Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton

[ducks]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/

[Reck]

So...long story short..he needs a turnaround of 2.7 points and Hillary has a 3.3 point average lead. He'd still lose.

BTW who the fuck is Harry Enten? I dont trust anyone that's not Silver out of that site.

[ducks]

So...long story short..he needs a turnaround of 2.7 points and Hillary has a 3.3 point average lead. He'd still lose.

BTW who the fuck is Harry Enten? I dont trust anyone that's not Silver out of that site.
someone that silver trust to write articles for his site

[ducks]

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 · 1h1 hour ago

Lots of not-very-good state polls for Clinton today, though, wiping out earlier gains she made based on nat'l polls. http://53eig.ht/29fvWfn

[CosmicCowboy]

Trump dug too deep a hole.

Short of any HUGE revelations in the next 3 days Hillary wins.

[Reck]

Jonathan C ‏@jcpolitech (https://twitter.com/jcpolitech) 1h1 hour ago (https://twitter.com/jcpolitech/status/794609732002529280) @johnbellessa (https://twitter.com/johnbellessa) @NateSilver538 (https://twitter.com/NateSilver538) this makes zero sense to me too. Most of these so called bad polls he cites are in red states.

If that is the case, lol.

Winning red states in not part of the plan.

[CosmicCowboy]

Trump dug too deep a hole.

Short of any HUGE revelations in the next 3 days Hillary wins.

That being said, Hillary is shitting herself. Had to go to Detroit today to try to keep from losing Michigan where she was ahead double digits two weeks ago...:lol

[Reck]

That being said, Hillary is shitting herself. Had to go to Detroit today to try to keep from losing Michigan where she was ahead double digits two weeks ago...:lol

That's called protecting your firewall. Her average lead there is almost 5 points.

Oh and she just went up in Florida again. RCP has her average at 1.5 after being down the whole of this week.

[ducks]

Harper Polling: Trump-Hillary Tied at 46 Percent in Pa.


(AP)




Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied in Pennsylvania four days before the election, according to a new Harper Polling survey released Friday

[pgardn]

Harper Polling: Trump-Hillary Tied at 46 Percent in Pa.


(AP)




Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied in Pennsylvania four days before the election, according to a new Harper Polling survey released Friday

Why is there an (R) next to this poll?

[Reck]

Laughable.

[CosmicCowboy]

That's called protecting your firewall. Her average lead there is almost 5 points.

Oh and she just went up in Florida again. RCP has her average at 1.5 after being down the whole of this week.

A firewall that has been solid Democrat since the 80's?...just shows how scared she is. She wouldn't be there if her polling didn't show she needed to be there.

[pgardn]

Ducks.

I got like 242 Clinton. Pretty solid.

If Florida goes Clinton, you can stop watching the screen very early and get the extra sleep for work on Wednesday. So in a way, it's a good thing for all of us to go about our way.

pgardn polling

[CosmicCowboy]

Ducks.

I got like 242 Clinton. Pretty solid.

If Florida goes Clinton, you can stop watching the screen very early and get the extra sleep for work on Wednesday. So in a way, it's a good thing for all of us to go about our way.

pgardn polling

From an electoral vote standpoint we will know early. Trump needs New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida to even have a chance.

[Reck]

A firewall that has been solid Democrat since the 80's?...just shows how scared she is. She wouldn't be there if her polling didn't show she needed to be there.

Obama did the same thing in the closing days.

Michigan or Pennsylvania aren't teh states she should be nervous of. It's places like New Hampshire and maybe Colorado.

In fact, Hillary's campaign is going to wrap up their campaign in places where she will win with certainty.

[SnakeBoy]

Trump dug too deep a hole.

Short of any HUGE revelations in the next 3 days Hillary wins.

I don't think it's fair to say Trump dug too deep a hole, the only reason he has a slight chance of winning is that he is somewhat competitive in places any other GOP candidate would be getting their ass kicked.

I know popular opinion is that a normal boring white male GOP candidate repeating the same ole losing message would win easily this time but I don't see it. Electorally the GOP has spent 2 decades digging too deep a hole with the standard GOP message imo.

[florige]

From an electoral vote standpoint we will know early. Trump needs New Hampshire, North Carolina and Florida to even have a chance.



Those three states the polls are super tight in. And if it comes down to Florida again we might not know for weeks who won the election.

[florige]

Ducks.

I got like 242 Clinton. Pretty solid.

If Florida goes Clinton, you can stop watching the screen very early and get the extra sleep for work on Wednesday. So in a way, it's a good thing for all of us to go about our way.

pgardn polling



I can promise you FL will not be done counting on Nov 8th.

[CosmicCowboy]

I don't think it's fair to say Trump dug too deep a hole, the only reason he has a slight chance of winning is that he is somewhat competitive in places any other GOP candidate would be getting their ass kicked.

I know popular opinion is that a normal boring white male GOP candidate repeating the same ole losing message would win easily this time but I don't see it. Electorally the GOP has spent 2 decades digging too deep a hole with the standard GOP message imo.

[ducks]

Trump within margin of error now in Michigan

[Reck]

Where is ducks getting all this magic polls from? :lol

[DMX7]

Nate Silver has fallen into the trap he used to accuse the mainstream media of falling into, and that trap is getting lost in the day-to-day drama of the campaign (i.e., the "who won the day" bullshit). Ultimately, the math does not make sense for Trump. He is not winning this election. He would have to start by winning the crucial swing states and I doubt he sweeps those, then he has to flip a democrat state and that's unlikely, then he has to keep from losing a dependable red state which is also becoming less likely (think Utah, Arizona or Georgia)... The probability of it all falling into place for him is close to none. It's possible but it's not happening -- he is going to lose.

[Chillen]

Trump could pull off a surprise win, but it looks like the wicked witch of Washington, D.C. is coming in with all her corruption, scandals. People in this country that vote her in will regret it because it's such a stupid vote anyway with her obvious corruption, FBI investigation and rising Obamacare costs. This country needs change bigtime, not gonna happen with a Hillary presidency or if indicted Tim Kaine presidency.

[CosmicCowboy]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

[ducks]

http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/04/exclusive-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-michigan/

[ducks]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-november-4-duplicate/index.html

[Reck]

http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/04/exclusive-poll-trump-clinton-tied-in-michigan/

"The survey, conducted by Strategic National (http://www.bloomberg.com/profiles/companies/0126042D:US-strategic-national-consulting-llc), a Republican leaning consulting firm based in Michigan"

Does anything else need be said?

You look for a result you want and you get it. Specially if you're the one conducting it.

[pgardn]

I can promise you FL will not be done counting on Nov 8th.

Very good point.

[pgardn]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

I was just hoping it would mean we can still laugh at Britain but they can't laugh back.

[ducks]

So democrat leaning polls are ok but not republics

[ducks]

troit Free Press Poll: Trump Pulls Within Margin of Error

[pgardn]

Trump could pull off a surprise win, but it looks like the wicked witch of Washington, D.C. is coming in with all her corruption, scandals. People in this country that vote her in will regret it because it's such a stupid vote anyway with her obvious corruption, FBI investigation and rising Obamacare costs. This country needs change bigtime, not gonna happen with a Hillary presidency or if indicted Tim Kaine presidency.


Not bigtime, big league.

[DMX7]

troit Free Press Poll: Trump Pulls Within Margin of Error

You're going to have a hard Tuesday. Get the alcohol ready.

[baseline bum]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

No one is excited about a Clinton presidency, but I would be extremely relieved to see her win to keep the house from being able to steer the direction of the country with no opposition.

[baseline bum]

Nate Silver has fallen into the trap he used to accuse the mainstream media of falling into, and that trap is getting lost in the day-to-day drama of the campaign (i.e., the "who won the day" bullshit). Ultimately, the math does not make sense for Trump. He is not winning this election. He would have to start by winning the crucial swing states and I doubt he sweeps those, then he has to flip a democrat state and that's unlikely, then he has to keep from losing a dependable red state which is also becoming less likely (think Utah, Arizona or Georgia)... The probability of it all falling into place for him is close to none. It's possible but it's not happening -- he is going to lose.

Nate Silver is pretty clear why he's giving Trump better odds than most others: because a lot of Clinton's strength in the popular vote comes from red states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia that she has no hope of winning and that her firewall is pretty fragile. Silver knows rust belt states votes aren't independent from one another, so if Trump starts picking up steam in Michigan he probably will in Wisconsin and Ohio too. I hate the fucking electoral college. This wouldn't be a Buster Douglas beating Tyson level of upset to see that fat piece of shit win.

[tlongII]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

Except for RG. He's a big fan apparently.

[AFBlue]

I don't think it's fair to say Trump dug too deep a hole, the only reason he has a slight chance of winning is that he is somewhat competitive in places any other GOP candidate would be getting their ass kicked.

I know popular opinion is that a normal boring white male GOP candidate repeating the same ole losing message would win easily this time but I don't see it. Electorally the GOP has spent 2 decades digging too deep a hole with the standard GOP message imo.

I don't think you can say definitively that a non-Trump candidate would be faring worse in the states where the GOP is less competitive. Part of the current state may have to do with Trump's grassroots appeal, whatever that may be, but it may also have to do with the lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket.

Not sure there's a way to prove either of us right, but I the conventional wisdom of a mainstream GOP candidate winning this going away seems like pretty sound logic to me based on how flawed of a candidate Hillary is.

[boutons_deux]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

#NeverYourBoyTrump

[DMX7]

Nate Silver is pretty clear why he's giving Trump better odds than most others: because a lot of Clinton's strength in the popular vote comes from red states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia that she has no hope of winning and that her firewall is pretty fragile. Silver knows rust belt states votes aren't independent from one another, so if Trump starts picking up steam in Michigan he probably will in Wisconsin and Ohio too. I hate the fucking electoral college. This wouldn't be a Buster Douglas beating Tyson level of upset to see that fat piece of shit win.

I'm not even taking into consideration the national popular vote. She could lose every old confederate state (sans Virginia) and still win.

[Reck]

Nate Silver is pretty clear why he's giving Trump better odds than most others: because a lot of Clinton's strength in the popular vote comes from red states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia that she has no hope of winning and that her firewall is pretty fragile. Silver knows rust belt states votes aren't independent from one another, so if Trump starts picking up steam in Michigan he probably will in Wisconsin and Ohio too. I hate the fucking electoral college. This wouldn't be a Buster Douglas beating Tyson level of upset to see that fat piece of shit win.

Nate Silver's forecast are poll sensitive. And with so many questionable polls out in the last few days (Most of which are republican leaning) it throws him off.

Back in 2012 the same thing happened. Everything was tied.

[florige]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

I don't think it will be personally. I think Hillary is going to squeeze by by the skin of her teeth tbh. I just get the feeling that's it's going to be a whole lot closer than people think.

[florige]

No one is excited about a Clinton presidency, but I would be extremely relieved to see her win to keep the house from being able to steer the direction of the country with no opposition.


This is what worries me. Turnout could be key. I know talking about signs and stickers is dumb, but I'm 08 and 2012 Obama had this state covered with signs, bumper stickers, etc... Not sure about where you guys live, I have yet to see a single Hillary yard sign anywhere. I think I may have run across a bumper sticker. Idk just something I noticed. Is Dem's sometimes have a history of not turning out. That's why I think she is back in her "firewall" states the last few days.

[baseline bum]

Nate Silver's forecast are poll sensitive. And with so many questionable polls out in the last few days (Most of which are republican leaning) it throws him off.

Back in 2012 the same thing happened. Everything was tied.

Nate Silver had Obama with a 91% chance of winning the electoral vote on election day 2012, and an 83.7% chance 5 days before the election. When Silver says something I listen based on his track record. Dude is 99/100 calling states the previous two elections.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/

[Reck]

Nate Silver had Obama with a 91% chance of winning the electoral vote on election day 2012, and an 83.7% chance 5 days before the election. When Silver says something I listen based on his track record. Dude is 99/100 calling states the previous two elections.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/

Good thing we're still 4 days out then.

[ducks]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkVLcZuCA4


Lol the president looses his cool

[baseline bum]

Good thing we're still 4 days out then.

4,5,6,7,8

[Reck]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkVLcZuCA4


Lol the president looses his cool

That was actually badass.

In a Trump rally, the old man gets beaten half to death. He gave the protester respect.

[ducks]

That was actually badass.

In a Trump rally, the old man gets beaten half to death. He gave the protester respect.
With the clinton person who is getting paid
By her

[DMX7]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkVLcZuCA4


Lol the president looses his cool

That was actually a great moment for him. There was a republican on TV commenting about it and even he said the same.

[pgardn]

This is what worries me. Turnout could be key. I know talking about signs and stickers is dumb, but I'm 08 and 2012 Obama had this state covered with signs, bumper stickers, etc... Not sure about where you guys live, I have yet to see a single Hillary yard sign anywhere. I think I may have run across a bumper sticker. Idk just something I noticed. Is Dem's sometimes have a history of not turning out. That's why I think she is back in her "firewall" states the last few days.

San Antonio Tx NW side. All yard signs are rare in my neighborhood this election compared to other years. Yet I bet more people vote.

It will clearly be negative voting. People are too embarrassed to put up signs for either candidate IMO. I have seen signs more signs for sheriff etc... fewer for presidential candidates. Sums up my feelings as well. Personally I never put up signs nor display stickers.

[angrydude]

I see Bernie signs though.

You're going to see a lot of people who never vote turning up for this one.

[ducks]

I have seen serval trump signs one clinton

[spurraider21]

I have seen serval trump signs one clinton
http://www.politico.com/story/2012/10/mitt-drawing-larger-crowds-082348

[florige]

San Antonio Tx NW side. All yard signs are rare in my neighborhood this election compared to other years. Yet I bet more people vote.

It will clearly be negative voting. People are too embarrassed to put up signs for either candidate IMO. I have seen signs more signs for sheriff etc... fewer for presidential candidates. Sums up my feelings as well. Personally I never put up signs nor display stickers.

I never do either. Just something I noticed this time around.

[florige]

I see Bernie signs though.

You're going to see a lot of people who never vote turning up for this one.



I just registered to vote last month. I live in liberal MD so my vote won't count for nothing. But hopefully it's drives her national popular vote tally up.

[boutons_deux]

My Bernie yard sign stands defiant.

The paucity of signs matches the lack of enthusiasm for either candidate.

I saw was old, white, probably well-off guy in a 78209 Starbucks with a "I'm proud to be a deplorable" tee-shirt.

[florige]

That was actually badass.

In a Trump rally, the old man gets beaten half to death. He gave the protester respect.


That poor old man probably is on life support this morning had he'd been a Hillary supporter at a Trump rally.

[spurraider21]

My Bernie yard sign stands defiant.
http://i2.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/001/987/fyeah.jpg

[pgardn]

I never do either. Just something I noticed this time around.

Because I travel some and do have frequent contact outside this board (Avante? you here bud), I have noticed people will engage in a "can you believe this shit" type banter, but not any actual discussion that hints support for either candidate. 4 years ago there was legit discussion.

[Pelicans78]

A firewall that has been solid Democrat since the 80's?...just shows how scared she is. She wouldn't be there if her polling didn't show she needed to be there.

Not just how scared she is, but how horrible of a candidate she has become. Easily the most corrupt politician of our lifetime.

[boutons_deux]

Not just how scared she is, but how horrible of a candidate she has become. Easily the most corrupt politician of our lifetime.

... investigate ANY longtime politician you'll find the same or worse. How is it that long-time Congresspeople get much richer in office?

Still, where is Hillary's crime? Witch-hunting investigations, esp by the corrupted, leaky anus of the FBI, don't mean there is crime, only investigations

[boutons_deux]

According to Its Guru, Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight’s Prediction Model Is Failing in the Clinton-Trump Race

Trump's path is precarious and not one other professional election handicapper records the seismic shift in Trump’s chances that FiveThirtyEight does.

http://www.alternet.org/fivethirtyeights-prediction-model-failing-clinton-trump-race-thats-according-its-guru-nate-silver

[Reck]

Not just how scared she is, but how horrible of a candidate she has become. Easily the most corrupt politician of our lifetime.

That's a stretch by all accounts. Thanks for playing in the Trump school of retarded hyperbole.

There's been at least 20 or so investigation on the Clintons for the past 20 or so years as a whole and none have found anything. And it hasn't been for a lack of trying.

For someone that's supposedly the most corrupted politician of our time she sure has a relatively clean criminal record. Now, if you want to say she's the most corrupted person based on just innuendo than I will agree with you 100%.

I can probably come up with at least 5 names in politics that have actually being convicted of a crime and none include the Clintons.

[DMX7]

According to Its Guru, Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight’s Prediction Model Is Failing in the Clinton-Trump Race

Trump's path is precarious and not one other professional election handicapper records the seismic shift in Trump’s chances that FiveThirtyEight does.

http://www.alternet.org/fivethirtyeights-prediction-model-failing-clinton-trump-race-thats-according-its-guru-nate-silver


NY Times has Hillary at a 85% chance to win vs. Nate having her at 65% chance to win. That's a pretty big disconnect.

[Reck]

NY Times has Hillary at a 85% chance to win vs. Nate having her at 65% chance to win. That's a pretty big disconnect.

They're both wrong most likely. I think realistically, it's more in the 70-75 range.

Nate Silver doesn't cherry pick and adds all kinds of polls (Even skewed polls) into whatever he does to come up with his numbers. The NYT is probably doing the oposite. Cherry picking and not taking into account the aftermath of what happened last Friday.

[ducks]

Penn gravis poll clinton up just 2

[Reck]

Penn gravis poll clinton up just 2

Bro, stop pumping yourself up. Pennsylvania is not a player.

[florige]

Bro, stop pumping yourself up. Pennsylvania is not a player.


Early voting in Nevada and FL doesn't look promising for Trump at all.
Hispanics seem to be coming out in droves in NV.

[boutons_deux]

Early voting in Nevada and FL doesn't look promising for Trump at all.
Hispanics seem to be coming out in droves in NV.

Sam Stein
✔@samsteinhp (https://twitter.com/samsteinhp)

Mook predicts Trump will have to win Nevada by 10 points on Election Day in order to overcome early vote totals

[Reck]

Early voting in Nevada and FL doesn't look promising for Trump at all.
Hispanics seem to be coming out in droves in NV.

I saw that.

It seems like the dems have closed the gap in Florida in early voting. Republicans wear leading by like 3 percent or something 2 days ago. Now they're deadlocked.

Nevada was never in play. These networks are just desperate for ratings.

[florige]

Bro, stop pumping yourself up. Pennsylvania is not a player.

The pollsters and the media are going to make PA and MI players between now and Tuesday. Especially PA where they can poll 900 people in some rural area and pretend Trump is closing fast. Just like in 2012 they will be "tied" come Tuesday.

[Warlord23]

It'd be poetic justice if the Hispanic turnout in NV and FL sinks Trump - FL in particular is must-win for him

[boutons_deux]

Did somebody say FL?

Robby Mook: "NEW Coalition",

"We are up in FL by 170k",

Latino vote increased 130%,

AA turnout up 22% (http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/5/1591565/-Robby-Mook-NEW-Coalition-We-are-up-in-FL-by-170k-Latino-vote-increased-130-AA-turnout-up-22)


In a conference call with reporters, Clinton campaign manager Robbie Mook announced an early voting turnout record. At least 40% of voters in battleground states are turning out early.

In Florida, more registered Democrats than Republicans have turned out to vote early or by mail. The Clinton camp believes that they are winning Florida by 170,000 ballots. In North Carolina, there has been a 16% increase in early
voting, and in Nevada more than 40% early voted.

According to Mook, Clinton strategy has been to turn out voters who didn’t vote in previous elections.


Going hard after “low propensity voters” was a brilliant strategy that has paid dividends in Florida, Nevada and North Carolina.

The Clinton campaign manager also said that there had been no surge from the Trump campaign and his voters, so the Republican nominee is going to need to outperform Romney on Election Day in Florida, North Carolina, and Nevada to win.


http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/5/1591565/-Robby-Mook-NEW-Coalition-We-are-up-in-FL-by-170k-Latino-vote-increased-130-AA-turnout-up-22?detail=email&link_id=14&can_id=4217e8eb109c68bd0c2e4143dd2d8c15&source=email-a-disturbing-development-in-greene-county-mo&email_referrer=a-disturbing-development-in-greene-county-mo&email_subject=a-disturbing-development-in-greene-county-mo

[Reck]

That poor old man probably is on life support this morning had he'd been a Hillary supporter at a Trump rally.

Some protester just got beat up at a Trump rally just now.

[Spurminator]

Back on stage 2 minutes later. Must not have been much of an incident.

You'll still be hearing about it for the next 36 hours.

[florige]

Some protester just got beat up at a Trump rally just now.


Back on stage 2 minutes later. Must not have been much of an incident.

You'll still be hearing about it for the next 36 hours.



People are saying it was probably staged

[Reck]

People are saying it was probably staged

CNN is already out there stoking fear and propping up Trump saying there was a gun and how Trump handled this like a president. CNN the new Fox.

[Reck]

WTF is going on. Tim Kaine's motorcade involved in an accident.

[ducks]

BUMP

[HarlemHeat37]

https://media.giphy.com/media/b9QBHfcNpvqDK/giphy.gif

[spurraider21]

https://media.giphy.com/media/b9QBHfcNpvqDK/giphy.gif
:lol

[in2deep]

I saw that.

It seems like the dems have closed the gap in Florida in early voting. Republicans wear leading by like 3 percent or something 2 days ago. Now they're deadlocked.

Nevada was never in play. These networks are just desperate for ratings.

is this guy really this stupid?????

[spurraider21]

reck is basically literate ducks, just for the other party

[baseline bum]

Nate Silver is pretty clear why he's giving Trump better odds than most others: because a lot of Clinton's strength in the popular vote comes from red states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia that she has no hope of winning and that her firewall is pretty fragile. Silver knows rust belt states votes aren't independent from one another, so if Trump starts picking up steam in Michigan he probably will in Wisconsin and Ohio too. I hate the fucking electoral college. This wouldn't be a Buster Douglas beating Tyson level of upset to see that fat piece of shit win.

:pctoss

[Axl Rose]

Bro, stop pumping yourself up. Pennsylvania is not a player.
Lol this is fun, you're such a pompous dumbass

[Spurs 4 The Win]

Lol this is fun, you're such a pompous dumbass

You never have to see him here again :lol

[Axl Rose]

Obama did the same thing in the closing days.

Michigan or Pennsylvania aren't teh states she should be nervous of. It's places like New Hampshire and maybe Colorado.

In fact, Hillary's campaign is going to wrap up their campaign in places where she will win with certainty.
Lol so wrong, he wins mi and pa and loses co and maybe nh. So much self ownage, stick to basketball. Or just delete your account

[Axl Rose]

That's called protecting your firewall. Her average lead there is almost 5 points.

Oh and she just went up in Florida again. RCP has her average at 1.5 after being down the whole of this week.
Lol some firewall

[ducks]

Bro, stop pumping yourself up. Pennsylvania is not a player.

:lol

[Reck]

I congratulate you all.

Time to migrate up top to the NBA forum.

[Axl Rose]

Told y'all that D +10-15 samples were silly

[Axl Rose]

This country will never have a majority of dems because white conservatives have 3 kids on average (above replacement level) and low test beta cucks are scared to come in pussy and die out

[TheSanityAnnex]

I congratulate you all.

Time to migrate up top to the NBA forum.https://251d2191a60056d6ba74-1671eccf3a0275494885881efb0852a4.ssl.cf1.rackcdn.c om/12375992_pepe-the-frog-creator-is-using-positive_39cd97f6_m.png?bg=7C9A55 (http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi_7a-IjZzQAhXkzVQKHX6XD-sQjRwIBw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.notey.com%2Fblogs%2Ffrog&bvm=bv.138169073,d.cGw&psig=AFQjCNF9paB1UVf_H2JUiGMKGLghtOg35g&ust=1478795596938408)

[baseline bum]

Fuck me, she actually won the god damn popular vote.

[baseline bum]

Or I mean she is leading it. I guess it's not decided yet.

[DMC]

I congratulate you all.

Time to migrate up top to the NBA forum.

:lol

[DMC]

reck is basically literate ducks, just for the other party

:lol

[baseline bum]

Nice bump. LOL people giving Silver shit for showing Trump having a real chance to win it because those rust belt states weren't independent coin flips but more a highly correlated voting bloc.

[AaronY]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/

Nate Silver good then

[Spurtacular]

Nice bump. LOL people giving Silver shit for showing Trump having a real chance to win it because those rust belt states weren't independent coin flips but more a highly correlated voting bloc.

Bumped it up to 28 percent chance but not 'til after doing some submission vote propaganda on the TV circuit.

[ducks]

So...long story short..he needs a turnaround of 2.7 points and Hillary has a 3.3 point average lead. He'd still lose.

BTW who the fuck is Harry Enten? I dont trust anyone that's not Silver out of that site.
Lol reck