View Full Version : Nate aluminum has trump odds of victory st 54% if election were today
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 10:27 AM
And over 48% overall. Y'all still not believers? Emperor trump will drag you all kicking and screaming to prosperity and strength, for he cares about you all even those who doubted him.
baseline bum
09-26-2016, 10:31 AM
LOL anyone believing in that fat piece of shit.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 10:40 AM
I said that when he has trumps odds at 3% a few weeks ago but his fat ass got the red suppository because he's singing a different tune
Trump still needs either CO (now at 42.7%) or NH (42.3%) to win electoral college and he'd have to win all the swing states he's over 50% in: FL (60.4%), NC (63.9%), OH (65.5%), NV (58.8%) - polls-only forecast - fivethirtyeight.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 11:23 AM
Co has swung red the last week or two, also he was up in a nm poll but we need more data. Va and pa are within 2-3 points and I'm not giving up on white working class Michigan. We only need ONE of these or any other slightly Clinton leaning state. She's got a lot of ground to protect with little room for error. CNN reporting she's given up on Ohio and Nc.
And of course, IA (71.9%), MI (37.1%) and PA (36.1%) are also in play.
Fabbs
09-26-2016, 11:26 AM
Romney was ahead of Barry after the 1st debate.
49% to 43%.
Lot of game left.
Co has swung red the last week or two, also he was up in a nm poll but we need more data. Va and pa are within 2-3 points and I'm not giving up on white working class Michigan. We only need ONE of these or any other slightly Clinton leaning state. She's got a lot of ground to protect with little room for error. CNN reporting she's given up on Ohio and Nc.
Don't agree - it's still Trump with one path and little room for error - it's only now POSSIBLE.
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 11:41 AM
And over 48% overall. Y'all still not believers? Emperor trump will drag you all kicking and screaming to prosperity and strength, for he cares about you all even those who doubted him.
I love the cherry picking. With the two actual projections he still has are ~3% in favor of HRC.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 11:43 AM
Don't agree - it's still Trump with one path and little room for error - it's only now POSSIBLE.
If Hillary is pulling out of the states where trump was once thought vulnerable and trump is within 5% in about a dozen states that are traditionally blue leaning, and only has to hold what he's got plus flip one of those dozen I'd say I have to disagree. She has no margin for error, and unless you think trump is vulnerable in ga or az then he's on the offensive
baseline bum
09-26-2016, 11:50 AM
I said that when he has trumps odds at 3% a few weeks ago but his fat ass got the red suppository because he's singing a different tune
You were scoffing believing in fat piece of shit Trump a few weeks ago?
Co has swung red the last week or two, also he was up in a nm poll but we need more data. Va and pa are within 2-3 points and I'm not giving up on white working class Michigan. We only need ONE of these or any other slightly Clinton leaning state. She's got a lot of ground to protect with little room for error. CNN reporting she's given up on Ohio and Nc.
Why are you so desperate? lol
Colorado its still very much in Clinton's favor.
No Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. That is all and that is it.
NC is also in play. Very close battle there.
After tonight we will know for sure who will win.
baseline bum
09-26-2016, 11:57 AM
After tonight we will know for sure who will win.
No we won't. Both of these candidates are more than capable of blowing any lead this election.
CosmicCowboy
09-26-2016, 11:57 AM
It's hilarious how people can draw such radically different conclusions from the same polls. The only poll that really counts is the one on November 8.
Personally I think Clinton will win easily. If it still looks "close" by the election I expect the protest votes for Johnson and Stein to switch at the last minute with most going to Clinton.
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 11:59 AM
It's hilarious how people can draw such radically different conclusions from the same polls. The only poll that really counts is the one on November 8.
Personally I think Clinton will win easily. If it still looks "close" by the election I expect the protest votes for Johnson and Stein to switch at the last minute with most going to Clinton.
Silver doesn't poll but instead aggregates and adjusts for bias and trends. He has nailed several elections now.
boutons_deux
09-26-2016, 12:00 PM
The scariest thing about 10Ms of American dumbfucks is that they actually decide whom to vote based on the silliness, the show biz of fucking debates, as if MONTHS and MONTHS of campaigning left them uninformed. Truly fucking amazing.
Fabbs
09-26-2016, 12:01 PM
It's hilarious how people can draw such radically different conclusions from the same polls. The only poll that really counts is the one on November 8.
Personally I think Clinton will win easily. If it still looks "close" by the election I expect the protest votes for Johnson and Stein to switch at the last minute with most going to Clinton.
and even tho younger voters cannot stand Hillary, will they listen to their choice guy Bernie and vote for her as he admonishes?
CosmicCowboy
09-26-2016, 12:07 PM
Silver doesn't poll but instead aggregates and adjusts for bias and trends. He has nailed several elections now.
Silver is more than a neutral aggregator. He makes personal predictions as well and definitely blew the Republican Primary.
baseline bum
09-26-2016, 12:08 PM
Personally I think Clinton will win easily. If it still looks "close" by the election I expect the protest votes for Johnson and Stein to switch at the last minute with most going to Clinton.
I don't see it. I'll venture that she'll squeak out a close victory due to low voter turnout, but it could easily go the other way.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 12:09 PM
Why are you so desperate? lol
Colorado its still very much in Clinton's favor.
No Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. That is all and that is it.
NC is also in play. Very close battle there.
After tonight we will know for sure who will win.
You saying it's out of the question doesn't make it so. The polls disagree. Not the ones from 3 weeks ago those don't matter I'm talking about today. I could care less about your random opinion. Let's talk about data and logical reasoning
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 12:09 PM
Silver is more than a neutral aggregator. He makes personal predictions as well and definitely blew the Republican Primary.
I get that nuance is tough for you but I pay attention to his statistical projections and not unsubstantiated assertions from you about quips he has made at various times.
hater
09-26-2016, 12:12 PM
Ppl actually believe Shillary will be president? :lmao
CosmicCowboy
09-26-2016, 12:15 PM
I get that nuance is tough for you but I pay attention to his statistical projections and not unsubstantiated assertions from you about quips he has made at various times.
:lmao
what an ignorant shithead.
Would you believe Nate Silver?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
CosmicCowboy
09-26-2016, 12:16 PM
Ppl actually believe Shillary will be president? :lmao
Yep. Sad but true.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 12:16 PM
And if nc is so close, why does Nate disagree and why are reports saying that Hillary has pulled out of the state? Nov 8 just may come as a shock to you dude you're letting your emotions get in the way of reasoning.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 12:16 PM
Yep. Sad but true.
Stop with the defeatism
And if nc is so close, why does Nate disagree and why are reports saying that Hillary has pulled out of the state? Nov 8 just may come as a shock to you dude you're letting your emotions get in the way of reasoning.
Where do you hear that she's pulled out of NC? I heard she's pulled out of OH - that she hasn't been there since Labor Day - but not NC and I don't think VA is in play.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 12:21 PM
Per Clinton news network trump has moved within 1 in pa
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/26/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-colorado-pennsylvania-polls/index.html
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 12:22 PM
Where do you hear that she's pulled out of NC? I heard she's pulled out of OH - that she hasn't been there since Labor Day - but not NC and I don't think VA is in play.
Va has become razor thin in recent days. Apparent Clinton thought she had it locked up and never developed a proper ground game there
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 12:25 PM
:lmao
what an ignorant shithead.
Would you believe Nate Silver?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/
You should take notes on how to admit your mistakes gracefully. He talks about how he got away from his projecting system and admits his mistake.
Reread my point about projections and try again.
Va has become razor thin in recent days. Apparent Clinton thought she had it locked up and never developed a proper ground game there
LOL - like Trump has ground game anywhere.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 12:34 PM
It's first and goal dude, our pecker is on the 1 yard line about to put it in your pussy. Get fucked
CosmicCowboy
09-26-2016, 12:59 PM
You should take notes on how to admit your mistakes gracefully. He talks about how he got away from his projecting system and admits his mistake.
Reread my point about projections and try again.
You are a real piece of work.
You claim Nate is just a neutral aggregator of others polls.
I proved you completely wrong in Nate Silvers own words.
You try to twist that into me being the one that made the mistake?
:lmao
what a dumbass.
You saying it's out of the question doesn't make it so. The polls disagree. Not the ones from 3 weeks ago those don't matter I'm talking about today. I could care less about your random opinion. Let's talk about data and logical reasoning
Which polls disagree?
Go on, tell me how one poll changes this race?
What are the averages when you add all the polls together?
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:24 PM
You are a real piece of work.
You claim Nate is just a neutral aggregator of others polls.
I proved you completely wrong in Nate Silvers own words.
You try to twist that into me being the one that made the mistake?
:lmao
what a dumbass.
I never said he was 'just' anything. I said he doesn't poll -he doesn't- and instead aggregates and adjusts for bias in his projections.
You post something where he admits a mistake getting away from projections and ignore that I specifically say I ignore the quips and only pay attention to the projections. Your a dumbfuck with poor reading and critical thinking skills.
The only dumbass is you who came whining to me in PMs about how you wanted to make things more civil. I guess it is open season on your prediliction towards pedophilia then, fattie.
Va has become razor thin in recent days. Apparent Clinton thought she had it locked up and never developed a proper ground game there
Yes, this is a razor thin contest..
http://i66.tinypic.com/2z3ul9l.jpg
6 point on average. :lmao razor thin
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 01:27 PM
Which polls disagree?
Go on, tell me how one poll changes this race?
What are the averages when you add all the polls together?
Averages that include old data are irrelevant, at this stage in the game until November I am only looking at the latest polls because things can change fast. I posted the cnn link where trump has pulled to within a couple points in pa. Va may still be out of reach but she needs it more than we do
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:29 PM
Averages that include old data are irrelevant, at this stage in the game until November I am only looking at the latest polls because things can change fast. I posted the cnn link where trump has pulled to within a couple points in pa. Va may still be out of reach but she needs it more than we do
Not when they are different polls from the same time period they aren't. You're cherry picking in desperation.
Averages that include old data are irrelevant, at this stage in the game until November I am only looking at the latest polls because things can change fast. I posted the cnn link where trump has pulled to within a couple points in pa. Va may still be out of reach but she needs it more than we do
?
It doesn't matter that he gets close in PA if he cant actually pull ahead and change the averages which favor Hillary in a massive way.
CosmicCowboy
09-26-2016, 01:30 PM
Silver is more than a neutral aggregator. He makes personal predictions as well and definitely blew the Republican Primary.
I get that nuance is tough for you but I pay attention to his statistical projections and not unsubstantiated assertions from you about quips he has made at various times.
In his own words it was not an unsubstantiated assertion about his "quips"
just admit you were wrong and move on.
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 01:31 PM
Trump winning in latest CO polls -- I don't think VA is in play and PA will most likely be a narrow win for HRC, but if Trump wins the Romney states + CO, NV, FL, IA, OH = he wins
Gary Johnson Trump's big hero in CO and I know a lot of potheads that think Trump would be a cool smoke buddy and HRC is a "lying bitch". No joke.
boutons_deux
09-26-2016, 01:32 PM
Trash loses, dramatically, these demograhic groups
women (by even more than the usual Repug loses them)
blacks
Latinos
youth
LGBT
adult whites with college education (would be first time for a Repug candidate)
So, demographically, how does Trash win?
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:34 PM
In his own words it was not an unsubstantiated assertion about his "quips"
just admit you were wrong and move on.
Desperate to win a point that is irrelevant to the bigger picture? At that point you had not substantiated it. Acting like you accomplished something by doing what you should have done in the first place is pathetic, fattie.
What difference does it make? I still don't care about the quips and only about the projections.
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 01:34 PM
Trash loses, dramatically, these demograhic groups
women (by even more than the usual Repug loses them)
blacks
Latinos
youth
LGBT
adult whites with college education (would be first time for a Repug candidate)
So, demographically, how does Trash win?
Trump does far, far better with the youth vote than any other GOP candidate in a long time. And most millennials hate HRC and those that liked Bernie are much more likely to not vote or vote for Johnson or Stein than HRC. (And some votes for Trump out of the Bernie pool!)
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:36 PM
Trump winning in latest CO polls -- I don't think VA is in play and PA will most likely be a narrow win for HRC, but if Trump wins the Romney states + CO, NV, FL, IA, OH = he wins
Gary Johnson Trump's big hero in CO and I know a lot of potheads that think Trump would be a cool smoke buddy and HRC is a "lying bitch". No joke.
He was up by 1 in the CNN poll and down by 1 in the CBS poll over the last two days in Colorado. That is a statistical dead heat. You are ignoring the obvious angst of the Trump campaign over the debate where he is already calling out the moderator and whinging in the leadup.
CosmicCowboy
09-26-2016, 01:36 PM
Desperate to win a point that is irrelevant to the bigger picture? At that point you had not substantiated it. Acting like you accomplished something by doing what you should have done in the first place is pathetic, fattie.
What difference does it make? I still don't care about the quips and only about the projections.
:lmao
Sure took a lot of words to say you were wrong...:lol
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:38 PM
:lmao
Sure took a lot of words to say you were wrong...:lol
You're pretty stupid if you think I said I was wrong. Look up temporal order and try again.
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:39 PM
Trump does far, far better with the youth vote than any other GOP candidate in a long time. And most millennials hate HRC and those that liked Bernie are much more likely to not vote or vote for Johnson or Stein than HRC. (And some votes for Trump out of the Bernie pool!)
Most huh?
http://www.people-press.org/files/2016/07/7-7-2016-2-30-10-PM-1.png
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 01:39 PM
He was up by 1 in the CNN poll and down by 1 in the CBS poll over the last two days in Colorado. That is a statistical dead heat. You are ignoring the obvious angst of the Trump campaign over the debate where he is already calling out the moderator and whinging in the leadup.
Even according to the national average, which includes older polls as well... Trump is 0.2 points behind.
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 01:40 PM
Most huh?
Key note: Survey conducted June, 2016.
Also note "Hispanics/Latinos are of any race"... probably lumped the Hispanics in with the whites which obviously blues the poll numbers.
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:41 PM
Key note: Survey conducted June, 2016.
As opposed to your big ball of nothing.
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:42 PM
Even according to the national average, which includes older polls as well... Trump is 0.2 points behind.
Sorry but I don't trust your characterizations in the least. Substantiate or be disregarded.
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 01:43 PM
Sorry but I don't trust your characterizations in the least. Substantiate or be disregarded.
RealClearPolitics.com 4-way race
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:45 PM
RealClearPolitics.com 4-way race
That isn't a link. What is with conservatives expecting others to do their work for them?
Even if what you claim bears out there is still the statistical uncertainty. That close is a dead heat.
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:46 PM
RCP Average 9/15 - 9/25 -- -- 46.2 44.0 Clinton +2.2
Bloomberg 9/21 - 9/24 1002 LV 3.1 46 46 Tie
Quinnipiac 9/22 - 9/25 1115 LV 2.9 47 46 Clinton +1
Monmouth 9/22 - 9/25 729 LV 3.6 49 46 Clinton +3
LA Times/USC Tracking 9/19 - 9/25 2726 LV 4.5 42 46 Trump +4
ABC News/Wash Post 9/19 - 9/22 651 LV 4.5 49 47 Clinton +2
Economist/YouGov 9/22 - 9/24 948 RV 3.8 48 44 Clinton +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/16 - 9/19 922 LV 3.2 48 41 Clinton +7
McClatchy/Marist 9/15 - 9/20 758 LV 3.6 48 41 Clinton +7
Reuters/Ipsos 9/15 - 9/19 1111 LV 3.4 39 39 Tie
It's all within the last 2 weeks. And I was right to not trust your estimation. The average is 2.2 not .2.
Even according to the national average, which includes older polls as well... Trump is 0.2 points behind.
Pulling all ads from Colorado was a mistake. She pulls out, he goes in and the results are obvious.
You need to have a presence even if you're up big. Hillary is running an awful campaign. Her campaign decided not to run ads there anymore beacause she was up 8-10 points and 6 points on average.
At the end of the day though, she can reverse that with a good debate and getting ads on air again.
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 01:47 PM
That isn't a link. What is with conservatives expecting others to do their work for them?
Even if what you claim bears out there is still the statistical uncertainty. That close is a dead heat.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html
0.2 +/- obviously is a dead heat, but the statement "CO isn't a swing state" is obviously incorrect here.
Now, the Trump supporters in Illinois that want to try to say Illinois, or Oregon, or Massachusetts is a swing state... that's too damn far-fetched. Just like the Democrats with GA and AZ.
CosmicCowboy
09-26-2016, 01:48 PM
You're pretty stupid if you think I said I was wrong. Look up temporal order and try again.
:lmao
The Fuzzy Crab Walk.
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:50 PM
:lmao
The Fuzzy Crab Walk.
What part of "it was not substantiated at that time" was hard to understand? Still acting like you accomplished something which should have been done in the first place I see. Still sad for a fat old man.
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 01:50 PM
Pulling all ads from Colorado was a mistake. She pulls out, he goes in and the results are obvious.
You need to have a presence even if you're up big. Hillary is running an awful campaign. Her campaign decided not to run ads there anymore beacause she was up 8-10 points and 6 points on average.
At the end of the day though, she can reverse that with a good debate and getting ads on air again.
Whoever wins 2/3 debates will win enough swing states to win the election (or more).
baseline bum
09-26-2016, 01:53 PM
Trash loses, dramatically, these demograhic groups
women (by even more than the usual Repug loses them)
blacks
Latinos
youth
LGBT
adult whites with college education (would be first time for a Repug candidate)
So, demographically, how does Trash win?
By getting the white nationalist vote and the Republican vote and having low turnout from the other demographics.
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 01:55 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5974.html
0.2 +/- obviously is a dead heat, but the statement "CO isn't a swing state" is obviously incorrect here.
Now, the Trump supporters in Illinois that want to try to say Illinois, or Oregon, or Massachusetts is a swing state... that's too damn far-fetched. Just like the Democrats with GA and AZ.
You said according to national averages.
Here is 538 after they adjust for bias:
http://oi64.tinypic.com/2d6uow8.jpg
Whoever wins 2/3 debates will win enough swing states to win the election (or more).
I think this is the only important debate.
The people who will decide this (Indepedents+undecideds) election will call it in tonight after seeing them both head to head.
I find it hard to believe that you dont know who you're going to vote for 3 weeks from now. The next debate is like mid october. Who waits till that late to decide?
baseline bum
09-26-2016, 01:58 PM
I think this is the only important debate.
The people who will decide this (Indepedents+undecideds) election will call it in tonight after seeing them both head to head.
I find it hard to believe that you dont know who you're going to vote for 3 weeks from now. The next debate is like mid october. Who waits till that late to decide?
Independents and undecideds are usually pretty Republican leaning. They're often the people who say hurr durr both parties suck and then turn out to be among the most loyal Republican voters. Like WC.
Independents and undecideds are usually pretty Republican leaning. They're often the people who say hurr durr both parties suck and then turn out to be among the most loyal Republican voters. Like WC.
In this case though, its the millenials.
That's why the race is so close. Gary Johnson the gaffe machine is bleeding her dry in that category.
florige
09-26-2016, 02:04 PM
It's hilarious how people can draw such radically different conclusions from the same polls. The only poll that really counts is the one on November 8.
Personally I think Clinton will win easily. If it still looks "close" by the election I expect the protest votes for Johnson and Stein to switch at the last minute with most going to Clinton.
Not so sure about that. Hillary could have a huge problem with turnout. Obama was able to get young people out in droves. Not so sure about Hillary.
CosmicCowboy
09-26-2016, 02:06 PM
What part of "it was not substantiated at that time" was hard to understand? Still acting like you accomplished something which should have been done in the first place I see. Still sad for a fat old man.
:lmao
It's MY fault you were talking out your ass because I didn't provide a link before you did it? :lmao
baseline bum
09-26-2016, 02:08 PM
I find it hard to believe that you dont know who you're going to vote for 3 weeks from now. The next debate is like mid october. Who waits till that late to decide?
I don't think it's about who they'd support. I think lots of people won't know whether they're voting until election day.
CosmicCowboy
09-26-2016, 02:09 PM
Not so sure about that. Hillary could have a huge problem with turnout. Obama was able to get young people out in droves. Not so sure about Hillary.
Hillary will flood the airwaves with a billion dollars of negative ads the weeks right before the election and make it about stopping trump and not why we should vote for her.
I'm glad I'll be in Costa Rica fishing during the bulk of it.
boutons_deux
09-26-2016, 02:11 PM
Hillary will flood the airwaves with a billion dollars of negative ads the weeks right before the election and make it about stopping trump and not why we should vote for her.
I'm glad I'll be in Costa Rica fishing during the bulk of it.
Hillary has been talking lots of policies, which are why people are voting for her, apart from identity politics (women voting for women). and of course, Ms are voting Hillary to vote against Trash.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 02:14 PM
Hillary will flood the airwaves with a billion dollars of negative ads the weeks right before the election and make it about stopping trump and not why we should vote for her.
I'm glad I'll be in Costa Rica fishing during the bulk of it.hope you're voting early, don't let a bunch of forum liberals influence you towards apathy. This absolutely matters, if for nothing else but 2nd amendment and Supreme Court. You want a liberal Supreme Court? How about a 65% estate tax on your children if you die?
FuzzyLumpkins
09-26-2016, 02:16 PM
:lmao
It's MY fault you were talking out your ass because I didn't provide a link before you did it? :lmao
Typical bluster from you that you pretend you get presumption, fattie. Do you have a point beyond your typical machismo stupidity?
florige
09-26-2016, 02:17 PM
Pulling all ads from Colorado was a mistake. She pulls out, he goes in and the results are obvious.
You need to have a presence even if you're up big. Hillary is running an awful campaign. Her campaign decided not to run ads there anymore beacause she was up 8-10 points and 6 points on average.
At the end of the day though, she can reverse that with a good debate and getting ads on air again.
I agree. I really have no idea what she's doing. Why would her campaign pull out of CO so early almost two months before the election? Obama had this state plastered with signs and bumper stickers this time in 08 and 2012. I have yet to see a SINGLE Hillary sign anywhere. I think I have seen one bumper sticker. And MD is a heavily democratic state that is about a blue a state you can get. I think Hillary is making the same mistake she made with Obama 8 years ago and that is underestimating her opponent. I think one of the reasons Obama came out of nowhere and over came her was the nasty tone that she presented while debating him. I even started to not like her. She is in critical territory right now. I think they have Trump studying Obama's debate sessions with her. She has time to recover, but she had better step her game up.
Averages that include old data are irrelevant, at this stage in the game until November I am only looking at the latest polls because things can change fast.
Batch of new polls released just now so let's talk about new data then. :lol
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_st ein-5952.html)
NBC News/SM (http://www.nbcnews.com/)
Clinton 45, Trump 40, Johnson 10, Stein 3 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_st ein-5952.html)
Clinton +5
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html)
NBC News/SM (http://www.nbcnews.com/)
Clinton 51, Trump 44 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html)
Clinton +7
Florida: Trump vs. Clinton (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html)
FL Chamber* (http://www.flchamber.com/new-florida-chamber-of-commerce-statewide-poll-shows-presidential-race-too-close-to-call-in-florida/)
Clinton 45, Trump 42 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html)
Clinton +3
Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5981.html)
Loras (http://myweb.loras.edu/Loras/PDF/POLLStatewideIASurveySept26-2016.pdf)
Trump 38, Clinton 38, Johnson 9, Stein 1 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5981.html)
Tie
Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton-5597.html)
Loras (http://myweb.loras.edu/Loras/PDF/POLLStatewideIASurveySept26-2016.pdf)
Trump 42, Clinton 42 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_trump_vs_clinton-5597.html)
Tie
General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_st ein-5952.html)
Monmouth (http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_092616/)
Clinton 46, Trump 42, Johnson 8, Stein 2 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_st ein-5952.html)
Clinton +4
North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html)
High Point (http://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2016/09/47memoA.pdf)
Trump 42, Clinton 43, Johnson 10 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html)
Clinton +1
:lol
baseline bum
09-26-2016, 02:22 PM
hope you're voting early, don't let a bunch of forum liberals influence you towards apathy. This absolutely matters, if for nothing else but 2nd amendment and Supreme Court. You want a liberal Supreme Court? How about a 65% estate tax on your children if you die?
He's a Texas resident, his vote in a general election doesn't mean shit :lol
Only the primary matters in Texas.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 02:23 PM
You're cherry picking polls though, look at them all and there is no denying who has the momentum. Why'd you take out the Bloomberg poll and others showing trump ahead? Keep in mind these are liberal outlets putting this stuff out.
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 02:31 PM
I think this is the only important debate.
The people who will decide this (Indepedents+undecideds) election will call it in tonight after seeing them both head to head.
I find it hard to believe that you dont know who you're going to vote for 3 weeks from now. The next debate is like mid october. Who waits till that late to decide?
nah -- Kerry beat Bush big time in the first debate, Romney beat Barry big time in the first debate -- you saw how those two went -- historically, the first debate is actually the most expendable.
You're cherry picking polls though, look at them all and there is no denying who has the momentum. Why'd you take out the Bloomberg poll and others showing trump ahead? Keep in mind these are liberal outlets putting this stuff out.
I'm not cherry picking polls. I'm picking the polls that have been released just now. The CNN and Bloomberg polls were released early this morning.
nah -- Kerry beat Bush big time in the first debate, Romney beat Barry big time in the first debate -- you saw how those two went -- historically, the first debate is actually the most expendable.
This is not a typical election or debate. When has a presidential debate had this much hype? A lot is riding on this.
80-100 people will watch. That's going up against an NFL game. That says a lot.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 02:34 PM
I'm not cherry picking polls. I'm picking the polls that have been released just now. The CNN and Bloomberg polls were released early this morning.
Which is current, stop being a sarcastic dunce
Which is current, stop being a sarcastic dunce
Then why are you crying about cherry picking? :lol
New polls are new polls. Realclear hasn't even updated their overall averages. Expect Florida to be at tie. With the new Florida poll which has her up 3 and Trump leading the state by 0.2 that will now be erase to just a tie if not Hillary leaning.
SnakeBoy
09-26-2016, 02:42 PM
This is not a typical election or debate.
One thing I can agree with you on and also the reason I think it's stupid to focus so much on polls. As long as the average of polls show it as a somewhat of a close race then it's all about turnout and we won't know that until Nov 8th.
I've always thought this election was Hillary's to lose. I didn't think she would be so good at trying to lose it.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 02:42 PM
Florida is trumps ask your boy shillver
florige
09-26-2016, 02:46 PM
Hillary will flood the airwaves with a billion dollars of negative ads the weeks right before the election and make it about stopping trump and not why we should vote for her.
I'm glad I'll be in Costa Rica fishing during the bulk of it.
I think her biggest problem is she is relying too much on Obama's popularity. He can campaign and stump for her in all the states he won sure, but at the end of the day Hillary needs to be the one out there showcasing her face. It's only but so much he can do. From what I can see this time around the enthusiasm for Hillary just not there it was for Obama. I worried about that in the Primaries that Bernie would have probably been more of a slam dunk than Hillary.
Florida is trumps ask your boy shillver
A state with over 20% of hispanics? :lol
It's a question of if they turn out. They already heavily favored her as it is.
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 02:49 PM
Shillver gives trump favorable odds to win. "Hispanics" as a monolithic group don't exist, those are Cubans and they hate Mexicans
Florida is trumps ask your boy shillver
What did I tell your dumbass?
http://i64.tinypic.com/35jjqsh.jpg
:lmao :lmao :lmao
Axl Rose
09-26-2016, 03:33 PM
Ain't happening
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 03:34 PM
OP is right about the Cubans being different and more conservative and hating of communism/socialism/food stamps than Mexicans and most Central Americans. But they're also going to be pissed off about how Trump treated their idol Rubio.
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 03:35 PM
I think her biggest problem is she is relying too much on Obama's popularity. He can campaign and stump for her in all the states he won sure, but at the end of the day Hillary needs to be the one out there showcasing her face. It's only but so much he can do. From what I can see this time around the enthusiasm for Hillary just not there it was for Obama. I worried about that in the Primaries that Bernie would have probably been more of a slam dunk than Hillary.
Millennial voter turnout would have tripled records (at least) had Bernie won. Hell I'd consider voting for him because at least he's honest and apolitical.
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 03:37 PM
This is not a typical election or debate. When has a presidential debate had this much hype? A lot is riding on this.
80-100 people will watch. That's going up against an NFL game. That says a lot.
The majority of NFL watchers will be Trump, but I plan on going back and forth between the game and debate tonight.
boutons_deux
09-26-2016, 03:45 PM
OP is right about the Cubans being different and more conservative and hating of communism/socialism/food stamps than Mexicans and most Central Americans. But they're also going to be pissed off about how Trump treated their idol Rubio.
how many rightwingnut out-of-date-Castro-hating Cubans are there? vs 10Ms of Latinos/Hispanics trashed by Trash?
The huge number of younger Cubans are more Americanized and aren't a close-minded as their old parents.
UNT Eagles 2016
09-26-2016, 09:10 PM
how many rightwingnut out-of-date-Castro-hating Cubans are there? vs 10Ms of Latinos/Hispanics trashed by Trash?
The huge number of younger Cubans are more Americanized and aren't a close-minded as their old parents.
I think they're right wing for sure, but not necessarily pro-Trump... Trump called their hero "Little Marco" and other dirty things... Trump is a racist...
RandomGuy
09-27-2016, 12:05 PM
hope you're voting early, don't let a bunch of forum liberals influence you towards apathy. This absolutely matters, if for nothing else but 2nd amendment and Supreme Court. You want a liberal Supreme Court? How about a 65% estate tax on your children if you die?
Meh. The 2nd amendment isn't going anywhere.
If background checks are the "death" of the second amendment, I'll eat my hat. What a bunch of hype.
RandomGuy
09-27-2016, 12:09 PM
And over 48% overall. Y'all still not believers? Emperor trump will drag you all kicking and screaming to prosperity and strength, for he cares about you all even those who doubted him.
The laboratory for Trumps tax proposals is Kansas, and has pretty thoroughly debunked sharp tax cuts and trickle down economics as a serious policy.
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=248521
Further, for someone who says he knows about money, he spouted off some decidedly ignorant things about it.
You look at what China is doing for country in terms of making our product, they're devaluing their currency and there's nobody in our government to fight them.
In fact, over the past two years, Beijing has been selling off some of its roughly $4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves to prop up the value of its currency, the Renminbi or Yuan. This has contributed to a lower U.S. trade deficit with China. Beijing allowed the RMB to appreciate against the dollar for about a decade until 2014, leading the IMF to judge the RMB as fairly valued in May of last year. -- Anthony Kuhn, International Correspondent
NPR Staff
NPR
http://www.scpr.org/news/2016/09/26/65148/fact-check-npr-reviews-the-first-trump-vs-clinton/
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