Clinton hanging on to an electoral lead by a thread in 538's polls+forecast

[baseline bum]

Silver is projecting 289 EV currently for Clinton in the polls+forecast model.

http://i.imgur.com/rWHSeWw.png

But that's not a 289EV map. It's a 273EV one.

http://i.imgur.com/IGDVHgB.png

If there is another BREXIT level minor polling error in the GOP's favor then New Hampshire is deciding the presidency if this map holds.

[ducks]

She better get the blacks out

[Spurminator]

Silver also pointed out earlier that polls do a terrible job of sampling the Hispanic vote, and Hispanics are coming out in droves in EV.

We'll see.

[spurraider21]

the lowest% blue state there is New Hampshire at 60.6%

among low% red states you have:

Nevada (50.4%)
North Carolina (53.7%)
Florida (53.3%)

[ducks]

Market Indicator Gives Trump An 86% Chance Of Winning The Election
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-04/market-indicator-gives-trump-86-chance-winning-election

[Spurminator]

Market Indicator Gives Trump An 86% Chance Of Winning The Election
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-04/market-indicator-gives-trump-86-chance-winning-election

Author: Tyler Durden

:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao:lmao :lmao:lmao:lmao

[MannyIsGod]

I'm a big fan, but Nate Silver's model is broken this time. Or if its not broken, its not equipped to handle this election. If Trump is really at the odds he's at on 538, then the prediction markets sure aren't buying it (neither am I). They are all substantially higher in price for a Clinton win than 538 is. The Upshot Group at the NY Times has odds that are much more favorable to Clinton but simply picking them because they have better odds would be confirmation bias.

Today there was a poll that showed Clinton as +18 in Virginia. The effect that poll had on the model? +1% to Trumps chances. How in the fuck does a poll that shows +18 to Clilnton in Virginia (which frankly is flat out wrong) move the needle in Trumps direction? There have been movements like this a lot lately. I know he has area corroleation and the trend lines matter A LOT in his model, but this just makes no sense. There have been a lot of instances where polls that do NOTHING to change the electoral map do a lot to move his model. Its possible he's just overthought things and made it too complicated this time around, but its also possible everyone else is wrong and he's right.

In any event, I think Silver's model is dead wrong on Florida, NC, and Nevada. I really feel as those states are going to go Blue easily because of their early voting numbers. In Florida and Nevada this is due to Hispanics. We'll see what the final margins are and how they compare with Silvers predictions, but I suspect this will be by far his worst presidential predictions.

[Spurminator]

Have we ever dissected Silver's numbers like this though? I can't remember if he had this kind of tracking in 2012. We're looking at percent chances of a victory, but ultimately he's going to predict whoever has the highest % for each state and the total electoral result.

I do think the unprecedented Hispanic vote this year is going to be the surprise vs. polls though.

[MannyIsGod]

He had state by state numbers in 2012 and 2008. The difference is that his model has gotten way more complex. So now national polls are effecting the race when state polls maybe saying something opposite. To put it simply, I think his model is too complex for its own good and now in a race where the polls have a pretty damn wide spread and more voting is happening early than ever before its going to hurt him. Statistically I'm sure most of the states will end up within his mode's MoE but I just don't buy that Clinton is only a 2:1 favorite in a race where she's probably 3:1 to win the most important state: Florida.

[cool cat]

VA, NH I think will go Trump. But i'm not sure he has FL locked down. If he doesn't get FL it's doesn't matter what else he flips.

[Nbadan]

I do think the unprecedented Hispanic vote this year is going to be the surprise vs. polls though.


:repost:

...One early poll says that 28% of GOP voters are voting Clinton, but the Hispanic vote will go heavy Clinton...

[Warlord23]

Silver's model assumes significant correlation between states. So if Hillary drops a point in MI, even though her MI margin might still be comfortable, he assumes that she is likely to drop in states like PA, OH, WI. The model also factors in trend lines. If her numbers show a gradual decline over a couple of weeks, the model amplifies this because of the negative trend.

Conversely, if things move positively for her, the model boosts her chances significantly. So it's got an inbuilt virtuous / vicious cycle effect.

In reality, I think it's less likely that people flip their choice from week to week based on new information. It is more likely that people's willingness to respond to polls goes up and down based on the news cycle. After Pussygate, a few Trump-leaners might have declined to answer a telephone or online poll. Similarly, after the FBI letter, less Dems would have been eager to respond to polls. Respondents marking themselves as "undecided" are likely turned off by the shit show, rather than waiting for something new to evaluate - I mean, how can you still be undecided about these 2 candidates after the amount of shit that's turned up?

I don't think the fundamentals of the race have changed as much as the polls indicate. I still think it's a Clinton + 3, 300 EVs type election.

[spurraider21]

its not that undecideds aren't familiar with the candidates by now. my assumption is that many of the undecideds dont really care much for policy/nuance but are literally voting for who they think its a better person, or some other stupid reasoning along the lines of the "who would you rather have a beer with" shit

anybody who actually has reasonably strong political views knew who they were voting for months ago

[MannyIsGod]

Silver went off on a twitter rant today directed at the author of an article on HuffPo that (probably a bit too unfairly) criticized him for his model's odds. Nate's never claimed his model did anything but predict based on the polls, so obviously he doesn't factor in early voting numbers or anything else of the sort. But i felt his tweets weren't totally honest either. For one, the idea that his model has a precision that makes reporting chances to the tenth of a percent is fucking laughable. Yet he does so, for entertainment purposes or whatever else drives his website traffic. Furthermore, he loves to talk about how his model is emperical and built off of evidence, but his model isn't public and it now does a lot more adjusting for variables as Warlord pointed out. While these items might be correlated, they're not perfectly understood and changes in the actual reasons driving the correlation might have changed since 2012 which alters the true statistical relationship and thus makes their use less appropriate. So saying that they're proven is fine but that doesn't mean that they're being used correctly for this election.

Still a fan, but Silver is passing himself off as way too above the board right now. There are plenty of people out there who have more statistical knowledge than Nate - Dr. Sam Wang for instance - and disagree.

[DMC]

its not that undecideds aren't familiar with the candidates by now. my assumption is that many of the undecideds dont really care much for policy/nuance but are literally voting for who they think its a better person, or some other stupid reasoning along the lines of the "who would you rather have a beer with" shit

anybody who actually has reasonably strong political views knew who they were voting for months ago

Actually I think a major swaying point is who do you want to see less on TV during your normally scheduled programming? Do you want to see Hillary giving the State of the Union address? Do you want to see her walking across the Whitehouse lawn getting onto Marine One and throwing out a cockeyed salute? Neither candidate gives good face. Donald is a sourpuss who I cannot even imagine being cordial or diplomatic, and Hillary wears "we are better than you" all over her face, a bit like GWB did.

[ElNono]

IIRC, Nate admits his model is quite conservative, and gives Trump better odds than most other models, tbh...

The comments about Hispanics makes sense too, they're 25% of the population in Nevada, and a huge chunk in Florida... their turnout has always been generally low, but if a decent amount does show up to vote (and I think this time around they do have an incentive to do that), then that will likely be the nail in the coffin for Donald, tbh...

[Winehole23]

http://www.270towin.com/maps/princeton-election-consortium-trump-outperforms-polls

[Dirk Oneanddoneski]

http://i.imgur.com/KiFP9rG.jpg

[Winehole23]

wishcasting?

[CosmicCowboy]

I think there will be a measurable percentage of undecideds that didn't want to admit they were voting for Trump.

[baseline bum]

I think there will be a measurable percentage of undecideds that didn't want to admit they were voting for Trump.

I imagine the same will hold for Clinton.

[Dirk Oneanddoneski]

http://i.imgur.com/fdWDlGs.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/2JzJzC9.jpg

[Winehole23]

cherry-picked?

[Winehole23]

where do you get your info, Dirk?

[Will Hunting]

If there is another BREXIT level minor polling error in the GOP's favor then New Hampshire is deciding the presidency if this map holds.

I think that map is correct on every state with the exception of Nevada and New Hampshire. All of the early voting data says Clinton has a huge edge there and Silver admits that that isn't being factored in, while the polling shows Trump has all the momentum is that NH.

NC and FL are close but I think the black vote has a lackluster enough turnout to give both states to Trump (early voting shows this is definitely the case in NC). Only thing that might change Florida is if the Cuban vote randomly swings left which isn't likely to happen.

IMO the race comes down to whether or not Clinton holds PA. That's a state that could have a lot of silent Trump supporters because of his views on trade while it also has an energized base in central PA.

[Warlord23]

The only poll that deplorables like Dirk care to cite is the LA Times one which draws it's sample from the same pool of voters. If you read Drudge and Breitbart, they're all but declaring a Trump victory. 4 years ago it was "Romney in a landslide". The conservative entertainment complex is once again doing its best to construct an alternate reality that the goobers are swallowing hook, line and sinker.

Post #18 showing a single digit Hispanic margin is the most delusional fantasy by far. In reality, Trump will lose Hispanics by 40 points or so. It's gonna be fun reading the excuses and whining on Nov 9.

[Dirk Oneanddoneski]

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

[Splits]

While Silver's model isn't completely transparent, he's pretty elaborate on why it is much less bullish on Clinton.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

The most persuasive argument, to me at least, is that there are still 13% claiming 3rd party/undecided whereas 4 years ago that number was 3%

[ducks]

Political Polls
‏@PpollingNumbers
CBS/YouGov Poll,
Among Those Who Plan Voting On Election Day:

Ohio:
Trump 49 (+8)
Clinton 41

Florida:
Trump 51 (+16)
Clinton 35

[Winehole23]

a single internet poll?

[Spurminator]

Meanwhile, the Senate forecast is now 50/50 on 538.

[Reck]

Nate Silver is melting down.

Nevada is already a done deal for the dems.

Florida also looks good if you go by Early voting. This hasn't been a good election cycle for him.

[CosmicCowboy]

Funny how Reck suddenly, after weeks of trumpeting 538 results doesn't believe Silver when he doesn't agree with Recks preconceptions.

[Reck]

Funny how Reck suddenly, after weeks of trumpeting 538 results doesn't believe Silver when he doesn't agree with Recks preconceptions.

Did I say I didn't believe him, you fucktard?

He is overreacting..which happens. Doesn't mean I still dont think he's the best at this stuff.

I'm seeing how things are shaping up in Nevada and Florida real time. In Nevada the dems have something like 70k vote lead as of Friday

In Nevada, Latino turnout propelled Democrats in Clark County — the population center that's home to Las Vegas — to a record-breaking close on Friday, driving up the Democratic lead in early ballots cast to 72,000. That's enough, according to veteran Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston, to essentially tie a bow on the state for Clinton.


Four years earlier, when President Barack Obama won the state by 7 points, Democrats led Clark County in ballots cast by 71,000 at the end of early voting in 2012.

You can do the math. If dems already lead in Nevada by 72k and back in 2012 Obama won there early voting by 71k. What does that tell you?




In Florida, hispanic voting turnout is at 100% and the dems have taken a slim lead there as of yesterday.

This isn't factored in on his model.

[boutons_deux]

Trump Limps Toward Defeat As GOP Pollsters Say Hillary Clinton Will Get At Least 304 EVs

Even Republican pollsters are projecting that Hillary Clinton will win well above the needed 270 electoral college votes to win the White House.

The Republican pollsters all seem to think that Hillary Clinton is going to win Florida.

Only one of the three pollsters Harwood spoke to believed that she would lose NC.

My own Politicus Presidential projection map (http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/05/politicus-presidential-projection-map-november-5-2016.html) aligns more with the latter two Republican pollsters.

I think

Clinton is going to finish with either 322 or 323 electoral college votes

as the most likely outcome.

Harwood also tweeted that Clinton may be in the process of tipping Ohio:

If Hillary Clinton wins Ohio, the rout is on.

The fact that Republican pollsters aren’t disputing the likely outcome of the presidential election speaks volumes about the presidential race.

The Clinton campaign has done an amazing job with early voting and may have locked down victories in Nevada, Florida, and North Carolina before election day.Hillary Clinton is almost to the finish line.

It is up to Democratic voters to come out on Tuesday to help her win the race.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/06/trump-limps-defeat-gop-pollsters-hillary-clinton-304-evs.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+politicususa%2FfJAl+%28Politi cus+USA+%29

[boutons_deux]

NBC-Wall Street Journal poll has Clinton leading Trump by four points

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-nbc-idUSKBN1310QC?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Reuters%2FPoliticsNews+%28Reu ters+Politics+News%29

[boutons_deux]

Three Poll Averages, Three Slightly Different Forecasts

Pollster model shows a very steady race, with just a little tightening but no real trend for either candidate. (aka "stability")

Upshot and 538 both show significant tightening, but with Hillary Clinton still in a solid lead with only 48 hours to go.
Who's right? We'll probably never know.

If Clinton wins by, say, four points, all three will most likely be able to say they were within a point of the final number.

On the other hand, if Clinton wins by six points, then Pollster was clearly closer than the other two.

If she wins by one point, then the Upshot was closest.

Exciting, isn't it?
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/11/three-poll-averages-three-slightly-different-forecasts

[boutons_deux]

Why FiveThirtyEight’s Prediction Model May Be Inflating Trump’s Chances

the wild swings toward Trump are more a sign that an orange-furred monkey wrench has jammed FiveThirtyEight's soothsaying machine than a candidate who is detested by nearly 60 percent (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president/clintontrumpfavorability.html) of voters is suddenly floating to the top of the 2016 shitshow.

Trump can win and possible hacking of the electoral process increase unpredictability, but his path is still precarious and

not one (http://election.princeton.edu/) other (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/) professional (http://cookpolitical.com/) election (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html) handicapper (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/forecast/president) records the seismic shift in Trump's chances that FiveThirtyEight does.

To Silver's credit, he's cast doubts on his poll-based forecasting this year.

it's likely Comey's ill-advised letter about Clinton's emails has depressed pro-Clinton respondents in polling more than it will at the voting booth.

it's worth keeping in mind reasons why a Clinton victory is likelier than Silver's model predicts.

http://www.nationalmemo.com/why-fivethirtyeights-prediction-model-may-be-inflating-trumps-chances/

[SnakeBoy]

Funny how Reck suddenly, after weeks of trumpeting 538 results doesn't believe Silver when he doesn't agree with Recks preconceptions.

[Reck]

^LOL both avoiding my response post. :lol

[spurraider21]

I think he's the best at what he does but let me explain how he's wrong. Lol

[Reck]

I think he's the best at what he does but let me explain how he's wrong. Lol

On Tuesday I will be bumping these posts. See you then.

[boutons_deux]

Hillary Clinton Holds The Lead In Final Polls As Undecided Voters Don’t Go For Trump

Both the NBC/WSJ and Politico/Morning Consult final national polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by at least 3 points.

The worse news for Trump is that undecided voters are not breaking his direction.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/06/hillary-clinton-holds-lead-final-polls-undecided-voters-trump.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+politicususa%2FfJAl+%28Politi cus+USA+%29

[ducks]

She is one state away from lossing

[Will Hunting]

Comey just came out and cleared Clinton...

[boutons_deux]

Comey just came out and cleared Clinton...

where?

[Will Hunting]

where?

It's breaking news, just announced.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Silver went off on a twitter rant today directed at the author of an article on HuffPo that (probably a bit too unfairly) criticized him for his model's odds. Nate's never claimed his model did anything but predict based on the polls, so obviously he doesn't factor in early voting numbers or anything else of the sort. But i felt his tweets weren't totally honest either. For one, the idea that his model has a precision that makes reporting chances to the tenth of a percent is fucking laughable. Yet he does so, for entertainment purposes or whatever else drives his website traffic. Furthermore, he loves to talk about how his model is emperical and built off of evidence, but his model isn't public and it now does a lot more adjusting for variables as Warlord pointed out. While these items might be correlated, they're not perfectly understood and changes in the actual reasons driving the correlation might have changed since 2012 which alters the true statistical relationship and thus makes their use less appropriate. So saying that they're proven is fine but that doesn't mean that they're being used correctly for this election.

Still a fan, but Silver is passing himself off as way too above the board right now. There are plenty of people out there who have more statistical knowledge than Nate - Dr. Sam Wang for instance - and disagree.

Sorry but just because he adjusts for bias and similar tactics doesn't mean it is not done empirically. That is the entire point of normalizations and similar techniques. Basically what you are doing here is a similar argument that climate deniers use in "we don't know what's in the model and they adjust the numbers." It's garbage to wishcast through incredulity.

I think the issue is that the drivers are different specifically Trump in how people are choosing to vote which is the base mechanic in all of this. The alt right now has a franchise and similarly latin americans have a real reason to vote. That plus the end of the boomer hegemony and you have what you have.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

She is one state away from lossing

And is up by 10 or so in each of them. Meanwhile NC, NV, etc are more or less coinflips that you are counting on.

[Winehole23]

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/11/06/500929164/comey-we-have-not-changed-our-conclusions-as-fbi-finishes-clinton-email-review

[ducks]

where?

get off very liberal sites you might find it

[ducks]

And is up by 10 or so in each of them. Meanwhile NC, NV, etc are more or less coinflips that you are counting on.

lol she is up 1 in must win 3-5 states for her firewall

[boutons_deux]

And is up by 10 or so in each of them. Meanwhile NC, NV, etc are more or less coinflips that you are counting on.


NV ain't a coin flip. Latinos, many first time voters, going huge for Hillary, and Repugs lose probably a Senator and 2 Reps. Thank, Donny T!

[Reck]

lol she is up 1 in must win 3-5 states for her firewall

Try english.

[ducks]

Cause and effect definitely *not* totally clear, but Clinton went from 81% in our forecast pre-Comey letter to 65% now.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Ese rp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

[ducks]

Try english.
Here's what happens if the national popular vote pulls within 2 points. Very shaky map for Clinton with *5* must-win states within 1 point
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwN0mVkWcAI0ChN.jpg

[Winehole23]

Cause and effect definitely *not* totally clear, but Clinton went from 81% in our forecast pre-Comey letter to 65% now.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Ese rp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthoryep. damage is done.

[Axl Rose]

Nate Silver is melting down.

Nevada is already a done deal for the dems.

Florida also looks good if you go by Early voting. This hasn't been a good election cycle for him.

How does Florida look good? Obama was up 250k after early voting and ended up winning the state by 70k, Hillary is up by a hair and probably not at all factoring in independents and whatever lead she may or may not have won't be enough

[Reck]

How does Florida look good? Obama was up 250k after early voting and ended up winning the state by 70k, Hillary is up by a hair and probably not at all factoring in independents and whatever lead she may or may not have won't be enough

Because of the fact that not 2 days ago dems were down 3 percent?

It's over if the Latino vote turns out in full. Period

[ducks]

It is over if all white vote 25 million did not vote last time Obama won by 5 million

[Axl Rose]

Because of the fact that not 2 days ago dems were down 3 percent?

It's over if the Latino vote turns out in full. Period
You realize Cubans aren't California be@ners right? She will need more than a hairs width advantage to win Florida, it's always been this way. You post like you have a small penis

[Reck]

You realize Cubans aren't California be@ners right? She will need more than a hairs width advantage to win Florida, it's always been this way. You post like you have a small penis

I post like this is my main account, pussy.

Why dont you come out of hiding?

I know it's difficult for you. Hasn't been a good 24 hours for you.

[Axl Rose]

Whatever baby boy, trump wins Florida you leave, trump loses Florida I reveal my main and quit both, deal?

[MannyIsGod]

Fuzzy, what physics is Silver's model built on? Silvers trend line and state by state adjustments are built on pure statistical correlations between those variables. That isn't what has driven those relationships. For instance, PA and OH are linked historically because of their similar demographic makeups. However, if this changes, then the correlation changes as well. You can't just say that they stay the same and still use them in your model. If the model were built upon the demographics as opposed to the historical relationship then it would be more robust to changes. Second of all, Climate Models are publilc. They're available for all to view and understand the underlying physics that go into them. Its a valid critique of someone touting how great their PRIVATE FOR PROFIT model is to point out that we don't know whats in it.

Your comparison to climate deniers is extremely superficial and lacks merit if you dig even a tiny bit into what my points were.

Your final point hits the nail on the head. But if Silver's model is based on simple statistical relationships of a changing environment then its increasingly less valid. Especially when the polls themselves are getting worse. Its still the best prediciton method, but Silver should understand these caveats better than most which is why his childish rant yesterday is ridiculous. His ego has gotten the better of him and I suspect that this election will see his model perform worse than either of the last two.

[MannyIsGod]

To be clear, I don't have a problem with Silver's methods. I don't think they are arbitrary and I think he has statistical reasoning for it. But I also think they're wrong in many instance; none more so than Nevada. This is because we have further information that shows that. Prediction markets who have factored this in show Clinton at about an 8.5:1 favorite while Silver essentially shows a 1:1 race in Nevada. He also rarely tallks about how poorly Latinos are being sampled by polls this year. And unlike the GOP unskewing talk of 2012, there is a lot of obvious evidence that this is the case.

[pgardn]

Nothing is easy when you deal with people and their inclinations. The guy has done a good job in the past AND got lucky.

[CosmicCowboy]

Whatever baby boy, trump wins Florida you leave, trump loses Florida I reveal my main and quit both, deal?

No point making a bet with Reck. He will just welch on it.

[Reck]

No point making a bet with Reck. He will just welch on it.

I only make bets with outstanding members.

[ducks]

Ouch in pen
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/P

[DarrinS]

Ouch in pen
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/P

Page not found

[ducks]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/

[DarrinS]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/

I'm pretty sure Philly is no danger of voting Trump. :lol

[Spurminator]

:cheer http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/ :cheer

[TeyshaBlue]

I only make bets with outstanding members.

Pre-emptive welsh. Impressive! :lol

[Will Hunting]

I'm pretty sure Philly is no danger of voting Trump. :lol

It's not about that, it's about Philly not providing enough votes to cushion Clinton against the rest of the state that's predominantly red.

[Reck]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-transit-strike-in-philly-could-lower-turnout-among-black-and-poor-voters/

How shitty of a candidate do you have to be to be hoping that this is the stuff you wish to happen so the other person doesn't win?

[ducks]

Who is wishing it?

[baseline bum]

Who is wishing it?

You're not?

[Reck]

So Nate put her chances of winning at barely 60% yesterday and today she's almost at 70%. Why the quick turnaround?

[Reck]

BTW baseline bum Nate has flipped Nevada, North Carolina and Florida all back leaning blue in all 3 forecasts.

[florige]

So Nate put her chances of winning at barely 60% yesterday and today she's almost at 70%. Why the quick turnaround?


Scumbag Comney announcement Hillary emails nothing there maybe?

[baseline bum]

BTW baseline bum Nate has flipped Nevada, North Carolina and Florida all back leaning blue in all 3 forecasts.

Good to see Clinton rebounding there in his model, but fuck, now he's got New Hampshire going for Ayotte. What's Silver's record like in handicapping state races? Betting markets seem to have Hassan as a slight favorite while Silver has Ayotte as one.

[Reck]

Good to see Clinton rebounding there in his model, but fuck, now he's got New Hampshire going for Ayotte. What's Silver's record like in handicapping state races? Betting markets seem to have Hassan as a slight favorite while Silver has Ayotte as one.

Man, I dont know. Nate has been panicky with his forecast lately. All over the place.

But most predictions from different election forecasters give Hassan the slight edge.

http://i64.tinypic.com/256usgh.jpg

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/senate-election-forecast.html

[MannyIsGod]

Those states haven't really "flipped". Silver's model may give you a percentage down to a tenth of a point, but it doesn't actually have that precision. A state race that is 51-49% is basically no different than 50-50, or 1:1. A tossup in the model. Especially with the sigma bars around the percentages. The model is essentially saying the same thing it has all weekend with the presidential race.

The senate races are much more volatile. Sadly the Hispanic vote can't help in many of those cases except Nevada. In Florida, Marco Rubio does much better with Latino voters than Trump, so its unlikely to sink him there. The senate races and the state prop votes will be the real things to watch tomorrow. I will be exceptionally dissapointed if the GOP holds onto the senate.

[Axl Rose]

BTW baseline bum (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=131) Nate has flipped Nevada, North Carolina and Florida all back leaning blue in all 3 forecasts.
Polls no longer matter, trump outperforming Romney in those states by 100s of thousands of votes

[florige]

Polls no longer matter, trump outperforming Romney in those states by 100s of thousands of votes




Gotcha:tu:tu

[Axl Rose]

You think polls matter more than the actual votes coming in?

[HarlemHeat37]

I dropped $2500 on Hillary @-325 on Friday morning, tbh..the number went up dramatically on Saturday night to about -575..massive jump..

I expect it'll be -650 by tomorrow IMO..

[Warlord23]

Polls no longer matter, trump outperforming Romney in those states by 100s of thousands of votes

Do stick around on the forum for the next couple of days, old sport. And keep guns and sharp objects locked up before they start announcing the results.

[florige]

You think polls matter more than the actual votes coming in?



Idk maybe Trump will pull the impossible and shock the world and prove all polling is not right. The polls the night before the election are usually the only ones that I've ever seen hold true.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

Fuzzy, what physics is Silver's model built on? Silvers trend line and state by state adjustments are built on pure statistical correlations between those variables. That isn't what has driven those relationships. For instance, PA and OH are linked historically because of their similar demographic makeups. However, if this changes, then the correlation changes as well. You can't just say that they stay the same and still use them in your model. If the model were built upon the demographics as opposed to the historical relationship then it would be more robust to changes. Second of all, Climate Models are publilc. They're available for all to view and understand the underlying physics that go into them. Its a valid critique of someone touting how great their PRIVATE FOR PROFIT model is to point out that we don't know whats in it.

Your comparison to climate deniers is extremely superficial and lacks merit if you dig even a tiny bit into what my points were.

Your final point hits the nail on the head. But if Silver's model is based on simple statistical relationships of a changing environment then its increasingly less valid. Especially when the polls themselves are getting worse. Its still the best prediciton method, but Silver should understand these caveats better than most which is why his childish rant yesterday is ridiculous. His ego has gotten the better of him and I suspect that this election will see his model perform worse than either of the last two.


To be clear, I don't have a problem with Silver's methods. I don't think they are arbitrary and I think he has statistical reasoning for it. But I also think they're wrong in many instance; none more so than Nevada. This is because we have further information that shows that. Prediction markets who have factored this in show Clinton at about an 8.5:1 favorite while Silver essentially shows a 1:1 race in Nevada. He also rarely tallks about how poorly Latinos are being sampled by polls this year. And unlike the GOP unskewing talk of 2012, there is a lot of obvious evidence that this is the case.

Then you have no problem saying that his approach is empirical.

I think the word you are looking for is mechanics and I agree with you that his approach doesn't appear to be comprehensive but what he does have is clearly empirical. Overall I don't think we are not in accord. We both have presented plausible and testable hypothesis as to what he is not considering. I have been crowing that the electorate has been at a tipping point for some time with the end of the boomer hegemony after all.

That being said, don't feign certainty where none exists. It could be that he is right and we are wrong.

[Splits]

Good to see Clinton rebounding there in his model, but fuck, now he's got New Hampshire going for Ayotte. What's Silver's record like in handicapping state races? Betting markets seem to have Hassan as a slight favorite while Silver has Ayotte as one.

In 2008 he predicted 50/51 Pres states and every Senate race correctly.

In 2012 he predicted 51/51 Pres states correctly, but don't recall the Senate. I think he had 2 misses (ND and some other shitty state out West).

[CosmicCowboy]

margin of error is margin of error.

[Reck]

margin of error is margin of error.

The race is not within margin of error. The fuck are you talking about?

[CosmicCowboy]

The race is not within margin of error. The fuck are you talking about?

From 538


Even at the end of the campaign, the polls probably won’t perfectly predict the results. Polls get more accurate as Election Day approaches, but even on the eve of voting they’re not perfect. Everyone talks about the margin of sampling error — the error introduced by not surveying every voter. But polls are also subject to all kinds of other errors, none of which disappear as we get closer to the election. The average presidential poll within the final 21 days of the election has been off by 3.6 percentage points since 2000.

[FuzzyLumpkins]

From 538

That is him describing why there is a margin of error and not that it is within the margin of error.

[baseline bum]

Nice, the transit strike in Philly is over.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

still thinking HRC 279-259 stay tuned

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I dropped $2500 on Hillary @-325 on Friday morning, tbh..the number went up dramatically on Saturday night to about -575..massive jump..

I expect it'll be -650 by tomorrow IMO..

your ROI is what, like a few hundred bucks, if that? Maybe you should have bet $50k with the Koch brothers.

[Reck]

Nice, the transit strike in Philly is over.

:cry ducks :cry

[UNT Eagles 2016]

:cry ducks :cry

It doesn't matter. PA was never going for Trump. Sure the coal miners will, but they have wives too, and the wives are women and somewhere along the line are proud of womanhood and want a president who respects women... they're never going to ADMIT to their husband they voted Hillary, but it's going to be funny in those coal mines on Wednesday when all the drunk shaggy guys are screaming to each other "Naaaaaow whoooo the fuck voted for that lying bi-..."

[FuzzyLumpkins]

It doesn't matter. PA was never going for Trump. Sure the coal miners will, but they have wives too, and the wives are women and somewhere along the line are proud of womanhood and want a president who respects women... they're never going to ADMIT to their husband they voted Hillary, but it's going to be funny in those coal mines on Wednesday when all the drunk shaggy guys are screaming to each other "Naaaaaow whoooo the fuck voted for that lying bi-..."

Watching you demonstrate your illusions about population dynamics is amusing.

[ducks]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Zia_Poll_NM_November.pdf
new mexico Clinton up just 2?

[TheSanityAnnex]

BTW baseline bum (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=131) Nate has flipped Nevada, North Carolina and Florida all back leaning blue in all 3 forecasts.And 4 hours later Trump up in all three states.

Florida Trump +.2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html


North Carolina Trump +1.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Nevada Trump +1.5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

[Reck]

And 4 hours later Trump up in all three states.

Florida Trump +.2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5963.html


North Carolina Trump +1.0

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nc/north_carolina_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-5951.html

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html


Nevada Trump +1.5

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html

Lots of right leaning pollsters coming out of the woodwork to boost his chances.

The early voting results just doesn't bare any of that out. Specially in Nevada.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

Lots of right leaning pollsters coming out of the woodwork to boost his chances.

The early voting results just doesn't bare any of that out. Specially in Nevada.
Colorado has an EV advantage for Donald Duck, so there's that.

[TheSanityAnnex]

Lots of right leaning pollsters coming out of the woodwork to boost his chances.

The early voting results just doesn't bare any of that out. Specially in Nevada.

(CNN)The political consensus is virtually unanimous: If Hillary Clinton wins North Carolina, Donald Trump has to win every other competitive state to take the White House.Clinton has other paths to victory without North Carolina, but the state has been a focus for Democrats this cycle. She has led in most public opinion polling there since the summer. Just 12 days ago, a New York Times poll had her leading by 7 points, and the CNN poll of polls currently has her ahead by 4 points.





But a CNN analysis of early voting paints a very different picture and suggests that Clinton has underperformed President Obama's 2012 performance in the Tar Heel State and Trump has outperformed Mitt Romney.

It might seem that Democrats have built up a big early lead. More than 1.3 million Democrats have already voted compared to 990,000 Republicans.
But the raw numbers don't account for the 2012 results. President Barack Obama built an early lead then but got trounced by Mitt Romney on Election Day.

As of Saturday, the final day of early voting, slightly fewer Democrats had cast ballots while 125,000 more Republicans have voted this time. If this election shapes up like the last, Donald Trump would win North Carolina.
There is one key difference that complicates the data: Independent voters came out this time in droves. They cast nearly 810,000 votes, up a whopping 42% from 2012.

This group broke heavily for Romney in 2012. However, he was a more traditional Republican. Romney himself has been one of Trump's harshest critics, saying last spring "Donald Trump is a phony, a fraud."
One difference this election is the popularity of a third-party candidate, Libertarian Gary Johnson. The CNN poll of polls show him garnering 5% support among likely voters.
Other early voting trends favor Trump. While polls show Clinton has a commanding lead among African Americans, the share of black votes so far is down 5 percentage points. Trump does much better with white voters, who increased their share by 3% this election.

Another group that failed to show up was 20-something Democrats. The North Carolina Board of Elections releases data on each voter. CNN compared registered voters who voted early in both 2012 and 2016.
One third of Democrats age 22 to 29 who voted in 2012 failed to show up this time. By comparison, turnout of Democrats age 50 and older exceeded 90%.
Twenty-something Republicans were more enthusiastic. Nearly three quarters of them who voted early in 2012 showed up again this election.

[Reck]

Colorado has an EV advantage for Donald Duck, so there's that.

I saw an early limited voting results in PA that had Trump with a 9 point lead last night on MSNBC.

These states, I have zero doubt won't go red.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I saw an early limited voting results in PA that had Trump with a 9 point lead last night on MSNBC.

These states, I have zero doubt won't go red.
As I said before, those coal miners have wives too, and some may have kids in college or beyond. The coal miner might thus be the only Trump vote in his own family.


One thing I think this election will shatter an all-time record for: wives voting against the will of their own husbands.

[CosmicCowboy]

I know more women that are hard core Trump supporters than men.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

I know more women that are hard core Trump supporters than men.

I know a few too, obviously excluding the little old ladies. The younger "Trump Girls" are all girlfriends/wives of bikers, lorry drivers, and tow-truck wreckers. These girls normally have 20 tattoos, wear all black, and get around in a motorcycle. Ehh.

[UNT Eagles 2016]

One thing I can be sure of: Trump will win the motorcycle vote 90/10+, and HRC will win the dead vote 90/10+. But those are smallish demographics.

[CosmicCowboy]

I know a few too, obviously excluding the little old ladies. The younger "Trump Girls" are all girlfriends/wives of bikers, lorry drivers, and tow-truck wreckers. These girls normally have 20 tattoos, wear all black, and get around in a motorcycle. Ehh.

Guess it reflects the demographic group you hang with. The ones I know are all upper middle class normals.

[Warlord23]

So Nate Silver at this moment is projecting FL, NC, NV and NH as light blue, although his margins for FL and NC are 0.5%

The funniest (and most predictable) poll is Rasmussen which quietly went from Trump+1 10 days ago to Clinton+2 today. They pull this every time, fluffing the R candidate for weeks and then showing a D lead right at the end to maintain their reputation.

[ducks]

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/11/07/final-ish-map-of-rcp-state-averages-has-trump-on-brink-of-270-electoral-votes/
266-272

[Reck]

Quit doing this to yourself ducks. :lol

[ducks]

ONLINE BATTLEGROUND: Trump beating Clinton in Google searches
http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2016/11/07/election-2016-trump-beating-clinton-in-google-searches.html

[florige]

Quit doing this to yourself ducks. :lol


If I didn't know how these pollsters and networks collaborate with each other for hits and ratings those PA and MI polls would draw a eyebrow from me.

[ElNono]

https://electionbettingodds.com/

[ducks]

damm should drop 10k on trump

[pgardn]

ONLINE BATTLEGROUND: Trump beating Clinton in Google searches
http://www.foxnews.com/tech/2016/11/07/election-2016-trump-beating-clinton-in-google-searches.html

Desperation sets in.

Is that water I see up ahead, a pond maybe?
Upon arriving at the salt flats, the duck turned and fell dead.

[ducks]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwstrB_WgAAGQih.jpg:large

[Axl Rose]

Final count

http://www.270towin.com/presidential_map_new/maps/DO8gp.png

[Reck]

:lmao

[Axl Rose]

Public transit shut down, dindus in Philly ain't turning out. Good game cuck

[baseline bum]

Public transit shut down, dindus in Philly ain't turning out. Good game cuck

LOL strike is over

[pgardn]

Public transit shut down, dindus in Philly ain't turning out. Good game cuck

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2016/11/07/philadelphia-transit-strike-ends-union-septa-reach-deal-reports-say/93412510/

[Warlord23]

So I'm guessing this Axl Rose character is a Deadly Dynasty alt?

[baseline bum]

So I'm guessing this Axl Rose character is a Deadly Dynasty alt?

Nah DD is pretty funny, it's m>s.

[Warlord23]

Nah DD is pretty funny, it's m>s.

That makes more sense. I thought m>s had only the Dirk Oneanddoneski alt

[Reck]

Nah DD is pretty funny, it's m>s.

LOL the quest for cock foreskin continues. :lol

[Axl Rose]

Not m>s

but fuck. Still doesn't change the fact that you all are sitting around like cucks hoping the blacks will do the job for you.

[ElNono]

Nah DD is pretty funny, it's m>s.

bingo

[Reck]

Philly is lit tonight. Ya'll seeing this shit?

[Reck]

For ducks since he likes to post shit like this. For you baby girl.
http://www.trbimg.com/img-58212403/turbine/la-awigglesworth-1478566933-snap-photo/750/750x422

[florige]

Philly is lit tonight. Ya'll seeing this shit?



But but nobody never shows up for her rally's tho. Lol

[MannyIsGod]

Then you have no problem saying that his approach is empirical.

I think the word you are looking for is mechanics and I agree with you that his approach doesn't appear to be comprehensive but what he does have is clearly empirical. Overall I don't think we are not in accord. We both have presented plausible and testable hypothesis as to what he is not considering. I have been crowing that the electorate has been at a tipping point for some time with the end of the boomer hegemony after all.

That being said, don't feign certainty where none exists. It could be that he is right and we are wrong.

I never said it wasn't empirical?

[boutons_deux]

2016’s Election Data Hero Isn’t Nate Silver. It’s Sam Wang

https://www.wired.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/ElectoralCollegeMap_IL-1024x767.jpgWhen the smoke clears on Tuesday—and it will clear—what will emerge is Wang and his Princeton Election Consortium (http://election.princeton.edu/) website and calculations (which have been used, in part, to drive some of the election poll conclusions at The New York Times’Upshot blog (http://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot)and The Huffington Post’s election site (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster)).

What will be vindicated is precisely the sort of math approach that Silver once rode to fame and fortune.

Wang says his method differs from Silver’s in its approach to uncertainty.

This year, Wang called the election (https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/788544053059153924) at 8:55 PM on October 18. He promised to eat more than just his hat if Clinton loses:

“It is totally over. If Trump wins more than 240 electoral votes, I will eat a bug,”

Wang tweeted to his 23,000 followers.

He expects Clinton to receive at least 298 electoral votes.

Wang has been the intrepid election data explorer furthest out this election cycle, never once wavering from his certainty of a Clinton win. The only real uncertainty left on Tuesday, he said, is how many people show up to vote. But even that doesn’t change the presidential election outcome.

“Pollsters have pretty good judgment, but their average estimate of who will vote may be off,” Wang told me. “To account for this, the snapshot gets converted to a Meta-Margin, which is defined as how far all polls would have to move, in the same direction, to create a perfect toss-up. To turn the Meta-margin into a win probability, the final step is to estimate how likely it is that the Meta-Margin is so far off that the other candidate is favored.”

Even if you factor this voting uncertainty into his election model by 5 percent—which is an unprecedented level historically, Wang says—Clinton still wins.

https://www.wired.com/2016/11/2016s-election-data-hero-isnt-nate-silver-sam-wang/

[DarrinS]

For ducks since he likes to post shit like this. For you baby girl.
http://www.trbimg.com/img-58212403/turbine/la-awigglesworth-1478566933-snap-photo/750/750x422


Concerts draw crowds? Who knew?

I hear occasional booing. :lol

[Reck]

Concerts draw crowds? Who knew?

I hear occasional booing. :lol

Then clean your ears dude. The president is speaking.

[DarrinS]

Then clean your ears dude. The president is speaking.

Did all those people show up to hear Hillary? :lol

[TheSanityAnnex]

Did all those people show up to hear Hillary? :lol
Of course. Just like all the people who showed up to hear Hillary speak and were surprised to see a bonus concert of Jay Z and Beyoncé.

[DarrinS]

The first Hillary rally I can reacall this year where the camera actually looks at the crowd. :lol

[Reck]

^The butthurt is real. :cry

[DarrinS]

This corrupt hag is your next president -- so inspiring.

[DarrinS]

^The butthurt is real. :cry

It is sad that we have to choose between two shitty candidates.

[Reck]

This corrupt hag is your next president -- so inspiring.

What I cant wrap my head around more is that she's not winning by more. It will be relatively close. Within 50-60 EVs.

[DarrinS]

CNN and MSNBC forgoing their usual shows just to livestream the Philly event in its entirety.

[DarrinS]

What I cant wrap my head around more is that she's not winning by more. It will be relatively close. Within 50-60 EVs.

Says a lot. People don't like her. The only thing that helps her is an even more hated candidate on the other side.

[DarrinS]

Oh well, back to MNF.

[boutons_deux]

The first Hillary rally I can reacall this year where the camera actually looks at the crowd. :lol

conned sucker

Trash has been feuding with Katy Tur about not showing Trash's crowds, but Katy bitch-slapped him by showing ALL the pics of his crowds that have been shown for months.

[boutons_deux]

Texas Early Voting--Final Numbers (http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/11/7/1592455/-Texas-Early-Voting-Final-Numbers)



2008
2012
2016







Total Votes (ev & mail in)
3,556,156
3,407,497
4,497,431





http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/11/7/1592455/-Texas-Early-Voting-Final-Numbers?detail=email&link_id=1&can_id=4217e8eb109c68bd0c2e4143dd2d8c15&source=email-texas-early-voting-final-numbers&email_referrer=texas-early-voting-final-numbers&email_subject=texas-early-voting-final-numbers

so, Texians out to vote against Hillary and/or for Trump?

Or Latinos and Black voting against Trump?

[Chinook]

Thinking it's just more convenient. I voted on election day in Philly, but there's no way I'd do that here.

[da_suns_fan]

This corrupt hag is your next president -- so inspiring.

What other choice did we have?

[Axl Rose]

I saw an early limited voting results in PA that had Trump with a 9 point lead last night on MSNBC.

These states, I have zero doubt won't go red.

wrong again on pa

[Axl Rose]

On Tuesday I will be bumping these posts. See you then.
Bump away

[Spurs 4 The Win]

Bump away

Actually, he wont, he bet me he would never post again in the political forum if Trump wins. So you never have to hear from him again.

[baseline bum]

What was the polling off by, about 5 points?

[Spurs 4 The Win]

What was the polling off by, about 5 points?

IBD pretty much nailed it.

State polls were way off, he swung 10 points in Wisconsin, 7 points in Michigan, 7 in Penn, 7 in Iowa, 8 in Ohio, and even kept Minnesota really close after a large loss was predicted.

[Axl Rose]

Actually, he wont, he bet me he would never post again in the political forum if Trump wins. So you never have to hear from him again.
He's a welching cuck, don't hold your breath

[benfti]

One behalf of the rest of the world, America, You are a pack of dipshits

[baseline bum]

One behalf of the rest of the world, America, You are a pack of dipshits

Yeah we suck. Fuck the US.

[Axl Rose]

One behalf of the rest of the world, America, You are a pack of dipshits
Eh fuck off

[benfti]

Eh fuck off you do realise the rest of the free world is now referring to America as Dumbfuckistan?

[Axl Rose]

you do realise the rest of the free world is now referring to America as Dumbfuckistan?
I don't really give a damn what the cucks of the not free world do, European lapdogs are already walking back and groveling at trumps feet

[florige]

What was the polling off by, about 5 points?

Every poll was off. I don't get it!

[Chinook]

One behalf of the rest of the world, America, You are a pack of dipshits

#HateUsCauseYouAintUs

International markets crashing over this; meanwhile 9/10 Americans don't even know or care who the PM of Australia is.

If anything, I think this election shows that the "free world" grossly overrepresents itself in relation to the actual population. Hence why Brexit happened. Instead of doubling down, people would be wise to actually start talking to people who disagree with them again and not just folks liking their posts or retweeting them.

[boutons_deux]

"why Brexit happened"

the Brexit guy, who has now resigned his position, admitted that the Brexit campaign was based on lies, and appeal to base emotions of bigotry, xenophobia, racism.

Now that UK is looking at the results of Brexit "factually, financially", it really sucks, and as always, it sucks worst for the poor white people who voted for Brexit.

[ducks]

Market Indicator Gives Trump An 86% Chance Of Winning The Election
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-04/market-indicator-gives-trump-86-chance-winning-election

[ducks]

Quit doing this to yourself ducks. :lol

[ducks]

damm should drop 10k on trump

[Spurtacular]

For ducks since he likes to post shit like this. For you baby girl.
http://www.trbimg.com/img-58212403/turbine/la-awigglesworth-1478566933-snap-photo/750/750x422

:lol I remember that free concert.

[DMC]

:lol Reck the welcher

[Reck]

:lol Reck the welcher

Still sore? Poor you.