boutons_deux
10-11-2016, 10:17 AM
The polls here tend to be a little all over the place.
The projections are the blended average from the above mentioned sources.
In Florida, Wisconsin and Colorado, the odds are from 62–95% that Clinton will take the states.
In Georgia and Arizona, it’s 52–99% Trump.
For Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Nevada, it’s a giant crapshoot.
But that doesn’t matter.
Clinton takes Florida, it’s over. She takes Ohio, it’s over.
Wisconsin and North Carolina… really, anything that gets 16 electoral votes.
Trump… he basically needs to take them all.
That’s.
Just.
Not.
Happening.
It’s like landing 00 in Roulette twice in a row while getting eaten by a shark.
And his luck at casinos wasn’t that good. :lol
This isn’t trying to get into the why. If you want the why, I strongly recommend Dante Chinni’s Politics Counts (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/tag/politics-counts/) column in the Wall Street Journal. He’s been tracking demographic shifts in the United States for more than a decade and its impact on the electorate via the American Communities Project (http://americancommunities.org/). Nor is this trying to get into the politics.
No, this is just the straight math. And after spending countless hours looking at the polls, following the projections, there’s just no point in the suspense. It’s like watching a Bruckheimer flick: it might look super scary, but that asteroid just ain’t hitting the planet. Cue Aerosmith. Thanks Bruce.
https://medium.com/@frisch/math-the-elections-over-can-we-please-move-on-20b2ad1b6088#.bdpshdtqp
The projections are the blended average from the above mentioned sources.
In Florida, Wisconsin and Colorado, the odds are from 62–95% that Clinton will take the states.
In Georgia and Arizona, it’s 52–99% Trump.
For Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa and Nevada, it’s a giant crapshoot.
But that doesn’t matter.
Clinton takes Florida, it’s over. She takes Ohio, it’s over.
Wisconsin and North Carolina… really, anything that gets 16 electoral votes.
Trump… he basically needs to take them all.
That’s.
Just.
Not.
Happening.
It’s like landing 00 in Roulette twice in a row while getting eaten by a shark.
And his luck at casinos wasn’t that good. :lol
This isn’t trying to get into the why. If you want the why, I strongly recommend Dante Chinni’s Politics Counts (http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/tag/politics-counts/) column in the Wall Street Journal. He’s been tracking demographic shifts in the United States for more than a decade and its impact on the electorate via the American Communities Project (http://americancommunities.org/). Nor is this trying to get into the politics.
No, this is just the straight math. And after spending countless hours looking at the polls, following the projections, there’s just no point in the suspense. It’s like watching a Bruckheimer flick: it might look super scary, but that asteroid just ain’t hitting the planet. Cue Aerosmith. Thanks Bruce.
https://medium.com/@frisch/math-the-elections-over-can-we-please-move-on-20b2ad1b6088#.bdpshdtqp