View Full Version : Election Update: Trump May Depress Republican Turnout, Spelling Disaster For The GOP
FuzzyLumpkins
10-23-2016, 03:05 PM
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/
The problem for Trump is that taken as a whole, his polls aren’t very good — and, in fact, they may still be getting worse. An ABC News national poll released on Sunday morning — the first live-caller poll conducted fully after the final presidential debate — showed Clinton leading Trump 50 percent to 38 percent. Clinton’s 12-point lead in that poll is toward the high end of a broad range of results from recent national polls, with surveys showing everything from a 15-point Clinton lead to a 2-point Trump edge. But the ABC News poll is interesting given its recency and given why Clinton has pulled so far ahead in it — Republicans aren’t very happy with their candidate and may not turn out to vote:
The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.
I’d urge a little bit of caution here, given that swings in enthusiasm can be transient and can sometimes exaggerate the underlying change in voter sentiment. Our polls-only forecast has Clinton up by about 7 percentage points instead of by double digits — and our polls-plus forecast would still bet on the race tightening slightly.
But you can easily see how the worst-case scenario is firmly on the table for Trump and Republican down-ballot candidates, where the bottom falls out from GOP turnout. Consider:
Trump is getting only about 80 percent of the Republican vote, whereas candidates typically finish at about 90 percent of their party’s vote or above.
Furthermore, the Republicans missing from Trump’s column tend to be high-education, high-income voters, who typically also have a high propensity to vote.
Voters are increasingly convinced that Clinton will win the election, and turnout can be lower in lopsided elections. (Although, this presents risks to both candidates: complacency on the part of Democrats, despondency on the part of Republicans.)
Republicans and Trump have a substantial ground game deficit, with Clinton and Democrats holding a nearly 4-1 advantage in paid staffers.
Trump’s rhetoric that the election is rigged could discourage turnout among his own voters.
Trump’s base is relatively small, especially if he underperforms among college-educated Republicans.
The nightmare scenario for the GOP is that high-information Republican voters, seeing Trump imploding and not necessarily having been happy with him as their nominee in the first place, feel free to cast a protest vote at the top of the ticket. Meanwhile, lower-information Republican voters don’t turn out at all, given that Trump’s rigging rhetoric could suppress their vote and that Republicans don’t have the field operation to pull them back in. That’s how you could get a Clinton landslide like the one the ABC News poll describes, along with a Democratic Senate and possibly even — although it’s a reach — a Democratic House.
That isn’t the only scenario in play, but it’s an increasing possibility. Overall, Clinton’s chances of winning the presidency are 87 percent according to our polls-only model and 85 percent according to polls-plus.
I wonder what's up with that IBT poll. They seem to be even more off than the LA Times one.
Desperation to make it seem closer, perhaps?
FuzzyLumpkins
10-23-2016, 03:14 PM
I wonder what's up with that IBT poll. They seem to be even more off than the LA Times one.
Desperation to make it seem closer, perhaps?
I stopped paying attention to individual polls some time ago. The aggregates that consider bias is where it is at.
At this point Trump might lose AZ, NV, and GA. That would be hilarious with board conservatives not likely to be back until midterms.
baseline bum
10-23-2016, 03:27 PM
I stopped paying attention to individual polls some time ago. The aggregates that consider bias is where it is at.
At this point Trump might lose AZ, NV, and GA. That would be hilarious with board conservatives not likely to be back until midterms.
I'm going to go vote tomorrow. I wonder what turnout is going to look like in Texas for early voting.
FuzzyLumpkins
10-23-2016, 03:29 PM
I'm going to go vote tomorrow. I wonder what turnout is going to look like in Texas for early voting.
Texas polls are within the margin of error. I'm going to vote dem I think instead of my typical third party column voting.
baseline bum
10-23-2016, 03:34 PM
Texas polls are within the margin of error. I'm going to vote dem I think instead of my typical third party column voting.
It'll be strange to have a vote that might actually mean something for once. My federal house district is safe Democrat and my state house district is safe Republican so they have never meant much.
Wild Cobra
10-23-2016, 03:46 PM
LOL at the OP.
Anyone not think Hillary will depress the democrat vote?
FuzzyLumpkins
10-23-2016, 03:53 PM
LOL at the OP.
Anyone not think Hillary will depress the democrat vote?
Lol at a dimwits reading comprehension. They address this.
It'll be strange to have a vote that might actually mean something for once. My federal house district is safe Democrat and my state house district is safe Republican so they have never meant much.
Take your mexican friends along. :tu
LOL at the OP.
Anyone not think Hillary will depress the democrat vote?
She's certainly not depressing the women vote. There's a surge in early voting among women. North Carolina is looking good in early voting thus far.
Axl Rose
10-23-2016, 03:55 PM
It's their own fault for shitting all over their own candidate for 18 months and refusing to listen to their base. Blow both of these pieces of shit up and start over
when these "never trump" assholes started their shit did they seriously think that there wouldn't be downballot repercussions? I'll be voting for trump and third party where available and not voting where there are only two choices
It's their own fault for shitting all over their own candidate for 18 months and refusing to listen to their base. Blow both of these pieces of shit up and start over
when these "never trump" assholes started their shit did they seriously think that there wouldn't be downballot repercussions? I'll be voting for trump and third party where available and not voting where there are only two choices
Fault lies with Trump himself. He never even tried to expand the base outside of his crazy basket of deplorables.
The actual decent republicans said no to him because he was an extremist. Is that simple.
The race would have been down to teh wire if he just kept his mouth shut for the most part.
ducks
10-23-2016, 04:32 PM
I wonder what's up with that IBT poll. They seem to be even more off than the LA Times one.
Desperation to make it seem closer, perhaps?
last three presidents they were right
Axl Rose
10-23-2016, 06:31 PM
I wonder what's up with that IBT poll. They seem to be even more off than the LA Times one.
Desperation to make it seem closer, perhaps?
This one doesn't oversample dems +12 or 14 and women 60-40. It's been the most accurate poll the past few election cycles
ducks
10-23-2016, 06:38 PM
All this talk she has it in bag people will not come out and vote for the clinton
This one doesn't oversample dems +12 or 14 and women 60-40. It's been the most accurate poll the past few election cycles
I'll meet you half way and give you that point. This one could be a little of an outlier. But it does show the dems are now more enthusiastic about voting.
Still, her lead is around 6-7 points on average. The LA poll has been proven to be the ultimate outlier of all outlier so throw that out.
Axl Rose
10-23-2016, 06:49 PM
I'll meet you half way and give you that point. This one could be a little of an outlier. But it does show the dems are now more enthusiastic about voting.
Still, her lead is around 6-7 points on average. The LA poll has been proven to be the ultimate outlier of all outlier so throw that out.but the la times poll result happens to mirror ibd which is solid. Same with ppp. Also nate silver gave la times an A-, so soemthing is definitely going on. Are you aware that Wikileaks revealed possible collision between pollsters? A +12 dem bias can't be taken seriously. Dem enthusiasm is down, evidenced by early voting. She would have to crush obamas 08 turnout for any of this to make sense.
but the la times poll result happens to mirror ibd which is solid. Same with ppp. Also nate silver gave la times an A-, so soemthing is definitely going on. Are you aware that Wikileaks revealed possible collision between pollsters? A +12 dem bias can't be taken seriously. Dem enthusiasm is down, evidenced by early voting. She would have to crush obamas 08 turnout for any of this to make sense.
Dont know where you're getting your information but you might want to find someplace else to get solid info.
First of all the la poll has a republican bias to the tune of 6 points.
Ibd has also a republican bias although not as egregious as the la one.
As for early voting. Early returns look good for dems in North Carolina and Florida. 2 key states Trump has to have. No exceptions.
The last weekly poll showed the enthusiasm for democrats at an all time high of 83. Trump's went from 90 to 79. Huge drop off.
The sooner people come to terms with this the better off they'll be. This won't be a close election.
Will Hunting
10-23-2016, 07:04 PM
Fault lies with Trump himself. He never even tried to expand the base outside of his crazy basket of deplorables.
The actual decent republicans said no to him because he was an extremist. Is that simple.
The race would have been down to teh wire if he just kept his mouth shut for the most part.
Your kidding yourself if you think Republicans like shit Romney and Paul Ryan didn't support him because they're "decent". They didn't support him because he wanted to dismantle the free trade bullshit & hawkish foreign policy that they've supported.
but the la times poll result happens to mirror ibd which is solid. Same with ppp. Also nate silver gave la times an A-, so soemthing is definitely going on. Are you aware that Wikileaks revealed possible collision between pollsters? A +12 dem bias can't be taken seriously. Dem enthusiasm is down, evidenced by early voting. She would have to crush obamas 08 turnout for any of this to make sense.
Alao don't you find it odd that both of them are in the low 40s? No idea what methodology they are using but each of them have consistently had a 45-47%. Certainly the case with Hillary. In the Ibd polls she comes down to Trump. Why?
As as far as I'm concerned nothing campaign ending has happened to the Hillary campaign to lose 5 or 6 percent since the first debate.
baseline bum
10-23-2016, 07:14 PM
Your kidding yourself if you think Republicans like shit Romney and Paul Ryan didn't support him because they're "decent". They didn't support him because he wanted to dismantle the free trade bullshit & hawkish foreign policy that they've supported.
Ryan would support him if he thought Trump could win. He was about to go campaigning with him until the "Grab them in the pussy" tape effectively ended the election*
*assuming Russialeaks doesn't have any really good dirt on Cunton
baseline bum
10-23-2016, 07:16 PM
Alao don't you find it odd that both of them are in the low 40s? No idea what methodology they are using but each of them have consistently had a 45-47%. Certainly the case with Hillary. In the Ibd polls she comes down to Trump. Why?
As as far as I'm concerned nothing campaign ending has happened to the Hillary campaign to lose 5 or 6 percent since the first debate.
Such cherry-picking. IBD was a whole 0.5% closer averaged over the last three presidential elections than ABC, who has the bitch up 12.
Such cherry-picking. IBD was a whole 0.5% closer averaged over the last three presidential elections than ABC, who has the bitch up 12.
So you're saying Trump is actually leading and winning this election?
State polls don't reflect that at all and she has had double digit leads in most of them for the last couple of weeks. Even Arizona is +1 right now for her.
baseline bum
10-23-2016, 07:24 PM
So you're saying Trump is actually leading and winning this election?
State polls don't reflect that at all and she has had double digit leads in most of them for the last couple of weeks. Even Arizona is +1 right now for her.
I meant Trumpfan is cherry picking a single poll and holding out hope because it was slightly more accurate when averaged over the last 3 presidential elections than the ones that have Clinton demolishing Trump.
I meant Trumpfan is cherry picking a single poll and holding out hope because it was slightly more accurate when averaged over the last 3 presidential elections than the ones that have Clinton demolishing Trump.
Oh. lol
You managed to throw both Trump and Hillary under the shit bus so was hard to tell. lmao
FuzzyLumpkins
10-23-2016, 08:27 PM
but the la times poll result happens to mirror ibd which is solid. Same with ppp. Also nate silver gave la times an A-, so soemthing is definitely going on. Are you aware that Wikileaks revealed possible collision between pollsters? A +12 dem bias can't be taken seriously. Dem enthusiasm is down, evidenced by early voting. She would have to crush obamas 08 turnout for any of this to make sense.
Early voting doesn't indicate that. Early voting is showing a larger turnout of women. This makes sense considering the first ever female candidate up against the pig.
538 considers all the polls and adjusts for bias. He has HRC at 8:1 odds to win and averaging a 7 point advantage.
FuzzyLumpkins
10-23-2016, 08:29 PM
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176
Early voting shows upsurge of women
In three crucial battlegrounds — North Carolina, Florida and Georgia — women are casting early ballots in disproportionate numbers. And in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump with detailed early voting data available, it’s clear that Democratic women have been particularly motivated to turn out or turn ballots in.
In North Carolina, 87,000 Democratic women have already moved to cast early ballots compared with just 60,000 Republican women, according to data shared with POLITICO by J. Michael Bitzer, an expert on North Carolina’s early vote at Catawba College. Men in the state, meanwhile, are closely divided: 50,000 Republicans and 52,000 Democrats have voted.
“That’s certainly an energy and mobilization indicator this early for the Clinton campaign and Democrats down ballot,” Bitzer said.
In Florida, Daniel Smith, an early-voting expert at the University of Florida, noted that about 55 percent of the 880,000 people who voted as of the end of the day Wednesday are women, even though women make up less than 53 percent of the state’s registered voters. And in Georgia, a new poll on Friday showed Clinton leading Trump by 5 percentage points among early voters — despite trailing Trump narrowly among likely voters — after a noticeable bump in early voting among women.
“I could see, the week following the first debate, the percentage of women requesting ballots increased in both North Carolina and Georgia,” said Michael McDonald, another early vote expert who runs the United States Elections Project.
FuzzyLumpkins
10-23-2016, 08:44 PM
I actually like the GOP echo chamber consumers wishcasting.
Worked real well last election.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-IoxzTjTYc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TwuR0jCavk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jb_r8lQgG1g
FuzzyLumpkins
10-23-2016, 08:44 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EAT6596JpxM
baseline bum
10-24-2016, 07:27 AM
I just cast my vote. Looks like black voters are definitely turning out in my district.
Spurminator
10-24-2016, 01:26 PM
Early Voting: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/early-voting-data-shows-strengths-trump-clinton-42982907
Early voting is surging in Arizona, another state Trump can't afford to lose. Arizona has long been reliably Republican, but Clinton is targeting it.More than 1.9 million ballots have been requested and 36,000 returned. That's more than triple the 10,800 ballots returned during a similar period in 2012.
Democrats have a 44 percent to 31 percent lead over Republicans in ballots returned. Another 25 percent were independent or unknown. At this point in 2012, Democrats had a narrower 38 percent to 35 percent lead, according to Catalist.
While figures are preliminary, Tranter, the Republican analyst, said Arizona had become competitive.
"It's close," Tranter said.
https://animationreview.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/golden-yeggs-c2a9-warner-bros.jpg
baseline bum
10-24-2016, 02:02 PM
Damn the GOP should have made Cruz or Kasich fight it out with Trump until the convention.
Titles thread "Election Update"
Posts opinion piece.
FuzzyLumpkins
10-24-2016, 02:57 PM
Titles thread "Election Update"
Posts opinion piece.
It's the title of the article, dim. You must be having a bad day. You are particularly butthurt today.
Nevermind the article is chock full of empirical polling data.
Click bait snares another, propagates through surrogates..poses as "poling data" wrapped in a nice opinion piece Fuzzy happens to agree with, just to fool the auto-immune system.
Surrogate lashes out with ad hom.
Must be Monday.
Axl Rose
11-09-2016, 03:32 AM
Dont know where you're getting your information but you might want to find someplace else to get solid info.
First of all the la poll has a republican bias to the tune of 6 points.
Ibd has also a republican bias although not as egregious as the la one.
As for early voting. Early returns look good for dems in North Carolina and Florida. 2 key states Trump has to have. No exceptions.
The last weekly poll showed the enthusiasm for democrats at an all time high of 83. Trump's went from 90 to 79. Huge drop off.
The sooner people come to terms with this the better off they'll be. This won't be a close election.told you my polls had the best methodology, they are proven
Axl Rose
11-09-2016, 03:33 AM
I wonder what's up with that IBT poll. They seem to be even more off than the LA Times one.
Desperation to make it seem closer, perhaps?
No they were just the only ones not lying
Ed Lover
11-09-2016, 03:37 AM
Disaster!
Spurtacular
12-29-2017, 08:59 PM
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-may-depress-republican-turnout-spelling-disaster-for-the-gop/
The problem for Trump is that taken as a whole, his polls aren’t very good — and, in fact, they may still be getting worse. An ABC News national poll released on Sunday morning — the first live-caller poll conducted fully after the final presidential debate — showed Clinton leading Trump 50 percent to 38 percent. Clinton’s 12-point lead in that poll is toward the high end of a broad range of results from recent national polls,
:lmao 12 pt. lead
:lmao Could spot that bull shit a mile away
:lmao Even Dem Messiah Obama at his height wasn't sniffing 12 pts.
Spurtacular
12-29-2017, 09:01 PM
I meant Trumpfan is cherry picking a single poll and holding out hope because it was slightly more accurate when averaged over the last 3 presidential elections than the ones that have Clinton demolishing Trump.
:lmao Today's cuck.
AaronY
12-29-2017, 09:04 PM
Derptacular's love of the laughing emoticons is approaching hater levels of derpery
Spurtacular
12-29-2017, 09:04 PM
He was about to go campaigning with him until the "Grab them in the pussy" tape effectively ended the election
Trump effectively grabbing you by the pussy. :lmao
AaronY
12-29-2017, 09:40 PM
Must be piping laughing gas into his AC vents or something
FuzzyLumpkins
12-29-2017, 11:43 PM
The Comey letter came out a few days later and the polls changed. Spurtacular seems to not understand the notion of time.
I can remember telling MiG in the week of the election that the state polls all put together were now within the margin of error although Clinton was favored. She won the popular by 2.5m votes when the poll aggregate was at 3%.
Not sure what he thinks he is proving. No one disputes that Trump lost.
DarrinS
12-29-2017, 11:57 PM
That bathroom server was a bad idea
Spurtacular
12-30-2017, 03:11 AM
The Comey letter came out a few days later and the polls changed. Spurtacular (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=49615) seems to not understand the notion of time.
I can remember telling MiG in the week of the election that the state polls all put together were now within the margin of error although Clinton was favored. She won the popular by 2.5m votes when the poll aggregate was at 3%.
Not sure what he thinks he is proving. No one disputes that Trump lost.
Yea, we heard all about your made-up excuse for why that phony twelve percent lead didn't pan out. Comey had already nailed Clinton's ass to the wall in July. Wikileaks was killing Clinton daily. Nobody needed to be reminded that the Democrats had put up scum for election.
FuzzyLumpkins
12-30-2017, 09:02 PM
Yea, we heard all about your made-up excuse for why that phony twelve percent lead didn't pan out. Comey had already nailed Clinton's ass to the wall in July. Wikileaks was killing Clinton daily. Nobody needed to be reminded that the Democrats had put up scum for election.
Made up? We are talking about the 2 worst POTUS candidates in modern history. She stayed out of the news cycle and allowed Trump to hang himself as he still does in office. Comey was the one who was able to make her trustworthiness into in issue at the 11th hour and minds changed.
And Comey had said no charges earlier. Try and keep up.
boutons_deux
12-30-2017, 09:04 PM
"She stayed out of the news cycle"
Pootin's weekly trickle kept Hillary/Podesta emails in the news. She couldn't get any traction, as MSM related every Trump word for the advertising bonanza.
Reck's pussy got wet as fuck in this thread, bet that he/she was slapping the fuck out of that fake clitoris.
Spurtacular
12-30-2017, 09:18 PM
Made up? We are talking about the 2 worst POTUS candidates in modern history. She stayed out of the news cycle and allowed Trump to hang himself as he still does in office. Comey was the one who was able to make her trustworthiness into in issue at the 11th hour and minds changed.
And Comey had said no charges earlier. Try and keep up.
"Two worst candidates in modern history"
"Most qualified candidate ever"
:lmao Yea, you guys couldn't even pick a lie.
FuzzyLumpkins
12-30-2017, 09:33 PM
"She stayed out of the news cycle"
Pootin's weekly trickle kept Hillary/Podesta emails in the news. She couldn't get any traction, as MSM related every Trump word for the advertising bonanza.
She didn't hold rallies or press conferences. Yes I know Russia and GOPotards fixate on her.
FuzzyLumpkins
12-30-2017, 09:34 PM
"Two worst candidates in modern history"
"Most qualified candidate ever"
:lmao Yea, you guys couldn't even pick a lie.
Nice strawman. I get that you think all liberals think alike but that is just because of your limited intellect.
She didn't hold rallies or press conferences. Yes I know Russia and GOPotards fixate on her.
Why should she? She had a 98.1% chance of winning, had the debate questions spoon fed to her by CNN, had her camp build the questions for interviews of GOP candidates, never had to worry about the primaries due to collusion within the DNC to railroad her opponent to ensure she won. She was being groomed for the spot, had her husband meet Lynch to get her transgressions dismissed, etc.. ad nauseum.
She was in like Flynn. Except Flynn is now out.
Spurtacular
12-30-2017, 10:36 PM
Nice strawman. I get that you think all liberals think alike but that is just because of your limited intellect.
"Two worst candidates in modern history"
"Most qualified candidate ever"
Prominent lies? Yes or no.
Chucho
12-30-2017, 11:25 PM
Why should she? She had a 98.1% chance of winning, had the debate questions spoon fed to her by CNN, had her camp build the questions for interviews of GOP candidates, never had to worry about the primaries due to collusion within the DNC to railroad her opponent to ensure she won. She was being groomed for the spot, had her husband meet Lynch to get her transgressions dismissed, etc.. ad nauseum.
She was in like Flynn. Except Flynn is now out.
Biggest choke job in all of politics.
Biggest choke job in all of politics.
You'd think Harden was on the campaign staff.
Th'Pusher
12-31-2017, 08:50 AM
Why should she? She had a 98.1% chance of winning, had the debate questions spoon fed to her by CNN, had her camp build the questions for interviews of GOP candidates, never had to worry about the primaries due to collusion within the DNC to railroad her opponent to ensure she won. She was being groomed for the spot, had her husband meet Lynch to get her transgressions dismissed, etc.. ad nauseum.
She was in like Flynn. Except Flynn is now out.
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