump's case, the recent spate of bad polls might be doing exactly that — changing the context in which Trump operates, as opposed to simply describing it.

Specifically, these polls could be driving more and more Republicans to abandon a Trump campaign that looks increasingly like a sinking ship.

The self-perpetuating cycle of bad polls for Trump and GOP defections from him

This cycle starts off with bad polling news for Trump.

This cements the perception that he’s very likely to lose, and as a result, more and more Republican elected officials, staffers, and donors become emboldened to come out against him.

Some of these actors, facing electorates with Trump-hostile populations either this year or eventually, will try to flee the sinking ship to save themselves.

Others will try to curry favor with the likely next president, Hillary Clinton. And others will want to position themselves on the right side of history — or at least the right side of a coming intraparty showdown over who gets the blame for Trump’s defeat.

http://www.vox.com/2016/8/9/12404704/trump-clinton-polls-today

[boutons_deux]

Donald Trump needs a miracle to win

Three months from now, with the 2016 presidential election in the rearview mirror, we will look back and agree that the presidential election was over on Aug. 9th.

Of course, it is politically incorrect to say that the die is cast.

Journalistic neutrality allegedly forces us to say that the race isn’t over until November, and most media organizations prefer to hype the presidential contest to generate viewers and readers rather than explain why a photo finish is unlikely.

But a dispassionate examination of the data, combined with a coldblooded look at the candidates, the campaigns and presidential elections, produces only one possible conclusion: Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump in November, and the margin isn’t likely to be as close as Barack Obama’s victory over Mitt Romney.

First, the polling numbers are stunning.

Pre-convention polls showed the race competitive but with Clinton ahead by at least a few points in most cases. Post-convention polls show Clinton leading the race much more comfortably. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll (http://www.wsj.com/articles/poll-shows-democrats-gain-after-convention-while-republican-position-weakens-1470456002?mod=wsj_streaming_latest-headlines)puts Clinton’s margin at 9 points, while Fox

News shows (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/08/04/fox-news-poll-clinton-and-trump-disliked-by-voters.html) it at 10 and The Washington Post/ABC News survey (https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-after-conventions-clinton-leads-trump-by-8-points/2016/08/06/517999c0-5b33-11e6-9aee-8075993d73a2_story.html)finds the margin at 8 points.

These numbers could close a few points or jump around depending on the individual survey, but the race is already well-defined.

In four-way ballots, Clinton maintains her solid lead over Trump, while Libertarian Gary Johnson draws in the high single-digits or low double-digits.

Green Party nominee Jill Stein generally draws in the low to middle single-digits.

Relatively few voters are undecided. (See RealClearPolitics’ poll numbers here (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_st ein-5952.html).)

State polls confirm the national surveys, with some normally Republican-leaning states up for grabs or leaning toward Clinton.

Both major party nominees enter the fall sprint with terrible personal ratings. That’s unprecedented and remarkable, but it doesn’t necessarily make the electorate inherently more volatile, as some have asserted.

Clinton’s favorable rating is up to 37 percent in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and 48 percent in the Post/ABC poll, while Trump’s favorable ratings stand at a much lower 28 percent and 34 percent, respectively, in the two surveys.

Clinton’s unfavorable rating is 53 percent in the NBC/WSJ poll and 50 percent in the Post/ABC survey. Trump’s unfavorable numbers are much higher — 61 percent and 63 percent in the two polls. Clearly, many more registered voters have a net positive view of Clinton than of Trump.

In November, Clinton will need a handful of votes from those with an unfavorable view of her, while Trump will need support from many more voters who have an unfavorable view of him.

Second, major polls show the Democratic electoral coalition holding and the Republican coalition fraying.

Clinton is winning women overwhelmingly, consistently holding margins that are larger (sometimes much larger) than Obama rolled up in 2008 or 2012. At the same times, Trump’s advantage among men generally ranges from somewhere between McCain’s performance (no advantage) and Romney’s (+7), depending on what survey you believe.

Trump is winning white voters by 5 points (NBC/WSJ), 12 points (Post/ABC) or 14 points (CNN). McCain carried that group by 12 points in losing the overall race by over 7 points. Romney lost to Obama by less than 4 points, but he carried whites by 20 points. Again, Trump has a long way to go to get back into the race.

Republican defections remain a huge problem for the GOP nominee, more than likely offsetting any Democratic voters or previous nonvoters Trump can attract. (This was so even before the chief policy director of the House Republican Conference, Evan McMullin (http://www.evanmcmullin.com/), announced his candidacy as an Independent.)

The new Post/ABC survey shows 5 percent of Democrats defecting to Trump, a very normal level of defection.

But Clinton is already getting 11 percent of Republicans, a larger percentage than any Democrat has received over the last four elections.

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/08/09/donald-trump-needs-a-miracle-to-win/?wpisrc=nl_most-draw7&wpmm=1)In May, I wrote that Clinton had a “decisive” advantage, an assessment I reiterated (http://www.rollcall.com/news/rothenblog/clinton-starts-with-a-decisive-advantage%20https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/07/12/with-less-than-four-months-to-go-the-race-remains-hillary-clintons-to-lose/) in July.

But now that the conventions have passed and the race stabilized, Clinton’s advantage has gone from decisive to overwhelming.


In short, Donald Trump needs a miracle.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/08/09/donald-trump-needs-a-miracle-to-win/?wpisrc=nl_most-draw7&wpmm=1 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/08/09/donald-trump-needs-a-miracle-to-win/?wpisrc=nl_most-draw7&wpmm=1)

[Pelicans78]

just the opposite

How is that? Clinton has a bigger lead head-to-head with Trump. When you add in Johnson and/or Stein, her lead narrows unless I'm missing something.

[boutons_deux]

How is that? Clinton has a bigger lead head-to-head with Trump. When you add in Johnson and/or Stein, her lead narrows unless I'm missing something.

Johnson, a libertarian fraud who takes votes from Trash, is polling way ahead of Stein, who takes from Hillary.

[boutons_deux]

Georgia: Clinton 44% Trash 37%

[TheSanityAnnex]

Political Forum: boutons_deux 44% All other posters 37%

[Reck]

1. you never asked me a question
2. I responded to your post and even quoted you
3. I appreciate you toning down the emoticons and have noticed you are trying


Like I said, I will throw away not only the Reuters poll but the Washington Post as well.

Explain the others. More specially, explain why Fox has her up 10. Fucking Fox. :lol

You didn't respond shit. You ran from explaining.

[TheSanityAnnex]

You didn't respond shit. You ran from explaining.

That wasn't even in this thread for fucks sake Reck cue the :lolGet the fuck out of here with this bullshit. I don't scour your post history days back to see if you asked me something. You're nothing but an internet speed bump I forced to roll over from time to time.

[boutons_deux]

Donors for Bush, Kasich and Christie Are Turning to Clinton More Than to Trump

People who donated to establishment Republican candidates in the primary season are more likely to give money to Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, than to their own party’s candidate, Donald J. Trump.

In a typical election year, donors whose candidates have dropped out of the race funnel additional contributions to another candidate in the same party.

But this presidential election is different. Of the donors who gave at least $200 to Jeb Bush, Gov. John Kasich, Gov. Chris Christie or Senator Lindsey Graham in the Republican primaries, more of them have also contributed to Mrs. Clinton than to Mr. Trump, according to Federal Election Commission filings through June.

People who give to multiple candidates are a small percentage of Republican donors. Of the donors to Mr. Bush who also gave to one of the current nominees, 303 — more than 2 percent of the total — gave to Mrs. Clinton. Less than 1 percent of them gave money to Mr. Trump, the filings showed.

Those crossover donations are adding up. Mrs. Clinton has received $2.2 million from donors to candidates who dropped out of the Republican presidential primary, about $600,000 more than Mr. Trump has received from such donors, the filings showed.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/09/us/elections/100000004569400.mobile.html?_r=0

[Reck]

That wasn't even in this thread for fucks sake Reck cue the :lolGet the fuck out of here with this bullshit. I don't scour your post history days back to see if you asked me something. You're nothing but an internet speed bump I forced to roll over from time to time.

Still dodging. :lol

I quoted you directly so the I dont look over your post history excuse is bullshit. And I brought it up on this thread simply because I want an answer and you keep ducking it like the pussy you are.

Just be a man and say you dont have a response and we'll move on.

[TheSanityAnnex]

Still dodging. :lol

I quoted you directly so the I dont look over your post history excuse is bullshit. And I brought it up on this thread simply because I want an answer and you keep ducking it like the pussy you are.

Just be a man and say you dont have a response and we'll move on.
I don't click the red notification button in the top right corner. I have a red 103 there right now, your quote from a few days ago being one of them. Like I said, I don't go searching for your old posts.

Here was my answer directly to you "I never said all polls were fake or skewed, I gave a specific example of the Reuters poll, which you agreed was purposely skewed"

Having said that, there is no reason to answer why she is up in the others I never even mentioned as being skewed.

[TheSanityAnnex]

Still dodging. :lol

I quoted you directly so the I dont look over your post history excuse is bullshit. And I brought it up on this thread simply because I want an answer and you keep ducking it like the pussy you are.

Just be a man and say you dont have a response and we'll move on.
Here is your little direct quote unlooked at, probably #90
http://i1311.photobucket.com/albums/s679/thefuzzylumpkins/Mobile%20Uploads/image_zpstgzy1sga.png

[Reck]

I don't click the red notification button in the top right corner. I have a red 103 there right now, your quote from a few days ago being one of them. Like I said, I don't go searching for your old posts.

Here was my answer directly to you "I never said all polls were fake or skewed, I gave a specific example of the Reuters poll, which you agreed was purposely skewed"

Having said that, there is no reason to answer why she is up in the others I never even mentioned as being skewed.

Fair enough.

[TheSanityAnnex]

Fair enough.
:tu
and please don't take anything I say here personally, even when I call you stupid. I say stupid things here all the time and get called out which entertains me even more. I've continued posting on this board for 10+ years because it is one of the funniest boards I've ever read and I intend to help keep it that way.

[TheSanityAnnex]

But do take me serious when I say I hate Hillary. I've never truly hated anyone besides her.

[ducks]

Former Dem Sen. Joe Lieberman Could Endorse Trump

[spurraider21]

Former Dem Sen. Joe Lieberman Could Endorse Trump
lieberman also endorsed mccain in 2008 and spoke at the republican convention... iirc newt gingrich likes lieberman too. he's been a friend of republicans for some time

[Th'Pusher]

lieberman also endorsed mccain in 2008 and spoke at the republican convention... iirc newt gingrich likes lieberman too. he's been a friend of republicans for some time

Should swing the election to trump no problem, tbh.

[Splits]

Nothing would make me happier than 2nd Amendment People getting to that Zionist fuck Joe Lieberman.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

You got it half right. It's true many of those Iraqi men joined ISIS and it was in its fetal state in Iraq. But killing off Ghadafi and opening the gates of hell in Lybia and the weapons flow gave it life. That's on mother Shillary

They took the arms from the army bases in Northern Iraq. Those deals were brokered by Rumsfeld under Bush. The notion that it took Libya to create arms trafficking in the middle east is just asinine.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Election Update: Polls Show Pennsylvania Back In Clinton’s Firewall

At FiveThirtyEight, we generally prefer state polls to national polls. So far, though, we haven’t had many of them to work with. If you’re getting dozens of national polls every week, but just a smattering of state-level surveys — and that’s what we’ve been getting — you’re better off inferring what’s going on in the states from the trend in national polls, rather than the other way around.

For example, Hillary Clinton has gone from having roughly a 3 or 4 percentage point lead over Donald Trump in national polls in early July to more like an 8-point lead now. Therefore, we’d expect her to gain perhaps 4 or 5 points in polls of Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and other swing states if polls were taken in those states now, compared to the previous versions of those polls conducted a month ago.

On Tuesday, we finally got a bunch of state polls to test the theory — three polls each from Quinnipiac University and Marist College. In fact, the new data mostly confirms our hypothesis, although with some caveats. Clinton gained an average of 4 percentage points across the six surveys. The clearest trend toward Clinton is in Pennsylvania, which is now part of her path of least resistance to 270 electoral votes.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-polls-show-pennsylvania-back-in-clintons-firewall/

[Trainwreck2100]

Here is your little direct quote unlooked at, probably #90
http://i1311.photobucket.com/albums/s679/thefuzzylumpkins/Mobile%20Uploads/image_zpstgzy1sga.png

check your damn notifications already

[ElNono]

For the "unskewed polls" crowd:

The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/

and lol @ this shit from 2012... https://web.archive.org/web/20121011130810/http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

[Reck]

Hillary leading Trump in North Carolina by 9 points. 9 Fucking points. :lmao

Also Colorado by 14, Florida by 5 and Virginia by 13.

All swing states.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/08/poll-clinton-trump-colorado-north-carolina-virginia-226955

[ducks]

la times poll today trump down 1

[Splits]

:lol Trump can win Ohio, Florida, Nevada, Iowa, and NC and still lose

https://i.imgur.com/nI8PgFc.png

[Splits]

SC within the margin of error :lol

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_81116.pdf

[tlongII]

But do take me serious when I say I hate Hillary. I've never truly hated anyone besides her.

I'm with you there brother. It is an absolute embarrassment that she's going to be our next president. And she will unfortunately.

[baseline bum]

I'm with you there brother. It is an absolute embarrassment that she's going to be our next president. And she will unfortunately.

I have no idea why Romney didn't run. He would have beaten her. Instead the Republicans ran out their worst nomination since what, Goldwater? :lol

[TheSanityAnnex]

Why The Media Disinformation Campaign Against Donald Trump Will Fail
2nd Amendment. Babies. Purple hearts. The NFL. Breastfeeding. Immigration law. EB-5. H1-B. Iranian press footage. Endorsements. Deli meat. As someone who is involved in the Presidential election, I couldn’t be more confused as to the types of comments I’ve received in the past week. Here are a few of the best:


“Is it true Donald is dropping out?”
“Which side of the feud are you on, Lewandowski or Manafort?”
“Donald needs to control his erratic behavior.”
“Why won’t Donald listen to anyone on the campaign?”

To say I didn’t know how to answer would be understatement in the least. At one point on a concall, I muted and turned to an associate and we each had to shrug our shoulders and carry on, explaining what sarcasm is—all in attempts to mollify certain members of the media who have the stunning ability to find fault with every single thing Donald did this week. If he crosses his arms and looks to the side, then “Aha! He’s Mussolini!” If he furrows his brow at a reporter, then “Aha! He’s Rudolph Hess!”

http://www.returnofkings.com/93212/why-the-media-disinformation-campaign-against-donald-trump-will-fail?ModPagespeed=noscript

[Fabbs]

Why The Media Disinformation Campaign Against Donald Trump Will Fail
"a Beltway Insider" :rolleyes

[Xevious]

I have no idea why Romney didn't run. He would have beaten her. Instead the Republicans ran out their worst nomination since what, Goldwater? :lol
I liked McCain until he rolled out that retarded whore as his running mate.

[Reck]

I have no idea why Romney didn't run. He would have beaten her. Instead the Republicans ran out their worst nomination since what, Goldwater? :lol

:lmao

Romney couldn't beat a dead corpse.

[ElNono]

I have no idea why Romney didn't run. He would have beaten her. Instead the Republicans ran out their worst nomination since what, Goldwater? :lol

After that 47% comment, Romney would've had it tough, but I bet he would've been neck and neck, tbh... but they had guys that could've run with Romney's gameplan minus the retarded comments and a tepotty VP, and this was an easy win, IMO.

[SnakeBoy]

I have no idea why Romney didn't run. He would have beaten her. Instead the Republicans ran out their worst nomination since what, Goldwater? :lol

He would have never made it through the primaries. He would have been just another guy splitting the establishment vote making even easier for Trump. Although it would've been fun to see if him debate Trump on immigration.

Trump "Build a wall"
Romney "We don't need a wall we need a fence!"
Trump "Deport Illegals"
Romney "That's racist! They will self deport!"

[baseline bum]

:lmao

Romney couldn't beat a dead corpse.

A corpse is a way more inspiring and better candidate than Clinton. Romney wouldn't have to beat the corpse, just Hillary.

[Splits]

https://i.imgur.com/QntUKjI.png

:lol

[FuzzyLumpkins]

http://oi63.tinypic.com/jsh94w.jpg

He is going to lose AZ, GA, OH, NC, VA, FL, NV, IA, and PA. Biggest landslide since 1984.

[z0sa]

I liked McCain until he rolled out that retarded whore as his running mate.

Thats pretty much every independent

[Splits]

Down 25 in New York, still going to campaign there :lol

[Reck]

Down 25 in New York, still going to campaign there :lol

30 When you pit them head to head. :lol

[Splits]

https://i.imgur.com/ThW92Fz.png

:lol home state

[boutons_deux]

Down 25 in New York, still going to campaign there :lol

Repug leaders pissed he was crazy to waste time, money campaigning in DEEP BLUE CT.

[hitmanyr2k]

Even the comment section of Breitbart is melting down :lol

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/08/14/breitbartgravis-poll-hillary-clinton-leads-donald-trump-42-to-37/

[Reck]

30 When you pit them head to head. :lol

http://i66.tinypic.com/10emxpk.jpg

:lol we gon win nue yok!

[TheGreatYacht]

https://i.imgur.com/ThW92Fz.png

:lol home state
Bias media! The people love trump!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzCQYOx-6g4&feature=share

:lol

[Splits]

Bias media! The people love trump!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzCQYOx-6g4&feature=share

:lol

:lmao

[DMX7]

If you wear a "Trump for President" hat in Central Park, then you may as well also carry a sign that says "I hate babies". It's unbelievable.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Monday, August 15
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Washington: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Elway Poll Clinton 43, Trump 24, Johnson 7, Stein 4 Clinton +19
New York: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Siena Clinton 50, Trump 25, Johnson 9, Stein 6 Clinton +25
Sunday, August 14
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CBS News/YouGov Clinton 45, Trump 40, Johnson 5, Stein 2 Clinton +5
Georgia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CBS News/YouGov Trump 45, Clinton 41, Johnson 5, Stein 1 Trump +4
New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein CBS News/YouGov Clinton 45, Trump 36, Johnson 5, Stein 3 Clinton +9
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Breitbart/Gravis Clinton 42, Trump 37, Johnson 9, Stein 3 Clinton +5
Friday, August 12
Race/Topic (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton LA Times/USC Clinton 44, Trump 43 Clinton +1
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 44, Trump 39 Clinton +5
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 41, Trump 36, Johnson 9, Stein 4 Clinton +5
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 48, Trump 39 Clinton +9
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 45, Trump 36, Johnson 9, Stein 2 Clinton +9
Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 46, Trump 33 Clinton +13
Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 43, Trump 31, Johnson 12, Stein 5 Clinton +12
Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 46, Trump 32 Clinton +14
Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein NBC/WSJ/Marist Clinton 41, Trump 29, Johnson 15, Stein 6 Clinton +12
Texas: Trump vs. Clinton KTVT-CBS 11 Trump 46, Clinton 35 Trump +11

[boutons_deux]

If you wear a "Trump for President" hat in Central Park, then you may as well also carry a sign that says "I hate babies". It's unbelievable.

Just ... believe!

[Splits]

Only up 6 in Texas :lmao

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_TX_81616.pdf


Trump Leads By Only 6 in Texas

PPP's new Texas poll finds a relatively tight race, at least on the curve of recent Presidential election results in the state. Donald Trump leads with 44% to 38% for Hillary Clinton, 6% for Gary Johnson, 2% for Jill Stein, and less than half a percent (0) for Evan McMullin. In a head to head contest Trump leads Clinton 50-44 in the state, which Mitt Romney won by 16 points in 2012.

[Splits]

Shill up 9 in Florida :lmao hater

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_081616.asp

[DMX7]

Only up 6 in Texas :lmao

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_TX_81616.pdf

Mr. Trump's hands may be small, but he is going to win big in Texas. That, I can tell you.

[baseline bum]

Only up 6 in Texas :lmao

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_TX_81616.pdf

If Texas ever turns into a battleground state it's time for the GOP to just fold.

[Splits]

If Texas ever turns into a battleground state it's time for the GOP to just fold.

If the beaners would vote proportional to their population it'll happen.

[ElNono]

Fox News Latino poll: Trump has deepened wedge between GOP and Latinos

http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politics/2016/08/16/fox-news-latino-poll-trump-has-deepened-wedge-between-gop-and-latinos/

[Splits]

At least he still has all the racists in Mississippi, +13 :lol

[DMC]

Damn Splits went off the reservation ITT. ES with the philosophically astute yet dead wrong take and Splits fawning over it :lol

[Spurtacular]

She received a larger bounce from her convention than Donald Trump got from his

That lie really stuck out to me. In fact, the media was even saying Clinton got a big bounce from her convention and Donald got no bump or otherwise talked about how it was all gone so fast.
I remember that b/c the Dem Convention couldn't have been a bigger shit show; and the Repub Convention was pretty good actually. Good imagery with the Donald using the hero silhouette too.

[Spurtacular]

Hillary is leading by 4 in georgia

Do you still believe you weren't being lied to?

[Spurtacular]

Yeah and AZ is a tossup.

Oh, look; AZ was a tossup in 2016 too. :lmao

[ElNono]

Solid bump from '16

[Spurtacular]

Hillary up double digits on numerous reliable polls and is winning in deep red states.... This is getting ugly :lmao

They were lying their asses off to you, bro. They're doing it this time around too.

[Spurtacular]

Texas is going to be close, you heard it here first

Oh, this was happening in 2016 too. :lmao

[Spurtacular]

:cry but the polls are biased and are over-sampling Dems :cry

Signed,
TSA and that homeschooler

Eesh. Maybe you should apologize, eh?

[Spurtacular]

More fake and biased polls came out just now..

The Monmouth University Poll released Monday (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/) had the former secretary of State with the support of 46% of registered voters nationally, while Donald Trump had the support of 34%,

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/08/08/monmouth-poll-clinton-gains-trump-drops/88399152/

TheSanityAnnex (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4389) come tell us how these are skewed. :lol

:lol 2016's tranny

[Spurtacular]

Not only is Trump hurting himself by opening his mouth, his campaign seems to have no direction. Instead of trying to win over the battleground states (which Clinton currently holds all of) or winning back historically red states that are now being contested, he spends days campaigning in deep blue states he has absolutely no shot of winning.

Solid analysis.

[Spurtacular]

And then there is the real world where Clinton, a seasoned attorney and politician, articulates policy positions extremely well whereas Trump tries to insult which hurts him in the contested electors in the general.

The shit that sells in the primary doesn't sell now. Youre like him and just cannot help yourself.

Most qualified candidate ever, amirite?

[CosmicCowboy]

Texas is the only big state he wins. Hes gonna get killed. Not necessarily on policy but his ignorant ass tweets. Dumb fuck is killing himself.

[Spurtacular]

More fake and biased polls came out just now..

The Monmouth University Poll released Monday (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_080816/) had the former secretary of State with the support of 46% of registered voters nationally, while Donald Trump had the support of 34%,

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/08/08/monmouth-poll-clinton-gains-trump-drops/88399152/

TheSanityAnnex (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4389) come tell us how these are skewed. :lol


y u so mean? :cry

TheSanityAnnex (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=4389) why are you still ducking my question? Day 2.
TSA Make sure you don't duck this. :lol

[Spurtacular]

Hillary leading Trump in North Carolina by 9 points. 9 Fucking points. :lmao

And it's 2020 and Chumpettes are back to saying shit like this again. :lmao

[pgardn]

Show us where you predicted a Trump win in 2016.

[Spurtacular]

SC within the margin of error :lol

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_SC_81116.pdf

:lol Trump won by 15
:lol :cry muh submission polls :cry

[Spurtacular]

https://i.imgur.com/QntUKjI.png

:lol

Post Biden's now. :lmao

[midnightpulp]

Texas is the only big state he wins. Hes gonna get killed. Not necessarily on policy but his ignorant ass tweets. Dumb fuck is killing himself.

His policy is shit, too. Not sure what traditional conservatives see in this fucker. Oooh, a little tax break. Give me a fuckin' break. The dipshit was never, ever hard on China. Ivanka cutting deals with them. Trump making toothless tariffs that only hurt small farmers and steel companies while Big Tech continues to base most of their manufacturing in China. He doesn't have any comprehensive immigration plan and simply barks about walls and dog whistles the alt-right base. The traditional right would've been apoplectic with how he's cozied up to the Kims, Putins, and Ergodans of the world. He's shunned our allies. Paid phony lip-service to Christianity (that Bible stunt was just grotesque). The PPP money going to his buddies. Praising Confederates as "our proud history" while he stands in front Rushmore.

Is "owning the libs" really worth selling out that many Conservative principles?

[Spurtacular]

Bias media! The people love trump!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzCQYOx-6g4&feature=share

:lol

Back when you were a snowflake. :lol

[ducks]

Shill up 9 in Florida :lmao hater

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_081616.asp

Clinton lost

[pgardn]

Back when you were a snowflake. :lol

He is off his fckn rocker.
But you will take him now as an ally because its all you got.
Conspiratards unite.

[pgardn]

Clinton lost

What?

[Spurtacular]

Show us where you predicted a Trump win in 2016.

I wasn't posting in 2016 ST Political, then. I would've gave the edge to Trump.
But I was surprised that Hillary wasn't able to rig the election.
I would have called out some of those lying polls.

[ducks]

For the "unskewed polls" crowd:

The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/

and lol @ this shit from 2012... https://web.archive.org/web/20121011130810/http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

Yep worked out well for Clinton did it not

[ducks]

Ducks called trump would win

[Spurtacular]

He is off his fckn rocker.
But you will take him now as an ally because its all you got.
Conspiratards unite.

He realized he was being lied to. You should have. You accept it because guess what?
You have the heart of a liar too.

[pgardn]

He realized he was being lied to. You should have. You accept it because guess what?
You have the heart of a liar too.

By whom?

The polls? Practically nobody predicted a Trump win.

And you are a liar.

[Spurtacular]

By whom?

The polls? Practically nobody predicted a Trump win.

And you are a liar.

The system is full of liars. You got exposed.

And :lol at :cry No, you are :cry

[pgardn]

Ducks called trump would win

Post it up ducks from 2015
But remember Ducks, you cant claim you thought Trump would win after he already won, ok?
You do understand, yes?

[DMC]

You can see the hope in this thread, then the subsequent Trump aka Ray Allen 3 to end regulation and basically seal the deal. Whitelash. 4 years of investigations, riots, more investigations, more riots, all that could have been avoided if Hillary could have walked on her own.

[pgardn]

The system is full of liars. You got exposed.

And :lol at :cry No, you are :cry


The system.
The MSM.
The libtards
The ... uhhhh ... those people.

Paranoid fuck.

[ElNono]

Yep worked out well for Clinton did it not

There's nothing controversial about that article, tbh... you probably didn't read it. Shillary lost fair and square...

[ElNono]

You can see the hope in this thread, then the subsequent Trump aka Ray Allen 3 to end regulation and basically seal the deal. Whitelash. 4 years of investigations, riots, more investigations, more riots, all that could have been avoided if Hillary could have walked on her own.

It's actually sad the 'new' face of Democrats is Joe Biden, tbh

[pgardn]

It's actually sad the 'new' face of Democrats is Joe Biden, tbh

Much Better than the actual face of Trump.

[pgardn]

There's nothing controversial about that article, tbh... you probably didn't read it. Shillary lost fair and square...

She most certainly did.
By our rules.

[ElNono]

Much Better than the actual face of Trump.

We're talking Giant Douche vs Turd Sandwich, make no mistake about it.

[Spurtacular]

The system.
The MSM.
The libtards
The ... uhhhh ... those people.

Paranoid fuck.

Well, I'm currently watching a bunch of people wear diapers on their faces and go under house arrest for a pretend pandemic.
Are you sure you know who the paranoid one is?

TheGreatYacht

[boutons_deux]

We're talking Giant Douche vs Turd Sandwich, make no mistake about it.

one of the many reasons why America is fucked and unfuckable

[Spurtacular]

one of the many reasons why America is fucked and unfuckable

Closer to the reason we're on the verge of becoming a shit hole.

[ducks]

Post it up ducks from 2015
But remember Ducks, you cant claim you thought Trump would win after he already won, ok?
You do understand, yes?

Everyone here knows ducks said trump would win in the primaries
Harlemheat37 congrat ducks On a thread

[boutons_deux]

Closer to the reason we're on the verge of becoming a shit hole.

For 100M+ Americans, living on the financial edge with no way up, 10Ms with no health insurance and shortened lives, non-white, non-male, Capitalists screwing non-Capitalists, America is already a shithole, as are the states, cities MISgoverned by Repugs.

Dems nominating Biden is proof that there is no un-shithole-ing America.