YGWHI
08-31-2016, 10:17 AM
How many games will the Golden State Warriors win after adding Kevin Durant to the core of a team that went 73-9 last season?
Which teams might jump from the lottery to the playoffs, and who might they replace?
To help answer these questions, here's an early look at 2016-17 NBA projections using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).
RPM was developed by Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi to estimate a player's on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors. When used along with playing time projections, it's proved to be a very accurate predictive tool overall.
Last season, these projections correctly forecast that the Portland Trail Blazers would be more competitive than expected, the Boston Celtics would maintain their second-half success from the year before and the Milwaukee Bucks would fall out of the playoffs. (They also missed on other teams, including the Toronto Raptors emerging as a top threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference and the Houston Rockets limping along near .500.) Two years ago, RPM foresaw the rise of the Golden State Warriors.
Like last season, I've put together projected playing time based on a formula that estimates games missed based on the number missed over the past three seasons (adjusted for any offseason injuries/suspensions) and my own guesses at how rotations will shake out.
Most veteran players are rated using the multiyear, predictive version of RPM, adjusted for the typical aging curve. Newcomers to the league and players who played too little for an RPM rating are rated using their projected offensive and defensive rating from my SCHOENE projection system, which incorporates translated performance in the NCAA and professional leagues besides the NBA.
Let's take a look at the results.
Western Conference
1.Golden State Warriors Projected wins: 66.8
Within the context of the conservative nature of win projections, which tend to be regressed heavily to the mean, a 67-win projection is remarkable. The Warriors' projection is two wins higher than the next best in the seven years I've gone back to do projections using this method: 64.9 for the 2010-11 Miami Heat, who actually won just 58 games because of the time it took their version of the Big Three to build chemistry on the court.
2.San Antonio Spurs Projected wins: 54.5
It's a huge step downward to second place in the West. With Tim Duncan's retirement and the aging of other core players, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to stay with Golden State in the regular season as they did last season. But RPM still has them comfortably second in the West.
3.Utah Jazz Projected wins: 47.6
This might seem like a crazy leap for a team that didn't make the playoffs last year, but remember: The Jazz actually had the fifth-best point differential in the West (plus-1.8 PPG). Ordinarily, that would translate into 46 wins, and that was despite injuries (including Dante Exum missing the entire season) and before Utah loaded up with veterans this offseason. The Jazz should be considered the favorites to win the Northwest Division.
4.L.A. Clippers Projected wins: 46.3
Given the Clippers won 53 games last year without Blake Griffin for much of the season, a seven-win drop would be a surprise. But RPM sees several key players on the wrong side of the aging curve.
5.Houston Rockets Projected wins: 45.8
RPM projects the Rockets to be a top-five offense next year, but they'll still struggle to reach 45 wins if their defense is worse than an optimistic projection of 16th in the league.
6.Oklahoma City Thunder Projected wins: 45.6
Even without Durant, RPM forecasts the Thunder in the mix for home-court advantage in the West thanks to star point guard Russell Westbrook and a deep cast of young role players.
7.Portland Trail Blazers Projected wins: 44.5
After reaching the second round of the playoffs and adding Festus Ezeli and Evan Turner this offseason, the Blazers hope to take the next step in their development. RPM sees them as about the same team as 2015-16, when they won 44 games but finished fifth in a weaker West.
8.Denver Nuggets Projected wins: 40.4
Quietly, the Nuggets have assembled an intriguing group of young talent (led by RPM favorite Nikola Jokic, projected for plus-5.0 points per 100 possessions) with a few veterans in tow. Even with Danilo Gallinari projected for just 50 games, internal development could be enough to push Denver into surprising playoff contention.
9.Memphis Grizzlies Projected wins: 39.4
Yes, the Grizzlies strengthened their starting lineup by signing Chandler Parsons, but their bench is incredibly thin and several starters (including Parsons) are major injury risks. Gulp.
10.Sacramento Kings Projected wins: 37.7
The Kings have one of the biggest discrepancies of any team between their projection in ESPN's summer forecast (30 wins, 13th in the West) and by RPM, which sees Sacramento deep in average talent around DeMarcus Cousins.
11.Minnesota Timberwolves Projected wins: 37.1
Remember, RPM projections don't factor in coaching, and the arrival of Tom Thibodeau makes the Timberwolves overwhelmingly likely to outperform their projected ranking of 27th in defensive rating.
12.New Orleans Pelicans Projected wins: 37.0
New Orleans is deeper after shopping for midtier free agents this summer, but RPM projects just three players on the roster to be better than league average: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and newcomer Solomon Hill.
13.Dallas Mavericks Projected wins: 34.3
Might this be the year that coach Rick Carlisle, veteran big man Dirk Nowitzki and a cast of newcomers can't get the Mavericks to the playoffs? RPM says yes, since swapping Parsons (plus-1.3) for Harrison Barnes (minus-0.7) grades as a major downgrade.
14.Phoenix Suns Projected wins: 29.2
The Suns figure to be a bit more competitive with the return of RPM favorite Eric Bledsoe (plus-2.2) but are still too young to compete in the West.
15.L.A. Lakers Projected wins: 24.3
Despite their offseason additions of No. 2 pick Brandon Ingram and veterans Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov, RPM has the Lakers with the league's fewest projected wins.
Eastern Conference
1.Cleveland Cavaliers Projected wins: 52.1
While the Cavaliers are still solidly tops in the East, their projection is down from last year's 57 wins because RPM takes a dim view of Kyrie Irving's defense and considers Matthew Dellavedova (plus-1.2 projection) a considerable loss as Irving's backup. Note that this projection assumes J.R. Smith ultimately re-signs in Cleveland.
2.Boston Celtics Projected wins: 49.8
Last year, RPM nailed the Celtics' 48-win finish, though the Raptors jumped ahead of Boston to take second in the East. Now, RPM sees the Celtics taking a modest step forward with the addition of Al Horford.
3.Toronto Raptors Projected wins: 48.8
After getting career years from guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, the Raptors are likely to regress to the pack this year, but fans can take solace in Toronto having outperformed its RPM projection each of the past three seasons.
4.Detroit Pistons Projected wins: 47.5
While most of the East's middle class took a step backward this offseason, the Pistons should improve by virtue of upgrading at backup point guard and center, and RPM sees them as the third team in a tier with Boston and Toronto.
5.Washington Wizards Projected wins: 41.4
There's a big gap between the top four in the East and a pack of teams projected fifth through about 11th. The Wizards lead that group after going 18-13 after last year's All-Star break.
6.Charlotte Hornets Projected wins: 41.0
Though the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (plus-2.0) should be a boost, RPM doesn't like the Hornets' new backup backcourt of Ramon Sessions (minus-2.4) and Marco Belinelli (minus-3.7).
7.Milwaukee Bucks Projected wins: 40.9
The Bucks have oscillated between wildly under- and overperforming projections. If that trend holds, this should be the year for exceeding expectations, and RPM views both Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic (minus-0.6) as upgrades.
8.Indiana Pacers Projected wins: 38.9
By virtue of having one of the East's top players in Paul George and a promising youngster in Myles Turner, the Pacers are getting contender buzz in the East. RPM is not so optimistic, viewing the swap of George Hill (plus-0.8) for Jeff Teague (minus-0.6) as a downgrade.
9.Atlanta Hawks Projected wins: 38.6
RPM has had a tough time forecasting the Hawks, pegging Atlanta for near-.500 records each of the past two seasons, when the Hawks have actually finished second and fourth in the East. This time, Atlanta may have to beat its projection to make the playoffs.
10.Miami Heat Projected wins: 38.3
Even with Chris Bosh in the lineup, the Heat may have a tough time making the playoffs after losing Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade. Without Bosh, Miami's projection drops to 35.2 wins and 12th in the East.
11.Chicago Bulls Projected wins:37.8
RPM doesn't view adding Wade (minus-1.3) and Rajon Rondo (minus-1.4) as upgrades for Chicago, and that's before even taking the fit issues they create into account.
12.Orlando Magic Projected wins: 36.2
The Magic spent big on free agents D.J. Augustin (minus-1.6) and Jeff Green (minus-2.1), neither of whom RPM sees helping Orlando much on the court this season.
13.New York Knicks Projected wins: 34.7
The Knicks would certainly be disappointed if they improved just three wins after spending freely this summer, but RPM rates Derrick Rose (minus-2.3) as a replacement-level contributor at this point and is skeptical of New York's weak bench.
14.Brooklyn Nets Projected wins: 28.8
A full season from second-year wing Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (plus-1.2), along with improved play at point guard with Jeremy Lin (minus-0.3), should make the Nets a bit more competitive this season.
15.Philadelphia 76ers Projected wins: 24.5
Even with conservative projections for rookies Ben Simmons (minus-1.9) and Joel Embiid (minus-1.4), the Sixers figure to take a massive step forward this season despite still being projected for the East's worst record.
http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/17375776/projected-records-win-totals-standings-every-nba-team-2016-17-season
Which teams might jump from the lottery to the playoffs, and who might they replace?
To help answer these questions, here's an early look at 2016-17 NBA projections using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).
RPM was developed by Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi to estimate a player's on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors. When used along with playing time projections, it's proved to be a very accurate predictive tool overall.
Last season, these projections correctly forecast that the Portland Trail Blazers would be more competitive than expected, the Boston Celtics would maintain their second-half success from the year before and the Milwaukee Bucks would fall out of the playoffs. (They also missed on other teams, including the Toronto Raptors emerging as a top threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference and the Houston Rockets limping along near .500.) Two years ago, RPM foresaw the rise of the Golden State Warriors.
Like last season, I've put together projected playing time based on a formula that estimates games missed based on the number missed over the past three seasons (adjusted for any offseason injuries/suspensions) and my own guesses at how rotations will shake out.
Most veteran players are rated using the multiyear, predictive version of RPM, adjusted for the typical aging curve. Newcomers to the league and players who played too little for an RPM rating are rated using their projected offensive and defensive rating from my SCHOENE projection system, which incorporates translated performance in the NCAA and professional leagues besides the NBA.
Let's take a look at the results.
Western Conference
1.Golden State Warriors Projected wins: 66.8
Within the context of the conservative nature of win projections, which tend to be regressed heavily to the mean, a 67-win projection is remarkable. The Warriors' projection is two wins higher than the next best in the seven years I've gone back to do projections using this method: 64.9 for the 2010-11 Miami Heat, who actually won just 58 games because of the time it took their version of the Big Three to build chemistry on the court.
2.San Antonio Spurs Projected wins: 54.5
It's a huge step downward to second place in the West. With Tim Duncan's retirement and the aging of other core players, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to stay with Golden State in the regular season as they did last season. But RPM still has them comfortably second in the West.
3.Utah Jazz Projected wins: 47.6
This might seem like a crazy leap for a team that didn't make the playoffs last year, but remember: The Jazz actually had the fifth-best point differential in the West (plus-1.8 PPG). Ordinarily, that would translate into 46 wins, and that was despite injuries (including Dante Exum missing the entire season) and before Utah loaded up with veterans this offseason. The Jazz should be considered the favorites to win the Northwest Division.
4.L.A. Clippers Projected wins: 46.3
Given the Clippers won 53 games last year without Blake Griffin for much of the season, a seven-win drop would be a surprise. But RPM sees several key players on the wrong side of the aging curve.
5.Houston Rockets Projected wins: 45.8
RPM projects the Rockets to be a top-five offense next year, but they'll still struggle to reach 45 wins if their defense is worse than an optimistic projection of 16th in the league.
6.Oklahoma City Thunder Projected wins: 45.6
Even without Durant, RPM forecasts the Thunder in the mix for home-court advantage in the West thanks to star point guard Russell Westbrook and a deep cast of young role players.
7.Portland Trail Blazers Projected wins: 44.5
After reaching the second round of the playoffs and adding Festus Ezeli and Evan Turner this offseason, the Blazers hope to take the next step in their development. RPM sees them as about the same team as 2015-16, when they won 44 games but finished fifth in a weaker West.
8.Denver Nuggets Projected wins: 40.4
Quietly, the Nuggets have assembled an intriguing group of young talent (led by RPM favorite Nikola Jokic, projected for plus-5.0 points per 100 possessions) with a few veterans in tow. Even with Danilo Gallinari projected for just 50 games, internal development could be enough to push Denver into surprising playoff contention.
9.Memphis Grizzlies Projected wins: 39.4
Yes, the Grizzlies strengthened their starting lineup by signing Chandler Parsons, but their bench is incredibly thin and several starters (including Parsons) are major injury risks. Gulp.
10.Sacramento Kings Projected wins: 37.7
The Kings have one of the biggest discrepancies of any team between their projection in ESPN's summer forecast (30 wins, 13th in the West) and by RPM, which sees Sacramento deep in average talent around DeMarcus Cousins.
11.Minnesota Timberwolves Projected wins: 37.1
Remember, RPM projections don't factor in coaching, and the arrival of Tom Thibodeau makes the Timberwolves overwhelmingly likely to outperform their projected ranking of 27th in defensive rating.
12.New Orleans Pelicans Projected wins: 37.0
New Orleans is deeper after shopping for midtier free agents this summer, but RPM projects just three players on the roster to be better than league average: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and newcomer Solomon Hill.
13.Dallas Mavericks Projected wins: 34.3
Might this be the year that coach Rick Carlisle, veteran big man Dirk Nowitzki and a cast of newcomers can't get the Mavericks to the playoffs? RPM says yes, since swapping Parsons (plus-1.3) for Harrison Barnes (minus-0.7) grades as a major downgrade.
14.Phoenix Suns Projected wins: 29.2
The Suns figure to be a bit more competitive with the return of RPM favorite Eric Bledsoe (plus-2.2) but are still too young to compete in the West.
15.L.A. Lakers Projected wins: 24.3
Despite their offseason additions of No. 2 pick Brandon Ingram and veterans Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov, RPM has the Lakers with the league's fewest projected wins.
Eastern Conference
1.Cleveland Cavaliers Projected wins: 52.1
While the Cavaliers are still solidly tops in the East, their projection is down from last year's 57 wins because RPM takes a dim view of Kyrie Irving's defense and considers Matthew Dellavedova (plus-1.2 projection) a considerable loss as Irving's backup. Note that this projection assumes J.R. Smith ultimately re-signs in Cleveland.
2.Boston Celtics Projected wins: 49.8
Last year, RPM nailed the Celtics' 48-win finish, though the Raptors jumped ahead of Boston to take second in the East. Now, RPM sees the Celtics taking a modest step forward with the addition of Al Horford.
3.Toronto Raptors Projected wins: 48.8
After getting career years from guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, the Raptors are likely to regress to the pack this year, but fans can take solace in Toronto having outperformed its RPM projection each of the past three seasons.
4.Detroit Pistons Projected wins: 47.5
While most of the East's middle class took a step backward this offseason, the Pistons should improve by virtue of upgrading at backup point guard and center, and RPM sees them as the third team in a tier with Boston and Toronto.
5.Washington Wizards Projected wins: 41.4
There's a big gap between the top four in the East and a pack of teams projected fifth through about 11th. The Wizards lead that group after going 18-13 after last year's All-Star break.
6.Charlotte Hornets Projected wins: 41.0
Though the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (plus-2.0) should be a boost, RPM doesn't like the Hornets' new backup backcourt of Ramon Sessions (minus-2.4) and Marco Belinelli (minus-3.7).
7.Milwaukee Bucks Projected wins: 40.9
The Bucks have oscillated between wildly under- and overperforming projections. If that trend holds, this should be the year for exceeding expectations, and RPM views both Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic (minus-0.6) as upgrades.
8.Indiana Pacers Projected wins: 38.9
By virtue of having one of the East's top players in Paul George and a promising youngster in Myles Turner, the Pacers are getting contender buzz in the East. RPM is not so optimistic, viewing the swap of George Hill (plus-0.8) for Jeff Teague (minus-0.6) as a downgrade.
9.Atlanta Hawks Projected wins: 38.6
RPM has had a tough time forecasting the Hawks, pegging Atlanta for near-.500 records each of the past two seasons, when the Hawks have actually finished second and fourth in the East. This time, Atlanta may have to beat its projection to make the playoffs.
10.Miami Heat Projected wins: 38.3
Even with Chris Bosh in the lineup, the Heat may have a tough time making the playoffs after losing Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade. Without Bosh, Miami's projection drops to 35.2 wins and 12th in the East.
11.Chicago Bulls Projected wins:37.8
RPM doesn't view adding Wade (minus-1.3) and Rajon Rondo (minus-1.4) as upgrades for Chicago, and that's before even taking the fit issues they create into account.
12.Orlando Magic Projected wins: 36.2
The Magic spent big on free agents D.J. Augustin (minus-1.6) and Jeff Green (minus-2.1), neither of whom RPM sees helping Orlando much on the court this season.
13.New York Knicks Projected wins: 34.7
The Knicks would certainly be disappointed if they improved just three wins after spending freely this summer, but RPM rates Derrick Rose (minus-2.3) as a replacement-level contributor at this point and is skeptical of New York's weak bench.
14.Brooklyn Nets Projected wins: 28.8
A full season from second-year wing Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (plus-1.2), along with improved play at point guard with Jeremy Lin (minus-0.3), should make the Nets a bit more competitive this season.
15.Philadelphia 76ers Projected wins: 24.5
Even with conservative projections for rookies Ben Simmons (minus-1.9) and Joel Embiid (minus-1.4), the Sixers figure to take a massive step forward this season despite still being projected for the East's worst record.
http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/17375776/projected-records-win-totals-standings-every-nba-team-2016-17-season