Senate Races

[boutons_deux]

Democratic Challenger Holds Eight-Point Lead Over Incumbent In WI Senate Poll
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/dem-challenger-holds-lead-wisconsin-senate?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tpm-news+%28TPMNews%29

[boutons_deux]

Rubio Holds Slim Two-Point Lead Over Challenger In Latest Florida Senate Poll

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/rubio-holds-slim-lead-fl-senate-poll?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+tpm-news+%28TPMNews%29

and "Little Marco" won't rule out Pres 2020 run. :lol


======================


"I'm going to serve six years in the United States Senate, God willing, and I'm looking forward to it," Rubio said, before he and Murphy exchanged attacks over who could do more to protect the Everglades.



The “God willing” evasion was duly noted and Rubio was pressed on the question.

Three more times he slipped that “God willing” into his answers, as if God is responsible for his own personal ambition to get the hell out of the Senate

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/18/1583955/-Marco-Rubio-is-trying-to-blame-God-for-his-plan-to-skip-out-on-the-Senate-after-four-years?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailykos%2Findex+%28Daily+Kos %29

God doesn't give a shit, Little Marco

[boutons_deux]

Seven races that could flip the Senate: Trump’s impending defeat may lead to a down-ballot massacreThese critical contests will decide the Senate: Who are the candidates — and how do they feel about Donald Trump?

http://www.salon.com/2016/10/19/seven-races-that-could-flip-the-senate-trumps-impending-defeat-may-lead-to-a-down-ballot-massacre/

[boutons_deux]

Silver's latest Senate prediction

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

[CosmicCowboy]

2018 republicans will take back any minor gains democrats make in the senate this year.

[CosmicCowboy]

2018 25 democrats up for reelection vs. 8 republicans and by then everyone will hate Hillary.

[Th'Pusher]

2018 republicans will take back any minor gains democrats make in the senate this year.

That gives them two years to appoint some young liberal judges.

[Splits]

That gives them two years to appoint some young liberal judges.

Yep. Hopefully Breyer and Kennedy retire in addition to Ginsburg.

[baseline bum]

Yep. Hopefully Breyer and Kennedy retire in addition to Ginsburg.

Hasn't Uncle Thomas been talking retirement?

[Splits]

Hasn't Uncle Thomas been talking retirement?

He's only 68. Hopefully he dies a horrible death, but I don't forsee him retiring when a D is in office

[CosmicCowboy]

That gives them two years to appoint some young liberal judges.

No doubt. That sucks. More for you young guys than me.

[Th'Pusher]

No doubt. That sucks. More for you young guys than me.

Why would liberal justices suck for young people?

[CosmicCowboy]

Meh. I'm pretty set financially for retirement and helping my kids. You guys are the ones that will suffer from the race to the bottom and mediocre nanny state substandard equality for all. When you punish success with exorbitant taxes you remove the incentive for risk.

[rmt]

Meh. I'm pretty set financially for retirement and helping my kids. You guys are the ones that will suffer from the race to the bottom and mediocre nanny state substandard equality for all. When you punish success with exorbitant taxes you remove the incentive for risk.

I think this is what the young don't realize. We, older people, are coasting toward retirement and what's left of SS and Medicare. We already have our homes, (in your case) business, investments - even Obamacare is rigged in our favor - 3x as opposed to the more realistic 5x a young person's cost. It's the young who won't have the opportunities we had - the available jobs because the economy is burdened with taxes, regulations, Obamacare (or, even worse, single payer), the crushing debt, and whatever social programs Hillary has in mind for you that you will be paying for - for all the people she'll let in to achieve her dream of "open borders" and "opportunity for every person in the hemisphere."

[pgardn]

Meh. I'm pretty set financially for retirement and helping my kids. You guys are the ones that will suffer from the race to the bottom and mediocre nanny state substandard equality for all. When you punish success with exorbitant taxes you remove the incentive for risk.

You mean like Donald's real estate write off's. Those incentives that younger people like myself make up for? So the US is like a bad bank nodding yes to horrible business ventures? This works both ways which peepslike to gloss over.

[pgardn]

Do you have any semblance of a thought of your own? Seriously, the morons on here pedo, your brother, breitbart wannabe, none of you have any ideas that are your own. You are so scared and brainwashed by these assholes that you are intellectually bankrupt.

If this is all you assholes can achieve, then for fuck sakes stop stealing oxygen.

So you teach civility and diplomacy...

[CosmicCowboy]

You mean like Donald's real estate write off's. Those incentives that younger people like myself make up for? So the US is like a bad bank nodding yes to horrible business ventures? This works both ways which peepslike to gloss over.

Well yeah. If you tax the fuck out of profits but don't allow loss write offs you massively decrease the incentive to invest which obviously effects jobs and the economy. The nasty "rich" don't make money by being stupid. They balance risk and reward and will simply move their investments somewhere else in the world where they can make money.

[rmt]

You mean like Donald's real estate write off's. Those incentives that younger people like myself make up for? So the US is like a bad bank nodding yes to horrible business ventures? This works both ways which peepslike to gloss over.

When one makes money on investments, one pays taxes on that money. When one loses money on that investment, would you please explain to me what you object with offsetting that loss against any POSSIBLE future investment gain? Remember you can't use it to offset, say, income from a job and that offset is spread out over many years.

pgardn, when I (and CC) started out with basically nothing, the rules and regulations (e.g. I never had insurance until I got my 1st full time job at 21) were not so punishing that I could not save - for a home, for retirement, for investments. Now, not only is there a lack of jobs, but whatever money you earn is taxed, doesn't earn much interest, forced to pay for health insurance/penalty, etc. This is going to continue on steroids when Hillary wins - more social programs = more taxes - no matter what the promises about taxing the rich (those who are paying for her $2 billion campaign?). Look at the promises from Obamacare which is shouldered by the middle class.

[pgardn]

Well yeah. If you tax the fuck out of profits but don't allow loss write offs you massively decrease the incentive to invest which obviously effects jobs and the economy. The nasty "rich" don't make money by being stupid. They balance risk and reward and will simply move their investments somewhere else in the world where they can make money.

And if they are really heavily involved like Donald, they may be deemed to big to fail. And he was.

[Warlord23]

Well yeah. If you tax the fuck out of profits but don't allow loss write offs you massively decrease the incentive to invest which obviously effects jobs and the economy. The nasty "rich" don't make money by being stupid. They balance risk and reward and will simply move their investments somewhere else in the world where they can make money.

This rationale is often quoted but unproven in the modern era. Back in the day, capital was finite and scarce because it was tied to gold. So an investor had to allocate scarce capital based on the expected return. In this scenario, taxation does act as an inhibitor to investment.

Cut to the present - there is a glut of capital. Central banks have flooded the economy with new money supply. Corporations have tons of cash on hand, a good amount of it sitting in tax havens - same goes for institutional investors. Capital has been over-allocated to real estate, propping up property bubbles. China is mass producing shit without a market - commodity prices have been lower than historical averages thanks to oversupply. In this situation, if a businessman has a genuine opportunity with good RoI, he will definitely get investment - irrespective of tax rates.

[pgardn]

When one makes money on investments, one pays taxes on that money. When one loses money on that investment, would you please explain to me what you object with offsetting that loss against any POSSIBLE future investment gain? Remember you can't use it to offset, say, income from a job and that offset is spread out over many years.

pgardn, when I (and CC) started out with basically nothing, the rules and regulations (e.g. I never had insurance until I got my 1st full time job at 21) were not so punishing that I could not save - for a home, for retirement, for investments. Now, not only is there a lack of jobs, but whatever money you earn is taxed, doesn't earn much interest, forced to pay for health insurance/penalty, etc. This is going to continue on steroids when Hillary wins - more social programs = more taxes - no matter what the promises about taxing the rich (those who are paying for her $2 billion campaign?). Look at the promises from Obamacare which is shouldered by the middle class.

Uhhh like you can make absolutely horrible decisions and not get punished. Do you know the bankruptcy rules in Texas rmt? Your homestead is off limits. Just think about abuse that occurs when you can always fall back on money that can't be touched by the banks you owe and then you CONTINUE to make shitty decisions. Stupidity is rewarded with a good bankruptcy attorney. Get it? And you complain about poor people sponging...

And I got a meeting now. Dammit.

[rmt]

[QUOTE=rmt;8755672]When one makes money on investments, one pays taxes on that money. When one loses money on that investment, would you please explain to me what you object with offsetting that loss against any POSSIBLE future investment gain? Remember you can't use it to offset, say, income from a job and that offset is spread out over many years.

pgardn, when I (and CC) started out with basically nothing, the rules and regulations (e.g. I never had insurance until I got my 1st full time job at 21) were not so punishing that I could not save - for a home, for retirement, for investments. Now, not only is there a lack of jobs, but whatever money you earn is taxed, doesn't earn much interest, forced to pay for health insurance/penalty, etc. This is going to continue on steroids when Hillary wins - more social programs = more taxes - no matter what the promises about taxing the rich (those who are paying for her $2 billion campaign?). Look at the promises from Obamacare which is shouldered by the middle class.[/

This is like that fake charter school argument you tried to lie about. You omit so many facts and so much context.

So are you a liar? Or just ignorant?

Congratulations on a post without your usual filth. When I mention charter school, I am speaking from my personal experience. I realize that other charter schools in other parts of the country may not be the same - probably not since we are the 4th largest district in the nation and so have more resources than usual. You will believe whatever it is that you want to believe about me - at least, I respect your right to have opinions different from my own.

[Warlord23]

When one makes money on investments, one pays taxes on that money. When one loses money on that investment, would you please explain to me what you object with offsetting that loss against any POSSIBLE future investment gain? Remember you can't use it to offset, say, income from a job and that offset is spread out over many years.

pgardn, when I (and CC) started out with basically nothing, the rules and regulations (e.g. I never had insurance until I got my 1st full time job at 21) were not so punishing that I could not save - for a home, for retirement, for investments. Now, not only is there a lack of jobs, but whatever money you earn is taxed, doesn't earn much interest, forced to pay for health insurance/penalty, etc. This is going to continue on steroids when Hillary wins - more social programs = more taxes - no matter what the promises about taxing the rich (those who are paying for her $2 billion campaign?). Look at the promises from Obamacare which is shouldered by the middle class.

This here is the crux of the issue. Through the course of your life, the economic framework of the world has changed - but most people possess almost no understanding of it. Nixon ended gold convertibility, central banks followed the lead of Milton Friedman and the Monetarists, exchange rates went from fixed to floating to mixed models, the Euro happened, global trade exploded, capital allocation went trans-national via large corporations.

You can sense that things have changed. But your explanation of this change is based on listening to unqualified TV and talk radio hosts who themselves have little understanding of economics. Hence you blame the welfare state, tax policy, regulation etc without empirical evidence. And you think a moron like Trump can somehow solve this complex problem that he has no clue about.

[rmt]

Uhhh like you can make absolutely horrible decisions and not get punished. Do you know the bankruptcy rules in Texas rmt? Your homestead is off limits. Just think about abuse that occurs when you can always fall back on money that can't be touched by the banks you owe and then you CONTINUE to make shitty decisions. Stupidity is rewarded with a good bankruptcy attorney. Get it? And you complain about poor people sponging...

And I got a meeting now. Dammit.

You lost the money you risked - you're offsetting against POSSIBLE (not guaranteed) future GAINS - if you don't gain, you can't offset. I think the homestead rule is pretty much nationwide - they don't want to make people homeless. What would you suggest to guard people against their own stupidity? The US is a nation of second chances - would you prefer that if you made a mistake, you could never recover in your lifetime?

[CosmicCowboy]

This rationale is often quoted but unproven in the modern era. Back in the day, capital was finite and scarce because it was tied to gold. So an investor had to allocate scarce capital based on the expected return. In this scenario, taxation does act as an inhibitor to investment.

Cut to the present - there is a glut of capital. Central banks have flooded the economy with new money supply. Corporations have tons of cash on hand, a good amount of it sitting in tax havens - same goes for institutional investors. Capital has been over-allocated to real estate, propping up property bubbles. China is mass producing shit without a market - commodity prices have been lower than historical averages thanks to oversupply. In this situation, if a businessman has a genuine opportunity with good RoI, he will definitely get investment - irrespective of tax rates.

You are right. There is a huge amount of capital sitting on the sidelines because they can't find investments with a reasonable risk factored return on investment. Personally I can borrow all the money I want for me or my business because I have a 780 credit score and a substantial net worth but I can't imagine being a 20 something in this current environment that wants to start a significant business without having family money or a private backer...the banks would laugh you out the door.

[Warlord23]

You are right. There is a huge amount of capital sitting on the sidelines because they can't find investments with a reasonable risk factored return on investment. Personally I can borrow all the money I want for me or my business because I have a 780 credit score and a substantial net worth but I can't imagine being a 20 something in this current environment that wants to start a significant business without having family money or a private backer...the banks would laugh you out the door.

I know what you mean. I feel for the 20-year-olds in this environment, with not enough high-paying jobs or opportunities to start a business. Established business owners and experienced professionals have been doing great though. What Western economies need is a competitive edge in high-impact areas that can't be automated or outsourced to cheaper locations. Governments need to partner with and incentivize the private sector to invest in digital innovation, renewable energy tech and smart cities. Pretty soon these technologies are going to be important to better manage large urban centers both in the West and elsewhere.

On a different note, 3 months ago I was deciding whether to pull the trigger on some investment property in London or move money into stocks, and then the folks here voted for Brexit and economic uncertainty. I see a Trump Presidency as a similar event - it may be a bitter pill for financially secure people like you as well as the financially insecure young. Certainly Trump can do a lot more damage than a left-leaning Supreme Court. And his tax cuts by themselves aren't going to make America competitive.

[pgardn]

You lost the money you risked - you're offsetting against POSSIBLE (not guaranteed) future GAINS - if you don't gain, you can't offset. I think the homestead rule is pretty much nationwide - they don't want to make people homeless. What would you suggest to guard people against their own stupidity? The US is a nation of second chances - would you prefer that if you made a mistake, you could never recover in your lifetime?

I would suggest stupid people NOT take business risks. I would suggest that it hurt a little bit because it clearly does not when people go bankrupt multiple times. I would suggest moving into an cheap apartment. Do you think the people during the housing crisis deserved to lose their home due to stupidity and duplicity by mortgage companies while others don't? Do you think everyone should own a home? I don't.

[Spurminator]

I'm a little confused as to how USSC justices are going to set my tax rate.

[pgardn]

You lost the money you risked - you're offsetting against POSSIBLE (not guaranteed) future GAINS - if you don't gain, you can't offset. I think the homestead rule is pretty much nationwide - they don't want to make people homeless. What would you suggest to guard people against their own stupidity? The US is a nation of second chances - would you prefer that if you made a mistake, you could never recover in your lifetime?

And why do realtors get the most wide ranging tax breaks? There are other businesses that take just as much risk.

[rmt]

I would suggest stupid people NOT take business risks. I would suggest that it hurt a little bit because it clearly does not when people go bankrupt multiple times. I would suggest moving into an cheap apartment. Do you think the people during the housing crisis deserved to lose their home due to stupidity and duplicity by mortgage companies while others don't? Do you think everyone should own a home? I don't.

Somehow, I think our roles are reversed in this conversation - like I'm a liberal (arguing for leniency) and you're a conservative (taking the tough, heartless stance) - lol. We can't stop people from making mistakes - we can hope that they learn from their mistakes - but it's a consequence of the freedoms we enjoy - the freedom to fail. I remember one of my son's speech therapist - had a PHD in speech therapy - made good money but for the life of her, just couldn't handle her finances - late bill payments/penalties, checking acct overdrafts, stressed out and obviously, it wasn't because she was stupid - just poor decisions.

I'd like to comment on your earlier comment that I "complain about poor people sponging." As I've mentioned before regarding Obamacare, I don't blame the people who enroll, get physicals/labs/procedures done and then drop - I blame the politicians who write and pass these laws. Same with welfare - there should be some mechanism for limited time on welfare and training/education to get people off welfare. Welfare should be for people who fall on rough times - a temporary thing - not for a lifetime. For both ACA and welfare, I don't blame people for acting in their own self-interest - it's the poorly written laws/rules that allow people to take advantage of the system.

No, I don't think everyone should own a home - you should only buy one if you can afford it - and we're back to the poor laws/rules again that allowed them to qualify for those mortgages.

[pgardn]

Somehow, I think our roles are reversed in this conversation - like I'm a liberal (arguing for leniency) and you're a conservative (taking the tough, heartless stance) - lol. We can't stop people from making mistakes - we can hope that they learn from their mistakes - but it's a consequence of the freedoms we enjoy - the freedom to fail. I remember one of my son's speech therapist - had a PHD in speech therapy - made good money but for the life of her, just couldn't handle her finances - late bill payments/penalties, checking acct overdrafts, stressed out and obviously, it wasn't because she was stupid - just poor decisions.

I'd like to comment on your earlier comment that I "complain about poor people sponging." As I've mentioned before regarding Obamacare, I don't blame the people who enroll, get physicals/labs/procedures done and then drop - I blame the politicians who write and pass these laws. Same with welfare - there should be some mechanism for limited time on welfare and training/education to get people off welfare. Welfare should be for people who fall on rough times - a temporary thing - not for a lifetime. For both ACA and welfare, I don't blame people for acting in their own self-interest - it's the poorly written laws/rules that allow people to take advantage of the system.

No, I don't think everyone should own a home - you should only buy one if you can afford it - and we're back to the poor laws/rules again that allowed them to qualify for those mortgages.

What makes you think I'm a liberal?

I do blame people who only look out for themselves. One of the horrible things that has happened to this country is the lack of sense of community, and helping other people. The government does not do a good job of this, and churches and charity groups can only handle so much. Neighbors should be able to tell neighbors " you are stupid, it's not this easy, it does not work like this. Lets go have a drink and go over this. Your frog farm in the desert is a mirage. Amphibians need water."

You can stamp on dreams that are not attainable.

Instead we get leechy Trumpets telling others how to fool people and make money doing it.

[rmt]

And why do realtors get the most wide ranging tax breaks? There are other businesses that take just as much risk.

You mean real estate? I don't know - maybe it has to do with it being tangible and permanent - adding stability to communities and society as opposed to say a bond - just a promise to repay. I know the mortgage interest deduction helps to encourage home ownership. I'd say real estate is less risky than most (as long as the location is good) - people will always need to live somewhere. I think that airbnb will have a substantial effect on the hotel business.

[pgardn]

You mean real estate? I don't know - maybe it has to do with it being tangible and permanent - adding stability to communities and society as opposed to say a bond - just a promise to repay. I know the mortgage interest deduction helps to encourage home ownership. I'd say real estate is less risky than most (as long as the location is good) - people will always need to live somewhere. I think that airbnb will have a substantial effect on the hotel business.

Trump said he would get rid of the break as he has abused it to the detriment of others.

[rmt]

What makes you think I'm a liberal?

I do blame people who only look out for themselves. One of the horrible things that has happened to this country is the lack of sense of community, and helping other people. The government does not do a good job of this, and churches and charity groups can only handle so much. Neighbors should be able to tell neighbors " you are stupid, it's not this easy, it does not work like this. Lets go have a drink and go over this. Your frog farm in the desert is a mirage. Amphibians need water."

You can stamp on dreams that are not attainable.

Instead we get leechy Trumpets telling others how to fool people and make money doing it.

Well, more liberal than I am - no offense meant - the earlier convo just felt contrary :-)

Message boards have become the new neighborhoods. I have gotten lots of advice from homeschooling moms, moms with asthmatic/allergic kids, etc. but maybe females are more willing to share?

People are looking to the government to do what family, friends, neighbors and churches used to do. Maybe it's the mobility in the US - that we don't put down roots/ties like we used to. Close knit communities like the Amish still have that sense of community - they don't need insurance - if something happens, the whole community pitches in and helps.

[rmt]

Trump said he would get rid of the break as he has abused it to the detriment of others.

What break? Do you mean the carryover loss - that's not just for real estate.

[TheGreatYacht]

Obama going in on Rubio's cuban ass tbh

[CosmicCowboy]

And why do realtors get the most wide ranging tax breaks? There are other businesses that take just as much risk.

realtors get tax breaks?

:lol

[pgardn]

realtors get tax breaks?

:lol

im on an iPad, give me a break...

Developers get a tax break on properties in a number of ways.

There, I did not write real....... So my iPad would change it to realtor

[pgardn]

Well, more liberal than I am - no offense meant - the earlier convo just felt contrary :-)

Message boards have become the new neighborhoods. I have gotten lots of advice from homeschooling moms, moms with asthmatic/allergic kids, etc. but maybe females are more willing to share?

People are looking to the government to do what family, friends, neighbors and churches used to do. Maybe it's the mobility in the US - that we don't put down roots/ties like we used to. Close knit communities like the Amish still have that sense of community - they don't need insurance - if something happens, the whole community pitches in and helps.

No offense taken.

I am a liberation in Texas and a conservative in California. It's all relative

Damn it to hell my wife's iPad has become mine and it's changing all my words. You are is your... Liberation for liberal...

i think your (possessive) explanation is very reasonable.

[CosmicCowboy]

im on an iPad, give me a break...

Developers get a tax break on properties in a number of ways.

There, I did not write real....... So my iPad would change it to realtor

OK I'll cut you some slack this time...:lol

[DMC]

Trump said he would get rid of the break as he has abused it to the detriment of others.
That was a shitty talking point by him that he considered clever... that he wouldn't have taken those if she hadn't allowed it. He's saying he is morally bankrupt and if allowed, he'll do anything within his power to profit despite the negative effect for the rest of us. So what the solution, give him ultimate power? Then he can do anything he wants because hey, if "they" didn't want him abusing presidential powers, they should have changed the laws about them before he took office. They've had what, 200 years or more?

While I side with him on taking allowed tax breaks, I don't agree that being a slum lord over every aspect of your business because it skirts the law is excusable because hey, no one stopped me.

[pgardn]

That was a shitty talking point by him that he considered clever... that he wouldn't have taken those if she hadn't allowed it. He's saying he is morally bankrupt and if allowed, he'll do anything within his power to profit despite the negative effect for the rest of us. So what the solution, give him ultimate power? Then he can do anything he wants because hey, if "they" didn't want him abusing presidential powers, they should have changed the laws about them before he took office. They've had what, 200 years or more?

While I side with him on taking allowed tax breaks, I don't agree that being a slum lord over every aspect of your business because it skirts the law is excusable because hey, no one stopped me.

I totally agree.

But it clearly resonated with some peeps. He knows how to clean up a dirty system because he has played dirty extraordinarily well. I think being an "outsider" allowed him to fancy this strategy. Hell, Clinton certainly knows dirty politics, but she would not dare brag on it as part of a requisite Ina resume to be president.